Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for BAVI-26
in Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Taiwan, China

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.57 FOR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED AT 40N 130E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
BAVI (2609) HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED AT 40N, 130E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. HOWEVER,
ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 40N 130E
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
30KT 400NM SOUTH 200NM NORTH =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 40.3N 129.5E FAIR
MOVE ENE 25KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 150900UTC 42.9N 136.2E 45NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 152100UTC 46.6N 140.9E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.56 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 39.7N, 128.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 39.7N 128.0E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 150600UTC 42.0N 135.0E 45NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 151800UTC 45.4N 140.0E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 992 HPA
AT 39.7N 128.0E SEA OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 42.0N 135.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 45.4N 140.0E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
986 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 39.5N 125.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 150300UTC 41.5N 133.1E 45NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 151500UTC 44.2N 138.6E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.55 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 38.8N, 124.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT03. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 38.8N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 150000UTC 41.1N 132.0E 45NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW
24HF 151200UTC 43.6N 137.5E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 992 HPA
AT 38.8N 124.5E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 41.1N 132.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 43.6N 137.5E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 38.2N 123.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 142100UTC 40.4N 130.1E 45NM 70%
MOVE ENE 28KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 150900UTC 43.2N 136.3E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.54 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 37.4N, 122.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT09. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 37.4N 122.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 141800UTC 39.4N 128.7E 45NM 70%
MOVE ENE 25KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 150600UTC 42.4N 135.1E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 992 HPA
AT 37.4N 122.9E YELLOW SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 39.4N 128.7E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 42.4N 135.1E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 36.7N 122.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 141500UTC 39.1N 126.9E 45NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 150300UTC 41.4N 133.8E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.53 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 36.4N, 121.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. HOWEVER, ITS STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT18. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT18 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT18. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 36.4N 121.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 141200UTC 38.7N 125.0E 45NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 150000UTC 41.8N 132.7E 65NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 992 HPA
AT 36.4N 121.4E YELLOW SEA MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 38.7N 125.0E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 41.8N 132.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 36.0N 120.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 140900UTC 39.1N 124.6E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 142100UTC 41.8N 131.7E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.52 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 35.6N, 119.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT18. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 992 HPA
AT 35.6N 119.5E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 38.4N 122.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 41.1N 129.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 35.6N 119.5E FAIR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 325NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 140600UTC 38.4N 122.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 141800UTC 41.1N 129.8E 57NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 35.3N 119.0E FAIR
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 140300UTC 37.7N 122.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 141500UTC 40.1N 126.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 151200UTC 44.3N 137.6E 115NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.51 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 34.8N, 118.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 34.8N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 140000UTC 37.0N 121.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 141200UTC 39.5N 124.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 151200UTC 44.3N 137.6E 115NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 992 HPA
AT 34.8N 118.6E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 37.0N 121.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 39.5N 124.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 44.3N 137.6E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 34.6N 118.2E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 132100UTC 36.4N 120.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 140900UTC 38.6N 124.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 150600UTC 42.8N 135.1E 115NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.50 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 34.1N, 118.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 34.1N 118.2E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131800UTC 35.9N 119.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 140600UTC 38.3N 122.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 150600UTC 42.8N 135.1E 115NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 990 HPA
AT 34.1N 118.2E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 35.9N 119.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 38.3N 122.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 42.8N 135.1E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 33.9N 118.1E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131500UTC 35.1N 119.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 140300UTC 37.2N 121.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 150000UTC 40.7N 131.9E 115NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.49 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 33.5N, 118.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 33.5N 118.0E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 131200UTC 34.6N 118.7E 30NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 140000UTC 36.4N 120.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 150000UTC 40.7N 131.9E 115NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 990 HPA
AT 33.5N 118.0E NORTH CHINA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 34.6N 118.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 36.4N 120.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 40.7N 131.9E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 33.2N 117.9E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130900UTC 34.4N 118.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 132100UTC 35.8N 120.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 141800UTC 39.4N 128.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 151800UTC 45.4N 139.8E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.48 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 32.5N, 117.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 32.5N 117.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130600UTC 33.9N 118.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 131800UTC 35.4N 119.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 141800UTC 39.4N 128.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 151800UTC 45.4N 139.8E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121800
WARNING 121800.
WARNING VALID 131800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 990 HPA
AT 32.5N 117.9E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 33.9N 118.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 35.4N 119.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 39.4N 128.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 45.4N 139.8E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121500UTC 32.3N 118.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 425NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130300UTC 33.8N 117.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 131500UTC 35.2N 119.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 141200UTC 38.8N 124.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 151200UTC 44.2N 137.9E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.47 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 31.9N, 118.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT60. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND WEAK VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 121200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121200UTC 31.9N 118.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 425NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 130000UTC 33.3N 117.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 131200UTC 34.6N 118.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 141200UTC 38.8N 124.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 151200UTC 44.2N 137.9E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 121200
WARNING 121200.
WARNING VALID 131200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 985 HPA
AT 31.9N 118.2E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 33.3N 117.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 34.6N 118.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 38.8N 124.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 44.2N 137.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120900UTC 31.3N 118.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 425NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 122100UTC 32.9N 117.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 130900UTC 34.1N 118.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 140600UTC 37.9N 121.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.46 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 31.3N, 119.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND WEAK VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120600UTC 31.3N 119.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 425NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 121800UTC 32.5N 117.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 130600UTC 33.9N 117.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 140600UTC 37.9N 121.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120600
WARNING 120600.
WARNING VALID 130600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
985 HPA
AT 31.3N 119.0E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 425 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 32.5N 117.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 33.9N 117.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 37.9N 121.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120300UTC 30.7N 119.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 425NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 121500UTC 32.1N 117.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130300UTC 33.5N 117.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 140000UTC 36.2N 120.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 150000UTC 40.8N 131.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 120146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 120000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BAVI (2609) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0
N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE
HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC
THREE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (33.0 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
THREE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (36.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.45 FOR STS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BAVI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 29.5N, 119.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
975HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND WEAK VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 120000
WARNING 120000.
WARNING VALID 130000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 975 HPA
AT 29.5N 119.5E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 450 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 31.6N 118.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 33.2N 117.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 36.2N 120.4E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 40.8N 131.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 29.5N 119.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 450NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 121200UTC 31.6N 118.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 130000UTC 33.2N 117.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 140000UTC 36.2N 120.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 150000UTC 40.8N 131.0E 120NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 112100
WARNING 112100.
WARNING VALID 122100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 965
HPA
AT 29.2N 119.8E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 31.3N 118.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 32.7N 117.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2609 BAVI (2609) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 29.2N 119.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 120NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 400NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 120900UTC 31.3N 118.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 122100UTC 32.7N 117.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 131800UTC 35.4N 119.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 141800UTC 39.6N 126.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 151800UTC 46.5N 140.1E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 111946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 111800 UTC, TYPHOON BAVI (2609) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO
POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC
THREE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (32.4 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (35.3 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.44 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 28.7N, 120.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
960HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST
IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND WEAK VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 960 HPA
AT 28.7N 120.4E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 30.9N 118.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 32.3N 118.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 35.4N 119.2E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 39.6N 126.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 46.5N 140.1E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
988 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 28.7N 120.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120600UTC 30.9N 118.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 121800UTC 32.3N 118.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 131800UTC 35.4N 119.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 141800UTC 39.6N 126.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 151800UTC 46.5N 140.1E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 111646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 111500 UTC, TYPHOON BAVI (2609) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (28.0 N) ONE TWO ONE
POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC
THREE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (31.9 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (35.0 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 28.0N 121.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120300UTC 30.2N 119.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 121500UTC 31.7N 118.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 131200UTC 34.7N 118.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 141200UTC 38.8N 122.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 151200UTC 45.1N 136.9E 175NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 111500
WARNING 111500.
WARNING VALID 121500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 955 HPA
AT 28.0N 121.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 30.2N 119.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 31.7N 118.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 111346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 111200 UTC, TYPHOON BAVI (2609) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N) ONE TWO ONE
POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC
THREE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (31.5 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (34.6 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.43 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 27.6N, 122.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT06. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT36 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 950 HPA
AT 27.6N 122.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 350
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 29.7N 119.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 31.4N 118.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 34.7N 118.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 38.8N 122.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 45.1N 136.9E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 27.6N 122.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 240NM EAST 90NM WEST
30KT 400NM SOUTHEAST 350NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 120000UTC 29.7N 119.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 121200UTC 31.4N 118.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 131200UTC 34.7N 118.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 141200UTC 38.8N 122.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 151200UTC 45.1N 136.9E 175NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 111046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 110900 UTC, TYPHOON BAVI (2609) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (27.1 N) ONE TWO TWO
POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (34.2 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 950 HPA
AT 27.1N 122.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 29.0N 120.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 31.0N 118.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 27.1N 122.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 300NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 112100UTC 29.0N 120.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 120900UTC 31.0N 118.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 130600UTC 33.7N 117.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 140600UTC 37.1N 120.4E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 110746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 110600 UTC, TYPHOON BAVI (2609) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (26.6 N) ONE TWO THREE
POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC
THREE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (33.9 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.42 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 26.7N, 123.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT21. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 110600
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 950 HPA
AT 26.7N 123.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 28.3N 120.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 30.6N 118.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 33.7N 117.8E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 37.1N 120.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 26.7N 123.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 240NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 111800UTC 28.3N 120.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 120600UTC 30.6N 118.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 130600UTC 33.7N 117.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 140600UTC 37.1N 120.4E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 110300
WARNING 110300.
WARNING VALID 120300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 950 HPA
AT 25.8N 124.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 27.8N 121.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 30.0N 119.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 25.8N 124.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 111500UTC 27.8N 121.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 120300UTC 30.0N 119.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 130000UTC 33.0N 117.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 140000UTC 36.1N 119.1E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 110146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 110000 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON BAVI (2609) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (25.0 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC
TWO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (29.8 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC
THREE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (33.3 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.41 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 25.0N, 124.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE
OF ITS INTENSITY HAS CAUSED IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT18. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT15 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 110000
WARNING 110000.
WARNING VALID 120000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 945 HPA
AT 25.0N 124.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.3N 121.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 29.4N 119.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 33.0N 117.8E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 36.1N 119.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 25.0N 124.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 111200UTC 27.3N 121.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 120000UTC 29.4N 119.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 130000UTC 33.0N 117.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 140000UTC 36.1N 119.1E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 102246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

