Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for BERTHA-26
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 240235
TCDAT2

Remnants Of Bertha Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Surface observations over eastern Texas indicate that Bertha no
longer has a well-defined circulation, and has opened up into a
trough. Therefore, the system has dissipated, and this will be the
last advisory.

Bertha's remnants will likely continue to produce some locally heavy
rainfall over portions of eastern and southern Texas, where isolated
flash flooding is possible overnight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 30.0N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 240233
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2026

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 96.0W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 96.0W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 96.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 240233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Bertha Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...BERTHA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 96.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Bertha were located near
latitude 30.0 North, longitude 96.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Water levels may remain elevated through the next
high tide cycle along the Louisiana and Texas coastline but should
subside thereafter.

RAINFALL: The remnants of Bertha are expected to produce total
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals to 4 inches
tonight over South Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the remnants of Bertha will continue to
affect the Louisiana and Texas coast through tonight. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 232339
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...BERTHA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM NNE OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line,
Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bertha
was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 95.3 West. Bertha
is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Bertha is
likely to dissipate tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are still possible along
the upper Texas coast during the next couple of hours.

STORM SURGE: Water levels may remain elevated through the next
high tide cycle along the Louisiana and Texas coastline but should
subside thereafter.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches with isolated totals to 4 inches into tonight along the
Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated
flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue to affect the
Louisiana and Texas coast through tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 232037
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Bertha has been moving along the northern Gulf coast much of the
day, and it now appears to be inland over far eastern Texas. The
storm remains very asymmetric, with nearly all of the deep
convection over the southwest quadrant, which is now moving inland
over Texas. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago suggest that the
maximum winds have decreased. Based on that data, surface
observations, and its degraded appearance in satellite images, the
initial wind speed is lowered to 35 kt.

The poor organization of Bertha makes it hard to compute its
initial motion. In fact, the storm is becoming increasingly
elongated and might be opening up into a trough. Our best guess of
the initial motion is west-northwestward at 11 kt. However. the
global models suggest that the center could reform again to the
south during the next few hours. Regardless, Bertha is expected to
move across eastern Texas this evening, and it forecast to
dissipate tonight or on Friday.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are forecast in portions of the
warning area in Texas and Louisiana through the evening.

2. Isolated flash flooding remains possible along the Texas Gulf
Coast and South Texas into tonight.

3. Coastal flooding along the northern Gulf coast is expected to
gradually subside.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 29.8N 94.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.7N 97.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/R. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 232035
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 94.7W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 94.7W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 93.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N 97.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 94.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 232035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...BERTHA MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 94.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning east of the Vermilion/Cameron Parish
Line has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 94.7 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will
move across portions of eastern Texas during the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Bertha is expected to gradually weaken, and it is
forecast to dissipate tonight or on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
south the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Louisiana and Texas coasts within the warning area into the
evening.

STORM SURGE: Water levels may remain elevated through the next
high tide cycle along the Louisiana and Texas coastline but should
subside thereafter.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches with isolated totals to 4 inches into tonight along the
Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated
flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue to affect the
Louisiana and Texas coast through tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/R. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 232033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...BERTHA MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 94.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning east of the Vermilion/Cameron Parish
Line has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 94.7 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will
move across portions of eastern Texas during the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Bertha is expected to gradually weaken, and it is
forecast to dissipate tonight or on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
south the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of
the Louisiana and Texas coasts within the warning area into the
evening.

STORM SURGE: Water levels may remain elevated through the next
high tide cycle along the Louisiana and Texas coastline but should
subside thereafter.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches with isolated totals to 4 inches into tonight along the
Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated
flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue to affect the
Louisiana and Texas coast through tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/R. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 232032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 94.7W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 94.7W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 93.9W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N 97.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 94.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231759
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...BERTHA INLAND NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 93.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf Coast from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 93.8 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with
some increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will move across
portions of eastern Texas during the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bertha is expected to gradually weaken, and it is forecast
to dissipate in a day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the Louisiana and Texas coasts within the warning area
into the evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches through
Thursday night along Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall
may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/R. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231740
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
100 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...BERTHA INLAND NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 93.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM NE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf Coast from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 93.8 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion with
some increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will move across
portions of eastern Texas during the next several hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Bertha is expected to gradually weaken, and it is forecast
to dissipate in a day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the Louisiana and Texas coasts within the warning area
into the evening.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches through
Thursday night along Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall
may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/R. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 231622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.07.2026

HURRICANE FAUSTO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 124.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.07.2026 0 17.8N 124.7W 984 48
0000UTC 24.07.2026 12 18.4N 127.7W 985 49
1200UTC 24.07.2026 24 18.7N 130.3W 985 49
0000UTC 25.07.2026 36 19.2N 133.0W 989 47
1200UTC 25.07.2026 48 19.6N 135.4W 991 44
0000UTC 26.07.2026 60 20.1N 137.7W 995 39
1200UTC 26.07.2026 72 20.4N 139.9W 998 38
0000UTC 27.07.2026 84 21.1N 142.6W 1002 35
1200UTC 27.07.2026 96 21.8N 145.8W 1006 32
0000UTC 28.07.2026 108 22.8N 148.9W 1009 28
1200UTC 28.07.2026 120 23.7N 152.3W 1011 26
0000UTC 29.07.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 92.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.07.2026 0 29.5N 92.4W 1005 36
0000UTC 24.07.2026 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.9N 100.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.07.2026 24 9.9N 100.8W 1005 27
0000UTC 25.07.2026 36 10.1N 102.9W 1002 31
1200UTC 25.07.2026 48 11.0N 105.6W 1001 39
0000UTC 26.07.2026 60 11.7N 108.6W 999 45
1200UTC 26.07.2026 72 12.1N 110.8W 995 51
0000UTC 27.07.2026 84 13.1N 112.9W 988 59
1200UTC 27.07.2026 96 14.8N 114.7W 974 77
0000UTC 28.07.2026 108 15.9N 116.8W 972 75
1200UTC 28.07.2026 120 16.7N 118.7W 972 69
0000UTC 29.07.2026 132 17.3N 120.3W 973 69
1200UTC 29.07.2026 144 18.0N 121.8W 975 63
0000UTC 30.07.2026 156 18.8N 123.3W 975 65
1200UTC 30.07.2026 168 19.6N 125.2W 981 58

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 10.9N 171.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.07.2026 48 11.3N 173.0W 1004 27
0000UTC 26.07.2026 60 12.4N 176.1W 1004 30
1200UTC 26.07.2026 72 12.9N 179.8W 1003 29
0000UTC 27.07.2026 84 13.2N 176.7E 1000 33
1200UTC 27.07.2026 96 13.4N 173.5E 998 35
0000UTC 28.07.2026 108 13.9N 170.9E 992 44
1200UTC 28.07.2026 120 14.0N 168.6E 988 42
0000UTC 29.07.2026 132 15.0N 166.7E 985 46
1200UTC 29.07.2026 144 16.1N 165.1E 981 49
0000UTC 30.07.2026 156 17.8N 163.1E 977 51
1200UTC 30.07.2026 168 19.7N 161.0E 970 59

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 35.7N 74.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.07.2026 60 35.7N 74.1W 1012 22
1200UTC 26.07.2026 72 36.2N 72.0W 1007 28
0000UTC 27.07.2026 84 36.3N 70.2W 1005 25
1200UTC 27.07.2026 96 36.5N 68.3W 1006 27
0000UTC 28.07.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 28.8N 73.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.07.2026 132 29.3N 72.5W 1010 25
1200UTC 29.07.2026 144 30.7N 70.2W 1011 29
0000UTC 30.07.2026 156 33.6N 66.7W 1012 30
1200UTC 30.07.2026 168 37.2N 62.7W 1010 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231621


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 231611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.07.2026

HURRICANE FAUSTO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 124.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.07.2026 17.8N 124.7W MODERATE
00UTC 24.07.2026 18.4N 127.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 18.6N 130.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 19.2N 133.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.07.2026 19.5N 135.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 20.1N 137.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2026 20.5N 140.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.07.2026 21.1N 142.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.07.2026 21.7N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.07.2026 22.8N 148.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.07.2026 23.7N 152.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 92.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.07.2026 29.5N 92.4W WEAK
00UTC 24.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.0N 100.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.07.2026 10.0N 100.8W WEAK
00UTC 25.07.2026 10.1N 102.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2026 10.9N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 11.7N 108.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2026 12.1N 110.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2026 13.2N 112.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.07.2026 14.7N 114.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.07.2026 15.8N 116.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.07.2026 16.7N 118.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2026 17.3N 120.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2026 18.0N 121.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2026 18.8N 123.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2026 19.6N 125.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.3N 172.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.07.2026 11.3N 172.9W WEAK
00UTC 26.07.2026 12.3N 176.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2026 12.9N 179.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.07.2026 13.3N 176.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.07.2026 13.4N 173.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.07.2026 13.9N 170.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.07.2026 14.0N 168.6E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2026 15.0N 166.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2026 16.1N 165.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2026 17.8N 163.1E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.07.2026 19.7N 161.0E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 35.9N 73.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.07.2026 36.2N 72.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2026 36.3N 70.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.07.2026 36.5N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 28.8N 73.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.07.2026 29.3N 72.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.07.2026 30.7N 70.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2026 33.6N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2026 37.2N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231611


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 231441
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The center of Bertha has been moving along or just offshore of
southwestern Louisiana coast during the past few hours. Data from
the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft suggest that the
circulation is becoming increasingly elongated, likely due to the
storm's persistent convective asymmetry. In fact, infrared
satellite and radar images show almost all of the convection is
located south of the center, and there is large region of heavy rain
and embedded thunderstorms approaching the Texas coast. The initial
intensity is held at 40 kt, but these winds are occurring offshore
over the southern half of the circulation.

The storm has been moving erratically over the past 12 hours or so,
but smoothing through the wobbles and potential center reformations
yields a westward motion at 9 kt. Bertha is expected to move a
little faster to the west, on the south side of a mid-level ridge,
and that should bring the storm inland over Texas late this
afternoon or evening. Due to the poor structure of
Bertha and expected continued northerly vertical wind shear, little
change is intensity is anticipated before the storm makes its final
landfall in Texas. Bertha will likely become a weak remnant low
or dissipate entirely in about 24 hours.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along
the northwestern Gulf Coast from south central Louisiana to the
upper Texas coast today.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for portions of the
Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal
flooding continues.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the Texas Gulf Coast
and South Texas through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 29.6N 93.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 29.7N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 29.3N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231437
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...BERTHA MOVING WESTWARD VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
COAST...
...EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 93.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ENE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning east of Morgan City, Louisiana has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf Coast from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 93.2 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion with
some increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or
so. On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will move near or
along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts during the next several
hours, and then move inland over Texas this evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, and Bertha is
forecast to maintain tropical storm intensity until it reaches the
upper Texas coast later today. The system is expected to dissipate
inland over Texas late tonight or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast within the
warning area through today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches through
Thursday night along Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall
may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 231436
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 93.2W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 140SE 140SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 93.2W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 92.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.7N 95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 110SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.3N 98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 93.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 231147
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...BERTHA MOVING WESTWARD VERY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 92.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf Coast from the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish line,
Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 92.4 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A generally westward
motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
west-southwest on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts
through this afternoon, and then move farther inland over Texas
this evening and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, and Bertha is forecast
to maintain tropical storm intensity until it reaches the upper
Texas coast later today. Bertha is expected to dissipate inland
over Texas by tonight or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. The National Ocean Service station at Eugene
Island, Louisiana, recently reported sustained winds of 36 mph (58
km/h) with a wind gust of 45 mph (73 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast within the
warning area through today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches through tonight along
Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated
flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230838
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Radar data and surface observations indicate that the center of
Bertha has moved or re-formed offshore of the coast of southern
Louisiana. The storm is producing a large area of intense convection
over the southwestern quadrant, with the elongated low-level center
at the northeastern edge of the convection. Surface observations and
scatterometer data show that the maximum winds are near 40 kt and
the minimum central pressure is near 1003 mb. Coastal Doppler radar
data also shows that the mid-level center is displaced well to the
southwest of the low-level center, and that there has been a
persistent supercell thunderstorm with a mesocyclone moving westward
through Bertha's southwestern quadrant.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/11 kt. As before, the
steering mechanism is a large and strong mid-tropospheric
anticyclone over the south-central United States. Bertha should move
along the southern periphery of this feature for the next day or so,
with the center reaching the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana
coasts later today. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is
forecast until the cyclone dissipates. The new forecast track is
similar to the previous track. Some erratic motion could occur
before landfall due to possible center reformation caused by
convective bursts.

Continued moderate to strong northeasterly shear and dry air
entrainment should prevent significant strengthening before
landfall. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the cyclone is
forecast to dissipated between 36-48 h.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along
the northwestern Gulf Coast from south central Louisiana to the
upper Texas coast today.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for portions of the
Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal
flooding is expected.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the Texas Gulf Coast
and South Texas through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 29.0N 92.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 29.3N 94.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 29.0N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 28.5N 100.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230837
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 92.2W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 140SE 140SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 150SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 92.2W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 91.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.3N 94.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 130SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.0N 97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 100.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 92.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230837
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...BERTHA MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 92.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Louisiana
coast east of the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf Coast from the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish line,
Louisiana to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 92.2 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A generally westward
or west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight, followed
by a turn toward the west-southwest on Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana
and upper Texas coasts through this afternoon, and then move farther
inland into Texas this evening and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, and Bertha is forecast
to maintain tropical storm intensity up until it reaches the upper
Texas coast later today. Bertha is expected to dissipate inland
over Texas by tonight or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. The National Ocean Service
station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, recently reported sustained
winds of 39 mph (62 km/h) with a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). An
oil platform southeast of the center of Bertha recently reported
sustained winds of 56 mph (90 km/h) at an elevation of 102 ft
(31 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast within the
warning area through today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Bolivar, TX to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches through tonight along
Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated
flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230535
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

...BERTHA NOW SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...
...WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 91.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Louisiana
and Mississippi coasts north and east of the Plaquemines/St.
Bernard Parish line, including Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf Coast from the Plaquemines/St. Bernard Parish line,
Louisiana to Sargent, Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 91.6 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally westward
motion is expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper
Texas coasts through this afternoon, and then move farther inland
into Texas this evening and tonight.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected today, and Bertha is forecast to maintain
tropical storm intensity up until it reaches the upper Texas coast
later today. Bertha is expected to dissipate inland over Texas by
tonight or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the south of the center. An oil platform south of the
Louisiana coast recently reported sustained winds of 52 mph (84
km/h) and a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation of 82 ft
(25 m). Another oil platform located southwest of the center of
Bertha was recently hit by a severe thunderstorm and reported a wind
gust of 82 mph (132 km/h) at an elevation of 98 ft (30 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast within the
warning area through today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Alabama/Mississippi border to Port Bolivar, TX...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches through tonight along
Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce
isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230248
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

After making landfall in southeastern Louisiana earlier today,
Surface observations show that the center has become less well
defined. It appears, however, that the center has slipped a little
southwestward and close to the coast of south Louisiana. Most of
the deep convection continues to be south and southwest of the
center, out over the northern Gulf, due to the persistent
north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. The overall cloud pattern
is not very well organized, and is elongated from southwest to
northeast. The intensity estimate is held at 40 kt for this
advisory, with these winds occurring primarily over the Gulf waters.

Bertha has been moving a little south of west over the past several
hours, with the initial motion a faster 260/10 kt. The main
steering mechanism continues to be a large and strong
mid-tropospheric anticyclone over the south-central United States.
Bertha should move along the southern periphery of this high
pressure area for the next day or two, and is expected to briefly
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf waters on Thursday. The system
should cross the upper Texas coast later on Thursday and move
inland over Texas after that. The official forecast track is just
slightly south of the previous NHC prediction, mainly due to the
more southern location of the center, and is close to the latest
corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Since the storm should remain in a dry mid-level air mass with
continued strong north-northeasterly vertical wind shear through
Thursday, significant re-strengthening over the northwestern Gulf
waters is unlikely. The official intensity forecast is on the high
side of the model guidance, close to the SHIPS prediction.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along
the northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to southwestern Louisiana,
including the Metro New Orleans area, tonight and on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the upper
Texas coast on Thursday.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the Texas Gulf Coast
and South Texas through Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 29.4N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 29.2N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 29.1N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 29.0N 98.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 230244
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

After making landfall in southeastern Louisiana earlier today,
Surface observations show that the center has become less well
defined. It appears, however, that the center has slipped a little
southwestward and close to the coast of south Louisiana. Most of
the deep convection continues to be south and southwest of the
center, out over the northern Gulf, due to the persistent
north-northeasterly vertical wind shear. The overall cloud pattern
is not very well organized, and is elongated from southwest to
northeast. The intensity estimate is held at 40 kt for this
advisory, with these winds occurring primarily over the Gulf waters.

Bertha has been moving a little south of west over the past several
hours, with the initial motion a faster 260/10 kt. The main
steering mechanism continues to be a large and strong
mid-tropospheric anticyclone over the south-central United States.
Bertha should move along the southern periphery of this high
pressure area for the next day or two, and is expected to briefly
re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf waters on Thursday. The system
should cross the upper Texas coast later on Thursday and move
inland over Texas after that. The official forecast track is just
slightly south of the previous NHC prediction, mainly due to the
more southern location of the center, and is close to the latest
corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Since the storm should remain in a dry mid-level air mass with
continued strong north-northeasterly vertical wind shear through
Thursday, significant re-strengthening over the northwestern Gulf
waters is unlikely. The official intensity forecast is on the high
side of the model guidance, close to the SHIPS prediction.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along
the northern Gulf Coast from Mississippi to southwestern Louisiana,
including the Metro New Orleans area, tonight and on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the upper
Texas coast on Thursday.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the Texas Gulf Coast
and South Texas through Thursday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 29.4N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 29.2N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 29.1N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 29.0N 98.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 230242
TCMAT2


TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 91.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 140SE 140SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 91.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 90.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.2N 92.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.1N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 98.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 91.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 230242
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...BERTHA NEAR THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 91.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued west of Cameron Louisiana
to Sargent, Texas.

