Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for TWO-C-26
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 250852
TCDCP3

Remnants Of Moke Discussion Number 20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 24 2026

Based on recent proxy-visible satellite images, the ill-defined
circulation of Moke does not appear to be closed. A lack of tightly
curved cloud lines on the south side of the system suggests that
Moke has likely opened up into a trough. In addition, the sporadic
bursts of convection noted earlier today have collapsed during the
past several hours. Since Moke no longer meets the criteria of a
tropical cyclone, this will be the final NHC advisory on the system.
There are still likely 25 to 30-kt winds occurring to the north of
the trough axis. The remnants of Moke are expected to move generally
westward while gradually weakening over the next day or so.

This is the final NHC advisory on the remnants of Moke. For
additional information, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 16.3N 164.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 250851
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST MON AUG 24 2026

...MOKE IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 164.1W
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF MOKE WERE LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.1 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 250850
TCMCP3

REMNANTS OF MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC TUE AUG 25 2026

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 164.1W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 164.1W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 163.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 164.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 250241
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number 19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Aug 24 2026

An earlier burst of convection appears to have helped Moke maintain
its status as a tropical depression for now. ASCAT-C data near 2100
UTC showed it still has a stretched, but well-enough defined
circulation, with maximum believable winds near 30 kt. Therefore,
the initial intensity is held at that value for this forecast
advisory. Since then, another convective burst has formed north of
Moke's center, but recent visible imagery also indicates that
center has become less well-defined over time.

All models continue to indicate that Moke will become post-tropical
very soon. In fact, based on recent trends it may open into a
remnant trough of low pressure tonight before it totally loses its
deep convection. Regardless, no significant changes were made to
the NHC forecast with the models in good agreement on the forecast
for the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 16.0N 163.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 16.0N 165.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 250240
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 163.0W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 163.0W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 162.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.0N 165.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 163.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 250240
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST MON AUG 24 2026

...MOKE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 163.0W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM E OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MOKE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 242032
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number 18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 24 2026

A large burst of convection has formed on the western side of Moke,
with little convection elsewhere due to dry air. Satellite
intensity estimates are basically unchanged from earlier, so the
initial wind speed remains 30 kt. While many convective bursts can
lead to intensification, some of these strong bursts can actually
cause the system to weaken due to dry air entrainment and strong
downbursts distorting the low-level circulation. All of the
models suggest that this is the last significant burst, and thus the
system is likely to either open up in a trough or cease organized
deep convection tonight. Thus no changes were made to the intensity
or dissipation forecast of Moke.

The depression continues moving just north of due west at about 14
kt. There are no changes to the forecast as a strong high pressure
area steers the storm on the same general path for the next day or
two. Even though Moke is well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands,
periods of heavy rain could still cause flash flooding across
portions of the Big Island today.

Key Messages:

1. Localized heavy rain associated with Tropical Depression Moke
will continue over the Hawaiian Islands today. This rainfall may
produce areas of flash flooding for portions of the Big Island,
including flood-prone and low-lying locations, as well as urban
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 15.7N 161.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 16.1N 163.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/1800Z 16.6N 166.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 242030
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC MON AUG 24 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 161.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS....150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 161.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 161.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.1N 163.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.6N 166.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 161.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 241436
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Aug 24 2026

Moke continues to be in a disorganized state, with only sporadic
bursts of convection in the northern semicircle. A recent OSCAT
pass showed maximum winds of about 30 kt in a small area on the
northern side of the circulation, so the initial intensity will
remain 30 kt on this advisory. The scatterometer pass also showed
that the circulation was losing definition and becoming somewhat
elongated. Given this structure and the persistent shear plus
dry environment, Moke is not likely to hold onto tropical-cyclone
status for much longer. Thus the new forecast shows that Moke will
dissipate later today, which is consistent with the latest model
guidance.

The depression continues moving slightly north of due west at about
12 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge should hold firm north of
Moke until the cyclone dissipates. The new forecast is similar to
the last forecast and is on the southern side of the guidance.
Even though Moke is well south of the Hawaiian Islands, periods of
heavy rain causing flash flooding are possible across portions of
the Big Island today.

Key Messages:

1. Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Moke will continue
over the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce
areas of flash flooding for the windward and southeast Big Island,
especially in steep terrain and over areas that were affected
recently by Lala. Flood prone and low lying locations, as well as
urban areas, may also see instances of flash flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 15.5N 160.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.8N 162.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/1200Z 16.3N 164.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 241435
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST MON AUG 24 2026

...FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 160.2W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SW OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, TAKING THE
SYSTEM FARTHER AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND MOKE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA LATE TODAY AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA43 PHFO.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ON EASTERN MAUI. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING FOR THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS
THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA. FLOOD PRONE AND LOW LYING
LOCATIONS, AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS MAY ALSO SEE INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 241435
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 160.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 160.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 159.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.8N 162.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 164.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 160.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 240850
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number 16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

Proxy-visible satellite images of Moke show the low-level center
remains exposed tonight. The depression has only produced small,
intermittent bursts of convection over the northern part of its
circulation during the past several hours. Although Moke is centered
well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands, NWS radar data and
surface observations indicate that heavy rain and gusty winds are
spreading across portions of the Big Island of Hawaii and Maui.
Based on earlier scatterometer data and given no recent improvements
to the satellite presentation of Moke, the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt.

The depression is moving westward (275/11 kt) and should continue on
this heading for the next couple of days while being steered by a
strong low- to mid-level ridge to its north. No notable changes were
made to the NHC track forecast, which keeps the center of Moke well
south of the main Hawaiian Islands. Regardless, periods of heavy
rain and gusty winds are expected across portions of the islands
overnight through Monday.

Moke may not remain a tropical cyclone for much longer if it is
unable to generate more organized convection soon. Persistent
southwesterly shear and the drier surrounding mid-level environment
suggest this is unlikely to occur. Based on recent satellite trends
and the latest global model wind fields and simulated satellite
images, the updated NHC forecast now shows Moke becoming a
post-tropical remnant low in 24 h and dissipating by 48 h. Note that
this could occur even sooner than forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Moke will continue
over the Big Island while spreading westward across the remainder of
the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and
southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas
that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Strong, gusty winds are likely as Moke passes south of the main
Hawaiian Islands, particularly in areas within and downslope of
higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 15.3N 158.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.6N 160.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 16.1N 162.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/1800Z 16.7N 165.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 240849
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2026

...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII AND MAUI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 158.6W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SW OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 158.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF MOKE WILL PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII OVERNIGHT AND WELL SOUTH OF THE SMALLER MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND MOKE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA BY LATE MONDAY AND DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).
NOAA BUOY 51002 TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MOKE RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 31 MPH (50 KM/H) AND A GUST OF 36 MPH (58 KM/H).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA43 PHFO.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON
EASTERN MAUI. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND,
ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED
RECENTLY BY LALA.

ACROSS WESTERN MAUI AND THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MOKE MAY PRODUCE UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 240848
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC MON AUG 24 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 158.6W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 158.6W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 157.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.6N 160.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.1N 162.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 165.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 158.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 240421

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.08.2026

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 115.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2026 0 17.2N 115.7W 1000 42
1200UTC 24.08.2026 12 18.5N 117.8W 998 44
0000UTC 25.08.2026 24 19.5N 120.1W 998 44
1200UTC 25.08.2026 36 20.8N 122.0W 999 42
0000UTC 26.08.2026 48 21.9N 124.0W 1000 38
1200UTC 26.08.2026 60 22.7N 126.4W 1003 26
0000UTC 27.08.2026 72 23.6N 127.8W 1004 26
1200UTC 27.08.2026 84 25.0N 129.1W 1006 22
0000UTC 28.08.2026 96 25.7N 129.8W 1007 24
1200UTC 28.08.2026 108 26.2N 130.5W 1010 21
0000UTC 29.08.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LALA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.8N 174.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2026 0 32.8N 174.5W 989 42
1200UTC 24.08.2026 12 33.3N 175.1W 991 41
0000UTC 25.08.2026 24 34.0N 175.6W 991 39
1200UTC 25.08.2026 36 34.5N 176.6W 993 38
0000UTC 26.08.2026 48 34.9N 177.5W 997 36
1200UTC 26.08.2026 60 35.4N 178.2W 1000 41
0000UTC 27.08.2026 72 36.2N 178.9W 1003 40
1200UTC 27.08.2026 84 37.2N 179.4W 1003 38
0000UTC 28.08.2026 96 38.5N 179.9E 1003 35
1200UTC 28.08.2026 108 39.9N 179.5E 1003 31
0000UTC 29.08.2026 120 41.2N 179.2E 1004 37
1200UTC 29.08.2026 132 43.0N 178.0E 1008 32
0000UTC 30.08.2026 144 45.8N 176.7E 1011 32
1200UTC 30.08.2026 156 50.1N 177.6E 1014 31
0000UTC 31.08.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 156.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2026 0 14.7N 156.9W 1006 28
1200UTC 24.08.2026 12 15.1N 159.6W 1007 29
0000UTC 25.08.2026 24 15.9N 162.3W 1008 25
1200UTC 25.08.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.5N 29.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2026 60 12.5N 29.8W 1010 30
0000UTC 27.08.2026 72 12.6N 33.6W 1008 30
1200UTC 27.08.2026 84 12.7N 37.4W 1007 33
0000UTC 28.08.2026 96 13.9N 41.5W 1009 33
1200UTC 28.08.2026 108 14.9N 46.3W 1010 33
0000UTC 29.08.2026 120 16.2N 51.0W 1011 31
1200UTC 29.08.2026 132 17.7N 55.5W 1012 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 144 18.5N 59.5W 1012 31
1200UTC 30.08.2026 156 19.2N 63.0W 1012 33
0000UTC 31.08.2026 168 19.5N 65.7W 1011 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.0N 115.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2026 84 10.0N 115.4W 1004 28
0000UTC 28.08.2026 96 10.9N 117.6W 1002 31
1200UTC 28.08.2026 108 11.7N 118.9W 1002 33
0000UTC 29.08.2026 120 12.9N 121.7W 1001 37
1200UTC 29.08.2026 132 13.8N 123.9W 1000 36
0000UTC 30.08.2026 144 15.4N 126.6W 997 40
1200UTC 30.08.2026 156 16.0N 129.2W 996 40
0000UTC 31.08.2026 168 17.2N 131.9W 994 43

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 13.0N 139.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2026 96 13.2N 138.7W 1004 24
1200UTC 28.08.2026 108 14.0N 138.8W 1004 23
0000UTC 29.08.2026 120 14.2N 140.1W 1004 26
1200UTC 29.08.2026 132 14.8N 142.0W 1003 27
0000UTC 30.08.2026 144 15.2N 144.0W 1003 27
1200UTC 30.08.2026 156 15.8N 146.5W 1005 30
0000UTC 31.08.2026 168 16.5N 149.0W 1005 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 10.8N 115.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2026 168 10.6N 116.7W 1004 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 11.4N 156.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2026 168 11.3N 156.3W 1005 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240421


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 240233
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number 15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

Convection associated with Moke has decreased significantly during
the past several hours. The cyclone is now comprised of an exposed
swirl of low- to mid-level clouds, with the remaining convection
now located just south of the Island of Hawaii well to the
northeast of the center. Just-received OSCAT data shows maximum
winds of 25 to maybe 30 kt, and based on this Moke is being
downgraded to a tropical depression.

A combination of southwesterly shear and dry air entrainment
should continue to inhibit Moke's ability to develop convection.
The dynamical models forecast the cyclone to keep weakening, with
the system likely to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h at the
latest and to a trough by 72 h. The intensity forecast follows
this, and it is possible that Moke will dissipate faster than
currently forecast if significant convection does not re-develop.

The initial motion is 275/12 kt. A strong low- to mid-level
ridge should steer the cyclone generally westward for the remainder
of its life, keeping Moke well south of the main Hawaiian Islands.
The guidance again nudged southward, and the new forecast track is a
little south of the previous track. Despite this nudge and the
weakening of the cyclone, Moke is still expected to pass close
enough to the Hawaiian Islands to produce a period of gusty winds
and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next
day or two.


Key Messages:

1. Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Moke will continue
over the Big Island while spreading westward across the remainder of
the Hawaiian Islands through Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the windward and
southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and over areas
that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 15.3N 157.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.4N 159.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.8N 161.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.3N 164.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 16.8N 167.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 26/1200Z 17.3N 169.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 240233
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SUN AUG 23 2026

...MOKE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII TODAY AND TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 157.3W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 157.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF MOKE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TONIGHT, THEN WELL
SOUTH OF THE SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NOW NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND MOKE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA BY TUESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA43 PHFO.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED ON EASTERN MAUI. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS
THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

ACROSS WESTERN MAUI AND THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS, MOISTURE DRAWN
NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE MAY BRING UP TO 1 OR 2
INCHES OF RAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 240232
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC MON AUG 24 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 157.3W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 157.3W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 156.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.4N 159.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.8N 161.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 164.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.8N 167.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.3N 169.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 157.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 232032
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

A large area of thunderstorm activity continues in the northern
semicircle of Moke, though the southern side of the system remains
mostly exposed. Visible satellite imagery indicates the center is on
the southwestern edge of the deep convection, reflective of the
southerly shear. While Dvorak intensity estimates have recently
increased, recent scatterometer data is actually lower than
earlier, showing only a small area of winds above 30 kt. The
initial intensity is set to 35 kt assuming some undersampling
knowing the bias of that instrument.

Moke should move through a tough environment during the next several
days, with lots of mid-level dry air and moderate shear in its path.
These conditions should suppress the influences of the warm
sea-surface temperatures, and Moke will likely only produce
temporary bursts of deep convection early this week. Shear is
still forecast to increase in a day or two, and the storm is
expected to weaken into a tropical depression and/or remnant low
around that time. The model trend of an earlier dissipation
continues, so the time of tropical depression and remnant low
status has been moved up 12-24 h, with a faster weakening than the
last advisory.

