Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for CHAN-HOM-26 in Japan from 07 Aug 2026 00:00 UTC to 11 Aug 2026 18:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for CHAN-HOM-26

in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

12/08 01:36 WTPQ32RJTD120000

12/08 00:41 WTPQ52RJTD120000

11/08 21:43 WTPQ52RJTD112100

11/08 20:10 WTPQ32RJTD111800

11/08 19:51 WTPN33PGTW112100

11/08 18:51 WTPQ52RJTD111800

11/08 18:51 WTJP23RJTD111800

11/08 15:50 WTPQ52RJTD111500

11/08 13:56 WTPQ32RJTD111200

11/08 13:45 WTPN33PGTW111500

11/08 12:51 WTPQ52RJTD111200

11/08 12:51 WTJP23RJTD111200

11/08 09:47 WTJP33RJTD110900

11/08 09:47 WTPQ52RJTD110900

11/08 07:56 WTPQ32RJTD110600

11/08 07:38 WTPN33PGTW110900

11/08 06:46 WTPQ52RJTD110600

11/08 06:45 WTJP23RJTD110600

11/08 03:47 WTJP33RJTD110300

11/08 03:47 WTPQ52RJTD110300

11/08 02:11 WTPN33PGTW110300

11/08 02:08 WTPQ32RJTD110000

11/08 00:47 WTPQ52RJTD110000

11/08 00:47 WTJP23RJTD110000

10/08 21:41 WTJP33RJTD102100

10/08 21:41 WTPQ52RJTD102100

10/08 19:47 WTPQ32RJTD101800

10/08 18:41 WTPQ52RJTD101800

10/08 18:40 WTJP23RJTD101800

10/08 15:42 WTJP33RJTD101500

10/08 15:42 WTPQ52RJTD101500

10/08 13:47 WTPQ32RJTD101200

10/08 12:41 WTPQ52RJTD101200

10/08 12:40 WTJP23RJTD101200

10/08 09:42 WTJP33RJTD100900

10/08 09:42 WTPQ52RJTD100900

10/08 07:56 WTPQ32RJTD100600

10/08 06:46 WTPQ52RJTD100600

10/08 06:45 WTJP23RJTD100600

10/08 03:41 WTJP33RJTD100300

10/08 03:41 WTPQ52RJTD100300

10/08 01:56 WTPN33PGTW100300

10/08 01:50 WTPQ32RJTD100000

10/08 00:43 WTPQ52RJTD100000

10/08 00:42 WTJP23RJTD100000

09/08 21:58 WTPQ52RJTD092100

09/08 19:59 WTPQ32RJTD091800

09/08 19:01 WTPQ52RJTD091800

09/08 19:00 WTJP23RJTD091800

09/08 15:52 WTPQ52RJTD091500

09/08 14:01 WTPN33PGTW091500

09/08 13:52 WTPQ32RJTD091200

09/08 12:58 WTPQ52RJTD091200

09/08 12:57 WTJP23RJTD091200

09/08 09:59 WTPQ52RJTD090900

09/08 08:14 WTPN33PGTW090900

09/08 07:50 WTPQ32RJTD090600

09/08 07:01 WTJP23RJTD090600

09/08 07:01 WTPQ52RJTD090600

09/08 04:00 WTPQ52RJTD090300

09/08 02:22 WTPN33PGTW090300

09/08 02:03 WTPQ32RJTD090000

09/08 01:05 WTJP23RJTD090000

09/08 01:05 WTPQ52RJTD090000

08/08 22:02 WTPQ52RJTD082100

08/08 19:51 WTPQ32RJTD081800

08/08 19:01 WTPQ52RJTD081800

08/08 19:01 WTJP23RJTD081800

08/08 16:01 WTPQ52RJTD081500

08/08 14:47 WTPN33PGTW081500

08/08 14:47 WTPN33PGTW080900

08/08 13:58 WTPQ32RJTD081200

08/08 13:01 WTPQ52RJTD081200

08/08 13:01 WTJP23RJTD081200

08/08 10:01 WTPQ52RJTD080900

08/08 07:50 WTPQ32RJTD080600

08/08 07:02 WTPQ52RJTD080600

08/08 07:02 WTJP23RJTD080600

08/08 04:01 WTPQ52RJTD080300

08/08 02:14 WTPN33PGTW080300

08/08 01:59 WTPQ32RJTD080000

08/08 01:02 WTJP23RJTD080000

08/08 01:02 WTPQ52RJTD080000

07/08 21:58 WTPQ52RJTD072100

07/08 19:51 WTPQ32RJTD071800

07/08 19:03 WTPQ52RJTD071800

07/08 19:02 WTJP23RJTD071800

07/08 16:04 WTPQ52RJTD071500

07/08 13:56 WTPN33PGTW071500

07/08 13:50 WTPQ32RJTD071200

07/08 13:07 WTPQ52RJTD071200

07/08 13:06 WTJP23RJTD071200

07/08 09:58 WTPQ52RJTD070900

07/08 07:46 WTPQ32RJTD070600

07/08 07:02 WTPQ52RJTD070600

07/08 07:01 WTJP23RJTD070600

07/08 04:01 WTPQ52RJTD070300

07/08 02:27 WTPN52PGTW070300

07/08 02:25 WTPN33PGTW070300

07/08 02:00 WTPQ32RJTD070000

07/08 01:03 WTPQ52RJTD070000

07/08 01:03 WTJP23RJTD070000

06/08 22:01 WTPQ52RJTD062100

06/08 19:52 WTPQ32RJTD061800

06/08 19:01 WTJP23RJTD061800

06/08 19:01 WTPQ52RJTD061800

06/08 16:02 WTPQ52RJTD061500

06/08 13:56 WTPQ32RJTD061200

06/08 13:08 WTJP23RJTD061200

06/08 13:08 WTPQ52RJTD061200

06/08 10:08 WTPQ52RJTD060900

06/08 07:52 WTPQ32RJTD060600

06/08 07:02 WTPQ52RJTD060600

06/08 07:02 WTJP23RJTD060600

06/08 04:00 WTPQ52RJTD060300

06/08 02:19 WTPQ32RJTD060000

06/08 01:17 WTJP23RJTD060000

06/08 01:16 WTPQ52RJTD060000

05/08 22:04 WTPQ52RJTD052100

05/08 19:58 WTPQ32RJTD051800

05/08 19:19 WTPQ52RJTD051800

05/08 19:18 WTJP23RJTD051800

05/08 16:03 WTPQ52RJTD051500

05/08 13:54 WTPQ32RJTD051200

05/08 13:17 WTPQ52RJTD051200

05/08 13:17 WTJP23RJTD051200

05/08 10:26 WTPQ52RJTD050900

05/08 07:49 WTPQ32RJTD050600

05/08 07:24 WTJP23RJTD050600