The Tropical Storm Watch for Lake Maurepas is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning east of the Alabama/Mississippi border
is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Mississippi border to Sargent, Texas
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 91.1 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A generally westward
motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast
track, the center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana
and upper Texas coasts through Thursday afternoon, and then move
farther inland into Texas Thursday evening and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so,
and Bertha is forecast to maintain tropical storm intensity
up until it reaches the upper Texas coast on Thursday. Bertha is
expected to dissipate inland over Texas by Thursday night or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. An oil platform south of the Louisiana coast
recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) at an
elevation of 82 ft (25 m).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast within the
warning area through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Alabama/Mississippi border to Port Bolivar, TX...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches through Thursday night
along Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce
isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 222338
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...BERTHA MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 90.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Cameron, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Cameron, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 90.5 West. Bertha is
moving a little south of west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
westward or west-southwestward motion is expected during the
next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will
move near or along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts through
Thursday, and then move farther inland into Texas Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day
or so, and Bertha is forecast to maintain tropical storm intensity
up until it reaches the upper Texas coast on Thursday. Bertha is
expected to dissipate inland over Texas by Thursday night or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) was recently
reported near Point a la Hache Louisiana.

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area through
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday or Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Alabama/Florida border to Port Bolivar, TX...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals of 6 inches through Friday
along the central to western Gulf Coast from Northwest Florida to
southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 222048
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Bertha's center made landfall on the eastern side of St. Bernard
Parish, Louisiana, around 2 pm CDT. The main part of the
circulation remains devoid of deep convection, although there is a
large and persistent convective complex ongoing south of the
Louisiana coast. Based on flight-level data from an earlier Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight and scatterometer data, the
maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt, primarily in a band well
to the south and southeast of the center over the Gulf waters.
These winds are likely to begin spreading onshore over parts of
extreme southeastern Louisiana later this evening as Bertha
continues moving westward.

After moving west-northwestward since last night, Bertha's center
appears to have resumed a westward motion over the past few hours.
The short-term track forecast is intriguing, with just about every
global model suggesting that the center will take a dip or re-form
to the southwest along the southern Louisiana coast as early as
this evening or tonight. Thereafter, the storm is expected to track
westward, moving very near the southwestern coast of Louisiana to
the upper Texas coast by Thursday afternoon. Despite this morning's
northward jog, the updated NHC track forecast is very close to the
previous prediction and is near the middle of the guidance
envelope. In this particular case, the forecast is a bit south of
the HCCA and GDMI guidance, which probably wouldn't handle a center
re-formation as well as the global models.

Model fields suggest that the prominent band of
tropical-storm-force winds to the east and south of the center will
persist through Thursday, and therefore only minimal weakening is
expected over the next 24 hours. The NHC forecast maintains Bertha
as a tropical storm for about the next 24 hours until the center
reaches the upper Texas coast. Global model fields suggest the
surface circulation will disintegrate shortly after the center
moves onshore the Texas coast. A remnant low forecast position is
provided inland over Texas at 36 hours, but it's possible the
system will have dissipated by then.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along
the northern Gulf Coast from Alabama to southwestern Louisiana,
including the Metro New Orleans area, tonight and on Thursday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible for the extreme southwestern
coast of Louisiana and upper Texas coast on Thursday.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.

3. A risk for isolated flash flooding shifts west along the Gulf
Coast from Northwest Florida to southern Texas through Thursday
night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 29.8N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 23/0600Z 29.6N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 23/1800Z 29.5N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 24/0600Z 29.4N 96.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 222047
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...CENTER OF BERTHA MOVING WESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED WESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 89.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to Cameron,
Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Cameron, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Cameron, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 89.8 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster westward
motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track,
the center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper
Texas coasts through Thursday, and then move farther inland into
Texas Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so,
and Bertha is forecast to maintain tropical storm intensity up
until it reaches the upper Texas coast on Thursday. Bertha is
expected to dissipate inland over Texas by Thursday night or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to
44 mph (71 km/h) were recently reported at New Orleans Lakefront
Airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area through
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Thursday or Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Alabama/Florida border to Port Bolivar, TX...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals of 6 inches through Friday
along the central to western Gulf Coast from Northwest Florida to
southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 222046
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 89.8W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 140SE 140SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 89.8W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 89.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.6N 91.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 130SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.5N 93.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.4N 96.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 89.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 221901
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
200 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MAKES LANDFALL IN ST. BERNARD PARISH,
LOUISIANA...

Satellite images indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Bertha
has made landfall near the Biloxi Wildlife Management Area in St.
Bernard Parish, Louisiana. The maximum sustained winds are estimated
to be 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 89.4W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221736
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...CENTER OF BERTHA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 89.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued east of the
Alabama/Florida border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 89.1 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to resume
later today and continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper
Texas coasts through Thursday, and then move farther inland into
Texas on Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, but Bertha could maintain tropical storm intensity
through late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently reported a
sustained wind of 36 mph (58 km/h) and a gust to 41 mph (66 km/h).

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Louisiana by tonight and along the upper Texas coast by Thursday or
Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Alabama/Florida border to Port Bolivar, TX...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals of 6 inches through Friday
along the central to western Gulf Coast from Northwest Florida to
southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 221452
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Bertha's satellite presentation has continued to degrade this
morning, with all of the associated deep convection having been
pushed well to the southwest of the exposed surface center due to
strong deep-layer shear. That said, dropsonde data from NOAA and
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure has changed very little from the previous
advisory. The NOAA aircraft measured a peak 750-mb flight-level
wind of 55 kt several hours ago, which equates to an initial
intensity of 45 kt. More recent aircraft data suggest those winds
may have decreased, but for now we'll continue to hold 45 kt in
anticipation of additional aircraft and scatterometer data over the
next few hours.

Bertha's center has been deviating a bit north of the forecast
track, and the current motion estimate is now 290/5 kt. Track model
guidance insists that Bertha should resume a westward motion today,
but wobbles and deviations like the current one are normal behavior
for such a highly sheared tropical cyclone. Once a westward motion
resumes, Bertha's center is likely to straddle the coast of
Louisiana through Thursday and then reach the upper Texas coast by
Thursday evening or night. The NHC track forecast lies along the
northern edge of the guidance suite, partially to account for the
recent northward jog and partially to closely follow the typically
reliable HCCA and GDMI guidance.

The expected weakening appears to be on the verge of starting, and
the main question for the forecast is how quickly will Bertha lose
intensity. Part of that equation is how much time the center will
spend over land, while the system also continues to contend with
strong northeasterly shear. The NHC intensity forecast maintains
Bertha as a minimal tropical storm through 36 hours (around the
time of a potential Texas landfall), but it's also possible that
the cyclone could weaken to a depression or remnant low by that
time. Like the track forecast, the intensity forecast is largely a
blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI guidance. A remnant low forecast
point is shown over Texas at 48 hours for continuity's sake, but
Bertha could have dissipated by that time.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to
southeastern Louisiana, including the Metro New Orleans area,
through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions
of the southwestern coast of Louisiana and upper Texas coast
tonight through late Thursday.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.

3. Isolated areas of flash flooding remain possible through Friday
morning along the central to western Gulf Coast from Northwest
Florida to southern Texas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 29.8N 88.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 29.6N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1200Z 29.5N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 24/0000Z 29.4N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 29.0N 98.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 221451
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 88.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 120SE 45SW 15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 88.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 88.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.6N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 92.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.0N 98.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 88.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221451
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...CENTER OF BERTHA WOBBLING SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 88.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 88.6 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to resume
later today and continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper
Texas coasts through Thursday, and then move farther inland into
Texas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Bertha
could maintain tropical storm intensity through late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Louisiana by tonight and along the upper Texas coast by Thursday or
Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Port Bolivar, TX to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals of 6 inches through Friday
along the central to western Gulf Coast from Northwest Florida to
southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 221145
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 88.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended westward to Sargent,
Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Sargent, Texas
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 88.5 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Friday with a little acceleration.
On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern
Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 49 mph (79 km/h) was recently
reported at the Pensacola Naval Air Station.

Dropsonde data from the NOAA aircraft indicate that the minimum
central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Louisiana by tonight and along the upper Texas coast by Thursday or
Thursday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Port Bolivar, TX to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals to 6 inches through Thursday
along the central to the western Gulf Coast from western Florida to
southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220845
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Since the previous advisory, Bertha's appearance has gone downhill,
with the deepest convective activity separating further south from
the low-level circulation which is now mostly exposed offshore of
the coast of Alabama. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission in
completing its last pass through Bertha found peak flight level
winds of 47 kt, and a minimum central pressure that has risen
slightly to 998 mb. While a dropsonde launched in the southeast side
of the circulation did find a 500 m layer mean wind of 54 kt, a
standard reduction from this layer still yields a slightly reduced
intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Given Bertha's current
appearance, this could be generous.

A combination of aircraft, radar, and satellite fixes indicate that
Bertha is moving due west at 270/4 kt. The primary steering feature
resulting in Bertha's short-term motion is a mid-level ridge that
has been sliding slowly eastward from the southern Plains to become
positioned north of the tropical storm. This evolution should result
in Bertha maintaining a westward heading over the next 24-36 h,
though continued sheared bursts of deep convection forming south of
the center may still act to tug it south of this steering motion.
One thing worth keeping an eye on is the possibility a new center
may try to reform under these convective bursts in the 24-36 h
time-frame like what is depicted in some of the hurricane-regional
models, though this is not reflected in the NHC track forecast at
this time. The latest track forecast is nearly on top of the
previous, but just a little faster, roughly in between the latest
Google DeepMind (GDMI) and HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA)
solutions.

Bertha's appearance, the presence of 25-30 kt of northeasterly
vertical wind shear, and land interaction are likely to result in
slow weakening over the next 24 h or so. After that point, Bertha's
future likely depends on if the circulation remains along the Gulf
coast, or if it attempts to reform further south under the
convective bursts in the northwestern portion of the Gulf. In the
former scenario, Bertha's circulation could open up into a trough
like in the 00z ECMWF and HWRF solutions. In the latter case, a new
center could reform further south and attempt to reorganize like in
the HAFS and GFS solutions. For what it's worth, the Google DeepMind
ensemble seems to be roughly split between these two possibilities.
For now, the NHC intensity forecast does not stray far from the
previous one, showing slow weakening before Bertha moves fully
inland over Texas in 48 h, becoming post-tropical and dissipating
shortly thereafter. This intensity forecast is roughly in the middle
of the guidance envelope and closest to the GDMI solution.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to
southeastern Louisiana, including the Metro New Orleans area,
through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions
of the southwestern coast of Louisiana tonight into Thursday.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.

3. Interests elsewhere in extreme western Louisiana and along the
Upper Texas Coast should monitor the progress of this system, as
additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of
that area later today.

4. Isolated areas of flash flooding remain possible through early
Friday along the central to the western Gulf Coast from western
Florida to southern Texas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 29.4N 88.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 29.4N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...ON THE COAST
24H 23/0600Z 29.3N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST
36H 23/1800Z 29.3N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0600Z 29.5N 96.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220841
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...BERTHA CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 88.3W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM ENE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Cameron, Louisiana
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 88.3 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue through Friday with a little acceleration.
On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern
Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast to continue over the next several
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. In the past hour, a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h)
was reported at Orange Beach Buoy, located offshore of the Alabama
coastline. An elevated oil platform located well offshore in the
Mississippi Canyon recently reported a sustained wind of 45 mph (72
km/h) with a gust up to 56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Louisiana by tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Cameron, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals to 6 inches through Thursday
along the central to the western Gulf Coast from western Florida to
southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220836
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 88.3W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 88.3W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 87.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.4N 89.4W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.3N 91.4W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.3N 93.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.5N 96.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 88.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220535
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...BERTHA MOVING WESTWARD WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 87.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Cameron, Louisiana
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located by Air Force Reserve aircraft near latitude 29.3 North,
longitude 87.9 West. Bertha is moving toward the west near 6 mph
(9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through
Friday. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the
northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue over the
next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. In the past hour, a wind gust of 40 mph (64 km/h)
was reported at Panama City Beach, Florida.

The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area
through the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in Louisiana by tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Cameron, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals to 6 inches through Thursday
along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida through southern
Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 220409

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.07.2026

HURRICANE FAUSTO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 120.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.07.2026 16.6N 120.0W STRONG
12UTC 22.07.2026 16.8N 121.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 17.5N 122.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 18.1N 124.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 18.9N 128.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 18.9N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 18.6N 134.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.07.2026 18.6N 136.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 19.5N 139.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2026 20.0N 142.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2026 20.8N 145.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.07.2026 21.7N 148.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.07.2026 22.8N 151.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 87.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.07.2026 29.2N 87.5W MODERATE
12UTC 22.07.2026 29.4N 88.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 28.6N 90.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 28.8N 92.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 28.9N 95.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 27.6N 99.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 9.2N 105.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.07.2026 9.4N 106.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 26.07.2026 10.3N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2026 11.4N 111.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.07.2026 12.3N 114.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.07.2026 13.3N 116.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.07.2026 14.1N 117.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 28.07.2026 15.0N 118.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.07.2026 15.9N 120.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 36.9N 63.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.07.2026 36.9N 63.5W WEAK
00UTC 29.07.2026 39.4N 57.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220409


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 220242
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

North-northeasterly vertical wind shear persists over Bertha this
evening. The storm continues to produce strong convection with
cloud tops colder than -70 deg C over its southern semicircle.
Reconnaissance aircraft and surface observations indicate that the
low-level center is near the northeastern edge of the main
convective mass. Tail Doppler radar winds from the NOAA aircraft
indicate that the vortex is tilted southward with height, likely due
to the shear. The central pressure is about the same as earlier
today and peak flight-level winds from the Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft support maintaining the current intensity
at 50 kt, although this may be slightly generous.

Based on the aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion
estimate is westward, or 270/5 kt. There is little change in the
track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Bertha had
been situated between two mid-level high centers, but the larger
high to the northwest, over the south-central United States, will
likely become the dominant steering mechanism. Bertha should move
generally westward on the southern side of this high, near or along
the northern Gulf coast, for the next 36-48 hours. Then the
cyclone, if it survives, should move over portions of southeastern
Texas. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC
prediction and close to the corrected consensus and Google DeepMind
guidance.

Bertha is likely to remain in an environment of strong vertical wind
shear and dry mid-level air for the next couple of days.
Additionally, the storm is expected to move at least partially over
southeastern Louisiana in 24 hours or so. Given the hostile
atmospheric conditions and partial interaction with land, a
weakening trend is likely to begin tomorrow. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the corrected consensus guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along
portions of the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle
westward to southeastern Louisiana, including the Metro New Orleans
area, through Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible for portions of the southwestern coast of Louisiana
Wednesday night and Thursday.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.

3. Interests elsewhere in extreme western Louisiana and along the
Upper Texas Coast should monitor the progress of this system, as
additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of
that area.

4. Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through
Thursday along the Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle
into southern Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 29.4N 87.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 29.4N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 29.3N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0000Z 29.3N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 24/1200Z 29.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 220241
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 87.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Cameron, Louisiana
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 87.7 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a generally
westward motion is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the
forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf
Coast during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Wednesday

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. In the past hour, a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h)
was reported in Petit Bois Island, Mississippi.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area tonight
through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in Louisiana by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Cameron, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals to 6 inches through Thursday
along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida through southern
Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 220240
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 87.7W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 120SE 60SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 87.7W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 87.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.4N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.3N 92.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.3N 95.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 97.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 87.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 212348
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 87.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Cameron, Louisiana
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 87.4 West. Bertha is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and a west-northwestward
or westward motion is expected Wednesday through Friday. On
the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf
Coast during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight, and gradual
weakening is forecast Wednesday through Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently
reported at Pensacola Beach, Florida.

The minimum central pressure reported by Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area tonight
through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in Louisiana by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Cameron, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through
Thursday along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida into
southern Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 212057
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Bertha remains a sheared tropical storm. The low-level center is
exposed again, with bursts of deep convection displaced to the south
by strong northerly shear. Scatterometer data from around 1520 UTC
indicated that the extent of the tropical-storm-force wind field was
larger than previous estimates, and the initial wind radii have been
expanded as a result. Surface observations today showed that
tropical-storm-force winds spread across some coastal portions of
the Florida Panhandle. The central pressure has leveled off around
995 mb based on the last aircraft pass through the center, and the
intensity is held at 50 kt based on earlier aircraft data. This
could be a bit generous, but an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
mission scheduled for tonight will help reassess the intensity.

After moving northward earlier today, Bertha appears to have resumed
a northwestward motion (305/5 kt). A mid-level ridge over the
central United States is expected to build eastward on Wednesday to
the north of Bertha. This should become the dominant steering
feature and cause Bertha to move generally westward through midweek.
This track will take the center of the storm near or along the
northern Gulf Coast and toward southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday.
From there, it is still unclear whether Bertha will survive its
interaction with land and/or redevelop under hostile conditions. The
GFS and UKMET models show the potential for center redevelopment off
the coast of Louisiana late Wednesday, while the ECMWF and Canadian
models favor a more inland solution with steady weakening. A notable
change is that the track guidance this cycle trended faster, and the
NHC forecast was sped up between 24-60 h to catch up to the simple
and multi-model consensus aids. Otherwise, there was little
cross-track change with this forecast update.

Based on its current structure and unrelenting shear, additional
strengthening seems unlikely. While convection should continue
pulsing to the south of Bertha's center, the NHC forecast shows
gradual weakening during the next 2-3 days in agreement with the
bulk of the intensity guidance. While this forecast shows Bertha
surviving as a sheared tropical cyclone across the northern Gulf, it
remains possible that the system degenerates into a trough over
southern Louisiana sooner than forecast.