SEVERE TYPHOON BAVI (2609) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 102100 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON BAVI (2609) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (24.2 N) ONE TWO
FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 112100 UTC
TWO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (29.2 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC
THREE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (32.9 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 102100
WARNING 102100.
WARNING VALID 112100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 940 HPA
AT 24.2N 125.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 26.8N 122.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 29.0N 120.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 24.2N 125.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 110900UTC 26.8N 122.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 112100UTC 29.0N 120.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 121800UTC 32.0N 117.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 131800UTC 35.1N 118.3E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 23.8N 125.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 125.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.2N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 30.5N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 32.4N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 34.1N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 124.7E. 10JUL26. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND
112100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.40 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 23.7N, 125.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT
FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY HAS CAUSED IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 940 HPA
AT 23.7N 125.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 26.5N 123.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 28.4N 120.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 32.0N 117.9E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 35.1N 118.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 23.7N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 110600UTC 26.5N 123.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 111800UTC 28.4N 120.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 121800UTC 32.0N 117.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 131800UTC 35.1N 118.3E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 23.3N 125.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 110300UTC 25.7N 123.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 111500UTC 27.7N 121.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 121200UTC 30.9N 117.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 131200UTC 33.9N 117.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 101500
WARNING 101500.
WARNING VALID 111500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 940 HPA
AT 23.3N 125.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 25.7N 123.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 27.7N 121.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 101500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 260710133454
2026071012 09W BAVI 039 01 315 12 SATL RADR 030
T000 227N 1260E 080 R064 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 060 SW QD 160 NW QD R034 310 NE QD 320 SE QD 300 SW QD 270 NW QD
T012 249N 1241E 080 R064 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 010 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 310 SE QD 290 SW QD 230 NW QD
T024 271N 1218E 080 R064 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 300 SE QD 250 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 293N 1196E 050 R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 300 SE QD 130 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 313N 1182E 030
T060 329N 1178E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
060HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 039
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 039
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 126.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 126.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.9N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.1N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 29.3N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 31.3N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.9N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 125.5E.
10JUL26. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 101200Z IS 958 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
//
0926062618 39N1675E 15
0926062700 45N1676E 15
0926062706 49N1679E 15
0926062712 54N1677E 15
0926062718 58N1671E 15
0926062800 61N1665E 25
0926062806 67N1663E 25
0926062812 78N1663E 25
0926062818 88N1667E 25
0926062900 91N1678E 25
0926062906 90N1663E 20
0926062912 90N1659E 20
0926062918 88N1656E 20
0926063000 85N1652E 20
0926063006 86N1649E 20
0926063012 86N1646E 20
0926063018 86N1643E 20
0926070100 88N1636E 25
0926070106 92N1630E 30
0926070112 97N1624E 35
0926070118 104N1614E 40
0926070200 111N1602E 45
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070906 187N1291E 100
0926070906 187N1291E 100
0926070906 187N1291E 100
0926070912 192N1288E 95
0926070912 192N1288E 95
0926070912 192N1288E 95
0926070918 201N1282E 85
0926070918 201N1282E 85
0926070918 201N1282E 85
0926071000 208N1273E 75
0926071000 208N1273E 75
0926071000 208N1273E 75
0926071006 219N1269E 75
0926071006 219N1269E 75
0926071006 219N1269E 75
0926071012 227N1260E 80
0926071012 227N1260E 80
0926071012 227N1260E 80
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.39 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 22.8N, 126.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT09 DUE TO THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 22.8N 126.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 110000UTC 25.1N 124.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 111200UTC 27.2N 121.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 121200UTC 30.9N 117.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 131200UTC 33.9N 117.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 22.8N 126.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 25.1N 124.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.2N 121.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 30.9N 117.7E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 33.9N 117.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 100900
WARNING 100900.
WARNING VALID 110900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 22.3N 126.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 24.5N 124.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 26.5N 122.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 22.3N 126.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 102100UTC 24.5N 124.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 110900UTC 26.5N 122.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 120600UTC 30.0N 118.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 130600UTC 33.0N 116.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 140600UTC 36.7N 118.4E 125NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 100900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 260710073407
2026071006 09W BAVI 038 01 340 12 SATL 030
T000 219N 1269E 075 R064 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 115 NW QD R050 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD R034 310 NE QD 320 SE QD 300 SW QD 280 NW QD
T012 240N 1252E 075 R064 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 340 SE QD 290 SW QD 260 NW QD
T024 261N 1231E 075 R064 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 340 SE QD 280 SW QD 230 NW QD
T036 284N 1207E 065 R064 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 340 SE QD 210 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 305N 1187E 045 R034 280 NE QD 320 SE QD 080 SW QD 020 NW QD
T060 322N 1176E 030
T072 335N 1173E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
060HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 038
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 038
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.9N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 126.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.0N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.1N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.4N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 30.5N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 32.2N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 33.5N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 126.5E.
10JUL26. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
//
0926062618 39N1675E 15
0926062700 45N1676E 15
0926062706 49N1679E 15
0926062712 54N1677E 15
0926062718 58N1671E 15
0926062800 61N1665E 25
0926062806 67N1663E 25
0926062812 78N1663E 25
0926062818 88N1667E 25
0926062900 91N1678E 25
0926062906 90N1663E 20
0926062912 90N1659E 20
0926062918 88N1656E 20
0926063000 85N1652E 20
0926063006 86N1649E 20
0926063012 86N1646E 20
0926063018 86N1643E 20
0926070100 88N1636E 25
0926070106 92N1630E 30
0926070112 97N1624E 35
0926070118 104N1614E 40
0926070200 111N1602E 45
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070906 187N1291E 100
0926070906 187N1291E 100
0926070906 187N1291E 100
0926070912 192N1288E 95
0926070912 192N1288E 95
0926070912 192N1288E 95
0926070918 201N1282E 85
0926070918 201N1282E 85
0926070918 201N1282E 85
0926071000 208N1273E 75
0926071000 208N1273E 75
0926071000 208N1273E 75
0926071006 219N1269E 75
0926071006 219N1269E 75
0926071006 219N1269E 75
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.38 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 21.8N, 127.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
REDUCTION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT36 DUE TO
ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS
CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 21.8N 127.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 180NM
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 101800UTC 23.9N 125.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 110600UTC 26.2N 123.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 120600UTC 30.0N 118.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 130600UTC 33.0N 116.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 140600UTC 36.7N 118.4E 125NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 100600
WARNING 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 21.8N 127.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 23.9N 125.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 26.2N 123.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 30.0N 118.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 33.0N 116.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 36.7N 118.4E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 100300
WARNING 100300.
WARNING VALID 110300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 20.8N 127.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 375
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 23.5N 125.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 25.7N 123.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 20.8N 127.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 375NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 101500UTC 23.5N 125.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 110300UTC 25.7N 123.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 120000UTC 28.8N 119.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 130000UTC 32.4N 116.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 140000UTC 34.6N 117.8E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 20.6N, 127.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO DEVELOP
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, LOWER SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96
DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 20.6N 127.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM NORTHEAST 375NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 101200UTC 23.0N 126.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 110000UTC 25.2N 124.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 120000UTC 28.8N 119.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 130000UTC 32.4N 116.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 140000UTC 34.6N 117.8E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 20.6N 127.3E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 375
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 23.0N 126.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 25.2N 124.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 28.8N 119.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 32.4N 116.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 34.6N 117.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 092100
WARNING 092100.
WARNING VALID 102100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 20.5N 127.6E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 22.4N 126.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 24.5N 124.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 20.5N 127.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 100900UTC 22.4N 126.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 102100UTC 24.5N 124.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 111800UTC 27.7N 120.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 121800UTC 31.6N 117.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 131800UTC 34.3N 117.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 091800 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 20.0N, 128.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY HAS
CAUSED IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.36 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 20.0N, 128.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY HAS
CAUSED IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 091800
WARNING 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 20.0N 128.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 21.9N 126.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 24.0N 125.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 27.7N 120.0E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 31.6N 117.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 34.3N 117.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 20.0N 128.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 100600UTC 21.9N 126.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 101800UTC 24.0N 125.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 111800UTC 27.7N 120.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 121800UTC 31.6N 117.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 131800UTC 34.3N 117.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 091500
WARNING 091500.
WARNING VALID 101500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 930 HPA
AT 19.4N 128.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 21.3N 127.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 23.2N 125.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 19.4N 128.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 400NM
FORECAST
12HF 100300UTC 21.3N 127.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 101500UTC 23.2N 125.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 111200UTC 26.6N 121.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 121200UTC 30.6N 116.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 131200UTC 33.2N 116.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 260709133445
2026070912 09W BAVI 035 01 340 05 SATL 060
T000 192N 1288E 100 R064 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD R050 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 180 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 280 SE QD 270 SW QD 280 NW QD
T012 208N 1275E 095 R064 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 140 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 270 SE QD 270 SW QD 270 NW QD
T024 227N 1260E 090 R064 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 280 SE QD 280 SW QD 260 NW QD
T036 247N 1238E 090 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 270 SE QD 290 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 267N 1214E 080 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 280 SE QD 200 SW QD 090 NW QD
T060 288N 1192E 055 R050 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 240 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 065 NW QD
T072 307N 1178E 035 R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T096 336N 1171E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 035
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 128.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 128.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.8N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.7N 126.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.7N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.7N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.8N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 30.7N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 33.6N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 128.5E.
09JUL26. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 091200Z IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
//
0926062618 39N1675E 15
0926062700 45N1676E 15
0926062706 49N1679E 15
0926062712 54N1677E 15
0926062718 58N1671E 15
0926062800 61N1665E 25
0926062806 67N1663E 25
0926062812 78N1663E 25
0926062818 88N1667E 25
0926062900 91N1678E 25
0926062906 90N1663E 20
0926062912 90N1659E 20
0926062918 88N1656E 20
0926063000 85N1652E 20
0926063006 86N1649E 20
0926063012 86N1646E 20
0926063018 86N1643E 20
0926070100 88N1636E 25
0926070106 92N1630E 30
0926070112 97N1624E 35
0926070118 104N1614E 40
0926070200 111N1602E 45
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070906 187N1290E 105
0926070906 187N1290E 105
0926070906 187N1290E 105
0926070912 192N1288E 100
0926070912 192N1288E 100
0926070912 192N1288E 100


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.35 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 18.8N, 128.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 90KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY HAS
CAUSED IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE
CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT60. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 930 HPA
AT 18.8N 128.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 21.0N 127.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 22.7N 125.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
930 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 26.6N 121.3E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 30.6N 116.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 33.2N 116.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 18.8N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 100000UTC 21.0N 127.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 101200UTC 22.7N 125.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 111200UTC 26.6N 121.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 121200UTC 30.6N 116.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 131200UTC 33.2N 116.0E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 090900
WARNING 090900.
WARNING VALID 100900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 18.7N 128.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 20.5N 127.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 22.3N 126.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 18.7N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 092100UTC 20.5N 127.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 100900UTC 22.3N 126.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 110600UTC 26.0N 122.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 120600UTC 30.0N 118.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 130600UTC 32.9N 116.3E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 260709075734
2026070906 09W BAVI 034 01 300 10 SATL XTRP 050
T000 187N 1290E 110 R064 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD R050 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 280 SE QD 270 SW QD 280 NW QD
T012 201N 1276E 105 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 270 SE QD 270 SW QD 250 NW QD
T024 219N 1261E 105 R064 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 260 SE QD 250 SW QD 260 NW QD
T036 239N 1243E 100 R064 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 270 SE QD 260 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 260N 1221E 095 R064 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 290 SE QD 230 SW QD 160 NW QD
T060 281N 1198E 075 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 280 SE QD 145 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 302N 1181E 050 R050 065 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 332N 1172E 030
T120 364N 1202E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 034
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.1N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.9N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.9N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.0N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.1N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 30.2N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 33.2N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 36.4N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 128.6E.
09JUL26. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 473 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
//
0926062618 39N1675E 15
0926062700 45N1676E 15
0926062706 49N1679E 15
0926062712 54N1677E 15
0926062718 58N1671E 15
0926062800 61N1665E 25
0926062806 67N1663E 25
0926062812 78N1663E 25
0926062818 88N1667E 25
0926062900 91N1678E 25
0926062906 90N1663E 20
0926062912 90N1659E 20
0926062918 88N1656E 20
0926063000 85N1652E 20
0926063006 86N1649E 20
0926063012 86N1646E 20
0926063018 86N1643E 20
0926070100 88N1636E 25
0926070106 92N1630E 30
0926070112 97N1624E 35
0926070118 104N1614E 40
0926070200 111N1602E 45
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070618 159N1412E 135
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070700 162N1399E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070706 165N1384E 125
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070712 167N1367E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070718 167N1353E 130
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070800 169N1341E 135
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070806 169N1330E 130
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070812 173N1319E 125
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070818 176N1308E 115
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070900 182N1299E 110
0926070906 187N1290E 110
0926070906 187N1290E 110
0926070906 187N1290E 110
NNNN


0000718800
00001


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 18.7N, 129.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 95KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY HAS CAUSED IT TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT60. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT36
DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 090600
WARNING 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 930 HPA
AT 18.7N 129.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 20.2N 128.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 21.9N 126.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 26.0N 122.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 30.0N 118.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 32.9N 116.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 18.7N 129.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 091800UTC 20.2N 128.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 100600UTC 21.9N 126.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 110600UTC 26.0N 122.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 120600UTC 30.0N 118.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 130600UTC 32.9N 116.3E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 090300
WARNING 090300.
WARNING VALID 100300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 930 HPA
AT 18.6N 129.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 19.9N 128.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 21.5N 126.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 18.6N 129.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 091500UTC 19.9N 128.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 100300UTC 21.5N 126.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 110000UTC 24.9N 123.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 120000UTC 28.5N 118.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
93HF 130000UTC 31.8N 115.5E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 18.3N, 130.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR
MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 18.3N 130.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 091200UTC 19.5N 128.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 100000UTC 21.0N 127.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 110000UTC 24.9N 123.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 120000UTC 28.5N 118.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 130000UTC 31.8N 115.5E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 090000
WARNING 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 18.3N 130.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 19.5N 128.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 21.0N 127.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 24.9N 123.3E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 28.5N 118.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 31.8N 115.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 082100
WARNING 082100.
WARNING VALID 092100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 17.9N 130.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 19.1N 129.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 20.6N 127.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 17.9N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 090900UTC 19.1N 129.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 092100UTC 20.6N 127.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 101800UTC 23.6N 124.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 111800UTC 27.3N 119.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
93HF 121800UTC 31.0N 115.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 131800UTC 33.0N 114.6E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 082127
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 32
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
Issued by National Weather Service Honolulu HI
717 AM ChST Thu Jul 09 2026

...TYPHOON BAVI MOVING INTO THE WEST PACIFIC SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF OKINAWA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.9N 130.4E

About 770 miles northwest of Yap
About 780 miles north-northwest of Koror
About 1000 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 1010 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 1030 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 1030 miles west-northwest of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...130 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...285 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 17.9 degrees North and Longitude
130.4 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the northwest with
little change in forward speed through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are 130 mph. Bavi is forecast to slowly
weaken through Friday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
120 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 310 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Bavi.

$$

Wroe


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 17.7N, 130.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 17.7N 130.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 18.8N 129.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 20.1N 127.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 23.6N 124.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 27.3N 119.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 31.0N 115.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 33.0N 114.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 17.7N 130.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 090600UTC 18.8N 129.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 091800UTC 20.1N 127.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 101800UTC 23.6N 124.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 111800UTC 27.3N 119.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 121800UTC 31.0N 115.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 131800UTC 33.0N 114.6E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 081827
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 31
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
Issued by National Weather Service Honolulu HI
426 AM ChST Thu Jul 09 2026

...TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES MOVING WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.6N 131.2E

About 720 miles northwest of Yap
About 740 miles north-northwest of Koror
About 940 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 960 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 970 miles west of Tinian
About 980 miles west of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...145 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 17.6 degrees North and Longitude 131.2
degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. It is
expected to make a turn toward the northwest with a slight
decrease in forward speed today, exiting the region west of
130E late today.

