Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ISELLE-26 Off-shore from 23 Aug 2026 15:00 UTC to 21:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ISELLE-26

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

23/08 20:34 WTPZ34KNHC232032

23/08 20:33 WTPZ44KNHC232032

23/08 20:32 WTPZ24KNHC232031

23/08 15:42 WTPN33PHNC231600

23/08 14:48 WTPZ34KNHC231446

23/08 14:47 WTPZ44KNHC231446

23/08 14:46 WTPZ24KNHC231445

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 232032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092026
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...ISELLE STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 115.1W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 115.1 West. Iselle is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Monday, followed by a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
day or two, and Iselle could become a hurricane Monday night or
early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Iselle will affect the west coast of the
Baja California Peninsula beginning Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 232032
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092026
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 23 2026

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER ISELLE SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN, WITH A
LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE OF ISELLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. A RECENT
23/1748Z ASCAT-C OVERPASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED, BUT WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION, WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) OF ABOUT
70 NAUTICAL MILES, WITH GALES IN THE NE, SE AND SW QUADRANTS. THERE
ARE SEVERAL 40-45 KT VECTORS ON THE SOUTH SIDE, AND THE INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS ABOVE THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB, WHICH IS T2.5/35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR 315 DEGREES AT 14
KT. A CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WHILE
ISELLE IS STEERED BY RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE, A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
WELL TO THE RIGHT (OR NORTHEAST) OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48
H, MAINLY DUE TO THE FARTHER NORTH INITIAL POSITION AND IS NEARLY ON
TOP OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE LATEST HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS (HCCA) MODEL AND THE
GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDMI). THERE IS STILL A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF SPREAD
IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

ISELLE WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, BUT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO THE
15-20 KT RANGE BY TUESDAY OR SOONER. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 36 H. THEREAFTER, ISELLE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT
OR WEDNESDAY. ONLY SMALL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE MIDDLE AND HIGH END OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY BECAUSE THE RMW IS STILL
LARGE, AND THE SYSTEM HAS AT MOST 36-48 H LEFT TO STRENGTHEN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 16.9N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 18.2N 116.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 19.6N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 20.8N 119.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 21.4N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 21.9N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 22.4N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 23.3N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 24.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 232031
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092026
2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 115.1W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 110SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 45SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 115.1W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.2N 116.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.6N 117.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.8N 119.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.4N 121.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 21.9N 122.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.4N 124.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 23.3N 128.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 24.2N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 09E (ISELLE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221251ZAUG2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09E (ISELLE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 113.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 113.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.5N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 17.9N 117.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.3N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.5N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.4N 121.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.0N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.0N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.9N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 114.3W. 23AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 09E
(ISELLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1084 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 231200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232200Z, 240400Z,
241000Z AND 241600Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 221300).//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 231446
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092026
800 AM MST Sun Aug 23 2026

...TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 114.2W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 114.2 West. Iselle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northwestward motion is expected through Monday, followed by a
gradual turn back toward the west-northwest on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Iselle could become a hurricane late Monday or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Iselle will affect the west coast of the
Baja California Peninsula beginning Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 231446
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092026
800 AM MST SUN AUG 23 2026

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS (EP92) HAS HAD GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SUFFICIENTLY
WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 12 H OR SO. THE ASCAT-C PASS
FROM 23/0517Z SHOWED WINDS OF 40 KT, AND THAT THE SYSTEM DID NOT YET
HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, ALTHOUGH IT WAS CLOSER THAN IT WAS
ON THE PREVIOUS PASS FROM 12 H EARLIER. AN OSCAT PASS A COUPLE
HOURS LATER AROUND 23/0716Z SUGGESTED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
WAS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER-DEFINED. SINCE THAT TIME, SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND THE SYSTEM VERY LIKELY HAS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION BY NOW. THUS, EP92 IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
ISELLE, AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KT BASED ON THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA.

THERE HAVE BEEN NO OTHER RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES, AND THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION IS LOW. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO
BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WHILE ISELLE IS STEERED BY RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE, A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS
(HCCA) MODEL AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDMI), WHICH IS ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE IS A HEALTHY AMOUNT
OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

ISELLE WILL BE TRAVELING OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 H AS
THE CYCLONE ATTEMPTS TO CONSOLIDATE AND FORM A CORE. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ISELLE REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, A MODEST INCREASE IN
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG ISELLE'S PATH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE
HURRICANE REGIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 15.3N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 16.5N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 17.9N 117.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 19.3N 118.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 20.5N 120.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 22.0N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 23.0N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 23.9N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 231445
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092026
1500 UTC SUN AUG 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 114.2W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 90SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 114.2W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 115.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.9N 117.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.3N 118.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.5N 120.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.0N 123.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 23.0N 127.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 23.9N 130.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 114.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.