Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FIVE-26 in United States from 31 Aug 2026 15:00 UTC to 21:00

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FIVE-26

in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

31/08 20:56 WTNT45KNHC312054

31/08 20:55 WTNT35KNHC312053

31/08 20:54 WTNT25KNHC312052

31/08 17:53 WTNT35KNHC311751

31/08 15:25 WTNT35KNHC311523

31/08 14:58 WTNT35KNHC311455

31/08 14:58 WTNT45KNHC311456

31/08 14:57 WTNT25KNHC311455

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 312054
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data through early this
afternoon showed the low-level circulation of this system gradually
becoming better defined, and it was sufficient to designate it as
Tropical Depression Five for the 18 UTC intermediate advisory. This
is consistent with the improved radar and satellite presentation of
the system, with a prominent curved band now evident to the south of
the center. The aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of
38 kt earlier today, and TAFB provided a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak estimate
at 18 UTC. These data support a 30-kt intensity for this advisory.
Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to
investigate the system tonight.

The center of the depression lies to the north and east of prior
estimates based on the aircraft data and recent surface
observations. A low-level ridge over the southeastern United States
is steering the system toward the west-northwest (300/5 kt), and
this general motion should continue through the next couple of days.
The system is expected to move onshore along the northwestern Gulf
Coast within the warning area on Tuesday, with the updated 24-h
forecast point just offshore. There were no significant changes to
the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast was
adjusted slightly north of the previous prediction mainly due to the
repositioning of the center.

The tropical cyclone is fairly compact and has a small radius of
maximum wind. Although it only has about a day over the very warm
Gulf waters, strengthening is expected within a generally low shear
environment. Since the small size of the system makes it more
susceptible to quicker intensity changes, the NHC intensity forecast
has been raised and now lies above almost all of the intensity
guidance, including HCCA and IVCN. The legacy hurricane regional
models (HWRF/HMON) show even more strengthening than is forecast
here. While this does not appear to be the most likely scenario,
interests in the warning area are reminded to closely monitor the
latest forecast updates.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts on
Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Port Bolivar,
Texas, to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, Louisiana.

2. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and
Wednesday as the system tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely
across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may
also be possible.

3. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, Texas, to
the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana. Peak values of up to
4 feet above ground level are possible within the watch area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 28.2N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 28.8N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 29.6N 93.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 30.6N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1800Z 31.6N 96.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 312053
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 91.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to the
Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line in Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. Gulf Coast from
High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours or so.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).
A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system
is predicted to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning
area on Tuesday and move inland over southeast Texas on Tuesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and the depression is likely to become a
tropical storm this evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Five can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area by Tuesday morning, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...2-4 ft
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 9 inches for parts of
the Upper Texas Coast inland through east-central Texas, with
potential for 2 to 3 inches in far Southwest Louisiana. This
rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, especially in
low-lying and urban areas. River flooding may also be possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with TD
Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ero.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 312052
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052026
2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 91.5W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 91.5W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 91.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 28.8N 92.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.6N 93.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 30.6N 95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.6N 96.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 91.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 311751
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF AMERICA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 90.8W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the depression was centered near latitude
28.0 North, longitude 90.8 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two. On the forecast track,
the center of the system is predicted to reach the northwestern Gulf
Coast within the warning area on Tuesday.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
1012 mb (29.89 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Five can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area on Tuesday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island, TX to Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 9 inches for parts of
the Upper Texas Coast inland through east-central Texas, with 2 to 3
inches for Southwest Louisiana. This rainfall could produce flash
flooding, especially in low-lying and urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Depression Five, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ero.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 311523
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 91.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northwestern Gulf
Coast from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish
Line in Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 27.8 North, longitude 91.0 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is predicted reach the
northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area on Tuesday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island, TX to Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: PTC Five is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals of 9 inches for parts of the Upper Texas
Coast inland through east-central Texas, with 2 to 3 inches for
Southwest Louisiana. This rainfall could produce flash flooding,
especially in low-lying and urban areas.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with PTC
Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ero.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 311455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 91.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northwestern Gulf
Coast from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish
Line in Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 27.8 North, longitude 91.0 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On the
forecast track, the center of the system is predicted reach the
northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area on Tuesday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

High Island, TX to Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: PTC Five is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals of 9 inches for parts of the Upper Texas
Coast inland through east-central Texas, with 2 to 3 inches for
Southwest Louisiana. This rainfall could produce flash flooding,
especially in low-lying and urban areas.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 311456
TCDAT5

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The disturbance (AL97) that the NHC has been tracking over the
northern Gulf of America continues to produce a small area of
showers and thunderstorms with modest signs of organization.
Overnight scatterometer data indicated the circulation lacked
definition on the western side, and recent surface observations and
data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters suggest the center is
still elongated and ill defined. However, given the expectation that
the system will become a tropical cyclone, and the risk of tropical
storm conditions for portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, we
are initiating advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The
initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 30 kt based on the
overnight scatterometer data.

The initial motion is uncertain given the system is still in its
formative stage, but our best estimate is west-northwestward (285/4
kt). The track models agree that the system should continue
west-northwestward during the next day or so and approach the Upper
Texas and southwestern Louisiana coast within the warning area on
Tuesday. The official NHC track forecast lies very near the HFIP
corrected consensus (HCCA), near the center of the guidance
envelope. A 48-h post-tropical forecast point is shown for
continuity, but the system will likely be dissipated by that time.

The small system is located over SSTs greater than 30 deg C, and the
deep-layer shear appears fairly weak as diagnosed from the SHIPS
guidance. Some strengthening is expected before the system reaches
the coast on Tuesday, as long as it is able to develop a more
cohesive tropical cyclone structure. Since the center is predicted
to move onshore between 24-36 h, additional strengthening could
occur between those forecast points that cannot be reflected in the
official forecast. Given the anticipated small size of the system,
it could be prone to quicker intensity changes, so additional
strengthening beyond what is shown cannot be ruled out. The NHC
intensity forecast lies at the top of the latest guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to bring tropical
storm conditions to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern
Louisiana coasts on Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line,
Louisiana.

2. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through
east-central Texas into far southwestern Louisiana Tuesday and
Wednesday as the system tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely
across this region, especially in urban areas.

3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the Upper
Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 27.8N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 01/0000Z 28.3N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 01/1200Z 29.1N 93.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 29.9N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/1200Z 31.1N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 311455
TCMAT5

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052026
1500 UTC MON AUG 31 2026

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 91.0W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 91.0W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 90.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 28.3N 91.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 29.1N 93.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.9N 94.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.1N 95.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 91.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

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