Maximum sustained winds are 145 mph. Bavi is forecast to slowly
weaken through Friday as it makes a turn to the northwest,
roughly toward Taiwan.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 125
miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 310 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST early Thursday morning.

$$

WROE


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 17.5N 131.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 18.5N 129.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 19.8N 128.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 17.5N 131.4E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 090300UTC 18.5N 129.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 091500UTC 19.8N 128.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 101200UTC 22.7N 125.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 111200UTC 26.5N 120.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
93HF 121200UTC 30.5N 116.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 131200UTC 32.6N 115.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 17.4N, 131.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 17.4N 131.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 18.1N 130.2E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 19.4N 128.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 22.7N 125.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 26.5N 120.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 30.5N 116.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 32.6N 115.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 17.4N 131.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 090000UTC 18.1N 130.2E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 091200UTC 19.4N 128.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 101200UTC 22.7N 125.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 111200UTC 26.5N 120.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 121200UTC 30.5N 116.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 131200UTC 32.6N 115.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 080900
WARNING 080900.
WARNING VALID 090900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 17.2N 132.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 17.9N 130.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 19.0N 129.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 17.2N 132.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 082100UTC 17.9N 130.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 090900UTC 19.0N 129.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 100600UTC 21.7N 126.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 110600UTC 25.5N 122.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 120600UTC 29.5N 117.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 130600UTC 31.8N 115.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 080939
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 30
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
739 PM ChST Wed Jul 8 2026

...SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES MOVING WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.0N 132.5E

About 640 miles northwest of Yap
About 680 miles north of Koror
About 855 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 870 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 880 miles west of Tinian
About 885 miles west of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...155 mph
Present movement...west...270 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 17.0 degrees North and Longitude
132.5 degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 13 mph. It is expected
to make a turn toward the northwest with a slight decrease in
forward speed through Thursday, potentially exiting the region
west of 130E around late Thursday morning to early Thursday
afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 155 mph. Bavi is forecast to
weaken through Thursday. Bavi is forecast to maintain this intensity
through tonight, then weaken through Friday as it makes a turn to
the northwest, roughly toward Taiwan.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
115 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 300 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Thursday morning.

$$

IC/DD


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 16.9N, 133.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT THE CHINESE MAINLAND BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 16.9N 133.0E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 081800UTC 17.6N 131.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 090600UTC 18.8N 129.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 100600UTC 21.7N 126.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 110600UTC 25.5N 122.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 120600UTC 29.5N 117.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 130600UTC 31.8N 115.0E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 080600
WARNING 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 16.9N 133.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 17.6N 131.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 18.8N 129.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 21.7N 126.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 25.5N 122.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 29.5N 117.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 31.8N 115.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 080402
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 29
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
202 PM ChST Wed Jul 8 2026

...SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES MOVING WEST OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.0N 133.6E

About 600 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 670 miles north of Koror
About 785 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 800 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 800 miles west of Agrihan
About 810 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 815 miles west of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...155 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 17.0 degrees North and Longitude 133.6
degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 14 mph. It is expected to
make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with a slight
decrease in forward speed through Thursday, potentially exiting
the region west of 130E around late Thursday morning to early
Thursday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 155 mph. Bavi is
forecast to maintain this intensity through tonight, then weaken
through Friday as it makes a turn to the northwest, roughly toward
Taiwan.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
105 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 310 miles to the north and up to 265 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 080300
WARNING 080300.
WARNING VALID 090300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 16.9N 133.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 17.4N 131.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 18.5N 129.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 16.9N 133.5E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 150NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 081500UTC 17.4N 131.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 090300UTC 18.5N 129.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 100000UTC 20.8N 126.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 110000UTC 24.7N 123.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 120000UTC 28.5N 118.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
117HF 130000UTC 31.3N 115.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 17.0N, 134.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME
DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 17.0N 134.1E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 140NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 081200UTC 17.2N 131.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 090000UTC 18.1N 130.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 100000UTC 20.8N 126.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 110000UTC 24.7N 123.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 120000UTC 28.5N 118.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
120HF 130000UTC 31.3N 115.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 080000
WARNING 080000.
WARNING VALID 090000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 17.0N 134.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 17.2N 131.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 18.1N 130.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 20.8N 126.9E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 24.7N 123.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 28.5N 118.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 31.3N 115.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 072100
WARNING 072100.
WARNING VALID 082100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 16.9N 134.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 17.1N 132.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 17.8N 130.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 16.9N 134.9E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 140NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 080900UTC 17.1N 132.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 082100UTC 17.8N 130.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 091800UTC 20.3N 127.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 101800UTC 24.1N 124.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 111800UTC 28.0N 119.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 121800UTC 31.8N 115.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 072130
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 28
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
730 AM ChST Wed Jul 8 2026

...SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.9N 134.7E

About 560 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 660 miles north of Koror
About 710 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 725 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 735 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 740 miles west-northwest of Saipan

Maximum sustained winds...150 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 16.9 degrees North and Longitude 134.7
degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 14 mph. Bavi is expected
to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with a slight
decrease in forward speed through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 150 mph. Bavi is forecast to
maintain this intensity through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
105 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 310 miles to the north and up to 265 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Whisnant


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 135.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME
OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 16.8N 135.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 17.0N 133.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 17.6N 131.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 20.3N 127.8E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 24.1N 124.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 28.0N 119.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 31.8N 115.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 16.8N 135.3E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 140NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 080600UTC 17.0N 133.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 081800UTC 17.6N 131.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 091800UTC 20.3N 127.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 101800UTC 24.1N 124.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 111800UTC 28.0N 119.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 121800UTC 31.8N 115.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 071605
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 27
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
205 AM ChST Wed Jul 8 2026

...BAVI UPGRADED TO SUPER TYPHOON ONCE AGAIN AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.9N 136.1E

About 530 miles north-northwest of Yap
About 625 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 635 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 645 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 650 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 670 miles north of Koror

Maximum sustained winds...150 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 20 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 16.9 degrees North and Longitude 136.1 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west at 20 mph. It is expected to make a slight
turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 150 mph. Bavi is forecast
to intensify through tonight and then maintain its strength Wednesday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 105 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
300 miles to the north and up to 265 miles to the south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM ChST Thursday morning.

$$

Montvila


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 16.8N 136.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 16.9N 133.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 17.4N 131.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 16.8N 136.0E GOOD
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 140NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 080300UTC 16.9N 133.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 081500UTC 17.4N 131.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 091200UTC 19.6N 128.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 101200UTC 22.9N 125.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 111200UTC 26.8N 120.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
117HF 121200UTC 31.1N 116.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 16.8N, 136.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER
LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 16.8N 136.7E GOOD
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 140NM
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
12HF 080000UTC 16.8N 134.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 081200UTC 17.2N 132.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 091200UTC 19.6N 128.6E 55NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 101200UTC 22.9N 125.2E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 111200UTC 26.8N 120.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
120HF 121200UTC 31.1N 116.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 16.8N 136.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 16.8N 134.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 17.2N 132.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 19.6N 128.6E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 22.9N 125.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 26.8N 120.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 31.1N 116.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 070900
WARNING 070900.
WARNING VALID 080900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 16.8N 137.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 16.8N 134.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 17.1N 132.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 16.8N 137.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 072100UTC 16.8N 134.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 080900UTC 17.1N 132.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 090600UTC 19.0N 129.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 100600UTC 22.2N 126.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 110600UTC 26.3N 121.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
117HF 120600UTC 30.7N 117.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 070918
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 26
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
718 PM ChST Tue Jul 7 2026

...TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST AND AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.6N 137.7E

About 475 miles north-northwest of Ulithi
About 490 miles north of Yap
About 520 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 530 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 540 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 545 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 675 miles north-northeast of Koror

Maximum sustained winds...145 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 17 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was located
near Latitude 16.6 degrees North and Longitude 137.7 degrees East.
Bavi is moving west at 17 mph. It is expected to maintain this
general course with a slight decrease in forward speed through
Wednesday as it heads toward the Ryukyu Islands.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 145 mph. Bavi is forecast to
intensify through Wednesday to then maintain said intensity through at
least Wednesday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 105 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 300
miles to the north and up to 230 miles to the south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan, Guam at 200 AM ChST early Wednesday morning.

$$

Montvila


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 16.5N, 138.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME
OBSCURE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH
SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 16.5N 138.4E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 071800UTC 16.7N 135.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 080600UTC 17.1N 133.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 090600UTC 19.0N 129.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 100600UTC 22.2N 126.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 110600UTC 26.3N 121.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
120HF 120600UTC 30.7N 117.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 16.5N 138.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 16.7N 135.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 17.1N 133.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 19.0N 129.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 22.2N 126.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 26.3N 121.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 30.7N 117.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 16.3N 139.2E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 071500UTC 16.6N 136.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 080300UTC 17.0N 133.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 090000UTC 18.4N 130.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 100000UTC 21.3N 126.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
93HF 110000UTC 25.4N 122.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
117HF 120000UTC 29.8N 117.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 070300
WARNING 070300.
WARNING VALID 080300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 16.3N 139.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 16.6N 136.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 17.0N 133.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 070337
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 25
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
137 PM ChST Tue Jul 7 2026

...BAVI DOWNGRADED TO TYPHOON, AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.3N 139.2E

About 420 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 430 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 430 miles west of Anatahan
About 435 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 440 miles west-northwest of Saipan
About 445 miles west of Alamagan
About 450 miles west-southwest of Pagan
About 455 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 475 miles north of Yap
About 695 miles north-northeast of Koror

Maximum sustained winds...145 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...285 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 16.3 degrees North and Longitude
139.2 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the west with a slight
increase in forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 145 mph. Bavi is
forecast to intensify through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
115 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 300 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 16.2N, 140.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 16.2N 140.0E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 071200UTC 16.5N 136.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 080000UTC 16.9N 134.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 090000UTC 18.4N 130.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 100000UTC 21.3N 126.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 110000UTC 25.4N 122.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
120HF 120000UTC 29.8N 117.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 16.2N 140.0E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 16.5N 136.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 16.9N 134.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 18.4N 130.1E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 21.3N 126.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 25.4N 122.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 29.8N 117.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 062159
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 24
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
759 AM ChST Tue Jul 7 2026

...SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST,
AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...16.0N 140.4E

About 340 miles west-northwest of Guam
About 345 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 350 miles west of Anatahan
About 355 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 360 miles west of Saipan
About 375 miles west-southwest of Alamagan
About 385 miles west-southwest of Pagan
About 395 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 475 miles north-northeast of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...155 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 18 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 16.0 degrees North and Longitude
140.4 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 18 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the west with a slight
decrease in forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 155 mph. Bavi is
forecast to maintain this intensity through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
115 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 300 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 062100
WARNING 062100.
WARNING VALID 072100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 920 HPA
AT 16.1N 140.5E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 16.4N 137.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 16.8N 134.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 16.1N 140.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 070900UTC 16.4N 137.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 072100UTC 16.8N 134.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 081800UTC 18.0N 130.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 091800UTC 20.9N 127.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 101800UTC 24.7N 123.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 111800UTC 29.1N 118.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 062100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 260706202257
2026070618 09W BAVI 024 01 290 16 SATL 030
T000 159N 1411E 135 R064 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 245 SE QD 220 SW QD 260 NW QD
T012 162N 1382E 135 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 250 NW QD
T024 167N 1354E 135 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 230 SE QD 220 SW QD 250 NW QD
T036 173N 1329E 130 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 230 SE QD 240 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 182N 1308E 125 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 260 SE QD 260 SW QD 240 NW QD
T060 193N 1290E 120 R064 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 250 SE QD 260 SW QD 240 NW QD
T072 208N 1272E 115 R064 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 240 SE QD 250 SW QD 230 NW QD
T096 246N 1236E 100 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 250 SE QD 230 SW QD 190 NW QD
T120 288N 1192E 060 R050 080 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 220 SE QD 100 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 024
1. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.2N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.7N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.3N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.2N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.8N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.6N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.8N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 140.4E.
06JUL26. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 977 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 921 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 60 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
0926062618 39N1675E 15
0926062700 45N1676E 15
0926062706 49N1679E 15
0926062712 54N1677E 15
0926062718 58N1671E 15
0926062800 61N1665E 25
0926062806 67N1663E 25
0926062812 78N1663E 25
0926062818 88N1667E 25
0926062900 91N1678E 25
0926062906 90N1663E 20
0926062912 90N1659E 20
0926062918 88N1656E 20
0926063000 85N1652E 20
0926063006 86N1649E 20
0926063012 86N1646E 20
0926063018 86N1643E 20
0926070100 88N1636E 25
0926070106 92N1630E 30
0926070112 97N1624E 35
0926070118 104N1614E 40
0926070200 111N1602E 45
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070412 126N1502E 140
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070418 127N1495E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070500 129N1489E 135
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070506 134N1481E 145
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070512 137N1469E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070518 140N1461E 155
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070600 143N1450E 150
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070606 149N1440E 145
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070612 154N1427E 135
0926070618 159N1411E 135
0926070618 159N1411E 135
0926070618 159N1411E 135
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 061931
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Special Advisory Number 23A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
531 AM ChST Tue Jul 7 2026

...SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Watches and Warnings for the Marianas are canceled as of 5 AM ChST.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...15.9N 141.1E

About 300 miles northwest of Guam
About 300 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 305 miles west of Anatahan
About 310 miles west-northwest of Tinian
About 315 miles west of Saipan
About 335 miles west-southwest of Alamagan
About 345 miles west-southwest of Pagan
About 360 miles west-southwest of Agrihan
About 485 miles north-northeast of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...160 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 16 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 15.9 degrees North and Longitude 141.1 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 16 mph. It is expected to turn
slightly toward the west with little change in forward speed through
Wednesday. This general forecast track will take it through the open
Philippine Sea.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 160 mph. Bavi is forecast to
maintain this intensity through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 90 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
300 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 15.9N, 141.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
920HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT60. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND
HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 920 HPA
AT 15.9N 141.1E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 16.4N 138.3E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 16.8N 135.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 18.0N 130.9E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 20.9N 127.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 24.7N 123.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 29.1N 118.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 15.9N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 130NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 070600UTC 16.4N 138.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
24HF 071800UTC 16.8N 135.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 081800UTC 18.0N 130.9E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 091800UTC 20.9N 127.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 101800UTC 24.7N 123.3E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 111800UTC 29.1N 118.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 061552
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 23
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
152 AM ChST Tue Jul 7 2026

...SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS
COASTAL WATERS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Damaging winds of 39 mph or more
are diminishing but still continue, especially in western waters.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are diminishing but still persist.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Although the threat of sustained damaging winds is diminishing,
tropical storm force gusts of 39 mph or more will be possible, and
may become frequent with any heavier rain bands.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...15.6N 142.0E

About 235 miles northwest of Guam
About 240 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 245 miles west of Tinian
About 250 miles west of Saipan
About 250 miles west of Anatahan
About 290 miles west-southwest of Alamagan
About 305 miles southwest of Pagan
About 325 miles southwest of Agrihan
About 495 miles north-northeast of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...160 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 16 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 15.6 degrees North and Longitude 142.0 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 16 mph. It is expected to make
a slight turn toward the west with little change in forward speed
through Wednesday. As Bavi pulls farther away from the Marianas, the
watches and warnings will likely be canceled later this morning. This
forecast track will take Bavi through the Philippine Sea in the
general direction of Eastern China.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 160 mph. Bavi is forecast
to maintain this intensity today then begin weakening.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 90 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
300 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 061500
WARNING 061500.
WARNING VALID 071500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 15.8N 141.9E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 16.3N 139.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 16.7N 136.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 15.8N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 070300UTC 16.3N 139.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 071500UTC 16.7N 136.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
45HF 081200UTC 17.6N 132.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
69HF 091200UTC 19.8N 128.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 101200UTC 23.6N 124.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 111200UTC 27.6N 119.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 15.5N, 142.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP, HIGH SSTS,
WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 061301
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
1101 PM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

...SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS
COASTAL WATERS...

