Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for LOWELL-26
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 110422

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 121.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2026 0 16.4N 121.7W 1002 31
1200UTC 11.09.2026 12 15.9N 124.6W 1002 31
0000UTC 12.09.2026 24 15.9N 127.1W 1001 31
1200UTC 12.09.2026 36 16.1N 129.2W 1002 29
0000UTC 13.09.2026 48 16.5N 131.5W 1002 29
1200UTC 13.09.2026 60 17.2N 133.3W 1003 29
0000UTC 14.09.2026 72 17.9N 135.3W 1003 32
1200UTC 14.09.2026 84 18.0N 137.7W 1004 34
0000UTC 15.09.2026 96 18.7N 140.3W 1005 30
1200UTC 15.09.2026 108 18.8N 143.1W 1007 30
0000UTC 16.09.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 169.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2026 0 28.9N 169.3W 1000 35
1200UTC 11.09.2026 12 28.8N 171.7W 1004 31
0000UTC 12.09.2026 24 30.1N 172.5W 1004 41
1200UTC 12.09.2026 36 32.5N 172.8W 999 46
0000UTC 13.09.2026 48 34.4N 175.9W 997 33
1200UTC 13.09.2026 60 33.0N 177.6W 1000 39
0000UTC 14.09.2026 72 32.6N 177.3W 999 32
1200UTC 14.09.2026 84 31.8N 178.4W 1003 26
0000UTC 15.09.2026 96 30.4N 178.0W 1004 29
1200UTC 15.09.2026 108 30.0N 177.0W 1004 30
0000UTC 16.09.2026 120 30.3N 177.3W 1005 32
1200UTC 16.09.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 17.0N 117.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2026 60 16.5N 118.1W 1006 24
0000UTC 14.09.2026 72 15.9N 119.1W 1005 26
1200UTC 14.09.2026 84 15.5N 120.5W 1004 33
0000UTC 15.09.2026 96 14.9N 122.9W 1003 30
1200UTC 15.09.2026 108 14.6N 124.6W 1003 32
0000UTC 16.09.2026 120 14.5N 127.5W 1002 31
1200UTC 16.09.2026 132 14.5N 130.2W 1002 30
0000UTC 17.09.2026 144 14.3N 133.1W 1002 30
1200UTC 17.09.2026 156 14.5N 135.8W 1003 30
0000UTC 18.09.2026 168 14.8N 138.6W 1003 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 32.1N 52.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2026 168 32.2N 52.4W 1016 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110422


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 110234
TCDCP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lowell Discussion Number 60
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026

It has now been roughly 24 hours since Lowell produced more than
just patches of deep convection on its northeast side. This activity
has lacked much organization over this time span, with continued
westerly vertical wind shear keeping the low-level circulation
exposed. Given that Lowell has lacked organized convection near its
center for about a day, and with most of the global and
hurricane-regional model guidance not showing a return of deep
convection for at least another 24 h, Lowell is being declared a
post-tropical cyclone this advisory. The maximum sustained winds
remain 45 kt, however, based on scatterometer data received after
the prior advisory.

The post-tropical low is still moving westward at 270/12 kt. Much of
the forecast reasoning has not changed despite the cyclone's status
change, with a deep-layer cutoff low expected to pick up the
post-tropical low, pinwheeling it around to the northwest, west,
then southward in the 24-72 h period. There continue to be
differences in the model guidance on how sharp of a cyclonic turn
around the upper-level low there will be, but ultimately the
guidance shows the post-tropical low being deposited back south
after the upper-level feature bypasses it to the east in 72-96 h.

As mentioned above, most of the model guidance does not show deep
convection returning near the post-tropical cyclone for the next day
or so. However, an upper-level cutoff low is still forecast to drop
southward and induce some sheared convection this weekend. However,
given the disorganized state of the post-tropical cyclone, this
brief period of favorable convective forcing does not appear to last
long enough for the system to redevelop into a tropical cyclone,
especially given that the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows
vertical wind shear remaining in the 30-40 kt range. After the
upper-level cutoff passes it by to the east, the low is expected to
slowly fill, with much of the model guidance showing the low opening
up into a trough by 120 h, which is now reflected in the NHC
forecast.

This is the final advisory on Lowell unless regeneration occurs. For
additional information on the post-tropical low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 29.0N 169.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/1200Z 29.2N 171.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 12/0000Z 30.6N 172.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 12/1200Z 32.7N 172.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 13/0000Z 34.0N 175.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 13/1200Z 33.6N 176.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/0000Z 32.9N 177.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 31.5N 176.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 110233
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST THU SEP 10 2026

...LOWELL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 169.9W
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM NW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 169.9 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH
(17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES (295 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER
FZPN01 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 110232
TCMCP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 60
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 169.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 80SE 0SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....540NE 240SE 270SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 169.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 169.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.2N 171.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.6N 172.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.7N 172.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.0N 175.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.6N 176.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 177.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 31.5N 176.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 169.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 102044
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 59
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 10 2026


Infrared satellite imagery over the last couple of hours depicts
Lowell's convection concentrated over a small area within its
northeastern quadrant. The system also appears heavily sheared, with
Lowell's low-level center exposed and displaced from the convection.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC provided
Lowell with a final T-number of 1.5 and 2.0, respectively, which
would put the intensity at around 25-30 kt. However, given the
earlier higher scatterometer winds, and some lingering convection
currently, the initial intensity was only lowered slightly to 45
kt.

The initial motion was estimated at 270/10 kt. Lowell continues to
be steered by a mid-level high pressure system centered to the
northeast, with a cutoff low based in the north central Pacific
expected to dive down and turn the system to the northwest heading
into the weekend. Lowell's forward motion is then expected to
decrease over the weekend as it finds itself wedged between two low-
to mid-level ridges. Track models continue to exhibit a wide spread
beyond 36 h, differing in both how the cutoff low alters Lowell's
track and how slow the storm motion becomes once it's centered
between the ridges. The official track forecast was little changed
across the first 36 h, with the main changes beyond that period.
Guidance generally pulls Lowell a little more northwestward toward
the cutoff low before drifting southward at a slow motion as Lowell
becomes more vertically shallow. This turn to the south was made
slightly wider to reflect the global model consensus.

Lowell remain in a hostile environment characterized by moderate
vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal SSTs. Despite
this environment, intensity guidance depicts a slight increase in
max winds around early Saturday morning, suggesting that the cutoff
low may briefly enhance Lowell's convection. Simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF, however, suggest that Lowell's
convection may wither before then, with post-tropical transition
potentially occurring before this interaction takes place. The
latest intensity forecast holds Lowell's intensity relatively steady
for the first day or so, before showing a brief increase in
intensity at 48 h. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected to
occur through early next week. The forecast has Lowell becoming
post-tropical in 60 h, a little earlier than the previous forecast,
though it remains possible this could occur even sooner than shown
here.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 29.0N 168.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 29.0N 170.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 29.6N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 31.2N 172.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 32.8N 173.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 33.9N 174.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/1800Z 33.8N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 32.9N 175.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z 31.0N 175.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 102043
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST THU SEP 10 2026

...LOWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 168.9W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM NW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.9 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD THIS
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES (295 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 102043
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....510NE 240SE 270SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.0N 170.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.6N 171.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.2N 172.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.8N 173.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.9N 174.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.8N 175.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 32.9N 175.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 31.0N 175.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 168.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 102041
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 59
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 10 2026


Infrared satellite imagery over the last couple of hours depicts
Lowell's convection concentrated over a small area within its
northeastern quadrant. The system also appears heavily sheared, with
Lowell's low-level center exposed and displaced from the convection.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC provided
Lowell with a final T-number of 1.5 and 2.0, respectively, which
would put the intensity at around 25-30 kt. However, given the
earlier higher scatterometer winds, and some lingering convection
currently, the initial intensity was only lowered slightly to 45
kt.

The initial motion was estimated at 270/10 kt. Lowell continues to
be steered by a mid-level high pressure system centered to the
northeast, with a cutoff low based in the north central Pacific
expected to dive down and turn the system to the northwest heading
into the weekend. Lowell's forward motion is then expected to
decrease over the weekend as it finds itself wedged between two low-
to mid-level ridges. Track models continue to exhibit a wide spread
beyond 36 h, differing in both how the cutoff low alters Lowell's
track and how slow the storm motion becomes once it's centered
between the ridges. The official track forecast was little changed
across the first 36 h, with the main changes beyond that period.
Guidance generally pulls Lowell a little more northwestward toward
the cutoff low before drifting southward at a slow motion as Lowell
becomes more vertically shallow. This turn to the south was made
slightly wider to reflect the global model consensus.

Lowell remain in a hostile environment characterized by moderate
vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal SSTs. Despite
this environment, intensity guidance depicts a slight increase in
max winds around early Saturday morning, suggesting that the cutoff
low may briefly enhance Lowell's convection. Simulated satellite
imagery from the GFS and ECMWF, however, suggest that Lowell's
convection may wither before then, with post-tropical transition
potentially occurring before this interaction takes place. The
latest intensity forecast holds Lowell's intensity relatively steady
for the first day or so, before showing a brief increase in
intensity at 48 h. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected to
occur through early next week. The forecast has Lowell becoming
post-tropical in 60 h, a little earlier than the previous forecast,
though it remains possible this could occur even sooner than shown
here.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 29.0N 168.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 29.0N 170.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 29.6N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 31.2N 172.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 32.8N 173.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 33.9N 174.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 13/1800Z 33.8N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 32.9N 175.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z 31.0N 175.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 102040
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 59
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....510NE 240SE 270SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 168.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.0N 170.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.6N 171.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.2N 172.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.8N 173.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.9N 174.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.8N 175.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 32.9N 175.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 31.0N 175.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 168.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 101622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 119.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2026 0 16.5N 119.0W 1004 29
0000UTC 11.09.2026 12 16.2N 122.0W 1003 31
1200UTC 11.09.2026 24 16.2N 124.6W 1002 31
0000UTC 12.09.2026 36 16.2N 127.3W 1001 32
1200UTC 12.09.2026 48 16.4N 129.4W 1001 30
0000UTC 13.09.2026 60 16.8N 131.8W 1001 31
1200UTC 13.09.2026 72 17.4N 133.7W 1001 31
0000UTC 14.09.2026 84 18.1N 135.7W 1001 34
1200UTC 14.09.2026 96 18.8N 137.8W 1001 41
0000UTC 15.09.2026 108 19.1N 139.5W 1002 36
1200UTC 15.09.2026 120 19.7N 142.0W 1004 32
0000UTC 16.09.2026 132 20.1N 143.7W 1006 31
1200UTC 16.09.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 166.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2026 0 29.2N 166.9W 995 48
0000UTC 11.09.2026 12 29.0N 169.4W 999 40
1200UTC 11.09.2026 24 29.2N 171.4W 1002 41
0000UTC 12.09.2026 36 30.6N 172.0W 1001 44
1200UTC 12.09.2026 48 33.1N 172.4W 995 45
0000UTC 13.09.2026 60 34.8N 175.9W 997 35
1200UTC 13.09.2026 72 34.1N 178.6W 1002 28
0000UTC 14.09.2026 84 32.7N 178.9W 1003 26
1200UTC 14.09.2026 96 31.7N 179.0W 1005 26
0000UTC 15.09.2026 108 30.4N 179.0W 1006 30
1200UTC 15.09.2026 120 28.8N 179.1W 1007 27
0000UTC 16.09.2026 132 27.6N 178.6W 1007 28
1200UTC 16.09.2026 144 27.0N 178.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 17.09.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 16.5N 120.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2026 84 16.5N 121.2W 1006 24
1200UTC 14.09.2026 96 15.2N 122.4W 1005 29
0000UTC 15.09.2026 108 14.6N 124.0W 1003 32
1200UTC 15.09.2026 120 14.2N 125.6W 1003 30
0000UTC 16.09.2026 132 13.7N 127.6W 1001 32
1200UTC 16.09.2026 144 13.6N 129.5W 1001 33
0000UTC 17.09.2026 156 13.0N 131.6W 1001 30
1200UTC 17.09.2026 168 13.8N 133.3W 1000 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 12.4N 111.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2026 156 12.3N 112.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 17.09.2026 168 13.6N 114.9W 1006 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101622


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 101434
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 58
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Sep 10 2026


Infrared satellite imagery over the last several hours suggests
that the convection over Lowell's northeastern quadrant is
degrading. Lowell's low-level center is also becoming increasingly
displaced from this convection. The last subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC both rated Lowell at 2.0/2.0
or 30 kt, however scatterometer data from 0700 UTC depicted max
winds closer to 55 kt. With Lowell's convection decreasing, the
initial intensity was lowered slightly to 50 kt.

The initial motion was estimated at 270/13 kt. Lowell's westward
motion continues to be steered by a mid-level high centered to its
north-northeast. Heading into the weekend, Lowell is forecast to
turn northwestward as it interacts with a cutoff low over the
north-central Pacific. After which, the storm will become wedged
between two mid-level highs, greatly inhibiting its forward motion.
The track models exhibit a wide spread in Lowell's motion beyond 36
h, with global models suggesting that the storm will more or less
remain stationary over the open central Pacific when it is caught
between the aforementioned mid-level highs. Because of this, little
was changed in the official track forecast, save for minor leftward
adjustments within the first 36 h given Lowell's due westward
initial motion.

Lowell is expected to remain in a hostile environment characterized
by moderate vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal
SSTs. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and the
ECMWF suggest that Lowell could become post-tropical within the next
24 h. The main complication, however, is that Lowell interacting
with the aforementioned cutoff low could work to re-invigorate
convection heading into the weekend. Because of this, forecasting
Lowell's intensity and post-tropical transition is difficult, as the
storm's environment favors steady weakening, but another flare-up of
convection from this cutoff low could keep the intensity steady
through the weekend. Therefore, Lowell's intensity forecast was kept
relatively steady through the first 48 h, followed by weakening late
this weekend into early next week. Lowell is ultimately anticipated
to dissipate after interacting with a frontal system early next
week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 29.1N 167.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 29.1N 169.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 29.2N 171.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 30.0N 172.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 31.7N 172.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 33.0N 173.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 33.1N 174.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 14/1200Z 32.4N 175.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z 31.0N 175.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 101433
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST THU SEP 10 2026

...LOWELL REMAINS A BROAD TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 167.7W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT LOWELL
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES (295 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB (29.18 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 101432
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 167.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 90SE 50SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....510NE 270SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 167.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 166.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.1N 169.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.2N 171.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 172.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.7N 172.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 33.0N 173.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.1N 174.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 32.4N 175.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 31.0N 175.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 167.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 057//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 057
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 29.1N 165.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.1N 165.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 29.2N 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 29.3N 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 30.1N 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 31.4N 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 33.0N 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 33.4N 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 32.8N 175.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.4N 175.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 29.1N 166.5W. 10SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 12E
(LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 532 NM NORTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 984 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z,
110400Z AND 111000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 100851
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 57
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 09 2026

Proxy-visible and infrared satellite images show that Lowell is
producing minimal convection on the northern side of the storm. The
center of the cyclone is exposed and based on water vapor imagery,
plenty of dry air has made its way to the center. Nonetheless, a
recent ASCAT pass showed a large area of 50-53 kt vectors to the
northwest of the center, indicating that Lowell was stronger than
previously estimated. Based on this data, the initial intensity has
been set to 55 kt.

The storm is continuing to move to the west around 280 degrees at 12
kt. Currently the cyclone is being guided by a low- to mid-level
ridge located to the north, which should keep it on this westward
heading for the next couple of days. After that, a mid- to
upper-level trough to the northwest is expected to cutoff and become
the main steering flow for Lowell. This should result in a northerly
turn for the storm as it interacts with the cutoff low around 36-48
h. As the cutoff low moves off to the east, Lowell should take up a
more westward motion for a short period of time. Then, once the
cutoff low pulls away completely, the shallow circulation of Lowell
will likely be stuck between two low-level ridges, thus leaving the
storm to drift slowly off to the south as a remnant low. The current
NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one, however there
were some small nudges made to the new track forecast after 36 h.
This prediction is close to the most recent Google DeepMind (GDMI)
and HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) aids.

The cyclone is expected to remain in a hostile environment with
moderate wind shear, plenty of dry air, and marginal SSTs.
Therefore, a gradual weakening trend is expected for the next 24 h.
Based on the simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF,
Lowell could lack enough convection to be considered a tropical
cyclone. However, some positive interaction with the previously
mentioned cutoff low could foster the development of new convection,
which in turn could allow for Lowell to maintain its intensity
through baroclinic processes. After 60-72 h, the cyclone will be on
the subsident side of the cutoff low, which will likely lead to the
storm becoming post-tropical as the convection dissipates. It should
be noted that there is a fair chance that the convection fails to
regenerate due to the dry air and shear, and thus Lowell could
become post-tropical sooner than forecast. The updated NHC intensity
forecast shows no net intensity change between 24-72 h, although
small fluctuations could occur as described above.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 29.2N 166.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 29.2N 168.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 29.3N 170.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 30.1N 171.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 31.4N 172.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 33.0N 172.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 33.4N 173.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 32.8N 175.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z 31.4N 175.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Katz/Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 100850
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 166.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 100SE 50SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....420NE 270SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 166.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 165.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N 168.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.3N 170.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.1N 171.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.4N 172.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.0N 172.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.4N 173.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 32.8N 175.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.4N 175.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 166.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 100850
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST WED SEP 09 2026

...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOWELL ADVANCES WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL
PACIFIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 166.2W
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM NW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN, THE
SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW LATE THIS WEEK AS IT
TURNS NORTHWESTWARD.

SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT LOWELL IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES (315 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/REINHART=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 100422

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 116.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2026 0 15.6N 116.6W 1005 26
1200UTC 10.09.2026 12 15.9N 119.2W 1005 29
0000UTC 11.09.2026 24 16.2N 122.1W 1004 30
1200UTC 11.09.2026 36 16.0N 124.6W 1004 30
0000UTC 12.09.2026 48 16.2N 127.5W 1003 28
1200UTC 12.09.2026 60 16.4N 130.1W 1003 27
0000UTC 13.09.2026 72 16.8N 132.3W 1003 27
1200UTC 13.09.2026 84 17.4N 134.6W 1005 25
0000UTC 14.09.2026 96 17.9N 136.7W 1005 27
1200UTC 14.09.2026 108 18.8N 138.5W 1006 26
0000UTC 15.09.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N 164.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2026 0 29.1N 164.4W 993 50
1200UTC 10.09.2026 12 29.2N 167.2W 997 46
0000UTC 11.09.2026 24 28.9N 169.7W 1001 36
1200UTC 11.09.2026 36 29.0N 171.9W 1004 36
0000UTC 12.09.2026 48 30.5N 171.9W 1001 43
1200UTC 12.09.2026 60 32.8N 172.3W 999 40
0000UTC 13.09.2026 72 34.7N 174.8W 999 35
1200UTC 13.09.2026 84 34.1N 177.1W 1004 24
0000UTC 14.09.2026 96 32.9N 177.6W 1005 22
1200UTC 14.09.2026 108 31.1N 176.7W 1006 20
0000UTC 15.09.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.2N 125.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2026 120 15.1N 125.9W 1005 24
1200UTC 15.09.2026 132 14.5N 128.1W 1005 28
0000UTC 16.09.2026 144 14.0N 130.1W 1004 27
1200UTC 16.09.2026 156 14.0N 132.0W 1004 28
0000UTC 17.09.2026 168 13.8N 134.5W 1003 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100422


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 100232
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 56
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Sep 09 2026

Lowell's convective structure on satellite imagery is not very
impressive, consisting of a well-defined low-level swirl with some
colder cloud tops attempting to form on the northeast side of the
circulation. The storm is clearly being negatively impacted by
moderate westerly shear importing nearby dry air and marginally warm
sea-surface temperatures. Scatterometer data received after the
prior advisory indicated a robust surface wind field remains, with
peak wind-retrievals in the 45 to 50 kt range. However, subjective
and objective satellite estimates continue to decrease, and assuming
the low-level circulation continues to spin down without much deep
convection, the initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory.

The tropical cyclone has turned westward, with the estimated motion
now 280 degrees at 12 kt. Lowell is now being steered primarily by a
low- to mid-level ridge located north of the tropical storm, and
this should maintain a general westward motion over the next 24-36
h. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough located northwest
of Lowell is anticipated to cutoff and interact with the cyclone,
with the track guidance coming into better agreement that this will
lead to a sharp turn to the northwest or north in 60-72 h. By the
end of the forecast period, the upper-level cutoff low moves east
of Lowell, leaving behind a shallow low-level circulation sandwiched
between two low-level ridges. The track guidance responds to this
change by indicating a slow southward drift as the cyclone becomes a
remnant low. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the prior one
for the first 2-3 days, but shows a sharper turn southward
by the end of the forecast. This track is closest to the Google
DeepMind (GDMI) and HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) aids.

Moderate westerly vertical wind shear, abundant dry air, and only
marginally warm sea-surface temperatures are likely to lead to
further weakening over the next 36 h. In fact, Lowell could struggle
to produce enough convection to be considered a tropical cyclone
during this period. Nonetheless, the aforementioned trough
interaction in the 2-3 day time frame will likely reinvigorate some
convection on the storm's down-shear side via baroclinic processes,
which could help intensify Lowell's wind field. Most of the
intensity guidance shows at least some intensification during this
period of interaction, and the NHC intensity forecast was adjusted
somewhat to reflect this solution, though it remains below the
HAFS-A/B hurricane models. After 72 h, the upper-level low
interacting with Lowell will pass it to the east, leaving the storm
in an area of enhanced subsidence that will likely diminish the
remaining convection when the storm will be over sub-26 C SSTs.
Thus, the latest NHC forecast still shows Lowell becoming a
post-tropical low in 96 h. There is still a healthy amount of track
uncertainty towards the end of the forecast, though the guidance is
coming into better agreement on Lowell losing its tropical
characteristics by this time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 29.2N 165.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 29.3N 167.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 29.2N 169.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 29.4N 171.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 30.6N 172.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 32.2N 172.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 33.3N 173.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 32.8N 175.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z 31.6N 175.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 100232
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 165.1W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......170NE 100SE 50SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....450NE 300SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 165.1W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 164.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.3N 167.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.2N 169.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.4N 171.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.6N 172.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.2N 172.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 33.3N 173.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 32.8N 175.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N 175.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 165.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 100232
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST WED SEP 09 2026

...LOWELL TURNING WESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 165.1W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM NW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN, THE
SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW LATE THIS WEEK AS IT
TURNS BACK NORTHWESTWARD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES (315 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB (29.27 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 092035
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 55
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 09 2026

Lowell is dealing with moderate wind shear and dry air. Recent
satellite imagery reveals that earlier deep convection has
collapsed, with only shallow convection remaining sheared to the
eastern side of the circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from PHFO and JTWC have decreased to T2.5/35 kt,
which is consistent with the system's degraded satellite
presentation. UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates currently range
from 39 to 49 kt. Metop-B and Metop-C scatterometer passes are
anticipated over Lowell near the advisory time, which will help
better assess the current intensity and wind radii structure.
Although current satellite estimates have decreased, the initial
intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory, which may be generous.
Subsequent adjustments will await the incoming scatterometer wind
data.

Lowell is expected to remain within a dry environment with moderate
vertical wind shear. Model-simulated infrared imagery suggests that
Lowell will continue to produce intermittent bursts of deep
convection over the next several days, aided by some upper-level
divergence in about 48 hours. The official NHC intensity forecast
follows the latest consensus model guidance, depicting a gradual
weakening of the system throughout the forecast period. By the end
of the period, the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler sea
surface temperatures while continuing to deal with dry air and
moderate shear. Although some uncertainty remains late in the period
due to the system's eventual track and intermittent convective
bursts, these hostile environmental conditions should cause Lowell
to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 320/12 kt. Lowell should
gradually turn west-northwestward and then westward, steered by a
building mid-level ridge to the north and east. In a few days, the
cyclone is forecast to round the western periphery of the ridge and
slow forward speed. This decrease in forward speed will occur as the
steering pattern collapses, leaving Lowell caught between
high-pressure ridges over the northwestern and northeastern Pacific.
Track model guidance begins to diverge considerably late in the
period. This spread in the guidance largely depends on the vertical
depth of the cyclone, and if the system remains a shallow low, it
could begin to move southwestward, steered by the low-level flow on
the eastern edge of the northwestern Pacific ridge. The official NHC
track forecast lies near the HCCA and GDMI consensus aids in the
near term, and then shifts toward the simple consensus later in the
period, reflecting the higher uncertainty toward the end of the
forecast cycle.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 28.9N 163.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 29.3N 165.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 29.3N 168.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 29.3N 170.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 29.9N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 30.9N 171.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 32.3N 172.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 33.2N 174.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 14/1800Z 32.7N 176.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 092033
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST WED SEP 09 2026

...LOWELL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 163.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM NNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST IS FORECAST TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN, THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
LATER THIS WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES (335 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 092033
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 163.7W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....450NE 300SE 300SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 163.7W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 163.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.3N 165.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 80SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.3N 168.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.3N 170.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.9N 171.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.9N 171.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.3N 172.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 33.2N 174.8W...POST-TROPICAL
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091624

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 28.0N 162.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2026 0 28.0N 162.0W 986 52
0000UTC 10.09.2026 12 29.1N 164.4W 991 50
1200UTC 10.09.2026 24 29.4N 167.0W 995 49
0000UTC 11.09.2026 36 29.4N 169.3W 999 41
1200UTC 11.09.2026 48 30.2N 171.4W 1001 48
0000UTC 12.09.2026 60 31.9N 171.5W 993 49
1200UTC 12.09.2026 72 34.8N 173.2W 991 51
0000UTC 13.09.2026 84 34.2N 177.4W 996 35
1200UTC 13.09.2026 96 33.1N 177.3W 996 41
0000UTC 14.09.2026 108 32.9N 177.6W 999 28
1200UTC 14.09.2026 120 32.3N 177.6W 1002 23
0000UTC 15.09.2026 132 31.6N 176.2W 1003 29
1200UTC 15.09.2026 144 31.9N 174.6W 1003 29
0000UTC 16.09.2026 156 33.3N 174.5W 1003 33
1200UTC 16.09.2026 168 32.0N 176.6W 1005 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 16.5N 131.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2026 84 16.4N 132.6W 1005 24
1200UTC 13.09.2026 96 16.9N 134.3W 1005 25
0000UTC 14.09.2026 108 17.3N 136.6W 1005 29
1200UTC 14.09.2026 120 17.7N 139.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 15.09.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 15.1N 124.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2026 144 15.1N 125.3W 1005 26
0000UTC 16.09.2026 156 14.6N 127.3W 1004 27
1200UTC 16.09.2026 168 14.7N 130.5W 1004 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091624


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 091440
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 54
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Sep 09 2026

Infrared satellite imagery over the last several hours suggest that
Lowell's convective shield is continuing to deteriorate as drier air
wraps into the storm's core. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from HFO and JTWC classified the system at T3.0/45 kt,
while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged from 44-51 kt. Using
these estimates and the latest satellite trends, the initial
intensity was lowered to 50 kt.

The initial motion is north-northwestward at 330/11 kt. A mid-level
low centered over the north-central Pacific, along with high
pressure to its east, is driving Lowell's north-northwestward
motion. As the low dissipates, Lowell is expected to turn
west-northwestward or westward along the southern flank of the high,
then back toward the northwest as it rounds the western edge of the
high. The track guidance exhibits significant spread late this week
and into the weekend as Lowell becomes wedged between two mid-level
ridges, resulting in a weak steering environment. Thus, the latest
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, near the
middle of the guidance envelope but given the spread there is low
confidence in the extended forecast.

