Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FIVE-E-26 Off-shore on 14 Jul 2026 21:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FIVE-E-26

Off-shore

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GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

14/07 20:41 WTPZ35KNHC142040

14/07 20:41 WTPZ45KNHC142040

14/07 20:40 WTPZ25KNHC142040

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 142040
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 109.2W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ=

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 142040
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026

OVER THE PAST DAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DISTURBANCE WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
(96E) HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T-2.5/35 KT. A RECENT ASCAT-C PASS
SHOWS A CLOSED, ALBEIT SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION,
WITH WIND SPEEDS THAT SUPPORT A 30-KT INTENSITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASS,
AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE LOW NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE, ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ARE BEING
INITIATED AT THIS TIME.

THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED QUICKLY WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 275/16 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN A BIT IN A DAY OR TWO,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
SPREAD AFTER THAT. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND THE TVCN SIMPLE CONSENSUS
MODELS.

THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVELING THROUGH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH VERY WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AS THE CYCLONE WORKS ON DEVELOPING A CORE. AFTER THAT TIME, STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MIDDLE
AND HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE, IN BETWEEN THE
WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE STRONGER STATISTICAL MODELS.
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN WHAT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 14.9N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 14.9N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 15.4N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.7N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 22.2N 126.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 142040
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 109.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 109.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.4N 118.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.2N 126.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 109.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ=

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