Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DOUGLAS-26
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031621

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 128.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.07.2026 0 19.5N 128.4W 1003 31
0000UTC 04.07.2026 12 21.1N 129.0W 1005 30
1200UTC 04.07.2026 24 21.6N 129.7W 1007 28
0000UTC 05.07.2026 36 22.4N 130.8W 1010 27
1200UTC 05.07.2026 48 23.8N 131.6W 1012 24
0000UTC 06.07.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031621


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 030833
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 03 2026

...DOUGLAS BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 128.3W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Douglas was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 128.3 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near
8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today
and on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken over the next couple
of days and then dissipate by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on this system
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 030835
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 03 2026

DOUGLAS IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT PRODUCED
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND ITS LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED IN PROXY-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DUE
TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWED THE SYSTEM IS
STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN ITS NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE, AND THE EXTENT OF THOSE WINDS WAS SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. SINCE DOUGLAS IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL LOW, THIS
WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KT BASED
ON THE SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND MORE RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATED THE CENTER OF DOUGLAS IS
SLIGHTLY LEFT OF OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST (335/7 KT), BUT A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW BECOMES STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION ADJUSTMENT, THE
NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED TO THE LEFT, WHICH BRINGS IT
CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO STRENGTHENING WESTERLY SHEAR, INCREASING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR,
AND DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THUS, THE LOW IS PREDICTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AND THEN
OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 19.4N 128.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 03/1800Z 20.2N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/0600Z 21.1N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 22.0N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 22.9N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 030832
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
0900 UTC FRI JUL 03 2026

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 128.3W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 128.3W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 128.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.1N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.9N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 128.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030422

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 127.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.07.2026 0 18.0N 127.5W 1002 30
1200UTC 03.07.2026 12 19.8N 128.4W 1003 31
0000UTC 04.07.2026 24 20.2N 129.5W 1005 32
1200UTC 04.07.2026 36 21.2N 130.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 05.07.2026 48 21.3N 132.2W 1010 26
1200UTC 05.07.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030422


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 127.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 127.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.7N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.7N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.7N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.5N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.4N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 127.6W.
03JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1020
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031600Z AND 040400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 030231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
800 PM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026

...DOUGLAS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 127.6W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 127.6 West. Douglas is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue overnight. A motion toward the
northwest is expected on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Douglas should begin to weaken overnight and is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 030232
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
800 PM PDT THU JUL 02 2026

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DOUGLAS IS FADING AS THE CYCLONE
ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. IT ALSO APPEARS LIKE THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE ALSO BECOMING MISALIGNED DUE TO INCREASING
SHEAR. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT KEEPING
DOUGLAS A TROPICAL STORM, IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT DUE TO
ITS PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATERS INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT.
ALL GUIDANCE SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS, AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. DOUGLAS SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A
DEEP-CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT LOW EARLY TOMORROW, AS SHOWN BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, AND THIS
APPROXIMATE TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL LEFTWARD
BEND ON FRIDAY AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS STEERED MORE BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION,
THOUGH THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND TRACKER LIES A FAIR DISTANCE NORTHEAST
OF MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OUT
OF DEFERENCE FOR THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTION.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 18.8N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 19.7N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/0000Z 20.7N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z 21.7N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z 22.5N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 23.4N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 030231
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
0300 UTC FRI JUL 03 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 127.6W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....100NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 127.6W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 127.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.7N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.7N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.7N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.4N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 127.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 007 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.7N 127.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 127.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.8N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.0N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.0N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 21.8N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.6N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 23.4N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 127.4W.
02JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1055
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031000Z AND 032200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 022031
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
200 PM PDT THU JUL 02 2026

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF DOUGLAS DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION IN A RAGGED BAND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE, AND A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT SHOWED WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 KT. BASED
ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 345/6 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 H OR SO, FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS STEERED MORE BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND INDEED MUCH OF IT LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN
SHOWS LESS OF A TURN THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND CONSEQUENTLY IS ON
THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY 48-72 H. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
LIES NEAR THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.