Although the SHIPS guidance indicates that sea surface temperatures
will remain relatively steady over the next 48 h, a dry mid-level
environment and moderate vertical wind shear should induce gradual
weakening. The intensity guidance generally depicts further
weakening over the next 36 h, followed by a slight increase in
intensity over the weekend when the aforementioned mid-level low
could briefly enhance Lowell's convection. However, because the
broader environment remains hostile, the NHC intensity forecast
shows gradual weakening through the entire period, with the
intensity merely leveling off just after 36 h during the anticipated
window of favorable trough interaction. The official NHC intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and Lowell is
still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone early next week.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 28.1N 162.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 28.8N 164.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 29.0N 166.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 28.8N 168.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 28.9N 170.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 29.6N 171.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 31.0N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 32.7N 173.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 34.0N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 091439
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST WED SEP 09 2026

...LOWELL REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 162.3W
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM NNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 162.3 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST IS FORECAST TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. THEN, THE SYSTEM'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
LATER THIS WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES (405 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 091438
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 162.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......220NE 140SE 110SW 180NW.
4 M SEAS....450NE 330SE 330SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 162.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 161.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 28.8N 164.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.0N 166.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 60SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.8N 168.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.9N 170.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.6N 171.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 171.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 32.7N 173.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 34.0N 175.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 162.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 090851
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 53
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 08 2026

Proxy-visible satellite and water vapor imagery show that Lowell has
continued to deteriorate as the cyclone has been adversely affected
by dry air and wind shear. The center of the cyclone has moved
underneath an area of deep convection that has formed recently,
however the bulk of the convection is on the northern side of the
circulation. Recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are 45-55
kt, while the objective intensity estimates are lower in the range
of 41-46 kt. Since earlier scatterometer data showed stronger winds
than suggested by the satellite estimates, the initial intensity is
only lowered to 55 kt for this advisory.

Lowell is currently moving northward around 12 kt, as the storm is
being guided by a mid-level low to the northwest and a ridge from
the north-northeast. On Wednesday, a more gradual shift towards the
northwest should occur as high pressure builds in from the north.
The storm is then expected to lose speed on Thursday as the cyclone
becomes more shallow and lower-level flow becomes more dominant.
There is a good degree of uncertainty in the track around 72 h, as
Lowell approaches another upper-level low from the northwest. The
guidance generally has the cyclone turning to the north or
north-northwest around Friday and into the weekend. There is a large
spread in the guidance about the timing and how far north the storm
will go. Given the spread in the track models, there is a higher
than normal uncertainty in the long-range NHC track forecast. This
forecast is similar to the previous prediction, but nudged to the
right based on the latest consensus aids.

Lowell is expected to remain in a hostile environment with moderate
wind shear and dry air, thus a gradual weakening trend is expected
to occur. The simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF
indicate that Lowell could lose most of its deep convection by
Thursday, and potentially become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday.
However, the previously mentioned second upper-level low could help
Lowell build some deep convection late Friday into Saturday. This in
turn could cause some slight strengthening of the storm, but there
is uncertainty regarding the stucture of Lowell at that time.
Therefore, there is a good degree of uncertainty with this portion
of the intensity forecast. The current NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous prediction and calls for Lowell to become a
post-tropical remnant low around day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.

2. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed
coasts of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 27.3N 161.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 28.4N 162.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 29.0N 165.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 28.8N 167.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 28.7N 169.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 29.1N 171.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 30.3N 171.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 32.6N 173.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 33.6N 174.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Katz/Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 090849
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 161.5W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......220NE 140SE 110SW 180NW.
4 M SEAS....390NE 270SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 161.5W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 161.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.4N 162.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 130SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 29.0N 165.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 110SE 60SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.8N 167.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 80SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.7N 169.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 40SE 30SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.1N 171.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.3N 171.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 32.6N 173.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 33.6N 174.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 161.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 090849
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 08 2026

...LOWELL WEAKENING AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 161.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM NNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 161.5 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A SLOW TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THEN WEST IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THEN, A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 MILES (405 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB (28.97 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALONG
EXPOSED COASTS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/REINHART=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 090422

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 25.8N 160.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2026 0 25.8N 160.8W 980 50
1200UTC 09.09.2026 12 27.8N 162.2W 988 50
0000UTC 10.09.2026 24 28.9N 164.5W 992 51
1200UTC 10.09.2026 36 29.0N 167.2W 997 45
0000UTC 11.09.2026 48 28.9N 169.9W 1001 38
1200UTC 11.09.2026 60 29.4N 172.1W 1002 39
0000UTC 12.09.2026 72 30.4N 172.1W 997 48
1200UTC 12.09.2026 84 33.2N 172.4W 995 43
0000UTC 13.09.2026 96 35.2N 176.1W 999 34
1200UTC 13.09.2026 108 33.0N 178.2W 1003 28
0000UTC 14.09.2026 120 32.6N 175.1W 1002 25
1200UTC 14.09.2026 132 32.4N 175.5W 1003 22
0000UTC 15.09.2026 144 32.5N 174.8W 1004 25
1200UTC 15.09.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 16.8N 133.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2026 96 17.1N 134.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 13.09.2026 108 17.7N 137.1W 1006 30
0000UTC 14.09.2026 120 18.1N 139.9W 1005 29
1200UTC 14.09.2026 132 18.5N 142.3W 1007 29
0000UTC 15.09.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 17.1N 122.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2026 108 17.0N 122.2W 1007 20
0000UTC 14.09.2026 120 17.5N 122.2W 1006 25
1200UTC 14.09.2026 132 17.0N 122.8W 1006 22
0000UTC 15.09.2026 144 17.5N 123.3W 1005 25
1200UTC 15.09.2026 156 17.6N 125.6W 1006 26
0000UTC 16.09.2026 168 17.2N 127.7W 1006 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090422


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 090241
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 52
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Sep 08 2026

The structure of Lowell continues to deteriorate this afternoon as
dry mid-level air and wind shear affect the tropical storm. The
low-level center of circulation is now almost completely exposed,
with deep convection displaced well to the north. In addition, a
strong mid-level low is interacting with Lowell and is contributing
to southwesterly to westerly wind shear across the system. Recent
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 55 to 65 kt, while
objective estimates are somewhat lower, generally between 46 and 50
kt. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt for this advisory. An
earlier scatterometer pass also provided valuable guidance in
refining Lowell's wind radii.

Lowell is moving northward around 13 kt, steered primarily by the
aforementioned mid-level low to the northwest and ridging to the
north-northeast. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected
tonight through Wednesday as the low interacts with Lowell and high
pressure builds to the north. The storm is forecast to slow down on
Thursday as Lowell becomes increasingly shallow and begins to move
more in response to the low-level flow. The track forecast becomes
considerably more complex beyond 72 h as Lowell encounters another
elongated upper-low approaching from the northwest. Most model
guidance indicates that Lowell should turn toward the north or
northwest late this week into this weekend, but there is
considerable spread in the guidance regarding both the timing of
this turn and how far north the cyclone will ultimately track. The
latest NHC forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance
envelope and is close to the previous track, with the forecast lying
closest to HCCA and the Google DeepMind solutions.

Moderate wind shear and unfavorable upper-level winds will continue
to support gradual weakening of Lowell over the next several days.
Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that
Lowell could struggle to maintain organized deep convection by
Thursday, potentially bringing the cyclone closer to becoming
post-tropical on Friday. However, the second elongated upper-level
low pressure system may help reinvigorate convection late Friday
into Saturday, which could provide an opportunity for slight
strengthening during that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
very close to the previous advisory and calls for Lowell to become a
post-tropical remnant low around day 5. Confidence in the
longer-range track and intensity forecast is lower than average.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.

2. The threat of locally moderate to heavy rainfall associated with
Lowell will linger over parts of the eastern Hawaiian Islands into
Wednesday. This may result in additional flooding of urban and
low-lying portions of the Big Island and may promote instances of
new flooding or prolong any ongoing flooding elsewhere across the
Islands.

3. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed
coasts of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 26.2N 161.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 27.7N 162.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 28.7N 164.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 28.8N 166.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 28.5N 169.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 28.5N 170.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 29.1N 171.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 31.8N 172.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 32.9N 175.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 090240
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 161.1W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......220NE 140SE 110SW 180NW.
4 M SEAS....390NE 300SE 360SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 161.1W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 160.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.7N 162.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 130SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 28.7N 164.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 110SE 60SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.8N 166.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...170NE 80SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.5N 169.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 40SE 30SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.5N 170.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.1N 171.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 172.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 175.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 161.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 082033
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 08 2026

Lowell's structure has significantly degraded during the day, with
the center exposed on the southern side of the circulation, well
removed from a disheveled area of deep convection. Satellite
estimates are basically falling as fast as the Dvorak rules (or
continuity) allow, and the initial intensity is set to 65 kt as a
blend of all the data. A scatterometer pass should be available for
the next advisory to see how much weakening has actually occurred.

The hurricane is still moving northward, now at about 13 kt. Model
guidance is in better agreement during the next couple of days on
Lowell bending leftward and slowing down, turning westward on
Thursday. This evolution is due to the current mid-tropospheric
trough over the Central Pacific weakening as a mid-level ridge to
builds in to the north. A faster northwest motion is expected on
Friday as Lowell interacts with another mid-latitude trough, though
the model spread grows by the weekend. The new forecast is close to
the previous forecast, on the southerly side of the guidance
envelope, but isn't particularly confident due to the trough
interaction.

A continued slow weakening of Lowell is anticipated for the next
several days while the system moves over marginally warm SSTs,
within a dry, moderate shear environment. The system will likely
struggle to produce deep convection by Thursday, and Lowell could
be close to becoming a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. However,
the next trough will probably re-energize the deep convection and
cause a slight re-strengthening over the weekend. The only
NHC forecast change of note is that much of the guidance is showing
Lowell either as frontal or without convection by day 5, so
post-tropical is indicated then. Similar to the track forecast,
the intensity forecast is uncertain at the end.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials and avoid
areas of downed power lines and flooding. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.

2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will linger
over the eastern Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday. This may
produce areas of flooding for urban and low-lying regions, with
significant flash flooding and mudslides possible across portions of
the Big Island.

3. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed
coasts of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 25.1N 160.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 26.8N 161.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 28.4N 162.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 28.9N 165.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 28.6N 168.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 28.3N 170.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 28.6N 171.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 31.0N 172.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 32.5N 174.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 082032
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2026

...FLASH FLOODING THREAT REMAINS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DUE TO
LOWELL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 160.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM NNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.8 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS FORECAST THROUGH TODAY, TAKING THE CORE OF LOWELL FARTHER FROM
KAUAI COUNTY. LOWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST AND SLOW DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTER PASSING THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES
(335 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB (28.91 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS OF 24 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO
6 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU AND MAUI COUNTIES, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THIS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING FOR URBAN AND LOW-LYING REGIONS,
WITH SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

FOR A LIST OF RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS (AND WIND REPORTS) ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE LOWELL, SEE THE COMPANION STORM SUMMARY AT WBCSCCNS4
WITH THE WMO HEADER ACUS42 KWBC OR AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/NFDSCC4.HTML

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS MANY
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 082031
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 160.8W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 110NW.
34 KT.......180NE 140SE 110SW 180NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 330SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 160.8W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 160.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.8N 161.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.4N 162.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.9N 165.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 80SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.6N 168.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 40SE 20SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.3N 170.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.6N 171.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 081746
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 50A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2026

...FLASH FLOODING RISK REMAINS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DUE TO
LOWELL...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 160.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM NNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.7 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST THROUGH TODAY, TAKING THE CORE OF LOWELL FARTHER FROM
KAUAI COUNTY. LOWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST AND SLOW DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTER PASSING THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND LOWELL SHOULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES (370 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB (28.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS OF 24 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO
6 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU AND MAUI COUNTIES, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: WATER LEVELS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE COASTS OF
NIIHAU, KAUAI, AND OAHU DUE TO LARGE WAVES, AND WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS MANY
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 081621

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.4N 127.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2026 0 25.4N 127.3W 997 30
0000UTC 09.09.2026 12 26.7N 128.0W 1000 28
1200UTC 09.09.2026 24 28.8N 129.2W 1004 28
0000UTC 10.09.2026 36 31.3N 131.0W 1009 26
1200UTC 10.09.2026 48 33.2N 133.6W 1014 23
0000UTC 11.09.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 160.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2026 0 23.0N 160.7W 963 68
0000UTC 09.09.2026 12 26.1N 160.7W 980 51
1200UTC 09.09.2026 24 28.2N 162.2W 989 46
0000UTC 10.09.2026 36 29.3N 164.7W 995 48
1200UTC 10.09.2026 48 29.4N 167.4W 1000 43
0000UTC 11.09.2026 60 29.3N 170.0W 1004 34
1200UTC 11.09.2026 72 29.6N 172.3W 1006 34
0000UTC 12.09.2026 84 30.2N 173.3W 1005 39
1200UTC 12.09.2026 96 31.9N 172.4W 1005 31
0000UTC 13.09.2026 108 34.0N 174.5W 998 37
1200UTC 13.09.2026 120 32.2N 175.0W 1001 27
0000UTC 14.09.2026 132 31.6N 174.5W 1002 23
1200UTC 14.09.2026 144 31.4N 173.4W 1003 23
0000UTC 15.09.2026 156 31.9N 172.4W 1005 22
1200UTC 15.09.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.8N 21.0E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2026 132 35.8N 21.0E 1008 31
1200UTC 14.09.2026 144 38.7N 24.0E 1007 27
0000UTC 15.09.2026 156 40.5N 24.6E 1007 27
1200UTC 15.09.2026 168 39.6N 22.6E 1008 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 11.8N 127.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2026 168 11.8N 127.1W 1004 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081621


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 081449
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 50
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Sep 08 2026

Lowell is quickly weakening. Satellite images indicate that the
center is exposed on the southern side of a decreasing area of deep
convection. While recent flight-level aircraft wind data did not
show much weakening aloft, dropsondes suggested that these high
winds were not making it to the surface as typical, probably due to
the lack of local convection. The initial wind speed is set to 80
kt, a compromise of higher aircraft data and lower satellite fixes
from JTWC and HFO.

The hurricane is moving quickly northward at about 16 kt. Lowell
should gradually turn westward and slow down during the next couple
of days as the mid- to upper-level trough steering the hurricane
weakens and a mid-level ridge to builds in to the north. At
long-range, another trough is forecast to interact with Lowell,
which could cause it to accelerate to the northwest. The new track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, close to the
latest Google DeepMind and HCCA aids.

Lowell should continue to quickly weaken today due to high shear,
likely becoming a tropical storm by the evening. A slow weakening
is expected then through late week due to marginally warm waters and
some shear, and Lowell could be close to becoming a post-tropical
cyclone on Friday. However, the next trough could re-energize the
deep convection, with a fair number of models showing modest
re-strengthening over the weekend. The new forecast is reduced in
the short term due to the poor initial structure, then is blended
with the previous one. The end of the forecast should be considered
very uncertain given the aforementioned trough interaction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Kauai County: Hurricane conditions will continue for the next few
hours, with the highest winds atop mountains and on windward and
leeward slopes, causing widespread power outages. If you use a
generator, be sure it is placed at least 20 feet away from doors,
windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning.

2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will
continue over the Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday. This may
produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across
Kauai county and portions of the Big Island.

3. Oahu: Tropical storm conditions are expected for the next few
hours. Strong wind gusts could cause downed trees and power outages,
especially in areas of higher terrain.

4. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed
coasts of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 23.7N 160.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 25.8N 160.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 27.7N 161.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 28.6N 164.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.6N 166.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 28.0N 169.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 28.0N 170.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 29.3N 171.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 32.5N 174.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 081447
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2026

...FLASH FLOODING IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS CONTINUES WITH LOWELL...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 160.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.7 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
FORECAST THROUGH TODAY, TAKING THE CORE OF LOWELL FARTHER FROM
KAUAI COUNTY. LOWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST AND SLOW DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTER PASSING THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND LOWELL SHOULD BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES (370 KM). LIHUE AIRPORT (PHLI) ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF KAUAI RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH (56 KM/H) WITH
A GUST TO 47 MPH (76 KM/H).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB (28.56 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KAUAI
COUNTY. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD SIDES OF
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS,
ARE OCCURRING ON OAHU.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS OF 24 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO
6 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU AND MAUI COUNTIES, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: WATER LEVELS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE COASTS OF
NIIHAU, KAUAI, AND OAHU DUE TO LARGE WAVES, AND WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE AFTER THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS MANY
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 081447
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 160.7W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 55SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 90SE 80SW 130NW.
34 KT.......190NE 150SE 120SW 200NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 330SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 160.7W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 160.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.8N 160.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 90SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.7N 161.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 28.6N 164.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 80SE 40SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.6N 166.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.0N 169.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.0N 170.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 29.3N 171.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 32.5N 174.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 160.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 081153
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 49A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2026

...CORE OF LOWELL MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NIIHAU...
...DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND POWERFUL WAVES STILL
IMPACTING KAUAI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 160.8W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 22.9
NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.8 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
18 MPH (30 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH TODAY,
TAKING THE CORE OF LOWELL FARTHER FROM KAUAI COUNTY. LOWELL IS THEN
FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST AND SLOW DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTER PASSING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES (315 KM). LIHUE AIRPORT (PHLI) ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
KAUAI RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH A
GUST TO 75 MPH (121 KM/H). DANIEL K INOUYE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
(PHNL) IN HONOLULU RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 43 MPH (69 KM/H).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB (28.50 INCHES)
BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE DATA.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KAUAI
COUNTY. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD SIDES OF
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS,
ARE OCCURRING ON OAHU.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

RAINFALL: LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 24 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...2-4 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED VALUES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF KAUAI AND THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAUAI AND NIIHAU
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS MANY
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 049//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 049
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 21.1N 161.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 161.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.1N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.3N 160.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.7N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.2N 164.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.0N 167.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.9N 169.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 29.0N 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 30.5N 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 160.8W.
08SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 080852
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 49
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 07 2026

Dangerous Hurricane Lowell is passing near the island of Niihau.
Barking Sands and Lihue Airport on Kauai have reported wind gusts to
hurricane force during the past few hours, and tropical-storm-force
gusts have occurred at several locations on Oahu. The structure of
Lowell continues to be affected by the strong wind shear that an
upper trough is imparting on the system. Aircraft data and WSF-M
passive microwave images show the vortex is tilted toward the north
with height, and Air Force Hurricane Hunter reports indicate the
eyewall remains open. The central pressure has gradually risen
tonight. However, the previous aircraft mission reported 700-mb
flight-level winds up to 106 kt underneath cold cloud tops to the
northwest of Lowell's center, which is the basis for maintaining the
95-kt intensity. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will continue
to investigate Lowell through the overnight hours.

The hurricane is moving quickly north-northeastward (020/16 kt). The
core of Lowell will pass near or just west of Niihau during the next
several hours before tracking slightly more northward later on
Tuesday. The mid- to upper-level trough steering the hurricane is
predicted to weaken and lift northward over the next couple of days,
which should allow a mid-level ridge to build in to the north and
northeast of Lowell. In response, Lowell is forecast to turn sharply
northwestward and westward while slowing down through midweek. The
models are in good agreement on this portion of the forecast, and
only small forward speed changes were made to catch up with the
latest multi-model consensus aids. The long-range forecast is
complicated by the potential for another upper trough interaction,
and the details are highly uncertain based on the spread in the
models and ensembles. The NHC forecast shows a general northwestward
motion at 96-120 h, but longer-range confidence is low.

While Lowell's intensity has changed little during the past 12-24 h,
the strong vertical wind shear has taken a toll on its structure. As
Lowell moves away from the Hawaiian Islands, weakening is expected
due to persistent shear and decreasing SSTs along its track. The NHC
forecast shows Lowell becoming a tropical storm by 36 h and
continuing to weaken through the end of the week, in best agreement
with the simple consensus aid (IVCN). There is a wider range of
possibilities at days 4-5 related to the uncertainties described
above. Although the current forecast shows Lowell remaining a
tropical cyclone, there is a distinct possibility the hostile
conditions could cause it to lose organized convection and become
post tropical even sooner.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Kauai County: The core of Lowell will pass near Niihau and just
west of Kauai overnight. Damaging hurricane conditions will continue
into early Tuesday, with the highest winds atop mountains and on
windward and leeward slopes. Large, damaging waves will continue to
impact exposed portions of the coastline, producing dangerous
coastal flooding and inundation of low-lying areas through early
Tuesday.

2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will overspread
the Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday. This may produce significant
flash flooding and mudslides, especially across Kauai County and
portions of the Big Island.

3. Oahu: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue into
early Tuesday. Strong, damaging wind gusts could cause tree damage
and power outages, especially in areas of higher terrain.

4. Large waves will continue to produce life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions during the next day or so along exposed
coasts of the Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 21.9N 160.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.1N 160.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 26.3N 160.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 27.7N 162.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 28.2N 164.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 28.0N 167.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 27.9N 169.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 29.0N 171.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 30.5N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 080851
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST MON SEP 07 2026

...HURRICANE LOWELL PASSING JUST WEST OF NIIHAU...
...DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND POWERFUL WAVES IMPACTING
KAUAI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 160.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.8 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). A MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CORE OF LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR JUST WEST OF NIIHAU OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THEN,
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST AND SLOW
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTER PASSING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL WILL REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE PASSING NEAR
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, AND THEN
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195
MILES (315 KM). BARKING SANDS (PHBK) ON WESTERN KAUAI RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 51 MPH (82 KM/H) WITH A GUST TO 84 MPH
(135 KM/H). LIHUE AIRPORT (PHLI) ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
KAUAI RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH A
GUST TO 79 MPH (127 KM/H). DANIEL K INOUYE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
(PHNL) IN HONOLULU RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST OF 45 MPH (72 KM/H).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS
963 MB (28.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KAUAI
COUNTY. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD SIDES OF
HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS,
ARE OCCURRING ON OAHU.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS,
AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE EARLY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL: LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 24 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://HURRICANES.GOV/STORM_GRAPHICS/EP12/EP1226WPCQPF.GIF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...2-4 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED VALUES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF KAUAI AND THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAUAI AND NIIHAU
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS MANY
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 080851
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 160.8W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 330SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 160.8W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 161.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.1N 160.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.3N 160.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 27.7N 162.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.2N 164.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 167.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.9N 169.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 29.0N 171.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 30.5N 173.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 160.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 080548
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM HST MON SEP 07 2026

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ACROSS KAUAI COUNTY AS LOWELL
APPROACHES...
...FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING WAVES, AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 161.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 161.1 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE CORE OF LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF NIIHAU TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THEN, LOWELL IS FORECAST
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTER
PASSING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER,
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES (280 KM). A WEATHER STATION IN WAIMEA ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
COAST OF KAUAI RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH (79 KM/H)
WITH A GUST TO 68 MPH (109 KM/H). LIHUE AIRPORT (PHLI) ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF KAUAI RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40
MPH (64 KM/H) WITH A GUST TO 52 MPH (84 KM/H).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 961
MB (28.38 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN KAUAI COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON OAHU TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS,
AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL: LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 24 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://HURRICANES.GOV/STORM_GRAPHICS/EP12/EP1226WPCQPF.GIF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...2-4 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED VALUES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF KAUAI AND THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAUAI AND NIIHAU
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS MANY
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080421

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.8N 125.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2026 0 24.8N 125.6W 992 36
1200UTC 08.09.2026 12 25.4N 127.0W 997 31
0000UTC 09.09.2026 24 26.9N 127.9W 1000 30
1200UTC 09.09.2026 36 29.1N 129.1W 1003 29
0000UTC 10.09.2026 48 31.2N 130.7W 1008 27
1200UTC 10.09.2026 60 33.1N 132.5W 1013 22
0000UTC 11.09.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 161.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2026 0 19.4N 161.6W 947 89
1200UTC 08.09.2026 12 23.0N 160.7W 961 79
0000UTC 09.09.2026 24 25.7N 161.1W 980 51
1200UTC 09.09.2026 36 27.5N 162.3W 990 43
0000UTC 10.09.2026 48 28.4N 164.5W 996 45
1200UTC 10.09.2026 60 28.4N 167.4W 1000 39
0000UTC 11.09.2026 72 28.2N 169.8W 1003 34
1200UTC 11.09.2026 84 28.7N 172.1W 1005 30
0000UTC 12.09.2026 96 30.8N 172.1W 1002 43
1200UTC 12.09.2026 108 32.2N 172.2W 998 41
0000UTC 13.09.2026 120 34.6N 176.6W 1001 32
1200UTC 13.09.2026 132 32.1N 177.9W 1003 28
0000UTC 14.09.2026 144 30.9N 179.9E 1003 24
1200UTC 14.09.2026 156 28.5N 179.9E 1004 22
0000UTC 15.09.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 14.0N 148.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2026 132 14.0N 148.2W 1005 22
0000UTC 14.09.2026 144 14.2N 149.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 14.09.2026 156 14.7N 150.1W 1005 24
0000UTC 15.09.2026 168 14.9N 151.2W 1004 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 35.1N 73.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2026 132 35.1N 73.7W 1014 23
0000UTC 14.09.2026 144 34.7N 71.8W 1012 26
1200UTC 14.09.2026 156 34.9N 71.5W 1014 27
0000UTC 15.09.2026 168 34.6N 72.9W 1014 21

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 34.9N 15.4E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2026 144 36.3N 16.7E 1005 40
1200UTC 14.09.2026 156 38.3N 16.3E 1002 37
0000UTC 15.09.2026 168 36.0N 16.3E 1005 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 30.5N 176.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2026 144 30.5N 176.8W 1001 32
1200UTC 14.09.2026 156 29.9N 178.6W 1002 24
0000UTC 15.09.2026 168 28.7N 178.1W 1003 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080421


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 048//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 161.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 161.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.7N 160.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.3N 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.2N 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 28.2N 163.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.2N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.9N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.0N 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 30.5N 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 161.2W.
08SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM
SOUTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080000Z IS
958 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 080300 CCA
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 48... CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST MON SEP 07 2026

CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT IN HAZARDS SECTION

...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NIIHAU, KAUAI, AND OAHU, WITH
FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING WAVES, AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED FROM
LOWELL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 161.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
BY AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.3
NORTH, LONGITUDE 161.3 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CORE OF LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF NIIHAU
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LOWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTER PASSING THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER,
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES (280 KM). LIHUE AIRPORT ON KAUAI RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 38 MPH (61 KM/H) WITH A GUST TO 49 MPH (79 KM/H).

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
DROPSONDE DATA IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN KAUAI COUNTY BEGINNING
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON OAHU BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TONIGHT,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL: LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 24 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY, AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://HURRICANES.GOV/STORM_GRAPHICS/EP12/EP1226WPCQPF.GIF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...2-4 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED VALUES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF KAUAI AND THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAUAI AND NIIHAU
THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 080246
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 48
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Sep 07 2026

Lowell's core structure this afternoon continues to gradually decay
as it interacts with an upper-level trough and vertical wind shear
increases. The eye is no longer observed on satellite imagery, nor
in radar data from Kauai (PHKI), or from the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters making center fixes. As Lowell interacts with the
upper-level trough, the flight-level winds on the eastern side of
the storm have increased, with the earlier recon mission finding 700
mb winds up to 131 kt. However, a dropsonde launched in the area of
maximum wind suggested that the flight level wind reduction to the
surface was much higher than usual, which makes sense because these
winds aloft occurred in an area with few convective echos from the
PHKI radar. This information provides justification to hold Lowell's
initial intensity at 95 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter Mission is in the hurricane right now and
will continue to provide updated data this evening into the
overnight hours.

The hurricane's initial motion remains north-northeastward at 025
degrees at 16 kt. Lowell's interaction with a mid- to upper-level
trough has led to the storm accelerating to the north-northeast
today as the hurricane is steered between this feature and an
extensive deep-layer ridge to the east of the Hawaiian Islands. The
hurricane should maintain this motion with a subtle bend back left
as it makes its point of closest approach to Kauai tonight.
Ultimately the upper-level trough is forecast to weaken and or lift
out, with the mid-level ridging building build back to the northwest
of Lowell. This synoptic pattern should result in the the cyclone
turning sharply to the northwest and then west in the 36-60 h time
frame, with the NHC track following the most reliable HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) aids. At long
range, some of the global models continue to hint at another
possible trough interaction in 96-120 h, and the NHC track forecast
shows another bend back northwest at that time. However, there
remains substantial uncertainty in both the deterministic and
ensemble track guidance by the end of the forecast period.

Lowell's inner-core structure has been gradually decaying due to
increasing vertical wind shear, though the ongoing trough
interaction is also enhancing the flight level winds on the
hurricane's eastern side as it accelerates. While it is possible
some baroclinic processes may help to maintain the hurricane's wind
field tonight, high shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures
(SSTs) should soon result in significant weakening after Lowell
passes the Hawaiian Islands. Model guidance continues to show Lowell
weakening below hurricane intensity by tomorrow afternoon, and that
is reflected in the latest NHC intensity forecast in 24-36 h.
Thereafter, more gradual weakening is expected as the shear
decreases and Lowell remains over marginally warm SSTs. Like the
track forecast, the intensity forecast in 96-120 h remains quite
uncertain, as it is unclear how Lowell's weakened circulation will
interact with the next upper-level trough, with solutions ranging
from strengthening to dissipation. The long-range intensity forecast
remains low confidence, and the official forecast opts to remain
close to the guidance mean.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Kauai County: The core of Lowell is forecast to pass near Niihau
tonight and early Tuesday, and damaging hurricane conditions are
expected during that time, with the highest winds atop mountains and
on windward and leeward slopes. Large damaging waves will impact
exposed portions of the coastline, producing dangerous coastal
flooding and inundation of low-lying areas through early Tuesday.

2. Periods of heavy rainfall will increase in coverage over the
Hawaiian Islands today and continue through Wednesday. This
may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially
across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.

3. Oahu: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin tonight.
Strong, damaging wind gusts could cause tree damage and power
outages, especially in areas of higher terrain.

4. Large swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions during the next several days across portions of the
Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.3N 161.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 22.7N 160.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 25.3N 160.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 27.2N 161.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 28.2N 163.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 28.2N 166.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 27.9N 168.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 28.0N 171.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 30.5N 171.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 080242
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST MON SEP 07 2026

...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NIIHAU, KAUAI, AND OAHU, WITH
FLASH FLOODING, DAMAGING WAVES, AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED FROM
LOWELL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 161.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
BY AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 20.3
NORTH, LONGITUDE 161.3 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CORE OF LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF NIIHAU
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LOWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTER PASSING THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER,
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES (280 KM). LIHUE AIRPORT ON KAUAI RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 38 MPH (61 KM/H) WITH A GUST TO 49 MPH (79 KM/H).

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
DROPSONDE DATA IS 956 MB (28.23 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN KAUAI COUNTY BEGINNING
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON OAHU BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TONIGHT,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL: LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 16 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY, 4
TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://HURRICANES.GOV/STORM_GRAPHICS/EP12/EP1226WPCQPF.GIF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...2-4 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED VALUES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF KAUAI AND THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAUAI AND NIIHAU
THIS EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 080241
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 161.3W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 55NE 60SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 330SE 330SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 161.3W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 161.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.7N 160.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 85NE 85SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.3N 160.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.2N 161.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 28.2N 163.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.2N 166.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 168.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 171.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.5N 171.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 161.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 072338
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM HST MON SEP 07 2026

...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FOR NIIHAU, KAUAI, AND OAHU, WITH FLASH
FLOODING, DAMAGING WAVES, AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED FROM LOWELL...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 161.6W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 161.6 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H). A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF LOWELL
IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF NIIHAU TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. LOWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
SLOW DOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTER PASSING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES (280 KM).

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
DROPSONDE DATA IS 958 MB (28.29 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN KAUAI COUNTY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON OAHU BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TONIGHT,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
16 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://HURRICANES.GOV/STORM_GRAPHICS/EP12/EP1226WPCQPF.GIF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...2-4 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED VALUES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF KAUAI AND THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAUAI AND NIIHAU
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 047//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 047
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 18.0N 162.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 162.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.9N 161.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.8N 160.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.9N 161.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.5N 162.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.9N 164.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 27.6N 167.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.6N 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 30.0N 172.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 161.8W.
07SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071800Z IS
956 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 072048
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 47
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 07 2026

The satellite presentation of Lowell has slightly degraded during
the past several hours, with the Air Force Hurricane Hunter showing
slowly rising central pressures. There is also a tilt on recent
microwave imagery due to increasing southwesterly shear, and the
low-level center is a bit west of the ragged eye in conventional
satellite data. Although the peak flight-level winds at 700 mb
were 113 kt, the plane also reported the loss of an eyewall, which
suggests the standard 90 percent rule will be too high for a
surface wind reduction. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to
95 kt, which also is close to the most recent JTWC and HFO
classifications.

The initial motion is north-northeastward or 030/15 kt. Lowell's
motion should gradually bend leftward due to the steering from a
mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii and a building ridge to the
northeast. The latest guidance is almost the same as before,
moving the center just west of Niihau tonight, and the new NHC
track in the short-term is only nudged slightly eastward. After
passing the main Hawaiian Islands, Lowell will likely get wrapped
around the aforementioned upper-level low and take a westward turn
after 48 hours. At long range, the system could turn northwestward
due to a new trough interaction, but hopefully it won't survive due
to its weakened state. The new forecast is very similar to the
previous one, and south of the latest GFS/ECMWF models.

Lowell should slowly weaken today due to increasing shear and
decreasing SSTs. A more rapid weakening should occur after it
passes Hawaii overnight as shear gets quite high, and it moves
over even cooler waters. Model guidance is showing a much weaker
system by midweek, and the new NHC forecast follows that trend.
Beyond Wednesday, only a gradual loss of strength is forecast due
to shear lessening while the system is over marginally warm waters.
Lowell could be transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone at day 5,
but the possible trough interaction is leading to a wide range of
solutions from re-strengthening to a quick dissipation. For now,
the forecast will follow the guidance mean, and it should be
mentioned this is a low-confidence long-range prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Kauai County: The core of Lowell is forecast to pass near Niihau
tonight and early Tuesday, and damaging hurricane conditions are
expected during that time, with the highest winds atop mountains and
on windward and leeward slopes. Large damaging waves will impact
exposed portions of the coastline, producing dangerous coastal
flooding and inundation of low-lying areas through early Tuesday.

2. Periods of heavy rainfall will increase in coverage over the
Hawaiian Islands today and continue through Wednesday. This
may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially
across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.

3. Oahu: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin tonight.
Strong, damaging wind gusts could cause tree damage and power
outages, especially in areas of higher terrain.

4. Large swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions during the next several days across portions of the
Hawaiian Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.7N 161.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.9N 161.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 23.8N 160.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 25.9N 161.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 27.5N 162.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 164.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 27.6N 167.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 27.6N 171.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 30.0N 172.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 072047
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 161.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 330SE 360SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 161.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 162.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.9N 161.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.8N 160.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.9N 161.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 27.5N 162.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.9N 164.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 27.6N 167.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.6N 171.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N 172.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 161.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 071744
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM HST MON SEP 07 2026

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR OAHU...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 162.1W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 162.1 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION
AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF NIIHAU TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. LOWELL IS THEN FORECAST
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTER
PASSING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, LOWELL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
PASSES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES (280 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES)
BASED ON AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE DATA.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN KAUAI COUNTY BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON OAHU BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TONIGHT,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
16 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS
OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS
OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://HURRICANES.GOV/STORM_GRAPHICS/EP12/EP1226WPCQPF.GIF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...2-4 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED VALUES ALONG THE
SOUTH COAST OF KAUAI AND THE ISLAND OF NIIHAU
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAUAI AND NIIHAU
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 046//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 046
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 17.0N 162.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 162.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.5N 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.4N 160.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.1N 160.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.0N 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.8N 163.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.8N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.5N 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 29.0N 172.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 162.5W. 07SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 071200Z IS 950 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072200Z, 080400Z,
081000Z AND 081600Z. REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KARINA) FINAL
WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 071452
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Sep 07 2026

Lowell is a well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye and cold
cloud tops in the eyewall, though overnight microwave imagery still
showed evidence of concentric eyewalls. Intensity estimates are
about the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial wind speed is held at
100 kt. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to be in the cyclone in a few hours for a better estimate.

The initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/12 kt. A cut-off
mid- to upper-level low is slowly moving westward to the north-
northwest of Hawaii, which should allow the storm to gradually bend
more to north during the next 24 hours. However, this northward
turn has been delayed from expected, and the guidance has shifted
about 30 n mi to the east of the last forecast. NHC's new forecast
follows that trend, bringing the hurricane closer to the western
Hawaiian Islands. The new forecast necessitates a Tropical Storm
Watch for Oahu, and any further eastward adjustments could require
a warning later today or this afternoon. Beyond 2 days, Lowell
should swing westward as it merges with the upper-low, a few
hundred miles north of the northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The
forecast is shifted westward at long range, and the system could be
close to dissipating as a tropical cyclone on day 5 based on the
latest global model forecast.

Lowell is starting to encounter increasing shear and cooling
waters, which should cause a gradual weakening today, though it is
still expected to be a large hurricane as it passes near or just
west of Niihau. Rapid weakening is in the forecast after it moves
north of the main Hawaiian Islands due to very strong shear and
marginal water temperatures. Model guidance is in poor agreement in
the medium range due to the upper-level trough interaction, and
little change is made to the last forecast at long range.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The core of Lowell is forecast to pass near or just west of
Niihau tonight and early Tuesday, and damaging hurricane conditions
are expected to begin in Kauai County tonight and continue through
Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin
later today. Higher wind gusts are expected atop mountains and on
windward and leeward slopes.

2. Periods of heavy rainfall will increase in coverage over the
Hawaiian Islands today and continue through Wednesday. This may
produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, especially across
Kauai county and portions of the Big Island.

3. Large damaging waves are expected to impact exposed portions of
Kauai County and are likely to produce coastal flooding and
inundation of low-lying areas through early Tuesday.

4. Large swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands during the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.5N 162.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.5N 161.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.4N 160.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 25.1N 160.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 27.0N 161.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 27.8N 163.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 27.8N 166.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 27.5N 170.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 29.0N 172.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 071451
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 162.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 360SE 390SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 162.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 162.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N 161.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.4N 160.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 65NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.1N 160.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.0N 161.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.8N 163.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.8N 166.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 170.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 29.0N 172.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 162.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 045//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 045
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 16.1N 163.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 163.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.3N 162.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.0N 161.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.8N 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.0N 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.3N 162.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 27.7N 165.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 27.4N 169.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 27.7N 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 163.1W. 07SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM EAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND
081000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) FIANL WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC)//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 070917 CCA
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 45...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 06 2026

CORRECTED TO REMOVE TROPICAL STORM WARNING

...LOWELL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 163.2W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) . A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
LOWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT, JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, ON
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND SLOW DOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTER PASSING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, LOWELL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS
IT PASSES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
(280 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 950 MB (28.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN KAUAI COUNTY BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS, AND WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
14 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU, 4 TO
6 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED, WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE REMAINING
ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...1-3 FT
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAUAI AND NIIHAU
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 070849
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

In satellite imagery, Lowell remains well organized with a
well-defined eye and cooling cloud tops in the eyewall. However,
reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the storm has multiple concentric wind maxima around the eye
and that the central pressure has slowly risen to near 950 mb. The
maximum 700-mb flight-level winds reported by the plane were 107 kt
east of the center. Based on the aircraft reports, the initial
intensity is set at 100 kt.

The initial motion is now north-northeastward or 020/8 kt. The
synoptic reasoning of the first part of the forecast track is
unchanged from the previous advisory. A cutoff mid- to upper-level
low sliding west-southwest north of Hawaii is beginning to capture
Lowell, and this, combined with mid-level ridging to the
hurricane's southeast should generally impart a faster north-
northeastward to northward motion to the storm for the next 24-48 h.
The track guidance envelope has shifted a little farther to the
east, and the first 36 h or so of the new forecast track has been
again nudged eastward. After 48 h, the cut-off low is forecast to
weaken and lift out, with Lowell turning westward as a ridge builds
to the north. This portion of the forecast track lies a little
south of the previous forecast.

Lowell is starting to encounter increasing shear, and this, combined
with gradually cooling sea surface temperatures along the forecast
track, should cause weakening. However, Lowell is likely to remain a
hurricane until after its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands.
After passing Hawaii, the intensity forecast becomes more uncertain,
as the global models are in poor agreement on how the cyclone may
interact with one or more new mid- to upper-level troughs that are
forecast to form nearby. For now, this part of the intensity
forecast is little changed from the previous forecast.

Given another eastward shift in the track guidance and the forecast
close approach of hurricane-force winds to Niihau, a Hurricane
Warning has been issued for Kauai County.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell's center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County
late Monday into early Tuesday. A Hurricane Warning is now in
effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, where
hurricane conditions are possible are expected to begin Monday
afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. Enhanced wind gusts
are possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.

2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will
increase in coverage over the Hawaiian Islands tonight and continue
through Wednesday. This may produce significant flash flooding and
mudslides, especially across Kauai county and portions of the Big
Island.

3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could produce coastal flooding and inundation of
low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 16.5N 163.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 18.3N 162.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 21.0N 161.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 23.8N 161.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 26.0N 161.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 27.3N 162.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 27.7N 165.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 27.4N 169.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 27.7N 171.6W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 070847
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 06 2026

...LOWELL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACHING THE WESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 163.2W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H) . A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
LOWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT, JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, ON
MONDAY NIGHT. LOWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND SLOW DOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTER PASSING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, LOWELL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS
IT PASSES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
(280 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 950 MB (28.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN KAUAI COUNTY BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD SIDES
OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THE
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS, AND WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
14 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR OAHU, 4 TO
6 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED, WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE REMAINING
ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...1-3 FT
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAUAI AND NIIHAU
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 070847
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 163.2W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 163.2W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 163.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.3N 162.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 85SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 161.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 65NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.8N 161.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 75SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.0N 161.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 27.3N 162.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.7N 165.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.4N 169.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.7N 171.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 163.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 044//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 044
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 163.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 163.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.2N 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.7N 162.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.6N 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.3N 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 27.0N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.8N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.8N 168.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 28.0N 170.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 163.5W. 07SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070000Z IS 948 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z,
072200Z AND 080400Z. REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KARINA)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 070244
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

Before departing Lowell, the final fix from the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter mission found the hurricane was mostly steady
state, with peak flight level winds of 109 kt and a minimum pressure
still at 948 mb. While a closed 30 n mi wide eye remains, there was
evidence of a secondary wind maximum beginning to form on the recon
flight, and a secondary convective ring can also be seen from a
recent AMSR3 microwave image, suggesting another eyewall replacement
cycle may soon be underway. While the aircraft flight level winds
support a maximum sustained wind of around 100 kt, the eastern side
of Lowell was not fully sampled where the highest winds might be
present given the current motion. This assessment, combined with
higher satellite intensity estimates suggests maintaining the
intensity at 105 kt this advisory.

Lowell is now moving a little east of due north this afternoon,
estimated at 010 degrees at 8 kt. The synoptic situation continues
to evolve as a cutoff mid- to upper-level low sliding west-southwest
is beginning to capture Lowell, as mid-level ridging to the
hurricane's southeast should generally impart a northward to
north-northeastward motion over it for the next 24-48 h as Lowell
gradually accelerates. Like this afternoon, there has been another
eastward shift in the guidance, with the HFIP Corrected Consensus
Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) aids along with the HAFS
hurricane-regional models on the eastern side of the guidance
envelope. Thus, the NHC official forecast has been shifted a little
more eastward in response to these model trends. After 48 h, the
cutoff low influencing Lowell's motion is forecast to lift out, with
a mid-level ridge building back in to the north, which should result
in the cyclone turning back to the northwest or even west in the
latter half of the forecast period.

While vertical wind shear over Lowell is currently low, it is soon
forecast to increase out of the southwest to above 30 kt in 24 h.
This shear, combined with the likelihood that Lowell may soon
undergo another eyewall replacement cycle will likely lead to
weakening, first slowly, and then a faster rate in the 24-48 h time
frame. This solution is reflected in the latest NHC intensity
forecast, which shows slow weakening tonight, but a faster rate of
weakening by Monday night into Tuesday when the shear is expected to
be 30-40 kt over the hurricane. Regardless, Lowell is still forecast
to be a hurricane when it makes it closest point of approach to the
Hawaii Islands on Monday night. After passing by, Lowell should
continue to weaken below hurricane intensity, and there remain some
possibility of the storm becoming post-tropical by the end of the
forecast period, though significant uncertainty remain in the model
guidance by the 120 h period.

Given the eastward shift in the track guidance and with the
expectation that Lowell's radii will also be larger on its eastern
semicircle, the risk of hurricane conditions for Kauai and Niihau
has increased, and a Hurricane Watch has now been issued for this
portion of the Hawaiian Islands.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell's center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County
late Monday into early Tuesday. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm
Warning is now in effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and
Niihau, where hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm
conditions are expected to begin Monday afternoon and continue
through Tuesday morning. Wind gusts to hurricane force are also
possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.

2. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will
increase in coverage over the Hawaiian Islands tonight and continue
through Wednesday. This may produce significant flash flooding and
mudslides, especially across Kauai county and portions of the Big
Island.

3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could produce coastal flooding and inundation of
low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 15.9N 163.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.2N 163.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 19.7N 162.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.6N 161.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 25.3N 161.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 27.0N 162.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.8N 164.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 27.8N 168.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 28.0N 170.9W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 062337
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM HST SUN SEP 06 2026

...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LOWELL MOVING DUE NORTH...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU BY LATE
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 163.7W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 15.4
NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.7 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR
6 MPH (9 KM/H). A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECASTED THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF LOWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT, JUST WEST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, ON MONDAY NIGHT. LOWELL IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTER PASSING
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120
MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, BUT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LOWELL IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES (85 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES (280 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY RECONNAISSANCE DROPSONDE
DATA IS 948 MB (28.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN KAUAI COUNTY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS, AND WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL: LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 14 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR
THE BIG ISLAND, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS
THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...1-3 FT
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

TORNADOES: SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAUAI AND NIIHAU
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 043
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 14.8N 163.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 163.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.3N 163.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.5N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.4N 161.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.2N 161.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.4N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.6N 163.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.0N 167.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.9N 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 163.7W. 06SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 348 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND
072200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 062047
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is currently
investigating Lowell and on their first pass through the eye found
that the central pressure has risen to 948 mb. The highest 700-mb
flight-level wind so far is 109 kt. Satellite images show that the
eye has grown in size this morning and is now about 30 n mi in
diameter. Based on the rise in pressure and the flight-level winds
measured on this and the previous mission, the initial intensity is
now set at 105 kt.

Lowell has turned toward the north with an estimated motion of
350/5 kt. The steering continues to be dominated by a cutoff
mid-/upper-level low located north-northeast of Hawaii, which is
forecast to move west-southwestward and cause Lowell to accelerate
toward the north and north-northeast through Monday night. The
track guidance has shifted a bit to the east again, and the
typically better-performing HCCA and GDMI models as well as HAFS-A
and -B lie along the eastern edge of the envelope. The NHC official
forecast has also been nudged eastward to account for recent model
trends. The wind risk for Kauai and Niihau has trended upward based
on the latest track and size forecast, with the 50-kt wind radii now
crossing Niihau in about 36 hours. Accounting for the potential
of additional eastward shifts, as well as the terrain, there
is an increasing chance of gusts to hurricane force on those
islands.

After the center passes the Hawaiian Islands, model guidance is in
good agreement that Lowell will turn westward by early Friday,
but there is some disagreement on the sharpness of that turn.

Lowell's intensity is expected to remain fairly steady for the next
12 hours before south-southwesterly shear increases. Gradual
weakening should begin by tonight, and the NHC intensity forecast
has generally been adjusted toward the latest IVCN, HCCA, and GDMI
guidance. Lowell is now expected to weaken to a tropical storm by
early Wednesday, after passing the Hawaiian Islands, due to the
effects of continued shear and dry air. Some models are even
suggesting that Lowell could lose deep convection and become
post-tropical by day 5, but since there is a lot of uncertainty, the
official forecast continues to keep tropical status through the
forecast period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell's center is forecast to pass just west of Kauai County
late Monday into early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical
storm conditions are expected to begin Monday afternoon and
continue through Tuesday morning. Wind gusts to hurricane force
are possible atop mountains and on windward and leeward slopes.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the
Hawaiian Islands today and continue through early this week. Periods
of heavy rain may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides,
especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.

3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could produce coastal flooding and inundation of
low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 15.2N 163.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.3N 163.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.5N 162.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 21.4N 161.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 161.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 26.4N 162.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 27.6N 163.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 28.0N 167.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 27.9N 170.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 062046
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 163.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 270SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 163.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 163.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 163.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 162.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.4N 161.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 161.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.4N 162.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 27.6N 163.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 167.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.9N 170.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 163.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 061737
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM HST SUN SEP 06 2026

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF HAWAII OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 163.8W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.8 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING THE CENTER OF
LOWELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT, JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MONDAY NIGHT.
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SLOW
DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER PASSING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING
BEGINNING TONIGHT. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
THROUGH MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES (85 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES (280 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB (27.85 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN KAUAI COUNTY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS, AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS
COULD BE EVEN GREATER.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 14 INCHES POSSIBLE.
FOR THE BIG ISLAND, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS
THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...1-3 FT
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 042//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 042
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 163.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 163.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.6N 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.5N 163.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.0N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.0N 161.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.4N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.9N 162.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.9N 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.7N 170.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 163.8W. 06SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061200Z IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z,
071000Z AND 071600Z.REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


0000314900
00001


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 061449
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft completed a mission
in Lowell a few hours ago and measured peak 700-mb flight-level
winds of 114 kt, which typically equates to an intensity of 100-105
kt. However, dropsonde data from the plane also indicated that the
central pressure (943 mb) was a bit lower than previously
estimated. For that reason, Lowell's currently intensity is held at
110 kt, which is also very close to the latest UW-CIMSS DPRINT and
SATCON estimates.

Lowell is in the midst of its anticipated sharp turn, and the
current motion is north-northwestward (335/5 kt). The steering
continues to be dominated by a cutoff mid-/upper-level low located
about 350 n mi north-northeast of Hawaii, which is forecast to
move west-southwestward and cause Lowell to accelerate toward the
north and north-northeast through Monday night. The track guidance
is tightly packed through that period, although some of the
better-performing models (HCCA and GDMI) lie along the eastern
edge of the envelope. That required an additional eastward nudge in
the official forecast, bringing Lowell's center near or over the
island of Nihoa in 48 hours and about 100 n mi west of Kauai
County. After the center passes the Hawaiian Islands, model guidance
is in good agreement that Lowell will turn westward by early Friday,
but there is some disagreement on the sharpness of that turn.

Vertical shear is expected to remain low for another 12 hours, so
fluctuations in intensity will still be possible through this
afternoon. South-southwesterly shear is forecast to increase to
strong levels by tonight, which should induce a gradual weakening
trend while Lowell is passing the Hawaiian Islands. However, even
with the weakening, Lowell is not expected to change much in size,
and tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread across Kauai
and Niihau by Monday afternoon, necessitating the issuance of a
tropical storm warning. Lowell is forecast to weaken to a tropical
storm by early Wednesday after passing the Hawaiian Islands, and
continued weakening is expected through the end of the week due to
continued shear, marginal sea surface temperatures, and dry
mid-level air.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauai County late Monday into
early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Kauai
County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday
morning. Strong wind gusts will be possible atop mountains and on
windward and leeward slopes.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the
Hawaiian Islands today and continue through early this week. Periods
of heavy rain may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides,
especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.

3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could also produce coastal flooding and inundation
of low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.7N 163.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 15.6N 163.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.5N 163.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 20.0N 162.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.0N 161.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 25.4N 162.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.9N 162.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 27.9N 166.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 27.7N 170.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 061448
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SUN SEP 06 2026

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR KAUAI AND NIIHAU...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 163.8W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 600 MI...960 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING
THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.8 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING THE CENTER OF
LOWELL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT, JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MONDAY NIGHT.
LOWELL IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SLOW
DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER PASSING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING
BEGINNING TONIGHT. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
THROUGH MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES (85 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
(280 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB (27.85 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN KAUAI COUNTY BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD
AND LEEWARD SIDES OF HILLS AND MOUNTAINS ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT
STRONGER THAN THE NEAR-SURFACE WINDS, AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS
COULD BE EVEN GREATER.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 14 INCHES POSSIBLE.
FOR THE BIG ISLAND, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS
THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...1-3 FT
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 061447
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 163.8W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 300SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 163.8W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 163.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.6N 163.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 163.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 162.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 161.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 162.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.9N 162.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 27.9N 166.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.7N 170.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 0SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 163.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 061139
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM HST SUN SEP 06 2026

...LOWELL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT LOWELL REMAINS A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 163.7W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL. WARNINGS ARE LIKELY LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.7 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LOWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT, JUST WEST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING LATER TODAY AND
MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES (280 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IS
943 MB (27.85 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN KAUAI COUNTY BY
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS MONDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS EXCEEDING 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY ON KAUAI AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...1-3 FT
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 041//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 041
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 163.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 163.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.4N 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.5N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.2N 163.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.7N 162.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.7N 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.0N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.8N 164.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.3N 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 163.4W. 06SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z,
062200Z AND 070400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 060857
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Lowell remains an impressive hurricane, with a warm and well-defined
eye surrounded by a generally symmetric eyewall. However, infrared
imagery shows some warming of the cloud tops within portions of the
eyewall. Recent microwave imagery also shows some hints of an outer
eyewall-like feature, although it currently appears more like a
convective band and is not sufficiently organized to confirm that an
eyewall replacement cycle is beginning. Subjective Dvorak Current
Intensity estimates range from 5.5 from JTWC to 6.0 from HFO,
corresponding to 102 to 115 kt, while objective intensity estimates
generally range from 100 to 120 kt. Based on a blend of these
estimates and the gradual weakening trend, the initial intensity is
lowered to 110 kt for this advisory, making Lowell a Category 3
hurricane.

Lowell continues to gain latitude and has begun to make its
anticipated turn, with an initial motion of 325/4 kt. A cutoff upper
low north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue southwestward during
the next couple of days. As Lowell becomes increasingly influenced
by this feature, the hurricane should turn northward on Sunday and
then north-northeastward while accelerating Sunday night and Monday.
The latest track guidance has shifted slightly eastward, but remains
in generally good agreement on the overall evolution of Lowell's
motion. The NHC track forecast has also been shifted slightly
eastward and represents a blend of the previous forecast, the simple
and multi-model consensus aids TVCN and HCCA, and the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean. After passing west of the main Hawaiian
Islands, Lowell is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and
slow as weak ridging builds to the north of the cyclone.

Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible in the short term due
to potential inner-core structural changes. However, the overall
trend is expected to be toward continued weakening. The environment
should remain generally favorable through early Sunday, but
deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to increase markedly
during the 24- to 48-h period as Lowell turns northward and then
north-northeastward and accelerates. Increasing dry mid-level air
should also become entrained into the circulation during this time.
These hostile environmental conditions are expected to result in a
faster rate of weakening by Monday night and Tuesday. Despite the
expected weakening, Lowell is forecast to remain a powerful
hurricane when it passes west of Kauai County Monday night and
across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
Thereafter, strong vertical wind shear, drier air, and progressively
cooler waters should result in continued weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and generally
lies within the middle to upper end of the intensity guidance
envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauai County late Monday into
early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Kauai
County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical storm conditions
are possible beginning Monday. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals, where hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to
impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through
early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce significant flash
flooding and mudslides, especially on Kauai and portions of the Big
Island.

