Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-26 Off-shore from 27 Aug 2026 21:00 UTC to 07 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 070245
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Advisory Number 43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

...KARINA IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...STILL PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 146.2W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina
was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 146.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
(9 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over
the next day or two, along with an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and the system is
forecast to dissipate in a day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
// END PART 01 //

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 23.0N 145.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 145.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.2N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.7N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 23.1N 146.3W. 07SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 11E
(KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 561 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 998
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET.
REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 070246
TCDCP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karina Discussion Number 43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

Karina lost all of its organized deep convection late last night,
and it has been devoid of thunderstorm activity throughout the day.
Although a small patch of convection has formed about 90 n mi
northeast of the center, this area is quite limited and not well
organized. Therefore, Karina no longer meets the definition of a
tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory on this system by
NHC. However, the cyclone is still producing gale-force winds north
of the center, and the initial wind speed is estimated to be around
40 kt based on earlier ASCAT data and the latest satellite intensity
estimates.

Strong shear, dry air, and cool waters should cause the
post-tropical cyclone to continue to weaken while it moves
west-northwestward in the low-level flow. All of the reliable
models show the low degenerating into a trough Monday night as
it approaches Hurricane Lowell to its west.

For additional information on this system please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 23.1N 146.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 07/1200Z 23.2N 147.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/0000Z 23.7N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 070244
TCMCP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2026

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 146.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 80SE 0SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 90SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 146.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 145.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.2N 147.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 150.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 146.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER
FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 042
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 145.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 145.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.0N 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.3N 148.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.9N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 145.6W. 06SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 11E
(KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 589 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z,
071600Z AND 072200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 062031
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL GALE BY TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 145.5W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 145.5 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next day or two,
along with an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Karina is forecast to
become a post-tropical gale by late tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 062031
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

Karina continues to lack deep convection as it moves through a dry
airmass. The latest subjective intensity estimates are a consensus
35 kt from PHFO and JTWC, while objective intensity estimates range
from 32-41 kt. The initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt for this
advisory.

Karina has slowed down and turned west-northwestward with an initial
motion estimate of 300/5 kt. A westward to west-northwestward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next
day or so as Karina gets pulled westward by a mid-level low to its
west and ridging builds in to the north of Karina. The track
forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the HCCA and
the GDMI.

Karina will continue moving through a very dry airmass, over the
next day or two. This, combined with a continuation of moderate
west-southwesterly wind shear and sea-surface temperatures in the
25-26C range should lead to continued weakening, and Karina is
unlikely to redevelop any significant deep convection. Therefore,
the NHC forecast now calls for Karina to become post-tropical within
the next 12 h. The cyclone is likely to hold onto gale-force winds
for another 24-30 h as it gradually spins down. By Tuesday, the low
should dissipate when it gets sheared apart by the combination of a
powerful mid- to upper-level trough and outflow from Hurricane
Lowell.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.9N 145.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.0N 146.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 07/1800Z 23.3N 148.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 08/0600Z 23.9N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 062030
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 145.5W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 80SE 60SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 145.5W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 145.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 146.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.3N 148.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.9N 151.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 145.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 041
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 22.6N 144.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 144.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.0N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.2N 147.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.5N 150.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.2N 152.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 145.1W. 06SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 11E
(KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 607 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z,
071000Z AND 071600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 061448
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

Karina's convection has decreased significantly in coverage and
intensity. Deep convection is nearly completely gone, but moderate
convection with cloud tops between -10C and -30C remain on Karina's
north side. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates range from 35-45 kt. However, out of respect for the
large area of 50-53 kt wind vectors on the two ASCAT passes from
around 07Z, the intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory.

Moderate west-southwesterly shear, sea-surface temperatures in the
25-26C range and the dry air mass Karina is embedded in will cause
the cyclone to continue weakening. It is possible that the dry
airmass could prevent any deep convection from re-forming. The GFS
and ECMWF models both agree that Karina should lose its convection
in 12 to 24 h. Although the NHC forecast for Karina becoming
post-tropical has moved up to 24 h, the gales should continue a bit
longer. The low is expected to dissipate by hour 60 as it gets
sheared apart by the combination of a powerful mid- to upper-level
trough and outflow from Hurricane Lowell.

Karina's initial motion is northwestward, or 305 degrees at 6 kt. A
turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by tonight as
Karina gets pulled westward by a mid-level low to its west and
ridging builds in to the north of Karina. The track forecast is
similar to the previous one and is close to the HCCA and the GDMI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.7N 145.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 23.0N 146.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 23.2N 147.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 08/0000Z 23.5N 150.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 08/1200Z 24.2N 152.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 061447
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 145.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 90SE 70SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 120SE 210SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 145.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 144.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 146.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.2N 147.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.5N 150.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.2N 152.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 145.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 061447
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SUN SEP 06 2026

...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL GALE TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 145.0W
ABOUT 680 MI...1100 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 145.0 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND KARINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL GALE BY LATE TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES (295 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 040
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 11E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 22.2N 143.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 143.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.8N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.0N 146.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.3N 148.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.7N 151.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.1N 153.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 144.3W. 06SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 11E
(KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z,
070400Z AND 071000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 060842
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

The environment around Karina continues to hinder the cyclone, based
on the data from the satellite imagery via southerly vertical wind
shear, dry air, and cool sea-surface temperatures. The low-level
center remains exposed and what is left of the convection is still
limited to the north side of the storm. The subjective Dvorak fixes
from JTWC and HFO give T2.5/35 kt and the objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 27-49 kt. However ASCAT
fixes from Metop-B and Metop-C have shown that there is a cluster of
50 kt winds within the northwestern portion of the storm. Therefore,
the intensity for this advisory has been held at 50 kt.

Karina is expected to continue to weaken as the hostile conditions
are not expected to abate. The cyclone should dissipate within the
next couple of days, as both the GFS and ECMWF simulate satellite
images show all of the deep convection dissipating late Sunday or
early Monday. The current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to
the previous forecast.

The storm is currently moving slowly to the west-northwest at about
5 kt. A continued west to west-northwest motion with a gradual
increase in forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days
as the storm moves on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.
The track forecast is similar to the previous one with just some
small adjustments based on the HCCA and the GDMI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 22.6N 144.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.8N 145.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.0N 146.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 23.3N 148.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 08/0600Z 23.7N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1800Z 24.1N 153.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 060842
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SAT SEP 05 2026

...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 144.4W
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 144.4 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A FASTER WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND KARINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 060841
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 144.4W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 90SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 144.4W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 143.9W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.8N 145.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 146.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 10SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.3N 148.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.7N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.1N 153.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 144.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 060422

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.09.2026

HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 120.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2026 0 22.4N 120.9W 970 62
1200UTC 06.09.2026 12 23.6N 122.0W 976 52
0000UTC 07.09.2026 24 24.6N 122.6W 981 47
1200UTC 07.09.2026 36 25.3N 123.6W 988 43
0000UTC 08.09.2026 48 26.2N 125.2W 994 35
1200UTC 08.09.2026 60 26.7N 126.6W 999 31
0000UTC 09.09.2026 72 28.4N 127.3W 1001 31
1200UTC 09.09.2026 84 30.5N 128.0W 1005 29
0000UTC 10.09.2026 96 33.1N 128.6W 1010 22
1200UTC 10.09.2026 108 35.4N 129.6W 1015 18
0000UTC 11.09.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 163.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2026 0 13.6N 163.2W 933 103
1200UTC 06.09.2026 12 14.5N 164.0W 947 84
0000UTC 07.09.2026 24 15.7N 164.4W 948 85
1200UTC 07.09.2026 36 17.2N 164.1W 949 78
0000UTC 08.09.2026 48 19.4N 163.3W 947 84
1200UTC 08.09.2026 60 22.4N 162.5W 956 81
0000UTC 09.09.2026 72 24.9N 162.8W 974 60
1200UTC 09.09.2026 84 26.2N 163.5W 985 51
0000UTC 10.09.2026 96 26.6N 164.8W 992 54
1200UTC 10.09.2026 108 26.9N 166.9W 997 45
0000UTC 11.09.2026 120 27.5N 169.3W 1000 35
1200UTC 11.09.2026 132 29.0N 171.1W 1001 38
0000UTC 12.09.2026 144 32.3N 172.4W 996 51
1200UTC 12.09.2026 156 35.2N 176.5W 1000 41
0000UTC 13.09.2026 168 35.4N 179.4E 1003 32

TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 143.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2026 0 21.8N 143.7W 989 46
1200UTC 06.09.2026 12 22.4N 144.6W 993 44
0000UTC 07.09.2026 24 22.9N 145.8W 998 40
1200UTC 07.09.2026 36 23.0N 147.6W 1003 33
0000UTC 08.09.2026 48 23.4N 150.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 08.09.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 12.8N 150.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2026 156 13.0N 150.9W 1004 22
0000UTC 13.09.2026 168 13.5N 150.8W 1004 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 36.6N 61.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2026 156 36.6N 61.4W 1010 35
0000UTC 13.09.2026 168 37.4N 62.6W 1013 27

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060422

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 039
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 21.8N 143.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 143.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.4N 144.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.8N 145.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.0N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.3N 149.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.7N 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 144.0W.
06SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 652
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 993
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 060231
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Southerly vertical wind shear, dry air, and cool waters are taking a
toll on Karina. The low-level center is completely exposed, and
deep convection is limited to some bands on the north side of the
circulation. Accordingly, the satellite intensity estimates are
dropping and currently range from 35 to about 60 kt. The initial
intensity is lowered to 50 kt, and that could be a little generous.

Continued weakening is expected as the hostile environmental
conditions are not expected to abate. These factors should cause
steady weakening, and dissipation within a few days. The GFS and
ECMWF simulated satellite images show all of the deep convection
dissipating late Sunday or early Monday. The intensity forecast is a
touch lower than the previous one, and post-tropical transition has
been moved up to 36 h based on the model guidance.

The storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest at about 5 kt. A
continued west to west-northwest motion with a gradual increase in
forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days as the storm
moves on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. The track
forecast is similar to the previous one, and is based on a blend of
the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids, and the Google DeepMind ensemble
mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 22.0N 143.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.4N 144.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 22.8N 145.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 23.0N 147.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 08/0000Z 23.3N 149.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/1200Z 23.7N 152.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 060230
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SAT SEP 05 2026

...KARINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 143.9W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 143.9 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A FASTER
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND KARINA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 060230
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 143.9W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 120SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 143.9W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 143.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.4N 144.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N 145.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.0N 147.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.3N 149.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.7N 152.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 143.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 038 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 038
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 11E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 143.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 143.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.0N 144.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.5N 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 22.8N 146.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.0N 148.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.4N 151.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 143.6W. 05SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 11E
(KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 671 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 051800Z IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND 062200Z. REFER TO
HURICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 052034
TCDCP5

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Visible satellite imagery indicates that Karina's low-level
circulation has become totally decoupled from the mid- to
upper-levels. Deep convection is now limited to a shield to the
north of the cyclone. A blend of Dvorak Final-T and Current
Intensity numbers from JTWC plus decreasing objective estimates from
UW-CIMSS supported lowering the intensity estimate to 60 kt at 18Z.
Since then, further degradation of the satellite appearance of
Karina over the past few hours justify lowering the intensity
estimate to 55 kt for this advisory.

Largely because Karina has become shallow sooner than expected, the
tropical storm has also moved south of the previous forecast track.
This has necessitated another southward shift to the NHC forecast,
which is near the southern extreme of the reliable guidance
envelope. A further southward adjustment may be necessary in future
advisories. Karina is now forecast to move generally
west-northwestward to westward for the next couple of days, steered
primarily by low-level flow associated with a subtropical high
centered well north of the tropical storm. This motion will likely
continue until Karina dissipates in a few days.

Further weakening from southwesterly shear and dry air is likely.
The official forecast calls for Karina to weaken slightly faster
than previously shown, but is generally similar and lies near the
middle of the models, which are all in good agreement. Karina is
forecast to become post-tropical in 2 days, and based on current
trends, it could occur sooner than that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 21.6N 143.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.0N 144.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 22.5N 145.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 22.8N 146.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 23.0N 148.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0600Z 23.4N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 052033
TCMCP5

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 143.6W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 240SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 143.6W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 143.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 144.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 145.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.8N 146.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.0N 148.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.4N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 143.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 052033
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 05 2026

...KARINA QUICKLY WEAKENING...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 143.6W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 143.6 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND KARINA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB (29.18 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 037
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 21.5N 142.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 142.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.1N 143.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.6N 144.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.0N 145.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4N 147.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.9N 150.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 143.0W. 05SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
051200Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z. REFER
TO HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 051441
TCDCP5

Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC for Karina at
1200 UTC were still 65 kt, while the most recent DMINT and DPRINT
estimates from UW-CIMSS are 62 and 69 kt, respectively. This
is the basis for the 65 kt initial intensity, though the ragged
convective structure of Karina and other lower objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS (like a SATCON of 56 kt) over the past few
hours suggest this could be a generous estimate.

Locating the center of Karina has become somewhat difficult, but the
motion is believed to still be toward the northwest at a slightly
slower forward speed (305/7 kt). A deep-layer trough located to the
north and northeast of Karina is allowing the cyclone to move more
toward the northwest since last night, but the combination of the
cyclone weakening and becoming shallow plus a ridge building over
the north-central Pacific will likely cause Karina to turn
westward by late Sunday. Models have generally shifted southward
since yesterday, showing this turn occuring sooner than previously
forecast, so the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction.
It should be noted, however, that Karina is still expected to move
well north or northeast of the Hawaiian Islands as a weak cyclone
before it dissipates early next week.

A combination of southwesterly shear, dry air, and marginal SSTs
should cause Karina to quickly weaken during the next several days.
In fact, there are indications in satellite imagery that the low-
and mid-level center of Karina are beginning to stretch apart due
to that shear. No significant changes were made to the NHC
intensity forecast, which is near the middle of the intensity
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.7N 143.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.1N 143.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.6N 144.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.0N 145.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 23.4N 147.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.9N 150.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 051440
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SAT SEP 05 2026

...KARINA FORECAST TO QUICKLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 143.0W
ABOUT 795 MI...1275 KM ENE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 143.0 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
IS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WESTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. KARINA IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 051440
TCMCP5

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 143.0W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 90SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 143.0W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 142.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N 143.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 144.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 145.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.4N 147.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.9N 150.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 143.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 036
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 141.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 141.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.2N 142.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.9N 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.7N 144.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.2N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.6N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.1N 150.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 142.0W. 05SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND
060400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 050843
TCDCP5

Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

The satellite presentation for Karina continues to look less
impressive, as most of the convection on the southern side of the
hurricane has dissipated. The combination of wind shear, dry
air, and cooler sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to take
their toll on the cyclone. The subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from both JTWC and HFO gave a T4.0/65 kt, and the
UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates are in the range
of 59-65 kt. Therefore, the intensity for Karina has been brought
down to 65 kt for this advisory.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina is steering the
hurricane toward the northwest (305/8 kt). A mid- to upper-level
trough is expected to weaken the ridge over the next couple of
days, which should allow the cyclone to gain some latitude as it
moves toward the west-northwest or northwest. Then, a more
westward motion is forecast before the system is absorbed well to
the north of the Hawaiian Islands by the outer circulation of
Hurricane Lowell. The current NHC forecast track is very similar to
the previous forecast track with just a few minor adjustments to the
track.

Karina is expected to gradually weaken over the next few days as
the cyclone moves over marginal SSTs and encounters increasing
southwesterly shear and more dry air. The combination of these
elements will hinder the develop of convection in the inner core
of the system. The current NHC intensity forecast has Karina
weakening to a tropical storm Saturday and becoming a post-tropical
low around 60 h. This intensity forecast is very close to the most
recent multi-model consensus aids (HCCA and IVCN) and is similar to
the previous intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 21.4N 142.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 21.9N 143.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 22.5N 144.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 23.1N 145.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.5N 146.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 24.0N 149.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 08/0600Z 24.6N 151.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 050842
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 04 2026

...KARINA HOLDS ON TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER CENTRAL PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 142.5W
ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 142.5 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND KARINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST TROPICAL BY MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB (29.06 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 050842
TCMCP5

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 142.5W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 120SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 142.5W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 142.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.9N 143.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 144.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 65SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.1N 145.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 146.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 149.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.6N 151.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 142.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 141.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 141.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.2N 142.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.9N 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.7N 144.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.2N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.6N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.1N 150.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 142.0W. 05SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND
060400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 050232
TCDCP5

Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

Karina no longer has an apparent eye in visible satellite images.
The center of the hurricane is embedded underneath a small cold
overcast from an earlier burst of inner core convection. Water vapor
imagery shows Karina is moving within a very dry mid-level
environment, and some dry slots are noted within the circulation.
The objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have
decreased this cycle, with D-MINT, D-PRINT, and AiDT estimates
ranging from 62-71 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
slightly lowered to 70 kt.

A subtropical ridge to the north of Katrina continues to steer the
hurricane toward the west (280/8 kt). A mid- to upper-level trough
is expected to weaken the ridge over the next couple of days, which
should allow Karina to gain some latitude as it moves toward the
west-northwest and northwest. Then, a more westward motion is
forecast before the system is absorbed well to the north of the
Hawaiian Islands by the outer circulation of Hurricane Lowell.
There are no major changes to the updated track forecast, which
lies slightly left of the previous prediction mainly due to a small
southward adjustment to the initial position of Karina.

Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days as Katrina
moves over marginal SSTs and encounters increasing southwesterly
shear. This shear should continue to import drier air into Karina's
circulation and disrupt its convective organization. The forecast
shows Karina weakening to a tropical storm on Saturday and becoming
a post-tropical low in 60 h. This intensity prediction remains very
close to the latest multi-model consensus aids (HCCA and IVCN).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.7N 141.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.2N 142.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 21.9N 143.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 22.7N 144.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 23.2N 146.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 23.6N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 08/0000Z 24.1N 150.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 050231
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

...KARINA CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 141.9W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 141.9 West. Karina is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest is forecast over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely during the next
few days, and Karina is forecast to become post tropical by Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 050231
TCMCP5

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 141.9W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 141.9W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 141.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.2N 142.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.9N 143.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.7N 144.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N 146.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.6N 148.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.1N 150.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 141.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 042200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 034 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 034 CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 140.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 140.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.0N 142.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.7N 143.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.5N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.2N 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.7N 146.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.1N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 141.2W.
04SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 813 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WARNING NUMBER.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 140.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 140.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.0N 142.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.7N 143.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.5N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.2N 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.7N 146.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.1N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 141.2W. 04SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 813 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND
052200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33
PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPA45 PHFO 042039
TCDCP5

Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

Recent conventional satellite images show Karina has a ragged eye
with fragmented inner core convection surrounding its center. A
comparison of 89- and 37-GHz GMI and AMSR3 passive microwave images
from earlier today show the vortex is tilted with height, likely the
result of some mid-level west-southwesterly shear impinging on the
hurricane. These trends suggest Karina has continued to weaken, and
its initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt. This agrees well with a
blend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from HFO and JTWC (4.5/77 kt
and 4.0/65 kt, respectively), as well as D-PRINT and AiDT estimates
ranging from 70-75 kt.

The hurricane is being steered westward (280/9 kt) by a subtropical
ridge to the north of the hurricane. A northwestward motion is shown
between 24-48 h as the narrow ridge becomes reoriented to the
northeast of Karina, followed by a slight turn toward the
west-northwest as the ridge builds to the north of the system. A
small right-of-track adjustment was made to the NHC forecast from
36-72 h based on the latest multi-model consensus trends, but
otherwise this prediction is very similar to the previous forecast.

Karina is moving over marginal SSTs slightly lower than 26 deg C
within a dry mid-level environment (relative humidity less than 40
percent). With southwesterly shear likely to increase over Karina
during the next couple of days, these hostile conditions should
cause continued weakening. Karina is forecast to become a tropical
storm in 24 h and post-tropical between 60-72 h as its remaining
convection is sheared away. Shortly thereafter, what's left of
Karina will become absorbed by the outer circulation of Hurricane
Lowell, well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 20.6N 141.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.0N 142.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 21.7N 143.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 22.5N 144.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 23.2N 145.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.7N 146.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.1N 149.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTPA35 PHFO 042039
TCPCP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2026

...KARINA SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 141.1W
ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 141.1 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND KARINA IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST TROPICAL
BY MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=

Original Message :

WTPA25 PHFO 042038
TCMCP5

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP112026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 141.1W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 141.1W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 140.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 142.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 143.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 144.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.2N 145.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.7N 146.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 149.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 141.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 033
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 139.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 139.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.7N 141.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.4N 142.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.0N 143.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.8N 144.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.4N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.9N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 140.4W.
04SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 857 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 041445
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DEPICTS KARINA'S
NORTHWEST QUADRANT DEGRADING AS DRY AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE SYSTEM.
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO WARMED SLIGHTLY, WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ACROSS KARINA'S EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB WAS 5.0/90 KT,
WITH OBJECTIVE RATINGS FROM CIMSS BETWEEN 75-82 KT. BASED ON
KARINA'S DEGRADING STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS REDUCED
SLIGHTLY TO 80 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION WAS SET AT 280/9 KT. KARINA MOVED MORE WESTWARD
THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, GUIDED BY A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. LATER TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER, KARINA IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS
AN ONCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS AS TO HOW KARINA WILL REACT TO LOWELL ONCE
THE TWO APPROACH EACH OTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
GENERALLY EXHIBITS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WAS SHIFTED LEFTWARD SLIGHTLY IN
LIGHT OF KARINA'S MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION, BUT AFTER 24 H,
DIFFERENCES IN TRACK FROM THE LAST ADVISORY WERE MINIMAL.

GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SHIPS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT KARINA IN A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AS KARINA
MAKES ITS MORE NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS FORECAST. THE RATE OF
WEAKENING WAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, AND GENERALLY FALLS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
KARINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.

NOW THAT KARINA IS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS HURRICANE CAN BE FOUND UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN HEADERS
BEGINNING WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST. FUTURE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP5 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA45 PHFO. PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE ON
THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 20.4N 140.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.7N 141.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.4N 142.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 22.0N 143.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 22.8N 144.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 146.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 23.9N 148.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/ADAMS=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 041444
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 140.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 140.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 139.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 141.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.4N 142.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 143.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 144.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 146.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.9N 148.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 140.4W

FUTURE INFORMATION ON KARINA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ISSUED UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC HEADERS...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP5
...WMO HEADER WTPA25 PHFO.

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/ADAMS=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 041444
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

...KARINA STILL A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 140.4W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 140.4 West. Karina is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and it is expected to turn to
the northwest over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
although Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next
day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Future information on Karina can be found under Central Pacific
basin headers starting with the next advisory at 1100 AM HST, under
AWIPS header HFOTCPCP5, WMO header WTPA35 PHFO. Products will
continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov.

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Adams

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 032
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 20.3N 138.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 138.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.7N 140.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.3N 142.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.9N 143.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.5N 144.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.3N 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.9N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.3N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 139.5W.
04SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 914 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 040852
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026

...KARINA SLIGHTLY WEAKER BUT STILL WITH WINDS NEAR 100 MPH...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 139.3W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 139.3 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
although Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next
day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 040853
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1100 PM HST THU SEP 03 2026

THE EYE OF KARINA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE EYEWALL EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE AROUND -60 DEG C
WITH MORE DEEP CONVECTION PREVALENT OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB HAVE DECREASED
SOMEWHAT, AS HAVE MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 85
KT, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST SATCON VALUE FROM UW-CIMSS.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 285/8 KT. KARINA SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN 48 HOURS, A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE
NORTH OF HAWAII IS LIKELY TO CAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. BY
96 HOURS, KARINA SHOULD BE A SHALLOW WEAKENING SYSTEM AND IT WILL
PROBABLY TURN LEFTWARD WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE LOWELL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION AND FOLLOWS THE CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS KARINA APPROACHING AN AREA OF DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR WHICH IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ERODING THE HURRICANE WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COMMENCING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SSTS ALONG KARINA'S PATH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL THAT
MUCH MORE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE KARINA TO WEAKEN. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
DISSIPATE SOON THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 20.4N 139.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.7N 140.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 21.3N 142.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 21.9N 143.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 22.5N 144.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 23.3N 145.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 23.9N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 25.3N 151.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 040852
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 139.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 139.3W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 138.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.7N 140.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.3N 142.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.9N 143.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 144.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.3N 145.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.9N 147.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 25.3N 151.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 139.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 138.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 138.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.4N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.9N 141.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.5N 142.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.2N 143.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.9N 144.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.6N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.9N 150.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 138.6W.
04SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 965 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 040245
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
500 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026

...KARINA REMAINS STEADY BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 138.4W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 138.4 West. Karina is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
although Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next
day or two.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 040246
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 PM HST THU SEP 03 2026

KARINA CONTINUES TO CHUG ALONG AS A STRONG HURRICANE, WITH A
WELL-ESTABLISHED EYE, DESPITE DRY AIR INTRUSION BEGINNING TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM TAFB
REMAINS UNCHANGED AT A T5.0/90 KT, WHICH COMPLIMENTS THE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGING FROM 87-90 KT. GIVEN THE ABOVE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS UNALTERED AT 90 KT.

THE HURRICANE'S INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED NORTHERLY, NOW HEADING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 285/9 KT. RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME ERODED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS, KARINA'S
PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE LOWELL MAY ALSO HELP INDUCE A TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. DESPITE THIS MORE WESTWARD TURN, KARINA
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A THREAT TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICTS KARINA WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 H, SHOWING AN INCREASE
IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLING SSTS, AND A STEADY DESICCATION.
THESE FACTORS WILL CAUSE KARINA TO WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
FORECAST CALLING FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY MONDAY
AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST WAS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, ALIGNING
CLOSELY WITH THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 20.1N 138.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 20.4N 139.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 141.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.5N 142.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 22.2N 143.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 22.9N 144.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 23.6N 146.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 24.9N 150.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 040244
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 138.4W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 138.4W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 138.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.4N 139.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 141.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 142.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.2N 143.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 144.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.6N 146.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.9N 150.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 138.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 19.7N 137.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 137.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.1N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.5N 140.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.0N 142.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.8N 143.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.5N 144.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.3N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.7N 148.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 137.8W.
03SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1011 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 032032
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 137.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 90SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 280SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 137.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 137.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.1N 139.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N 140.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 142.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.8N 143.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 144.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.3N 145.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 148.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 137.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/BROWN=

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 032031
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1100 AM HST THU SEP 03 2026

KARINA'S COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER APPEAR MORE
ASYMMETRICAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM TAFB GAVE AN
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS
RANGED FROM 90-95 KT. WITH DVORAK ANALYSES CONTINUING TO TREND
DOWNWARD, ALONG WITH KARINA'S DEGRADED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DECREASED TO 90 KT.

KARINA'S INITIAL MOTION WAS SET SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD AT 275/9 KT.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH, BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN AND WEAKENS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR KARINA'S
TRACK IS FOR IT TO POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH LOWELL EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH MAY PULL KARINA A BIT MORE WESTWARD THAN THE LAST
ADVISORY HAD SUGGESTED. GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT THIS
POSSIBILITY, SO THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A
SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT, HOWEVER KARINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING KARINA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRIER
BASED ON LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING
IN THE SHORT TERM. MARGINAL SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE
WEEKEND. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY
MONDAY, BEFORE DISSIPATING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST FURTHER HASTENS THE RATE OF WEAKENING, GENERALLY FALLING
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.8N 137.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 20.1N 139.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.5N 140.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.0N 142.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.8N 143.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 22.5N 144.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 145.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 24.7N 148.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/BROWN=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 19.7N 136.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 136.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.1N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.6N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.0N 141.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.6N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.3N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.2N 144.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.5N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 136.8W.
03SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1067 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 961 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 031436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 AM HST THU SEP 03 2026

...KARINA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 136.7W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 136.7 WEST. KARINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), WITH A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KARINA IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, KARINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB (28.38 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/BERG=

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 031437
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 AM HST THU SEP 03 2026

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN KARINA'S ANNULAR APPEARANCE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM TAFB GAVE
AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
CIMSS RANGED FROM 90-95 KT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND
ACROSS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS SET AT 100 KT.

KARINA'S INITIAL MOTION WAS SET AT 280/9 KT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS IT
CONTINUES TO BE GUIDED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN ONCOMING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PULL KARINA MORE TO THE NORTHWEST, AWAY FROM
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WAS LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS
WESTWARD TO REFLECT A BLEND OF HCCA, GDMI, AND THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IN KARINA'S INTENSITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY DRIER MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 24 H, KARINA'S WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST TO HASTEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SSTS
DECREASE, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY
4. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INCREASES THE RATE OF WEAKENING
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, FALLING JUST ABOVE MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE WITHIN THE FIRST 24 H BEFORE LANDING CLOSER TO GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 19.8N 136.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 20.1N 138.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.6N 139.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 21.0N 141.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 21.6N 142.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 22.3N 143.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 23.2N 144.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 24.5N 147.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/BERG=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 031436
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 136.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 200SE 280SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 136.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 136.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.1N 138.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.6N 139.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 141.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.6N 142.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 143.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.2N 144.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 147.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 136.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/BERG=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 135.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 135.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.0N 137.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.4N 138.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.9N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.4N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.1N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 23.0N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 24.6N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 26.3N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 135.8W.
03SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1124 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030856
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026

...KARINA LIKELY TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 135.7W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 135.7 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days,
with a more northwestward motion by this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Karina is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next several days. However, Karina is expected to
remain a hurricane for the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030857
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1100 PM HST WED SEP 02 2026

WHILE KARINA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN ANNULAR APPEARANCE WITH A
LARGE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION, ITS CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY WARMING. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS ALSO EXPANDED TO A
DIAMETER OF 30 TO 40 N MI. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB GIVE A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102 KT AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 95 TO 109 KT. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 105 KT, NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE
ESTIMATES. A COUPLE OF RECENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES MORE OR
LESS CONFIRMED THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII
FOR THE HURRICANE.

KARINA CONTINUES WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND
285/10 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTH. THEREAFTER, A MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE TO THE NORTH
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD
BEND IN THE TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GOOGLE
DEEPMIND AND HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS, WHICH HAVE
PROVED TO BE QUITE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE SO FAR.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. KARINA SHOULD MOVE OVER GRADUALLY
COOLING OCEAN WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL AIR MASS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY. GIVEN THESE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, KARINA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 5 DAYS OR
SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN CONSIDERATION OF THE
ANNULAR STRUCTURE, BUT IS CLOSE TO THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE MEAN
THEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 19.6N 135.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.0N 137.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 20.4N 138.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.9N 140.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 21.4N 142.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 22.1N 143.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 23.0N 144.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 24.6N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 26.3N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030856
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 135.7W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 210SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 135.7W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 135.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.0N 137.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 138.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.9N 140.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 142.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 143.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.0N 144.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 24.6N 147.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 26.3N 150.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 135.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 134.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 134.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.7N 136.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.1N 137.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.6N 139.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.1N 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.8N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.7N 143.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.6N 145.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.1N 149.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 134.8W.
03SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1182 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 030239
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 PM HST WED SEP 02 2026

LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OF KARINA SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE
CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. KARINA CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN AN ANNULAR APPEARANCE, WHILE THE EYE REMAINS CLOUD-FILLED.
THE LATEST TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE HELD STEADY
FROM 18Z TO 00Z, AT 5.5/6.5 OR 127 KT. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM CIMSS VARY AROUND 105-110 KT. GIVEN THE WARMING CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT.

KARINA IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 9 KT. A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARINA SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
KARINA IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS WEEK
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY AN ONCOMING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. KARINA'S TRACK FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, REFLECTING A BLEND OF HCCA AND GDMI. MODELS
EXHIBIT RELATIVELY STRONG AGREEMENT IN KARINA'S TRACK THROUGH THE
FIRST 48 H, BEFORE SPREAD INCREASES THEREAFTER.

WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WEAK OVER THE
NEXT 48 H, KARINA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD COOLER SSTS AND INTO
A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, BUT STILL LIES AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS, AND THEN CLOSER TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
CAUSE KARINA TO LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY
DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 19.3N 134.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 19.7N 136.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 20.1N 137.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 20.6N 139.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 21.1N 141.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 21.8N 142.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 22.7N 143.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 24.6N 145.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 26.1N 149.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER EVANS=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 030235
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
500 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026

...KARINA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 134.7W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 134.7 West. Karina is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A slow weakening trend is forecast the next
few days, followed by a more steady rate of weakening. Karina is
likely to remain a hurricane the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 030235
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 134.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 134.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 134.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.7N 136.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.1N 137.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.6N 139.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.1N 141.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N 142.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.7N 143.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 24.6N 145.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 26.1N 149.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 134.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 18.8N 133.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 133.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.3N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.8N 137.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.2N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.6N 140.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.2N 142.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 22.1N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 24.1N 145.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 26.4N 149.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 133.9W.
02SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1206 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 022032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026

...KARINA CONTINUES WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 133.8W
ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Karina was
located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 133.8 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. A slow weakening trend is forecast the next
few days, followed by a more steady rate of weakening. Karina is
likely to remain a hurricane the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 022033
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1100 AM HST WED SEP 02 2026

KARINA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED THIS MORNING,
CHARACTERIZED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EYE
THAT HAS BECOME MORE CLOUD-FILLED. THE SYSTEM IS STILL ANNULAR,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE SYSTEM LOSING THAT STRUCTURE IN
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT DEPICTS THE EASTERN EYEWALL HAS
STARTED TO THIN. THE DATA T-NUMBER FROM THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION HAS DECREASED TO T5.5, WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
OF 6.5. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO BEEN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 112
TO 127 KT. GIVEN THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO
120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE STEERING PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED, AND A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, A MID-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE
WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN, INDUCING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TURN.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND GDMI CONSENSUS AIDS.

KARINA WILL TRACK OVER MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LOW WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING INTO A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS BY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD
INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WIND
SHEAR IS THAN EXPECTED TO INCREASE, COMBINED WITH THE TRACK MOVING
OVER COOLER SSTS BY 72 H, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MORE STEADY RATE OF
WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGHER END OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM, GIVEN THE STILL ANNULAR
STRUCTURE, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER RATE CLOSER TO SOME OF THE CONSENSUS
INTENSITY AIDS. BY DAY 5, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL AS MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING DEVOID OF
CONVECTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.9N 133.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.3N 135.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.8N 137.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 20.2N 139.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.6N 140.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 21.2N 142.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 22.1N 143.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 24.1N 145.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 26.4N 149.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 022032
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 133.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 133.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 133.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.3N 135.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.8N 137.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.2N 139.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.6N 140.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.2N 142.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 143.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 24.1N 145.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 26.4N 149.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 133.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 132.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 132.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.2N 134.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.7N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.1N 138.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.5N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 21.0N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.7N 143.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.6N 145.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 26.0N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 132.9W. 02SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1292 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021200Z IS
940 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 021435
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
500 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026

...KARINA REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 132.8W
ABOUT 1455 MI...2340 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 132.8 West. Karina is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
today, followed by slow weakening over the next several days.
However, Karina is likely to remain a powerful hurricane the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 021435
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 AM HST WED SEP 02 2026

KARINA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A CIRCULAR, ANNULAR STRUCTURE ON
PROXY-VIS AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE HURRICANE HAS A
WELL-DEFINED, WARM 30 N MI EYE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND
THE INNER CORE. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS AND TAFB RANGE FROM 109 TO 137 KT.
BASED ON THE STEADY SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND A RANGE OF THESE
ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 125 KT.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
285/9 KT. THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS UNCHANGED, WITH THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. AS A MID-LEVEL LOW
MOVES NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN, AND THE
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS AND LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.

KARINA REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
TRACKING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE 26-27C ISOTHERM. WIND SHEAR ALSO
REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BEFORE INCREASING BEYOND 72 H.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BEFORE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER SSTS,
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE ANNULAR STRUCTURE, WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
MORE GRADUAL THAN NORMAL. THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE, GIVEN THE ANNULAR STRUCTURE, AND SHOWS A
GRADUAL RATE OF WEAKENING DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD BEFORE A MORE STEADY RATE OF WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. GLOBAL INFRARED SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
KARINA WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION BY DAY 5,
DUE TO THE SHEAR AND DRY AIR, AND THE NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL AT THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 18.8N 132.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.2N 134.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.7N 136.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 20.1N 138.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 20.5N 140.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 21.0N 141.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 21.7N 143.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 23.6N 145.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 26.0N 148.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 021435
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 132.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 230SE 250SW 280NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 132.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 132.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 134.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.7N 136.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.1N 138.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N 140.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 141.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.7N 143.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.6N 145.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.0N 148.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 132.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 18.5N 131.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 131.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.0N 133.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.5N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.9N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.4N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.8N 140.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.4N 142.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.9N 144.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 25.2N 147.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 131.8W. 02SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1141 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020600Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 020600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND
031000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020843
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

...KARINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 131.7W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 131.7 West. Karina is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible through Wednesday morning, followed by slow weakening
over the next several days. However, Karina is likely to remain a
major hurricane into Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020843
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 01 2026

KARINA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS EVEN A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE
THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS EXHIBITING A
WELL-DEFINED 25 N MI DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED IN VERY DEEP CONVECTION.
THE EYE TEMPERATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS WARMED TO AROUND 16 DEG
C OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. USING A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES, THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 125 KT. THIS IS CLOSE
TO THE LATEST DPRINT VALUE FROM UW-CIMSS. KARINA'S CLOUD PATTERN IS
QUITE SYMMETRICAL AND IS TYPICAL OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE.

KARINA CONTINUES MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST, OR AROUND
280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW ADVISORIES. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
A NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM
ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR
SO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF
HAWAII. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NHC TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST ECMWF, HCCA, AND GOOGLE
DEEPMIND PREDICTIONS. THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT KARINA
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

KARINA REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THEREFORE, THE HURRICANE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE THEREAFTER DUE TO DRIER AIR AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER, SINCE KARINA APPEARS TO BE
AN ANNULAR HURRICANE, ITS WEAKENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE MODEL GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ANNULAR NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM. KARINA IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 18.5N 131.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 19.0N 133.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.5N 135.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 19.9N 137.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 20.4N 139.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 20.8N 140.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 21.4N 142.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 22.9N 144.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 25.2N 147.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020842
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 131.7W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 131.7W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 131.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 133.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 135.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.9N 137.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 95SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.4N 139.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.8N 140.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 142.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 144.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 25.2N 147.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 131.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 18.2N 130.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 130.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.7N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.1N 134.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.5N 136.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.9N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.2N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.7N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.3N 144.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.5N 146.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 131.0W.02SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1124 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 020000Z IS 946 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 36
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 020237
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
500 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

...KARINA GAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC OCEAN...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 130.8W
ABOUT 1385 MI...2230 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 130.8 West. Karina is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected
during the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb (27.94 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Kelly

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 020238
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 PM HST TUE SEP 01 2026

THE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION FOR KARINA HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DOWN TO AROUND
-70 DEGREES CELSIUS. BASED ON THE PRESENTATION FROM THE INFRARED
AND ANALYSIS FROM THE SHIP GUIDANCE, KARINA HAS DEVELOPED ANNULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER, THE EYE STILL REMAINS CLOUD FILLED AT
THIS TIME. THE CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
114 TO 129 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY
HAS BEEN BROUGHT UP TO 120 KT.

THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT. A GENERAL
SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. DURING THE WEEKEND, A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
SEEMS LIKELY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HAWAII. THE CURRENT
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH
ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN SPEED AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

IN THE SHORT TERM, THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY A
BIT, HOWEVER, IN THE LONG RUN, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR KARINA DUE TO COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND DECREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WITH KARINA DEVELOPING ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS
THE RATE OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER AT FIRST. THE CURRENT
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A BIT OF STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE FIRST
12 H, AND THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING FOR 24 TO 60H. PAST 60 H, THE
RATE OF WEAKENING SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 40%.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 18.3N 130.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.1N 134.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 19.5N 136.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 19.9N 138.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 20.2N 139.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 20.7N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 22.3N 144.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 24.5N 146.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 020237
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.1N 134.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.5N 136.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 95SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.9N 138.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 139.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 141.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 144.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 24.5N 146.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 130.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 129.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 129.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.4N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.9N 133.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.3N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.7N 137.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.0N 138.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.3N 140.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.6N 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.6N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 130.1W. 01SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1099 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 011800Z IS 949 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 36
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 012031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

...KARINA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 129.9W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 129.9 West. Karina is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 012031
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 01 2026

KARINA REMAINS A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE
APPEARS TO HAVE LOST A LITTLE STRENGTH. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE
REMAINS CLOUD FILLED AND THE CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE ARE NOT QUITE
AS COLD AS THEY WERE EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 KT TO ABOUT 135 KT, AND BASED ON
THAT DATA AND THE SLIGHTLY DEGRADED APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS NUDGED LOWER TO 115 KT.

THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. A GENERAL
SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. OVER THE WEEKEND, A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
SEEMS LIKELY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HAWAII. LITTLE CHANGE
WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT AT DAYS 4 AND 5. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN THE MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

KARINA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOSE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE HURRICANE COULD
BECOME ANNULAR, WHICH MIGHT CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN AT A SLOWER PACE THAN
AVERAGE. THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING WEAKENING, BUT VARY ON
THE RATE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE,
AND LIES A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 18.2N 129.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.4N 131.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.9N 133.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.3N 135.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 137.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 20.0N 138.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 20.3N 140.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 21.6N 143.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.6N 146.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 012030
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 129.9W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 100SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 129.9W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 129.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.4N 131.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.9N 133.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.3N 135.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.7N 137.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 138.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 140.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.6N 143.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.6N 146.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 129.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 021
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 18.0N 128.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 128.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.3N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.8N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.2N 134.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.5N 136.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.8N 137.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.1N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.1N 143.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.8N 146.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 129.1W. 01SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1075 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.=MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 011200Z IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 36
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND 021600Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 011431
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
500 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

...KARINA REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 129.0W
ABOUT 1280 MI...2055 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 129.0 West. Karina is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 011431
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 AM HST TUE SEP 01 2026

KARINA REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME SIGNS THAT THE CYCLONE MIGHT BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT QUITE AS SYMMETRIC. A BLEND OF THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 120 KT. DESPITE BEING VERY STRONG, THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN AND WIND FIELD ARE RELATIVELY COMPACT.

THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. A GENERAL
SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. OVER THE WEEKEND, A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
SEEMS LIKELY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AS THE CYCLONE
APPROACHES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HAWAII. LITTLE CHANGE
WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR A NUDGE TO THE
NORTH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE HCCA, GDMI, AND TVCN MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD FROM DAYS 3 TO 5, AND CONFIDENCE IN
THAT PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

KARINA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOSE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND DECREASING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE
HURRICANE COULD BECOME ANNULAR, WHICH MIGHT CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN AT A
SLOWER PACE THAN AVERAGE. THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING
WEAKENING, BUT VARY ON THE RATE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LIES A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 18.1N 129.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 18.3N 130.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 18.8N 132.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 19.2N 134.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 19.5N 136.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 19.8N 137.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 20.1N 139.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 21.1N 143.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 22.8N 146.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 011431
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 129.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 129.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 128.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 130.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.8N 132.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 134.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.5N 136.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N 137.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.1N 139.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 143.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 146.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 129.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 020
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 126.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 126.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.2N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.5N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.9N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.3N 134.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.7N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.0N 137.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.9N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.3N 144.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 126.9W. 01SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1639 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND
020400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 010836
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1100 PM HST MON AUG 31 2026

KARINA IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80 DEG C OR EVEN COLDER. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING ITS
INTENSITY. IN FACT, THE OBJECTIVE SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE, SATCON, FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGESTS THAT KARINA HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH AN ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED NEAR 120 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS AT THIS TIME, AND KARINA STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME
AN ANNULAR HURRICANE.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR
285/9 KT. A NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF KARINA SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
TRACK AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS OR SO. BY
DAYS 4-5 A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
SHOULD INDUCE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS CLOSE TO THE
SIMPLE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE NORTH
OF THE NHC TRACK IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

KARINA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM OCEAN WATERS WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR MASS AND
GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING, KARINA
COULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY MORE THAN EXPECTED IF IT TAKES ON AN
ANNULAR STRUCTURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 18.0N 127.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 18.5N 129.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 18.9N 131.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 19.3N 133.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 19.6N 135.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 19.9N 136.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 20.2N 138.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 20.8N 142.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 22.4N 145.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 010835
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026

...KARINA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 127.9W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 127.9 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible
through Tuesday morning followed by a gradual weakening trend
beginning by late Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
couple of days and will likely spread northward to southern
California through midweek. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 010834
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 127.9W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 127.9W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 127.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.5N 129.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.9N 131.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.3N 133.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.6N 135.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.9N 136.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.2N 138.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.8N 142.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.4N 145.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 127.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 17.7N 126.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 126.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.2N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.5N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.9N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.3N 134.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.7N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.0N 137.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.9N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.3N 144.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 126.9W.
01SEP26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1028 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 010233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026

...KARINA HOLDING STEADY AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 126.6W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 126.6 West. Karina is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through the forecast period.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity remain possible
through tonight, followed by a gradual weakening trend on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
couple of days and will likely spread northward to southern
California on Monday through midweek. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 010234
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 PM HST MON AUG 31 2026

LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN
KARINA'S STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE 00Z SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SHOWED AN INCREASE TO T5.5/102
KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 110 TO 115 KT.
GIVEN THE STEADY TREND OF KARINA'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS HELD AT 115 KT.

KARINA'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/8 KT, THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, GUIDED BY
MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARD, LITTLE WAS CHANGED IN
THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY,
HCCA, AND GDMI.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WHICH
REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SHIPS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT KARINA WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND OVER WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND DAY 3, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS AND A
DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THUS, THE LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO
REFLECTS A MORE STEADY WEAKENING TREND AT THAT TIME, NEAR THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 17.8N 126.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 18.2N 128.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 18.5N 130.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 19.3N 134.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 19.7N 136.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 20.0N 137.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 20.9N 141.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 22.3N 144.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 010232
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 126.6W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 126.6W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 126.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.2N 128.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.3N 134.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.7N 136.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.0N 137.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 141.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 144.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 17.4N 125.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 125.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.7N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.1N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.5N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.9N 133.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.3N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.6N 136.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.3N 140.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.5N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312200Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 126.0W.
31AUG26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1022 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311800Z IS 950
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 312039
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 31 2026

...COMPACT KARINA STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 125.8W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 125.8 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through the forecast period.

Maximum sustained winds decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity
remain possible through tonight, followed by a gradual weakening
trend on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
couple of days and will likely spread northward to southern
California on Monday through midweek. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Roberts

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 312040
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1100 AM HST MON AUG 31 2026

THIS MORNING'S VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE
KARINA'S CLOUD PATTERN, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
EYEWALL, HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LASTEST
TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
CLASSIFICATION, AND THE CMISS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 110 TO 115 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

KARINA'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR
285/8 KT. A NARROW SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE IN THIS GENERAL HEADING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE HCCA AND THE
GDMI AIDS.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE SHORT
TERM, AND SLIGHT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHILE KARINA'S
INNER CORE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRUCTURAL CHANGES. THROUGH THE
REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD, A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WHILE KARINA MOVES INTO A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND TRAVERSES
COOLER OCEANIC TEMPERATURES. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SKILLED INTENSITY MODELS, AND LIES CLOSE TO
THE NOAA HCCA CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 17.5N 125.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.7N 127.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.5N 131.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 18.9N 133.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 19.3N 135.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 19.6N 136.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 20.3N 140.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 21.5N 144.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/ROBERTS=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 312039
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.8W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 125.8W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.7N 127.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 131.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.9N 133.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.3N 135.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.6N 136.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 55SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 140.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 55SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 144.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 45SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 125.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/ROBERTS=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 311600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 124.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 124.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.6N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.0N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.4N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.8N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.2N 134.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.5N 136.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 20.2N 139.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.1N 143.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 125.3W.
31AUG26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1011 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND 011600Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 311455
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
500 AM HST Mon Aug 31 2026

...KARINA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 125.1W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 125.1 West. Karina is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through the rest of today. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity
remain possible today, and a gradual weakening trend is expected to
begin on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
couple of days and will likely spread northward to southern
California on Monday through midweek. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Roberts

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 311455
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 AM HST MON AUG 31 2026

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE
OF KARINA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DEFINED. THE CLOUD TOPS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED TO AROUND -60
C, AND THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
T5.5/102 KT. THE CMISS SATELLITE INTENSITY OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES
RANGE FROM 115 TO 129 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KT.

KARINA CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD, ESTIMATED AT 275
DEGREES AT 7 KT. A NARROW BUT EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PARKED
TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE, AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THE DOMINANT STEERING IMPACT ON KARINA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE ORIGINAL RIDGE BECOMES
ERODED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US COAST,
BUT A MORE MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED RIDGE TAKES ITS PLACE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KARINA, WHICH SHOULD ACT TO GRADUALLY SLOW ITS FORWARD
MOTION. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE GUIDANCE
FROM THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE
DEEPMIND (GDMI) GUIDANCE.

WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE SHORT
TERM, THE HURRICANE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DUE
TO INNER-CORE CHANGES. KARINA MAY DEVELOP ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS
THAT COULD HELP REDUCE THE RATE OF WEAKENING THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO UNDERGO. THE CURRENT SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE
THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEYOND 72 H WILL DROP BELOW 40%,
CONSEQUENTLY, ABUNDANT DRY, STABLE AIR WILL IMPACT THE HURRICANE.
ONCE KARINA MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS PAST 96 H, AND MORE DRY
AIR IS PULLED INTO THE HURRICANE'S INNER CORE, THE RATE OF
WEAKENING COULD INCREASE AT A FASTER RATE INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS.

KARINA'S WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON 0553 UTC METOP-B/C
ASCAT OVERPASSES, AND 0757 UTC OSCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 17.4N 125.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 17.6N 126.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.0N 128.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 18.4N 130.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 18.8N 132.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 19.2N 134.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 19.5N 136.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 20.2N 139.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 21.1N 143.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/ROBERTS=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 311454
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1500 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.1W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 35SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.1W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.6N 126.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.0N 128.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.8N 132.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 134.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.5N 136.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 55SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 139.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 55SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.1N 143.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 45SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 125.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/ROBERTS=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 124.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 124.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.4N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.7N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.1N 129.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.6N 131.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.1N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.4N 135.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 20.0N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 21.0N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 124.6W.
31AUG26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1002 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 310847
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2026

KARINA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BELOW -75 C WRAPPED BACK
AROUND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WHILE THE EYE IS MAKING AN
ATTEMPT TO CLEAR OUT SOME. IN RESPONSE, THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE, AFTER PLATEAUING EARLIER, HAS BEGUN TO RISE
AGAIN, WITH THE LATEST VALUE AT T6.6/129 KT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE
MAJORITY OF THE OTHER OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE 6-12 H OLD, LIKELY TO
TO THE LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE 06 UTC TAFB SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE WAS CONSTRAINED LOWER AT CI 5.5/102 KT, THOUGH THE
DATA-T NUMBER WAS ALSO 6.5/125 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
SET AT 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, MAKING KARINA A FORMIDABLE CATEGORY
4 HURRICANE.

KARINA CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF GENERALLY WESTWARD, ESTIMATED AT 275
DEGREES AT 8 KT. A NARROW BUT EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PARKED TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE, AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE
DOMINANT STEERING IMPACT ON KARINA OVER THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE ORIGINAL RIDGE BECOMES ERODED BY
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US COAST, BUT A MORE
MERIDIONAL ORIENTED RIDGE TAKES ITS PLACE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
KARINA, WHICH SHOULD ACT TO GRADUALLY SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION. ONCE
AGAIN THERE HAS BEEN ANOTHER LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE, AND THE
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION,
SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE LATEST HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS
APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDMI) GUIDANCE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER KARINA REMAIN FAVORABLE, AND THERE IS
STILL SOME TIME FOR THE HURRICANE TO INTENSIFY A BIT MORE IN THE
SHORT-TERM. HOWEVER, IT ALSO IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM WILL SOON START
TO UNDERGO INNER-CORE FLUCTUATIONS LIKE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
(ERCS), THOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO
DETERMINE IF SUCH AN EVENT IS PREPARING TO TAKE PLACE. ANOTHER
FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT BEYOND THE NEXT 24-36 H, KARINA MIGHT
FIND ITSELF IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE HURRICANE
TO DEVELOP ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS, WHICH COULD SLOW ITS RATE OF
WEAKENING DESPITE THE STORM MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLING
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, STICKING PRETTY CLOSE TO THE LATEST HCCA INTENSITY
FORECAST. A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN KARINA IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26 C
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 17.2N 124.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 17.4N 125.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 18.1N 129.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 18.6N 131.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 19.1N 133.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 19.4N 135.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 20.0N 139.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 21.0N 143.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 310842
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2026

...KARINA INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES
WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 124.4W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST. KARINA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARINA IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB (27.82 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY KARINA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 310837
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0900 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 45SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.4N 125.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.1N 129.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.6N 131.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.1N 133.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.4N 135.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 20.0N 139.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 143.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 310400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 123.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 123.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.1N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.4N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.9N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.4N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.9N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.3N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.2N 137.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.9N 140.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310400Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 123.8W.
31AUG26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 994 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310000Z IS 954 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311000Z, 311600Z, 312200Z AND 010400Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 310000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 013A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 013A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 123.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 123.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.1N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.3N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 17.6N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.0N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.6N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.0N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 19.9N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.7N 139.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310000Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 123.4W.
31AUG26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 991 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310400Z, 311000Z, 311600Z AND 312200Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 310255
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2026

WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MINIMAL WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR HAVE ALLOWED FOR MAJOR HURRICANE KARINA TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALED A VERTICALLY ALIGNED CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW WARMING
CLOUD TOPS AND SLIGHT EROSION OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NORTH OF
THE EYE, WHICH MAY INDICATE THAT THIS PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS BEGINNING TO LEVEL OFF. RECENT OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 91 TO 122 KT. THE
INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

KARINA IS MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD AROUND 8 KT, STEERED BY A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THIS RIDGE. THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 H.
BEYOND THAT POINT, A LARGE SPREAD DEVELOPS AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE,
ATTRIBUTED TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF ANOTHER
RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ADVISORY, TOWARDS
HCCA AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND. OF NOTE, KARINA'S TRACK COULD HAVE
SOME INFLUENCE ON TROPICAL STORM LOWELL'S MOTION AS THE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.

THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS, WITH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 C. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 H AS KARINA ENCOUNTERS SUFFICIENTLY
WARM WATERS WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW WIND SHEAR.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR. FOLLOWING KARINA'S RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THIS EVENING, THE FORECAST LIES NEAR THE UPPER END
OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST HCCA AID.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 17.1N 123.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 17.1N 124.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 17.4N 126.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.9N 128.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.4N 130.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 19.3N 134.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 20.2N 137.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 20.9N 140.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 310253
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
500 PM HST Sun Aug 30 2026

...MAJOR HURRICANE KARINA MOVING WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 123.8W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 123.8 West. Karina is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue through the day on Monday. A turn toward the west-northwest
is forecast Monday night into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Karina is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible over
the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Adams

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 310253
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.8W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 110SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 210SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.8W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 123.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.1N 124.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.4N 126.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.9N 128.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.4N 130.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.3N 134.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.2N 137.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 20.9N 140.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 123.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 302340
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2026

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KARINA HAS IMPROVED IMMENSELY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70 TO -75 C
NOW COMPLETELY SURROUND A WARM EYE, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 0 TO -5
C. AN EARLIER GPM GMI MICROWAVE PASS ALSO REVEALED A COMPACT AND
WELL-ESTABLISHED EYE AND PRONOUNCED CURVED BANDING AROUND THE
CENTER. KARINA IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 29 C AND REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED
RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, RANGING FROM 88-109 KT. BASED
ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, MICROWAVE IMAGERY, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 110 KT, MAKING KARINA A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THERE WERE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS. A
NEW FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AT 0300 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0000Z 17.2N 123.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 17.1N 124.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 17.3N 125.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.6N 127.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 18.0N 129.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 18.6N 131.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 19.0N 132.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 19.9N 136.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 20.7N 139.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 302338
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Special Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...KARINA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 123.4W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 123.4 West. Karina is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Karina is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
will be possible over the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Adams

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 302337
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0000 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.4W AT 31/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 5NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 180SE 90SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 300SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.4W AT 31/0000Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.3N 125.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 129.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.6N 131.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 132.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.9N 136.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.7N 139.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 122.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 122.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.1N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.3N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.6N 127.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.0N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.6N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 19.0N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.9N 136.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 20.7N 139.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 123.1W.
30AUG26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 981 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301800Z
IS 978 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 310400Z, 311000Z, 311600Z AND 312200Z.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 302049
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...KARINA GAINING STRENGTH AND MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 123.2W
ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 123.2 West. Karina is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening seems likely, and Karina is
forecast to become a major hurricane in a day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 5 miles (10 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 302050
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2026

CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE EYE OF KARINA
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD RING OF CLOUD TOPS. THE MOST
RECENT TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS T4.0/65 KT. HOWEVER,
THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE IN THE RANGE OF
70-99 KT. BASED ON THE GIVEN DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
SET TO 80 KT.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE IS
IMPROVING, AND WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, KARINA SHOULD BE
STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. DURING THIS TIME, KARINA
COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL START TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE LATER ON MONDAY AND
INTO TUESDAY, WHEN THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS SHOULD COME TO A
HALT. AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE HOSTILE, DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR, THE HURRICANE SHOULD
START TO WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE
CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE,
BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO HCCA.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF KARINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP KARINA ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS
DAYS 3 AND BEYOND AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS A HIGHER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE. THE LATEST NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, BUT
STILL FOLLOWS HCCA AND GDMI AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 17.2N 123.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 17.1N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 17.3N 125.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 17.6N 127.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 18.0N 129.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 18.6N 131.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 19.0N 132.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 19.9N 136.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 20.7N 139.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 302049
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.2W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 5NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.2W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 122.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.3N 125.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.6N 127.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.0N 129.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.6N 131.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 132.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 19.9N 136.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.7N 139.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 123.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 121.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 121.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.5N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.6N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 17.8N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.1N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 18.6N 130.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 19.1N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.0N 135.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.0N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 122.3W.
30AUG26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 957 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301200Z IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z AND 311600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

0001094100
00001

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 301448
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
800 AM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN
PACIFIC OCEAN...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 122.1W
ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 122.1 West. Karina is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening seems likely, and Karina is
forecast to become a major hurricane in a day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 301449
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2026

THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KARINA IS UNDERGOING
SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE INNER CORE AS A NEW BURST OF
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
CYCLONE. THE MOST RECENT TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS
T4.0/65 KT, AND THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE
IN THE RANGE OF 61-80 KT. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY REMAINS AT 70 KT.

THE CYCLONE HAS A GOOD FUNDAMENTAL INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THUS KARINA SHOULD BE STRENGTHENING FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO DAY. IT WILL BE AROUND THIS TIME THAT KARINA COULD
REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL START TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE LATER MONDAY, AT WHICH THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS SHOULD COME TO A HALT. AS THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE HOSTILE, DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
DRIER AIR, THE HURRICANE SHOULD START TO WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE
AND LATER PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE, BUT STILL BELOW THE GDMI AND THE
HCCA AIDS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF KARINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP KARINA ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS
DAYS 3 AND BEYOND AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS A HIGHER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE. THE CURRENT
NHC TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, BUT STILL
REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 17.3N 122.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 17.6N 125.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.8N 126.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.1N 128.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 18.6N 130.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 19.1N 131.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 20.0N 135.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 21.0N 138.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 301448
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.1W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 90SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 300SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.1W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 121.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.6N 125.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.8N 126.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.1N 128.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...125NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.6N 130.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.1N 131.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 135.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.0N 138.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 11E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 120.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 120.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.6N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.8N 124.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.9N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.3N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 18.9N 129.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.4N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 20.3N 133.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.2N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 121.3W.
30AUG26. HURRICANE 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND 311000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

0001038000
00001

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300832
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
200 AM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026

...KARINA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GAIN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 121.1W
ABOUT 820 MI...1325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 121.1 West. Karina is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A slower westward
to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening seems likely, and Karina is
forecast to become a major hurricane in a day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 300832
TCDEP1

HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2026

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KARINA IS STRENGTHENING AND HAS
BECOME A HURRICANE. CURVED BANDS NOW WRAP COMPLETELY AROUND THE
CENTER, AND THE DRY SLOTS NOTED EARLIER HAVE FILLED IN. THERE IS A
WIDE RANGE IN THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, FROM ABOUT
50 TO 80 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT, BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE ESTIMATES AND CONTINUED IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN. A
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED, AND
THE INITIAL 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON
THAT DATA.

NOW THAT KARINA HAS A CLOSED AND SYMMETRIC INNER CORE, SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THAT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO STALL ON MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS KARINA MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT STILL BELOW THE GDMI AND HCCA
AIDS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF KARINA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP KARINA ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
COURSE, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER PACE, THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM DAYS 3 TO 5, BUT IN
GENERAL, THE LATEST MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE. BASED
ON THIS GUIDANCE, THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTHWARD,
BUT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 17.3N 121.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 17.6N 122.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 17.8N 124.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 17.9N 125.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 18.3N 127.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 18.9N 129.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 19.4N 131.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 20.3N 133.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 21.2N 136.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 300831
TCMEP1

HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 121.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 90SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 121.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 120.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.6N 122.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.8N 124.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.9N 125.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.3N 127.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.9N 129.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.4N 131.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.3N 133.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 136.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 121.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 119.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 119.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.3N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.6N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 17.8N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.0N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.7N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.3N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 20.7N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 22.6N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 120.4W.
30AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 965
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300000Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 300257
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026

THE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KARINA HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE TONIGHT, WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NOW LOCATED BENEATH
A WELL-DEFINED CDO WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BELOW -80 C. A RECENT
GPM GMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED A COMPACT, BUT SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC
CENTER, WITH A SLIGHT LACK OF DEFINITION EXTENDING SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY, WITH THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 4.0/65 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 52 TO 66 KT. BASED ON THE
TILT IN THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE RELATIVELY
WIDE RANGE OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

KARINA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN U.S., WEAKENING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST. KARINA WILL THEN BE STEERED
PRIMARILY BY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE BEYOND 60 H, LARGELY DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THAT WILL GUIDE THE STORM.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH 48 H, BUT HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPDATED FORECAST REMAINS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE CONSENSUS.

THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF AROUND
29 C IN A RELATIVELY MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. KARINA IS FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN,
ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF- AND GFS-BASED SHIPS
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 H. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS
FOR KARINA TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT AND REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR
THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, BUT REMAINS SLIGHTLY BELOW
HCCA. AFTER 72 H, KARINA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY DRY
AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE
GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 17.0N 120.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 17.3N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 17.6N 123.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 17.8N 125.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 18.0N 126.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 18.7N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 19.3N 130.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 20.7N 132.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 22.6N 134.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 300256
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...KARINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 120.2W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 120.2 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion with a slightly slower forward speed is
forecast tonight, followed by a turn to the west on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days.
Karina is forecast to become a hurricane later tonight and could
become a major hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this
weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Adams

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 300255
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......260NE 240SE 90SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.3N 121.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.8N 125.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.7N 128.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 130.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 20.7N 132.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 22.6N 134.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 120.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=

Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 118.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 118.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.9N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.4N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 17.7N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 17.9N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 18.3N 126.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.0N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 20.4N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 22.2N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 119.0W.
29AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 998
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 292032
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...KARINA STRENGTHENS TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 118.8W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 118.8 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), followed by
a more westerly motion over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days.
Karina is forecast to become a hurricane within the next day and
could become a major hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center. The Mexican Navy weather station on Clarion Island
recently reported a wind gust of 55 mph (88 km/h) in one of
Karina's outer rain bands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 292032
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY, SHOWS
THAT KARINA HAS MADE MANY IMPROVEMENTS TO ITS STRUCTURE IN THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME DRY AIR THAT
HAS GOTTEN INTO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE, WHICH SHOULD HINDER ITS
INTENSIFICATION A BIT. THE LATEST DVORAK FIX FROM TAFB HAS T4.0/65
KT, AND THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CMISS ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 57-61 KT. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 60
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE STORM CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OF ABOUT 315/11 KT,
DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS THIS RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AND TAKE
OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FLOW. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK EXCEPT FOR A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS,
AND IT CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HCCA GUIDANCE.

THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CYCLONE
TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 60 H. WITH LIGHT WIND SHEAR, WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT,
THE CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR KARINA TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
KARINA IS AT THE EDGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE NOW, AND IS LIKELY TO
REACH THAT STATUS WELL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 H. MODELS STILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY GOOD SIGNAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 H, BUT THAT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE STRUCTURE
OF THE STORM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED. AFTER THIS WEEKEND, SHIPS
DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE CURRENT
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 16.4N 118.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 16.9N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 17.7N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 17.9N 125.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 18.3N 126.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 19.0N 128.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 20.4N 131.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 22.2N 133.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 292031
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 118.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 0SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 270SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 118.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 118.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.9N 120.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.7N 123.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.9N 125.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.3N 126.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.0N 128.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 20.4N 131.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 22.2N 133.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 291620

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 29.08.2026

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 134.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2026 0 12.8N 134.8W 1003 33
0000UTC 30.08.2026 12 12.9N 137.2W 1003 27
1200UTC 30.08.2026 24 12.7N 139.3W 1002 32
0000UTC 31.08.2026 36 12.6N 141.5W 1000 29
1200UTC 31.08.2026 48 12.7N 143.3W 999 32
0000UTC 01.09.2026 60 12.9N 145.4W 997 35
1200UTC 01.09.2026 72 13.0N 147.5W 993 41
0000UTC 02.09.2026 84 12.9N 149.5W 992 40
1200UTC 02.09.2026 96 12.9N 151.1W 990 44
0000UTC 03.09.2026 108 13.0N 152.7W 988 45
1200UTC 03.09.2026 120 13.3N 154.2W 986 48
0000UTC 04.09.2026 132 13.8N 155.5W 984 50
1200UTC 04.09.2026 144 13.7N 156.4W 982 53
0000UTC 05.09.2026 156 13.7N 156.8W 978 56
1200UTC 05.09.2026 168 14.0N 157.2W 974 65

TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 117.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2026 0 15.5N 117.3W 992 40
0000UTC 30.08.2026 12 17.1N 119.4W 988 46
1200UTC 30.08.2026 24 17.9N 121.9W 986 45
0000UTC 31.08.2026 36 18.3N 123.9W 985 44
1200UTC 31.08.2026 48 18.3N 125.6W 986 41
0000UTC 01.09.2026 60 18.6N 127.4W 985 40
1200UTC 01.09.2026 72 19.3N 128.7W 987 41
0000UTC 02.09.2026 84 20.4N 130.4W 989 42
1200UTC 02.09.2026 96 21.5N 131.9W 993 45
0000UTC 03.09.2026 108 22.7N 133.7W 997 45
1200UTC 03.09.2026 120 23.5N 135.7W 1000 42
0000UTC 04.09.2026 132 24.3N 137.1W 1002 42
1200UTC 04.09.2026 144 24.4N 139.2W 1003 36
0000UTC 05.09.2026 156 24.0N 141.1W 1005 28
1200UTC 05.09.2026 168 23.4N 143.6W 1007 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.0N 109.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2026 36 11.0N 109.0W 1005 27
1200UTC 31.08.2026 48 12.2N 109.5W 1006 24
0000UTC 01.09.2026 60 13.9N 111.7W 1005 28
1200UTC 01.09.2026 72 14.4N 114.4W 1005 25
0000UTC 02.09.2026 84 14.7N 116.3W 1004 26
1200UTC 02.09.2026 96 15.3N 118.6W 1005 25
0000UTC 03.09.2026 108 15.7N 120.1W 1004 27
1200UTC 03.09.2026 120 16.6N 121.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 04.09.2026 132 17.2N 123.4W 1003 29
1200UTC 04.09.2026 144 17.9N 125.1W 1002 34
0000UTC 05.09.2026 156 18.3N 127.1W 1001 29
1200UTC 05.09.2026 168 19.6N 129.0W 1001 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 21.8N 71.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2026 72 21.8N 71.4W 1007 39
0000UTC 02.09.2026 84 22.2N 73.0W 1003 41
1200UTC 02.09.2026 96 22.9N 75.2W 1002 40
0000UTC 03.09.2026 108 23.9N 77.4W 995 47
1200UTC 03.09.2026 120 25.2N 79.8W 989 56
0000UTC 04.09.2026 132 26.7N 81.7W 990 45
1200UTC 04.09.2026 144 28.1N 83.1W 987 55
0000UTC 05.09.2026 156 29.4N 83.0W 985 52
1200UTC 05.09.2026 168 30.7N 83.4W 989 44

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 291620

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 291434
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026

THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF KARINA SHOWS THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER IS
DISPLACED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BASED ON SOME OF THE MORE
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS WELL WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION DISPLAYED TO THE
NORTH. THE MOST RECENT TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T3.5/55 KT
AND THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CMISS ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 45-58 KT. AS SUCH, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT
55 KT.

THE STORM CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OF ABOUT 320/10 KT,
DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS THIS RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AND TAKE
OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FLOW. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK EXCEPT FOR A FEW NUDGES, AND IT
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HCCA GUIDANCE.

THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 60 H. WITH LIGHT WIND SHEAR,
WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE
ENVIRONMENT, THE CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR KARINA TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY. REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR
KARINA GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE CYCLONE WILL
NEED TO BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED FIRST. AFTER THIS WEEKEND, SHIPS
DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE
CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 15.6N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 16.5N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 17.2N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 17.5N 122.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/1200Z 17.8N 124.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 18.1N 125.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 18.7N 127.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 20.1N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 21.5N 132.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 291433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
800 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...KARINA MAINTAINS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 117.6W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 117.6 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), followed by a
more westerly motion over the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days.
Karina is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend and could
become a major hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 291433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 117.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 0SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 117.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 117.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.2N 120.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.5N 122.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.8N 124.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.1N 125.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.7N 127.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 20.1N 130.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N 132.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 117.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 290851
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

...KARINA MAINTAINS STRENGTH WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO MAJOR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 117.0W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 117.0 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), followed by a
more westerly motion over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days.
Karina is forecast to become a hurricane later today and could
become a major hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 290852
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2026

THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KARINA HAS REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED, WITH
A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BAND LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPART A
SLIGHT NORTHWARD TILT TO THE VORTEX, WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AND NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS
T3.5/55 KT, WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 55 KT.

KARINA CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OF ABOUT 310/10 KT,
DRIVEN BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN THIS RIDGE, ALLOWING THE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD AND TAKE
OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE HCCA GUIDANCE, ESSENTIALLY REMAINING UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR KARINA
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 60 H. DRIVEN BY LIGHT WIND SHEAR, WARM
SSTS, AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE STORM TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THIS IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHERE OVER 80
PERCENT OF MEMBERS BRING KARINA TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY. BEYOND
THE WEEKEND, SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 14.7N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.5N 118.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 16.5N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 16.9N 122.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 17.3N 123.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 17.6N 125.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 18.1N 127.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 19.3N 129.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 20.8N 132.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 290850
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 117.0W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 0SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 270SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 117.0W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 116.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.5N 118.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 30SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.5N 120.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 50SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.9N 122.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.3N 123.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 17.6N 125.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 19.3N 129.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.8N 132.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...115NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 117.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 290252
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...KARINA HOLDS STEADY AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WELL
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 116.3W
ABOUT 730 MI...1180 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 116.3 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next day or so, followed by
a more westward turn.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days.
Karina is forecast to become a hurricane by early Saturday and could
become a major hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Zelinsky

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 290252
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 116.3W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 0SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 116.3W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 115.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.1N 117.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.2N 119.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 17.3N 122.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 124.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 126.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 19.1N 129.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 20.6N 131.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 290252
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2026

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW KARINA WITH
DISTINCT, WELL-ORGANIZED SPIRAL BANDING AROUND A CENTRAL DENSE
CLOUDY INNER CORE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB, IS LINING UP WELL WITH THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 TO 60 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. BECAUSE OF THIS,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT.

KARINA IS ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OF 310/10 KT. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 H OR SO AS RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. KARINA IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOW SLIGHTLY
AND BE STEERED IN A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FIRST ERODES THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, AND ANOTHER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC QUICKLY BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD IN
ITS PLACE. THE OVERALL TRACK OF KARINA WAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, FOLLOWING THE HCCA GUIDANCE, BUT
THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
THEREAFTER REDUCING CONFIDENCE OF KARINA'S EXACT TRACK TOWARD THE
LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SHIPS GUIDANCE REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED, STILL SHOWCASING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 60 H OR SO.
GIVEN THE LIGHT SHEAR, WARM SSTS, AND MOISTURE-LADEN ATMOSPHERE,
KARINA HAS ALL THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY
STRENGTHEN TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM
GOOGLE DEEPMIND NOW FEATURES OVER 80 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOWING KARINA BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS
SHOW ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AFTER THE WEEKEND AND WEAKENING BECOMING BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 14.2N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 15.1N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 16.2N 119.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 17.3N 122.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 17.5N 124.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 18.0N 126.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 19.1N 129.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 20.6N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 282031
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2026

KARINA IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING AROUND A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF
THE CONVECTION, BUT THE DISTANCE IS DECREASING TO THE MID-LEVEL
CENTER. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 50
KT, AND GIVEN THE KNOWN LOW BIAS OF ASCAT, THE INTENSITY IS SET TO
55 KT, WHICH ALSO MATCHES THE LATEST TAFB CLASSIFICATION.

KARINA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT. THERE ARE NO
CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO REPORT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD. THIS
EVOLUTION FORCES KARINA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD THIS
WEEKEND. A BEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE RIDGE BEING WEAKENED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST
ADVISORY, AND THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, NEAR
THE LATEST HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) MODEL.

THERE IS SOME INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT KARINA WILL BECOME A
STRONG HURRICANE WITH SIGNS OF INNER-CORE ALIGNMENT ONGOING. GIVEN
THE LIGHT SHEAR, IT SEEMS VERY LIKELY THAT SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS WILL BECOME POSITIONED FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN OTHERWISE CONDUCIVE LARGE-SCALE
CONDITIONS. THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE LAST ONE, AND
COULD BE CONSERVATIVE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY GIVEN RISING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PROBABILITIES FROM SHIPS AND DTOPS. WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN IN 4 DAYS OR SO DUE TO THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER THE
COOLING WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 13.7N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 14.6N 116.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 15.9N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 16.9N 120.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 17.5N 121.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 17.9N 123.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 18.2N 125.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 19.1N 128.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 20.0N 130.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 282030
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...KARINA STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL MAJOR
HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 115.5W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 115.5 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so,
followed by a more westward turn.

Satellite wind-data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Karina is
forecast to become a hurricane by early Saturday and could become a
major hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 282030
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 115.5W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 0SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 115.5W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 115.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.6N 116.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.9N 118.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.9N 120.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 180SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.5N 121.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 17.9N 123.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 19.1N 128.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 20.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 281444
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026

...KARINA LIKELY TO BECOME A LARGE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 115.0W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 115.0 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so,
followed by a more westward turn.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast and Karina is likely to become a hurricane
over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula
this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 281444
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2026

IT IS A BIT CHALLENGING TO FIND THE CENTER OF KARINA THIS MORNING
ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE NEAR A
NEW CONVECTIVE BURST ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CLOUD ENVELOPE.
A RECENT GMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A TILTED STRUCTURE, WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER A BIT SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CORE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.

KARINA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD, CAUSING
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD THIS
WEEKEND. A BEND BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE RIDGE BEING ERODED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THERE IS A
SUBTLE SOUTHWARD AND LEFTWARD GUIDANCE CHANGE ON THIS CYCLE, AND THE
NEW FORECAST MOVES IN THAT DIRECTION, CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST
HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDMI)
AIDS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION,
THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE IS STILL BROAD AND MISALIGNED. GIVEN THE
LOW SHEAR, THE INNER CORE SHOULD EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE, BUT THE
TIMING ON THIS ALIGNMENT IS HARD TO FORECAST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS
COME DOWN SOMEWHAT ON THIS CYCLE, THERE'S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO
STAY ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE, JUST BELOW THE HCCA MODEL,
UNTIL BETTER EVIDENCE EMERGES THAT IT WILL STRUGGLE MORE LIKE THE
REGIONAL HURRICANE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 14.1N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 15.6N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 16.7N 119.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 17.6N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 18.0N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 18.3N 124.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 19.1N 127.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 20.2N 130.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 281443
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 115.0W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 115.0W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.1N 116.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.6N 117.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.7N 119.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.6N 121.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.0N 123.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.3N 124.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 19.1N 127.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 20.2N 130.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 115.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 280836
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
200 AM MST Fri Aug 28 2026

...KARINA FORECAST TO BECOME A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 114.3W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 114.3 West. Karina is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days
followed by a turn more westward.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast and Karina is likely to become a hurricane
over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin to
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 280837
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
200 AM MST FRI AUG 28 2026

KARINA'S STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TONIGHT IS SLOWLY EVOLVING,
WITH A CONCENTRATED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES BELOW -80 C OCCURRING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTER. HOWEVER, SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA AROUND 05 UTC INDICATED
THAT THE CENTER WAS STILL ON THE EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE BURST, AND
REMAINS A BIT ELONGATED ON ITS SOUTHWEST END, WHERE THE CYCLONE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE LARGER MONSOON TROUGH. THE PEAK WIND RETRIEVAL
WAS 41 KT, AND THAT COMBINED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SUBJECTIVE
OR OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS MAINTAINING 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST HEADING AT
310/11 KT. AN ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREAFTER, THIS RIDGING BEGINS TO EXTEND MORE ZONALLY TO THE NORTH
OF KARINA, ALLOWING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD
IN THE 48-72 H TIME FRAME. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME ERODED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH COULD RESULT IN KARINA MAKING A TURN BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, AND THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED IN THIS DIRECTION, BLENDING THE
LATEST HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
(GDMI) AIDS.

KARINA'S WIND FIELD DIAGNOSED BY SCATTEROMETER EARLIER IS STILL
FAIRLY BROAD, AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A BIT MORE TIME FOR THE
CYCLONE TO DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BEYOND THE NEXT 24 H REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION,
WITH LOW SHEAR, WARM WATERS, AND A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST DEEP-LAYER
TROPOSPHERE. SHIPS-RII GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO INDICATE ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT ARE 4-5 TIMES THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. THUS, SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECASTED
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE, SHOWING A 110 KT PEAK IN ABOUT 72 H,
THOUGH THIS FORECAST IS STILL UNDER SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE (HCCA, GDMI) BUT ABOVE SOME OF THE HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODEL
GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE (HAFS-A/B). IN DAYS 4-5 KARINA SHOULD ENCOUNTER
A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
26 C ISOTHERM, AND WEAKENING IS SHOWN TO BEGIN BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 12.7N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 13.6N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 15.1N 116.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 16.5N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 17.5N 120.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 18.2N 122.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 18.4N 124.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 19.3N 127.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 280836
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 114.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 114.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 113.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.6N 115.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.1N 116.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 120.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.2N 122.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 18.4N 124.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 19.3N 127.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 114.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 280245
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
800 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

...TROPICAL STORM KARINA HAS STRENGTHENED A BIT...
...CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 112.7W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 112.7 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected to continue as Karina
is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin to
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Zelinsky

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 280244
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
800 PM MST THU AUG 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM KARINA HAS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY, INDICATED BY THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB, AND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS
SITTING AROUND 35 TO 45 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER
OF KARINA, WITH A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION IN PLACE. GIVEN THE
ABOVE, THE NHC INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.

KARINA'S INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS ALTERED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AS WELL, NOW SET AT 315/11 KT. THIS HEADING IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL DICTATE KARINA'S
MOTION PRIOR TO THE INTERVENTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BECAUSE OF THIS INTERACTION, AND AS SHOWCASED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY GDMI AND HCCA, KARINA'S TRACK WILL BEGIN TO
STEER MORE WESTWARD. THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF KARINA, WITH CONFIDENCE DECREASING AS
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TOWARD THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE ECMWF SHIPS INDICATES THAT KARINA REMAINS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS KARINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH A MOISTURE-LADEN
AREA WITH LOW SHEAR. SHIPS-RII CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
NEARLY 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 55 KT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS; A 10 PERCENT INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN
FACT, THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM GOOGLE DEEPMIND INDICATES A 60
PERCENT CHANCE THAT KARINA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT GIVEN KARINA CURRENTLY
LACKS A TIGHT INNER CORE, THE NHC FORECAST REFLECTS A SLOWER
INTENSIFICATION RATE. CONVERSELY, IF AN INNER CORE IS ESTABLISHED
SOONER, KARINA COULD INTENSIFY MUCH QUICKER THAN FORECAST. KARINA
IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN
WEAKENING BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 11.9N 112.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 12.9N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 14.3N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 15.7N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 17.0N 118.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 17.8N 120.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 18.3N 122.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 18.8N 125.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 20.2N 127.9W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 280242
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 112.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 50SE 0SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 112.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 112.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.9N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...190NE 80SE 30SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.3N 115.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 110SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.7N 117.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 110SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.0N 118.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 110SE 60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 18.3N 122.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 18.8N 125.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 20.2N 127.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 112.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 272046
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
200 PM MST THU AUG 27 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INVEST
EP93) HAS DEVELOPED A MORE ORGANIZED CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH BANDED
CONVECTION AROUND ITS CENTER. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSIS FROM TAFB WAS 2.5/2.5, WHICH REFLECTS THIS ORGANIZATION.
SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM AROUND 1600 UTC ALSO SHOWED A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED, BUT CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH MAX WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40
KT. BASED ON THIS, ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM
KARINA, WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE WAS SET AT 295/11 KT. KARINA IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
STAYING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US WILL DRIVE KARINA'S NORTHWESTWARD MOTION,
BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT KARINA'S TRACK MORE WESTWARD AROUND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 H ON KARINA'S
TRACK, THEN SHOW MORE SPREAD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
RIDGE'S INFLUENCE, THUS HINDERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS KARINA MOVES OVER WARM SSTS IN A
MOISTURE-RICH, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MODELS DEPICT A
STEADY INTENSIFICATION PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 72 H, BEFORE MOVING INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER SSTS AND REDUCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
SHIPS-RII CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NEARLY 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
A 55 KT INCREASE IN WINDS IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, INDICATING THAT
STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AT A FASTER RATE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE
STORM CURRENTLY LACKS A TIGHT INNER CORE, THE INITIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE, AND HAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED
THE HCCA FOR BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 11.1N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 12.2N 113.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 13.5N 114.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 14.9N 116.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 16.2N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 17.4N 119.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 18.1N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 18.6N 124.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 19.4N 127.4W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 272044
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026
200 PM MST Thu Aug 27 2026

...TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORMS WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 111.9W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 111.9 West. Karina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is anticipated, and Karina is forecast to become a
hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin to
affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Pierce/Zelinsky

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 272044
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 240SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 111.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.2N 113.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 40SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...230NE 70SE 30SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...220NE 90SE 40SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 90SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.4N 119.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...190NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.1N 121.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 18.6N 124.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 19.4N 127.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PIERCE/ZELINSKY=

Global Telecommunication Service

Measurements Levels