DOUGLAS IS NOW PASSING OVER THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS EXPERIENCING
10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER WATER, AND THE CYCLONE
IS ALSO LIKELY TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR. BASED ON THESE FACTORS, DOUGLAS
SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STOP PRODUCING CONVECTION AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW TOMORROW BY THE 24 H FORECAST POINT, WITH THE REMNANT
LOW PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.0N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 20.0N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 21.0N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 21.8N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z 22.6N 130.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 23.4N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 022030
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026

...DOUGLAS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 127.4W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 127.4 West. Douglas is
now moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue tonight. A motion toward the
northwest is expected on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected for the next several hours. A
weakening trend is forecast beginning late tonight, and Douglas is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 022030
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
2100 UTC THU JUL 02 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 127.4W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....100NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 127.4W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 127.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.0N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.8N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.6N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.4N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 127.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021621

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 127.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.07.2026 0 16.9N 127.4W 1001 31
0000UTC 03.07.2026 12 17.7N 127.9W 1002 30
1200UTC 03.07.2026 24 19.5N 128.5W 1003 31
0000UTC 04.07.2026 36 20.4N 129.1W 1004 35
1200UTC 04.07.2026 48 21.0N 130.2W 1007 27
0000UTC 05.07.2026 60 21.9N 131.2W 1010 25
1200UTC 05.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021621


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.1N 127.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 127.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.2N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.5N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.6N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.5N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 22.3N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.1N 131.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 127.2W.
02JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1081
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS 1003
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 021431
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
800 AM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026

...DOUGLAS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD COOLER WATER...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 127.1W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1895 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 127.1 West. Douglas is
moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A gradual turn to the northwest is
forecast later tonight through the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. A weakening trend is
forecast beginning tonight into Friday, and Douglas is expected to
become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 021432
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
800 AM PDT THU JUL 02 2026

GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE
DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF CONVECTION, THE CONVECTION
IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND LOCATED MAINLY IN A NEARLY LINEAR BAND TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE, AND GIVEN
THE RATHER RAGGED APPEARANCE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/5 KT. A NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 12 H OR SO AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER THAT, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES THAT DOUGLAS SHOULD TURN GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO
THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.

DOUGLAS IS NOW PASSING OVER THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS EXPERIENCING
10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER WATER, AND DRY AIR IS
LIKELY TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THIS, THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES THAT DOUGLAS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING A DEPRESSION SOMETIME TONIGHT, A REMNANT
LOW SOMETIME ON FRIDAY, AND DISSIPATING BY 96 H. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.4N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.2N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.5N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 20.6N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 21.5N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z 22.3N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z 23.1N 131.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 021431
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
1500 UTC THU JUL 02 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 127.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 127.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 127.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.5N 127.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.6N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.5N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.3N 130.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.1N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 127.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
WARNING ATCG MIL 04E NEP 260702092158
2026070206 04E DOUGLAS 005 01 350 05 SATL 030
T000 167N 1271W 035 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 000 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 178N 1273W 035 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 190N 1276W 030
T036 202N 1282W 030
T048 212N 1288W 025
T060 221N 1297W 025
T072 230N 1306W 020
AMP
036HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
048HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
060HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
072HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 16.7N 127.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 127.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.8N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.0N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.2N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.2N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.1N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 23.0N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 127.2W.
02JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 04E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1102
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.
//
0426062818 111N1222W 15
0426062900 112N1224W 15
0426062906 114N1226W 15
0426062912 115N1228W 15
0426062918 116N1230W 20
0426063000 120N1234W 20
0426063006 124N1240W 25
0426063012 128N1250W 25
0426063018 131N1264W 25
0426070100 136N1266W 25
0426070106 143N1268W 30
0426070112 149N1269W 30
0426070118 155N1269W 35
0426070200 162N1270W 35
0426070206 167N1271W 35
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 020835
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Deep convection continues to burst north of the low-level center of
Douglas, with a broken convective band displaced to the southeast
this morning. Microwave imagery showed that the low-level center is
located south of the ongoing convection. Satellite intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS range between 35 and 40 knots, with the
latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB remaining T2.5/35 kt.
Unfortunately, scatterometer missed the system tonight, which would
have helped with the current intensity and wind radii. Given the
latest estimates, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The storm continues to move generally northward around 6 kt. This
motion should continue today as the storm moves around the western
periphery of a mid-level ridge. On Friday, a turn to the northwest
than west is forecast as the system weakens and is steered by the
low-level flow. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous
and lies between the Google DeepMind and HCCA corrected consensus
aids.

