Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FAUSTO-26 Off-shore from 19 Jul 2026 03:00 UTC to 20 Jul 2026 15:00 UTC

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 201600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FAUSTO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FAUSTO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 116.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 116.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.4N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.4N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.1N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.6N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.9N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.3N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.0N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.1N 136.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201600Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 116.5W.
20JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FAUSTO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1172
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 201200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202200Z, 210400Z, 211000Z AND 211600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 201434
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fausto Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
800 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...FAUSTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 116.4W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 116.4 West. Fausto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A decrease
in forward speed and a motion toward the northwest is expected
during the next day or two. A turn back to the west-northwest is
expected on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during
the next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a
hurricane later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west
coast of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday, and persist for
a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 201435
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
800 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2026

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND FAUSTO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GAIN
STRENGTH. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, IS
STILL NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN NUDGED UP TO 55 KT, WHICH IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE LATEST
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE, AND SINCE FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. IN FACT, THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT
THERE IS ABOUT 1 IN 3 CHANCE THAT FAUSTO COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SINCE IT APPEARS TO HAVE A
DEVELOPING COMPACT CORE IN SATELLITE IMAGES. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND SHOWS
FAUSTO BECOMING A HURRICANE TONIGHT AND APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK ONCE FAUSTO MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR.

THE STORM IS SLOWLY GAINING LATITUDE, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATED TO BE 295/11 KT. FAUSTO WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LEFT BEHIND BY ELIDA. BY WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM, AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE FAUSTO TO MOVE FASTER TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE IN THAT DIRECTION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 13.5N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 14.4N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 15.4N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 16.1N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 16.6N 122.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 16.9N 124.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 17.3N 126.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 19.1N 136.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 201433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1500 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 116.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 116.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 116.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.4N 117.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 140SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.4N 119.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.1N 120.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.6N 122.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.9N 124.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.3N 126.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 19.1N 136.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 116.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 201000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FAUSTO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FAUSTO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 115.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 115.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.8N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.0N 118.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.9N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.4N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.9N 123.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.3N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.9N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.8N 135.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
201000Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 115.8W.
20JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FAUSTO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1205
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 200600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201600Z, 202200Z, 210400Z AND 211000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (ELIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 200833
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
200 AM PDT MON JUL 20 2026

ALTHOUGH MODEST NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPART A
SLIGHT TILT TO THE VORTEX, A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS ALLOWED THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT, THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION, WHICH WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASS. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SAMPLED PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF
AROUND 45 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.
BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 290/10
KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF ELIDA, STEERING FAUSTO ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS
WESTWARD, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW AND BEND
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, FAUSTO SHOULD
RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHILE ACCELERATING LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

ALTHOUGH MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO FAUSTO'S
ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, DEEP MOISTURE,
AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH FAUSTO FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 60 HOURS OR AROUND MIDWEEK.
THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH ABOUT 60 H, THEN LIES NEAR
THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 12.9N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 13.8N 116.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 15.9N 119.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 16.9N 123.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 17.3N 125.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0600Z 17.9N 130.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/0600Z 18.8N 135.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 200832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fausto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...FAUSTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 115.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was
located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 115.6 West. Fausto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected
through Tuesday. The cyclone is forecast to slow somewhat through
Wednesday before gradually increasing its forward speed later in the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the
next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 200832
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 115.6W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 75SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 115.6W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.8N 116.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 140SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 130SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.9N 119.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 123.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.3N 125.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 17.9N 130.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.8N 135.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 110SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 115.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 200234
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
800 PM MST SUN JUL 19 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO'S CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED NEAR THE CENTER, WITH A
WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE T3.0/45 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 KT. GIVEN
THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, OR 310/10 KT.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT 96 H, WITH THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING SOMEWHAT
THEREAFTER. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD IN THE
WAKE OF ELIDA, STEERING FAUSTO ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SLOW AND TURN SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RESUMING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHILE ACCELERATING LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, DEEP MOISTURE, AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG FAUSTO'S FORECAST TRACK. ACCORDINGLY,
FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 H, AND A PERIOD
OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY BY MIDWEEK.
THEREAFTER, GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND A SOMEWHAT DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH ABOUT 60 H, THEN LIES NEAR
THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 12.6N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 13.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 14.5N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 15.6N 119.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 16.3N 120.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 17.1N 124.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 17.7N 128.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 18.5N 134.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 200231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
800 PM MST SUN JUL 19 2026

...FAUSTO STEADILY STRENGTHENING...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 114.7W
ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST. FAUSTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW SOMEWHAT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND FAUSTO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 200231
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
0300 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 120SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 114.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.3N 116.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.5N 117.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 130SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.6N 119.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.3N 120.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.1N 124.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.7N 128.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.5N 134.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 114.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06E (FAUSTO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FAUSTO) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 112.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 112.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.1N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.2N 115.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.4N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.3N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.7N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.0N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.6N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.5N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 112.8W.
19JUL26. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FAUSTO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1253
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191800Z IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200400Z, 201000Z, 201600Z AND 202200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 192036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fausto Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
200 PM MST Sun Jul 19 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 112.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 112.7 West. Fausto is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and a
west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a
hurricane by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 192036
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
200 PM MST SUN JUL 19 2026

THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED IN APPEARANCE, WITH LESS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ELONGATION THAN SEEN EARLIER TODAY. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM SHOWED A BELIEVABLE 32-KT SURFACE
WIND VECTOR OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, AND TAFB GAVE A SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.5. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE AIDT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION, THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO
ON THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW OVER ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION, BUT THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11 KT. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE,
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL STORM ELIDA, TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD BACK WESTWARD IN ELIDA'S
WAKE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE JUST ENOUGH REMAINING
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO INDUCE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OF FAUSTO DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FAUSTO LOOKS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STEADY TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A VERY
MOIST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR MASS. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF
RI, AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST EXPLICITLY SHOWS RI
OCCURRING IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD
OCCUR SOONER DEPENDING ON HOW SOON FAUSTO DEVELOPS A
WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 12.4N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 13.1N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 14.2N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 15.4N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 16.3N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 16.7N 120.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 17.0N 121.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 17.6N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 18.5N 131.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 192036
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
2100 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 112.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 112.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.1N 114.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.2N 115.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.4N 117.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 118.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.7N 120.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 17.0N 121.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 17.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N 131.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 112.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 191608

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 125.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.07.2026 21.5N 125.7W MODERATE
00UTC 20.07.2026 23.4N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2026 26.0N 127.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.4N 127.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 30.9N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2026 33.4N 126.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 111.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.07.2026 12.5N 111.5W WEAK
00UTC 20.07.2026 12.8N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2026 13.9N 116.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 15.5N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 16.3N 120.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 17.2N 121.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 18.0N 122.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 18.3N 124.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 18.5N 126.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 18.4N 129.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 18.0N 132.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 17.6N 135.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2026 17.5N 138.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 18.1N 141.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2026 18.6N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 27.2N 85.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 19.07.2026 27.2N 85.1W WEAK
00UTC 20.07.2026 28.0N 84.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 20.07.2026 27.5N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.2N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 28.8N 85.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 29.3N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 29.5N 87.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 29.2N 88.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 28.0N 90.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 28.1N 93.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 9.6N 97.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.07.2026 9.5N 99.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.07.2026 9.8N 101.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 11.1N 103.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2026 11.5N 106.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 12.8N 109.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2026 13.3N 111.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 15.0N 177.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.07.2026 14.7N 178.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 45.3N 13.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.07.2026 45.3N 13.3E WEAK

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191608

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 111.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 111.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 12.8N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.7N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.9N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.9N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.5N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.9N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.5N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.4N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 111.9W.
19JUL26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1272 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191200Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (ELIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

0000349500
00001

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 191441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
800 AM MST Sun Jul 19 2026

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 111.7W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 111.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple
of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today
and become a hurricane by Monday night or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 191442
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
800 AM MST SUN JUL 19 2026

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET VERY PROMINENT AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
ALSO, MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE IS NOT
WELL DEFINED AT THE MOMENT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE SATELLITE CONSENSUS, SATCON,
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12 KT. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DEPARTING
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA. AS ELIDA MOVES FARTHER NORTH, THE RIDGE IS
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUED GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS,
HCCA, TRACK.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE
CONDUCTIVE FOR STRENGTHENING, WITH ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING THE
COOLING OF OCEAN WATERS DUE TO THE PREVIOUS PASSAGE OF TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS REFLECTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.
THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE CYCLONE
BECOMING A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS
SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 12.4N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 12.8N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 13.7N 115.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 15.9N 118.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 16.5N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 16.9N 121.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 17.5N 125.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 18.4N 130.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 191440
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
1500 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 111.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 111.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 111.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.8N 113.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.7N 115.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.9N 118.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.9N 121.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.4N 130.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 110.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 110.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.5N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.2N 114.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.4N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.5N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.3N 119.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.8N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.3N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.2N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 110.8W.
19JUL26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1308 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05E (ELIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 190837
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
200 AM MST SUN JUL 19 2026

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, AFTER THE PRIOR ADVISORY, AN
ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD
AND IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGES. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB WAS T2.5/35 KT, BUT THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE STILL IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AT 30 KT THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 290/12 KT.
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER MEXICO, THOUGH A WEAKNESS EXISTS TO THE NORTHWEST,
CREATED BY THE DEPARTING TROPICAL STORM ELIDA. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD, REMOVING
THIS WEAKNESS. THUS, WHILE TD6-E MAY GAIN A BIT OF LATITUDE IN THE
24-48 H PERIOD, A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY EVEN TURN A BIT
LEFTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PRIOR TRACK FORECAST, BUT
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE TVCN AND GDMI TRACK AIDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS IT MAY TAKE 12-24 H
FOR THE DEPRESSION'S WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN ITS SHORT-TERM STRUCTURE,
THESE FACTORS ALL APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR, AMPLE MOISTURE, VERY WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES). THUS, SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ESPECIALLY FROM 36-60 H WHERE A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPLICITLY FORECAST. THERE IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR
BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION
TAKES THE SYSTEM TOWARD OCEAN WATERS CHURNED UP BY THE CIRCULATION
OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA. IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER THIS
COOL WAKE, IT COULD LIMIT THE STORM'S PEAK INTENSITY BEYOND 72 H,
WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWING IT CLOSE TO STRADDLING THE 26 C
ISOTHERM. FOR NOW, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SHOWS A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 95 KT IN 72 H, JUST SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY,
WITH SOME MODEST WEAKENING SHOWN IN DAYS 4-5. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE LATEST GDMI AND HCCA INTENSITY
AIDS, BUT IS NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE HAFS-A/B GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 12.1N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 12.5N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 13.2N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 15.5N 117.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 16.3N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 17.3N 124.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 18.2N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 190834
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
200 AM MST Sun Jul 19 2026

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER
THIS WEEK OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 110.6W
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 110.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next two to
three days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few
days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today and become a hurricane by Monday night or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 190833
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
0900 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 110.6W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 110.6W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.2N 114.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N 117.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.3N 119.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 65NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.3N 124.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 18.2N 129.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 110.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 11.1N 108.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 108.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.9N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 12.6N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.4N 114.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 14.6N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.4N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.0N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.7N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.5N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 109.2W.
19JUL26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (SIX-E), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1382 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190000Z IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05E (ELIDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 190233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026
800 PM MST Sat Jul 18 2026

...SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS WELL
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...FORECAST TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 109.1W
ABOUT 805 MI...1290 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 109.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
two to three days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Sunday and
become a hurricane by Monday night or Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 190233
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
800 PM MST SAT JUL 18 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THUS,
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE HWRF
AND HMON SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN THE OTHER MODELS AFTER 36
H. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE DEPRESSION'S RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WIND IS 70-100 N MI, AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS
TO CONTRACT OR FOR THE CYCLONE TO FORM A NEW INNER WIND CORE.
ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED, THOUGH, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING, PARTICULARLY AFTER 24
H. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN TO 80
KT BY 60 H, AND THIS IS AT THE LOWER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST 95-KT PEAK INTENSITY IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL MODELS CALLING FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT 72-96 H. SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START BY 120 H SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE
CYCLONE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 11.3N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 11.9N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 12.6N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 13.4N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 14.6N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 16.0N 119.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 16.7N 122.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 190232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
0300 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 109.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 109.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.9N 110.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.6N 112.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.4N 114.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.0N 119.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 16.7N 122.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 109.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=

Global Telecommunication Service

Measurements Levels