Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore on 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26

Off-shore

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

27/08 20:46 WTPZ41KNHC272046

27/08 20:46 WTPZ31KNHC272044

27/08 20:44 WTPZ21KNHC272044

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 272046
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
200 PM MST THU AUG 27 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INVEST
EP93) HAS DEVELOPED A MORE ORGANIZED CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH BANDED
CONVECTION AROUND ITS CENTER. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS FROM TAFB WAS 2.5/2.5, WHICH REFLECTS THIS ORGANIZATION.
SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM AROUND 1600 UTC ALSO SHOWED A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED, BUT CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH MAX WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KT. BASED ON THIS, ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM
KARINA, WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE WAS SET AT 295/11 KT. KARINA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
STAYING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL DRIVE KARINA'S NORTHWESTWARD MOTION,
BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT KARINA'S TRACK MORE WESTWARD AROUND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 H ON KARINA'S
TRACK, THEN SHOW MORE SPREAD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
RIDGE'S INFLUENCE, THUS HINDERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS KARINA MOVES OVER WARM SSTS IN A
MOISTURE-RICH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODELS DEPICT A
STEADY INTENSIFICATION PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 72 H, BEFORE MOVING INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER SSTS AND REDUCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
SHIPS-RII CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NEARLY 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
A 55 KT INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, INDICATING THAT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AT A FASTER RATE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE
STORM CURRENTLY LACKS A TIGHT INNER CORE, THE INITIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE, AND HAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED
THE HCCA FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 11.1N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 12.2N 113.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 13.5N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 14.9N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 16.2N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 17.4N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 18.1N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 18.6N 124.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 19.4N 127.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 272044
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
200 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

...TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORMS WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 111.9W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 111.9 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is anticipated, and Karina is forecast to become a
hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin to
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Zelinsky

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 272044
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 240SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.2N 113.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 40SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...230NE 70SE 30SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...220NE 90SE 40SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.4N 119.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...190NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 18.6N 124.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 19.4N 127.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

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