3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could also produce coastal flooding and inundation
of low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 14.1N 163.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.8N 163.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.3N 163.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 18.5N 163.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.4N 162.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.1N 162.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.7N 162.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 27.2N 165.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 27.5N 170.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 060852
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Lowell remains a impressive hurricane, with a warm and well-defined
eye surrounded by a generally symmetric eyewall. However, infrared
imagery shows some warming of the cloud tops within portions of the
eyewall. Recent microwave imagery also shows some hints of an outer
eyewall-like feature, although it currently appears more like a
convective band and is not sufficiently organized to confirm that an
eyewall replacement cycle is beginning. Subjective Dvorak Current
Intensity estimates range from 5.5 from JTWC to 6.0 from HFO,
corresponding to 102 to 115 kt, while objective intensity estimates
generally range from 100 to 120 kt. Based on a blend of these
estimates and the gradual weakening trend, the initial intensity is
lowered to 110 kt for this advisory, making Lowell a Category 3
hurricane.

Lowell continues to gain latitude and has begun to make its
anticipated turn, with an initial motion of 325/4 kt. A cutoff upper
low north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue southwestward during
the next couple of days. As Lowell becomes increasingly influenced
by this feature, the hurricane should turn northward on Sunday and
then north-northeastward while accelerating Sunday night and Monday.
The latest track guidance has shifted slightly eastward, but remains
in generally good agreement on the overall evolution of Lowell's
motion. The NHC track forecast has also been shifted slightly
eastward and represents a blend of the previous forecast, the simple
and multi-model consensus aids TVCN and HCCA, and the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean. After passing west of the main Hawaiian
Islands, Lowell is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and
slow as weak ridging builds to the north of the cyclone.

Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible in the short term due
to potential inner-core structural changes. However, the overall
trend is expected to be toward continued weakening. The environment
should remain generally favorable through early Sunday, but
deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to increase markedly
during the 24- to 48-h period as Lowell turns northward and then
north-northeastward and accelerates. Increasing dry mid-level air
should also become entrained into the circulation during this time.
These hostile environmental conditions are expected to result in a
faster rate of weakening by Monday night and Tuesday. Despite the
expected weakening, Lowell is forecast to remain a powerful
hurricane when it passes west of Kauai County Monday night and
across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
Thereafter, strong vertical wind shear, drier air, and progressively
cooler waters should result in continued weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and generally
lies within the middle to upper end of the intensity guidance
envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauai County late Monday into
early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Kauai
County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical storm conditions
are possible beginning Monday. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals, where hurricane conditions are
possible beginning Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to
impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through
early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce significant flash
flooding and mudslides, especially on Kauai and portions of the Big
Island.

3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could also produce coastal flooding and inundation
of low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 14.1N 163.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 14.8N 163.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 16.3N 163.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 18.5N 163.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.4N 162.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.1N 162.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.7N 162.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 27.2N 165.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 27.5N 170.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 060850
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 163.5W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 210SE 270SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 163.5W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 163.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.8N 163.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 163.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 163.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.4N 162.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.1N 162.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.7N 162.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N 165.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.5N 170.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 40SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 163.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 060533
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM HST SAT SEP 05 2026

...LOWELL HOLDING STEADY THIS EVENING...
...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH A NORTHWARD TURN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 163.5W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.5 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF LOWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT, JUST WEST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES (280 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB (27.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN KAUAI COUNTY BY
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BEGINNING BY
LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS EXCEEDING 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY ON KAUAI AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...1-3 FT
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 060400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 040//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 040
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 163.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 163.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.4N 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.5N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.2N 163.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.7N 162.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.7N 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.0N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 26.8N 164.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 27.3N 168.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060400Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 163.4W.
06SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060000Z
IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 060235
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Lowell remains an impressive and well-organized major hurricane this
afternoon, although satellite imagery suggests that some weakening
has occurred during the past several hours. The eye remains well
defined and is surrounded by a largely symmetric eyewall, but
visible and infrared imagery show some erosion of the convection
within the northeastern portion of the eyewall, where cloud-top
temperatures have warmed. This could be the result of some mid-level
dry air becoming entrained into the inner core. Although an eyewall
replacement cycle cannot be ruled out, there are still no recent
microwave data to indicate that a secondary eyewall has formed.
Subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC are
both 6.0, corresponding to 115 kt, while objective intensity
estimates range from about 105 to 125 kt. Based on a blend of these
data and the modest degradation of the satellite presentation, the
initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt for this advisory. A NOAA
G-IV aircraft is currently sampling the environment surrounding
Lowell, and these data should be incorporated into upcoming model
cycles.

Lowell has continued to slowly gain latitude, with an initial motion
of 300/4 kt. A cutoff upper-level low north-northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is forecast to move southwestward during the next
couple of days. As Lowell becomes increasingly influenced by this
feature, the hurricane should turn northward on Sunday and then
north-northeastward while accelerating Sunday night and Monday. The
track guidance remains in good agreement and continues to show the
center of Lowell passing west of Kauai County late Monday into early
Tuesday. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous advisory and brings the center of Lowell about 150 to
175 n mi west of Niihau around the time of closest approach. After
passing the main Hawaiian Islands, Lowell is forecast to turn
west-northwestward and slow as weak ridging builds to the north of
the cyclone.

Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible through early Sunday
due to internal structural changes. However, the overall trend is
expected to be toward gradual weakening. Deep-layer vertical wind
shear is forecast to increase substantially beginning Sunday as
Lowell turns northward and accelerates toward the vicinity of the
western main Hawaiian Islands. Increasingly dry mid-level air should
also become entrained into the circulation during this time. These
increasingly hostile environmental conditions should cause the rate
of weakening to increase Sunday night and Monday. Despite the
expected weakening, Lowell is forecast to remain a major hurricane
when it makes its closest approach to Kauai County and passes across
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
Thereafter, a combination of strong vertical wind shear and drier
air should result in continued weakening. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauai County late Monday into
early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Kauai
County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical storm conditions
are possible beginning Monday. A Hurricane Watch has been issued
for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to
impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through
early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce significant flash
flooding and mudslides, especially on Kauai and portions of the Big
Island.

3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could also produce coastal flooding and inundation
of low-lying areas late Monday into Monday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 13.7N 163.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 14.4N 163.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 15.5N 164.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 17.2N 163.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 19.7N 162.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 22.7N 162.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.0N 162.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 26.8N 164.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 27.3N 168.6W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 060232
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SAT SEP 05 2026

...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A NORTHWARD TURN
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...
...WATCHES ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 163.4W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING
THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY, INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.4 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LOWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT, JUST WEST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
(280 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB (27.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN KAUAI COUNTY BY
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BEGINNING BY
LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES FOR KAUAI, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS EXCEEDING 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. FOR THE BIG ISLAND, 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY ON KAUAI AND PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...1-3 FT
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 060231
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 163.4W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 210SE 240SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 163.4W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 163.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.4N 163.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 164.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.2N 163.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 162.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.7N 162.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.0N 162.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N 164.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.3N 168.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 163.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 PHFO/HFOTCPCP4...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 039//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 039
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.4N 162.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 162.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.9N 163.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.9N 164.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.2N 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.2N 163.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.1N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.9N 162.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 26.9N 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 27.6N 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 163.2W. 05SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 431 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 051800Z IS 936 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND
062200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 052043
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

Lowell's satellite presentation has degraded further this morning
with what appears to be a moat developing around the eyewall in
visible and satellite imagery. This could suggest that Lowell is
beginning to go through an eyewall replacement, but the most recent
microwave data did not show signs of a secondary eyewall. It's also
possible that the hurricane has ingested dry air that is eroding
some of the convection outside of the inner core. Either way,
subjective Dvorak Current Intensity numbers and objective estimates
now support an initial intensity of 125 kt.

Lowell appears to have begun its expected turn, with the initial
motion now west-northwestward (285/6 kt). A deep-layer low located
about 500 n mi north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast
to dip southwestward over the next couple of days, which will cause
Lowell to make a sharp northward to north-northeastward turn,
accompanied by an increase in forward speed, by Sunday and Monday.
The track guidance has not changed much since the last cycle and
remains in good agreement that Lowell's center will move 100-200 n
mi to the west of Kauai County in 60-72 hours. Since the models
didn't change much, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to
the previous forecast. After passing the main Hawaiian Islands after
day 3, Lowell is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest and slow
down as weak ridging again builds in north of the cyclone.

The official intensity forecast shows a steady intensity for the
next 12 hours or so, leaving the door open for possible
fluctuations in intensity, especially if an eyewall replacement
does occur. Overall, however, models suggest that gradual weakening
will continue, especially once deep-layer shear increases in 36-48
hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast has again been lowered
slightly from the previous prediction to follow model trends, but
it still shows Lowell being near or at major hurricane strength when
it makes its closest approach to the western main Hawaiian Islands
and passes across portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument. After day 3, the addition of cooler waters and drier air
should cause Lowell to weaken to a tropical storm by day 4.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell is forecast to move close to the western Hawaiian Islands
late Monday and Monday night. There is a risk of wind and coastal
flooding impacts for Kauai County at that time, and a tropical
storm watch will likely be issued later today. Residents and
tourists should follow advice from local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the
Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through early next
week. Periods of heavy rain may produce locally significant flash
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 13.5N 163.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 13.9N 163.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 14.9N 164.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 16.2N 164.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 18.2N 163.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 21.1N 162.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 23.9N 162.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 26.9N 163.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 27.6N 167.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 052042
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 05 2026

...LOWELL TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 163.1W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LOWELL. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR KAUAI COUNTY AND
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
TODAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
LOWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT, JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
(260 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB (27.64 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN KAUAI COUNTY BY
LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING BY LATE
MONDAY.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE, FOR
KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS
THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS
MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

KAUAI COUNTY...1-3 FT
OAHU...UP TO 1 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE, AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 051621

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2026

HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 120.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2026 0 21.6N 120.1W 970 57
0000UTC 06.09.2026 12 22.5N 121.1W 973 56
1200UTC 06.09.2026 24 23.5N 121.9W 978 50
0000UTC 07.09.2026 36 24.4N 122.5W 982 45
1200UTC 07.09.2026 48 25.1N 123.4W 987 43
0000UTC 08.09.2026 60 26.1N 124.6W 993 36
1200UTC 08.09.2026 72 26.8N 125.7W 998 32
0000UTC 09.09.2026 84 28.5N 126.1W 1001 31
1200UTC 09.09.2026 96 30.3N 126.6W 1005 26
0000UTC 10.09.2026 108 32.6N 126.8W 1010 20
1200UTC 10.09.2026 120 34.9N 128.2W 1014 18
0000UTC 11.09.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.2N 143.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2026 0 21.2N 143.2W 981 59
0000UTC 06.09.2026 12 21.7N 143.9W 986 51
1200UTC 06.09.2026 24 22.1N 144.7W 992 48
0000UTC 07.09.2026 36 22.8N 146.1W 997 41
1200UTC 07.09.2026 48 22.6N 148.2W 1003 33
0000UTC 08.09.2026 60 23.0N 150.7W 1006 31
1200UTC 08.09.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 162.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2026 0 13.5N 162.3W 944 90
0000UTC 06.09.2026 12 13.7N 163.7W 951 80
1200UTC 06.09.2026 24 14.2N 164.5W 952 84
0000UTC 07.09.2026 36 15.2N 164.9W 954 77
1200UTC 07.09.2026 48 16.6N 164.5W 958 73
0000UTC 08.09.2026 60 18.6N 163.8W 953 80
1200UTC 08.09.2026 72 21.2N 163.0W 966 70
0000UTC 09.09.2026 84 23.6N 163.2W 975 62
1200UTC 09.09.2026 96 24.6N 164.1W 990 49
0000UTC 10.09.2026 108 25.6N 165.7W 996 46
1200UTC 10.09.2026 120 26.0N 168.3W 1000 39
0000UTC 11.09.2026 132 26.4N 170.7W 1003 37
1200UTC 11.09.2026 144 26.9N 173.4W 1005 32
0000UTC 12.09.2026 156 28.4N 174.9W 1005 31
1200UTC 12.09.2026 168 31.5N 175.2W 1004 44


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051621


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 038//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 162.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 162.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.8N 163.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.6N 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.7N 164.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.3N 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.7N 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.5N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.7N 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.3N 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 162.7W. 05SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 456 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 051200Z IS 931 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND
061600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 051441
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Sep 05 2026

A little bit of erosion of the convection has occurred near
Lowell's eastern eyewall this morning, possibly due to mid-level
shear and intrusion of dry air. Regardless, Lowell is still a
powerful category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds
estimated to be 130 kt. The latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers
from HFO and JTWC are 6.5/127 kt, and the UW-CIMSS DPRINT estimate,
which has been tracking well with Lowell's recent intensity
changes, is around 130 kt. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission
is scheduled for later this morning.

Lowell is moving just north of due west, or 275/6 kt, as weak
mid-level ridging barely holds on to the north. A deep-layer low
located about 600 n mi northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is
forecast to dip southwestward over the next couple of days, further
eroding the ridge, and causing Lowell to make a sharp northward to
north-northeastward turn by Sunday and Monday. The guidance is
coming into better focus on Lowell's path near the Hawaiian Islands,
with the bulk of the models taking the center 100-200 n mi to the
west of Kauai County in about 72 hours. An important note for this
forecast, however, is that the HCCA corrected consensus and
the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI), which have both been
performing well for this storm, lie along the eastern side of the
guidance envelope. This required a slight eastward nudge to the
official forecast between 60-96 hours. After passing the main
Hawaiian Islands after day 3, Lowell is forecast to turn toward the
west-northwest and slow down as weak ridging again builds in north
of the cyclone.

The official intensity forecast shows a steady intensity for the
next 24 hours while the hurricane remains in a low-shear environment
and over water temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius, but
fluctuations up or down will be possible. Deep-layer shear is
expected to increase in about 48 hours and peak around 72 hours as
Lowell approaches an upper-level trough to its northwest, which
should induce a steady weakening trend. The updated NHC intensity
forecast is a bit lower than the previous prediction, trending
toward the latest guidance envelope, but it still shows Lowell being
near or at major hurricane strength when it makes its closest
approach to the western main Hawaiian Islands and passes across
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. After
day 3, the addition of cooler waters and drier air should cause
Lowell to weaken to a tropical storm by day 5.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell is forecast to move close to the western Hawaiian Islands
late Monday and Monday night. There is a risk of storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County,
early next week and watches will likely be issued later today.
Residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and
follow advice from local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the
Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through early next
week. Periods of heavy rain may produce locally significant flash
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 13.4N 162.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 14.6N 164.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 15.7N 164.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 17.3N 163.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 19.7N 163.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 22.5N 162.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 26.7N 163.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 28.3N 166.3W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 051441
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SAT SEP 05 2026

...LOWELL FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND APPROACH THE
WESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY...
...INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LOWELL'S PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 162.6W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LOWELL. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER TODAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 162.6 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF LOWELL WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT, JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
(260 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB (27.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE, FOR
KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS
THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP4.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 051440
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 162.6W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 150SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 162.6W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 162.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.6N 164.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 164.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.3N 163.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 163.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 162.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.7N 163.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 28.3N 166.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 162.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 037
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 13.3N 161.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 161.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.6N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.2N 163.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.1N 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.5N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.5N 163.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.1N 162.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 25.5N 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 28.1N 165.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 162.0W. 05SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 922 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND
061000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 050853
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

Lowell remains an impressive hurricane this evening. Satellite
imagery continues to show a very warm eye surrounded by a symmetric
eyewall, although the eye has become slightly more ragged and less
well defined during the past few hours. Some slight warming of the
cloud tops has also occurred within the eastern portion of the
eyewall. Recent data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the central pressure has risen to 925 mb, and
maximum 700-mb flight-level winds have decreased to 141 kt. These
data support slightly lowering the initial intensity to 135 kt,
making Lowell a Category 4 hurricane.

The initial motion is 275/6 kt. Lowell should continue generally
westward through Saturday while being steered by a mid-level ridge
to the north of the hurricane. On Sunday, the steering pattern is
expected to change as a mid- to upper-level low moves south to
southeastward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands and weakens the
subtropical ridge. This should cause Lowell to turn sharply
northward or north-northeastward and accelerate, bringing the
hurricane close to the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands Monday and
Monday night. There remains some uncertainty in exactly where and
how sharply Lowell makes this turn, which will depend on the
location and amplitude of the mid- to upper-level low relative to
the hurricane. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an
update from the previous advisory and lies between the simple
consensus (TVCN) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Environmental conditions should remain favorable for Lowell to
maintain much of its strength during the next 12 to 24 h, with weak
vertical wind shear and a moist environment expected along the
forecast track. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during
this time due to internal structural changes. Thereafter, Lowell is
forecast to begin a gradual weakening trend as the vertical wind
shear increases and the hurricane begins to entrain dry mid-level
air. The rate of weakening is expected to increase by Monday as the
shear becomes quite strong. Despite the expected weakening, Lowell
is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches the
westernmost Hawaiian Islands early next week. The NHC intensity
forecast is essentially an updated of the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it
moves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday
night. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions
of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches
will likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local
officials.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to
impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through
early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce flash flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 13.3N 161.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 13.6N 162.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 14.2N 163.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 15.1N 164.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 16.5N 164.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 18.5N 163.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.1N 162.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 25.5N 163.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 28.1N 165.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Pierce


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 050852
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 04 2026

...LOWELL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS
PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 161.9W
ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LOWELL. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERNMOST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 161.9 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY.

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
(260 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB (27.32 INCHES) BASED ON
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE, FOR
KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS
THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/PIERCE=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 050851
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 161.9W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 161.9W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 161.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.6N 162.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.2N 163.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.1N 164.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.5N 164.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 163.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.1N 162.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 25.5N 163.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 28.1N 165.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 161.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/PIERCE=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 050427

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.09.2026

HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 118.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2026 0 20.7N 118.8W 968 64
1200UTC 05.09.2026 12 21.7N 120.1W 969 59
0000UTC 06.09.2026 24 22.9N 120.9W 974 55
1200UTC 06.09.2026 36 24.1N 121.8W 979 51
0000UTC 07.09.2026 48 25.0N 122.4W 984 44
1200UTC 07.09.2026 60 26.0N 122.6W 989 41
0000UTC 08.09.2026 72 27.1N 123.3W 994 35
1200UTC 08.09.2026 84 28.4N 123.5W 998 30
0000UTC 09.09.2026 96 30.0N 123.6W 1001 27
1200UTC 09.09.2026 108 32.1N 123.3W 1007 25
0000UTC 10.09.2026 120 35.3N 124.5W 1012 28
1200UTC 10.09.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 141.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2026 0 20.6N 141.9W 978 62
1200UTC 05.09.2026 12 21.0N 143.0W 984 52
0000UTC 06.09.2026 24 21.5N 144.0W 987 54
1200UTC 06.09.2026 36 22.0N 144.8W 992 45
0000UTC 07.09.2026 48 22.3N 146.1W 998 42
1200UTC 07.09.2026 60 22.6N 148.2W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.09.2026 72 23.2N 150.9W 1006 31
1200UTC 08.09.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 161.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2026 0 13.4N 161.0W 948 88
1200UTC 05.09.2026 12 13.3N 162.4W 947 86
0000UTC 06.09.2026 24 13.6N 163.5W 946 91
1200UTC 06.09.2026 36 14.2N 164.2W 949 85
0000UTC 07.09.2026 48 15.3N 164.5W 948 82
1200UTC 07.09.2026 60 16.7N 164.1W 953 80
0000UTC 08.09.2026 72 18.9N 163.2W 953 84
1200UTC 08.09.2026 84 21.8N 162.7W 965 70
0000UTC 09.09.2026 96 24.3N 162.9W 975 60
1200UTC 09.09.2026 108 25.8N 163.5W 986 52
0000UTC 10.09.2026 120 26.5N 164.6W 994 46
1200UTC 10.09.2026 132 27.0N 166.6W 1000 40
0000UTC 11.09.2026 144 27.8N 168.9W 1003 36
1200UTC 11.09.2026 156 28.7N 170.6W 1003 47
0000UTC 12.09.2026 168 29.8N 171.3W 1005 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 050427


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 036
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 13.2N 161.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 161.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.5N 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.8N 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.6N 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.6N 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.3N 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.8N 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.4N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 27.5N 164.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 161.5W. 05SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 924 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
050000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND
060400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 050248
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

Lowell remains an extremely impressive hurricane this afternoon.
Satellite imagery continues to show a warm and well-defined eye
surrounded by a very symmetric eyewall. The ring of very cold cloud
tops surrounding the eye has also expanded during the past few
hours, with temperatures generally between -70 and -75 C. Data from
a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure
has fallen about 8 mb since 18 UTC, with a recent minimum pressure
of 922 mb. The aircraft also measured maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds of 153 kt in the northeastern eyewall. Given the continued
strengthening and impressive satellite presentation, the initial
intensity is raised to 140 kt for this advisory, making Lowell a
Category 5 hurricane once again.

The initial motion is 275/6 kt. Lowell should continue generally
westward through Saturday while being steered by a mid-level ridge
to the north of the hurricane. On Sunday, the steering pattern is
expected to change as a mid- to upper-level low moves south to
southeastward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands and weakens the
subtropical ridge. This should cause Lowell to turn sharply
northward or north-northeastward and accelerate, bringing the
hurricane close to the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands Monday and
Monday night. There remains some uncertainty in exactly where and
how sharply Lowell makes this turn, which will depend on the
location and amplitude of the mid- to upper-level low relative to
the hurricane. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an
update from the previous advisory and lies between the simple
consensus (TVCN) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Some additional strengthening appears possible during the next 12 h.
Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain weak tonight while Lowell
remains over warm waters, and the recent pressure fall and
increasingly impressive satellite presentation suggest that the
hurricane could further intensify. Thereafter, some gradual
weakening is forecast as the hurricane begins to encounter
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The weakening rate
should increase by Sunday and Monday as the shear strengthens
considerably and Lowell moves over progressively cooler waters and
begins to entrain dry mid-level air. Despite the expected weakening,
Lowell is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches
the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands early next week. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is very close to the previous advisory and
remains above the guidance envelope through much of the period.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it
moves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday
night. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions
of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches
will likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local
officials.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Lowell will begin to
impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday afternoon and continue through
early next week. Periods of heavy rain may produce flash flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 13.3N 161.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 13.5N 162.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 14.6N 163.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 15.6N 164.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 17.3N 163.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 19.8N 163.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 24.4N 162.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 27.5N 164.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Pierce


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 050247
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 161.4W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 922 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 161.4W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 161.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.5N 162.3W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.6N 163.9W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.6N 164.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.3N 163.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.8N 163.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 24.4N 162.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 27.5N 164.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 161.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/PIERCE=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 050247
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST FRI SEP 04 2026

...LOWELL REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON...
...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS
PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 161.4W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LOWELL. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERNMOST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 161.4 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH (260 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES
(260 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 922 MB (27.23 INCHES) BASED ON A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE, FOR
KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS
THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS/PIERCE=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 160.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 160.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.2N 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.5N 162.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.0N 163.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.0N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.3N 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.4N 163.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.6N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 27.0N 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 160.8W. 04SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 930 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND
052200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 042039
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

Lowell has strengthened rapidly this morning. The eye of the
hurricane has become larger and more distinct with multiple
mesovortices evident in satellite images. In fact, the eye
temperature has increased significantly to around 20 C. In addition,
the convection in the eyewall is now notably more symmetric than it
was earlier. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that
Lowell is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale, with peak winds around 130 kt. Dropsonde data
suggests that the minimum pressure is around 926 mb. The initial
wind radii has been expanded in all quadrants based on the aircraft
data.

Lowell continues to lose some latitude this morning, with the
initial motion estimated to be 255/6 kt. A general westward motion
is expected through Saturday as the hurricane remains steered by the
flow on the southeastern side of a mid-level ridge. On Sunday, the
steering pattern is expected to change when a mid- to upper-level
low moves southwestward to the north of the Hawaiian Islands,
eroding the southern portion of the ridge. This pattern change
should cause a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast with a
gradual increase in forward speed, bringing the system close to the
westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Monday and Monday night. It should
be noted that predicting where and how sharply Lowell turns is
challenging as it will depend on the location and amplitude of the
mid- to upper-level low relative to the hurricane's location.
Overall, the guidance has not changed much this cycle, and the NHC
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one. This
prediction is in good agreement with the Google DeepMind ensemble
mean and simple consensus TVCN.

Lowell's rapid intensification episode could continue a little
longer since the hurricane has been maintaining a symmetric inner
core while remaining in conducive environmental conditions. Lowell
could regain category 5 intensity later today or tonight if this
intensification trend continues. However, a pronounced increase in
southerly or southwesterly vertical wind shear and progressively
cooler waters should promote a steady weakening trend beginning in
a couple of days. Although there is good confidence that Lowell
will be weakening when it nears the westernmost Hawaiian Islands,
it will very likely still be at or close to major hurricane
strength. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous
one and above the model guidance in the short term. However, it is
fairly similar to the past few advisories from 72 to 120 h.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when it
moves close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday
night. There is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts for portions
of Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week and watches
will likely be issued on Saturday. Residents should ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place and follow advice from local
officials.

2. Heavy rainfall will begin to impact the Hawaiian Islands Sunday
afternoon and continue through early next week. This rainfall could
produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep
terrain.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.2N 160.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 13.2N 161.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 13.5N 162.8W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 14.0N 163.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 15.0N 164.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 16.3N 163.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 18.4N 163.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 23.6N 162.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 27.0N 163.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Evans


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 042038
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lowell Advisory Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

...LOWELL IS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR ITS
PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 160.7W
ABOUT 615 MI...985 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Lowell. Watches could be required for portions of the westernmost
Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lowell was located
near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 160.7 West. Lowell is moving
toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion
with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next
day or so, followed by a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lowell is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional intensification is possible,
and Lowell could regain category 5 strength later today or tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
926 mb (27.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lowell can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44
PHFO.

RAINFALL: Lowell is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with maximum totals exceeding 10 inches possible, for Kauai
and the Big Island. For Maui, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. Across the
remaining islands, rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of
4 inches is possible. This rainfall may produce flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Lowell, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep12.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions during the next several days across
many of the Hawaiian islands. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Evans


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 042037
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 160.7W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 926 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 160.7W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 160.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.2N 161.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.5N 162.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.0N 163.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.0N 164.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 163.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.4N 163.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.6N 162.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.0N 163.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 160.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/EVANS=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 041600 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 033A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 033A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 159.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 159.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.2N 161.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.4N 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.8N 163.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.5N 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.7N 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.4N 163.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.2N 162.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.8N 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 160.2W.
04SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 947
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: REFLECTS SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES
FROM THE NHC SPECIAL ADVISORY.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 041826
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Special Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Lowell
and have found that hurricane has strengthened significantly. On
their first pass through the center they found a peak 700 mb
flight-level wind of 145 kt, which corresponds to an initial
intensity of roughly 130 kt. In addition, dropsonde data indicate
that the minimum pressure is around 930 mb. The major hurricane
could strengthen some more, and possibly regain category 5 intensity
later today or tonight. The new intensity forecast is notably
higher than the previous one in the short term, but is identical to
the prior forecast from 72 to 120 h.

No changes were made to the track or wind radii forecasts. The
next regular advisory will be issued by 11 AM HST/2100 UTC.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell could be near major hurricane strength when it moves
close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night.
Regardless of the hurricane's exact track and intensity, there is a
risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts for portions of
Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane
plan and supply kit in place. Watches are likely to be issued for a
portion of the state on Saturday.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1830Z 13.3N 160.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.2N 161.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 13.4N 162.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 14.5N 163.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 15.7N 163.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 17.4N 163.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 22.2N 162.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 26.8N 163.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Evans


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 041825
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 160.4W AT 04/1830Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 150SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 160.4W AT 04/1830Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 159.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.2N 161.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 162.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.5N 163.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 163.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 163.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.2N 162.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N 163.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 160.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/EVANS=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 041825
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2026

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT LOWELL HAS QUICKLY
STRENGTHENED...


SUMMARY OF 830 AM HST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 160.4W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LOWELL. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERNMOST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 830 AM HST (1830 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.4 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY.

DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOWELL IS
A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA COLLECTED BY THE AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 930 MB (27.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE, FOR
KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS
THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/EVANS=


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 041817
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Special Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Lowell
and have found that hurricane has strengthened significantly. On
their first pass through the center they found a peak 700 mb
flight-level wind of 145 kt, which corresponds to an initial
intensity of roughly 130 kt. In addition, dropsonde data indicate
that the minimum pressure is around 930 mb. The major hurricane
could strengthen some more, and possibly regain category 5 intensity
later today or tonight. The new intensity forecast is notably
higher than the previous one in the short term, but is identical to
the prior forecast from 72 to 120 h.

No changes were made to the track or wind radii forecasts. The
next regular advisory will be issued by 11 AM HST/2100 UTC.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell could be near major hurricane strength when it moves
close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night.
Regardless of the hurricane's exact track and intensity, there is a
risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts for portions of
Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane
plan and supply kit in place. Watches are likely to be issued for a
portion of the state on Saturday.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1830Z 13.2N 160.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.2N 161.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 13.4N 162.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 14.5N 163.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 15.7N 163.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 17.4N 163.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 22.2N 162.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 26.8N 163.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 041817
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 160.5W AT 04/1830Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 150SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 160.5W AT 04/1830Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 159.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.2N 161.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 162.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.5N 163.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 163.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 163.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.2N 162.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N 163.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 160.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/EVANS=


Original Message :

WTPA64 PHFO 041803
TCUCP4

Hurricane Lowell Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT LOWELL HAS
STRENGTHENED QUICKLY...

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating
Lowell and have found that the maximum winds have increased to
around 150 mph (240 km/h), making Lowell a category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

A Special Advisory with an updated intensity forecast will be
issued shortly.


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 160.4W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Evans


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 159.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 159.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.2N 161.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.4N 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.8N 163.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.5N 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.7N 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.4N 163.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.2N 162.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 26.8N 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 160.2W.
04SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 041448
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Sep 04 2026

There has not been any significant changes with Lowell over the past
several hours. The major hurricane is maintaining an eye in
satellite imagery with an intense ring of deep convection around the
center. The convective pattern is a little asymmetric with the
strongest thunderstorms currently occurring south of the center. The
latest satellite intensity estimates range from 102 to 120 kt, and
based on that data, the initial wind speed is held at 110 kt. The
Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Lowell
later today, and the information they collect will be very helpful
in assessing the cyclone's intensity and structure.

Lowell has been losing some latitude this morning, with the initial
motion estimated to be just south of due west, or 265/7 kt. A
general westward motion is expected through Saturday as Lowell
remains steered by the flow on the southeastern side of a mid-level
ridge. On Sunday, the steering pattern is expected to change when a
mid- to upper-level low moves southwestward north of the Hawaiian
Islands, eroding the southern portion of the ridge. This pattern
change should cause a sharp turn to the north or north-northeast
with a gradual increase in forward speed, bringing the system close
to the westernmost Hawaiian Islands on Monday and Monday night. It
should be noted that predicting where and how sharply Lowell turns
is challenging as it will depend on the location and amplitude of
the mid- to upper-level low relative to the hurricane's location.
Although the models agree on the overall setup and all show Lowell
turning, there is a notable amount of spread on how close the core
of Lowell gets to Kauai County. This forecast is quite similar to
the previous one and near a blend of the best-performing aids so far
this season, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and consensus aids
HCCA and TVCN.

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to be conducive
for strengthening over the next two to three days, and it seems
likely that Lowell will restrengthen back to a category 4 hurricane
during that period. Beyond that time, a notable increase in
southwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler waters should cause
steady weakening. However, Lowell is still forecast to be near major
hurricane strength when makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian
Islands. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the
model guidance, in best agreement with HCCA.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell could be near major hurricane strength when it moves
close to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night.
Regardless of the hurricane's exact track and intensity, there is a
risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts for portions of
Hawaii, particularly Kauai County, early next week.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane
plan and supply kit in place. Watches are likely to be issued for a
portion of the state on Saturday.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 13.3N 160.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 13.2N 161.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 13.4N 162.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 14.5N 163.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 15.7N 163.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 17.4N 163.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 22.2N 162.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 26.8N 163.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 041447
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST FRI SEP 04 2026

...LOWELL REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 160.1W
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LOWELL. WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERNMOST
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.1 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB (27.97 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

RAINFALL: HURRICANE LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE, FOR
KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. FOR MAUI, 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. ACROSS
THE REMAINING ISLANDS, RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE LOWELL, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP12.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 041446
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 160.1W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 160.1W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 159.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.2N 161.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.4N 162.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 163.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.5N 163.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 163.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 163.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.2N 162.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N 163.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 160.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 159.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 159.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.4N 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.5N 161.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.7N 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.3N 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.2N 164.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.6N 163.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 21.2N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 26.3N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 159.7W.
04SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 431 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040600Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.//
NNNN


0001127100
00001


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 040856
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026

Satellite images show that Lowell's eye has become less distinct
during the past several hours, though very deep convection is
ongoing in the eyewall. The infrared presentation also suggests
that Lowell has a double eyewall structure, which is confirmed by
overnight microwave data. The initial intensity is reduced to 110
kt on this advisory, reflective of a small decrease in the overall
Dvorak values and overall organization of the cloud pattern.

Lowell still has plenty of time for re-strengthening since it will
remain in a low-shear, warm-water environment for the next few
days. It should be noted that the wind shear has been higher
than expected, especially in the mid-levels, which is possibly
causing the sharp edge currently observed in the deep convection
in the eastern eyewall. However, this shear should abate by the
weekend, and there is a long window of generally favorable
conditions for the current eyewall replacement cycle to complete.
Thus, the new NHC forecast continues to show some
re-intensification, similar to the previous advisory and the
guidance mean. Around 72 h, Lowell is expected to encounter
increasing southwesterly shear that should cause weakening sometime
early next week. However, it is still forecast to be at major
hurricane strength when makes its closest approach to the Hawaiian
Islands.

There is no change to the initial motion of Lowell of 270/8 kt.
The hurricane should gradually slow down during the next day or so
due to a deepening mid- to upper-level trough north of the Hawaiian
Islands, which should cause a weaker subtropical ridge. By late
this weekend, the trough is forecast to break down the ridge,
causing Lowell to move faster to the north or north-northeast late
Sunday into Monday. This track would bring the center of Lowell
near or just west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late
Monday into early Tuesday. The guidance envelope has made a
westward shift on this advisory, seemingly due to a delayed
northward turn. The new NHC track forecast is nudged westward in
line with the latest consensus and Google DeepMind guidance, but it
should be noted that the long-range track details are still of
lower confidence.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it
moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and
Monday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact
track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane
plan and supply kit in place.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 13.4N 159.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 13.4N 160.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 13.5N 161.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 13.7N 163.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 14.3N 163.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 15.2N 164.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 16.6N 163.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 21.2N 162.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 26.3N 162.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 040854
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 159.6W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 150SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 159.6W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 159.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.4N 160.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.5N 161.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.7N 163.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.3N 163.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.2N 164.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.6N 163.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 21.2N 162.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 26.3N 162.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 159.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 040854
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST THU SEP 03 2026

...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LOWELL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 159.6W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LOWELL.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 159.6 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB (27.97 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS
MANY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 158.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 158.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.5N 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.6N 161.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.7N 162.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.1N 163.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.9N 163.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.2N 163.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 20.4N 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 25.7N 162.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 158.9W.
04SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 411 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 040245
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Sep 03 2026

Lowell's cloud pattern has lost a little organization since the
last advisory, with the eye becoming clouded over at the top and
the eyewall convective tops becoming warmer and less symmetric. A
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds of 116 kt, and data from the onboard radar showed winds near
125 kt at 0.5 km above the surface. The central pressure was near
943 mb. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is
reduced to a possibly generous 115 kt. Earlier microwave data
suggested the possibility that Lowell was undergoing an eyewall
replacement cycle (ERC), and the aircraft flight-level winds showed
an outer wind maxima in the northwestern semicircle. However, the
only recent microwave overpass was a partial hit that did not help
resolve whether the ERC was completing or not.

Lowell remains in a generally favorable environment of high
oceanic heat content and light shear, and these conditions should
persist during the next three days or so. This could allow some
re-intensification after the ERC completes, and some of the
intensity guidance shows strengthening between 24-48 h. The new
intensity forecast will do likewise and shows some modest
strengthening during this time. Starting at 72 h, Lowell is
expected to encounter increasing southwesterly shear that should
cause a substantial weakening. However, it is still forecast to be
at or near major hurricane strength when making its closest
approach to the Hawaiian Islands.

Lowell continues westward with an initial motion of 270/8 kt. The
ridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of days due to a
developing mid- to upper-level trough north of the Hawaiian
Islands, which is reflected in a forecast slower forward speed.
After 48 h, the trough will likely create a break in the ridge
that should cause Lowell to turn northward by 72 h and accelerate
northward to north-northeastward after 72 h. This track would
bring the center of Lowell near or just west of the westernmost
main Hawaiian Islands late Monday into early Tuesday. The track
guidance is more tightly clustered than it was 24 h ago, and the
track guidance envelope has changed little since the last advisory.
Based on this, the new forecast track is similar to the previous
track with only noise-level changes. However, the long-range track
details are still of lower confidence, and residents in the Hawaiian
Islands should closely monitor the latest NHC forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it
moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and
Monday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact
track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane
plan and supply kit in place.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.5N 158.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 13.5N 159.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 13.6N 161.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 13.7N 162.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 14.1N 163.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 14.9N 163.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 16.2N 163.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 20.4N 162.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 25.7N 162.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 040244
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST THU SEP 03 2026

...LOWELL MOVING WESTWARD AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LOWELL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 158.9W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LOWELL.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 158.9 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH THIS
WEEKEND.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB (27.85 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 040244
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 158.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 150SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 158.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 158.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.5N 159.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.6N 161.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.7N 162.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.1N 163.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.9N 163.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.2N 163.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 20.4N 162.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 25.7N 162.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 158.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 157.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 157.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.6N 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.7N 160.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.7N 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.0N 162.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.5N 163.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.5N 163.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.0N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.5N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 158.1W.
03SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031800Z IS 945 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 032037
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026

The cloud pattern of Lowell suggests the hurricane is contending
with some easterly shear. Upper-level outflow is limited on the
eastern side of Lowell, and satellite images today have shown
evidence of some dry air intrusions into the circulation. An 89-GHz
AMSR3 passive microwave image received just after the previous
advisory indicated an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) was underway,
with a larger outer eyewall surrounding a weaker inner one. This
is consistent with the larger eye now observed in recent visible
images of the hurricane. Lowell remains a formidable major
hurricane, and the latest Dvorak CI numbers along with recent
D-PRINT and SATCON estimates support holding a 120-kt intensity.

Lowell is moving over very warm waters with high oceanic heat
content, and the environmental and oceanic conditions appear
favorable for Lowell to maintain its intensity or strengthen
slightly during the next several days. Although it has experienced a
bit more easterly shear than expected today, the hurricane has been
resilient. In general, the intensity guidance shows little
appreciable change in intensity during the next few days, with small
fluctuations likely to occur related to internal dynamic processes
with limited predictability, such as future ERCs. Thus, the NHC
intensity forecast maintains Lowell as a major hurricane with no net
change through 72 h. By days 4-5, some weakening is predicted as
southwesterly vertical wind shear increases over Lowell. However, it
is still forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
making its closest approach to the Hawaiian Islands.

The hurricane continues moving westward (275/9 kt) to the south of a
mid-level ridge over the Central Pacific. A gradually slower
westward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Then, a
mid- to upper-level trough over the northern Pacific is forecast to
dig southward and erode the steering ridge. As a result, Lowell is
predicted to turn sharply toward the north or north-northeast this
weekend, and then accelerate northward early next week. This track
should bring the center of Lowell near or just west of the
westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday into early Tuesday.
There is less spread noted in the track guidance envelope at days
3-5, and the NHC forecast remains between the simple (TVCN) and
corrected (HCCA) consensus aids. However, the long-range track
details are of lower confidence, and residents in the Hawaiian
Islands should closely monitor the latest NHC forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it
moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and
Monday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact
track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane
plan and supply kit in place.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.6N 158.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 13.6N 159.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 13.7N 160.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 13.7N 161.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 14.0N 162.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 14.5N 163.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 15.5N 163.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 19.0N 162.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 24.5N 162.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 032036
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST THU SEP 03 2026

...LOWELL EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...
...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF LOWELL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 158.1W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM S OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
LOWELL.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 158.1 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH (220 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB (27.91 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR LOWELL CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA44
PHFO.

SURF: SWELLS FROM LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 032035
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 158.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 120SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 158.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 157.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.6N 159.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.7N 160.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.7N 161.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.0N 162.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.5N 163.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.5N 163.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 162.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.5N 162.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 158.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031637

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.09.2026

HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 114.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2026 0 18.8N 114.5W 983 50
0000UTC 04.09.2026 12 19.5N 116.0W 981 52
1200UTC 04.09.2026 24 20.2N 117.5W 979 53
0000UTC 05.09.2026 36 20.9N 119.1W 978 58
1200UTC 05.09.2026 48 22.0N 119.8W 979 53
0000UTC 06.09.2026 60 23.3N 120.3W 979 54
1200UTC 06.09.2026 72 24.7N 120.7W 983 48
0000UTC 07.09.2026 84 25.6N 120.8W 987 44
1200UTC 07.09.2026 96 26.3N 120.5W 993 35
0000UTC 08.09.2026 108 27.6N 120.4W 997 34
1200UTC 08.09.2026 120 28.6N 119.7W 1001 27
0000UTC 09.09.2026 132 30.3N 119.2W 1004 26
1200UTC 09.09.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 136.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2026 0 19.7N 136.3W 963 77
0000UTC 04.09.2026 12 19.9N 138.3W 969 66
1200UTC 04.09.2026 24 20.2N 139.8W 975 61
0000UTC 05.09.2026 36 20.7N 141.6W 979 60
1200UTC 05.09.2026 48 21.2N 143.3W 982 56
0000UTC 06.09.2026 60 21.9N 144.6W 984 56
1200UTC 06.09.2026 72 22.7N 145.8W 990 52
0000UTC 07.09.2026 84 23.4N 147.5W 996 45
1200UTC 07.09.2026 96 24.0N 149.9W 1003 37
0000UTC 08.09.2026 108 25.0N 153.2W 1006 35
1200UTC 08.09.2026 120 27.1N 157.5W 1009 34
0000UTC 09.09.2026 132 30.8N 159.7W 1012 38
1200UTC 09.09.2026 144 33.3N 161.7W 1009 43
0000UTC 10.09.2026 156 33.8N 162.8W 1014 33
1200UTC 10.09.2026 168 33.8N 165.0W 1016 30

HURRICANE LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 156.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2026 0 13.5N 156.6W 944 91
0000UTC 04.09.2026 12 13.9N 158.5W 960 79
1200UTC 04.09.2026 24 13.8N 160.3W 966 70
0000UTC 05.09.2026 36 13.5N 161.7W 966 67
1200UTC 05.09.2026 48 13.4N 163.0W 960 80
0000UTC 06.09.2026 60 13.5N 164.1W 961 71
1200UTC 06.09.2026 72 13.9N 164.8W 960 78
0000UTC 07.09.2026 84 14.7N 164.9W 960 68
1200UTC 07.09.2026 96 16.0N 164.2W 960 69
0000UTC 08.09.2026 108 18.3N 163.4W 956 78
1200UTC 08.09.2026 120 20.7N 162.7W 970 67
0000UTC 09.09.2026 132 23.0N 162.7W 984 53
1200UTC 09.09.2026 144 24.2N 163.9W 994 42
0000UTC 10.09.2026 156 24.5N 166.1W 1000 37
1200UTC 10.09.2026 168 24.2N 169.0W 1004 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 43.3N 15.8E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2026 168 43.3N 15.8E 1000 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031636


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 156.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 156.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.5N 158.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.6N 159.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.7N 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.9N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.3N 162.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.1N 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.6N 162.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 22.7N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 157.2W.
03SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 389 NM
SOUTH OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 031200Z IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.//
NNNN


0001107900
00001


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 031450
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Sep 03 2026

Lowell is still a powerful hurricane with a warm eye that is
apparent in infrared and proxy-visible satellite images. Overnight
WSF-M passive microwave data showed some thinning of the convection
in the eastern portion of the eyewall, possibly the result of some
intrusion of drier mid-level air. However, recent conventional
satellite imagery shows colder cloud tops and a slightly thicker
ring of convection surrounding the center. Based on a blend of the
Dvorak current intensity (CI) estimates from JTWC and HFO, the
initial intensity is set at 120 kt for this advisory. The 34-kt wind
radii were expanded, particularly on the north side of the
hurricane, based on overnight scatterometer data. Another NOAA
aircraft research mission into Lowell is scheduled for later today.

The hurricane will move over warm waters while in a weaker shear
environment during the next few days. These conducive environmental
and oceanic conditions favor Lowell maintaining its major hurricane
intensity, even as internal structural changes like eyewall
replacement cycles commence. Since these types of changes are
extremely difficult to predict, the NHC intensity forecast follows a
similar approach as the previous prediction and shows no net change
through the end of the week (though some small fluctuations are
expected). By the weekend, southwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to increase over Lowell, which should induce some weakening
along with a more asymmetric wind structure.

Lowell is being steered westward (270/9 kt) by a mid-level ridge to
its north over the Central Pacific. A continued westward motion is
expected during the next couple of days. Then, the forecast becomes
more challenging as a mid- to upper-level trough over the northern
Pacific digs southward and erodes the steering ridge. This will
cause Lowell to turn sharply northward or north-northeastward this
weekend and then accelerate generally toward the north early next
week, passing near or west of the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands
by day 5. The updated NHC track forecast lies between the corrected
(HCCA) and simple (TVCN) track consensus aids, showing a sharper
turn at days 3-4 but similar to the previous NHC prediction at day
5. Remember that the average track errors at days 4-5 are around 150
n mi and 200 n mi, respectively. There is lower confidence in the
long-range track forecast details, and future adjustments may be
required. Residents in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest NHC
forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lowell could be at or near major hurricane strength when it
moves near the westernmost main Hawaiian Islands late Monday and
Monday night. While it is still too soon to determine the exact
track of the hurricane, Lowell could bring storm surge, wind, and
rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii early next week.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to
the advice of local officials, and ensure they have their hurricane
plan and supply kit in place.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to increase
early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.5N 157.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.5N 158.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 13.6N 159.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 13.7N 161.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 13.9N 162.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 14.3N 162.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 15.1N 163.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 17.6N 162.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 22.7N 162.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 031449
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 157.2W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....280NE 150SE 170SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 157.2W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 156.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.5N 158.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.6N 159.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.7N 161.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.9N 162.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.3N 162.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.1N 163.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 17.6N 162.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.7N 162.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 157.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 13.3N 155.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 155.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.4N 157.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.5N 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.6N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.7N 161.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.0N 162.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.5N 163.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.5N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 20.2N 162.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 156.4W.
03SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 386 NM
SOUTH OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030600Z IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 030858
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026

Lowell's satellite presentation has continued to weaken this
evening, with some thinning of the eyewall convection, though it
remains a formidable hurricane. The latest Dvorak intensity
estimates have a wide range, from 102-125 kt. Based on continuity
from the earlier higher NOAA Hurricane Hunter data, the initial
intensity is set to 125 kt. Lowell should remain in a low-shear,
warm-water environment for at least the next few days. While the
new forecast shows no net changes, we expect fluctuations in
intensity both up and down, dependent on nearly impossible to
predict eyewall replacement cycles. Vertical wind shear should
increase some by the end of the forecast period, so a more steady
weakening is shown by that time.

The initial motion remains 270/9 kt. Lowell is being steered by a
low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and due to this feature
the hurricane should continue moving westward for the next 2-3
days. After that, the track of the hurricane will be controlled by
a complex developing mid- to upper-level trough currently seen in
water vapor imagery near 32N 162W. The feature is forecast to break
the ridge down over the weekend, which should cause Lowell to turn
sharply northward or north-northeastward. However, the details of
this turn are extremely difficult to diagnose at this time frame,
and there is a wide range of possibilities. The new NHC forecast is
a bit left of the last one in a few days time, but ends up very
close to the previous forecast at day 5. Given the large spread,
this is a low-confidence prediction for early next week.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The details of Lowell's long-range track and intensity forecasts
are more uncertain than usual, and it is too soon to determine
potential impacts in the Hawaiian Islands.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through this upcoming weekend. This is a good
time for all residents to ensure they have their hurricane plan and
supply kit in place.

3. Swells from Lowell are expected to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands
during the next several days. Depending on the exact track of the
storm, these swells are likely to increase early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 13.3N 156.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 13.4N 157.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 13.5N 159.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 13.6N 160.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 13.7N 161.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 14.0N 162.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 14.5N 163.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 16.5N 164.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 20.2N 162.6W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 030857
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST WED SEP 02 2026

...LOWELL FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 156.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 156.3 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB (27.79 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030421

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.09.2026

HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 134.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2026 0 19.1N 134.3W 945 90
1200UTC 03.09.2026 12 19.8N 136.4W 965 72
0000UTC 04.09.2026 24 20.1N 138.5W 972 63
1200UTC 04.09.2026 36 20.3N 140.5W 978 59
0000UTC 05.09.2026 48 20.6N 142.3W 981 59
1200UTC 05.09.2026 60 21.2N 144.0W 982 56
0000UTC 06.09.2026 72 22.1N 145.3W 983 59
1200UTC 06.09.2026 84 23.1N 146.4W 989 50
0000UTC 07.09.2026 96 24.4N 147.5W 995 45
1200UTC 07.09.2026 108 26.0N 149.1W 1001 37
0000UTC 08.09.2026 120 27.8N 151.0W 1005 36
1200UTC 08.09.2026 132 30.0N 153.4W 1009 35
0000UTC 09.09.2026 144 33.0N 154.7W 1006 48
1200UTC 09.09.2026 156 35.9N 154.8W 1007 40
0000UTC 10.09.2026 168 36.5N 155.8W 1013 31

HURRICANE MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 113.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2026 0 18.4N 113.0W 990 47
1200UTC 03.09.2026 12 18.9N 114.6W 985 43
0000UTC 04.09.2026 24 19.7N 116.1W 984 46
1200UTC 04.09.2026 36 20.3N 117.8W 984 47
0000UTC 05.09.2026 48 20.9N 119.1W 985 47
1200UTC 05.09.2026 60 21.7N 119.7W 984 47
0000UTC 06.09.2026 72 22.9N 120.4W 985 49
1200UTC 06.09.2026 84 24.2N 121.2W 987 46
0000UTC 07.09.2026 96 25.0N 121.3W 990 39
1200UTC 07.09.2026 108 25.1N 121.7W 995 34
0000UTC 08.09.2026 120 25.7N 122.3W 998 36
1200UTC 08.09.2026 132 26.0N 123.1W 1001 27
0000UTC 09.09.2026 144 27.0N 123.3W 1003 25
1200UTC 09.09.2026 156 28.5N 123.3W 1005 23
0000UTC 10.09.2026 168 31.0N 122.4W 1009 21

HURRICANE LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 154.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2026 0 13.2N 154.8W 948 92
1200UTC 03.09.2026 12 13.7N 156.8W 957 77
0000UTC 04.09.2026 24 13.9N 158.9W 957 80
1200UTC 04.09.2026 36 13.8N 160.7W 958 76
0000UTC 05.09.2026 48 13.5N 162.1W 958 75
1200UTC 05.09.2026 60 13.4N 163.3W 953 81
0000UTC 06.09.2026 72 13.5N 164.3W 956 77
1200UTC 06.09.2026 84 13.8N 165.1W 957 78
0000UTC 07.09.2026 96 14.5N 165.4W 957 73
1200UTC 07.09.2026 108 15.7N 165.2W 962 66
0000UTC 08.09.2026 120 17.2N 164.8W 961 73
1200UTC 08.09.2026 132 19.4N 164.0W 952 84
0000UTC 09.09.2026 144 21.9N 163.9W 963 77
1200UTC 09.09.2026 156 24.4N 164.3W 972 70
0000UTC 10.09.2026 168 26.4N 165.1W 987 52

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 34.4N 55.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2026 156 35.3N 52.7W 1015 31
0000UTC 10.09.2026 168 36.0N 48.9W 1014 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 42.4N 16.8E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2026 168 42.4N 16.8E 1007 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030421


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 154.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 154.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.4N 156.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.5N 158.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.5N 159.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.6N 160.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 13.7N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.2N 162.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.5N 163.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.6N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 155.3W.
03SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
SOUTH OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 932 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 030244
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026


Since the last advisory, Lowell's satellite signature has decayed,
with the cloud tops in the eyewall warming and the eye becoming
less distinct. This has been accompanied by a decrease in satellite
intensity estimates. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported
700-mb flight-level winds of 135 kt and a minimum central pressure
near 932-933 mb. Based on these data and continuity from the
previous advisory, the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly
generous 135 kt. Satellite imagery gives the impression that the
hurricane is being affected by easterly shear. However, if this is
the case, the source of the shear is a bit mysterious, as the
available shear diagnostics show shear of less than 10 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/9 kt. Currently, Lowell is being
steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and due to this
the hurricane should continue moving westward for the next 2-3
days. After that, the track of the hurricane will be controlled by
a developing mid- to upper-level trough or low currently seen in
water vapor imagery near 32N 164W. During the next several days,
the global models forecast this feature to move eastward or
southeastward toward the Hawaiian Islands, then turn westward to
the north of Lowell. While this will break down the ridge north of
Lowell and allow it to turn northward, there is a wide spread of
possibilities of when and where this turn will occur. The model
consensus has again shifted a little eastward at day 4-5, and the
new forecast track is again nudged a little eastward at these times.

The hurricane is expected to stay in a favorable environment of
high oceanic heat content and low shear for at least the next three
days. However, the intensity guidance calls for slow decay during
this time despite the favorable environment. Based on this, the
intensity forecast also calls for slow decay. It is likely, though,
that eyewall replacement cycles will cause fluctuations in
intensity superimposed on the slow decay. Near the end of the
forecast period, Lowell should start experiencing increasing shear
caused by the upper-level trough, and a more pronounced weakening
may begin around day 5. There remains high confidence that Lowell
will remain a major hurricane through the weekend.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The details of Lowell's long-range track and intensity forecasts
are more uncertain than usual, and it is too soon to determine
potential impacts in the Hawaiian Islands.

2. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the
progress of Lowell through this upcoming weekend. This is a good
time for all residents to ensure they have their hurricane plan and
supply kit in place.

3. Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions in portions of the Hawaiian Islands during
the next several days. Depending on the exact track of the storm,
these swells are likely to increase early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 13.3N 155.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.4N 156.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 13.5N 158.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 13.5N 159.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 13.6N 160.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 13.7N 162.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 14.2N 162.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 15.5N 163.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 18.6N 162.7W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 030243
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 155.2W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 120SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 155.2W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 154.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.4N 156.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.5N 158.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.5N 159.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.6N 160.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.7N 162.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.2N 162.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 163.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 18.6N 162.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 155.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 030243
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST WED SEP 02 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS LOWELL IS NOW A CATEGORY
4 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 155.2W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.2 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 933 MB (27.55 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD AND WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 026
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 153.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 153.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.4N 155.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.5N 157.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.6N 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.7N 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 13.8N 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.1N 162.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.1N 163.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.4N 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 154.3W.
02SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 021800Z IS 927 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030400Z, 031000Z, 031600Z AND 032200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 022033
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026

Lowell has continued to rapidly intensify over the Central Pacific
today. The compact hurricane has maintained a very warm, circular
eye with a diameter of 15 n mi for the past several hours. A
symmetric ring of very deep convection surrounds the eye with cold
cloud tops of -70 to -75 deg C. The subjective Dvorak and objective
UW-CIMSS estimates have risen since the prior advisory, with a
T7.0/140 kt classification from JTWC along with recent AiDT and
D-PRINT estimates around 140 kt. Based on these developments, Lowell
has become a Category 5 hurricane with an initial intensity of 140
kt. A NOAA aircraft research mission is scheduled to collect data in
Lowell later today.

Since the hurricane is moving over a region of very high oceanic
heat content in a low shear environment, further near-term
intensification remains possible. An eyewall replacement cycle
(ERC) would be expected to commence in the near future, but the
latest available passive microwave images did not suggest an ERC is
underway. These favorable environmental and oceanic conditions are
expected to persist for the next several days, meaning that Lowell
is likely to remain a major hurricane while internal dynamic
processes like ERCs modulate its intensity fluctuations. The NHC
intensity forecast remains on the high side of the latest guidance
and follows the multi-model consensus aids, trending closer to IVCN
later in the period. There is high confidence that Lowell will
remain a major hurricane through the weekend.

Lowell is moving just south of due west (265/9 kt). This motion is
expected to continue with a gradually slower forward speed during
the next few days as Lowell moves to the south of a mid-level ridge
over the Central Pacific. A cutoff mid- to upper-level low is
forecast to drop southwestward from the North Pacific and weaken the
steering ridge this weekend. Then, a sharp turn toward the north or
north-northeast is forecast at days 4-5 while Lowell interacts with
this upper-level feature. There is large spread in the various
models and ensemble solutions regarding how sharp of a turn occurs,
but once again the overall trend has been an eastward shift in the
long-range track envelope. Thus, the updated NHC track forecast
was adjusted to the right of the previous prediction at 96-120 h.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 13.3N 154.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 13.4N 155.6W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 13.5N 157.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 13.6N 158.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 13.7N 160.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 13.8N 161.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 14.1N 162.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 15.1N 163.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 17.4N 163.2W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 022032
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST WED SEP 02 2026

...LOWELL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 154.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 154.3 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH (260 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 927 MB (27.38 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD AND WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 022032
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 154.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 154.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 153.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.4N 155.6W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.5N 157.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.6N 158.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.7N 160.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.8N 161.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.09.2026

HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 132.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2026 0 18.8N 132.4W 937 92
0000UTC 03.09.2026 12 19.2N 134.5W 964 69
1200UTC 03.09.2026 24 19.7N 136.3W 977 60
0000UTC 04.09.2026 36 20.2N 138.4W 977 64
1200UTC 04.09.2026 48 20.6N 140.5W 978 60
0000UTC 05.09.2026 60 21.0N 142.6W 982 58
1200UTC 05.09.2026 72 21.6N 144.3W 983 53
0000UTC 06.09.2026 84 22.6N 145.4W 983 61
1200UTC 06.09.2026 96 23.9N 146.4W 989 51
0000UTC 07.09.2026 108 25.9N 147.5W 994 46
1200UTC 07.09.2026 120 28.0N 149.4W 1000 40
0000UTC 08.09.2026 132 30.3N 152.2W 1006 36
1200UTC 08.09.2026 144 33.3N 154.8W 1006 38
0000UTC 09.09.2026 156 37.3N 156.8W 1010 36
1200UTC 09.09.2026 168 41.5N 158.0W 1010 35

TROPICAL STORM MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 111.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2026 0 17.0N 111.6W 995 40
0000UTC 03.09.2026 12 18.5N 113.2W 989 46
1200UTC 03.09.2026 24 18.9N 114.6W 984 46
0000UTC 04.09.2026 36 19.6N 116.2W 982 49
1200UTC 04.09.2026 48 20.1N 117.6W 981 51
0000UTC 05.09.2026 60 21.0N 118.8W 980 54
1200UTC 05.09.2026 72 22.3N 119.6W 982 52
0000UTC 06.09.2026 84 24.1N 120.5W 984 50
1200UTC 06.09.2026 96 25.0N 120.9W 989 41
0000UTC 07.09.2026 108 26.0N 120.8W 993 37
1200UTC 07.09.2026 120 26.5N 120.5W 998 30
0000UTC 08.09.2026 132 27.1N 120.5W 1001 29
1200UTC 08.09.2026 144 27.6N 120.4W 1004 24
0000UTC 09.09.2026 156 28.6N 120.2W 1005 22
1200UTC 09.09.2026 168 30.1N 119.8W 1007 23

HURRICANE LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 152.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2026 0 13.6N 152.7W 959 75
0000UTC 03.09.2026 12 13.5N 155.1W 959 79
1200UTC 03.09.2026 24 13.6N 157.2W 957 78
0000UTC 04.09.2026 36 13.8N 159.2W 959 80
1200UTC 04.09.2026 48 13.6N 160.8W 961 76
0000UTC 05.09.2026 60 13.5N 162.4W 958 73
1200UTC 05.09.2026 72 13.4N 163.8W 953 82
0000UTC 06.09.2026 84 13.5N 165.1W 948 89
1200UTC 06.09.2026 96 13.7N 166.2W 950 86
0000UTC 07.09.2026 108 14.0N 167.1W 949 83
1200UTC 07.09.2026 120 14.5N 167.5W 955 76
0000UTC 08.09.2026 132 15.4N 167.6W 957 75
1200UTC 08.09.2026 144 17.0N 167.3W 957 77
0000UTC 09.09.2026 156 19.0N 167.6W 956 77
1200UTC 09.09.2026 168 21.3N 168.2W 956 79

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 13.3N 110.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2026 168 13.5N 111.4W 1005 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021622


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 152.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 152.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.5N 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.6N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.8N 158.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 13.9N 159.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 13.9N 161.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.0N 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.6N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.5N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 153.4W. 02SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 021200Z IS 937 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z AND 031600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 021449
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026

The rapid intensification of Lowell has continued early this
morning. The compact hurricane has a circular, 15 n-mi-wide eye
surrounded by a symmetric ring of deep convection with cloud tops as
cold as -70 to -80 deg C. This impressive structure has led to an
increase in the satellite intensity estimates, with JTWC and HFO
recently providing T6.5/127 kt Dvorak estimates. Meanwhile, the
latest AiDT and D-MINT objective estimates from CIMSS have climbed
above 130 kt. Since the satellite presentation continues to improve
and the eye of Lowell has warmed during the past couple of hours,
the initial intensity is raised to 135 kt.

Lowell will move within conducive large-scale environmental and
oceanic conditions for the next several days. With no signs yet of
the commencement of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), some
additional near-term strengthening is forecast, and Lowell could
reach category 5 intensity later today or tonight. Over the next
several days, the intensity of the hurricane will be modulated by
internal dynamic processes like ERCs. The NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and remains on the high side of the
latest guidance. There is high confidence that Lowell will remain a
major hurricane through the forecast period.

The hurricane is moving westward (270/9 kt). A mid-level ridge over
the Central Pacific should steer Lowell westward for the next few
days at a gradually slower forward speed. Only minor southward
adjustments were made to the early part of the NHC forecast to
account for current motion trends. An erosion of the steering ridge
by a mid- to upper-level trough or cutoff low is forecast this
weekend, which should cause Lowell to slow down further and turn
sharply northward at days 4-5. The track guidance has shifted
eastward for this portion of the forecast, and the NHC prediction
was adjusted to the right of the previous track in response. There
remains large model spread and above average uncertainty regarding
the details of this anticipated northward turn, so interests in
Hawaii should monitor the latest forecast updates.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 13.4N 153.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 13.5N 154.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 13.6N 156.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.8N 158.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 159.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 13.9N 161.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 14.0N 162.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 14.6N 164.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 164.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 021449
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST WED SEP 02 2026

...LOWELL CONTINUES RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...FORECAST TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 153.2W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 153.2 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE, AND LOWELL COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB (27.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 021448
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 153.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 130SE 115SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 153.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 152.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.5N 154.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.6N 156.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 158.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 159.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 161.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.0N 162.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 14.6N 164.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 164.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 153.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 151.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 151.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.6N 153.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.7N 155.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.9N 157.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.0N 159.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.0N 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.0N 161.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.3N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.6N 164.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 152.4W. 02SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 020600Z IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 020852
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

Satellite imagery shows that Lowell is a well-organized, compact
hurricane that has continued to intensify since the last advisory.
The initial intensity is set to 125 kt, between a blend of the
various subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from 118-137 kt.
Lowell has undergone an impressive 65-kt very rapid intensification
during the last 24 hours, and it should remain in generally
conducive large-scale conditions of warm water and light shear for
the next several days. The storm could even make category 5
intensity on Wednesday before a series of eyewall replacement
cycles likely commence by Thursday. The intensity forecast is
raised in the short term, but otherwise is similar to the previous
one, on the higher side of the guidance envelope. There is a high
likelihood that Lowell will remain a powerful hurricane for days to
come, with the intensity governed largely by internal dynamics
(like eyewall replacements).

The initial motion is westward at 10 kt. A westward motion is
anticipated during the next several days due to a mid-level ridge
over the Central Pacific. By Sunday, an upper-level trough is
expected to weaken the ridge, causing Lowell to slow down and take a
more northward turn, though there is considerable uncertainty on
how sharp that turn might be. Similar to the last advisory, the
official track forecast is nudged slightly southward, near the HCCA
and GDMI track aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 13.5N 152.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.6N 153.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 13.7N 155.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 13.9N 157.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 14.0N 159.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 14.0N 160.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 14.0N 161.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 14.3N 164.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 15.6N 164.7W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 020845
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 01 2026

...LOWELL FORECAST TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 152.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 152.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LOWELL COULD FURTHER
STRENGTHEN ON WEDNESDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL
HURRICANE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB (27.79 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 020845
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 152.2W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....165NE 120SE 105SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 152.2W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 151.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.6N 153.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.7N 155.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.9N 157.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 159.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 160.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.0N 161.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 14.3N 164.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.6N 164.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 152.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 020425

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 94.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2026 0 30.0N 94.2W 1008 26
1200UTC 02.09.2026 12 31.2N 95.1W 1011 18
0000UTC 03.09.2026 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 110.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2026 0 15.7N 110.3W 998 41
1200UTC 02.09.2026 12 17.1N 111.9W 996 40
0000UTC 03.09.2026 24 17.8N 113.2W 991 43
1200UTC 03.09.2026 36 18.7N 114.9W 985 46
0000UTC 04.09.2026 48 19.3N 116.6W 981 49
1200UTC 04.09.2026 60 20.1N 118.0W 980 50
0000UTC 05.09.2026 72 21.3N 119.2W 979 52
1200UTC 05.09.2026 84 22.5N 120.0W 981 53
0000UTC 06.09.2026 96 24.2N 120.4W 984 49
1200UTC 06.09.2026 108 25.6N 120.5W 989 41
0000UTC 07.09.2026 120 26.4N 120.0W 993 36
1200UTC 07.09.2026 132 27.9N 119.1W 997 30
0000UTC 08.09.2026 144 29.1N 118.3W 999 30
1200UTC 08.09.2026 156 30.5N 118.3W 1004 24
0000UTC 09.09.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 130.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2026 0 18.2N 130.5W 942 88
1200UTC 02.09.2026 12 18.7N 132.3W 960 73
0000UTC 03.09.2026 24 19.3N 134.4W 971 63
1200UTC 03.09.2026 36 19.7N 136.5W 980 57
0000UTC 04.09.2026 48 20.0N 138.5W 979 61
1200UTC 04.09.2026 60 20.4N 140.5W 979 56
0000UTC 05.09.2026 72 21.1N 142.7W 983 57
1200UTC 05.09.2026 84 21.7N 145.0W 985 51
0000UTC 06.09.2026 96 22.6N 146.6W 985 62
1200UTC 06.09.2026 108 23.7N 148.0W 991 46
0000UTC 07.09.2026 120 25.6N 149.5W 994 49
1200UTC 07.09.2026 132 28.4N 151.3W 997 46
0000UTC 08.09.2026 144 31.2N 154.1W 1001 43
1200UTC 08.09.2026 156 35.5N 156.9W 1002 43
0000UTC 09.09.2026 168 39.2N 158.3W 1003 45

HURRICANE LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 150.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2026 0 13.4N 150.9W 949 90
1200UTC 02.09.2026 12 13.5N 153.0W 953 85
0000UTC 03.09.2026 24 13.6N 155.4W 949 89
1200UTC 03.09.2026 36 13.9N 157.6W 949 89
0000UTC 04.09.2026 48 14.2N 159.6W 956 80
1200UTC 04.09.2026 60 14.1N 161.3W 959 77
0000UTC 05.09.2026 72 13.9N 162.9W 958 74
1200UTC 05.09.2026 84 13.8N 164.1W 956 82
0000UTC 06.09.2026 96 13.9N 164.8W 953 82
1200UTC 06.09.2026 108 14.2N 165.7W 961 73
0000UTC 07.09.2026 120 14.7N 165.8W 962 67
1200UTC 07.09.2026 132 15.6N 165.5W 963 62
0000UTC 08.09.2026 144 17.0N 164.9W 962 72
1200UTC 08.09.2026 156 18.9N 163.9W 953 86
0000UTC 09.09.2026 168 20.9N 163.4W 962 73

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.8N 95.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2026 156 29.5N 96.9W 1003 29
0000UTC 09.09.2026 168 31.1N 99.1W 1007 21


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020425


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 150.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 150.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.5N 152.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.6N 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.9N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.0N 158.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.2N 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.2N 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.5N 163.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.6N 164.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 151.4W.02SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 447 NMSOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PASTSIX HOURS.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS
957 MB. MAXIMUMSIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 020237
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

Lowell's satellite presentation continues to improve, characteristic
of a rapidly intensifying cyclone. Deep, cold convection is wrapping
around a fluctuating eye on infrared and visible satellite imagery.
Over the past few hours, lightning activity has also increased
within the eyewall. Objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates continue to rise as they attempt to catch up with the
ongoing rapid intensification. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate
from HFO was T5.5, but was constrained, with a Data-T of 6.0/115 kt.
Based on these estimates and the continued improving satellite
trends, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this advisory.

Lowell remains within a favorable environment characterized by warm
sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. The system is
likely to continue strengthening and is expected to remain a major
hurricane throughout the remainder of the forecast period. However,
fluctuations in intensity are possible due to internal structural
changes, such as eyewall replacement cycles. Based on current
conditions and recent trends, the official NHC intensity forecast
remains near the upper end of the guidance suite.

The initial motion is westward, or 275/9 kt. A westward to
west-northwestward motion should continue throughout much of the
forecast period as Lowell is steered by a mid-level ridge located to
the north. The official track forecast has once again been adjusted
slightly southward during this time frame, trending closer to the
HCCA and GDMI track aids. Toward the end of the forecast period,
track uncertainty increases. An upper-level trough approaching from
the west is forecast to move north of the Hawaiian Islands,
weakening the aforementioned ridge. This evolution will cause Lowell
to decelerate and begin turning toward the northwest or north late
in the period. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to
closely monitor Lowell's progress.

Key Messages:

1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 13.5N 151.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.5N 152.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 13.6N 154.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 13.9N 156.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 14.0N 158.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 14.2N 159.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 161.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 14.5N 163.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 15.6N 164.4W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 020236
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 151.2W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 105SE 105SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 151.2W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 150.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.5N 152.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.6N 154.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.9N 156.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.0N 158.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N 159.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 161.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 163.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.6N 164.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 151.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 020236
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST TUE SEP 01 2026

...LOWELL STRENGTHENING AND MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 151.2W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 151.2 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LOWELL IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB (28.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 020100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 021A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 021A AMENDED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 150.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 150.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.5N 152.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.6N 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.9N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.0N 158.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.2N 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.2N 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.5N 163.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.6N 164.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 151.4W.
02SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 447 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: REFLECTS SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
CHANGES FROM THE NHC SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 020100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 021A//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 021AAA
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 150.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 150.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.5N 152.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.6N 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.9N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.0N 158.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.2N 159.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.2N 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.5N 163.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.6N 164.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 151.4W.
02SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 447 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 020000Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 012322
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Special Discussion Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026


The satellite presentation of Lowell has improved the last several
hours. A deep ring of cold convection wraps around a small eye
feature that is becoming more evident in infrared and satellite
imagery. Objective intensity estimates have been steadily increasing
the last few hours. The initial intensity has been raised to 110 kt,
making Lowell a major category 3 hurricane, and is rapidly
intensifying.

Lowell remains within a favorable environment with warm sea surface
temperatures, and low wind shear. Lowell is likely to continue
strengthening, and remain a major hurricane throughout the
remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast
was adjusted upward, given the recent satellite trends and current
conditions.

There were no changes made to the track forecast with this advisory,
with the west-northwestward to westward motion anticipated to
continue over the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0000Z 13.5N 150.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.7N 151.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.8N 153.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 14.0N 155.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.2N 157.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 14.4N 159.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 14.5N 160.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 14.7N 163.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 15.3N 164.9W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 012321
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lowell Special Advisory Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

...LOWELL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 150.7W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lowell was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 150.7 West. Lowell is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west to west-northwest
motion is expected to continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lowell is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast and
Lowell is expected to remain a major hurricane the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lowell are likely to affect portions of
the Hawaiian Islands beginning on Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 012320
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0000 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 150.7W AT 02/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 150.7W AT 02/0000Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 149.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.7N 151.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 153.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 155.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.2N 157.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.4N 159.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.5N 160.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 14.7N 163.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 164.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 150.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA64 PHFO 012256
TCUCP4

Hurricane Lowell Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

...LOWELL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

The satellite presentation of Lowell has improved the last several
hours. A deep ring of cold convection wraps around a small eye
feature that is becoming more evident in infrared and visible
satellite imagery. Objective intensity estimates have been steadily
increasing the last few hours. The initial intensity has been raised
to 110 kt, making Lowell a major category 3 hurricane, and is
rapidly intensifying.

A Special Advisory will be with an updated intensity forecast will
be issued shortly.


$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 149.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 149.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.7N 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.8N 153.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.0N 155.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.2N 157.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.4N 159.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.5N 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.7N 163.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.3N 164.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 150.5W. 01SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 477 NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
011800Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND 022200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 012034
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026


Satellite imagery indicates that Lowell continues to strengthen, as
evidenced by the improvement in the structure of the core. A large
central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops covers the center.
The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and PHFO range from
65-90 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates range from
69-78 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt, blending the
estimates.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or about 285/9 kt. A
mid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell will remain the primary
steering influence during the next 4 days, resulting in a generally
westward to west-northwestward motion, and confidence is high on
this general track scenario. A slight southward adjustment was made
to the NHC track forecast at days 3-5, but the new forecast is not
as far south as the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA)
and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) models. In about 4 days,
Lowell should slow down, as a mid- to upper-level trough well north
of the Hawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge. The trough
could cause Lowell to start a turn to the northwest or north in
about 5 days. For this reason, interests in the Hawaiian Islands
should continue to closely monitor Lowell's progress.

Warm water temperatures and weak vertical shear should continue
along Lowell's path for at least the next 5 days. Lowell will
likely strengthen to a major hurricane over the next 24 h. It is
quite possible that Lowell could then maintain major hurricane
strength through the next 5 days. Very little change has been made
to the previous NHC intensity forecast, which lies between the
middle and upper end of the guidance envelope. Given that Lowell
may be in the midst of rapid intensification, and that some models
like the HCCA show an even higher intensity, it is possible that
Lowell could strengthen more than forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.5N 150.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.7N 151.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.8N 153.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 14.0N 155.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.2N 157.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 14.4N 159.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 14.5N 160.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 14.7N 163.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 15.3N 164.9W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 012031
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST TUE SEP 01 2026

...LOWELL STRENGTHENING QUICKLY...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 150.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 150.3 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND LOWELL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB (28.85 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 012031
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 150.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 150.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 149.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.7N 151.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 153.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 155.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.2N 157.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.4N 159.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.5N 160.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 14.7N 163.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 164.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 150.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011623

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.09.2026

HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 128.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2026 0 18.0N 128.7W 936 98
0000UTC 02.09.2026 12 18.5N 130.5W 952 83
1200UTC 02.09.2026 24 19.1N 132.6W 965 71
0000UTC 03.09.2026 36 19.6N 134.8W 972 65
1200UTC 03.09.2026 48 19.9N 136.8W 980 57
0000UTC 04.09.2026 60 20.2N 138.5W 981 59
1200UTC 04.09.2026 72 20.5N 140.6W 983 54
0000UTC 05.09.2026 84 20.9N 142.7W 985 53
1200UTC 05.09.2026 96 21.5N 144.5W 984 53
0000UTC 06.09.2026 108 22.2N 146.1W 983 55
1200UTC 06.09.2026 120 23.3N 147.1W 989 45
0000UTC 07.09.2026 132 25.1N 147.8W 992 48
1200UTC 07.09.2026 144 27.4N 148.8W 997 41
0000UTC 08.09.2026 156 29.7N 151.1W 1002 38
1200UTC 08.09.2026 168 32.7N 153.5W 1002 45

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ANALYSED POSITION : 29.4N 92.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2026 0 29.4N 92.9W 1011 31
0000UTC 02.09.2026 12 30.0N 94.1W 1009 23
1200UTC 02.09.2026 24 31.2N 95.2W 1012 17
0000UTC 03.09.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 109.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2026 0 14.8N 109.0W 1003 37
0000UTC 02.09.2026 12 15.9N 111.0W 1000 38
1200UTC 02.09.2026 24 17.1N 112.2W 997 39
0000UTC 03.09.2026 36 18.0N 113.8W 993 42
1200UTC 03.09.2026 48 18.7N 115.3W 989 43
0000UTC 04.09.2026 60 19.1N 117.0W 986 45
1200UTC 04.09.2026 72 19.8N 118.5W 985 52
0000UTC 05.09.2026 84 21.1N 119.8W 983 52
1200UTC 05.09.2026 96 22.1N 120.3W 983 51
0000UTC 06.09.2026 108 24.3N 120.0W 984 49
1200UTC 06.09.2026 120 25.9N 120.0W 988 44
0000UTC 07.09.2026 132 27.3N 119.7W 992 44
1200UTC 07.09.2026 144 28.3N 119.2W 997 32
0000UTC 08.09.2026 156 28.4N 119.3W 1000 30
1200UTC 08.09.2026 168 28.6N 118.9W 1003 23

HURRICANE LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.0N 148.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2026 0 13.0N 148.8W 987 50
0000UTC 02.09.2026 12 13.4N 150.6W 983 56
1200UTC 02.09.2026 24 13.4N 152.9W 980 54
0000UTC 03.09.2026 36 13.5N 155.1W 975 57
1200UTC 03.09.2026 48 13.7N 157.4W 969 69
0000UTC 04.09.2026 60 14.0N 159.3W 964 76
1200UTC 04.09.2026 72 14.1N 161.0W 967 68
0000UTC 05.09.2026 84 14.1N 162.3W 969 63
1200UTC 05.09.2026 96 14.2N 163.7W 965 68
0000UTC 06.09.2026 108 14.5N 165.0W 959 80
1200UTC 06.09.2026 120 15.0N 166.2W 959 76
0000UTC 07.09.2026 132 15.5N 167.5W 954 79
1200UTC 07.09.2026 144 15.8N 168.5W 952 87
0000UTC 08.09.2026 156 16.4N 169.0W 953 76
1200UTC 08.09.2026 168 17.6N 169.4W 961 71


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011623


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 020
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 149.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 149.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.7N 150.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.8N 152.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.0N 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.3N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.5N 158.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.7N 159.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.9N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 15.6N 164.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 149.6W. 01SEP26. HURRICANE 12E (LOWELL),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 011200Z IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND
021600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 011446
TCDCP4

Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number 20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026

The satellite presentation of Lowell has improved significantly
over the past 12 to 24 hours. The cyclone consists of a large
central area of very cold cloud tops with an impressive curved band
extending out towards the southwest quadrant. The latest
subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and PHFO range from 55-65 kt,
and the latest objective intensity estimates range from 60 to 70
kt. Based on improving structure observed on satellite imagery
over the past few hours, the initial intensity is increased to 70
kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or about 285/10 kt. A
mid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell should remain the
primary steering influence during the next 4 days or so, resulting
in a generally westward to west-northwestward motion. The track
guidance is in relatively good agreement during this time period,
and generally shows Lowell continuing west-northwestward through
day 4. In about 4 days, the cyclone should slow down, and may gain
some latitude as a mid- to upper-level trough well north of the
Hawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge, possibly causing a
turn toward the northwest by day 5. The latest NHC track forecast
is similar to the previous one, and lies close to the Google
DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) for the first 2-3 days, and is north
of the GDMI and HCCA for the 3 to 5 day portion of the forecast.

Environmental conditions are ripe for Lowell to intensify rapidly
over the next day or two. Now that the core is well-formed, Lowell
should be able to take advantage of the weak vertical wind shear and
warm sea-surface temperatures. The HAFS and HWRF models show Lowell
becoming a major hurricane within the next 24 to 36 hours, and the
NHC intensity forecast follows suit. The SHIPS DTOPS has about a 75
percent chance of 45 kt strengthening over the next 36 hours, and
the NHC forecast shows 40 kt of strengthening during that time. The
new NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening
during the first 36 hours of the forecast, and the peak intensity
has been increased slightly to 110 kt. The new NHC intensity
forecast lies between the middle and upper end of the intensity
guidance suite, and is in between the intensity consensus (IVCN) and
the HCCA. Ocean waters should remain warm and vertical wind shear
is forecast to remain low through day 5, so the NHC forecast holds
Lowell at major hurricane strength through day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 13.4N 149.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.6N 150.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 13.7N 152.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 14.0N 154.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 14.3N 156.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 14.5N 158.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 14.7N 159.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 14.9N 162.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 15.6N 164.4W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 011445
TCMCP4

HURRICANE LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 149.4W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 70SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 149.4W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 149.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.6N 150.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.7N 152.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.0N 154.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.3N 156.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 158.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.7N 159.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 162.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.6N 164.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 149.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 011445
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST TUE SEP 01 2026

...LOWELL NOW A HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 149.4W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 149.4 WEST. LOWELL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO, AND LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
(150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB (29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 019
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 148.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 148.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.3N 149.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.5N 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.7N 153.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.0N 155.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.3N 157.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.6N 159.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.8N 161.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.2N 164.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 148.7W. 01SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 12E
(LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 010600Z IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z. REFER TO
HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 010832
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026

Lowell's satellite presentation has changed little during the past
several hours. A large area of deep convection continues to expand
over the low-level circulation center, with cloud-top temperatures
of -80 C or colder within the developing central dense overcast.
Although some easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect the
cyclone, the shear has decreased considerably from what was observed
over the weekend. The latest subjective Dvorak and objective
intensity estimates have changed little this evening. Therefore, the
initial intensity is held at 60 kt.

The initial motion is westward, or about 280/9 kt. A low- to
mid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell should remain the
primary steering influence during the next several days, resulting
in a generally westward to west-northwestward motion. The track
guidance has come into better agreement and generally shows Lowell
continuing west-northwestward through much of the forecast period.
By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to gradually slow and gain
some latitude as a mid- to upper-level trough well northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and
remains between the TVCN simple consensus, the multi-model consensus
(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Environmental conditions appear increasingly favorable for
significant strengthening during the next couple of days. Although
some easterly vertical wind shear persists, the shear is forecast to
decrease further while Lowell moves over warm waters. The recent
increase in convection near the center could be an indication that
the cyclone is beginning to respond to these improving conditions.
The intensity guidance continues to show significant strengthening,
with several of the models forecasting Lowell to become a major
hurricane within the next couple of days. The latest NHC intensity
forecast calls for Lowell to become a hurricane with the next 12 h
and a major hurricane by Wednesday night. Little change in intensity
is forecast thereafter as Lowell remains within a generally
favorable environment through day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward to
west-northwestward and could be in the vicinity of the Hawaiian
Islands late this week or this weekend. Interests in Hawaii should
monitor the progress of this storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 13.1N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 13.3N 149.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 13.5N 151.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 13.7N 153.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 14.0N 155.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 14.3N 157.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 14.6N 159.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 14.8N 161.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 15.2N 164.3W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 010831
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST MON AUG 31 2026

...LOWELL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 148.5W
ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 148.5 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, AND LOWELL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING LATER THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 010831
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 148.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 70SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 148.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 148.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.3N 149.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.5N 151.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.7N 153.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 155.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.3N 157.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010422

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.09.2026

HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 126.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2026 0 17.6N 126.6W 939 88
1200UTC 01.09.2026 12 18.2N 128.7W 950 80
0000UTC 02.09.2026 24 18.6N 130.8W 957 77
1200UTC 02.09.2026 36 19.1N 132.7W 965 67
0000UTC 03.09.2026 48 19.5N 134.8W 972 63
1200UTC 03.09.2026 60 19.7N 136.7W 978 60
0000UTC 04.09.2026 72 20.1N 138.7W 978 62
1200UTC 04.09.2026 84 20.4N 140.8W 982 54
0000UTC 05.09.2026 96 20.7N 142.9W 985 54
1200UTC 05.09.2026 108 21.0N 144.8W 985 51
0000UTC 06.09.2026 120 21.5N 146.1W 983 59
1200UTC 06.09.2026 132 22.1N 147.2W 990 49
0000UTC 07.09.2026 144 23.2N 148.6W 995 43
1200UTC 07.09.2026 156 24.7N 149.5W 997 46
0000UTC 08.09.2026 168 26.5N 151.3W 999 41

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 91.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2026 0 28.4N 91.6W 1012 24
1200UTC 01.09.2026 12 29.0N 93.0W 1012 23
0000UTC 02.09.2026 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 147.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2026 0 12.9N 147.1W 992 42
1200UTC 01.09.2026 12 13.2N 148.8W 989 44
0000UTC 02.09.2026 24 13.4N 150.7W 984 51
1200UTC 02.09.2026 36 13.3N 152.9W 977 55
0000UTC 03.09.2026 48 13.6N 155.0W 974 61
1200UTC 03.09.2026 60 13.9N 157.1W 971 68
0000UTC 04.09.2026 72 14.0N 159.0W 972 67
1200UTC 04.09.2026 84 13.9N 160.6W 970 68
0000UTC 05.09.2026 96 13.9N 161.7W 967 67
1200UTC 05.09.2026 108 14.0N 163.0W 967 62
0000UTC 06.09.2026 120 14.4N 164.2W 958 78
1200UTC 06.09.2026 132 15.0N 165.3W 957 78
0000UTC 07.09.2026 144 15.6N 166.2W 955 80
1200UTC 07.09.2026 156 16.3N 166.8W 953 88
0000UTC 08.09.2026 168 16.9N 167.3W 957 80

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.6N 108.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2026 0 13.6N 108.4W 1004 32
1200UTC 01.09.2026 12 14.9N 110.2W 1004 37
0000UTC 02.09.2026 24 15.6N 112.1W 1001 37
1200UTC 02.09.2026 36 16.5N 113.6W 999 42
0000UTC 03.09.2026 48 17.5N 115.0W 996 45
1200UTC 03.09.2026 60 18.5N 116.5W 992 44
0000UTC 04.09.2026 72 19.1N 118.3W 987 44
1200UTC 04.09.2026 84 19.6N 119.4W 985 47
0000UTC 05.09.2026 96 20.5N 120.6W 986 52
1200UTC 05.09.2026 108 21.7N 121.8W 988 52
0000UTC 06.09.2026 120 24.1N 122.2W 989 48
1200UTC 06.09.2026 132 25.4N 121.6W 993 46
0000UTC 07.09.2026 144 25.7N 121.3W 998 38
1200UTC 07.09.2026 156 25.8N 120.8W 1003 34
0000UTC 08.09.2026 168 26.0N 120.5W 1005 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010422


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 010400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 147.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 147.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.2N 148.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.4N 150.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.7N 152.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.9N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.2N 156.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.5N 158.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.0N 161.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.3N 163.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010400Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 147.6W.
01SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 619
NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010000Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
011000Z, 011600Z, 012200Z AND 020400Z.//
NNNN


0001004600
00001


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 010232
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026

Lowell appears to be showing signs of becoming better organized this
afternoon. A renewed burst of deep convection has developed and is
expanding over the low-level circulation center, coincident with a
gradual decrease in the easterly vertical wind shear that has been
affecting the cyclone during the past couple of days. Subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO range from 45 to 65 kt,
while objective estimates are generally between 45 and 55 kt. Given
the recent increase in convective organization and the decrease in
shear, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.

The initial motion is westward, or about 280/9 kt. A low- to
mid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell should remain the
primary steering influence during the next several days, resulting
in a generally westward to west-northwestward motion. The track
guidance has come into better agreement and generally shows Lowell
continuing west-northwestward through much of the forecast period.
By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to gradually slow and gain
some latitude as a mid- to upper-level trough well northwest of the
Hawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and
remains between the TVCN simple consensus, the multi-model consensus
(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Environmental conditions appear increasingly favorable for
significant strengthening during the next couple of days. Although
some easterly vertical wind shear persists, the shear is forecast to
decrease further while Lowell moves over warm waters. The recent
increase in convection near the center could be an indication that
the cyclone is beginning to respond to these improving conditions.
The intensity guidance continues to show significant strengthening,
with several of the models forecasting Lowell to become a major
hurricane within the next couple of days. The latest NHC intensity
forecast calls for Lowell to become a hurricane with the next 12 h
and a major hurricane by Wednesday. Little change in intensity is
forecast thereafter as Lowell remains within a generally favorable
environment through day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward to
west-northwestward and could be in the vicinity of the Hawaiian
Islands late this week or this weekend. Interests in Hawaii should
monitor the progress of this storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 13.0N 147.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 13.4N 150.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 13.7N 152.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 13.9N 154.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 14.2N 156.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.5N 158.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 15.0N 161.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 15.3N 163.7W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 010230
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 147.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 70SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 147.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 147.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.4N 150.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.7N 152.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.9N 154.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.2N 156.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 158.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 161.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.3N 163.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 147.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 010230
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST MON AUG 31 2026

...LOWELL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY
THEREAFTER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 147.4W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 147.4 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO, AND LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING LATER THIS WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 312200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 12.8N 146.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 146.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.0N 147.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.3N 149.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.5N 151.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.7N 153.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.1N 155.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.4N 157.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.9N 160.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.3N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312200Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 146.6W.
31AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668
NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311800Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010400Z, 011000Z, 011600Z AND 012200Z.//
NNNN


0001080200
00001


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 312039
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 31 2026

Moderate easterly shear is still having some affect on Lowell.
Although a 31/1047Z AMSR2 pass and a 31/1459Z GPMI pass suggest that
the internal structure of the convection is becoming better
organized around the center, the shear needs to abate just a bit
more, in order for the low- and mid-level centers to better align
vertically, before the cyclone can strengthen significantly. The
latest subjective Dvorak estimates from PHFO and JTWC range from
45-65 kt, and objective estimates have been ranging from 45-50 kt.
The initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on a blend of the
intensity estimates.

The initial motion is just south of due west, or 265 degrees at 11
kt. A mid-level ridge north of Lowell will be the primary steering
mechanism for the next few days. Lowell should move generally
westward to west-northwestward during that time. By day 4 and 5,
Lowell could gain some latitude as it feels some pull from a mid- to
upper-level trough located well to its north. The HFIP Corrected
Consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble (GDMI) are the fastest
and farthest south models. The latest NHC forecast track is nearly
identical to the previous forecast for the first 72 hours, and then
is slightly to the left of the previous track at days 4-5. The
latest NHC forecast lies in between the TVCN simple consensus, which
is a bit slower and to the right, and the HCCA, which is faster and
to the left.

SHIPS and UW-CIMSS vertical wind shear analyses indicate that the
easterly wind shear is starting to decrease, and is likely around
10 kt now. Satellite imagery suggests that it may take a little
more time for the core of Lowell to be ready to begin intensifying
more quickly. The HAFS models, as well as the HWRF and HMON all
forecast the cyclone to become a major hurricane over the next 2
days, so no significant change has been made to the NHC intensity
forecast. The shear is expected to be weak throughout the next 5
days and water temperatures will remain warm along Lowell's path,
so the forecast calls for Lowell to maintain its strength through
day 5 as a major hurricane. The intensity forecast remains between
the middle and higher end of the intensity guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward and could be in the
vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands late this week or this weekend.
Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of this storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 12.9N 146.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 13.0N 147.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 13.3N 149.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 13.5N 151.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 13.7N 153.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 14.1N 155.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 14.4N 157.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 14.9N 160.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 15.3N 162.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 312038
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST MON AUG 31 2026

...LOWELL FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 146.5W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 146.5 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A MOTION BETWEEN WEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND
LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING AROUND MID-WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 312037
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 146.5W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 70SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 146.5W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 146.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.0N 147.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.3N 149.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.5N 151.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.7N 153.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.1N 155.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.4N 157.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 14.9N 160.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.3N 162.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 146.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 311621

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 31.08.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.3N 91.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 0 28.3N 91.0W 1013 20
0000UTC 01.09.2026 12 27.9N 92.2W 1012 19
1200UTC 01.09.2026 24 29.2N 93.5W 1012 20
0000UTC 02.09.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 124.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 0 17.1N 124.9W 954 77
0000UTC 01.09.2026 12 17.5N 126.7W 955 76
1200UTC 01.09.2026 24 18.0N 128.8W 957 73
0000UTC 02.09.2026 36 18.5N 130.9W 964 67
1200UTC 02.09.2026 48 18.8N 132.9W 971 59
0000UTC 03.09.2026 60 19.3N 135.0W 977 56
1200UTC 03.09.2026 72 19.8N 137.2W 982 56
0000UTC 04.09.2026 84 20.0N 139.2W 982 56
1200UTC 04.09.2026 96 20.1N 141.4W 984 54
0000UTC 05.09.2026 108 20.2N 143.5W 983 49
1200UTC 05.09.2026 120 20.6N 145.0W 982 54
0000UTC 06.09.2026 132 21.3N 145.9W 983 55
1200UTC 06.09.2026 144 21.9N 146.3W 989 48
0000UTC 07.09.2026 156 22.9N 146.8W 994 43
1200UTC 07.09.2026 168 23.8N 148.4W 999 35

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 144.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.08.2026 0 12.8N 144.8W 997 33
0000UTC 01.09.2026 12 13.0N 146.8W 995 39
1200UTC 01.09.2026 24 13.2N 148.6W 990 45
0000UTC 02.09.2026 36 13.3N 150.6W 982 52
1200UTC 02.09.2026 48 13.4N 152.7W 980 51
0000UTC 03.09.2026 60 13.6N 154.9W 975 62
1200UTC 03.09.2026 72 13.8N 157.0W 979 62
0000UTC 04.09.2026 84 13.9N 158.6W 979 62
1200UTC 04.09.2026 96 13.7N 160.0W 972 69
0000UTC 05.09.2026 108 13.5N 161.0W 973 67
1200UTC 05.09.2026 120 13.7N 162.0W 970 61
0000UTC 06.09.2026 132 14.4N 162.8W 964 66
1200UTC 06.09.2026 144 15.3N 163.7W 965 64
0000UTC 07.09.2026 156 16.0N 164.5W 962 74
1200UTC 07.09.2026 168 16.5N 165.0W 964 73

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 12.8N 108.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2026 12 13.4N 109.4W 1004 32
1200UTC 01.09.2026 24 14.5N 111.1W 1004 37
0000UTC 02.09.2026 36 15.4N 113.1W 1001 41
1200UTC 02.09.2026 48 16.6N 114.8W 1000 42
0000UTC 03.09.2026 60 17.6N 116.5W 997 44
1200UTC 03.09.2026 72 17.9N 117.6W 993 40
0000UTC 04.09.2026 84 18.5N 119.2W 988 45
1200UTC 04.09.2026 96 19.2N 120.2W 986 48
0000UTC 05.09.2026 108 20.1N 120.8W 985 55
1200UTC 05.09.2026 120 21.6N 120.8W 986 54
0000UTC 06.09.2026 132 23.2N 121.3W 987 52
1200UTC 06.09.2026 144 23.5N 121.5W 993 42
0000UTC 07.09.2026 156 24.1N 121.5W 998 35
1200UTC 07.09.2026 168 24.4N 122.4W 1002 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 311621


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 311600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 12.8N 145.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 145.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 12.9N 147.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.1N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.4N 150.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.6N 152.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.0N 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.4N 156.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.9N 159.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.4N 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311600Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 145.8W.
31AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 704
NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311200Z IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312200Z, 010400Z, 011000Z AND 011600Z.//
NNNN


0000991400
00001


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 311458
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Aug 31 2026

Lowell consists of a large central dense overcast with very cold
cloud tops. A 31/1047 UTC AMSR2 pass indicates the low-level center
is rapidly becoming better organized underneath the convective
canopy. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from PHFO and JTWC
range from 45-55 kt, and objective estimates are a bit lower than
the subjective estimates. The initial intensity is raised to 55 kt
based on the improved structure noted on the AMSR2 pass.

The initial motion is just south of due west, or 260 degrees at 12
kt. A mid-level ridge north of Lowell will be the primary steering
mechanism for the next few days. Lowell should move generally
westward to west-northwestward during that time. Thereafter, model
spread increases as Lowell slows. A west-northwestward motion is
forecast after day 4 as Lowell feels some pull from a mid- to
upper-level trough located well to its north. The HCCA and Google
DeepMind ensemble (GDMI) are the fastest and farthest south models.
The latest NHC forecast track is slightly to the left of the
previous track, but not quite as far south as the GDMI.

The moderate easterly shear that has been affecting Lowell appears
to be diminishing. Lowell seems poised to take advantage of warm
waters to rapidly intensify, as shown by the HAFS-A and HAF-B
models, which forecast Lowell becoming a major hurricane within the
next 36 h. SHIPS is forecasting weak vertical wind shear magnitudes
over the next 5 days. Given that the cyclone has developed a closed
ring on 37 GHz microwave imagery, it is probably just a matter of
time before we see Lowell strengthen significantly. The new NHC
intensity forecast explicitly forecasts rapid intensification over
the next 36 h, and then holds Lowell at category 3 strength through
the day 5 period, since SSTs are forecast to still be between 28-29C
and the shear is still forecast to be light at day 5. The new
intensity forecast is between the middle and higher end of the
intensity guidance envelope. This forecast is slightly above the
intensity consensus, but not nearly as strong as the HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward and could be in the
vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands late this week. Interests in Hawaii
should monitor the progress of this storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 12.8N 145.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 12.9N 147.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 13.1N 149.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 13.4N 150.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 13.6N 152.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 14.0N 154.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 14.4N 156.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 14.9N 159.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 15.4N 161.7W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 311454
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST MON AUG 31 2026

...LOWELL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 145.7W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 145.7 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER,
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS, AND LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY LOWELL ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEGINNING AROUND MID-WEEK. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 311454
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 145.7W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 70SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 145.7W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 145.2W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.9N 147.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.1N 149.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.4N 150.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.6N 152.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.0N 154.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.4N 156.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 14.9N 159.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 15.4N 161.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 145.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 311000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 143.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 143.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.0N 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.2N 147.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.4N 149.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.7N 151.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.0N 153.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.4N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.1N 158.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.6N 160.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311000Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 144.3W.
31AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 769
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310600Z IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311600Z, 312200Z, 010400Z AND 011000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 310835
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Aug 30 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the convective coverage associated
with Lowell has changed little over the past several hours.
Persistent easterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the
bulk of the deep convection over and west of the low-level
circulation center. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO
and JTWC are 55 kt and 45 kt, respectively, while the latest
objective intensity estimates range from about 40 to 50 kt. A blend
of these estimates supports increasing the initial intensity to 50
kt.

The initial motion is 270/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge north of
the cyclone should remain the primary steering influence during the
next couple of days, resulting in a continued westward motion. The
track guidance remains in relatively good agreement through about 60
h. Thereafter, considerable cross-track spread persists among the
guidance as Lowell gradually slows and begins to turn
west-northwestward. Some of this spread may be due to the potential
influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's steering
flow, as well as differences in how the models depict a mid- to
upper-level trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands and the
resulting weakness in the subtropical ridge. The HCCA and Google
DeepMind ensemble mean remain along the southern side of the
guidance envelope through day 5, while several other models favor a
more northwestward track along the northern side of the guidance
envelope. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of
the previous advisory and remains near the HCCA, Google DeepMind
ensemble mean, and simple consensus (TVCN).

Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect Lowell and
should temper the rate of strengthening in the short term. The shear
is forecast to decrease during the next 12 to 24 h while the cyclone
remains over warm waters, which should allow Lowell to become better
organized and continue strengthening. A faster rate of
intensification is forecast between 24 and 72 h as environmental
conditions become more favorable. Thereafter, the intensity is
forecast to level off around 96 h. The NHC intensity forecast is
essentially an update of the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward and could be in the
vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands late this week. Interests in Hawaii
should monitor the progress of this storm.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 13.0N 144.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 13.0N 145.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 13.2N 147.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 13.4N 149.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 13.7N 151.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 14.0N 153.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 14.4N 155.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 15.1N 158.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 15.6N 160.8W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 310834
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2026

...LOWELL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY ON A WESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 144.2W
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 144.2 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER, A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
LOWELL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 310833
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 144.2W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 144.2W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 143.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.0N 145.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.2N 147.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.4N 149.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.7N 151.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.0N 153.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.4N 155.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 15.1N 158.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 15.6N 160.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 144.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 310420

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 31.08.2026

HURRICANE KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 123.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2026 0 17.0N 123.5W 982 53
1200UTC 31.08.2026 12 17.4N 124.9W 979 50
0000UTC 01.09.2026 24 17.7N 126.8W 976 53
1200UTC 01.09.2026 36 18.1N 129.1W 974 55
0000UTC 02.09.2026 48 18.5N 131.2W 974 58
1200UTC 02.09.2026 60 18.9N 133.1W 978 53
0000UTC 03.09.2026 72 19.6N 135.1W 982 54
1200UTC 03.09.2026 84 20.1N 137.3W 986 56
0000UTC 04.09.2026 96 20.5N 139.6W 985 58
1200UTC 04.09.2026 108 20.6N 142.3W 986 49
0000UTC 05.09.2026 120 20.5N 145.0W 986 52
1200UTC 05.09.2026 132 20.8N 147.7W 987 51
0000UTC 06.09.2026 144 21.2N 150.0W 988 56
1200UTC 06.09.2026 156 22.0N 152.0W 991 50
0000UTC 07.09.2026 168 23.1N 153.9W 995 44

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 142.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2026 0 13.2N 142.9W 999 32
1200UTC 31.08.2026 12 12.9N 144.8W 999 32
0000UTC 01.09.2026 24 13.1N 146.7W 997 35
1200UTC 01.09.2026 36 13.3N 148.8W 993 39
0000UTC 02.09.2026 48 13.6N 150.7W 990 44
1200UTC 02.09.2026 60 13.7N 153.0W 987 48
0000UTC 03.09.2026 72 13.8N 155.2W 982 51
1200UTC 03.09.2026 84 14.0N 157.2W 984 53
0000UTC 04.09.2026 96 14.3N 158.9W 984 51
1200UTC 04.09.2026 108 14.1N 160.1W 986 50
0000UTC 05.09.2026 120 13.7N 161.0W 984 54
1200UTC 05.09.2026 132 13.4N 161.6W 979 55
0000UTC 06.09.2026 144 13.9N 162.0W 971 65
1200UTC 06.09.2026 156 14.7N 162.3W 970 63
0000UTC 07.09.2026 168 15.7N 162.3W 967 66

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.6N 109.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.09.2026 24 13.2N 110.1W 1004 38
1200UTC 01.09.2026 36 14.5N 112.3W 1004 35
0000UTC 02.09.2026 48 15.3N 114.2W 1002 34
1200UTC 02.09.2026 60 15.9N 115.6W 1002 44
0000UTC 03.09.2026 72 16.8N 117.3W 999 41
1200UTC 03.09.2026 84 17.4N 119.2W 995 41
0000UTC 04.09.2026 96 17.9N 120.6W 991 47
1200UTC 04.09.2026 108 18.4N 121.8W 990 48
0000UTC 05.09.2026 120 20.0N 122.8W 989 50
1200UTC 05.09.2026 132 20.7N 123.5W 986 53
0000UTC 06.09.2026 144 22.4N 122.8W 984 53
1200UTC 06.09.2026 156 24.3N 122.1W 984 53
0000UTC 07.09.2026 168 25.7N 121.6W 989 49

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 37.8N 65.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2026 72 37.1N 64.7W 1015 23
1200UTC 03.09.2026 84 36.5N 63.1W 1014 22
0000UTC 04.09.2026 96 35.9N 62.0W 1015 21
1200UTC 04.09.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 9.9N 174.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2026 84 9.9N 174.5W 1006 24
0000UTC 04.09.2026 96 10.6N 174.2W 1005 25
1200UTC 04.09.2026 108 11.1N 174.9W 1005 23
0000UTC 05.09.2026 120 10.9N 175.5W 1004 23
1200UTC 05.09.2026 132 10.6N 175.7W 1003 24
0000UTC 06.09.2026 144 10.4N 175.8W 1001 26
1200UTC 06.09.2026 156 9.9N 175.1W 1000 32
0000UTC 07.09.2026 168 10.2N 173.6W 999 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 21.4N 60.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2026 156 21.4N 60.2W 1011 29
0000UTC 07.09.2026 168 22.8N 60.2W 1010 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 310420


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 310400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 014 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 13.2N 142.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 142.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.1N 144.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.2N 146.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.4N 148.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.7N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.9N 152.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.2N 154.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.0N 157.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 15.7N 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310400Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 143.5W.
31AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 310000Z IS 999 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311000Z, 311600Z, 312200Z AND 010400Z.//
NNNN


0000904800
00001


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 310237
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Aug 30 2026

Lowell's convective organization has changed little during the past
several hours. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to
displace the bulk of the deep convection over and west of the
low-level circulation center. With little change in the satellite
presentation, a blend of an earlier scatterometer pass, the latest
objective intensity estimates, and the subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates from HFO and JTWC supports holding the initial intensity
at 45 kt.

The initial motion is 270/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge north of
the cyclone should remain the primary steering influence during the
next couple of days, resulting in a continued westward motion. The
track guidance remains in relatively good agreement through about 60
h. Thereafter, considerable cross-track spread persists among the
guidance as Lowell gradually slows and begins to turn
west-northwestward. Some of this spread may be due to the potential
influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's steering
flow, as well as differences in how the models depict a mid- to
upper-level trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands and the
resulting weakness in the subtropical ridge. The HCCA and Google
DeepMind ensemble mean remain along the southern side of the
guidance envelope through day 5, while several other models favor a
more northwestward track along the northern side of the guidance
envelope. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged
from the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA, Google DeepMind
ensemble mean (GDMI), and simple consensus (TVCN).

Moderate easterly vertical wind shear of around 20 kt continues to
affect Lowell and should temper the rate of strengthening in the
short term. The shear is forecast to decrease during the next 12 to
24 h while the cyclone remains over warm waters, which should allow
Lowell to become better organized and begin strengthening. A faster
rate of intensification is forecast between 24 and 72 h as
environmental conditions become more favorable. Thereafter, the
intensity is forecast to level off around 96 h. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is essentially an update of the previous
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 13.2N 143.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 13.1N 144.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 13.2N 146.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 13.4N 148.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 13.7N 150.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 13.9N 152.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 14.2N 154.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 15.0N 157.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 15.7N 159.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 310235
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SUN AUG 30 2026

...LOWELL HOLDING STEADY ON A WESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 143.3W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 143.3 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
LOWELL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 310235
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 143.3W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 60SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 143.3W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 142.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.1N 144.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.2N 146.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.4N 148.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 150.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.9N 152.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.2N 154.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 157.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 15.7N 159.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 143.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 302200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 141.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 141.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.3N 143.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.3N 145.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.5N 147.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.7N 149.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.9N 150.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.1N 152.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.8N 155.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 15.6N 158.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
302200Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 142.0W.
30AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 881
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301800Z IS 999 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
310400Z, 311000Z, 311600Z AND 312200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 302040
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Aug 30 2026

Lowell's outflow to the east is starting to improve, a sign that the
persistent easterly shear might be decreasing. However, this has not
yet resulted in a noticeable increase in the convective
organization, as the center is still located just under the eastern
side of a triangular-shaped convective mass. A just-received
ASCAT-C overpass shows wind vectors of 42 kt in the northwest
quadrant. Based on this and the various satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/11 kt. As before, a low- to mid-level
ridge north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering
influence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued
generally westward motion. After that, there remains significant
cross-track spread in the guidance. Some of this may be due to the
possible influence of Hurricane Karina on Lowell's steering. The two
cyclones are likely to stay far enough apart that direct interaction
is unlikely. However, the Canadian model forecast still suggests the
possibility of Karina affecting Lowell's motion. Another cause for
the spread may be the models' differences in the forecast of a mid-
to upper-level trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. The GFS
forecasts the trough develop farther south and create a weakness in
the subtropical ridge with Lowell moving farther north, while the
ECMWF keeps the trough farther to the north with less weakening of
the ridge and Lowell staying farther south. Currently, it is
difficult to tell which of these scenarios will become reality. The
new forecast track lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and
is similar to the previous track.

The intensity guidance is unchanged since the last advisory, and
indeed it hasn't changed much for the past two days. Lowell should
start intensifying in the next 12-24 h, with a faster rate of
strengthening between 24-72 h as conditions become more favorable.
The guidance suggests the intensity should level off around 96-120
h, and the forecast follows this. The new intensity forecast is an
update of the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 13.3N 141.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 13.3N 143.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 13.3N 145.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 13.5N 147.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.7N 149.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 13.9N 150.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 14.1N 152.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 14.8N 155.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 15.6N 158.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 302039
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2026

...LOWELL MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 141.8W
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 141.8 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
LOWELL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 302039
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 141.8W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 141.8W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 141.3W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.3N 143.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.3N 145.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.5N 147.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.7N 149.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.9N 150.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.1N 152.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 14.8N 155.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 15.6N 158.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 141.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 301600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 140.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 140.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.3N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.3N 144.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.3N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.5N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.7N 149.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.9N 151.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.5N 154.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.4N 157.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301600Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 140.7W.
30AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 944
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 301200Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
302200Z, 310400Z, 311000Z AND 311600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 301445
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Aug 30 2026

Lowell is still showing signs of easterly shear, with the low-level
center just under the eastern edge of the convective overcast.
Satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range and have
changed little since the last advisory. Thus, the initial intensity
remains 45 kt.