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Damaging winds of 39 mph or more are
occurring.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are occurring.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Although the threat of sustained damaging winds is diminishing,
tropical storm force gusts of 39 mph or more will be possible, and
may become frequent with any heavier rain bands.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...15.4N 142.7E

About 190 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 190 miles northwest of Guam
About 195 miles west of Tinian
About 205 miles west of Saipan
About 205 miles west-southwest of Anatahan
About 255 miles southwest of Alamagan
About 275 miles southwest of Pagan
About 305 miles southwest of Agrihan
About 515 miles northeast of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...165 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...300 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 15.4 degrees North and Longitude 142.7 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It is expected to
maintain this general course with a slight increase in forward speed
through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 165 mph. Bavi is forecast to
maintain this intensity through Tuesday night, then begin to weaken
slowly.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 70 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
320 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Tuesday morning followed by
an intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 15.5N 142.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 070000UTC 16.1N 139.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 071200UTC 16.5N 137.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 081200UTC 17.6N 132.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 091200UTC 19.8N 128.4E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 101200UTC 23.6N 124.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 111200UTC 27.6N 119.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 15.5N 142.8E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 16.1N 139.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 16.5N 137.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 17.6N 132.1E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 19.8N 128.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 23.6N 124.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.6N 119.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 060900
WARNING 060900.
WARNING VALID 070900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 15.1N 143.4E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 15.8N 140.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 16.3N 137.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 15.1N 143.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 062100UTC 15.8N 140.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 070900UTC 16.3N 137.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
45HF 080600UTC 17.2N 133.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
69HF 090600UTC 19.2N 128.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 100600UTC 22.7N 125.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 110600UTC 26.9N 121.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 060929
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 22
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
729 PM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

Resent to correct coordinates and advisory number.

...SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM MARIANAS
COASTAL WATERS, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Damaging winds of 39 mph or more
are occurring.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are occurring.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Although the threat of sustained damaging winds is diminishing,
tropical storm force gusts of 39 mph or more will be possible, and
may become frequent with any heavier rain bands.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...15.1N 143.3E

About 145 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 150 miles northwest of Guam
About 155 miles west of Tinian
About 160 miles west of Saipan
About 180 miles west-southwest of Anatahan
About 240 miles southwest of Alamagan
About 265 miles southwest of Pagan
About 295 miles south-southwest of Agrihan
About 525 miles northeast of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...165 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...300 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 15.1 degrees North and Longitude 143.3 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It is expected to
maintain this general course with a slight increase in forward speed
through Tuesday night. This forecast track will take Bavi away from
the Marianas and into the open Philippine Sea.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 165 mph. Bavi is
forecast to maintain this intensity through Tuesday night.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 70 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
320 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM ChST early Tuesday morning.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 060921 RRA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...DELAYED
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 22
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
721 PM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

Resent to correct the advisory number to 22.

...SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM MARIANAS
COASTAL WATERS, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Damaging winds of 39 mph or more are
occurring.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are occurring.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Although the threat of sustained damaging winds is diminishing,
tropical storm force gusts of 39 mph or more will be possible, and
may become frequent with any heavier rain bands.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.5N 144.4E

About 60 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 75 miles north-northwest of Guam
About 90 miles west-southwest of Tinian
About 100 miles west-southwest of Saipan
About 155 miles southwest of Anatahan
About 235 miles south-southwest of Alamagan
About 265 miles south-southwest of Pagan
About 305 miles south-southwest of Agrihan
About 550 miles northeast of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...175 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...285 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 14.5 degrees North and Longitude 144.4 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It is expected to
maintain this general course with a slight increase in forward speed
through Tuesday night. This forecast track will take Bavi away from
the Marianas and into the open Philippine Sea.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 175 mph. Bavi is forecast to remain
near this intensity through Tuesday night.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 70 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
310 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM ChST early Tuesday morning.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 060914
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
714 PM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

...SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM MARIANAS
COASTAL WATERS, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Damaging winds of 39 mph or more are
occurring.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are occurring.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Although the threat of sustained damaging winds is diminishing,
tropical storm force gusts of 39 mph or more will be possible, and
may become frequent with any heavier rain bands.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.5N 144.4E

About 60 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 75 miles north-northwest of Guam
About 90 miles west-southwest of Tinian
About 100 miles west-southwest of Saipan
About 155 miles southwest of Anatahan
About 235 miles south-southwest of Alamagan
About 265 miles south-southwest of Pagan
About 305 miles south-southwest of Agrihan
About 550 miles northeast of Yap

Maximum sustained winds...175 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...285 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 14.5 degrees North and Longitude 144.4 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It is expected to
maintain this general course with a slight increase in forward speed
through Tuesday night. This forecast track will take Bavi away from
the Marianas and into the open Philippine Sea.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 175 mph. Bavi is forecast to remain
near this intensity through Tuesday night.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 70 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
310 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM ChST early Tuesday morning.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 14.9N, 144.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 060703
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
503 PM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

...SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM MARIANAS
COASTAL WATERS, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters. Damaging winds of 39 mph
or more are occurring.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are occurring.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Although the threat of sustained damaging winds is diminishing,
tropical storm force gusts of 39 mph or more will be possible,
and may become frequent with any heavier rain bands.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...15.0N 143.9E

About 105 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 115 miles west of Tinian
About 120 miles north-northwest of Guam
About 120 miles west of Saipan
About 150 miles southwest of Anatahan
About 220 miles southwest of Alamagan
About 250 miles south-southwest of Pagan
About 285 miles south-southwest of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...175 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

At 400 PM CHST...0600 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 15.0 degrees North and Longitude 143.9
degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 15 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course with little change in
forward speed through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 175 mph. Bavi is forecast to
weaken slightly through tonight, however, remaining a Category 5
Super Typhoon through Wednesday as it continues to pull away from
the Marianas. With this, winds will gradually decrease, however,
tropical storm force conditions are expected to continue across
the Marianas overnight, departing sometime in the early morning
hours.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
70 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 310 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 1100 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 14.9N 144.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 061800UTC 15.7N 141.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 070600UTC 16.2N 138.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 080600UTC 17.2N 133.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 090600UTC 19.2N 128.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 100600UTC 22.7N 125.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 110600UTC 26.9N 121.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 14.9N 144.0E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 15.7N 141.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 16.2N 138.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 17.2N 133.0E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 19.2N 128.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 22.7N 125.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 26.9N 121.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 060300
WARNING 060300.
WARNING VALID 070300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 14.6N 144.6E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 15.5N 141.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 16.0N 138.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 14.6N 144.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 061500UTC 15.5N 141.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 070300UTC 16.0N 138.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
45HF 080000UTC 17.1N 134.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
69HF 090000UTC 18.7N 129.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 100000UTC 21.9N 126.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 110000UTC 26.0N 122.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 060336
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 21
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
136 PM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

...CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST,
EXITING WESTERN ROTA WATERS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74
mph or more are occurring.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are occurring.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible with
any northward shifts in the track.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.5N 144.4E

About 60 miles west-northwest of Rota
About 75 miles north-northwest of Guam
About 90 miles west-southwest of Tinian
About 100 miles west-southwest of Saipan
About 155 miles southwest of Anatahan
About 235 miles south-southwest of Alamagan
About 265 miles south-southwest of Pagan
About 305 miles south-southwest of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...175 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...285 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST, or 0300 UTC, the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 14.5 degrees North and Longitude
144.4 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It
is expected to maintain this general course with a slight
increase in forward speed through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to 175 mph. Bavi is
forecast to weaken slightly through tonight, however, remaining a
Category 5 Super Typhoon through Wednesday as it continues to
pull away from the Marianas. With this, winds will gradually
decrease across the Marianas, however, tropical storm force
conditions are expected to continue overnight, departing sometime
in the early morning hours.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
70 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 310 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 14.3N, 145.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
HIGH TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 060052 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
1052 AM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MARIANAS...
...EXTREME EYEWALL CONDITIONS RESUME OVER ROTA FOLLOWING EYE
PASSAGE...

Corrected present movement.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
An Extreme Wind Warning is in effect for Rota. Widespread
destructive winds in excess of 150 mph are occurring.

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or
more are occurring or imminent.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected imminently.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible with
any northward shifts in the track.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.4N 145.1E

About 20 miles north-northwest of Rota
About 55 miles southwest of Tinian
About 65 miles north-northeast of Guam
About 65 miles southwest of Saipan
About 140 miles south-southwest of Anatahan
About 225 miles south-southwest of Alamagan
About 260 miles south of Pagan
About 300 miles south of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...180 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CHST, 0000 UTC, the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 14.4 degrees North and Longitude 145.1
degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course with an increase in
forward speed through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 180 mph. Catastrophic winds
associated with the eyewall of Bavi are imminent or occurring over
the entirety of Rota through the next hour or two. Bavi is
forecast to remain near this intensity through Tuesday as it
passes through the Marianas today and pulls out to the west
Tuesday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
60 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 230 miles to the north and up to 185 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 500 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 14.3N 145.1E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 15.4N 142.5E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 16.0N 139.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 17.1N 134.2E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 18.7N 129.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 21.9N 126.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 26.0N 122.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 14.3N 145.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 061200UTC 15.4N 142.5E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 070000UTC 16.0N 139.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 080000UTC 17.1N 134.2E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 090000UTC 18.7N 129.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 100000UTC 21.9N 126.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 110000UTC 26.0N 122.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 060032
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
1032 AM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MARIANAS...
...EXTREME EYEWALL CONDITIONS RESUME OVER ROTA FOLLOWING EYE
PASSAGE...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
An Extreme Wind Warning is in effect for Rota. Widespread
destructive winds in excess of 150 mph are occurring.

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or
more are occurring or imminent.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected imminently.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible with
any northward shifts in the track.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.4N 145.1E

About 20 miles north-northwest of Rota
About 55 miles southwest of Tinian
About 65 miles north-northeast of Guam
About 65 miles southwest of Saipan
About 140 miles south-southwest of Anatahan
About 225 miles south-southwest of Alamagan
About 260 miles south of Pagan
About 300 miles south of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...180 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 9 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

At 1000 AM CHST, 0000 UTC, the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 14.4 degrees North and Longitude 145.1
degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course with an increase in
forward speed through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 180 mph. Catastrophic winds
associated with the eyewall of Bavi are imminent or occurring over
the entirety of Rota through the next hour or two. Bavi is
forecast to remain near this intensity through Tuesday as it
passes through the Marianas today and pulls out to the west
Tuesday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
60 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 230 miles to the north and up to 185 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 500 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 052100
WARNING 052100.
WARNING VALID 062100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 14.2N 145.6E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 15.1N 143.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 15.8N 140.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 14.2N 145.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
12HF 060900UTC 15.1N 143.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 062100UTC 15.8N 140.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
45HF 071800UTC 16.8N 135.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
69HF 081800UTC 18.2N 130.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 091800UTC 20.9N 126.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 101800UTC 25.1N 122.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 052129
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 20
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
729 AM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MARIANAS...
...EYEWALL PASSAGE NOW OCCURRING OVER ROTA...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
An Extreme Wind Warning is in effect for Rota. Widespread
destructive winds in excess of 150 mph are occurring.

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or
more are occurring or imminent.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected within the next 3
to 6 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible with any
northward shifts in the track, and could begin within 24 hours.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.2N 145.5E

About 20 miles east of Rota
About 55 miles south of Tinian
About 65 miles south-southwest of Saipan
About 70 miles northeast of Guam
About 150 miles south of Anatahan
About 235 miles south of Alamagan
About 270 miles south of Pagan
About 315 miles south of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...180 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 9 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 14.2 degrees North and Longitude
145.5 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 9 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course with an increase in
forward speed through Tuesday. The latest forecast track continues
to point to an imminent passage of the eye of Bavi over Rota the
next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 180 mph. Catastrophic winds
associated with the eyewall of Bavi are imminent or occurring
over the entirety of Rota through this morning. Bavi is forecast
to remain near this intensity through Tuesday as it passes
through the Marianas today and pulls out to the west Tuesday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
60 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 230 miles to the north and up to 185 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 14.0N, 146.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY
DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 051928
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 19C
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
528 AM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
PASSING THROUGH THROUGH OR NEAR ROTA THIS MORNING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more
are imminent with damaging winds ongoing already.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible with any
northward shifts in the track, and could begin within 24 hours.