Moke is moving westward at about 13 kt. A strong low- to mid-level
ridge should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward for the
next several days, keeping Moke well south of the main Hawaiian
Islands. Similar to the last forecast, the model guidance has
shifted a bit to the south, and the NHC track is moved in that
direction. Moke is still expected to pass close enough to the
Hawaiian Islands to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy
rainfall across portions of the islands during the next day or two.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke is gradually
increasing over the Big Island of Hawaii today. Rain will then
spread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.2N 156.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.4N 158.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.7N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 16.2N 163.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.8N 166.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 26/0600Z 17.4N 168.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 232032
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 23 2026

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY OVER THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII TODAY AND TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 156.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 156.3 WEST. MOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TODAY, THEN WELL SOUTH OF THE SMALLER
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MOKE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LOSE STRENGTH AND COULD BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA43 PHFO.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

RAINFALL: THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON EASTERN
MAUI. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY
IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY
LALA.

ACROSS WESTERN MAUI AND THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS, MOISTURE DRAWN
NORTHWARD FROM MOKE MAY BRING UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 232031
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 156.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 0SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 156.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 155.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.4N 158.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.7N 160.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.2N 163.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.8N 166.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N 168.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 156.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 231621

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.08.2026

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 113.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2026 0 16.2N 113.9W 1004 35
0000UTC 24.08.2026 12 18.0N 115.6W 1002 36
1200UTC 24.08.2026 24 19.1N 117.7W 1001 41
0000UTC 25.08.2026 36 20.5N 120.8W 1001 39
1200UTC 25.08.2026 48 21.8N 122.9W 1003 34
0000UTC 26.08.2026 60 22.3N 124.8W 1003 28
1200UTC 26.08.2026 72 23.0N 126.7W 1005 22
0000UTC 27.08.2026 84 23.7N 128.0W 1006 22
1200UTC 27.08.2026 96 24.9N 129.1W 1008 20
0000UTC 28.08.2026 108 25.6N 130.0W 1009 21
1200UTC 28.08.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LALA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 173.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2026 0 32.0N 173.8W 986 43
0000UTC 24.08.2026 12 32.8N 174.8W 989 45
1200UTC 24.08.2026 24 33.1N 175.1W 991 42
0000UTC 25.08.2026 36 34.0N 175.5W 993 40
1200UTC 25.08.2026 48 34.8N 176.5W 993 39
0000UTC 26.08.2026 60 35.3N 177.5W 996 37
1200UTC 26.08.2026 72 35.9N 178.2W 999 39
0000UTC 27.08.2026 84 36.8N 178.7W 1000 38
1200UTC 27.08.2026 96 37.7N 179.8W 1002 35
0000UTC 28.08.2026 108 38.7N 179.2E 1005 31
1200UTC 28.08.2026 120 40.3N 178.3E 1005 32
0000UTC 29.08.2026 132 42.2N 177.2E 1005 34
1200UTC 29.08.2026 144 44.2N 175.9E 1009 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 156 47.2N 174.8E 1013 33
1200UTC 30.08.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 154.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2026 0 15.4N 154.4W 1006 31
0000UTC 24.08.2026 12 14.8N 157.7W 1007 30
1200UTC 24.08.2026 24 14.7N 160.0W 1007 24
0000UTC 25.08.2026 36 15.4N 162.4W 1008 23
1200UTC 25.08.2026 48 15.7N 165.1W 1008 23
0000UTC 26.08.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 11.5N 30.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.08.2026 72 11.5N 30.4W 1009 29
0000UTC 27.08.2026 84 12.6N 33.3W 1008 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 96 12.6N 37.3W 1007 32
0000UTC 28.08.2026 108 13.6N 41.5W 1008 34
1200UTC 28.08.2026 120 14.7N 46.4W 1010 34
0000UTC 29.08.2026 132 15.3N 51.6W 1010 33
1200UTC 29.08.2026 144 16.5N 56.2W 1011 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 156 17.2N 60.6W 1010 30
1200UTC 30.08.2026 168 18.5N 64.2W 1010 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.1N 117.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2026 108 11.1N 117.1W 1003 26
1200UTC 28.08.2026 120 10.8N 118.3W 1002 30
0000UTC 29.08.2026 132 13.0N 121.1W 1002 34
1200UTC 29.08.2026 144 13.4N 122.6W 1001 37
0000UTC 30.08.2026 156 14.3N 125.6W 998 40
1200UTC 30.08.2026 168 15.3N 127.4W 995 43

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.8N 139.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.08.2026 108 13.8N 139.8W 1004 25
1200UTC 28.08.2026 120 14.9N 140.8W 1003 29
0000UTC 29.08.2026 132 15.2N 141.3W 1002 26
1200UTC 29.08.2026 144 15.6N 143.0W 1003 27
0000UTC 30.08.2026 156 16.6N 144.9W 1004 29
1200UTC 30.08.2026 168 17.1N 146.9W 1005 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.1N 106.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2026 144 10.1N 106.8W 1007 24
0000UTC 30.08.2026 156 9.8N 109.8W 1005 27
1200UTC 30.08.2026 168 10.0N 112.2W 1005 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 10.6N 154.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.08.2026 156 10.9N 154.3W 1005 24
1200UTC 30.08.2026 168 11.6N 154.4W 1005 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231621


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 231444
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

Moke continues to pulse some convection in the northern semicircle,
though much of the southern portion of the storm is exposed due to
persistent shear. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt given
little change in the overall organization of the cyclone during the
past several hours. This is also in agreement with earlier
aircraft data and close to recent Dvorak estimates.

The storm is expected to move through a challenging environment
during the next several days, with plentiful mid-level dry air and
moderate shear in its path. These conditions will likely beat out
the warm sea-surface temperatures, and Moke should struggle to
produce sustained deep convection in this regime. Shear is
forecast to increase in 2-3 days, and the storm is expected to
weaken into a tropical depression or remnant low around that time.
The new forecast is a bit lower than the last one late in the
period and shows an earlier transition to a post-tropical cyclone.
It should be mentioned that more models are now showing the system
opening up into a trough of low pressure even earlier than shown
below due to the harsh environment and Moke's forward speed.

Moke is moving westward at about 13 kt, wobbling a bit as
convective bursts briefly pull the system north of due west. A
general west-northwestward motion is anticipated during the next
several days as a strong low- to mid-level ridge remains to the
north of the cyclone. This track should bring the center of Moke a
couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island today and then well
south of the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands thereafter. The
model guidance is a bit south of the last forecast, and the NHC
track is moved in that direction. Despite the center of Moke
remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone is expected to
pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy
rainfall across portions of the islands during the next couple of
days.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to
impact the Big Island of Hawaii today. Rain will then spread
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 15.2N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.3N 157.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.6N 159.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.0N 162.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.7N 164.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.5N 167.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.4N 170.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 231443
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SUN AUG 23 2026

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 155.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.0 WEST. MOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON SUNDAY, THEN WELL SOUTH OF THE SMALLER
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. MOKE IS FORECAST TO LOSE SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY MIDWEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES)
BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.


// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 231443
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 155.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 0SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 155.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 154.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 157.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.6N 159.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.0N 162.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.7N 164.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 167.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.4N 170.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 155.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 230843
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026

Moke's overall organization has changed little during the past
several hours. Persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry
mid-level air have eroded much of the convection that was present
earlier, leaving the low-level circulation exposed. Convective
coverage remains limited, aside from occasional bursts of deep
convection near and north of the center. Recent satellite-derived
wind data showed peak winds of around 40 kt north of the
circulation, while recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 46 kt in
the northeastern quadrant. These data, along with the overall
satellite presentation, support maintaining the initial intensity at
40 kt for this advisory.

Moke continues to move west-northwestward, with an initial motion of
280/10 kt. A general west-northwestward motion is expected to
continue during the next several days as a strong low- to mid-level
ridge remains to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring
the center of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island
on Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands
thereafter. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the
NHC forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. Despite the
center of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone
is expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds
and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next
couple of days.

Moke has likely peaked in intensity over the past 24 h. Although
vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease somewhat during the next
day, an increasingly dry and stable surrounding environment should
limit any chances for additional strengthening and likely cause Moke
to begin a steady weakening trend on Sunday. Thereafter, increasing
vertical wind shear and continued entrainment of dry air should
cause Moke to weaken further through early next week. By around 96
h, both the GFS and ECMWF depict Moke becoming largely devoid of
deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate into a remnant low
by Wednesday, then dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to
impact the Big Island of Hawaii early Sunday morning. Rain will then
spread westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.2N 153.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.4N 155.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.8N 158.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 16.3N 160.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 17.0N 163.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 17.6N 165.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 18.0N 168.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 19.1N 173.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 230842
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 22 2026

...MOKE HOLDING STEADY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 153.5W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 153.5 WEST. MOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON SUNDAY, THEN WELL SOUTH OF THE SMALLER
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES) BASED ON
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA43 PHFO.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

RAINFALL: THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON EASTERN
MAUI. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY
IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY
LALA.

ACROSS WESTERN MAUI AND THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS, MOISTURE DRAWN
NORTHWARD FROM MOKE MAY BRING UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 230239
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 11
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Aug 22 2026

Moke has weakened slightly during the past several hours. The
persistent deep convection that had been located over and north of
the circulation overnight and through the morning hours has largely
collapsed, with cloud tops warming noticeably. This deterioration
appears to be due, at least in part, to persistent southwesterly
vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. Peak 700-mb flight-level
winds from the reconnaissance aircraft have been around 43 kt, while
a UAS measured peak winds of about 38 kt while sampling near the
surface in the northeast quadrant. These data, along with the
deteriorating satellite presentation, support lowering the initial
intensity to 40 kt for this advisory.

Moke continues to move west-northwestward, with an initial motion of
280/12 kt. A general west-northwestward motion is expected to
continue during the next several days as a low- to mid-level ridge
strengthens to the north of the cyclone. This track should bring the
center of Moke a couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island on
Sunday and then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands
thereafter. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the
NHC forecast is very similar to the previous forecast. Despite the
center of Moke remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone
is expected to pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds
and heavy rainfall across portions of the islands during the next
couple of days.

Moke appears to be near its peak intensity, if it has not already
reached it. Although vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease
somewhat during the next day, an increasingly dry and stable
surrounding environment should limit additional strengthening and
likely cause Moke to begin weakening on Sunday. Thereafter,
increasing vertical wind shear and continued entrainment of dry air
should result in a gradual weakening trend through early next week.
By around 96 h, both the GFS and ECMWF depict Moke becoming largely
devoid of deep convection, and the cyclone could degenerate into a
remnant low by Wednesday, then dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near
the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to
impact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 15.3N 152.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.6N 153.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.9N 156.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.3N 158.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.8N 161.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 17.3N 163.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 18.0N 166.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 18.9N 172.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 230237
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SAT AUG 22 2026

...MOKE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT ON
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 152.1W
ABOUT 360 MI...585 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 152.1 WEST. MOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII ON SUNDAY, THEN WELL SOUTH OF THE SMALLER MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES) BASED ON DATA
FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA43 PHFO.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

RAINFALL: MOKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON EASTERN MAUI. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
FOR THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP
TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

ACROSS WESTERN MAUI AND THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS, MOISTURE DRAWN
NORTHWARD FROM MOKE MAY BRING UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 230236
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SUN AUG 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 152.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 20SE 0SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....105NE 30SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 152.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 151.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.6N 153.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.9N 156.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 10SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.3N 158.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 161.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.3N 163.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.0N 166.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.9N 172.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 152.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 222038
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 10
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026

Moke has been generally steady state throughout the
morning. The storm is producing a concentrated area of deep
convection near the center and on its north side, and microwave
images show that banding features are fairly well organized over
the northern half of the system. However, banding features remain
quite limited south of the center, and total precipitable water
imagery shows dry air beginning to wrap into that portion of the
circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently
investigating the storm, and so far have found winds to support
maintaining the initial intensity at 45 kt. This estimate is also
in line with the latest satellite estimates.

The tropical storm continues to move to the west-northwest at about
10 kt. This general motion is expected to persist during the next
several days as a low- to mid-level ridge strengthens to the north
of the storm. This track should bring the center of Moke roughly a
couple of hundred miles to the south of the Big Island on Sunday and
then well south of the smaller main Hawaiian Islands after that.
Since Moke is expected to remain compact, and because there is high
confidence in the short term track forecast, no tropical storm
watches or warnings appear to be necessary for Hawaii. However, the
storm is expected to be close enough to produce gusty winds in
portions of the Hawaiian Islands, especially in areas of high
terrain, late tonight through early next week. In addition, most of
the associated moisture is expected to be on the north side of the
cyclone, so areas of heavy rain are forecast there during the next
few days.

Moke will likely reach its peak intensity soon, if it has not
already. The continued entrainment of stable air and an increase in
shear should cause Moke to begin weakening on Sunday, with that
trend continuing into next week. The intensity models are in good
agreement, and this forecast is fairly similar to the previous one.
Dissipation is now predicted by day 5, in agreement with most of
the physics-based and AI models that show Moke opening up into a
trough by then.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to
impact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.

3. Swells generated by the storm could produce elevated surf near
exposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands
through early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 14.9N 151.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 15.3N 152.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 15.6N 155.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.0N 157.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.5N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.0N 162.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 17.5N 165.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 18.7N 170.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 222037
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SAT AUG 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 151.1W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 151.1W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 150.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.3N 152.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.6N 155.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 157.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 160.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 162.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.5N 165.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 170.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 151.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 222037
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2026

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT ON
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 151.1W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 151.1 WEST. MOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON SUNDAY, THEN WELL SOUTH OF THE SMALLER
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA43 PHFO.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

RAINFALL: MOKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ON EASTERN
MAUI. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY
IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY
LALA.

ACROSS WESTERN MAUI AND THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS, MOISTURE DRAWN
NORTHWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM MOKE MAY BRING UP TO 1 OR 2 INCHES OF
RAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT EXPOSED
EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 221622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.08.2026

HURRICANE LALA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.3N 172.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2026 0 30.3N 172.1W 977 54
0000UTC 23.08.2026 12 31.4N 172.8W 983 49
1200UTC 23.08.2026 24 32.1N 174.1W 983 46
0000UTC 24.08.2026 36 32.5N 174.8W 987 46
1200UTC 24.08.2026 48 33.1N 175.4W 990 46
0000UTC 25.08.2026 60 33.7N 176.2W 993 43
1200UTC 25.08.2026 72 34.0N 177.2W 994 41
0000UTC 26.08.2026 84 34.4N 178.3W 997 39
1200UTC 26.08.2026 96 35.1N 179.3W 1001 40
0000UTC 27.08.2026 108 36.3N 179.7E 1003 43
1200UTC 27.08.2026 120 37.5N 178.7E 1002 41
0000UTC 28.08.2026 132 38.4N 176.9E 1005 32
1200UTC 28.08.2026 144 39.3N 175.1E 1009 30
0000UTC 29.08.2026 156 41.1N 172.1E 1012 26
1200UTC 29.08.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MOKE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 149.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.08.2026 0 14.9N 149.6W 1003 37
0000UTC 23.08.2026 12 15.2N 152.0W 1003 34
1200UTC 23.08.2026 24 15.1N 154.8W 1006 31
0000UTC 24.08.2026 36 15.0N 157.8W 1006 29
1200UTC 24.08.2026 48 14.6N 160.7W 1007 23
0000UTC 25.08.2026 60 14.7N 162.8W 1007 21
1200UTC 25.08.2026 72 14.9N 164.8W 1008 22
0000UTC 26.08.2026 84 15.6N 167.3W 1008 24
1200UTC 26.08.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.1N 116.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2026 36 17.7N 117.3W 1002 33
1200UTC 24.08.2026 48 19.0N 119.3W 1001 40
0000UTC 25.08.2026 60 20.5N 121.5W 1000 42
1200UTC 25.08.2026 72 21.6N 124.2W 1001 37
0000UTC 26.08.2026 84 22.8N 126.0W 1003 29
1200UTC 26.08.2026 96 23.4N 127.8W 1005 25
0000UTC 27.08.2026 108 24.3N 129.5W 1007 25
1200UTC 27.08.2026 120 24.9N 130.9W 1008 23
0000UTC 28.08.2026 132 25.9N 131.5W 1010 24
1200UTC 28.08.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 31.7N 60.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2026 48 31.7N 60.0W 1015 26
0000UTC 25.08.2026 60 33.8N 60.5W 1014 22
1200UTC 25.08.2026 72 36.4N 59.4W 1012 27
0000UTC 26.08.2026 84 40.5N 57.0W 1010 34
1200UTC 26.08.2026 96 45.1N 51.9W 1006 35
0000UTC 27.08.2026 108 48.7N 44.2W 1006 33
1200UTC 27.08.2026 120 49.9N 36.5W 1005 30
0000UTC 28.08.2026 132 49.4N 29.9W 1006 28
1200UTC 28.08.2026 144 48.4N 24.8W 1006 28
0000UTC 29.08.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.7N 38.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2026 120 11.7N 38.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 28.08.2026 132 13.5N 43.3W 1011 27
1200UTC 28.08.2026 144 14.1N 48.2W 1011 30
0000UTC 29.08.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.7N 139.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2026 144 14.6N 139.8W 1004 25
0000UTC 29.08.2026 156 15.4N 141.1W 1004 30
1200UTC 29.08.2026 168 16.0N 142.9W 1004 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221622


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 221433
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 9
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Aug 22 2026

Moke is gaining some strength this morning with deep convection
increasing in intensity and extent. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
have departed the storm, but during their last pass through the
center they measured a minimum pressure of 994 mb and maximum 850 mb
flight-level winds of 53 kt. These data support increasing the
initial wind speed to 45 kt for this advisory. This intensity
estimate is also in agreement with the latest JTWC Dvorak
classification and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The aircraft
data and last night's ASCAT pass also showed that the
tropical-storm-force wind radii are a little larger on the north
side of the system while the radius of maximum wind has contracted.
Nonetheless, Moke remains a compact tropical storm. The NOAA and Air
Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system
again later today.

The tropical storm is moving a little faster to the west-northwest,
or 290/10 kt. This general motion is expected to persist during the
next several days as a low- to mid-level ridge strengthens to the
north of the storm. This track should bring the center of Moke
roughly a couple of hundred miles to the south of the Big Island
late tonight and early Sunday and then well south of the smaller
main Hawaiian Islands after that. Since Moke is expected to remain
compact, and because there is high confidence in the short term
track forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings appear to be
necessary for Hawaii. However, the storm is expected to be close
enough to produce gusty winds in portions of the Hawaiian Islands,
especially in areas of high terrain, late tonight through early next
week. In addition, most of the associated moisture is expected to be
on the north side of the cyclone, so areas of heavy rain are
forecast there during the next few days.

Moke will likely strengthen a little more today while it remains in
generally conducive environmental conditions. However, the
combination of dry air entrainment and an increase in vertical wind
shear should cause the storm to gradually lose strength beginning
Sunday and continuing into next week. The intensity models are in
good agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC
forecast. In fact, most of the models show Moke dissipating toward
the end of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to
impact the Big Island of Hawaii late tonight, with rain spreading
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.

3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions through early next week for exposed east
and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 14.8N 150.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 15.2N 151.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.6N 154.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.0N 156.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.4N 158.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 16.9N 161.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 17.4N 163.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.6N 169.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 19.4N 173.1W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 221433
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SAT AUG 22 2026

...MOKE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT ON
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 150.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 150.2 WEST. MOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY, THEN WELL SOUTH
OF THE SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY,
BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEGINNING SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA43 PHFO.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

RAINFALL: MOKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ON EASTERN MAUI. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS, 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS
THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT EXPOSED
EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 221432
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 150.2W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 150.2W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 149.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.2N 151.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.6N 154.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.0N 156.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.4N 158.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 161.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.4N 163.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 169.1W
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 220848
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 8
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026

Moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the
deepest convection north of the low-level circulation center, where
convection has expanded in coverage and cloud-top temperatures have
cooled to around -85 C over the past several hours. Despite the
recent increase in convection, data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate little change in intensity, with
a central pressure of 999 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of
50 kt in the northeastern quadrant. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Moke is moving west-northwestward, or 300/7 kt. There has been
little change to the track forecast philosophy. A low- to mid-level
ridge is forecast to strengthen north of Moke during the next few
days, which should steer the cyclone west-northwestward at a
slightly faster forward speed. This motion is expected to take the
core of Moke south of the main Hawaiian Islands this weekend into
early next week. The latest track guidance remains fairly tightly
clustered, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory.
Given the expected track south of the islands and the compact nature
of the cyclone, the likelihood of tropical storm watches or warnings
for the main Hawaiian Islands remains very low. However, the
enhanced pressure gradient north of Moke, combined with moisture
associated with the cyclone interacting with the island terrain,
will likely produce gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall across
portions of the state. These impacts could be aggravated by
antecedent conditions from Lala last weekend, particularly in areas
where soils remain saturated.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so
despite the moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear currently
affecting Moke. Thereafter, dry mid-level air is expected to become
increasingly entrained into the circulation while vertical wind
shear remains unfavorable late this weekend into early next week.
These factors should cause Moke to gradually weaken as it passes
south of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and remains near the upper end of
the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact the Big
Island of Hawaii late Saturday, with rain spreading westward across
the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the
windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and
over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.