Douglas has only 6 to 12 hours before it encounters a less favorable
environment with drier mid-level RH, increasing vertical wind shear,
and cooler sea surface temperatures. Although not explicitly
reflected in the official intensity forecast, a brief period of
slight strengthening remains possible during the next several hours.
However, by tonight a weakening trend should begin and Douglas is
forecast to struggle to maintain deep convection in about 24–36
hours and should degenerate into a remnant low during that period.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and is in good
agreement with the latest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 17.0N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.8N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.0N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 20.2N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z 21.2N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z 22.1N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 23.0N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 020831
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
200 AM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026

...DOUGLAS MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 127.1W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 127.1 West. Douglas is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A gradual turn to the northwest is
forecast later tonight through the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Although some slight strengthening is possible the next several
hours, a weakening trend is forecast tonight into Friday. Douglas is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 020831
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
0900 UTC THU JUL 02 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 127.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.8N 127.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.0N 127.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.1N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.0N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 127.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 020421

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 127.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.07.2026 0 16.1N 127.1W 1001 30
1200UTC 02.07.2026 12 17.2N 127.4W 1000 32
0000UTC 03.07.2026 24 17.9N 128.0W 1001 30
1200UTC 03.07.2026 36 20.1N 128.8W 1002 33
0000UTC 04.07.2026 48 20.7N 129.1W 1004 33
1200UTC 04.07.2026 60 21.4N 129.7W 1007 25
0000UTC 05.07.2026 72 22.5N 130.5W 1009 27
1200UTC 05.07.2026 84 22.9N 131.6W 1011 25
0000UTC 06.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020421


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 020410

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 127.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.07.2026 16.1N 127.1W WEAK
12UTC 02.07.2026 17.2N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.07.2026 17.8N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2026 20.0N 128.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2026 20.7N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2026 21.4N 129.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2026 22.5N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2026 22.9N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020410


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 020232
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Convection is increasing on the northern side of Douglas, albeit a
fair distance away from the center of the large circulation. There
has been little change in recent satellite classifications, so the
initial wind speed will stay 35 kt. Douglas basically has the
overnight convective maximum period left to intensify before it
encounters drier air, higher shear, and cooler SSTs. Thus the NHC
intensity forecast shows a brief peak at 12 h and then a slow
weakening until dissipation. None of the global models are
producing any organized convection after 36 h, so that will be the
expected time Douglas becomes a remnant low. Little change was made
to the prior intensity forecast.

Douglas continues moving northward at about 6 kt. This motion is
forecast through Thursday as the storm moves between a mid-level
ridge to the east and a mid-level trough to the west. On Friday, a
northwest turn is anticipated as the then weaker system becomes more
steered by the low-level flow. The biggest change to note is that
much of the skillful guidance is keeping this system intact for
longer due to the nearby trough. The result is the system gains
more latitude by the end of the forecast before succumbing to very
hostile conditions. The latest NHC track forecast is shifted to the
north especially beyond 24 hours, but still lies south of the Google
DeepMind and NOAA corrected-consensus HCCA models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.2N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 18.4N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 19.7N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0000Z 20.9N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1200Z 21.8N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 020231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026

...DOUGLAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 127.0W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 127.0 West. Douglas is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue into Thursday. A gradual turn to the
northwest is forecast late this week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible overnight before a steady
weakening begins later on Thursday. Douglas is forecast to become
a post-tropical cyclone on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 020231
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
0300 UTC THU JUL 02 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 127.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 127.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.2N 127.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.4N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.7N 127.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.9N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 127.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 012039
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
200 PM PDT WED JUL 01 2026

A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTER, WITH A FEW 30-33 KT
WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF CENTER. THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 35 KT, AND VARIOUS OTHER OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 31-35 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA AND INCREASING
BANDING FEATURES, THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
DOUGLAS WITHIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT 35 KT.

DOUGLAS IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 350/6 KT. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS TO THE EAST IN THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST 24 H AND LIES IN NEAR
HCCA, AND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND. TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK, A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND TURNS INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST BEYOND 24 H HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT AND LIES AMONG VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST LOW AND MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND. AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, COOLER WATERS AND DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND
DOUGLAS MAY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION BY THIS
WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
48 H, DISSIPATING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 15.7N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.7N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.7N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 18.8N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/0600Z 20.5N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 133.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 012036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
200 PM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 127.0W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 127.0 West. Douglas is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue into Thursday. A gradual turn to the
northwest is forecast late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected tonight, followed by a gradual
weakening trend starting on Thursday. Douglas is forecast to become
post-tropical on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 012036
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
2100 UTC WED JUL 01 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 127.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 127.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 126.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.7N 127.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.7N 127.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.8N 127.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.7N 128.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.5N 129.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 130.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 133.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 127.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.07.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2026 0 14.8N 126.6W 1003 32
0000UTC 02.07.2026 12 16.0N 127.0W 1002 29
1200UTC 02.07.2026 24 17.1N 127.6W 1001 29
0000UTC 03.07.2026 36 18.4N 128.3W 1002 30
1200UTC 03.07.2026 48 20.0N 129.2W 1003 35
0000UTC 04.07.2026 60 21.1N 129.7W 1005 31
1200UTC 04.07.2026 72 21.2N 131.0W 1007 27
0000UTC 05.07.2026 84 21.9N 131.8W 1010 27
1200UTC 05.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011622


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 011611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.07.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP042026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2026 14.7N 126.6W WEAK
00UTC 02.07.2026 16.1N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2026 17.2N 127.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.07.2026 18.4N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2026 20.0N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2026 21.1N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.07.2026 21.2N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.07.2026 22.0N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011611


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 011450
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2026

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH/ITCZ.
A MICROWAVE PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER
WAS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, AND THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO REFLECT THIS.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 28-34
KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 5 KT, AND THIS
MOTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS TO
THE EAST IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, THEN WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND TURNS WESTWARD
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND LIES BETWEEN THE SIMPLE AND
CORRECTED-CONSENSUS AIDS.

FOUR-E IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST LOW AND MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST,
AND FOUR-E IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT, WHICH IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY AIDS.
HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD INTO COOLER WATERS. BY FRIDAY, INCREASING SHEAR AND
DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY 48 H, DISSIPATING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.8N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.6N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.6N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1200Z 19.7N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1200Z 20.7N 132.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 011449
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
800 AM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 126.7W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 126.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue into Thursday. A gradual turn
to the northwest is forecast late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Adams/Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 011448
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
1500 UTC WED JUL 01 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 126.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 126.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 126.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.6N 126.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.6N 126.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 127.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.6N 127.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.7N 129.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.7N 132.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 126.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 010836
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026

The area of low pressure (95E) over the western East Pacific has
continued to become better organized over the last 12 hours.
Persistent deep convection has developed primarily over the eastern
and southern portions of the circulation, with curved banding
features becoming well defined. Recent scatterometer data
indicate that the system has developed a closed, although somewhat
elongated, low-level circulation with maximum winds around 30 kt.
Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates have increased to T1.5
from TAFB. Based on these developments, the system has been
designated as Tropical Depression Four-E, with an initial intensity
of 30 kt.

The depression is moving north-northwestward (345/6 kt), and this
general motion is forecast to continue over the next couple of days
along the western periphery of a ridge over the central portion of
the eastern Pacific basin. Models are in fairly good agreement with
this general motion, and the official NHC forecast lies near the
simple and corrected-consensus aids. Towards the end of the period,
as the system weakens and turns westward into the low-level flow,
there is slight timing differences of when that occurs based on the
convective structure. The NHC forecast continues to lie near or
just to the left of the consensus aids towards the end of the
period.

The system has about a day or so to strengthen within a favorable
low-shear, moist environment, supported by upper-level divergence.
The official forecast has the system strengthening into a tropical
storm later today, which is good agreement with the latest intensity
aids. However, as the system moves north-northwestward, it will
encounter cooler SSTs along its track. In about 36–48 hours, wind
shear is forecast to increase, and the system will move into a drier
mid-level airmass. Given the combination of cooler SSTs and the
increasingly unfavorable environment, the system is forecast to
weaken and will eventually struggle to sustain deep convection.
Simulated IR imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggests the system
could become devoid of deep convection by around 60 hours. Thus, the
NHC forecast calls for the system to weaken into a post-tropical
remnant low at that time, and dissipating into an open trough by
the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 14.5N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.2N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.3N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 17.4N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.4N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 19.2N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z 20.3N 132.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 010835
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026
200 AM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORMS IN WESTERN EAST PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 126.9W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 126.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 010833
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
0900 UTC WED JUL 01 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.9W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 126.9W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 126.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.2N 127.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.3N 127.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.4N 127.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 127.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 126.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=