SUMMARY OF 500 AM CHST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...14.0N 145.9E

About 45 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 70 miles south-southeast of Tinian
About 80 miles south of Saipan
About 85 miles east-northeast of Guam
About 165 miles south of Anatahan
About 250 miles south of Alamagan
About 285 miles south of Pagan
About 330 miles south of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...180 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...270 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM CHST...1900 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 14.0 degrees North and Longitude 145.9
degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 10 mph. It is expected to
make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in
forward speed through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 180 mph. Catastrophic winds
associated with Bavi approaching from the east, are imminent over
the entirety of Rota. Bavi is forecast to remain near this
intensity through Tuesday as it passes through the Marianas.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
60 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 230 miles to the north and up to 185 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 1100 AM ChST.

$$

Cruz


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 14.0N 146.1E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
12HF 060600UTC 14.9N 143.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
24HF 061800UTC 15.7N 141.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 071800UTC 16.8N 135.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
72HF 081800UTC 18.2N 130.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 091800UTC 20.9N 126.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 101800UTC 25.1N 122.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 14.0N 146.1E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 14.9N 143.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 15.7N 141.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 16.8N 135.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 18.2N 130.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 20.9N 126.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 25.1N 122.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 051500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 019A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 019A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 13.7N 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.3N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.1N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.9N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.5N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.1N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.0N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.6N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 146.4E.
05JUL26. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 901 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W (MAYSAK) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED REFERENCE TO TROPICAL STORM
10W (MAYSAK).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 13.7N 146.5E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
12HF 060300UTC 14.7N 144.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 061500UTC 15.5N 141.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
45HF 071200UTC 16.4N 136.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 081200UTC 17.7N 131.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 091200UTC 20.0N 127.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 101200UTC 23.7N 123.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 051500
WARNING 051500.
WARNING VALID 061500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 13.7N 146.5E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 14.7N 144.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 15.5N 141.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 051522
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 19B
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
122 AM ChST Mon Jul 6 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST TOWARD
THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more
are imminent with damaging winds ongoing already.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible with any
northward shifts in the track, and could begin within 24 hours.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...13.7N 146.5E

About 90 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 105 miles south-southeast of Tinian
About 110 miles south-southeast of Saipan
About 115 miles east of Guam
About 190 miles south-southeast of Anatahan
About 275 miles south of Alamagan
About 310 miles south of Pagan
About 355 miles south of Agrihan
About 375 miles north-northeast of Faraulep
About 440 miles north of Satawal

Maximum sustained winds...180 mph
Present movement...west...270 degrees at 10 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 13.7 degrees North and Longitude
146.5 degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 10 mph. It is expected
to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with a slight increase
in forward speed through Tuesday. This general forecast track will
take Bavi near Rota over the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 180 mph. Bavi is forecast to remain
near this intensity through Tuesday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
60 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 230 miles to the north and up to 185 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at 800
AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 13.8N, 147.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE
INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS
INTENSITY DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 051305
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
1105 PM ChST Sun Jul 5 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST TOWARD
THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Super Typhoon Bavi is intensifying further with maximum sustained
winds of 175 mph and estimated central pressure of 901 MB.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more
are imminent with damaging winds ongoing already.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible with any
northward shifts in the track, and could begin within 24 to 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...13.7N 146.9E

About 115 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 125 miles southeast of Tinian
About 125 miles southeast of Saipan
About 140 miles east of Guam
About 200 miles south-southeast of Anatahan
About 280 miles south-southeast of Alamagan
About 315 miles south-southeast of Pagan
About 360 miles south-southeast of Agrihan
About 390 miles north-northeast of Faraulep
About 435 miles north of Satawal

Maximum sustained winds...175 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 13.7 degrees North and Longitude 146.9 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west at 15 mph. It is expected to turn slightly
toward the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed
through Monday. The forecast track takes Bavi between Rota and Tinian
around 8 AM Monday, for the moment it is deviating a little to the
south or left of track.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 175 mph. Bavi is forecast
to remain near this intensity through Tuesday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 60 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
195 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Monday morning followed by
an intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 13.8N 147.0E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 14.5N 145.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 15.2N 142.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 16.4N 136.7E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 17.7N 131.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 20.0N 127.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 23.7N 123.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 13.8N 147.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
12HF 060000UTC 14.5N 145.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 061200UTC 15.2N 142.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 071200UTC 16.4N 136.7E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 081200UTC 17.7N 131.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 091200UTC 20.0N 127.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 101200UTC 23.7N 123.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 13.6N 147.6E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
12HF 052100UTC 14.3N 145.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 060900UTC 15.0N 143.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
45HF 070600UTC 16.1N 138.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 080600UTC 17.2N 132.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 090600UTC 19.1N 128.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 100600UTC 22.4N 124.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 050900
WARNING 050900.
WARNING VALID 060900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 13.6N 147.6E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 14.3N 145.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 15.0N 143.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 050916
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 18
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
716 PM ChST Sun Jul 5 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more
are expected, with the onset of damaging winds expected imminently.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible with any
northward shifts in the track, and could begin within 24 to 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...13.6N 147.6E

About 165 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 165 miles southeast of Tinian
About 165 miles southeast of Saipan
About 190 miles east of Guam
About 230 miles southeast of Anatahan
About 300 miles south-southeast of Alamagan
About 335 miles south-southeast of Pagan
About 380 miles south-southeast of Agrihan
About 405 miles north-northeast of Faraulep
About 430 miles north of Satawal

Maximum sustained winds...165 mph
Present movement...northwest...305 degrees at 10 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 13.6 degrees North and Longitude 147.6 degrees
East. Bavi is moving northwest at 10 mph. It is expected to turn
slightly toward the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward
speed through Tuesday. This general forecast track will take Bavi
between Rota and Tinian at around 8 AM ChST Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 165 mph. Bavi is forecast
to intensify further tonight, then hold steady through Monday night.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 60 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
195 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM ChST early Monday morning.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 13.5N, 148.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
910HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 110KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS, HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 050659
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
459 PM ChST Sun Jul 5 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES WEST-
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of
74 mph or more are expected, with the onset of damaging winds
expected within the next few hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible with
any northward shifts in the track, and could begin within 24 to
48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM CHST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...13.5N 148.0E

About 190 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 190 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 190 miles southeast of Saipan
About 215 miles east of Guam
About 320 miles south-southeast of Alamagan
About 350 miles south-southeast of Pagan
About 395 miles south-southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...155 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...285 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM CHST, 0700 UTC, the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 13.5 degrees North and Longitude 148.0
degrees East by PGUA radar. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 8
mph. It is expected to maintain this general course with an
increase in forward speed through Monday. This general forecast
track will take Bavi near Rota on Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 155 mph. Bavi is forecast to
intensify slightly to 160 mph tonight and maintain this intensity
through Monday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
45 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 185 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 1100 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 910 HPA
AT 13.5N 148.1E MARIANAS MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 14.1N 146.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 14.8N 143.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 115 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 16.1N 138.1E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 17.2N 132.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
900 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 19.1N 128.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 22.4N 124.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 13.5N 148.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
12HF 051800UTC 14.1N 146.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
24HF 060600UTC 14.8N 143.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
48HF 070600UTC 16.1N 138.1E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 080600UTC 17.2N 132.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 900HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 090600UTC 19.1N 128.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 100600UTC 22.4N 124.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 050300
WARNING 050300.
WARNING VALID 060300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 920 HPA
AT 13.1N 148.7E MARIANAS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 14.6N 144.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 13.1N 148.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 270NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 14.6N 144.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 070000UTC 15.8N 139.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 080000UTC 16.8N 134.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 090000UTC 18.5N 129.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 100000UTC 21.6N 126.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 050307
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 17
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
107 PM ChST Sun Jul 5 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI TURNS WEST-
NORTHWEST AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of
74 mph or more are expected, with the onset of damaging winds
expected within 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible with
any northward shifts in the track, and could begin within 48
hours.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...13.1N 148.5E

About 230 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 230 miles southeast of Tinian
About 230 miles southeast of Saipan
About 250 miles east of Guam
About 320 miles north-northwest of Ulul
About 360 miles south-southeast of Alamagan
About 390 miles south-southeast of Pagan
About 405 miles north-northeast of Satawal
About 435 miles south-southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...155 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...285 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 13.1 degrees North and Longitude
148.5 degrees East. Bavi has begun a west-northwest turn, moving
at 8 mph. It is expected to maintain this general course with an
increase in forward speed through Monday. This general forecast
track will take Bavi near Rota on Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 155 mph. Bavi is forecast to
increase slightly to 160 mph tonight and maintain this intensity
through Monday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
45 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 185 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 050145 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
1145 AM ChST Sun Jul 5 2026

Corrected the listed time in Summary and Discussion.

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST
TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of
74 mph or more are expected, with the onset of damaging winds
expected within 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible, and
could begin within 48 hours.

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74
mph or more are expected, with the onset of damaging winds
expected within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect
for Pagan and Agrihan. Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or
more are possible, and could begin within 48 hours.


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.9N 148.9E

About 260 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 260 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 260 miles southeast of Saipan
About 280 miles east of Guam
About 305 miles north of Ulul
About 385 miles south-southeast of Alamagan
About 415 miles south-southeast of Pagan
About 455 miles south-southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...155 mph
Present movement...west...260 degrees at 6 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CHST, 0000 UTC, the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.9 degrees North and Longitude 148.9
degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 6 mph. It is expected to make
a slight turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in
forward speed through Monday. This general forecast track will
take Bavi near Rota on Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 155 mph. Bavi is forecast to
increase slightly to 160 mph tonight and maintain this intensity
through Monday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
45 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 185 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 500 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.8N, 149.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
920HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT60 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS,
REDUCED TCHP, HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050000
WARNING 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 920 HPA
AT 12.8N 149.0E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 14.6N 144.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 15.8N 139.4E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 16.8N 134.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 18.5N 129.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 21.6N 126.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 12.8N 149.0E GOOD
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 270NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 14.6N 144.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 070000UTC 15.8N 139.4E 55NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 080000UTC 16.8N 134.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 090000UTC 18.5N 129.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 100000UTC 21.6N 126.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 050059
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
1059 AM ChST Sun Jul 5 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST
TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of
74 mph or more are expected, with the onset of damaging winds
expected within 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible, and
could begin within 48 hours.

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74
mph or more are expected, with the onset of damaging winds
expected within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect
for Pagan and Agrihan. Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or
more are possible, and could begin within 48 hours.


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.9N 148.9E

About 260 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 260 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 260 miles southeast of Saipan
About 280 miles east of Guam
About 305 miles north of Ulul
About 385 miles south-southeast of Alamagan
About 415 miles south-southeast of Pagan
About 455 miles south-southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...155 mph
Present movement...west...260 degrees at 6 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.9 degrees North and Longitude 148.9
degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 6 mph. It is expected to make
a slight turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in
forward speed through Monday. This general forecast track will
take Bavi near Rota on Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 155 mph. Bavi is forecast to
increase slightly to 160 mph tonight and maintain this intensity
through Monday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
45 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 185 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 500 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 042100
WARNING 042100.
WARNING VALID 052100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 920 HPA
AT 12.8N 149.2E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 14.4N 145.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 12.8N 149.2E GOOD
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 270NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 14.4N 145.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
45HF 061800UTC 15.7N 140.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 071800UTC 16.8N 135.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 081800UTC 18.2N 130.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 091800UTC 20.8N 126.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 042146
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
746 AM ChST Sun Jul 5 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Alamagan.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Alamagan. Tropical
Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are expected in around 24
hours.

A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian,
and Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of
74 mph or more are expected, with the onset of damaging winds
expected within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Pagan and Agrihan.
Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible, and
could begin within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.9N 149.2E

About 280 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 280 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 280 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 300 miles north of Ulul
About 300 miles east of Guam
About 395 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 425 miles south-southeast of Pagan
About 465 miles south-southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...155 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 7 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.9 degrees North and Longitude 149.2
degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 7 mph. It is expected to make
a slight turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in
forward speed through Monday. This general forecast track will
take Bavi near Rota on Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to 155 mph. Bavi
is forecast to increase slightly to 160 mph tonight and maintain
this intensity through Monday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
45 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 185 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.7N, 149.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
920HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, ITS TEMPORAL SUSPENSION OF DEVELOPMENT HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041800
WARNING 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 920 HPA
AT 12.7N 149.6E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 14.2N 146.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 15.7N 140.8E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 16.8N 135.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 18.2N 130.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 20.8N 126.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 12.7N 149.6E GOOD
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 14.2N 146.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 061800UTC 15.7N 140.8E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 071800UTC 16.8N 135.0E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 081800UTC 18.2N 130.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 091800UTC 20.8N 126.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 041903
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
503 AM ChST Sun Jul 5 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more
are expected, with the onset of damaging winds expected within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and
Agrihan. Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible,
and could begin within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.7N 149.6E

About 285 miles north of Ulul
About 310 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 310 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 310 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 330 miles east of Guam
About 365 miles southeast of Anatahan
About 420 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 455 miles southeast of Pagan
About 495 miles south-southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...160 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 7 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.7 degrees North and Longitude
149.6 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 7 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course with an increase in
forward speed through Monday. This general forecast track will take
Bavi near Rota on Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 160 mph. Bavi is forecast to remain
near this strength through Monday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
45 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 185 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 1100 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 041500
WARNING 041500.
WARNING VALID 051500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 920 HPA
AT 12.7N 149.8E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 14.0N 146.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 12.7N 149.8E GOOD
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 14.0N 146.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 061200UTC 15.3N 142.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 071200UTC 16.6N 136.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 081200UTC 17.8N 131.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 091200UTC 20.2N 127.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 041505
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 15
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
105 AM ChST Sun Jul 5 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or
more are expected, with the onset of damaging winds expected within
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and
Agrihan. Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible,
and could begin within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.8N 149.8E

About 290 miles north of Ulul
About 315 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 320 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 320 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 340 miles east of Guam
About 370 miles southeast of Anatahan
About 425 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 455 miles southeast of Pagan
About 495 miles southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...160 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 7 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.8 degrees North and Longitude 149.8 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 7 mph. It is expected to
maintain this general course with an increase in forward speed
through Monday. This general forecast track would take Bavi near Rota
as a very dangerous category 5 Super Typhoon Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 160 mph. Bavi is forecast
to remain near this strength through Monday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
45 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 185 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 041400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 12.7N 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.2N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.7N, 150.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
920HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, ITS TEMPORAL SUSPENSION OF DEVELOPMENT HAS
CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL
FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 12.7N 150.3E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 13.8N 147.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 061200UTC 15.3N 142.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 071200UTC 16.6N 136.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 081200UTC 17.8N 131.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 091200UTC 20.2N 127.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 920 HPA
AT 12.7N 150.3E TRUKS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 13.8N 147.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 15.3N 142.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 16.6N 136.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 17.8N 131.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 20.2N 127.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 041254
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
1054 PM ChST Sat Jul 4 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST TOWARD
THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more
are expected, with the onset of damaging winds expected within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and
Agrihan. Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible,
and could begin within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------
Location...12.7N 150.2E