3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for
exposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.4N 149.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 15.0N 150.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.4N 152.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.8N 155.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.4N 157.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.8N 160.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.2N 162.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 18.2N 167.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 19.2N 172.3W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 220847
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2026

...MOKE HOLDING STEADY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 149.0W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 149.0 WEST. MOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND, THEN SOUTH OF THE SMALLER
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTH
OF THE SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES) BASED ON DATA
FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA43 PHFO.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

RAINFALL: MOKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ON EASTERN MAUI. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS, 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS
THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT EXPOSED
EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 220233
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 7
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Aug 21 2026

Moke has changed little in organization over the past several hours.
Moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear continues to impart a
slight northward tilt to the vortex, as indicated by Tail Doppler
Radar data, with most of the deep convection displaced north of the
low-level circulation center. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft support an initial intensity of 40 kt and
a minimum central pressure of 999 mb. Based on these observations
and the overall satellite presentation, the initial intensity is
held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Moke is moving west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt. There has been
little change to the track forecast philosophy. A low- to mid-level
ridge is forecast to strengthen north of Moke during the next few
days, which should steer the cyclone west-northwestward at a
slightly faster forward speed. This motion is expected to take the
core of Moke south of the main Hawaiian Islands this weekend into
early next week. The latest track guidance remains fairly tightly
clustered, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory.
Given the expected track south of the islands and the compact nature
of the cyclone, the likelihood of tropical storm watches or warnings
for the main Hawaiian Islands remains very low. However, the
enhanced pressure gradient north of Moke, combined with moisture
associated with the cyclone interacting with the island terrain,
will likely produce gusty winds and periods of heavy rainfall across
portions of the state. These impacts could be aggravated by
antecedent conditions from Lala last weekend, particularly in areas
where soils remain saturated.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so
while Moke remains in generally favorable environmental conditions.
Thereafter, dry mid-level air is expected to become increasingly
entrained into the circulation while vertical wind shear increases
late this weekend into early next week. These factors should cause
Moke to gradually weaken as it passes south of the Hawaiian Islands.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact the Big
Island of Hawaii late Saturday, with rain spreading westward across
the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides for the
windward and southeast Big Island, especially in steep terrain and
over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.

3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for
exposed east and south facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 14.0N 148.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.5N 149.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.2N 151.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.8N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.2N 156.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 16.6N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 17.0N 161.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 18.2N 166.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 18.6N 171.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 220231
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST FRI AUG 21 2026

...MOKE HOLDING STEADY THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 148.3W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 148.3 WEST. MOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND, THEN SOUTH OF THE SMALLER
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES) BASED ON
DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA43 PHFO.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

RAINFALL: MOKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ON EASTERN MAUI. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS, 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS
THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT EXPOSED
EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 220231
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 148.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 148.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 147.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 149.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.2N 151.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.8N 153.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.2N 156.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.6N 159.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 161.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.2N 166.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.6N 171.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 148.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 212037
TCDCP3

Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number 6
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the
depression has strengthened. Dropsonde data suggest that the
minimum pressure is around 1002 mb and the flight-level wind
information supports an initial wind speed of about 40 kt, making
the system Tropical Storm Moke. Moke is gradually becoming better
organized in satellite images, with curved bands showing improved
structure north of the center.

There has not been any significant change to the track forecast
philosophy. A low- to mid-level ridge is expected to strengthen to
the north of the storm during the next few days, and that should
cause Moke to move a little faster to the west-northwest. This
motion should cause the core of system to pass to the south of the
Hawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week. Since Moke
is also forecast to be a compact storm, no tropical storm watches
or warnings are required based on the current predictions.
However, the storm will very likely be close enough to produce some
wind, rain, and surf impacts, see the Key Messages below for
details. The NHC track forecast is again largely an update of the
previous one, and remains on the north side of the guidance
envelope.

Moke has another day or so to strengthen while it remains in
generally favorable environmental conditions. However, most of the
models show the storm entraining dry air while it moves into a
region of higher shear late this weekend and early next week. Those
environmental conditions should cause the storm to gradually weaken
beginning in about 36 hours, and it could even dissipate toward the
end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the
high end of the model guidance. Based on the environmental
conditions and model spread, there remains high confidence that Moke
will stay below hurricane strength.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Moke will begin to impact
the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain on the
Big Island.

3. Swells generated by the storm may cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for
portions of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 13.9N 147.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.5N 148.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.7N 152.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 155.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 16.4N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.8N 160.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.7N 165.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 18.5N 169.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 212036
TCMCP3

TROPICAL STORM MOKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 147.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 147.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 146.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.5N 148.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.7N 152.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 155.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.4N 158.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.8N 160.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 17.7N 165.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 169.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 147.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 212036
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHS TO TROPICAL STORM MOKE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 147.2W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MOKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 147.2 WEST. MOKE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND, THEN SOUTH OF THE
SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES) BASED ON
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL STORM MOKE CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND WMO HEADER
WTPA43 PHFO.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

RAINFALL: MOKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ON EASTERN MAUI. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS, 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE WINDWARD AND
SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS
THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH MOKE,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 211624

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.08.2026

HURRICANE LALA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.0N 171.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2026 0 27.0N 171.2W 964 72
0000UTC 22.08.2026 12 29.3N 170.7W 968 69
1200UTC 22.08.2026 24 30.3N 172.2W 968 60
0000UTC 23.08.2026 36 31.7N 173.0W 976 57
1200UTC 23.08.2026 48 32.2N 174.4W 980 49
0000UTC 24.08.2026 60 32.7N 175.1W 986 50
1200UTC 24.08.2026 72 33.5N 176.1W 990 46
0000UTC 25.08.2026 84 34.1N 176.8W 993 42
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.8N 177.9W 995 40
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 35.1N 179.0W 999 39
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 35.2N 179.9W 1003 42
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 35.9N 178.9E 1006 37
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 37.5N 177.5E 1005 40
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 38.1N 176.7E 1006 31
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 39.3N 175.9E 1007 30

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 145.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2026 0 12.9N 145.5W 1005 27
0000UTC 22.08.2026 12 14.0N 147.9W 1005 31
1200UTC 22.08.2026 24 14.4N 150.2W 1005 35
0000UTC 23.08.2026 36 14.2N 152.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 23.08.2026 48 14.2N 155.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 24.08.2026 60 14.4N 158.2W 1007 29
1200UTC 24.08.2026 72 14.6N 161.3W 1007 26
0000UTC 25.08.2026 84 14.7N 164.1W 1007 27
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 14.8N 166.5W 1007 25
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 15.6N 169.1W 1007 27
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 16.1N 171.9W 1007 25
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 16.9N 174.5W 1006 26
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 16.9N 176.9W 1006 27
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 17.1N 178.9W 1005 27
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 17.5N 179.0E 1005 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 30.5N 59.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2026 48 30.5N 59.0W 1016 23
0000UTC 24.08.2026 60 32.4N 59.5W 1016 26
1200UTC 24.08.2026 72 34.5N 60.0W 1014 29
0000UTC 25.08.2026 84 37.7N 59.5W 1011 34
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 42.6N 57.6W 1005 40
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 48.3N 52.8W 1003 37
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 16.0N 119.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.08.2026 60 16.3N 120.1W 1002 29
1200UTC 24.08.2026 72 18.0N 121.4W 1002 34
0000UTC 25.08.2026 84 19.4N 123.6W 1001 36
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 21.7N 124.6W 1003 38
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 22.2N 127.0W 1004 31
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 23.8N 127.9W 1006 24
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 25.2N 129.2W 1008 24
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 25.2N 129.8W 1009 20
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.7N 21.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2026 96 12.2N 22.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 12.9N 25.9W 1009 29
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 12.8N 29.9W 1007 31
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 12.9N 34.3W 1005 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 38.5W 1002 37
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 13.4N 42.5W 1003 37
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.5N 47.1W 1006 39

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.0N 62.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2026 108 27.0N 62.4W 1014 26
1200UTC 26.08.2026 120 29.0N 62.5W 1012 29
0000UTC 27.08.2026 132 30.8N 62.4W 1011 28
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 32.3N 62.1W 1010 30
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 34.2N 60.9W 1011 32
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 36.1N 59.6W 1010 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 9.7N 117.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.08.2026 144 9.9N 118.6W 1004 26
0000UTC 28.08.2026 156 10.6N 119.7W 1003 23
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 11.8N 122.1W 1003 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 35.4N 73.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.08.2026 168 36.7N 70.9W 1013 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211624


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 211600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C (TWO-C) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C (TWO-C) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 145.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 145.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.9N 147.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.7N 149.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.4N 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 15.9N 153.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.2N 156.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.6N 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.7N 164.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.5N 168.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 146.1W.
21AUG26. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C (TWO-C), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
671 NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 211200Z IS 1005
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 01C (LALA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


0000511700
00001


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 211459
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 5
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Aug 21 2026

Satellite and microwave imagery depicts deeper convective bands
associated Two-C north of the center. The latest subjective
intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt,
which correlates well with the objective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS, supporting around 30 kt intensities as well. Based on
these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Later
today, NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to
investigate Two-C.

The depression is maintaining a west-northwestward track of 295/9
kt, and that is expected to persist as the cyclone progresses south
of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest model guidance showcases a more
westward track through the weekend as broad ridging builds in the
Central Pacific just north of the Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC
track forecast is largely just an update of the previous one,
and a blend of the consensus models and the guidance of the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean.

The latest model and satellite trends suggest Two-C will likely
strengthen over the next 48 h, as environmental conditions remain
generally favorable. While the cyclone will experience light,
southwesterly shear during the early portion of its life cycle,
significantly warmer SSTs and a relatively moist atmosphere will
help counter any negative shear effects. However, multi-model
intensity consensus and SHIPS intensity guidance portray gradual
weakening thereafter as the cyclone should succumb to increasing
vertical wind shear and drier relative humidity values.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with the system will begin to impact
the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, with rain spreading
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

2. Although the strongest winds associated with the system are
expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds
are likely, particularly in areas within and downslope of higher
terrain on the Big Island.

3. Swells generated by the system may cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions this weekend and early next week for
portions of the Hawaiian Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 13.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.7N 149.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 151.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.9N 153.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 16.2N 156.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.6N 159.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 17.7N 164.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 168.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 211458
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST FRI AUG 21 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BRING RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 146.0W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 146.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND, THEN THE SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 211458
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 146.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 146.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 145.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.7N 149.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 151.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.9N 153.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.2N 156.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.6N 159.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 17.7N 164.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 168.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 146.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 210845
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST THU AUG 20 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 145.6W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 145.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17
KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND, THEN THE SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA43 PHFO.

RAINFALL: THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON WINDWARD MAUI. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE ISLANDS, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THS WEEKEND, AND COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 210844
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 145.6W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 145.6W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 145.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N 148.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.8N 153.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.3N 156.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.6N 158.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.3N 163.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.3N 167.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 145.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 210844
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 4
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the convective coverage associated
with Tropical Depression Two-C has changed little during the past
several hours. Much of the deep convection remains positioned north
of the low-level circulation. This steady satellite presentation,
combined with the generally unchanged intensity estimates from HFO,
JTWC, and UW-CIMSS, supports maintaining the initial intensity at 30
kt for this advisory. Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft are scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Friday.

The initial motion is estimated to be 290/9 kt, and this general
motion is expected to persist into the weekend while the cyclone
remains on the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A gradual
turn toward the west is forecast later in the weekend as the ridge
builds to the north of the system. Track guidance remains in
generally good agreement, although some cross-track spread persists
as the cyclone approaches and passes south of the Hawaiian Islands
this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC forecast is
slightly south of the previous forecast, and lies closer to the
consensus and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening
during the next few days as the depression approaches the Hawaiian
Islands. The cyclone is forecast to stay over warm waters and within
a moist environment with light to moderate vertical wind shear. The
NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper end of the intensity
guidance and shows a gradual weakening trend beginning by early next
week due to drier mid-level air and increasing vertical wind shear.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Two-C is expected to strengthen while it
moves west-northwestward toward the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands
over the next couple of days.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with the tropical depression will
begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night,
spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands
Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas
that were affected recently by Lala.

3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands
regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Residents
should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that
they have their preparedness plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 145.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 14.3N 148.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.1N 150.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 15.8N 153.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 16.3N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 16.6N 158.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.3N 163.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 18.3N 167.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 210420

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.08.2026

HURRICANE LALA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 172.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2026 0 25.1N 172.2W 971 69
1200UTC 21.08.2026 12 27.0N 171.2W 961 78
0000UTC 22.08.2026 24 29.2N 170.7W 968 69
1200UTC 22.08.2026 36 30.5N 172.0W 970 60
0000UTC 23.08.2026 48 31.5N 172.4W 975 59
1200UTC 23.08.2026 60 32.5N 173.8W 980 51
0000UTC 24.08.2026 72 32.7N 174.7W 985 48
1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 33.6N 175.3W 988 49
0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.8N 176.5W 992 44
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 35.6N 177.9W 994 40
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 36.6N 178.4W 998 38
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 38.4N 179.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 40.3N 178.6E 996 51
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 41.1N 177.3E 999 42
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 41.9N 176.2E 1007 29

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02C ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 144.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP022026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2026 0 12.5N 144.0W 1007 25
1200UTC 21.08.2026 12 12.6N 146.7W 1006 27
0000UTC 22.08.2026 24 12.8N 148.2W 1006 27
1200UTC 22.08.2026 36 13.2N 150.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 23.08.2026 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 29.9N 58.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.08.2026 60 30.4N 59.0W 1015 25
0000UTC 24.08.2026 72 31.2N 59.5W 1015 28
1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 32.6N 60.2W 1013 33
0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 34.9N 59.6W 1012 30
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 37.7N 58.5W 1007 36
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 41.7N 55.6W 1003 44
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 46.8N 50.7W 1000 43
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 51.0N 42.4W 999 40
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 53.5N 34.1W 996 33
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 POST-TROPICAL

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.4N 121.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.08.2026 84 16.9N 121.2W 1003 34
0000UTC 25.08.2026 96 18.1N 123.8W 1002 40
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 19.6N 125.3W 1003 40
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 20.8N 127.0W 1003 39
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 22.1N 128.5W 1004 33
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 22.7N 130.5W 1006 32
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 23.1N 131.9W 1008 27
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 24.0N 133.9W 1009 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.4N 20.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.08.2026 108 12.9N 22.2W 1007 30
0000UTC 26.08.2026 120 13.7N 26.0W 1008 33
1200UTC 26.08.2026 132 13.1N 30.9W 1003 37
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 12.8N 34.7W 1002 36
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 13.0N 38.3W 1002 36
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 14.0N 42.6W 1005 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.8N 172.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2026 144 14.9N 173.6W 1006 25
1200UTC 27.08.2026 156 15.2N 175.8W 1005 24
0000UTC 28.08.2026 168 15.1N 177.5W 1004 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 210420


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 210236
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 3
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Aug 20 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with
Tropical Depression Two-C has weakened slightly during the past
several hours, with most of the deep convection positioned over the
western semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from JTWC and HFO remain T2.0/30 kt and are generally consistent
with the objective intensity estimates. Therefore, the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt. Both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft are scheduled to investigate the cyclone on Friday.

The initial motion is estimated to be 290/12 kt, and this general
motion is expected to persist into the weekend while the cyclone
remains on the southern side of the subtropical ridge. A gradual
turn toward the west is forecast later in the weekend as the ridge
builds to the north of the system. Track guidance remains in
generally good agreement, although some cross-track spread persists
as the cyclone approaches and passes south of the Hawaiian Islands
this weekend and into early next week. The updated NHC forecast
reflects a blend of the previous forecast, ECMWF, and the GFS
solutions, and generally lies near the northern side of the
guidance envelope.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening
during the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to remain over
warm waters and within an adequately moist environment while
vertical wind shear remains relatively weak. These conditions should
support steady intensification as the system approaches the vicinity
of the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond about 72 h, increasing shear and a
progressively drier surrounding environment should induce a
weakening trend by early next week as it passes south of the
Hawaiian Islands. The NHC intensity forecast shows the system
becoming a strong tropical storm this weekend, followed by gradual
weakening, and remains near the upper end of the intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves
west-northwestward toward the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands over
the next couple of days.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two will begin
to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday night, spreading
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in steep terrain and over areas that were
affected recently by Lala.

3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands
regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Watches
may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands by Friday and
residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and
ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 12.9N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 13.3N 146.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 14.9N 149.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.9N 151.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 16.6N 154.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.9N 157.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 17.6N 161.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 18.6N 166.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Evans


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 210234
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 145.0W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 145.0W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 144.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.3N 146.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N 147.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.9N 149.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 151.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.6N 154.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.9N 157.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 17.6N 161.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 166.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 145.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS=


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 210234
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST THU AUG 20 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 145.0W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 145.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22
KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER,
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII THIS WEEKEND, THEN THE SMALLER MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP3 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA43 PHFO.

RAINFALL: THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ON EASTERN MAUI. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE ISLANDS, 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP3.SHTML?RAINQPF.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THS WEEKEND, AND COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/EVANS=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 202039
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026

The convection around Tropical Depression Two-C has continued to
show some improvements since the last advisory, and the low-level
circulation is a little better defined, as evident in satellite
data. The objective Dvorak estimates range between 22-33 kt and the
subjective estimates from JTWC and HFO are 1.5/25 kt and 2.0/30 kt,
respectively. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity
remains 30 kt. Both NOAA and Air Force aircraft reconnaissance
will investigate the cyclone tomorrow.

The system appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt,
and that motion is expected to persist for the next 48 hours or so
until the ridge north of it strengthens. This steering flow is
expected to force the system to turn more toward the west in a few
days. The current NHC track lies on the northern side of the
guidance envelope, but there is some uncertainty in the details in
regards to the strength of the ridge and a nearby trough. It is
important to note that the NHC track error at 72 h is about 75 n mi,
and interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island,
should monitor the progress of this system. The latest NHC track is
slightly south of the previous one, but there is not much else in
the way of change.

The cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment for
the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual
strengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one
hurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond
that time, wind shear will likely start to increase and dry air will
also begin to to intrude into the cyclone. The current NHC intensity
forecast calls for a peak wind speed of 55 kt this weekend, with
gradual weakening occuring after that. This forecast lies is a
little lower than the previous one but remains near the high end of
the model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves
west-northwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands late this week and
this weekend.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-C is
expected to begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday
night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian
Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain
and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands
regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Watches
may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or
Friday and residents there should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 12.5N 143.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.9N 145.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 14.4N 148.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 15.2N 150.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 15.9N 152.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 16.4N 154.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 17.2N 159.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 18.3N 163.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA33 PHFO 202039
TCPCP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST THU AUG 20 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 143.8W
ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 143.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H)
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C CAN BE FOUND IN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP3 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA43 PHFO.

RAINFALL: THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
STEEP TERRAIN AND OVER AREAS THAT WERE AFFECTED RECENTLY BY LALA.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THS WEEKEND, AND COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 202038
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 143.8W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 143.8W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 143.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.9N 145.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.4N 148.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 150.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 152.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.4N 154.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 17.2N 159.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.3N 163.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 143.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ=


Original Message :

WTPA43 PHFO 201455
TCDCP3

Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026

The system that NHC has been monitoring (invest 90E) over the
central Pacific now has developed a sufficient amount of convective
organization that has been steadily increasing over the last
several hours. In addition, the low-level circulation has been
getting better defined, as evident in satellite data, therefore
the system now meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone. The
ASCAT pass from last night shows that the circulation is located
near the eastern edge of the convection and generally supports an
initial intensity of about 30 kt.

The system appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt,
and that motion is expected to persist for the next 48 hours or so
until the ridge north of it strengthens. This steering flow is
expected to force the system to turn more toward the west in a few
days. The current NHC track lies on the northern side of the
guidance envelope, but there is some uncertainty in the details in
regards to the strength of the ridge and a nearby trough. It is
important to note that the NHC track error at 72 h is about 75 n mi,
and interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island,
should monitor the progress of this system.

The cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment
for the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual
strengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one
hurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond
that time, wind shear will likely start to increase and dry air will
also begin to to intrude into the cyclone. The current NHC intensity
forecast calls for a peak wind speed of 60 kt this weekend, with
gradual weakening occuring after that. This forecast lies near the
high end of the model guidance.


Key Messages:

1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves
west-northwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands late this week and
this weekend. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location
and magnitude of impacts, residents should closely monitor the
latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-C is
expected to begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday
night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian
Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain
and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.

3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian
Islands regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system
Watches may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands
tonight or Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 11.9N 143.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 12.4N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 13.1N 145.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.0N 147.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.0N 149.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 15.6N 151.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.3N 153.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 17.2N 158.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.3N 163.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA23 PHFO 201454
TCMCP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 143.1W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 143.1W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 142.6W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.4N 144.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.1N 145.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.0N 147.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.0N 149.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 151.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.3N 153.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 17.2N 158.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.3N 163.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 143.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI=