Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for TWO-26
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202351
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines
Parish border in Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 86.0 West. Bertha has
been drifting erratically near 3 mph (6 km/h), but a northwestward
motion is expected tonight and Tuesday morning, followed by a
west-northwestward or westward motion. On the forecast track,
Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the
next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Florida Panhandle by late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the remainder of the watch
area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches through Friday
along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western
Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of
Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas
of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible over the Florida
Big Bend region this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 202048
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT TO INVESTIGATE IT THIS
EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 85.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines
Parish border in Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or on
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 85.8 West. The
depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 3 mph
(6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected through tonight
and Tuesday morning, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
or west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or
along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or two, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later this
afternoon or tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Florida Panhandle by late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the remainder of the watch
area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible over the Florida
Big Bend region this afternoon and evening.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 202048
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The earlier aircraft mission into the depression found a minimum
central pressure of 1005 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 34
kt. ASCAT data from the western part of the circulation showed
winds below 35 kt, and the latest satellite intensity estimate from
TAFB was 30 kt. Based on these, the depression has not yet reached
tropical-storm strength and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The low-level center has been moving erratically most of the day,
but the overall motion seems to be 305/3 kt. There is again little
change in the track forecast reasoning. The depression is in light
steering currents between two mid-level ridges, one to its
northwest centered over the central U. S. and one to its southeast
centered near the Bahamas. The U. S. ridge is expected to become a
little more dominant of a steering feature as it builds eastward.
The guidance is in overall agreement that the cyclone should move
slowly northwestward to west-northwestward for 36 h or so, followed
by a turn toward the west. However, there is some spread in the
guidance in the first 36-48 h about how close the center comes to
the northern Gulf Coast and how sharp the westward turn would be.
The new forecast track lies between these two clusters of models and
is a little to the north of the previous track. It should be noted
that strong northeasterly shear is forecast over the cyclone, which
could keep the center south of the forecast track due to the
effects of convective bursts. However, there are models such as the
ECMWF and Canadian that bring the system inland on the northern
Gulf coast.

The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and
these conditions should continue for another 18-24 h. It is likely
that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center
during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a
tropical storm. After that, the northeasterly shear should
increase, and the global models suggest it will get strong enough to
destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone. This should halt
intensification and then cause weakening. The new intensity
forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 h, and this is at
the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The new forecast also
calls for the system to weaken to a remnant low by 120 h, and based
on the dynamical model guidance there is a possibility it
could dissipate between 72-120 h due to shear and land interaction.

It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give
the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the
rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the
center.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could
bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from
the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana Tuesday
and Wednesday.

2. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the Alabama, Mississippi,
and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm
surge is possible.

3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for
portions of that area tonight or Tuesday.

4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the
Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida north
of Fort Myers to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions
of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 28.7N 85.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 29.6N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 29.6N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1800Z 29.5N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 25/1800Z 29.4N 96.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 202047
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
2100 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.6N 88.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.6N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.5N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 93.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 29.4N 96.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 85.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201730
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines
Parish border in Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 85.6 West. The
depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 3 mph
(6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected through tonight,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the
forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern
Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or two,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today or tonight.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Florida Panhandle by late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the remainder of the watch
area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible over the Florida
Big Bend region today.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 201619

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 115.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.07.2026 0 13.4N 115.0W 1000 46
0000UTC 21.07.2026 12 15.2N 117.1W 996 46
1200UTC 21.07.2026 24 16.1N 118.7W 992 48
0000UTC 22.07.2026 36 16.9N 120.3W 989 48
1200UTC 22.07.2026 48 17.2N 121.4W 985 53
0000UTC 23.07.2026 60 17.9N 123.1W 981 56
1200UTC 23.07.2026 72 18.3N 125.6W 983 55
0000UTC 24.07.2026 84 18.6N 128.6W 982 58
1200UTC 24.07.2026 96 18.6N 131.4W 983 51
0000UTC 25.07.2026 108 18.9N 134.0W 987 47
1200UTC 25.07.2026 120 19.4N 136.6W 989 48
0000UTC 26.07.2026 132 19.9N 139.1W 994 47
1200UTC 26.07.2026 144 20.4N 141.8W 999 40
0000UTC 27.07.2026 156 21.0N 144.4W 1004 32
1200UTC 27.07.2026 168 21.7N 147.1W 1007 28