05/08 07:24 WTPQ52RJTD050600

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TD LOCATED AT 36N 135E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
CHAN-HOM (2615) HAS WEAKENED TO TD INTENSITY. THE TD IS LOCATED AT
36N, 135E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS NOW ONLY A VORTEX
CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 36N 135E
MOVE W 20KT
PRES 998HPA =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 112100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 112100UTC 35.8N 136.4E GOOD
MOVE W 20KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTH 90NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 120900UTC 36.0N 133.5E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 122100UTC 36.0N 131.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 35.6N, 137.2E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING
OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 020
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 35.8N 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 35.8N 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 36.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 36.1N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 35.9N 136.5E.
11AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 79 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMP FUJI, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME ILL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY, AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS OVER JAPAN REVEAL VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION PATTERN. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OFFSHORE
TO THE NORTH OF HONSHU WERE UP TO 30 KT IN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
DATA FROM 111501Z. NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE THAT 14W WILL EMERGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEA OF JAPAN AS AN OPEN TROUGH AND CONTINUE QUICKLY
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
111800Z IS 12 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (PEILOU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15W (FIFTEEN) FINAL WARNING (WTPN34 PGTW)
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 35.6N 137.2E GOOD
MOVE W 22KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 120600UTC 36.0N 134.2E 45NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 121800UTC 36.0N 131.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 111800
WARNING 111800.
WARNING VALID 121800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 996 HPA
AT 35.6N 137.2E HONSHU MOVING WEST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 36.0N 134.2E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 36.0N 131.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 111500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111500UTC 35.7N 139.0E GOOD
MOVE WSW 20KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 120300UTC 35.9N 135.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 121500UTC 35.9N 132.4E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR STS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 36.0N, 140.3E. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT06 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT06 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT18 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT18. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 019
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 36.0N 140.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.0N 140.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 36.0N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 36.1N 133.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 36.0N 139.0E.
11AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 27
NM NORTHWEST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 994 MB. NEXT WARNINGS AT
112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W
(PEILOU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) FINAL WARNING
(WTPN34 PGTW).//
NNNN

/0000301300
00001

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 36.0N 140.3E GOOD
MOVE WSW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 120000UTC 35.8N 135.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 121200UTC 35.9N 132.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 111200
WARNING 111200.
WARNING VALID 121200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 985 HPA
AT 36.0N 140.3E HONSHU MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 35.8N 135.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 35.9N 132.9E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 110900
WARNING 110900.
WARNING VALID 120900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 980 HPA
AT 36.0N 141.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 35.5N 136.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 35.9N 133.4E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 36.0N 141.5E GOOD
MOVE WSW 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 112100UTC 35.5N 136.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 120900UTC 35.9N 133.4E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR STS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 36.4N, 142.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT06. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT15 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT21
DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS,
LOW TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 36.5N 142.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.5N 142.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 36.0N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 36.2N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 36.3N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 36.4N 141.0E.
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 36.4N 142.0E GOOD
MOVE WSW 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 210NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 111800UTC 35.4N 137.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 120600UTC 35.9N 134.2E 57NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 110600
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 36.4N 142.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 35.4N 137.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 35.9N 134.2E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 110300
WARNING 110300.
WARNING VALID 120300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 985 HPA
AT 36.6N 142.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 35.7N 138.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120300UTC AT 35.8N 134.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 36.6N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE W 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 111500UTC 35.7N 138.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 120300UTC 35.8N 134.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 130000UTC 35.6N 130.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 017 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 36.8N 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.8N 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 36.2N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 36.2N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 36.2N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 36.1N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 36.7N 142.7E.
11AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (PEILOU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) FINAL WARNING (WTPN34
PGTW).
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 36.9N, 143.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE
CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT15. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 36.9N 143.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 111200UTC 36.0N 140.1E 30NM 70%
MOVE WSW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 120000UTC 35.8N 135.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 130000UTC 35.6N 130.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 110000
WARNING 110000.
WARNING VALID 120000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 985 HPA
AT 36.9N 143.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 36.0N 140.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 35.8N 135.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 35.6N 130.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 102100
WARNING 102100.
WARNING VALID 112100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 985 HPA
AT 37.1N 145.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 36.2N 140.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 35.7N 136.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 37.1N 145.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 110900UTC 36.2N 140.8E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 112100UTC 35.7N 136.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 19KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 121800UTC 35.8N 131.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 36.7N, 145.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND
THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER
VORTEX UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT18. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT15 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT18 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LAND AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT36. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 36.7N 145.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 110600UTC 36.4N 141.9E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 111800UTC 35.6N 137.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 20KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 121800UTC 35.8N 131.6E 85NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 985 HPA
AT 36.7N 145.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 36.4N 141.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 35.6N 137.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 35.8N 131.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 101500
WARNING 101500.
WARNING VALID 111500.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 985 HPA
AT 36.2N 146.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 36.6N 142.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111500UTC AT 35.6N 138.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 36.2N 146.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 110300UTC 36.6N 142.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 111500UTC 35.6N 138.6E 42NM 70%
MOVE WSW 18KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 121200UTC 35.7N 132.6E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 35.2N, 147.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND
THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 35.2N 147.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 110000UTC 36.4N 143.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 111200UTC 36.0N 139.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 121200UTC 35.7N 132.6E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 990 HPA
AT 35.2N 147.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 36.4N 143.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 36.0N 139.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 35.7N 132.6E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 100900
WARNING 100900.
WARNING VALID 110900.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 990 HPA
AT 35.1N 148.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 102100UTC AT 36.7N 144.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 36.4N 141.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 35.1N 148.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 102100UTC 36.7N 144.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 110900UTC 36.4N 141.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 120600UTC 35.7N 133.9E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 34.6N, 149.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS
85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT36. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 34.6N 149.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 101800UTC 36.4N 146.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 110600UTC 36.5N 142.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 120600UTC 35.7N 133.9E 115NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 100600