About 315 miles north-northwest of Fananu
About 345 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 345 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 350 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 370 miles east of Guam
About 445 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 475 miles southeast of Pagan
About 515 miles southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...165 mph
Present movement...west...270 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.7 degrees North and Longitude 150.2 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west at 8 mph. It is expected to turn slightly
toward the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed
through Monday. This general course will take Bavi between Guam and
Saipan as a very dangerous category 5 Super Typhoon.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 165 mph. Bavi is forecast to remain
near this strength through Monday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 50 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
160 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 200 AM ChST early Sunday morning followed by an
intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 920 HPA
AT 12.6N 150.7E TRUKS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 13.7N 147.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 12.6N 150.7E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 13.7N 147.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 060600UTC 15.1N 144.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 070600UTC 16.5N 138.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 080600UTC 17.7N 133.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 090600UTC 20.0N 129.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 040920
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
720 PM ChST Sat Jul 4 2026
...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST TOWARD
THE MARIANAS...
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more
are expected, with the onset of damaging winds expected within
24 to 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and
Agrihan. Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible,
and could begin within 48 hours.
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.6N 150.5E
About 300 miles north-northwest of Fananu
About 365 miles north-northwest of Chuuk
About 365 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 365 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 370 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 390 miles east of Guam
About 465 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 495 miles southeast of Pagan
About 530 miles southeast of Agrihan
Maximum sustained winds...165 mph
Present movement...west...270 degrees at 8 mph
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.6 degrees North and Longitude 150.5 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west at 8 mph. It is expected to turn slightly
toward the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed
through Monday. This general forecast track will take Bavi between
Guam and Saipan Monday morning.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 165 mph. Bavi is forecast
to remain near this strength through Monday.
Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 50 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
160 miles.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM ChST early Sunday morning.
$$
Stanko


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040800
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 260704073741
2026070406 09W BAVI 014 02 270 07 SATL 015
T000 125N 1508E 145 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 128N 1496E 140 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 133N 1479E 140 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 140N 1459E 145 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 148N 1436E 150 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 210 NW QD
T060 155N 1409E 145 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 162N 1380E 140 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T096 175N 1324E 135 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 130 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 270 SE QD 240 SW QD 240 NW QD
T120 194N 1280E 135 R064 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R050 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 140 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 300 SE QD 290 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 014
1. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 12.5N 150.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 150.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 12.8N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.3N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.0N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.8N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.5N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.2N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.5N 132.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.4N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 150.5E.
04JUL26. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 913 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0926062618 39N1675E 15
0926062700 45N1676E 15
0926062706 49N1679E 15
0926062712 54N1677E 15
0926062718 58N1671E 15
0926062800 61N1665E 25
0926062806 67N1663E 25
0926062812 78N1663E 25
0926062818 88N1667E 25
0926062900 91N1678E 25
0926062906 90N1663E 20
0926062912 90N1659E 20
0926062918 88N1656E 20
0926063000 85N1652E 20
0926063006 86N1649E 20
0926063012 86N1646E 20
0926063018 86N1643E 20
0926070100 88N1636E 25
0926070106 92N1630E 30
0926070112 97N1624E 35
0926070118 104N1614E 40
0926070200 111N1602E 45
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070318 127N1522E 135
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145
0926070406 125N1508E 145


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.5N, 150.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
920HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 105KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 040726
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
526 PM ChST Sat Jul 4 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...
...BAVI EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS AS A SUPER
TYPHOON MONDAY MORNING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of
74 mph or more are expected, with the onset of damaging winds
expected within 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and
Agrihan. Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible,
and could begin within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.5N 150.8E

About 285 miles north-northwest of Fananu
About 355 miles north of Chuuk
About 385 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 385 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 390 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 410 miles east of Guam
About 485 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 515 miles southeast of Pagan
About 550 miles southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...160 mph
Present movement...west-southwest...255 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CHST...0700 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.5 degrees North and Longitude
150.8 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-southwest around 8 mph. It
is expected to make a turn toward the west-northwest with little
change in forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 160 mph. Bavi is forecast to
maintain this intensity through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 160 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST this evening followed by
an intermediate advisory at 1100 PM ChST.

$$

Whisnant


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 12.5N 150.9E FAIR
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 13.5N 148.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 060600UTC 15.1N 144.0E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 070600UTC 16.5N 138.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 080600UTC 17.7N 133.1E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 090600UTC 20.0N 129.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 920 HPA
AT 12.5N 150.9E TRUKS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 13.5N 148.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 15.1N 144.0E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 16.5N 138.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 17.7N 133.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 20.0N 129.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040300
WARNING 040300.
WARNING VALID 050300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 12.5N 151.2E TRUKS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 13.3N 148.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 12.5N 151.2E FAIR
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 13.3N 148.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 060000UTC 14.7N 145.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 070000UTC 16.3N 139.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 080000UTC 17.6N 134.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 090000UTC 19.1N 130.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 040351
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 13
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
151 PM ChST Sat Jul 4 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...
...BAVI EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS AS A SUPER
TYPHOON MONDAY MORNING...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A Typhoon Warning is now in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or
more are expected, with the onset of damaging winds expected
within 24 to 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and
Agrihan. Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible,
and could begin within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.5N 151.2E

About 280 miles north-northwest of Fananu
About 350 miles north of Chuuk
About 410 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 410 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 415 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 435 miles east of Guam
About 500 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 530 miles southeast of Pagan
About 565 miles southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...160 mph
Present movement...west-southwest...255 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.5 degrees North and Longitude
151.2 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-southwest at 8 mph. It is
expected to make a turn toward the west-northwest with little
change in forward speed through Sunday. Bavi is expected to
remain a very dangerous super typhoon during its passage through
the southern Marianas Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 160 mph. Bavi is forecast to
maintain this intensity through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 160 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.5N, 151.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
925HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 100KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS INTENSITY
DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 260704014149
2026070400 09W BAVI 013 02 255 07 SATL 020
T000 125N 1515E 140 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 126N 1503E 140 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 130N 1489E 140 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 136N 1471E 145 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 144N 1450E 140 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 210 NW QD
T060 151N 1425E 135 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 158N 1397E 135 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 240 SE QD 190 SW QD 230 NW QD
T096 171N 1341E 130 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 220 SE QD 240 SW QD 240 NW QD
T120 186N 1295E 125 R064 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 300 SE QD 280 SW QD 250 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 013
1. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 12.5N 151.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 151.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 12.6N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.0N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.6N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.4N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.1N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.8N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.1N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.6N 129.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 151.2E.
04JUL26. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
EAST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 922 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0926062618 39N1675E 15
0926062700 45N1676E 15
0926062706 49N1679E 15
0926062712 54N1677E 15
0926062718 58N1671E 15
0926062800 61N1665E 25
0926062806 67N1663E 25
0926062812 78N1663E 25
0926062818 88N1667E 25
0926062900 91N1678E 25
0926062906 90N1663E 20
0926062912 90N1659E 20
0926062918 88N1656E 20
0926063000 85N1652E 20
0926063006 86N1649E 20
0926063012 86N1646E 20
0926063018 86N1643E 20
0926070100 88N1636E 25
0926070106 92N1630E 30
0926070112 97N1624E 35
0926070118 104N1614E 40
0926070200 111N1602E 45
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070318 127N1522E 140
0926070318 127N1522E 140
0926070318 127N1522E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
0926070400 125N1515E 140
NNNN


0000866900
00001


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 12.5N 151.5E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 13.1N 149.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 060000UTC 14.7N 145.3E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 070000UTC 16.3N 139.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 080000UTC 17.6N 134.4E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 090000UTC 19.1N 130.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040000
WARNING 040000.
WARNING VALID 050000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 925 HPA
AT 12.5N 151.5E TRUKS MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 13.1N 149.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 14.7N 145.3E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 16.3N 139.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 17.6N 134.4E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 19.1N 130.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 040053
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
1053 AM ChST Sat Jul 4 2026

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST TOWARD
THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or
more are possible, with the onset of damaging winds possible within
48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and
Agrihan. Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible,
and could begin within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.5N 151.5E

About 275 miles north of Fananu
About 350 miles north of Chuuk
About 425 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 430 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 435 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 455 miles east of Guam
About 515 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 545 miles southeast of Pagan
About 580 miles southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...160 mph
Present movement...west-southwest...250 degrees at 7 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.5 degrees North and Longitude
151.5 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-southwest at 7 mph. It is
expected to maintain this general course with a slight decrease
in forward speed through Sunday. Bavi is expected to remain a
very dangerous super typhoon during its passage through the
Marianas Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 160 mph. Bavi is forecast to
continue to intensify through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 150 miles to the north and up to 105 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 500 PM ChST.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 032100
WARNING 032100.
WARNING VALID 042100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 12.7N 151.9E TRUKS MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 12.8N 150.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 13.1N 149.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 032100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 032100UTC 12.7N 151.9E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 040900UTC 12.8N 150.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 042100UTC 13.1N 149.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 051800UTC 14.4N 146.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 061800UTC 16.1N 141.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 071800UTC 17.5N 135.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 081800UTC 18.7N 130.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 032111
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Super Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 12
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
711 AM ChST Sat Jul 4 2026

...BAVI UPGRADED TO A SUPER TYPHOON...

...VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 SUPER TYPHOON BAVI MOVING TOWARD THE
MARIANAS...


CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or
more are possible, with the onset of damaging winds possible within
48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and
Agrihan. Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible,
and could begin within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.7N 151.9E

About 285 miles north of Fananu
About 360 miles north of Chuuk
About 445 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 450 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 460 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 480 miles east of Guam
About 525 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 555 miles southeast of Pagan
About 585 miles northwest of Pohnpei
About 590 miles southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...160 mph
Present movement...west...265 degrees at 10 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Super Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.7 degrees North and Longitude 151.9 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west at 10 mph. It is expected to maintain this
general course with a slight decrease in forward speed through Sunday.
Bavi is expected to remain a very dangerous super typhoon during its
passage through the Marianas Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 160 mph. Bavi is forecast
to continue to intensify through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 50 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 150
miles to the north and up to 105 miles to the south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Whisnant


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 032100
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 260703200722
2026070318 09W BAVI 012 02 265 09 SATL SYNP 020
T000 127N 1522E 140 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 127N 1508E 145 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 129N 1496E 145 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 134N 1481E 150 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 141N 1462E 145 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 200 NW QD
T060 149N 1441E 140 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 157N 1415E 135 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 220 NW QD
T096 171N 1357E 135 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 130 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 220 SW QD 240 NW QD
T120 185N 1309E 130 R064 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 130 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 300 SE QD 290 SW QD 250 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 012
1. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 012
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 152.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 152.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 12.7N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 12.9N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.4N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.1N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.9N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.7N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.1N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.5N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 151.9E.
03JUL26. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
EAST OF WFO GUAM , HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 921 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0926062618 39N1675E 15
0926062700 45N1676E 15
0926062706 49N1679E 15
0926062712 54N1677E 15
0926062718 58N1671E 15
0926062800 61N1665E 25
0926062806 67N1663E 25
0926062812 78N1663E 25
0926062818 88N1667E 25
0926062900 91N1678E 25
0926062906 90N1663E 20
0926062912 90N1659E 20
0926062918 88N1656E 20
0926063000 85N1652E 20
0926063006 86N1649E 20
0926063012 86N1646E 20
0926063018 86N1643E 20
0926070100 88N1636E 25
0926070106 92N1630E 30
0926070112 97N1624E 35
0926070118 104N1614E 40
0926070200 111N1602E 45
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070318 127N1522E 140
0926070318 127N1522E 140
0926070318 127N1522E 140


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 012
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 152.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 152.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 12.7N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 12.9N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.4N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.1N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.9N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.7N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.1N 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.5N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 151.9E.
03JUL26. SUPER TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
EAST OF WFO GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 921 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W
(MAYSAK) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 031949
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
549 AM ChST Sat Jul 4 2026

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON BAVI MOVING TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan, and
surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more are
possible, with the onset of damaging winds possible within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.
Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible, and could
begin within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.7N 152.2E

About 280 miles north of Fananu
About 330 miles north-northeast of Ulul
About 360 miles north of Chuuk
About 465 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 470 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 480 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 500 miles east of Guam
About 545 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 570 miles southeast of Pagan
About 600 miles southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...145 mph
Present movement...west...265 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was located
near Latitude 12.7 degrees North and Longitude 152.2 degrees East.
Bavi is moving west at 12 mph. It is expected to maintain this
general course with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday. This
general forecast track will take Bavi through the Marianas as a
category 5 Super Typhoon on Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 145 mph. Bavi is forecast to
intensify through Sunday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 150 miles to the north and up to 105 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM ChST followed by an intermediate advisory at 1100
AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.7N, 152.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
935HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 95KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 031912
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
512 AM ChST Sat Jul 4 2026

...TYPHOON BAVI MOVING WEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or
more are possible, with the onset of damaging winds possible
within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.
Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible, and could
begin within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.8N 152.7E

About 290 miles north of Fananu
About 355 miles northeast of Ulul
About 375 miles north of Chuuk
About 465 miles north-northeast of Polowat
About 495 miles east-southeast of Tinian and Saipan
About 510 miles east of Rota
About 535 miles east of Guam
About 565 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 590 miles southeast of Pagan
About 620 miles southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...145 mph
Present movement...west...265 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was located
near Latitude 12.8 degrees North and Longitude 152.7 degrees East.
Bavi is moving west at 12 mph. It is expected to maintain this
general course with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 145 mph. Bavi is forecast to
intensify through Sunday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 50 miles
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
150 miles to the north and up to 105 miles to the south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 800 AM ChST followed by an intermediate advisory
at 1100 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 12.7N 152.3E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 040600UTC 12.8N 151.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
24HF 041800UTC 13.1N 150.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 051800UTC 14.4N 146.5E 55NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 061800UTC 16.1N 141.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 071800UTC 17.5N 135.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 081800UTC 18.7N 130.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031800
WARNING 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 935 HPA
AT 12.7N 152.3E TRUKS MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 12.8N 151.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 13.1N 150.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 14.4N 146.5E WITH 55 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 16.1N 141.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 17.5N 135.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
910 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 18.7N 130.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
920 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 031500
WARNING 031500.
WARNING VALID 041500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 950 HPA
AT 12.7N 152.8E TRUKS MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 12.7N 151.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 13.0N 150.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031500UTC 12.7N 152.8E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 040300UTC 12.7N 151.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 041500UTC 13.0N 150.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 051200UTC 14.0N 147.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
69HF 061200UTC 15.7N 142.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 071200UTC 16.8N 137.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 081200UTC 17.8N 131.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 031531
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 11
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
131 AM ChST Sat Jul 4 2026

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON BAVI MOVING TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or
more are possible, with the onset of damaging winds possible within
48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.
Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible, and could
begin within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.8N 152.7E

About 290 miles north of Fananu
About 355 miles northeast of Ulul
About 375 miles north of Chuuk
About 495 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 495 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 510 miles east of Rota
About 535 miles east of Guam
About 565 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 590 miles southeast of Pagan
About 620 miles southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...145 mph
Present movement...west...265 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was located
near Latitude 12.8 degrees North and Longitude 152.7 degrees East.
Bavi is moving west at 12 mph. It is expected to maintain this
general course with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday. This
general forecast track will bring Bavi through the Marianas as a
very dangerous category 5 super typhoon Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 145 mph. Bavi is forecast
to intensify through Sunday, likely becoming a super typhoon.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 150 miles to the north and up to 105 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 AM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory at
800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 12.8N 153.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 153.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 12.7N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 12.8N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.2N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.9N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.7N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.5N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.9N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.3N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 152.7E.
03JUL26. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 482 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 939 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10W
(MAYSAK) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 260703134011
2026070312 09W BAVI 011 02 265 10 SATL 030
T000 128N 1531E 125 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 127N 1517E 140 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 128N 1504E 150 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 132N 1489E 150 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 139N 1470E 145 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T060 147N 1448E 140 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 210 NW QD
T072 155N 1423E 135 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 230 NW QD
T096 169N 1369E 135 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 130 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 250 SE QD 220 SW QD 250 NW QD
T120 183N 1315E 135 R064 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 140 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 290 SE QD 280 SW QD 280 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 12.8N 153.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 153.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 12.7N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 12.8N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.2N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.9N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.7N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.5N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.9N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.3N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 152.7E.
03JUL26. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 482 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 939 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0926062618 39N1675E 15
0926062700 45N1676E 15
0926062706 49N1679E 15
0926062712 54N1677E 15
0926062718 58N1671E 15
0926062800 61N1665E 25
0926062806 67N1663E 25
0926062812 78N1663E 25
0926062818 88N1667E 25
0926062900 91N1678E 25
0926062906 90N1663E 20
0926062912 90N1659E 20
0926062918 88N1656E 20
0926063000 85N1652E 20
0926063006 86N1649E 20
0926063012 86N1646E 20
0926063018 86N1643E 20
0926070100 88N1636E 25
0926070106 92N1630E 30
0926070112 97N1624E 35
0926070118 104N1614E 40
0926070200 111N1602E 45
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070306 129N1541E 105
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125
0926070312 128N1531E 125


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.8N, 153.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 031300
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
1100 PM ChST Fri Jul 3 2026

...TYPHOON BAVI INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan, and
surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more are
possible, with the onset of damaging winds possible in about 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.
Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible, and could
begin in about 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.8N 153.1E

About 295 miles north of Fananu
About 370 miles northeast of Ulul
About 480 miles northeast of Polowat
About 520 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 525 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 535 miles east of Rota
About 560 miles east of Guam
About 585 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 610 miles southeast of Pagan
About 640 miles southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...125 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CHST...1200 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.8 degrees North and Longitude
153.1 degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 13 mph. It is expected
to maintain this general course with a decrease in forward speed
through Sunday morning. This general forecast track will take Bavi
through the Marianas as a very dangerous category 5 super typhoon
Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 125 mph. Bavi is forecast
to continue to intensify through Sunday morning.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 150 miles to the north and up to 105 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Saturday morning followed by
an intermediate advisory at 500 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 031200
WARNING 031200.
WARNING VALID 041200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 950 HPA
AT 12.8N 153.1E TRUKS MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 12.7N 152.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 12.9N 150.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 14.0N 147.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 15.7N 142.8E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 16.8N 137.0E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 17.8N 131.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 12.8N 153.1E FAIR
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 040000UTC 12.7N 152.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
24HF 041200UTC 12.9N 150.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 051200UTC 14.0N 147.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
72HF 061200UTC 15.7N 142.8E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 071200UTC 16.8N 137.0E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 081200UTC 17.8N 131.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 030900
WARNING 030900.
WARNING VALID 040900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 950 HPA
AT 12.9N 153.6E TRUKS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 12.8N 152.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040900UTC AT 12.9N 151.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 12.9N 153.6E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 032100UTC 12.8N 152.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 040900UTC 12.9N 151.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 050600UTC 13.4N 148.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 060600UTC 15.1N 144.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
93HF 070600UTC 16.6N 138.9E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
117HF 080600UTC 17.8N 133.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 030958
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
758 PM ChST Fri Jul 3 2026

...TYPHOON BAVI INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY EAST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and
Agrihan.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or
more are possible, with the onset of damaging winds possible in
around 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan.
Tropical Storm force winds of 39 mph or more are possible, and could
begin in around 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.9N 153.8E

About 315 miles north-northeast of Fananu
About 400 miles north-northeast of Chuuk
About 410 miles northeast of Ulul
About 560 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 565 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 580 miles east of Rota
About 605 miles east of Guam
About 620 miles east-southeast of Alamagan
About 645 miles east-southeast of Pagan
About 675 miles southeast of Agrihan

Maximum sustained winds...120 mph
Present movement...west...280 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was located
near Latitude 12.9 degrees North and Longitude 153.8 degrees East.
Bavi is moving west at 13 mph. It is expected to maintain this
general course with a decrease in forward speed through Sunday
morning. This general forecast track will take Bavi through the
Marianas as a very dangerous category 5 super typhoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 120 mph. Bavi is
forecast to intensify through Sunday morning.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 150 miles to the north and up to 105 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM ChST followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM ChST early Saturday morning.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 260703073922
2026070306 09W BAVI 010 02 280 11 SATL 030
T000 129N 1542E 105 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 129N 1525E 125 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 129N 1511E 140 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 130N 1498E 150 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 135N 1483E 150 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 170 NW QD
T060 143N 1462E 140 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 151N 1439E 135 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 166N 1387E 135 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T120 181N 1332E 135 R064 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 270 SE QD 260 SW QD 280 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 12.9N 154.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 154.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 12.9N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 12.9N 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.0N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.5N 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.3N 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.1N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.6N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.1N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 153.8E.
03JUL26. TYPHOON 09W (BAVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 39 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0926062618 39N1675E 15
0926062700 45N1676E 15
0926062706 49N1679E 15
0926062712 54N1677E 15
0926062718 58N1671E 15
0926062800 61N1665E 25
0926062806 67N1663E 25
0926062812 78N1663E 25
0926062818 88N1667E 25
0926062900 91N1678E 25
0926062906 90N1663E 20
0926062912 90N1659E 20
0926062918 88N1656E 20
0926063000 85N1652E 20
0926063006 86N1649E 20
0926063012 86N1646E 20
0926063018 86N1643E 20
0926070100 88N1636E 25
0926070106 92N1630E 30
0926070112 97N1624E 35
0926070118 104N1614E 40
0926070200 111N1602E 45
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070206 118N1590E 55
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070212 122N1578E 60
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070218 126N1566E 70
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070300 127N1553E 85
0926070306 129N1542E 105
0926070306 129N1542E 105
0926070306 129N1542E 105
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.9N, 154.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF
AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 030716 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
516 PM ChST Fri Jul 3 2026

Corrected time in in summary and outlook

...TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH AS IT HEADS WEST
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...
...A SUPER TYPHOON PASSAGE COULD OCCUR IN THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph
or more are possible, with the onset of damaging winds of 39 mph
expected around 48 hours. Residents of Alamagan, Pagan, and
Agrihan should continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM CHST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.9N 154.0E

About 320 miles north-northeast of Fananu
About 405 miles north-northeast of Chuuk
About 500 miles northwest of Pohnpei
About 575 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 580 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 595 miles east of Rota
About 620 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...105 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM CHST...0700 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.9 degrees North and Longitude
154.0 degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 15 mph. It is expected
to maintain this general course with a decrease in forward speed
through the weekend. The latest forecast shows a southward shift,
passing between Rota and Tinian.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 105 mph. Bavi is forecast to
intensify through Saturday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 160 miles to the north and up to 105 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 1100 PM ChST.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030600
WARNING 030600.
WARNING VALID 040600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 955 HPA
AT 12.9N 154.2E TRUKS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 12.6N 152.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 12.6N 151.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 13.4N 148.7E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 15.1N 144.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 16.6N 138.9E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
905 HPA, MAX WINDS 110 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 17.8N 133.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 12.9N 154.2E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 75NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 031800UTC 12.6N 152.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
24HF 040600UTC 12.6N 151.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 050600UTC 13.4N 148.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 060600UTC 15.1N 144.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
96HF 070600UTC 16.6N 138.9E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 905HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
120HF 080600UTC 17.8N 133.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 030702
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
502 PM ChST Fri Jul 3 2026

...TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH AS IT HEADS WEST
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...
...A SUPER TYPHOON PASSAGE COULD OCCUR IN THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters. Typhoon force winds of 74 mph
or more are possible, with the onset of damaging winds of 39 mph
expected around 48 hours. Residents of Alamagan, Pagan, and
Agrihan should continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.9N 154.0E

About 320 miles north-northeast of Fananu
About 405 miles north-northeast of Chuuk
About 500 miles northwest of Pohnpei
About 575 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 580 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 595 miles east of Rota
About 620 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...105 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.9 degrees North and Longitude
154.0 degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 15 mph. It is expected
to maintain this general course with a decrease in forward speed
through the weekend. The latest forecast shows a southward shift,
passing between Rota and Tinian.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 105 mph. Bavi is forecast to
intensify through Saturday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 160 miles to the north and up to 105 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST followed by an intermediate
advisory at 1100 PM ChST.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 030412 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
212 PM ChST Fri Jul 3 2026

Corrected headline format.

...TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH AS IT HEADS WEST
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...
...A SUPER TYPHOON PASSAGE COULD OCCUR IN THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A Typhoon Watch has been issued for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters.

Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more are possible, with the
onset of damaging winds of 39 mph expected around 48 hours.

Residents of Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan should continue to
monitor the forecast for updates.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.7N 154.8E

About 330 miles north-northeast of Fananu
About 415 miles north-northeast of Chuuk
About 430 miles north-northeast of Losap
About 435 miles north-northwest of Pakin
About 630 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 635 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 650 miles east of Rota
About 675 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...105 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.7 degrees North and Longitude
154.8 degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 15 mph. It is expected
to maintain this general course with a decrease in forward speed
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph. Bavi is
forecast to intensify through the weekend, and is forecast to
become a super typhoon Saturday morning, as it continues heading
towards the Marianas.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 160 miles to the north and up to 105 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next intermediate advisory will be issued be issued by the
National Weather Service at 500 PM ChST this afternoon,
followed by the scheduled advisory will at 800 PM ChST this
evening.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 030300
WARNING 030300.
WARNING VALID 040300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) 970 HPA
AT 12.9N 154.8E TRUKS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 12.8N 153.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040300UTC AT 12.6N 151.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 12.9N 154.8E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 031500UTC 12.8N 153.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 040300UTC 12.6N 151.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 050000UTC 13.3N 149.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 060000UTC 14.8N 145.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 070000UTC 16.5N 140.2E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 080000UTC 17.7N 134.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 030339
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
139 PM ChST Fri Jul 3 2026

...TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUING TO GAIN STRENGTH AS IT HEADS WEST,
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...
...A SUPER TYPHOON PASSAGE COULD OCCUR IN THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A Typhoon Watch has been issued for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and
Saipan, and surrounding coastal waters.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Watch is in effect for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan,
and surrounding coastal waters.

Typhoon force winds of 74 mph or more are possible, with the
onset of damaging winds of 39 mph expected around 48 hours.

Residents of Alamagan, Pagan, and Agrihan should continue to
monitor the forecast for updates.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.7N 154.8E

About 330 miles north-northeast of Fananu
About 415 miles north-northeast of Chuuk
About 430 miles north-northeast of Losap
About 435 miles north-northwest of Pakin
About 630 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 635 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 650 miles east of Rota
About 675 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...105 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.7 degrees North and Longitude
154.8 degrees East. Bavi is moving west at 15 mph. It is expected
to maintain this general course with a decrease in forward speed
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph. Bavi is
forecast to intensify through the weekend, and is forecast to
become a super typhoon Saturday morning, as it continues heading
towards the Marianas.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 160 miles to the north and up to 105 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next intermediate advisory will be issued be issued by the
National Weather Service at 500 PM ChST this afternoon,
followed by the scheduled advisory will at 800 PM ChST this
evening.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.8N, 155.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2609 BAVI (2609) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030000UTC 12.8N 155.6E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 031200UTC 12.8N 153.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 040000UTC 12.7N 152.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 050000UTC 13.3N 149.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 060000UTC 14.8N 145.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 070000UTC 16.5N 140.2E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 080000UTC 17.7N 134.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 030000
WARNING 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2609 BAVI (2609) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975 HPA
AT 12.8N 155.6E MARSHALLS MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 12.8N 153.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 12.7N 152.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 13.3N 149.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 14.8N 145.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 16.5N 140.2E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 17.7N 134.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 022100
WARNING 022100.
WARNING VALID 032100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 985 HPA
AT 12.6N 156.3E MARSHALLS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 12.8N 154.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 032100UTC AT 12.7N 152.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 022100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 022100UTC 12.6N 156.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
12HF 030900UTC 12.8N 154.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 032100UTC 12.7N 152.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 041800UTC 13.1N 150.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 051800UTC 14.6N 146.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
93HF 061800UTC 16.2N 141.9E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
117HF 071800UTC 17.3N 136.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 022042 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
642 AM ChST Fri Jul 3 2026

...TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, MAINTAINING
ITS APPROACH TO THE MARIANAS...

......A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON PASSAGE IN THE MARIANAS IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Tropical Storm Bavi (09W) has been upgraded to a typhoon.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None. However...Residents of the Marianas should carefully
monitor the progress of Typhoon Bavi (09W).


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.7N 156.1E

About 405 miles north-northwest of Pakin
About 420 miles north-northwest of Pohnpei
About 430 miles west-northwest of Enewetak
About 465 miles northeast of Chuuk
About 480 miles north of Sapwuafik
About 690 miles northwest of Kosrae
About 715 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 720 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 735 miles east of Rota
About 760 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...80 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.7 degrees North and Longitude
156.1 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the west with a decrease
in forward speed through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 80 mph. Bavi is
forecast to intensify through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 160 miles to the northeast and up to 125 miles
elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 022040
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 8
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
640 AM ChST Fri Jul 3 2026

...TYPHOON BAVI CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, MAINTAINING
ITS APPROACH TO THE MARIANAS...

......A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON PASSAGE IN THE MARIANAS IS
LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
Tropical Storm Bavi (09W) has been upgraded to a typhoon.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None. However...Residents of the Marianas should carefully
monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Bavi (09W).


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.7N 156.1E

About 405 miles north-northwest of Pakin
About 420 miles north-northwest of Pohnpei
About 430 miles west-northwest of Enewetak
About 465 miles northeast of Chuuk
About 480 miles north of Sapwuafik
About 690 miles northwest of Kosrae
About 715 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 720 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 735 miles east of Rota
About 760 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...80 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...290 degrees at 14 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.7 degrees North and Longitude
156.1 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the west with a decrease
in forward speed through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 80 mph. Bavi is
forecast to intensify through tonight.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
50 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 160 miles to the northeast and up to 125 miles
elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.7N, 156.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 12.7N 156.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 20NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 150NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030600UTC 12.9N 154.4E 40NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 031800UTC 12.8N 152.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 041800UTC 13.1N 150.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 051800UTC 14.6N 146.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 061800UTC 16.2N 141.9E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
120HF 071800UTC 17.3N 136.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021800
WARNING 021800.
WARNING VALID 031800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 990 HPA
AT 12.7N 156.8E MARSHALLS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 20 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 12.9N 154.4E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 12.8N 152.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 13.1N 150.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 14.6N 146.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 16.2N 141.9E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 17.3N 136.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 021542
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 7
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
142 AM ChST Fri Jul 3 2026

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None. However...Residents of the Marianas should carefully
monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Bavi (09W).

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.4N 157.4E

About 370 miles north of Pakin
About 380 miles north of Pohnpei
About 435 miles northeast of Fananu
About 455 miles north of Sapwuafik
About 510 miles northeast of Chuuk
About 615 miles northwest of Kosrae
About 805 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 810 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 825 miles east of Rota
About 850 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...65 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Bavi was
located near Latitude 12.4 degrees North and Longitude 157.4 degrees
East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 13 mph. It is expected to
make a slight turn toward the west with a slight decrease in forward
speed through Saturday. This general forecast track would take Bavi
through the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas as a super typhoon.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 65 mph. Bavi is forecast
to intensify through Saturday likely becoming a typhoon.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
160 miles to the northeast and up to 125 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 021500
WARNING 021500.
WARNING VALID 031500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 992 HPA
AT 12.3N 157.3E MARSHALLS MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 12.9N 154.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031500UTC AT 12.9N 153.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 12.3N 157.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030300UTC 12.9N 154.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 031500UTC 12.9N 153.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 041200UTC 13.3N 151.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 051200UTC 14.4N 147.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
93HF 061200UTC 16.0N 143.1E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 071200UTC 17.3N 137.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 12.3N, 157.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 12.3N 157.9E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 030000UTC 12.9N 155.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
24HF 031200UTC 13.1N 153.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 041200UTC 13.3N 151.0E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 051200UTC 14.4N 147.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 061200UTC 16.0N 143.1E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 071200UTC 17.3N 137.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 021200
WARNING 021200.
WARNING VALID 031200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 992 HPA
AT 12.3N 157.9E MARSHALLS MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 12.9N 155.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 13.1N 153.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 13.3N 151.0E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 14.4N 147.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 16.0N 143.1E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 17.3N 137.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 020900
WARNING 020900.
WARNING VALID 030900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
992 HPA
AT 12.3N 158.3E MARSHALLS MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 12.8N 156.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030900UTC AT 13.1N 154.3E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2609 BAVI (2609) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 12.3N 158.3E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 022100UTC 12.8N 156.3E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 030900UTC 13.1N 154.3E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 040600UTC 13.0N 151.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 050600UTC 13.8N 148.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
93HF 060600UTC 15.3N 144.6E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
117HF 070600UTC 16.7N 139.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 020932
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
732 PM ChST Thu Jul 2 2026

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI (09W), FAR NORTH OF POHNPEI, MOVING WEST-
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None. However...Residents of the Marianas should carefully
monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Bavi (09W).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...11.9N 158.5E

About 260 miles west of Enewetak
About 340 miles north of Pohnpei
About 545 miles northeast of Chuuk
About 545 miles north-northwest of Kosrae
About 885 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 890 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 905 miles east of Rota
About 930 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...60 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Bavi was
located near Latitude 11.9 degrees North and Longitude
158.5 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 15 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the west with a slight
decrease in forward speed through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 60 mph. Bavi is forecast to
intensify through the next few days, potentially becoming a
typhoon by Friday afternoon. The latest forecast from the JTWC
continues to depicts an eventual track through the Marianas, with
Bavi potentially arriving around late Sunday or Monday, and
potentially as a strong typhoon.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
160 miles to the northeast and up to 125 miles elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Friday morning.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 11.9N, 159.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED
BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020600UTC 11.9N 159.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021800UTC 12.5N 157.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 030600UTC 12.9N 154.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 040600UTC 13.0N 151.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 050600UTC 13.8N 148.7E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 060600UTC 15.3N 144.6E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
120HF 070600UTC 16.7N 139.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020600
WARNING 020600.
WARNING VALID 030600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 998 HPA
AT 11.9N 159.4E MARSHALLS MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 12.5N 157.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 12.9N 154.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040600UTC AT 13.0N 151.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 13.8N 148.7E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 15.3N 144.6E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 16.7N 139.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 020300
WARNING 020300.
WARNING VALID 030300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) 998 HPA
AT 11.1N 159.7E MARSHALLS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 12.3N 157.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030300UTC AT 12.9N 155.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020300UTC 11.1N 159.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021500UTC 12.3N 157.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 030300UTC 12.9N 155.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 040000UTC 13.3N 152.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 050000UTC 13.9N 149.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
93HF 060000UTC 15.2N 145.4E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
117HF 070000UTC 16.4N 140.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 020337
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bavi (09W) Advisory Number 5
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
137 PM ChST Thu Jul 2 2026

...TROPICAL STORM BAVI (09W) MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR A TYPHOON PASSAGE SOMEWHERE IN THE
MARIANAS CONTINUES TO INCREASE...
...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
PASSAGE IS INCREASING...
...STAY INFORMED WITH THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES...
...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None. However...Residents of the Marianas should carefully
monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Bavi (09W).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...11.2N 159.7E

About 130 miles northwest of Ujelang
About 180 miles west of Enewetak
About 310 miles north-northeast of Pohnpei
About 595 miles east-northeast of Chuuk
About 840 miles west-northwest of Majuro
About 975 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 980 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 995 miles east of Rota
About 1015 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...60 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Bavi was
located near Latitude 11.2 degrees North and Longitude
159.7 degrees East. Bavi is moving west-northwest at 15 mph. It
is expected to maintain this general course with a slight
decrease in forward speed through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 mph. Bavi is
forecast to intensify through tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
80 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2609 BAVI (2609)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 10.8N, 160.6E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(BAVI) STATUS. TS BAVI IS LOCATED AT 10.3N, 159.9E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INSUFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT FOR ITS FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2609 BAVI (2609) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 10.3N 159.9E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 021200UTC 12.2N 158.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 030000UTC 12.8N 156.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 040000UTC 13.3N 152.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 050000UTC 13.9N 149.6E 100NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
96HF 060000UTC 15.2N 145.4E 125NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
120HF 070000UTC 16.4N 140.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 020000
WARNING 020000.
WARNING VALID 030000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2609 BAVI (2609) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 10.3N 159.9E MARSHALLS MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 12.2N 158.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 12.8N 156.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 13.3N 152.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 13.9N 149.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 15.2N 145.4E WITH 125 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 16.4N 140.4E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 012109
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm 09W Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
709 AM ChST Thu Jul 2 2026

...TROPICAL STORM NINE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT HEADS
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None. However...Residents of the Marianas should carefully
monitor the progress of Tropical Storm 09W.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...10.8N 160.9E

About 70 miles north of Ujelang
About 105 miles west-southwest of Enewetak
About 295 miles north-northeast of Mokil
About 315 miles north of Pingelap
About 320 miles northeast of Pohnpei
About 335 miles northeast of Pakin
About 400 miles north-northwest of Kosrae
About 430 miles northeast of Sapwuafik
About 660 miles east-northeast of Chuuk
About 1100 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...45 mph
Present movement...northwest...310 degrees at 15 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm 09W was
located near Latitude 10.8 degrees North and Longitude
160.9 degrees East. 09W is moving northwest at 15 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with a
slight decrease in forward speed through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 mph. 09W is forecast
to intensify through tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
70 miles.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 PM ChST.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 011605
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm 09W Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
205 AM ChST Thu Jul 2 2026

...09W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None. However...Residents of the Marianas should carefully monitor
the progress of Tropical Storm 09W.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...10.1N 161.9E

About 65 miles east-northeast of Ujelang
About 90 miles south-southwest of Enewetak
About 275 miles north-northeast of Mokil
About 280 miles north-northeast of Pingelap
About 330 miles northeast of Pohnpei
About 335 miles north-northwest of Kosrae
About 350 miles northeast of Pakin
About 440 miles northeast of Sapwuafik
About 710 miles east-northeast of Chuuk
About 1180 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...40 mph
Present movement...northwest...310 degrees at 10 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm 09W was
located near Latitude 10.1 degrees North and Longitude 161.9 degrees
East. 09W is moving northwest at 10 mph. It is expected to turn
slightly toward the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward
speed through Friday. This general forecast track would bring 09W
into the Marianas early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 40 mph. 09W is forecast
to intensify through Friday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to
35 miles to the southeast and with little or none elsewhere.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 AM ChST.

$$

Stanko


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 010941
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 09W Advisory Number 2
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
741 PM ChST Wed Jul 1 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE, MOVING
NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...9.5N 162.6E

About 110 miles east of Ujelang
About 130 miles south of Enewetak
About 220 miles west of Ujae
About 285 miles north of Kosrae
About 345 miles east-northeast of Pohnpei
About 750 miles east of Chuuk
About 1235 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...35 mph
Present movement...northwest...305 degrees at 8 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 09W
was located near Latitude 9.5 degrees North and Longitude
162.6 degrees East. 09W is moving northwest at 8 mph. It is
expected to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with an
increase in forward speed through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to 35 mph. 09W is forecast
to intensify through Thursday, possibly becoming a tropical storm
early Thursday morning as it passes near Ujelang Atoll.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 200 AM ChST early Thursday morning.

$$

DeCou


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 010300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001 CORRECTED//
REF//A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301321ZJUN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 8.7N 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 9.5N 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 10.6N 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.6N 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.4N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.7N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.0N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.8N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.2N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 162.9E.
01JUL26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
151 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 301300).
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SECTION TWO WITH CORRECT
MANOP INFORMATION.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 010347 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Depression 09W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
147 PM ChST Wed Jul 1 2026

Corrected to add Pohnpei to the locations

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG...
...TD 09W WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...8.9N 162.9E

About 145 miles east-southeast of Ujelang
About 175 miles south-southeast of Enewetak
About 195 miles west of Ujae
About 240 miles northeast of Pingelap
About 245 miles north of Kosrae
About 345 miles east-northeast of Pohnpei
About 760 miles east of Chuuk
About 760 miles south-southwest of Wake
About 1265 miles east-southeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 09W
was located near Latitude 8.9 degrees North and Longitude
162.9 degrees East. 09W is moving west at 12 mph. It is expected
to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with little
change in forward speed through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. 09W is forecast to intensify
through tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 010333
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 09W Advisory Number 1
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP092026
133 PM ChST Wed Jul 1 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG...
...TD 09W WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
MARIANAS...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...8.9N 162.9E

About 145 miles east-southeast of Ujelang
About 175 miles south-southeast of Enewetak
About 195 miles west of Ujae
About 240 miles northeast of Pingelap
About 245 miles north of Kosrae
About 760 miles east of Chuuk
About 760 miles south-southwest of Wake
About 1265 miles east-southeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...west...275 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 09W
was located near Latitude 8.9 degrees North and Longitude
162.9 degrees East. 09W is moving west at 12 mph. It is expected
to make a slight turn toward the west-northwest with little
change in forward speed through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are 30 mph. 09W is forecast to intensify
through tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National
Weather Service at 800 PM ChST.

$$

Doll


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 09W NWP 260701011702
2026070100 09W NINE 001 01 275 10 SATL XTRP 060
T000 087N 1633E 025
T012 095N 1618E 030
T024 106N 1600E 040 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 116N 1580E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 124N 1559E 060 R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T060 127N 1539E 070 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 130N 1523E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 138N 1488E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 152N 1442E 115 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 220 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 8.7N 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 9.5N 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 10.6N 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 11.6N 158.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 12.4N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 12.7N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.0N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.8N 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.2N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 162.9E.
01JUL26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
151 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
//
0926062618 39N1675E 15
0926062700 45N1676E 15
0926062706 49N1679E 15
0926062712 54N1677E 15
0926062718 58N1671E 15
0926062800 61N1665E 25
0926062806 67N1663E 25
0926062812 78N1663E 25
0926062818 88N1667E 25
0926062900 91N1678E 25
0926062906 90N1663E 20
0926062912 90N1659E 20
0926062918 88N1656E 20
0926063000 85N1652E 20
0926063006 86N1649E 20
0926063012 86N1646E 20
0926063018 86N1643E 20
0926070100 87N1633E 25
NNNN