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.1N 127.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.07.2026 0 26.1N 127.4W 997 36
0000UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.5N 127.8W 1001 35
1200UTC 21.07.2026 24 31.2N 127.7W 1005 28
0000UTC 22.07.2026 36 34.1N 127.1W 1010 21
1200UTC 22.07.2026 48 35.8N 126.1W 1013 18
0000UTC 23.07.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.4N 85.5W 1008 23
0000UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.8N 85.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.7N 86.3W 1005 35
0000UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 86.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 22.07.2026 48 30.1N 87.6W 1006 29
0000UTC 23.07.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 8.6N 105.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.07.2026 120 8.4N 107.2W 1004 32
0000UTC 26.07.2026 132 9.5N 109.3W 1001 48
1200UTC 26.07.2026 144 10.7N 112.0W 997 51
0000UTC 27.07.2026 156 11.5N 114.5W 992 52
1200UTC 27.07.2026 168 12.5N 116.5W 978 62

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.2N 174.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.07.2026 132 14.2N 174.1W 1003 30
1200UTC 26.07.2026 144 14.1N 176.6W 1003 33
0000UTC 27.07.2026 156 15.0N 178.3W 1002 34
1200UTC 27.07.2026 168 15.8N 179.9W 1002 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 32.5N 75.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2026 168 32.5N 75.1W 1009 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201619


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 201609

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.07.2026 13.4N 115.1W MODERATE
00UTC 21.07.2026 15.2N 117.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 16.2N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 16.9N 120.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 17.2N 121.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.07.2026 18.0N 123.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 18.3N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 18.6N 128.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 18.6N 131.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 18.9N 134.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2026 19.4N 136.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 19.8N 139.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2026 20.3N 141.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2026 21.0N 144.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.07.2026 21.7N 147.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 26.1N 127.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.07.2026 26.1N 127.4W MODERATE
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.5N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 31.2N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 34.0N 127.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.07.2026 35.7N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 85.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 20.07.2026 28.4N 85.5W WEAK
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.8N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 28.7N 86.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 29.4N 86.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 30.1N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 8.6N 105.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.07.2026 8.5N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 9.5N 109.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2026 10.6N 112.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2026 11.5N 114.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.07.2026 12.5N 116.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.2N 174.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.07.2026 14.2N 174.1W WEAK
12UTC 26.07.2026 14.1N 176.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.07.2026 15.0N 178.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.07.2026 15.8N 179.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 32.6N 75.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.07.2026 32.6N 75.0W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201609


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 201448
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
depression is becoming better organized, with the low-level
circulation getting better defined and increased convective banding
near the center. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations show that this
has not yet resulted in strengthening. The maximum 925-mb
flight-level winds reported by the aircraft so far is 34 kt, and
the central pressure is near 1007 mb. Based on these data, the
initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The center of the depression seems to have reformed a little to the
south during the past several hours. However, the overall motion is
310/3 kt. There is little change in the track forecast reasoning
from the previous advisory. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched
between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over
the Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas.
Over time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the
dominant steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the
northeastern United States. This should result in the depression
turning to the west-northwest and eventually west at a continued
slow forward speed. The new forecast track brings the center near
southeastern Louisiana in about 60 h and then reaches southeastern
Texas by 120 h. The new forecast track is a little south of the
previous track based partly on the current position and the
possibility that the forecast northeasterly shear may help steer the
center a little more southward.

The depression is experiencing moderate northeasterly shear, and
these conditions should continue for another 24-30 h. It is likely
that there will be convective bursts near and south of the center
during this time, and these should help intensify the cyclone to a
tropical storm. After about 30 h, the northeasterly shear is
forecast to increase, and the global models suggest it will get
strong enough to destroy the vertical integrity of the cyclone.
This should halt intensification and then cause some weakening. The
new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt in 36 to
48 h, and this is in the upper portion of the intensity guidance
envelope. The forecast also calls for the system to survive
through 120 h. However, it could dissipate between 72-120 h,
especially if it tracks north of the current forecast and has more
land interaction.

It should be noted that the aforementioned shear is likely to give
the cyclone a very asymmetric structure, with the bulk of the
rainfall and much of the wind expected to occur to the south of the
center.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could
bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Gulf Coast from
the Florida Panhandle westward to southeastern Louisiana beginning
late tonight into Tuesday.

2. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Alabama, Mississippi,
and southeastern Louisiana coasts, where a life-threatening storm
surge is possible.

3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for
portions of that area later today or Tuesday.

4. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along
the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to
the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama,
Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 28.5N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 28.6N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 29.2N 87.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 29.5N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 29.5N 90.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1200Z 29.4N 93.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 25/1200Z 29.3N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...NEW WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 85.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. Gulf Coast from
the Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River,
Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coasts of
Mississippi and Louisiana from the Mississippi/Alabama border to
the Jefferson/Plaquemines parish border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River Florida westward to the Jefferson/Plaquemines
Parish border in Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or
Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 85.6 West. The
depression is moving erratically toward the northwest near 3 mph (6
km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected through tonight,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the
forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern
Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite imagery and coastal Doppler radar data indicate that the
depression is getting better organized, and it is expected to
become a tropical storm later today. After that, additional
gradual strengthening is expected through Tuesday.

The minimum central pressure estimated from a combination of Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in the Florida Panhandle by late tonight into Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the remainder of the watch
area by late Tuesday night into Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to AL/FL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...1-3 ft
Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two are possible over the Florida
Big Bend region today.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 201447
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
1500 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.6W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.6W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.6N 86.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.9N 86.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.2N 87.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.4N 88.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 90.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.4N 93.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 29.3N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 85.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 201146
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
THE SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 85.6W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the MS/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 85.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the
forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern
Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by tonight into Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1 to 3 ft
Mobile Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 6 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200850
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The tropical depression continues to have a fairly unimpressive
appearance on satellite imagery, with just a few fragments of deep
convection around the circulation center. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft has been sampling the system this morning,
finding that the pressure continues to gradually decrease with a
peak 925 mb flight level wind of 38 kt. This data is the primary
justification for increasing the winds slightly to 30 kt for this
advisory.

Recon fixes indicate that the depression is now moving slowly
northwestward at 320/3 kt. The tropical cyclone remains sandwiched
between two mid-level ridges, one to its northwest centered over the
Rockies and one to its southeast centered near the Bahamas. Over
time, the ridge over the Rockies is expected to become the dominant
steering feature as a longwave trough moves into the northeastern
United States. The byproduct of this change is that the system
should begin to gradually turn more west-northwestward and westward
by the middle of this week. This track should bring the cyclone near
or along the Gulf coast, approaching the mouth of the Mississippi
River by 72 h. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a
little northward over these first few days, and the NHC track
forecast was also shifted in that direction, blending the simple
consensus aid TVCN with the Google DeepMind (GDMI) track guidance.

As mentioned previously, the depression's broad structure and
mid-level dry air are keeping the convection limited. Thus, its
intensification continues to be gradual. The depression is forecast
to become a tropical storm later today and continue to slowly
intensify while the shear remains low to moderate. After 36 h,
northeasterly shear is expected to increase markedly, and the
guidance is coming into better agreement that this should halt
additional intensification after that time. With the northward shift
in the track, the tropical cyclone is more likely to be disrupted by
land interaction beyond 60 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
now shows gradual weakening afterwards. This intensity forecast
still remains sensitive to the ultimate track, though it is notable
that the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean only tracks the
cyclone out to 72 h, suggesting the majority of its members
dissipate the system beyond that period. The NHC intensity forecast
is a little lower than the previous cycle after 72 h, but it
wouldn't be surprising if future adjustments are needed if more
guidance trends towards a further inland solution.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could
bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle
and Alabama coast beginning tonight into Tuesday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.

2. Interests in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the
progress of this system, as additional watches could be required for
portions of that area over the next day or two.

3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday along the
Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the
Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama,
Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 28.5N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 28.7N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 29.8N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0600Z 29.7N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/0600Z 29.6N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/0600Z 29.5N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200846
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED TO MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 85.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Alabama Gulf coast
from the Florida border to the Mississippi border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the MS/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located by aircraft reconnaissance near latitude 28.5 North,
longitude 85.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest
near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northwestward motion is expected during
the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or
west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along
the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Aircraft data indicates that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become
a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1006 mb (29.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by tonight into Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1 to 3 ft
Mobile Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 6 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200845
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0900 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.4W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 85.4W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.7N 85.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 29.0N 86.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.3N 86.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.6N 87.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.8N 89.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.7N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 93.0W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 85.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200556
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 85.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located by aircraft reconnaissance near latitude 28.4 North,
longitude 85.3 West. The depression is moving toward the
north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northwestward or
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest or west. On the
forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern
Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to
become a tropical storm later today.