The initial motion is now 270/11 kt. As before, a low- to mid-level
ridge north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering
influence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued
generally westward motion. After that, there is considerable
cross-track spread in the guidance, likely due in part to the
potential influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's
steering flow. The HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), the UKMET, and
the Google DeepMind ensemble mean continue to show a more westward
motion days 3-4, while the GFS, ECMWF, and the regional hurricane
models show a west-northwestward motion. The Canadian model is still
calling for an interaction with Karina that would cause Lowell to
become nearly stationary, but that solution looks unlikely at the
moment. The new forecast track lies a little to the north of the
HCCA forecast and a little to the north of the previous forecast.

For the past two days, the forecast has been for the shear to let up
and Lowell to start strengthening, but this has not yet happened.
The guidance, though, continues to forecast this, and while the
cirrus outflow is restricted to the east there is more of it than
there was yesterday. The new intensity forecast will follow the
guidance trend and show the system strengthening through 96 h, with
the forecast in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. The
intensity near the end of the forecast period will depend on how
close Lowell and the larger Karina are, as the closer they are the
weaker Lowell is likely to be. For now, the forecast shows Lowell's
intensity leveling off by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 13.3N 140.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 13.3N 142.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 13.3N 144.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 13.3N 146.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 13.5N 148.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 13.7N 149.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 13.9N 151.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 14.5N 154.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 15.4N 157.7W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 301444
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 140.4W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 140.4W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 139.8W

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.3N 142.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.3N 144.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.3N 146.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.5N 148.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 149.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.9N 151.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 154.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 15.4N 157.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 140.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 301444
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SUN AUG 30 2026

...LOWELL CONTINUING WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 140.4W
ABOUT 1070 MI...1720 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 140.4 WEST. LOWELL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
LOWELL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 300950
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

...LOWELL HOLDING STEADY ON A WESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 139.1W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 139.1 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion will continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 500 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO
header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the
web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 301000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 011 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 138.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 138.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.0N 140.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.0N 143.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.1N 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.3N 147.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.4N 149.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.5N 150.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.0N 154.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.9N 157.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301000Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 139.4W.
30AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1026
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301600Z, 302200Z, 310400Z AND 311000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


0000870700
00001


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 300836
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

Lowell remains a sheared tropical cyclone this evening. Moderate
easterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the bulk of the
deep convection over and west of the low-level circulation center.
With little change in the satellite presentation, a blend of a
scatterometer pass this evening, the latest objective intensity
estimates, and the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB
supports holding the initial intensity at 45 kt for this advisory.

Lowell is moving westward, or 270/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge
positioned north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering
influence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued
generally westward motion. The track guidance remains in relatively
good agreement during this period. Thereafter, considerable
cross-track spread persists, likely due in part to the potential
influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's steering
flow. The latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean have changed
little over the past several cycles and remain near the southern
edge of the guidance envelope, while the GFS, regional hurricane
models, and simple consensus (TVCN) continue to favor a gradual
west-northwestward to northwestward turn later in the forecast
period. Given the considerable spread among these solutions, the
latest NHC track forecast continues to reflect a blend of the
previous forecast, HCCA, and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect Lowell and
should temper the rate of strengthening in the short term. The shear
is forecast to decrease during the next day or so, which should
allow the cyclone to become better organized. Gradual strengthening
is forecast through about 36 h, followed by a faster rate of
intensification through 72 h as environmental conditions become more
favorable. Although some mid-level dry air could limit the rate of
intensification, all of the intensity guidance supports continued
strengthening, with Lowell forecast to become a hurricane in about
48 h, with some additional strengthening thereafter. The intensity
forecast becomes increasingly uncertain later in the period due to
Lowell's potential interaction with Karina. A slower and more
northwestward track, as shown by the GFS and some of the regional
hurricane models, would bring Lowell closer to Karina and could
expose the cyclone to stronger vertical wind shear associated with
Karina's outflow, resulting in a weaker cyclone. Conversely, a
farther-south track would likely keep the two cyclones sufficiently
separated and allow Lowell to maintain its strength or continue
strengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the
middle of the guidance envelope and is close to the consensus
(IVCN).

Lowell is forecast to reach the central Pacific basin in the next
few hours, and the next advisory will be issued by the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center at 1500 UTC/500 AM HST. Users will not need
to change where they obtain information on Lowell, which will
continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 13.2N 139.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 13.0N 140.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 13.0N 143.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 13.1N 145.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 13.3N 147.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 13.4N 149.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 13.5N 150.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 14.0N 154.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 14.9N 157.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 300835
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

...LOWELL HOLDING STEADY ON A WESTWARD TRACK...
...NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 139.1W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 139.1 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion will continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 500 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO
header WTPA34 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the
web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 300833
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 139.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 70SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 139.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 138.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.0N 140.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.0N 143.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.1N 145.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.3N 147.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.4N 149.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.5N 150.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 154.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 14.9N 157.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 139.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOTCMCP4...WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 300400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 13.2N 137.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 137.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 13.1N 139.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.0N 142.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.0N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.1N 145.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.2N 147.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.4N 149.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.6N 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.3N 154.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300400Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 138.4W.
30AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1079
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301000Z, 301600Z, 302200Z AND 310400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


0000841600
00001


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 300232
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
500 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

Lowell's convective organization has changed little during the past
several hours. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to
displace the bulk of the deep convection over and west of the
low-level circulation center. Based on a blend of an earlier
scatterometer pass, the latest objective intensity estimates, and
the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB, the initial
intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory.

Lowell is moving westward, or 270/8 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge
positioned north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering
influence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued
westward motion. The track guidance is in generally good agreement
during this period. Thereafter, considerable cross-track spread
develops in the guidance, likely due in part to the potential
influence of Tropical Storm Karina on Lowell's steering flow. The
latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean have shifted slightly
southward and maintain a generally westward motion, while the GFS,
regional hurricane models, and simple consensus (TVCN) support a
gradual west-northwestward to northwestward turn later in the
forecast period. Given the considerable spread among these
solutions, the latest NHC track forecast reflects a blend of the
previous forecast, HCCA, and Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and has
been nudged slightly southward from the previous advisory.

The moderate easterly vertical wind shear affecting Lowell is
forecast to persist in the short term, which should temper the rate
of strengthening. However, the shear is expected to gradually
decrease during the next day or two while Lowell remains over warm
waters, which should allow the cyclone to become better organized
and gradually strengthen. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more favorable thereafter, with very low vertical wind shear
expected by early next week, and a faster rate of strengthening is
anticipated. The intensity forecast becomes increasingly uncertain
later in the period due to Lowell's potential interaction with
Karina. The current forecast track keeps the cyclones sufficiently
separated for Lowell to continue strengthening, while a slower and
more northwestward solution could expose Lowell to stronger shear
associated with outflow from Karina and result in a weaker cyclone.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from
the previous advisory and remains near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 13.2N 138.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 13.1N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/0000Z 13.0N 142.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 13.1N 145.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 13.2N 147.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 13.4N 149.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 13.6N 152.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 14.3N 154.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 300230
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
500 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

...LOWELL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 138.1W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 138.1 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion will continue during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 300230
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 138.1W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 138.1W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 137.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.1N 139.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.0N 142.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.1N 145.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.2N 147.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.4N 149.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 13.6N 152.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 14.3N 154.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 138.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 292200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 009 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 13.1N 136.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 136.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.2N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.1N 140.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.1N 142.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.2N 144.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.3N 146.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.4N 147.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.8N 150.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 14.4N 152.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292200Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 137.1W.
29AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1146
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291800Z IS 1003 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 300400Z, 301000Z, 301600Z AND 302200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 292033
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

Lowell remains a sheared cyclone at this time, with the low-level
center near the eastern edge of the main convective mass. Since the
organization and the various satellite intensity estimates have
changed little from the previous advisory, the initial intensity
remains 40 kt.

For the past 12 h or so Lowell has been moving west-northwestward
or 285/11 kt. A westward motion should resume soon and continue for
the next 2-3 days as a low- to mid-level ridge to the north is the
main steering influence. After that time, the track guidance splits
into three camps, likely due to the potential effects of Tropical
Storm Karina on Lowell's steering flow. One camp, which includes
the Google Deepmind Ensemble Mean, the HFIP Corrected Consensus,
the UKMET, and the ECMWF - which has flip-flopped into this camp -
calls for Lowell to continue generally westward. A second camp,
which includes the GFS and the various regional hurricane models,
forecast a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest. The third
camp, which includes the Canadian, Canadian Ensemble Mean, the GFS
Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM, have Lowell slowing its westward
motion, with the NAVGEM turning it back to the east. Needless to
say that with this kind of spread the forecast is low confidence.
Overall, the guidance envelope has trended a little more to the west
and a little faster. That being said, the new forecast track is a
little north of the previous track due to the current
west-northwestward jog.

The ongoing shear has been slower to diminish than forecast
yesterday. However, the dynamical models are in good agreement
that it should diminish during the next 12-24 h, with Lowell
strengthening as it becomes vertically aligned. After 24 h, the
intensity forecast shows a faster rate of development as conditions
become more favorable. By the end of the forecast period, the
intensity forecast becomes more uncertain due to Lowell's potential
interaction with Karina. The forecast intensity, which has minor
tweaks from the previous forecast, calls for Lowell and Karina to
stay far enough apart for Lowell to maintain its strength or keep
strengthening. However, a slower forward motion could expose Lowell
to stronger shear associated with outflow from Karina and cause a
weaker storm. The new intensity forecast again lies in the middle
of a guidance envelope with significant spread.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 13.2N 137.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 13.2N 138.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 13.1N 140.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 13.1N 142.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 13.2N 144.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 13.3N 146.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 13.4N 147.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 13.8N 150.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 14.4N 152.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 292032
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 AM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

...LOWELL JOGS A LITTLE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 137.1W
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 137.1 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward
motion should resume during the next few hours and continue for the
next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the weekend, and Lowell
could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 292032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 137.1W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 137.1W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 136.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.2N 138.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.1N 140.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.1N 142.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.2N 144.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.3N 146.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 13.4N 147.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 150.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 14.4N 152.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 137.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 12.7N 135.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 135.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.8N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.8N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 12.8N 141.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 12.9N 143.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.0N 145.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.1N 146.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.4N 149.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.8N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 135.9W.
29AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1220
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 291200Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292200Z, 300400Z, 301000Z AND 301600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 291437
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
500 AM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

...LOWELL MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 135.7W
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 135.7 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion,
along with a gradual increase in forward speed, is expected during
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the weekend, and Lowell
could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 291437
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 135.7W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 135.7W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 135.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.8N 137.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.8N 139.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.8N 141.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.9N 143.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.0N 145.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.1N 146.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 13.4N 149.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 13.8N 151.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 135.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 12.6N 134.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 134.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.8N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 12.9N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.0N 141.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.0N 143.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.1N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.3N 146.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.6N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 13.9N 151.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 135.1W.
29AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1260
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND 301000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


0000808300
00001


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 290851
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 28 2026

There has been little change in Lowell's organization or intensity
during the past several hours. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear
continues to displace the bulk of the deep convection over and west
of the low-level circulation center. While an earlier scatterometer
pass showed slightly lower winds, a blend of the latest objective
intensity estimates and the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate
from TAFB supports holding the initial intensity at 40 kt for this
advisory.

The cyclone continues to move slowly westward, with an initial
motion of about 280/7 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to
strengthen north of the cyclone during the next couple of days,
which should cause Lowell to continue westward with a gradual
increase in forward speed. This general westward motion is expected
to continue through the weekend and into early next week. Track
forecast uncertainty increases considerably thereafter due in part
to the potential influence of Tropical Storm Karina to the northeast
on Lowell's steering flow. There remains considerable spread in the
guidance, particularly in forward speed, with the multi-model
consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean generally faster
than the GFS and ECMWF solutions. In addition to the along-track
spread, the cross-track spread also increases considerably by day 5.
Given these differences, the latest NHC track forecast has been
nudged slightly southward and reflects a blend of the previous
forecast and the latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.

The easterly vertical wind shear currently affecting Lowell is
forecast to persist into the weekend, then steadily decrease by
Sunday night into Monday, which should allow the cyclone to become
better organized and gradually strengthen. However, the current
sheared structure and nearby mid- to upper-level dry air should
temper the rate of intensification in the short term. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more favorable thereafter, and a
faster rate of strengthening is possible by early next week. The
intensity forecast becomes more uncertain later in the period due to
Lowell's potential interaction with Karina. A faster westward track
would likely keep the cyclones sufficiently separated and allow
Lowell to continue strengthening, while a slower solution could
expose Lowell to stronger shear associated with outflow from Karina.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the
previous advisory and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 12.6N 134.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 12.8N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 13.0N 141.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 13.0N 143.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 31/1800Z 13.1N 145.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 13.3N 146.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 13.6N 149.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 13.9N 151.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 290851
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 28 2026

...LOWELL HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 134.8W
ABOUT 1430 MI...2305 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 134.8 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion,
along with a gradual increase in forward speed, is expected during
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the weekend, and Lowell
could become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 290850
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 134.8W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 134.8W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 134.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.8N 136.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.0N 141.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.0N 143.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.1N 145.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 13.3N 146.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 13.6N 149.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 13.9N 151.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 134.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 290400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 133.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 133.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.6N 135.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.7N 136.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.8N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.0N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 13.2N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.4N 144.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.7N 146.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.2N 150.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290400Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 134.3W.
29AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1302
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290000Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 290241
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
500 PM HST Fri Aug 28 2026

Lowell remains a sheared tropical cyclone this afternoon. Moderate
easterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the bulk of the
convection over and west of the low-level circulation center. There
has been little evidence of strengthening during the past several
hours, and a blend of the latest objective intensity estimates and
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB support holding the
initial intensity at 40 kt for this advisory.

The cyclone continues to move slowly westward, with an initial
motion of about 275/5 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to
strengthen north of the cyclone during the next couple of days,
which should cause the cyclone to continue westward with a gradual
increase in forward speed. This general westward motion is expected
to continue through the weekend and into early next week. Track
forecast uncertainty increases considerably thereafter due in part
to the potential influence on the steering flow from TS Karina to
its northeast. There remains considerable spread in the guidance,
particularly in forward speed, with the multi-model consensus (HCCA)
and Google DeepMind ensemble mean generally faster than the GFS and
ECMWF solutions. In addition to the along-track spread, the
cross-track spread also increases considerably by day 5. Given these
differences, the latest NHC track forecast reflects a blend of the
previous forecast, Google DeepMind ensemble mean, and HCCA.

The easterly vertical wind shear currently affecting Lowell is
forecast to hold into the weekend, then steadily decrease by the
latter half of the weekend, which should allow the cyclone to become
better organized and gradually strengthen. However, the current
sheared structure and nearby mid- to upper-level dry air should
temper the rate of intensification in the short term. Environmental
conditions are forecast to become more favorable thereafter, and a
faster rate of strengthening is possible beginning by early next
week. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain later in the
period due to Lowell's potential interaction with Karina. A faster
westward track would likely keep the cyclones sufficiently separated
and allow Lowell to continue strengthening, while a slower solution
could expose Lowell to stronger shear associated with outflow from
Karina. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and continues to show Lowell becoming a hurricane in about
60 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 12.5N 134.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 12.6N 135.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 12.7N 136.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 31/1200Z 13.2N 142.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 13.4N 144.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 13.7N 146.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 14.2N 150.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 290240
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
500 PM HST Fri Aug 28 2026

...LOWELL HOLDING STEADY ON A WESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 134.2W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 134.2 West. Lowell is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion,
along with a gradual increase in forward speed, is expected during
the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected to begin on Saturday, and Lowell
could become a hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 290239
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 134.2W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 134.2W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 133.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.6N 135.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.7N 136.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.2N 142.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.4N 144.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 146.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 14.2N 150.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 134.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 12.4N 133.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 133.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 12.6N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.8N 135.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.0N 136.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.1N 138.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.4N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.6N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.1N 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.7N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 133.4W.
28AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1340
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND 292200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 282035
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 28 2026

Lowell continues to be affected by easterly vertical shear. The
low-level center is currently exposed to the east of the main
convective mass, and satellite imagery is hinting that the
mid-level center is west or southwest of the low-level center. A
recent ASCAT overpass showed no tropical-storm force winds in the
eastern semicircle, but it did not sample the winds under the
deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates range from 30-45
kt, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

Lowell is starting its forecast westward turn. The initial motion
is 305/4 kt, and the cyclone should start a westward motion within
the next 12 h. A general westward motion should continue for the
next 2-3 days as a low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Lowell
becomes the primary steering influence. The forecast uncertainty
becomes quite large by 120 h due to the possible effect of the
larger Tropical Storm Storm Karina on Lowell's steering currents.
The track guidance has a significant spread in Lowell's forward
speed between the faster HCCA/UKMET/Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean
and the slower ECMWF/Canadian/GFS. The new track forecast leans
towards the faster models, and it is a little south of the previous
forecast.

The current shear is expected to decrease in 18-24 hours. After
that time, conditions appear generally favorable for strengthening,
with the caveat that water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level
dry air not far north of the cyclone's forecast track. The
intensity forecast shows only modest strengthening during the next
24 h due to the shear and Lowell's current poor level of
organization. After that, a faster rate of development is likely,
particularly after 60 h. The intensity near the end of the forecast
period is dependent on how close Lowell is to Karina. The current
faster track forecast keeps the cyclones farther apart and thus
Lowell is forecast to continue strengthening. However, if the
slower track guidance is correct, Lowell could wind up in stronger
shear and with a lower intensity due to proximity to Karina.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 12.5N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 12.6N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 12.8N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 13.1N 138.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 31/0600Z 13.4N 140.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/1800Z 13.6N 142.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 14.1N 145.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 14.7N 149.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 282034
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 28 2026

...LOWELL STARTING ITS WESTWARD TURN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 133.4W
ABOUT 1520 MI...2450 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 133.4 West. Lowell is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
west is expected by tonight, and a westward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through tonight. However,
strengthening is expected to begin on Saturday, and Lowell could
become a hurricane by Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the west of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 282034
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 133.4W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 133.4W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 133.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.6N 134.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 30SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.8N 135.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.1N 138.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.4N 140.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 13.6N 142.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 14.1N 145.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 14.7N 149.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 133.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 133.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 133.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.1N 132.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 12.3N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.5N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 12.7N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 12.9N 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.1N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.5N 143.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.9N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 132.9W. 28AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E
(LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1364 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z,
290400Z AND 291000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 281440
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
500 AM HST Fri Aug 28 2026

Northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect
Lowell, with the low-level center currently exposed to the northeast
of the deep convection. However, a recent burst of convection has
developed closer to the center in the last hour or so. Objective
satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 33 to 40 kt,
and the latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB is
T2.5/35 kt with a Current Intensity (CI) of 3.0/45 kt. Based on a
blend of these estimates and recent satellite trends, the initial
intensity is held at 40 kt.

The initial motion remains slowly east-northeastward. This slow
motion should continue through today, followed by a gradual turn
toward the west-northwest and west tonight into tomorrow as a
mid-level ridge begins to build to the north of the cyclone. As this
ridge strengthens, the system should gradually accelerate westward.
Beyond 48 to 72 hours, considerable along- and cross-track spread
remains in the model guidance. This uncertainty is tied to the
complex evolution of multiple systems and disturbances in the
central and eastern Pacific, and their subsequent impacts on the
steering flow. The latest NHC track forecast remains on the faster
side of the guidance envelope, generally blending the faster HCCA
and slightly slower TVCN consensus aids. The Google DeepMind model
is the fastest solution provided by the guidance, however as noted
in previous discussions, this model has exhibited a fast bias in the
Pacific basin this season.

Although Lowell is dealing with some moderate vertical wind shear,
environmental conditions are expected to remain or become even more
favorable for intensification over the next several days. The
cyclone is forecast to move over warm sea surface temperatures
within an environment of light to moderate shear and abundant
mid-level moisture. Particularly beyond 60 hours, the intensity
guidance indicates steady strengthening, and the system is forecast
to reach hurricane intensity by this weekend. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, lying near
the high end of the guidance suite in the short term and closer to
the middle of the envelope beyond 72 hours. However, it should be
noted that some of the regional hurricane models, and HCCA suggest a
faster rate of intensification is possible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 12.5N 132.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 12.6N 133.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 12.8N 134.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 13.0N 135.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 13.2N 137.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 31/0000Z 13.5N 139.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 13.7N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 14.2N 144.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 14.6N 147.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 281439
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
500 AM HST Fri Aug 28 2026

...LOWELL FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 132.8W
ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 132.8 West. Lowell is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected by tomorrow, with that motion
continuing into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is likely during the next several days, and Lowell is
forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 281439
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 132.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.6N 133.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.8N 134.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 13.0N 135.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.2N 137.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.5N 139.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.7N 140.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 14.2N 144.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 14.6N 147.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 132.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 281000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 11.6N 133.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 133.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.1N 132.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 12.3N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.5N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 12.7N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 12.9N 138.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 13.1N 139.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 13.5N 143.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.9N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281000Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 132.9W. 28AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E
(LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1364 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280600Z IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z,
290400Z AND 291000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


0000209700
00001


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 280835
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

Lowell continues to produce a persistent area of deep convection
on the southwest side of its circulation, and banding features are
gradually becoming better organized west of the center. The
latest satellite intensity estimates generally range from 35 to 45
kt, and based on those values, the initial wind speed is nudged up
to 40 kt for this advisory. The storm appears to be experiencing
some northeasterly vertical wind shear based on its convective
pattern.

The initial motion estimate remains east-northeastward, or 65
degrees at 5 kt, and that general slow motion could continue through
the day. However, a turn to the west or west-northwest with an
increase in forward speed is expected on Saturday as a ridge
strengthens to the north of the system. Although the models
generally agree on this overall pattern evolution, there remains
considerable spread in the location of the turn and forward speed of
the storm after it turns westward. The NHC track forecast leans
toward the faster side of the guidance envelope, but is not as fast
as the Google DeepMind and HCCA solutions, which have had a slight
fast bias on storms in the eastern and central Pacific so far this
season.

Lowell is expected to be in generally favorable environmental
conditions for the next several days, with warm sea-surface
temperatures, light to moderate easterly wind shear and relatively
moist air. However, strengthening could be slow in the short term
given its asymmetric structure. Most of the more reliable models
show at least steady strengthening throughout the forecast period,
and it seems likely that Lowell will reach hurricane strength over
the weekend with additional intensification continuing into early
next week. The NHC intensity forecast is similiar to the previous
one and lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term and
closer to the middle of the envelope at the latter forecast times.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 11.7N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 12.1N 132.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 12.3N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 12.5N 134.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 12.7N 136.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 12.9N 138.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 13.1N 139.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 13.5N 143.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 13.9N 146.3W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 280834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

...LOWELL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...
...FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND CONTINUE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 133.0W
ABOUT 1565 MI...2520 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 133.0 West. Lowell is
moving toward the east-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected by Saturday, with that motion
continuing into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is likely during the next several days,
and Lowell is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 280834
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.0W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 133.0W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 133.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.1N 132.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.3N 133.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.5N 134.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.7N 136.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.9N 138.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.1N 139.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 13.5N 143.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 13.9N 146.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 133.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 280400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 11.3N 133.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 133.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 11.8N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 12.3N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.5N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 12.7N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 12.9N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 13.2N 139.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.5N 142.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.9N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280400Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 133.4W. 28AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E
(LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1340 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280000Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z,
282200Z AND 290400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12E
(LOWELL) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 280248
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
500 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

Satellite imagery shows a large area of deep convection that has
been persisting with Lowell, with a ball of deep convection near and
over the center, and a curved band noted as well. A 27/2204Z AMSR-2
pass also shows the same curved banding pattern. Earlier
scatterometer data showed that the center was slightly elongated,
with tropical-storm-force winds confined to the southern semicircle
and a radius of maximum wind (RMW) of about 50 n mi. The latest
TAFB Dvorak classification is T2.5/35 kt and objective estimates
have been ranging from 30-42 kt. The initial intensity is held at
35 kt for this advisory, but given the impressive banding and
maintenance of deep convection, this estimate could be slightly
conservative.

The initial motion estimate remains slowly east-northeastward, or 70
degrees at 4 kt. A slow counterclockwise turn toward the north and
then the west is expected over the next 36 h as ridging builds in
to the northeast and north. A generally westward to
west-northwestward motion should then continue for the rest of the
forecast period. There remains a ton of spread in the forward speed
from 72 to 120 h, which could be related to Karina's location and
size, relative to Lowell's. The NHC track is a little faster toward
the west than the previous forecast beyond 36 hours, but not nearly
as fast as the HCCA and GDMI.

Lowell will be over relatively favorable environmental conditions
for the next 5 days, with warm sea-surface temperatures, light to
moderate easterly wind shear and relatively moist air. Despite
these favorable conditions, it is a bit perplexing that the models
are so slow to strengthen Lowell to a hurricane. Perhaps the slow
strengthening at first could be due to the large RMW observed on
the previous ASCAT pass along with the moderate easterly shear. If
the cyclone is able to gain enough latitude and get north of 13N,
it should find itself in a more favorable upper-level environment,
which could allow for more significant strengthening in a few days.
Little change has been made to the previous NHC intensity forecast
in the first 4 days, but a higher intensity is shown at day 5. The
NHC intensity forecast is higher than the intensity consensus, but
not as high as the HMON and HCCA, which bring Lowell to major
hurricane strength by day 5. The confidence in the intensity
forecast is below average, and it is possible that Lowell could
strengthen more than forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 11.4N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 11.8N 133.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 12.3N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 12.5N 134.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 12.7N 135.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 12.9N 137.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 13.2N 139.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 13.5N 142.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 13.9N 146.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 280247
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
500 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

...LOWELL DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 133.5W
ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1545 MI...2485 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 133.5 West. Lowell is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the north is expected by Friday, with a westward motion
expected by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is likely during the next several days, and Lowell is
forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 280247
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 133.5W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 133.5W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 133.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 11.8N 133.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.3N 133.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 12.5N 134.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.7N 135.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.9N 137.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.2N 139.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 13.5N 142.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 146.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 133.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260252ZAUG26
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 11.2N 134.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 134.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 11.6N 133.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 12.1N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 12.6N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 12.9N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 13.0N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 13.2N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.4N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 13.8N 144.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 11.3N 133.8W.
27AUG26. TROPICAL STORM 12E (LOWELL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1321
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 01C (LALA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN22 PHNC 270300).//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 272046
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance well to the
west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula and well
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands has developed well-organized
convective bands. Recently received ASCAT data showed a closed
circulation which, while elongated NE-SW, was producing winds near
35 kt about 50 n mi southeast of the center. Based on this,
advisories are initiated on Tropical Storm Lowell.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 065/4 kt. During the
next day or two, Lowell is expected to turn westward as a low- to
mid-level ridge builds to the north. A generally westward motion
should continue for the rest of the forecast period. The guidance
has some spread in the forward speed by 120 h, which seems to be
due to possible effects on the steering flow by the larger Tropical
Storm Karina to the east. The forecast track is near the center of
the guidance envelope and splits the speed difference between the
models.

Lowell will be over warm sea surface temperatures during the next
five days and in an environment of light to moderate easterly
shear. This should allow steady strengthening, and the initial
intensity forecast is near the center of the intensity guidance.
Since the environment is favorable and some of the guidance is
stronger than the current forecast, it is possible that Lowell will
strengthen more and faster than currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 11.3N 133.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 11.6N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 12.1N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 12.9N 134.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 13.0N 136.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 13.2N 138.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 13.4N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 272045
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122026
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

...TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORMS IN THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 133.8W
ABOUT 1765 MI...2840 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 133.8 West. Lowell is
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual
turn toward the north is expected by Friday, with a westward motion
expected by Saturday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is
likely during the next several days, and Lowell could become a
hurricane by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 272045
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122026
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 133.8W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 133.8W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 134.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 11.6N 133.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.1N 133.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.6N 133.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 12.9N 134.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.0N 136.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.2N 138.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 13.4N 141.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 133.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=