Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for CHAN-HOM-26 in Japan, Russian Federation on 07 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for CHAN-HOM-26

in Japan, Russian Federation

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

07/08 04:01 WTPQ52RJTD070300

07/08 02:27 WTPN52PGTW070300

07/08 02:25 WTPN33PGTW070300

07/08 02:00 WTPQ32RJTD070000

07/08 01:03 WTPQ52RJTD070000

07/08 01:03 WTJP23RJTD070000

06/08 22:01 WTPQ52RJTD062100

06/08 19:52 WTPQ32RJTD061800

06/08 19:01 WTJP23RJTD061800

06/08 19:01 WTPQ52RJTD061800

06/08 16:02 WTPQ52RJTD061500

06/08 13:56 WTPQ32RJTD061200

06/08 13:08 WTJP23RJTD061200

06/08 13:08 WTPQ52RJTD061200

06/08 10:08 WTPQ52RJTD060900

06/08 07:52 WTPQ32RJTD060600

06/08 07:02 WTPQ52RJTD060600

06/08 07:02 WTJP23RJTD060600

06/08 04:00 WTPQ52RJTD060300

06/08 02:19 WTPQ32RJTD060000

06/08 01:17 WTJP23RJTD060000

06/08 01:16 WTPQ52RJTD060000

05/08 22:04 WTPQ52RJTD052100

05/08 19:58 WTPQ32RJTD051800

05/08 19:19 WTPQ52RJTD051800

05/08 19:18 WTJP23RJTD051800

05/08 16:03 WTPQ52RJTD051500

05/08 13:54 WTPQ32RJTD051200

05/08 13:17 WTPQ52RJTD051200

05/08 13:17 WTJP23RJTD051200

05/08 10:26 WTPQ52RJTD050900

05/08 07:49 WTPQ32RJTD050600

05/08 07:24 WTJP23RJTD050600

05/08 07:24 WTPQ52RJTD050600

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 29.4N 160.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 071500UTC 31.1N 158.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 080300UTC 32.8N 156.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 090000UTC 34.1N 151.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 100000UTC 34.6N 148.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 110000UTC 38.5N 144.1E 175NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 120000UTC 39.2N 139.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 260807012731
2026080700 14W CHAN-HOM 001 03 310 15 SATL 015
T000 292N 1608E 045 R034 320 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 245 NW QD
T012 309N 1590E 045 R034 280 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 323N 1565E 045 R034 230 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 334N 1534E 045 R034 190 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 338N 1512E 050 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T060 343N 1498E 050 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 150 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 355N 1485E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 392N 1441E 045 R034 170 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 405N 1374E 040 R034 310 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 29.2N 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 160.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 30.9N 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.3N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 33.4N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.8N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 34.3N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.5N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.2N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 40.5N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 160.3E.
07AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472
NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1426080312 156N1637E 15
1426080318 157N1639E 15
1426080400 159N1640E 15
1426080406 165N1650E 15
1426080412 175N1652E 20
1426080418 184N1655E 25
1426080500 197N1660E 30
1426080506 209N1665E 30
1426080512 225N1667E 30
1426080518 250N1653E 35
1426080600 256N1642E 40
1426080606 267N1630E 45
1426080612 273N1623E 45
1426080618 282N1621E 45
1426080700 292N1608E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 001//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061921ZAUG2026//
AMPN/REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 29.2N 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 160.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 30.9N 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.3N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 33.4N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.8N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 34.3N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.5N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.2N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 40.5N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 160.3E.
07AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472
NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z
IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
12W (DOLPHIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (KUJIRA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 061930).//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 29.3N, 161.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 29.3N 161.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 071200UTC 30.7N 159.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 080000UTC 32.4N 157.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 090000UTC 34.1N 151.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 100000UTC 34.6N 148.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 110000UTC 38.5N 144.1E 175NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 120000UTC 39.2N 139.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 29.3N 161.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 30.7N 159.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 32.4N 157.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 34.1N 151.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 34.6N 148.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 38.5N 144.1E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 39.2N 139.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 29.1N 161.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 070900UTC 30.5N 160.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 072100UTC 32.1N 158.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 081800UTC 34.2N 152.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 091800UTC 34.9N 149.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 101800UTC 39.0N 146.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 111800UTC 40.5N 142.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 28.3N, 161.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GOSAT-GW/AMSR3 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 28.3N 161.7E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 29.9N 160.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 31.8N 158.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 34.2N 152.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 34.9N 149.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 39.0N 146.5E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 40.5N 142.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 28.3N 161.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 070600UTC 29.9N 160.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 071800UTC 31.8N 158.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 081800UTC 34.2N 152.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 091800UTC 34.9N 149.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 101800UTC 39.0N 146.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 111800UTC 40.5N 142.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 27.7N 162.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 070300UTC 29.4N 160.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 071500UTC 31.2N 159.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 081200UTC 33.6N 153.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 091200UTC 34.7N 149.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 101200UTC 37.8N 147.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 111200UTC 41.4N 143.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 27.3N, 163.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 27.3N 163.0E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 29.0N 160.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 30.8N 159.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 33.6N 153.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 34.7N 149.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 37.8N 147.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 41.4N 143.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 27.3N 163.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 070000UTC 29.0N 160.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 071200UTC 30.8N 159.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 081200UTC 33.6N 153.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 091200UTC 34.7N 149.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 101200UTC 37.8N 147.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 111200UTC 41.4N 143.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 26.7N 163.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 062100UTC 28.7N 161.4E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070900UTC 30.5N 159.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 080600UTC 33.1N 155.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 090600UTC 35.3N 151.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 100600UTC 37.9N 148.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 110600UTC 41.3N 144.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 26.1N, 164.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 26.1N 164.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 061800UTC 28.1N 161.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070600UTC 30.0N 160.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 080600UTC 33.1N 155.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 090600UTC 35.3N 151.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 100600UTC 37.9N 148.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 110600UTC 41.3N 144.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 26.1N 164.6E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 28.1N 161.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 30.0N 160.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 33.1N 155.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 35.3N 151.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 37.9N 148.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 41.3N 144.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 25.5N 165.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 061500UTC 27.8N 161.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070300UTC 29.6N 160.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 080000UTC 32.3N 156.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 090000UTC 34.7N 151.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 100000UTC 36.6N 148.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 110000UTC 38.7N 144.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 24.8N, 166.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 996 HPA
AT 24.8N 166.0E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 27.1N 162.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 29.1N 160.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 32.3N 156.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 34.7N 151.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 36.6N 148.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 38.7N 144.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 24.8N 166.0E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 061200UTC 27.1N 162.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070000UTC 29.1N 160.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 080000UTC 32.3N 156.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 090000UTC 34.7N 151.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 100000UTC 36.6N 148.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 110000UTC 38.7N 144.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 24.0N 165.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 060900UTC 26.9N 162.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 062100UTC 28.5N 161.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 071800UTC 31.4N 157.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 081800UTC 34.2N 153.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 091800UTC 35.8N 149.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 101800UTC 38.5N 145.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 165.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 23.4N 165.8E FAIR
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 060600UTC 26.6N 163.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 061800UTC 28.1N 161.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 071800UTC 31.4N 157.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 081800UTC 34.2N 153.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 091800UTC 35.8N 149.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 101800UTC 38.5N 145.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 996 HPA
AT 23.4N 165.8E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 26.6N 163.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 28.1N 161.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 31.4N 157.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 34.2N 153.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 35.8N 149.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 38.5N 145.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 23.3N 165.7E FAIR
MOVE N 21KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 060300UTC 26.4N 164.4E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 061500UTC 28.3N 162.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 071200UTC 31.1N 159.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 081200UTC 33.3N 154.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 091200UTC 34.9N 150.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 101200UTC 38.9N 147.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 23.5N, 166.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 23.5N 166.1E POOR
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 060000UTC 25.9N 165.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 061200UTC 27.9N 162.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 071200UTC 31.1N 159.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 081200UTC 33.3N 154.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 091200UTC 34.9N 150.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 101200UTC 38.9N 147.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 996 HPA
AT 23.5N 166.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 18 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 25.9N 165.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 27.9N 162.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 31.1N 159.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 33.3N 154.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 34.9N 150.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 38.9N 147.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 21.2N 166.3E POOR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 052100UTC 24.1N 164.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 060900UTC 27.4N 163.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 070600UTC 30.2N 160.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 080600UTC 32.5N 155.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 090600UTC 33.7N 150.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 100600UTC 40.0N 148.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 19.0N, 165.3E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(CHAN-HOM) STATUS. TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 165.7E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC
IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 19.6N 165.7E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 22.5N 165.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 26.4N 164.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 30.2N 160.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 32.5N 155.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 33.7N 150.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 40.0N 148.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 19.6N 165.7E POOR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 051800UTC 22.5N 165.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 060600UTC 26.4N 164.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 070600UTC 30.2N 160.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 080600UTC 32.5N 155.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 090600UTC 33.7N 150.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 100600UTC 40.0N 148.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

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