The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late today.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 200431

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 20.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 113.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 12.6N 113.7W 1004 28
1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 13.7N 115.7W 1003 35
0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 15.5N 117.7W 1001 41
1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 16.4N 119.1W 1000 40
0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 17.1N 120.5W 998 42
1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 17.5N 121.6W 996 43
0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 18.4N 123.3W 994 46
1200UTC 23.07.2026 84 19.0N 125.8W 994 46
0000UTC 24.07.2026 96 19.2N 128.7W 992 45
1200UTC 24.07.2026 108 18.7N 131.3W 995 39
0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 18.8N 134.0W 998 37
1200UTC 25.07.2026 132 19.2N 136.7W 1002 35
0000UTC 26.07.2026 144 20.3N 139.6W 1006 29
1200UTC 26.07.2026 156 21.0N 142.3W 1009 26
0000UTC 27.07.2026 168 21.7N 144.7W 1011 24

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 126.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 23.3N 126.7W 994 39
1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 26.0N 127.4W 997 38
0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.1N 127.7W 1000 38
1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 30.7N 127.5W 1004 29
0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 33.0N 126.9W 1009 23
1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 34.5N 125.6W 1013 17
0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 84.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.07.2026 0 28.0N 84.9W 1009 23
1200UTC 20.07.2026 12 28.5N 85.5W 1008 22
0000UTC 21.07.2026 24 28.3N 85.7W 1006 27
1200UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.9N 85.6W 1005 32
0000UTC 22.07.2026 48 29.7N 86.1W 1005 31
1200UTC 22.07.2026 60 30.3N 86.8W 1008 28
0000UTC 23.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.5N 90.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.07.2026 84 28.5N 90.9W 1009 25
0000UTC 24.07.2026 96 28.7N 91.7W 1010 24
1200UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.8N 93.4W 1012 28
0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.2N 105.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.07.2026 120 10.2N 105.3W 1004 30
1200UTC 25.07.2026 132 10.5N 108.1W 1003 34
0000UTC 26.07.2026 144 11.1N 111.4W 999 40
1200UTC 26.07.2026 156 11.3N 114.2W 993 54
0000UTC 27.07.2026 168 12.0N 116.2W 985 58

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 38.0N 70.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.07.2026 156 38.7N 66.7W 1006 31
0000UTC 27.07.2026 168 42.6N 60.4W 1006 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 7.1N 133.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.07.2026 168 7.1N 133.9W 1007 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200431


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 200420

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 113.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.07.2026 12.7N 113.7W WEAK
12UTC 20.07.2026 13.6N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 15.5N 117.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 16.4N 119.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 17.1N 120.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 17.5N 121.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 18.4N 123.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2026 19.0N 125.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2026 19.2N 128.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 18.7N 131.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 18.8N 134.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2026 19.2N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 20.3N 139.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2026 21.1N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.07.2026 21.7N 144.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 126.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.07.2026 23.3N 126.8W MODERATE
12UTC 20.07.2026 26.0N 127.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.1N 127.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 30.7N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.07.2026 32.9N 126.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.07.2026 34.5N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 84.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 20.07.2026 28.0N 84.9W WEAK
12UTC 20.07.2026 28.5N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 21.07.2026 28.3N 85.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 21.07.2026 28.9N 85.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.07.2026 29.7N 86.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.07.2026 30.3N 86.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 28.4N 90.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.07.2026 28.4N 90.9W WEAK
00UTC 24.07.2026 28.6N 91.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2026 28.8N 93.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2026 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.2N 105.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.07.2026 10.2N 105.3W WEAK
12UTC 25.07.2026 10.5N 108.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2026 11.1N 111.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2026 11.3N 114.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2026 11.9N 116.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 7.2N 133.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.07.2026 7.2N 133.9W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

THIS BULLETIN IS DUE TO BE DISCONTINUED SINCE BULLETINS ARE NOW
AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE
AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 200420


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 200245
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The depression is producing a small area of deep convection near
and north of the apparent center, with other modest bands mostly in
the eastern semicircle. Since the various satellite intensity
estimates are unchanged and the nearby surface observations haven't
reported much more than 20 kt, the initial intensity will remain
25 kt for this advisory. This is also consistent with a
just-received partial scatterometer pass.

The system is drifting to the north-northwest, caught in light
steering between a ridge over the western Atlantic and one over the
south-central United States. Most of the guidance suggests that
this slow motion, with some turn to the west-northwest, will
continue early this week, and the cyclone's outer bands could bring
tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle
beginning late Monday. A turn to the west and an increase in
forward speed are forecast late on Tuesday as the ridge over the
U.S. builds eastward, causing the system to move along or just
offshore of the northwestern Gulf coast during the middle and latter
portions of the week. The track has been shifted a bit to the north
in the short-term, blending back with the previous forecast on day
2, then a bit to the south at long-term. This is consistent with
the latest model consensus and Google DeepMind solutions.

Only slow strengthening of the system is expected due to its broad
structure, pockets of mid-level dry air, and northeasterly vertical
wind shear, despite very warm waters. The cyclone is still
forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of
the Florida Panhandle. An increase in shear is expected by
Tuesday, which could cause the intensity to flat line, along with
some land interaction. This is a challenging forecast because of
the expected moderate shear conditions, which are known to result
in less predictable outcomes. For instance, reliable models are
spread from near dissipation by the ECMWF/HAFS guidance but near
hurricane-strength in the latest HWRF/HMON runs. The NHC forecast
continues to lie between those solutions, but it should be mentioned
that I don't have much confidence in this prediction given the above
factors.


Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida
Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect.

2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should
monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required
for portions of that area over the next day or two.

3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along
the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 28.0N 85.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 28.3N 85.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 28.6N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 29.2N 89.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/0000Z 28.8N 97.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 200244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
LATE MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 85.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).
A slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected
during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest or west. On the forecast track, the depression will
move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several
days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA buoy 42036 is
1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 200244
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
0300 UTC MON JUL 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.1W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.1W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.3N 85.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.6N 85.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.8N 86.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.1N 87.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.3N 88.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.2N 89.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 93.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.8N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 85.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192344
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
700 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
LATE MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 85.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 85.0 West. The
depression is nearly stationary. A very slow northwestward or
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two,
followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the
depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA buoy 42036 is
1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 192044
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BY LATE MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 85.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be
required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 85.0 West. The
depression is stationary. A very slow northwestward or
north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two,
followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the
depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations
from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during
the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 192044
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The depression has generally changed little over the past several
hours. The circulation remains well organized, and deep convection
is gradually increasing near the center and in bands. An ASCAT pass
from around 15Z showed peak winds of around 25 kt, and data from the
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show winds of about that
same value. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 25 kt for
this advisory. The depression remains rather large and somewhat
diffuse, with the associated shower activity covering much of the
eastern Gulf.

The system has barely moved today. In fact, it has drifted
southeastward over the past few hours. This slow motion is due to
very weak steering currents, with the depression currently caught
between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the
south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the
northeast U.S. Most of the models show the cyclone drifting
northwestward over the next couple of days, and its outer bands
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida
Panhandle beginning late Monday. A turn to the west or
west-northwest is likely on Tuesday as the ridge over the U.S.
builds eastward and becomes the primary steering feature. That
motion should take the system along or just offshore of the
northern Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the
week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit to the south,
in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN,
and GDMI.

The depression is expected to only slowly strengthen, especially in
the short term, due to its sprawling structure, nearby dry air, and
northeasterly vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, the system is
expected to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of
the Florida Panhandle. The shear could briefly let up during the
middle of the week, and if the system is still over water at that
time, it could strengthen some more. There remains a large spread
in the model solutions that range from the system remaining a
tropical depression to even becoming a hurricane. Given the mixed
environmental conditions and some expected land interaction, the NHC
intensity forecast lies between those solutions, but leans closer to
the upper end of the guidance. However, it is worth emphasizing
that the intensity forecast is of low confidence given the
uncertainty of how much land the system will interact with.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida
Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect,

2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should
monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required
for portions of that area over the next day or two.

3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along
the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 27.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 192043
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
2100 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 85.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 85.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 85.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191732
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
100 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 85.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 85.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h)
and a continued slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is
expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the
west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along
the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011
mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from
western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and
Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 191619

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.07.2026

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.5N 125.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 21.5N 125.7W 994 39
0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 23.4N 126.7W 995 40
1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 26.0N 127.5W 997 39
0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.5N 127.8W 1000 38
1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 30.9N 127.6W 1004 30
0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 33.4N 126.8W 1009 22
1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 111.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 12.5N 111.5W 1006 24
0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 12.8N 113.7W 1003 29
1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 14.0N 116.1W 1002 34
0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 15.5N 118.0W 1001 39
1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 16.3N 120.2W 1000 39
0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 17.1N 121.5W 998 42
1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 17.9N 122.5W 996 44
0000UTC 23.07.2026 84 18.3N 123.9W 995 49
1200UTC 23.07.2026 96 18.5N 126.8W 994 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 18.5N 129.8W 994 47
1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 18.0N 132.8W 994 42
0000UTC 25.07.2026 132 17.6N 135.8W 994 46
1200UTC 25.07.2026 144 17.5N 138.5W 995 46
0000UTC 26.07.2026 156 18.1N 141.1W 1000 38
1200UTC 26.07.2026 168 18.6N 143.4W 1003 33

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.1N 85.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 0 27.1N 85.2W 1012 22
0000UTC 20.07.2026 12 27.9N 84.9W 1009 22
1200UTC 20.07.2026 24 27.6N 85.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 36 28.2N 85.5W 1005 30
1200UTC 21.07.2026 48 28.8N 85.7W 1004 35
0000UTC 22.07.2026 60 29.3N 86.0W 1003 35
1200UTC 22.07.2026 72 29.4N 87.1W 1004 46
0000UTC 23.07.2026 84 29.2N 88.2W 1004 40
1200UTC 23.07.2026 96 28.0N 90.7W 1002 48
0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 28.1N 93.9W 1005 33
1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 9.6N 97.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.07.2026 108 9.5N 99.1W 1004 31
1200UTC 24.07.2026 120 9.8N 101.4W 1003 33
0000UTC 25.07.2026 132 11.1N 103.9W 1000 39
1200UTC 25.07.2026 144 11.5N 106.7W 998 44
0000UTC 26.07.2026 156 12.8N 109.3W 994 56
1200UTC 26.07.2026 168 13.3N 111.5W 983 70

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 15.0N 177.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.07.2026 168 14.7N 178.9W 1005 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191619


Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 191452
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the
northeastern Gulf of America during the past few days has now
developed a well-defined low-level circulation. The convective
activity remains patchy, likely due to intrusions of dry air from
its northeast, but there is enough persistent convection near the
center and in bands on its northeast and southwest sides to justify
this system as a tropical depression. The circulation is sprawling
and still weak, however. Based on surface observations and earlier
ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 25 kt and the minimum
pressure is 1011 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled
to investigate this system later today, and their data will be
helpful to better assess the system’s initial structure.

The initial motion of the system is difficult to know since it has
only recently become well defined, but our best guess is
north-northwestward at 3 kt. The system is currently caught in weak
steering currents between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another
ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough
over the northeast U.S. This pattern should take the cyclone slowly
northwestward through Monday night, and the system will likely be
close enough to the Florida Panhandle to bring the potential for
tropical storm conditions there. After that time, a turn to the
west or west-northwest seems to be the most likely scenario as the
ridge over the southern U.S. builds eastward, taking the system near
or across the Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of
the week. The NHC track forecast lies a touch to the south of
middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the usually
best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI.

The sprawling nature of the system, nearby dry air, and some
northeasterly vertical wind shear suggest that any strengthening
should be slow to occur, especially in the short term.
Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm as it
approaches the Florida Panhandle during the next day or two. There
seems to be a better opportunity for the system to strengthen once
it turns westward, however, the amount of strengthening will be
dependent on how far offshore the circulation is. The NHC track
forecast lies toward the upper end of the model guidance, however,
there is a low amount of confidence given the uncertainty of how
much land interaction will take place.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida
Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued.

2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and
Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could
be required for portions of that area over the next day or two.

3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along
the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern
portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 28.0N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 191450
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
1500 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 20SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 85.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 191450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 85.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Florida from
Ochlockonee River to the Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48
hours.

Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 85.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h)
and a slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected
during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On
the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the
northern Gulf coast during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday.

The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011
mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches
through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from
western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and
Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi