Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DOLLY-26 in Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla on 27 Aug 2026 15:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for DOLLY-26

in Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

27/08 14:52 WTNT44KNHC271449

27/08 14:49 WTNT34KNHC271447

27/08 14:48 WTNT24KNHC271446

Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 271449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Dolly Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure (Invest
AL96) has developed a well-defined center this morning along with
organized deep convection. There is a bit of northwesterly shear,
causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located on the
southern side of the circulation largely away from the center.
Scatterometer data shows that the maximum winds are near 35 kt in
the northeastern quadrant, along with a Dvorak T2.5/35 kt
classification from TAFB, so advisories are initiated on Tropical
Storm Dolly.

The initial motion estimate is 275/21 kt. Dolly should continue
moving quickly westward for the next couple of days under a strong
ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. Model guidance
is tightly packed on a track towards the Leeward Islands, and
the NHC forecast is on the faster and southward side of the
guidance envelope. This forecast is consistent with the NOAA HCCA
model and the well-known bias for models to be too slow and
poleward in the tropical Atlantic.

The environment around Dolly should become unfavorable for
strengthening by tomorrow with increasing southwesterly shear due
to a central Atlantic upper-level trough, fast forward motion and
dry air aloft. Until then, some slight intensification is
possible, consistent with the model consensus. All of our guidance
is showing Dolly opening up into a strong tropical wave before it
reaches the Leeward Islands, which is our expectation as well, and
post-tropical positions are provided given the risk of gusty winds
and heavy rainfall.

The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely
coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North
Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists
established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV
Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the
1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although Dolly is forecast to no longer be a tropical cyclone
when it passes near the Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall could begin
to affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday and the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This
heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of
higher terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 13.6N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 13.7N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 14.4N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 15.1N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 15.9N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/1200Z 17.7N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 271447
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dolly Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 27 2026

...TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 38.7W
ABOUT 1555 MI...2505 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Dolly.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 38.7 West. Dolly is
moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this
weekend.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength
is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to
degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward
Islands.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Dolly can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Heavy rain from this system could begin to affect the
Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may
produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 271446
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042026
1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 38.7W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 38.7W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 37.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 13.7N 42.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.4N 46.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.1N 51.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.9N 55.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.7N 59.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.7N 63.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 38.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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