WARNING 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 990 HPA
AT 34.6N 149.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 36.4N 146.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 36.5N 142.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 35.7N 133.9E WITH 115 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 100300
WARNING 100300.
WARNING VALID 110300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 990 HPA
AT 34.1N 149.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101500UTC AT 36.1N 146.8E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110300UTC AT 36.8N 143.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 34.1N 149.3E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 270NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 101500UTC 36.1N 146.8E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 110300UTC 36.8N 143.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 120000UTC 36.6N 135.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 130000UTC 35.9N 130.1E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 013
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 33.7N 149.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 149.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 35.3N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 36.3N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 36.3N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 36.1N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 36.0N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 35.7N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 34.1N 149.2E.
10AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 503
NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (PEILOU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W (FIFTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 33.8N, 149.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 33.8N 149.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 101200UTC 35.6N 147.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 110000UTC 36.9N 144.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 120000UTC 36.6N 135.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 130000UTC 35.9N 130.1E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 990 HPA
AT 33.8N 149.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 35.6N 147.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 36.9N 144.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 36.6N 135.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 35.9N 130.1E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 33.3N 150.5E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 100900UTC 35.1N 148.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 102100UTC 36.8N 145.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 111800UTC 36.3N 136.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 121800UTC 36.3N 131.4E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 33.1N, 150.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 33.1N 150.4E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 100600UTC 34.7N 148.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 101800UTC 36.5N 146.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 111800UTC 36.3N 136.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 121800UTC 36.3N 131.4E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 091800
WARNING 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 990 HPA
AT 33.1N 150.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 34.7N 148.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 36.5N 146.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 36.3N 136.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 36.3N 131.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 32.8N 150.6E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 100300UTC 34.3N 149.3E 25NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 101500UTC 36.2N 147.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 111200UTC 37.2N 139.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 121200UTC 36.0N 132.7E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 32.3N 150.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.3N 150.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.5N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 35.2N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 32.3N, 150.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL
FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 32.3N 150.8E GOOD
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 100000UTC 33.9N 149.7E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 101200UTC 35.8N 147.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 111200UTC 37.2N 139.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 121200UTC 36.0N 132.7E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 990 HPA
AT 32.3N 150.8E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 33.9N 149.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 35.8N 147.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 37.2N 139.6E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 36.0N 132.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 32.2N 150.7E GOOD
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 092100UTC 33.5N 150.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 100900UTC 35.3N 148.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 110600UTC 37.8N 142.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 120600UTC 37.2N 133.9E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 32.3N 150.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.3N 150.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 32.7N 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 34.5N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 36.2N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 37.0N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 37.3N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 37.1N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 36.3N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 32.4N 150.5E. 09AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-
HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090600Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z,
100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (PEILOU)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 32.3N, 150.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 090600
WARNING 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 990 HPA
AT 32.3N 150.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 33.2N 150.4E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 34.9N 149.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 37.8N 142.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 37.2N 133.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 32.3N 150.7E GOOD
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 091800UTC 33.2N 150.4E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 100600UTC 34.9N 149.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 110600UTC 37.8N 142.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 120600UTC 37.2N 133.9E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 32.3N 150.9E GOOD
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 091500UTC 33.2N 150.6E 25NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 100300UTC 34.8N 149.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 110000UTC 38.0N 144.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 120000UTC 37.8N 135.5E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 32.4N 151.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 151.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 32.7N 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 33.9N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 35.6N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 37.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 37.5N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 37.7N 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 36.9N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 32.5N 150.8E.
09AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 589
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 090000Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (KUJIRA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

0000583400
00001

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 32.4N, 151.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS ONLY
A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 090000
WARNING 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 32.4N 151.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 32.8N 150.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 34.4N 149.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 38.0N 144.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 37.8N 135.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 32.4N 151.0E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 091200UTC 32.8N 150.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 100000UTC 34.4N 149.8E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 110000UTC 38.0N 144.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 120000UTC 37.8N 135.5E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 32.5N 151.4E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 090900UTC 32.7N 151.0E 25NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 092100UTC 34.0N 150.2E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 101800UTC 37.4N 146.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 111800UTC 38.0N 137.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 121800UTC 37.3N 131.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 32.7N, 151.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT72.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 32.7N 151.7E FAIR
MOVE WSW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 090600UTC 32.6N 151.1E 25NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 091800UTC 33.6N 150.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 101800UTC 37.4N 146.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 111800UTC 38.0N 137.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 121800UTC 37.3N 131.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 32.7N 151.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 32.6N 151.1E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 33.6N 150.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 37.4N 146.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 38.0N 137.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 37.3N 131.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 32.8N 152.2E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 090300UTC 32.5N 151.2E 30NM 70%
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 091500UTC 33.2N 150.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 101200UTC 36.5N 148.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 111200UTC 38.2N 140.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 121200UTC 37.6N 132.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 33.1N 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.1N 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.0N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 33.5N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 33.0N 154.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.0N 154.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 33.2N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 33.5N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 33.1N, 153.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 33.1N 153.2E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 090000UTC 32.5N 151.3E 30NM 70%
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 091200UTC 33.0N 150.9E 42NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 101200UTC 36.5N 148.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 111200UTC 38.2N 140.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 121200UTC 37.6N 132.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 33.1N 153.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 32.5N 151.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 33.0N 150.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 36.5N 148.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 38.2N 140.0E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 37.6N 132.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 33.0N 154.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 082100UTC 32.6N 151.7E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 090900UTC 32.8N 151.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 100600UTC 35.4N 149.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 110600UTC 38.7N 142.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 120600UTC 38.3N 134.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 130600UTC 37.1N 129.9E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 33.0N, 154.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-20/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT96. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 33.0N 154.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 081800UTC 32.5N 152.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 090600UTC 32.5N 151.1E 42NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 100600UTC 35.4N 149.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 110600UTC 38.7N 142.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 120600UTC 38.3N 134.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 130600UTC 37.1N 129.9E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 080600
WARNING 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 33.0N 154.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 32.5N 152.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 32.5N 151.1E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 35.4N 149.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 38.7N 142.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 38.3N 134.0E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 37.1N 129.9E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 32.8N 155.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 081500UTC 32.7N 152.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 090300UTC 32.6N 151.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 100000UTC 34.3N 149.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 110000UTC 38.6N 144.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 120000UTC 39.0N 135.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 130000UTC 37.8N 130.2E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 32.4N 156.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.4N 156.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 32.9N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.0N 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 32.4N, 156.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 080000
WARNING 080000.
WARNING VALID 090000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 32.4N 156.6E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 32.9N 153.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 32.6N 151.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 34.3N 149.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 38.6N 144.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 39.0N 135.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 37.8N 130.2E WITH 215 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 32.4N 156.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 081200UTC 32.9N 153.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 090000UTC 32.6N 151.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 100000UTC 34.3N 149.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 110000UTC 38.6N 144.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 120000UTC 39.0N 135.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 130000UTC 37.8N 130.2E 215NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 31.8N 157.7E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 080900UTC 32.9N 154.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 082100UTC 32.8N 151.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 091800UTC 33.6N 150.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 101800UTC 38.1N 145.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 111800UTC 38.6N 136.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 121800UTC 37.2N 131.3E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 31.8N, 158.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. NOAA-21/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN
BY FT96. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
UNTIL FT96 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 31.8N 158.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 080600UTC 32.9N 155.3E 40NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 081800UTC 33.0N 152.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 091800UTC 33.6N 150.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 101800UTC 38.1N 145.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 111800UTC 38.6N 136.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 121800UTC 37.2N 131.3E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 31.8N 158.6E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 32.9N 155.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 33.0N 152.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 33.6N 150.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 38.1N 145.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 38.6N 136.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 37.2N 131.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 31.5N 159.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 080300UTC 32.7N 156.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 081500UTC 33.4N 152.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 091200UTC 33.2N 150.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 101200UTC 37.1N 147.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 111200UTC 38.4N 139.0E 175NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 121200UTC 37.0N 132.3E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 003
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 31.0N 159.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 31.0N 159.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.5N 157.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 33.3N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.6N 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 34.0N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.0N 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 36.6N 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 38.5N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 39.0N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 31.4N 159.2E.
07AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 1064 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 12W (DOLPHIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 30.9N, 159.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND
LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 30.9N 159.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 080000UTC 32.4N 157.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 081200UTC 33.5N 153.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 091200UTC 33.2N 150.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 101200UTC 37.1N 147.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 111200UTC 38.4N 139.0E 175NM 70%
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 121200UTC 37.0N 132.3E 250NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 996 HPA
AT 30.9N 159.7E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 32.4N 157.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 33.5N 153.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 33.2N 150.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 37.1N 147.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 38.4N 139.0E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 121200UTC AT 37.0N 132.3E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 30.0N 160.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 500NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 072100UTC 32.0N 158.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 080900UTC 33.4N 154.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 090600UTC 33.2N 150.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 100600UTC 35.3N 148.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 110600UTC 38.4N 141.7E 175NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 120600UTC 37.7N 136.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 29.7N, 160.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT JAPAN BY FT120.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 29.7N 160.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 500NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 071800UTC 31.6N 158.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 080600UTC 33.2N 155.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 090600UTC 33.2N 150.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 100600UTC 35.3N 148.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 110600UTC 38.4N 141.7E 175NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 120600UTC 37.7N 136.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 996 HPA
AT 29.7N 160.3E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 31.6N 158.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 33.2N 155.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 33.2N 150.1E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 35.3N 148.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 38.4N 141.7E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 37.7N 136.8E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 29.4N 160.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 071500UTC 31.1N 158.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 080300UTC 32.8N 156.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 090000UTC 34.1N 151.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 100000UTC 34.6N 148.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 110000UTC 38.5N 144.1E 175NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 120000UTC 39.2N 139.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 14W NWP 260807012731
2026080700 14W CHAN-HOM 001 03 310 15 SATL 015
T000 292N 1608E 045 R034 320 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 245 NW QD
T012 309N 1590E 045 R034 280 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 323N 1565E 045 R034 230 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 334N 1534E 045 R034 190 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 338N 1512E 050 R050 020 NE QD 060 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T060 343N 1498E 050 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 150 SE QD 060 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 355N 1485E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 392N 1441E 045 R034 170 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 405N 1374E 040 R034 310 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 29.2N 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 160.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 30.9N 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.3N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 33.4N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.8N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 34.3N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.5N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.2N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 40.5N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 160.3E.
07AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472
NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1426080312 156N1637E 15
1426080318 157N1639E 15
1426080400 159N1640E 15
1426080406 165N1650E 15
1426080412 175N1652E 20
1426080418 184N1655E 25
1426080500 197N1660E 30
1426080506 209N1665E 30
1426080512 225N1667E 30
1426080518 250N1653E 35
1426080600 256N1642E 40
1426080606 267N1630E 45
1426080612 273N1623E 45
1426080618 282N1621E 45
1426080700 292N1608E 45
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 001//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061921ZAUG2026//
AMPN/REF C IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 29.2N 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 320 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
245 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.2N 160.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 30.9N 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.3N 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 33.4N 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 33.8N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 34.3N 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 35.5N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 39.2N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 40.5N 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 29.6N 160.3E.
07AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 14W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472
NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z
IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON
12W (DOLPHIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (KUJIRA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 061930).//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 29.3N, 161.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND WEAK
VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT96 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 29.3N 161.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM NORTHEAST 300NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 071200UTC 30.7N 159.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 080000UTC 32.4N 157.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 090000UTC 34.1N 151.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 100000UTC 34.6N 148.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 110000UTC 38.5N 144.1E 175NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 120000UTC 39.2N 139.7E 250NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 29.3N 161.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 30.7N 159.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 32.4N 157.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 34.1N 151.2E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 34.6N 148.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 38.5N 144.1E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 39.2N 139.7E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 29.1N 161.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 070900UTC 30.5N 160.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 072100UTC 32.1N 158.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 081800UTC 34.2N 152.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 091800UTC 34.9N 149.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 101800UTC 39.0N 146.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 111800UTC 40.5N 142.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 28.3N, 161.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GOSAT-GW/AMSR3 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 28.3N 161.7E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 29.9N 160.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 31.8N 158.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 34.2N 152.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 34.9N 149.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 39.0N 146.5E WITH 175 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 40.5N 142.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 28.3N 161.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 070600UTC 29.9N 160.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 071800UTC 31.8N 158.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 081800UTC 34.2N 152.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 091800UTC 34.9N 149.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 101800UTC 39.0N 146.5E 175NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 111800UTC 40.5N 142.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 27.7N 162.2E FAIR
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 070300UTC 29.4N 160.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 071500UTC 31.2N 159.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 081200UTC 33.6N 153.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 091200UTC 34.7N 149.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 101200UTC 37.8N 147.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 111200UTC 41.4N 143.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 27.3N, 163.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT120 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 27.3N 163.0E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 500 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 29.0N 160.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 30.8N 159.5E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 33.6N 153.9E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 34.7N 149.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 37.8N 147.6E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 41.4N 143.1E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 27.3N 163.0E FAIR
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 500NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 070000UTC 29.0N 160.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 071200UTC 30.8N 159.5E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 081200UTC 33.6N 153.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 091200UTC 34.7N 149.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 101200UTC 37.8N 147.6E 200NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 111200UTC 41.4N 143.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 26.7N 163.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 062100UTC 28.7N 161.4E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070900UTC 30.5N 159.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 080600UTC 33.1N 155.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 090600UTC 35.3N 151.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 100600UTC 37.9N 148.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 110600UTC 41.3N 144.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 26.1N, 164.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 26.1N 164.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 061800UTC 28.1N 161.5E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070600UTC 30.0N 160.4E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 080600UTC 33.1N 155.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 090600UTC 35.3N 151.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 100600UTC 37.9N 148.0E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 110600UTC 41.3N 144.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 994 HPA
AT 26.1N 164.6E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHWEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 28.1N 161.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 30.0N 160.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 33.1N 155.4E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 35.3N 151.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 37.9N 148.0E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 41.3N 144.0E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 25.5N 165.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 061500UTC 27.8N 161.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070300UTC 29.6N 160.7E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 080000UTC 32.3N 156.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 090000UTC 34.7N 151.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 100000UTC 36.6N 148.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 110000UTC 38.7N 144.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 24.8N, 166.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. METOP-B/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 996 HPA
AT 24.8N 166.0E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 27.1N 162.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 29.1N 160.9E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 32.3N 156.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 34.7N 151.6E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 36.6N 148.4E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 38.7N 144.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 24.8N 166.0E FAIR
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 061200UTC 27.1N 162.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 070000UTC 29.1N 160.9E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 080000UTC 32.3N 156.8E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 090000UTC 34.7N 151.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 100000UTC 36.6N 148.4E 200NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 110000UTC 38.7N 144.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 24.0N 165.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 060900UTC 26.9N 162.8E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 062100UTC 28.5N 161.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 071800UTC 31.4N 157.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 081800UTC 34.2N 153.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 091800UTC 35.8N 149.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 101800UTC 38.5N 145.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 165.8E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 23.4N 165.8E FAIR
MOVE N 19KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 060600UTC 26.6N 163.2E 40NM 70%
MOVE NW 20KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 061800UTC 28.1N 161.6E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 071800UTC 31.4N 157.9E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 081800UTC 34.2N 153.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 091800UTC 35.8N 149.2E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 101800UTC 38.5N 145.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 996 HPA
AT 23.4N 165.8E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 26.6N 163.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 28.1N 161.6E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 31.4N 157.9E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 34.2N 153.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 35.8N 149.2E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 38.5N 145.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 23.3N 165.7E FAIR
MOVE N 21KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 060300UTC 26.4N 164.4E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 061500UTC 28.3N 162.4E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 071200UTC 31.1N 159.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 081200UTC 33.3N 154.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 091200UTC 34.9N 150.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 101200UTC 38.9N 147.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 23.5N, 166.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC IS
OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 23.5N 166.1E POOR
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 400NM EAST 300NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 060000UTC 25.9N 165.0E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 061200UTC 27.9N 162.8E 57NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 071200UTC 31.1N 159.5E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 081200UTC 33.3N 154.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 091200UTC 34.9N 150.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 101200UTC 38.9N 147.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) 996 HPA
AT 23.5N 166.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTH 18 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 400 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 25.9N 165.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 27.9N 162.8E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 31.1N 159.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 33.3N 154.2E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 34.9N 150.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 38.9N 147.9E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 21.2N 166.3E POOR
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 052100UTC 24.1N 164.9E 40NM 70%
MOVE NNW 16KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 060900UTC 27.4N 163.3E 57NM 70%
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 070600UTC 30.2N 160.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 080600UTC 32.5N 155.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 090600UTC 33.7N 150.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 100600UTC 40.0N 148.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 19.0N, 165.3E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(CHAN-HOM) STATUS. TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 165.7E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR BECAUSE THE CSC
IS OBSCURE. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED
FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE
FROM INTENSIFICATION. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT120 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND STRONG VWS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 19.6N 165.7E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 22.5N 165.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 26.4N 164.1E WITH 57 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 30.2N 160.2E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 32.5N 155.4E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 33.7N 150.9E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 40.0N 148.2E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2615 CHAN-HOM (2615) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 19.6N 165.7E POOR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM
FORECAST
12HF 051800UTC 22.5N 165.1E 40NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 060600UTC 26.4N 164.1E 57NM 70%
MOVE N 20KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 070600UTC 30.2N 160.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 080600UTC 32.5N 155.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 090600UTC 33.7N 150.9E 200NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 100600UTC 40.0N 148.2E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNW 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

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