Based on the latest forecast updates, Tropical Storm Watches and
Warnings have been extended westward along the coast of Louisiana.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along
portions of the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle
westward to southeastern Louisiana, including the Metro New Orleans
area, through Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible for portions of the southwestern coast of Louisiana
Wednesday night and Thursday.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.

3. Interests elsewhere in extreme western Louisiana and along the
Upper Texas Coast should monitor the progress of this system, as
additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of
that area.

4. Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through
Thursday along the Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle
into southern Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 29.4N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 29.5N 89.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 29.3N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 23/1800Z 29.4N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 24/0600Z 29.8N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/1800Z 30.3N 97.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 212053
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD ALONG COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE
LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 87.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to Morgan
City, Louisiana.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended westward to Cameron,
Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City, Louisiana, to Cameron, Louisiana
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 87.2 West. Bertha is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and west is expected tonight, with a continued
westward motion forecast Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast
track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during
the next couple of days or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected tonight, and gradual weakening
is forecast Wednesday through Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service station in Panama City
Beach, Florida, reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a
gust of 57 mph (92 km/h) during the past few hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the northern Gulf Coast within the warning area tonight
through Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area in Louisiana by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Cameron, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through
Thursday along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida into
southern Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 212052
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 87.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 87.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 86.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.5N 89.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.3N 91.4W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.4N 93.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.8N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.3N 97.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 87.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211745
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...BERTHA BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 86.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish
Line in Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish Line to the
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 86.8 West. Bertha is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and west is expected later today, with a continued
westward motion forecast Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast
track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, and gradual weakening
is forecast Wednesday through Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service station in Panama City
Beach, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68
km/h) and a gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across
portions of the warning area later today through Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Louisiana by
late Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River,
LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through
Thursday along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida into
southern Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 211457
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Bertha has become slightly better organized this morning. While the
low-level center was fully exposed overnight, new deep convection
has developed this morning and the center has become at least
partially tucked underneath the cold overcast. The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the storm, and they
reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 62 kt within the
convection to the southeast of the center, along with layer-averaged
dropsonde winds that support raising the initial intensity to 50 kt.
The central pressure has fallen slightly to 995 mb.

Bertha has deviated north of the forecast track during the past
several hours, and the initial motion is north-northwestward (345/3
kt). The near-term track forecast has been adjusted northward to
account for this development. While Bertha is currently in fairly
weak steering currents, a mid-level ridge centered near the Rockies
is expected to move southeastward during the next couple of days.
This should cause Bertha to turn more west-northwestward and then
westward while it moves near or along the northern Gulf Coast
through midweek. While the track models are overall in good
agreement on this scenario, there are differences in how much land
interaction with southeastern Louisiana will occur, and whether a
new center may redevelop off the coast. Little change was made to
the NHC track forecast beyond 24 h, and once again this forecast
assumes Bertha is able to maintain a cohesive circulation as it
passes near or over the northern Gulf Coast.

Bertha remains an asymmetric tropical storm, with most of the
rainfall and the strongest winds occurring to the south and east of
the center. Strong northeasterly vertical wind shear over Bertha is
forecast to persist today and tonight, which should make it
difficult for Bertha to strengthen much more. Convection is expected
to continue pulsing to the south of Bertha's center during this
time, and the NHC forecast overall shows gradual weakening over the
next few days. The extent of this weakening will depend on how much
land interaction occurs during the next couple of days, and it
remains possible that Bertha could degenerate into a trough even
sooner than forecast due to a disrupted structure within hostile
environmental conditions.

Some notable watch/warning changes were made with this advisory
package. The Tropical Storm Warning was extended eastward across
the Florida Panhandle and westward to the Terrebonne/Lafourche
Parish Line in Louisiana. In addition, the Storm Surge Watch has
been replaced with a Coastal Flood Warning issued by the local
forecast office. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still
expected to occur between the Mississippi/Alabama Border and the
Mouth of the Mississippi River, with peak values up to 4 ft above
ground level.


Key Messages:

1. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to
southeastern Louisiana later today and Wednesday, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible
for Metro New Orleans and the southern Gulf Coast of Louisiana,
where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected.

3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be
required for portions of that area.

4. Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday
along the Gulf Coast from western Florida into southern Louisiana
and the Upper Texas coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 29.3N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 29.5N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 29.4N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 23/1200Z 29.3N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
60H 24/0000Z 29.4N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1200Z 29.9N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/1200Z 31.0N 97.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211454
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BERTHA HAS STRENGTHENED...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 86.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from the Florida/Alabama border eastward to the Bay/Gulf
County Line.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward to the
Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish Line.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended westward from Morgan
City, Louisiana, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued along the northern Gulf
Coast. A Coastal Flood Warning has been issued by the National
Weather Service for portions of the southeastern Louisiana and
Mississippi coastline.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish
Line in Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish Line to the
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line
* Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including other
coastal and inland watches and warnings, please monitor products
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 86.3 West. Bertha is
moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) but is
expected to turn toward the west-northwest and west later today and
tonight. Then, a continued westward motion is forecast through the
middle of the week. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next several days.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by
gradual weakening through the middle of this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42039 south-southeast of Pensacola
recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust of
54 mph (86 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northern Gulf coast by late today into Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Louisiana by Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River,
LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through
Thursday along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida into
southern Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of Florida
and will spread westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the
week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 211454
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 86.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 86.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 86.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 90SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.5N 88.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 90SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.4N 89.5W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.3N 91.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 93.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.9N 94.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N 97.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 86.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 211141
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING BERTHA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 86.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border
in Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County line in Florida westward to the Florida/Alabama
border
* West of the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border to Morgan City,
Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 86.2 West. Bertha is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected today
followed by a turn toward the west by the middle part of this week.
On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern
Gulf Coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible later today, followed by
gradual weakening through the middle of this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northern Gulf coast by late today into Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
Florida Panhandle later today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area in Louisiana by late tonight into
Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through Thursday
along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western
Florida into southern Louisiana, including southern portions of
Alabama and Mississippi. This rainfall may produce areas of flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of Florida
and will spread westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the
week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210841
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Before the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft departed
Bertha, its final fix indicated the storm was continuing to deepen
with a 998 mb pressure, with peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 46
kt. In addition, an earlier scatterometer pass at 0322 UTC showed a
peak surface wind retrieval of 43 kt on the southern side of the
storm that was not fully sampled by the aircraft. These data
provided the basis to increase Bertha's intensity to 45 kt on the
intermediate advisory. Despite this increase in intensity, TDR data
from the earlier NOAA-P3 mission indicated that Bertha's circulation
remains tilted south with height, and satellite imagery shows the
low-level center now mostly exposed north of the deepest convection
due to increasing vertical wind shear. The initial intensity will
thus remain 45 kt for this advisory.

Tracking the low-level swirl on satellite this morning indicates
that Bertha has resumed a slow northwestward motion at 315/4 kt. The
large-scale steering pattern is slowly evolving as a mid-level ridge
currently over the Rockies slides southeastward while a longwave
trough remains over the northeastern United States. This evolution
should result in Bertha moving slowly northwestward or
west-northwestward, turning more westward by the middle of the week.
Complicating this track forecast, however, is the expectation that
Bertha will become highly sheared in 24-48 h, and bursts of deep
convection on its southwestern side may try to tug the storm's
center left of the steering motion. The latest NHC track forecast is
slightly north of the previous one for the first 24-36 h, but then
falls back to near the prior forecast track after that time, close
to a blend of the most recent Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI)
and TVCN solutions. It is worth noting that the track forecast
beyond 48 h assumes Bertha is able to maintain its status as a
tropical cyclone, with several models suggesting Bertha could
degenerate into a trough beyond this time period.

Northeasterly vertical wind shear over Bertha is already diagnosed
near 25 kt from UW-CIMSS, and it is forecast to increase further
over the next 24 h. While sea-surface temperatures are plenty warm,
nearby dry air could be imported by this shear into Bertha's center,
disrupting its structure. While periodic bursts of deep convection
will likely continue to occur over the next 24-48 h, the latest NHC
intensity forecast only shows a slight additional intensification
today before the shear becomes prohibitively strong. In fact, most
of the guidance suggests Bertha will begin to slowly weaken after 12
h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now reflects this
reasoning. Once Bertha moves near or over the Gulf coast of
Louisiana, some guidance shows Bertha's circulation becoming
elongated due to the combination of land interaction and high shear
affecting the tropical storm. While the latest NHC forecast still
shows Bertha remaining a tropical cyclone along the Gulf coast
through 72 h, another possibility is that the system degenerates
into a trough as it succumbs to the negative environmental
conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is roughly in the middle of
the guidance envelope.

As mentioned previously, the current shear affecting Bertha is
likely to give the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the
bulk of the rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur on the
southern side of the storm center.


Key Messages:

1. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the Gulf Coast from Alabama westward to southeastern Louisiana
tonight and Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the Florida
Panhandle, Metro New Orleans, and the southern Gulf Coast of
Louisiana, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

2. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Alabama, Mississippi,
and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm
surge is possible.

3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be
required for portions of that area later today.

4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along
the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from the Florida Big
Bend region to southern Louisiana, with isolated instances of flash
flooding possible westward into portions of the Texas coast later in
the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 28.7N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 29.0N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 29.4N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 29.5N 88.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 29.3N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1800Z 29.3N 92.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/0600Z 29.6N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...ON THE COAST
96H 25/0600Z 30.4N 96.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210837
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...BERTHA RESUMES A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 86.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border
in Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County line in Florida westward to the Florida/Alabama
border
* West of the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border to Morgan City,
Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 86.4 West. Bertha is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected today
followed by a turn westward by the middle part of this week. On the
forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf
coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible later today, followed
by gradual weakening through the middle of this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northern Gulf coast by late today into Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
Florida Panhandle later today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area in Louisiana by late tonight into
Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through Thursday
along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western
Florida into southern Louisiana, including southern portions of
Alabama and Mississippi. This rainfall may produce areas of flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210834
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 86.4W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 86.4W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.0N 86.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 90SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.4N 87.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 90SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.5N 88.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 80SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.3N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.3N 92.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 94.2W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 30.4N 96.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 86.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210534
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS
STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 86.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border
in Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County line in Florida westward to the Florida/Alabama
border
* West of the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border to Morgan City,
Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 28.4
North, longitude 86.1 West. Bertha is moving toward the northwest
near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northwestward to west-northwestward
motion is expected today followed by a turn westward by the
middle part of this week. On the forecast track, Bertha will move
near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Aircraft and satellite-wind data indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional intensification is possible over the next day or
so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northern Gulf coast by late today into Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
Florida Panhandle later today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area in Louisiana by late tonight into
Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches through Thursday
along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western
Florida into southern Louisiana, including southern portions of
Alabama and Mississippi. This rainfall may produce areas of flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 210252
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The system has become a little better organized with an area of deep
convection over the southern semicircle showing slight curvature and
limited curved convective bands over the northwestern quadrant.
Flight-level winds from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft within the convection to the southwest and southeast of the
center indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, so the system has
been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bertha. The aircraft also reported
that the central pressure has dropped about 6 mb since this
afternoon. The storm has well-defined upper-level outflow to the
south and southwest, but outflow is limited over the northern
semicircle.

There have been several center fixes from the aircraft which
indicate very slow, erratic motion. Since the storm has moved
very little overall this evening, the best estimate for the initial
motion is nearly stationary. Bertha remains sandwiched between two
mid-level subtropical high cells, in a region of weak steering
currents. The high to the northwest of the storm is forecast to
become the dominant steering influence which should induce a
west-northwestward or westward motion over the next few days. The
official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction,
on the southern side of the guidance suite and close to the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean.

Bertha is being affected by significant north-northeasterly vertical
wind shear. Dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will
increase during the next couple of days. This should limit
intensification of the storm before the center reaches the coast.
Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows the deep
convection near or offshore of the coastline, likely due to the
shear. Unfavorable atmospheric conditions along with the
interaction of land should prevent strengthening late in the
forecast period. The official intensity forecast is on the high
side of the model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the Gulf Coast from Alabama westward to southeastern Louisiana
Tuesday night and Wednesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
Florida Panhandle, Metro New Orleans, and the southern Gulf Coast of
Louisiana, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

2. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Alabama, Mississippi,
and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm
surge is possible.

3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be
required for portions of that area on Tuesday.

4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along
the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida
north of Fort Myers to southern Louisiana with isolated instances of
flash flooding possible westward into portions of Texas coast later
in the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 28.2N 85.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 210251
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Alabama/Florida
border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border in Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for west of the
Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for Metropolitan New
Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.

The Tropical Storm Watch east of the Bay/Gulf County Florida line
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border
in Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County line in Florida westward to the Florida/Alabama
border
* West of the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish border to Morgan City,
Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required on Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 85.9 West. Bertha has
been meandering and is nearly stationary. A slow west-northwestward
or westward motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf
coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northern Gulf coast by late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the
Florida Panhandle late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area in Louisiana by
late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches through Thursday
along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western
Florida into southern Louisiana, including southern portions of
Alabama and Mississippi. This rainfall may produce areas of flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 210250
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 85.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 85.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.3N 89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.3N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.3N 92.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.3N 94.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.3N 97.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 85.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202351
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines
Parish border in Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 86.0 West. Bertha has
been drifting erratically near 3 mph (6 km/h), but a northwestward
motion is expected tonight and Tuesday morning, followed by a
west-northwestward or westward motion. On the forecast track,
Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the
next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Florida Panhandle by late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the remainder of the watch
area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches through Friday
along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western
Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of
Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas
of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible over the Florida
Big Bend region this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT TO INVESTIGATE IT THIS
EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 85.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines
Parish border in Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 85.8 West. The
depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 3 mph
(6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected through tonight
and Tuesday morning, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
or west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or
along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or two, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later this
afternoon or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Florida Panhandle by late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the remainder of the watch
area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible over the Florida
Big Bend region this afternoon and evening.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 202048
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The earlier aircraft mission into the depression found a minimum
central pressure of 1005 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 34
kt. ASCAT data from the western part of the circulation showed
winds below 35 kt, and the latest satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB was 30 kt. Based on these, the depression has not yet reached
tropical-storm strength and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The low-level center has been moving erratically most of the day,
but the overall motion seems to be 305/3 kt. There is again little
change in the track forecast reasoning. The depression is in light
steering currents between two mid-level ridges, one to its
northwest centered over the central U. S. and one to its southeast
centered near the Bahamas. The U. S. ridge is expected to become a
little more dominant of a steering feature as it builds eastward.
The guidance is in overall agreement that the cyclone should move
slowly northwestward to west-northwestward for 36 h or so, followed
by a turn toward the west. However, there is some spread in the
guidance in the first 36-48 h about how close the center comes to
the northern Gulf Coast and how sharp the westward turn would be.
The new forecast track lies between these two clusters of models and
is a little to the north of the previous track. It should be noted
that strong northeasterly shear is forecast over the cyclone, which
could keep the center south of the forecast track due to the
effects of convective bursts. However, there are models such as the
ECMWF and Canadian that bring the system inland on the northern
Gulf coast.

The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and
these conditions should continue for another 18-24 h. It is likely
that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center
during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a
tropical storm. After that, the northeasterly shear should
increase, and the global models suggest it will get strong enough to
destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone. This should halt
intensification and then cause weakening. The new intensity
forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 h, and this is at
the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The new forecast also
calls for the system to weaken to a remnant low by 120 h, and based
on the dynamical model guidance there is a possibility it
could dissipate between 72-120 h due to shear and land interaction.

It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give
the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the
rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the
center.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could
bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from
the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana Tuesday
and Wednesday.

2. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Alabama, Mississippi,
and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm
surge is possible.

3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for
portions of that area tonight or Tuesday.

4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the
Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida north
of Fort Myers to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions
of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 28.7N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 29.6N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 29.6N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1800Z 29.5N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 25/1800Z 29.4N 96.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 202047
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
2100 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.6N 88.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.6N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 93.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 29.4N 96.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 85.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201730
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines
Parish border in Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 85.6 West. The
depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 3 mph
(6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected through tonight,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the
forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern
Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or two,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today or tonight.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Florida Panhandle by late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the remainder of the watch
area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible over the Florida
Big Bend region today.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 201619

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 115.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.07.2026 0 13.4N 115.0W 1000 46
0000UTC 21.07.2026 12 15.2N 117.1W 996 46
1200UTC 21.07.2026 24 16.1N 118.7W 992 48
0000UTC 22.07.2026 36 16.9N 120.3W 989 48
1200UTC 22.07.2026 48 17.2N 121.4W 985 53
0000UTC 23.07.2026 60 17.9N 123.1W 981 56
1200UTC 23.07.2026 72 18.3N 125.6W 983 55
0000UTC 24.07.2026 84 18.6N 128.6W 982 58
1200UTC 24.07.2026 96 18.6N 131.4W 983 51
0000UTC 25.07.2026 108 18.9N 134.0W 987 47
1200UTC 25.07.2026 120 19.4N 136.6W 989 48
0000UTC 26.07.2026 132 19.9N 139.1W 994 47
1200UTC 26.07.2026 144 20.4N 141.8W 999 40
0000UTC 27.07.2026 156 21.0N 144.4W 1004 32
1200UTC 27.07.2026 168 21.7N 147.1W 1007 28

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.1N 127.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.07.2026 0 26.1N 127.4W 997 36
0000UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.5N 127.8W 1001 35
1200UTC 21.07.2026 24 31.2N 127.7W 1005 28
0000UTC 22.07.2026 36 34.1N 127.1W 1010 21
1200UTC 22.07.2026 48 35.8N 126.1W 1013 18
0000UTC 23.07.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.4N 85.5W 1008 23
0000UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.8N 85.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.7N 86.3W 1005 35
0000UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 86.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 22.07.2026 48 30.1N 87.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 23.07.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 8.6N 105.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.07.2026 120 8.4N 107.2W 1004 32
0000UTC 26.07.2026 132 9.5N 109.3W 1001 48
1200UTC 26.07.2026 144 10.7N 112.0W 997 51
0000UTC 27.07.2026 156 11.5N 114.5W 992 52
1200UTC 27.07.2026 168 12.5N 116.5W 978 62

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.2N 174.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.07.2026 132 14.2N 174.1W 1003 30
1200UTC 26.07.2026 144 14.1N 176.6W 1003 33
0000UTC 27.07.2026 156 15.0N 178.3W 1002 34
1200UTC 27.07.2026 168 15.8N 179.9W 1002 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 32.5N 75.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2026 168 32.5N 75.1W 1009 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201619


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 201609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.07.2026 13.4N 115.1W MODERATE
00UTC 21.07.2026 15.2N 117.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 16.2N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 16.9N 120.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 17.2N 121.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.07.2026 18.0N 123.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 18.3N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 18.6N 128.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 18.6N 131.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 18.9N 134.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2026 19.4N 136.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 19.8N 139.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2026 20.3N 141.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2026 21.0N 144.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.07.2026 21.7N 147.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.1N 127.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.07.2026 26.1N 127.4W MODERATE
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.5N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 31.2N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 34.0N 127.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.07.2026 35.7N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.07.2026 28.4N 85.5W WEAK
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.8N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 28.7N 86.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 29.4N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 30.1N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 8.6N 105.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.07.2026 8.5N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 9.5N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2026 10.6N 112.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2026 11.5N 114.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.07.2026 12.5N 116.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.2N 174.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.07.2026 14.2N 174.1W WEAK
12UTC 26.07.2026 14.1N 176.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.07.2026 15.0N 178.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.07.2026 15.8N 179.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 32.6N 75.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.07.2026 32.6N 75.0W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201609


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 201448
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
depression is becoming better organized, with the low-level
circulation getting better defined and increased convective banding
near the center. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations show that this
has not yet resulted in strengthening. The maximum 925-mb
flight-level winds reported by the aircraft so far is 34 kt, and
the central pressure is near 1007 mb. Based on these data, the
initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The center of the depression seems to have reformed a little to the
south during the past several hours. However, the overall motion is
310/3 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning
from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched
between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over
the Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas.
Over time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the
dominant steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the
northeastern United States. This should result in the depression
turning to the west-northwest and eventually west at a continued
slow forward speed. The new forecast track brings the center near
southeastern Louisiana in about 60 h and then reaches southeastern
Texas by 120 h. The new forecast track is a little south of the
previous track based partly on the current position and the
possibility that the forecast northeasterly shear may help steer the
center a little more southward.

The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and
these conditions should continue for another 24-30 h. It is likely
that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center
during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a
tropical storm. After about 30 h, the northeasterly shear is
forecast to increase, and the global models suggest it will get
strong enough to destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone.
This should halt intensification and then cause some weakening. The
new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 to
48 h, and this is in the upper portion of the intensity guidance
envelope. The forecast also calls for the system to survive
through 120 h. However, it could dissipate between 72-120 h,
especially if it tracks north of the current forecast and has more
land interaction.

It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give
the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the
rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the
center.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could
bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from
the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana beginning
late tonight into Tuesday.

2. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Alabama, Mississippi,
and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm
surge is possible.

3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for
portions of that area later today or Tuesday.

4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along
the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to
the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama,
Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 28.5N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 28.6N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 29.2N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 29.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 29.5N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 29.4N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 25/1200Z 29.3N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 85.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. Gulf Coast from
the Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River,
Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coasts of
Mississippi and Louisiana from the Mississippi/Alabama border to
the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines
Parish border in Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 85.6 West. The
depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 3 mph (6
km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected through tonight,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the
forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern
Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite imagery and coastal Doppler radar data indicate that the
depression is getting better organized, and it is expected to
become a tropical storm later today. After that, additional
gradual strengthening is expected through Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from a combination of Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Florida Panhandle by late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the remainder of the watch
area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible over the Florida
Big Bend region today.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 201447
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
1500 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.6N 86.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.2N 87.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.4N 93.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 29.3N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 85.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201146
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
THE SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the MS/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 85.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the
forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern
Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by tonight into Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1 to 3 ft
Mobile Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 6 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200850
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The tropical depression continues to have a fairly unimpressive
appearance on satellite imagery, with just a few fragments of deep
convection around the circulation center. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft has been sampling the system this morning,
finding that the pressure continues to gradually decrease with a
peak 925 mb flight level wind of 38 kt. This data is the primary
justification for increasing the winds slightly to 30 kt for this
advisory.

Recon fixes indicate that the depression is now moving slowly
northwestward at 320/3 kt. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched
between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over the
Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. Over
time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the dominant
steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the northeastern
United States. The byproduct of this change is that the system
should begin to gradually turn more west-northwestward and westward
by the middle of this week. This track should bring the cyclone near
or along the Gulf coast, approaching the mouth of the Mississippi
River by 72 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a
little northward over these first few days, and the NHC track
forecast was also shifted in that direction, blending the simple
consensus aid TVCN with the Google DeepMind (GDMI) track guidance.

As mentioned previously, the depression's broad structure and
mid-level dry air are keeping the convection limited. Thus, its
intensification continues to be gradual. The depression is forecast
to become a tropical storm later today and continue to slowly
intensify while the shear remains low to moderate. After 36 h,
northeasterly shear is expected to increase markedly, and the
guidance is coming into better agreement that this should halt
additional intensification after that time. With the northward shift
in the track, the tropical cyclone is more likely to be disrupted by
land interaction beyond 60 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
now shows gradual weakening afterwards. This intensity forecast
still remains sensitive to the ultimate track, though it is notable
that the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean only tracks the
cyclone out to 72 h, suggesting the majority of its members
dissipate the system beyond that period. The NHC intensity forecast
is a little lower than the previous cycle after 72 h, but it
wouldn't be surprising if future adjustments are needed if more
guidance trends towards a further inland solution.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could
bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle
and Alabama coast beginning tonight into Tuesday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.

2. Interests in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for
portions of that area over the next day or two.

3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the
Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the
Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama,
Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 28.5N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 28.7N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 29.8N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 29.7N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/0600Z 29.6N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/0600Z 29.5N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200846
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED TO MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 85.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Alabama Gulf coast
from the Florida border to the Mississippi border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the MS/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located by aircraft reconnaissance near latitude 28.5 North,
longitude 85.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest
near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected during
the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or
west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along
the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Aircraft data indicates that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1006 mb (29.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by tonight into Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1 to 3 ft
Mobile Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 6 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200845
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.4W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.4W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.7N 85.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.8N 89.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.7N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 93.0W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 85.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200556
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 85.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located by aircraft reconnaissance near latitude 28.4 North,
longitude 85.3 West. The depression is moving toward the
north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northwestward or
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the
forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern
Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today.

The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 200431

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 113.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 12.6N 113.7W 1004 28
1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 13.7N 115.7W 1003 35
0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 15.5N 117.7W 1001 41
1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 16.4N 119.1W 1000 40
0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 17.1N 120.5W 998 42
1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 17.5N 121.6W 996 43
0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 18.4N 123.3W 994 46
1200UTC 23.07.2026 84 19.0N 125.8W 994 46
0000UTC 24.07.2026 96 19.2N 128.7W 992 45
1200UTC 24.07.2026 108 18.7N 131.3W 995 39
0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 18.8N 134.0W 998 37
1200UTC 25.07.2026 132 19.2N 136.7W 1002 35
0000UTC 26.07.2026 144 20.3N 139.6W 1006 29
1200UTC 26.07.2026 156 21.0N 142.3W 1009 26
0000UTC 27.07.2026 168 21.7N 144.7W 1011 24

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 126.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 23.3N 126.7W 994 39
1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 26.0N 127.4W 997 38
0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.1N 127.7W 1000 38
1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 30.7N 127.5W 1004 29
0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 33.0N 126.9W 1009 23
1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 34.5N 125.6W 1013 17
0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 84.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.0N 84.9W 1009 23
1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 28.5N 85.5W 1008 22
0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.3N 85.7W 1006 27
1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.9N 85.6W 1005 32
0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 29.7N 86.1W 1005 31
1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 30.3N 86.8W 1008 28
0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N 90.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.07.2026 84 28.5N 90.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 24.07.2026 96 28.7N 91.7W 1010 24
1200UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.8N 93.4W 1012 28
0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.2N 105.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 10.2N 105.3W 1004 30
1200UTC 25.07.2026 132 10.5N 108.1W 1003 34
0000UTC 26.07.2026 144 11.1N 111.4W 999 40
1200UTC 26.07.2026 156 11.3N 114.2W 993 54
0000UTC 27.07.2026 168 12.0N 116.2W 985 58

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 38.0N 70.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.07.2026 156 38.7N 66.7W 1006 31
0000UTC 27.07.2026 168 42.6N 60.4W 1006 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 7.1N 133.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.07.2026 168 7.1N 133.9W 1007 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200431


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 200420

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 113.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.07.2026 12.7N 113.7W WEAK
12UTC 20.07.2026 13.6N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 15.5N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 16.4N 119.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 17.1N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 17.5N 121.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 18.4N 123.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 19.0N 125.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 19.2N 128.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 18.7N 131.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 18.8N 134.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2026 19.2N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 20.3N 139.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2026 21.1N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.07.2026 21.7N 144.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 126.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.07.2026 23.3N 126.8W MODERATE
12UTC 20.07.2026 26.0N 127.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.1N 127.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 30.7N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2026 32.9N 126.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.07.2026 34.5N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 84.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.07.2026 28.0N 84.9W WEAK
12UTC 20.07.2026 28.5N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.3N 85.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 28.9N 85.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 29.7N 86.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 30.3N 86.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.4N 90.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.07.2026 28.4N 90.9W WEAK
00UTC 24.07.2026 28.6N 91.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 28.8N 93.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.2N 105.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.07.2026 10.2N 105.3W WEAK
12UTC 25.07.2026 10.5N 108.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 11.1N 111.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2026 11.3N 114.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2026 11.9N 116.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 7.2N 133.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.07.2026 7.2N 133.9W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200420


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200245
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The depression is producing a small area of deep convection near
and north of the apparent center, with other modest bands mostly in
the eastern semicircle. Since the various satellite intensity
estimates are unchanged and the nearby surface observations haven't
reported much more than 20 kt, the initial intensity will remain
25 kt for this advisory. This is also consistent with a
just-received partial scatterometer pass.

The system is drifting to the north-northwest, caught in light
steering between a ridge over the western Atlantic and one over the
south-central United States. Most of the guidance suggests that
this slow motion, with some turn to the west-northwest, will
continue early this week, and the cyclone's outer bands could bring
tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle
beginning late Monday. A turn to the west and an increase in
forward speed are forecast late on Tuesday as the ridge over the
U.S. builds eastward, causing the system to move along or just
offshore of the northwestern Gulf coast during the middle and latter
portions of the week. The track has been shifted a bit to the north
in the short-term, blending back with the previous forecast on day
2, then a bit to the south at long-term. This is consistent with
the latest model consensus and Google DeepMind solutions.

Only slow strengthening of the system is expected due to its broad
structure, pockets of mid-level dry air, and northeasterly vertical
wind shear, despite very warm waters. The cyclone is still
forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of
the Florida Panhandle. An increase in shear is expected by
Tuesday, which could cause the intensity to flat line, along with
some land interaction. This is a challenging forecast because of
the expected moderate shear conditions, which are known to result
in less predictable outcomes. For instance, reliable models are
spread from near dissipation by the ECMWF/HAFS guidance but near
hurricane-strength in the latest HWRF/HMON runs. The NHC forecast
continues to lie between those solutions, but it should be mentioned
that I don't have much confidence in this prediction given the above
factors.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida
Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.

2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should
monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required
for portions of that area over the next day or two.

3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along
the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 28.0N 85.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 28.3N 85.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 28.6N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 29.2N 89.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 28.8N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
LATE MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 85.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).
A slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected
during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest or west. On the forecast track, the depression will
move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several
days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA buoy 42036 is
1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200244
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0300 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 85.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.6N 85.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.2N 89.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.8N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 85.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192344
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
LATE MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 85.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 85.0 West. The
depression is nearly stationary. A very slow northwestward or
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two,
followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the
depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA buoy 42036 is
1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192044
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BY LATE MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 85.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 85.0 West. The
depression is stationary. A very slow northwestward or
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two,
followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the
depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 192044
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The depression has generally changed little over the past several
hours. The circulation remains well organized, and deep convection
is gradually increasing near the center and in bands. An ASCAT pass
from around 15Z showed peak winds of around 25 kt, and data from the
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show winds of about that
same value. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 25 kt for
this advisory. The depression remains rather large and somewhat
diffuse, with the associated shower activity covering much of the
eastern Gulf.

The system has barely moved today. In fact, it has drifted
southeastward over the past few hours. This slow motion is due to
very weak steering currents, with the depression currently caught
between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the
south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the
northeast U.S. Most of the models show the cyclone drifting
northwestward over the next couple of days, and its outer bands
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida
Panhandle beginning late Monday. A turn to the west or
west-northwest is likely on Tuesday as the ridge over the U.S.
builds eastward and becomes the primary steering feature. That
motion should take the system along or just offshore of the
northern Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the
week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit to the south,
in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN,
and GDMI.

The depression is expected to only slowly strengthen, especially in
the short term, due to its sprawling structure, nearby dry air, and
northeasterly vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, the system is
expected to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of
the Florida Panhandle. The shear could briefly let up during the
middle of the week, and if the system is still over water at that
time, it could strengthen some more. There remains a large spread
in the model solutions that range from the system remaining a
tropical depression to even becoming a hurricane. Given the mixed
environmental conditions and some expected land interaction, the NHC
intensity forecast lies between those solutions, but leans closer to
the upper end of the guidance. However, it is worth emphasizing
that the intensity forecast is of low confidence given the
uncertainty of how much land the system will interact with.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida
Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect,

2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should
monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required
for portions of that area over the next day or two.

3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along
the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 27.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 192043
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
2100 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 85.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 85.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 85.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191732
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 85.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 85.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h)
and a continued slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is
expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the
west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along
the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011
mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from
western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and
Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 191619

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 125.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 21.5N 125.7W 994 39
0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 23.4N 126.7W 995 40
1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 26.0N 127.5W 997 39
0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.5N 127.8W 1000 38
1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 30.9N 127.6W 1004 30
0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 33.4N 126.8W 1009 22
1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 111.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 12.5N 111.5W 1006 24
0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 12.8N 113.7W 1003 29
1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 14.0N 116.1W 1002 34
0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 15.5N 118.0W 1001 39
1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 16.3N 120.2W 1000 39
0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 17.1N 121.5W 998 42
1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 17.9N 122.5W 996 44
0000UTC 23.07.2026 84 18.3N 123.9W 995 49
1200UTC 23.07.2026 96 18.5N 126.8W 994 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 18.5N 129.8W 994 47
1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 18.0N 132.8W 994 42
0000UTC 25.07.2026 132 17.6N 135.8W 994 46
1200UTC 25.07.2026 144 17.5N 138.5W 995 46
0000UTC 26.07.2026 156 18.1N 141.1W 1000 38
1200UTC 26.07.2026 168 18.6N 143.4W 1003 33

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 85.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 27.1N 85.2W 1012 22
0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 27.9N 84.9W 1009 22
1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 27.6N 85.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.2N 85.5W 1005 30
1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.8N 85.7W 1004 35
0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 29.3N 86.0W 1003 35
1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 29.4N 87.1W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 84 29.2N 88.2W 1004 40
1200UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.0N 90.7W 1002 48
0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.1N 93.9W 1005 33
1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 9.6N 97.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 9.5N 99.1W 1004 31
1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 9.8N 101.4W 1003 33
0000UTC 25.07.2026 132 11.1N 103.9W 1000 39
1200UTC 25.07.2026 144 11.5N 106.7W 998 44
0000UTC 26.07.2026 156 12.8N 109.3W 994 56
1200UTC 26.07.2026 168 13.3N 111.5W 983 70

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 15.0N 177.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.07.2026 168 14.7N 178.9W 1005 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191619


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 191452
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the
northeastern Gulf of America during the past few days has now
developed a well-defined low-level circulation. The convective
activity remains patchy, likely due to intrusions of dry air from
its northeast, but there is enough persistent convection near the
center and in bands on its northeast and southwest sides to justify
this system as a tropical depression. The circulation is sprawling
and still weak, however. Based on surface observations and earlier
ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 25 kt and the minimum
pressure is 1011 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled
to investigate this system later today, and their data will be
helpful to better assess the system’s initial structure.

The initial motion of the system is difficult to know since it has
only recently become well defined, but our best guess is
north-northwestward at 3 kt. The system is currently caught in weak
steering currents between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another
ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough
over the northeast U.S. This pattern should take the cyclone slowly
northwestward through Monday night, and the system will likely be
close enough to the Florida Panhandle to bring the potential for
tropical storm conditions there. After that time, a turn to the
west or west-northwest seems to be the most likely scenario as the
ridge over the southern U.S. builds eastward, taking the system near
or across the Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of
the week. The NHC track forecast lies a touch to the south of
middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the usually
best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI.

The sprawling nature of the system, nearby dry air, and some
northeasterly vertical wind shear suggest that any strengthening
should be slow to occur, especially in the short term.
Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm as it
approaches the Florida Panhandle during the next day or two. There
seems to be a better opportunity for the system to strengthen once
it turns westward, however, the amount of strengthening will be
dependent on how far offshore the circulation is. The NHC track
forecast lies toward the upper end of the model guidance, however,
there is a low amount of confidence given the uncertainty of how
much land interaction will take place.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida
Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.

2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and
Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could
be required for portions of that area over the next day or two.

3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along
the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 28.0N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 191450
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
1500 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 20SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 85.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 85.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Florida from
Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h)
and a slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected
during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On
the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the
northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011
mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from
western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and
Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi