Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for MARIE-26
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 25.5N 127.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 127.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.8N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.7N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.2N 131.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 127.5W.
08SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 679 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS
1000 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 13 FEET.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 081439
TCDEP3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Marie's satellite presentation has degraded since the previous
advisory. Infrared satellite imagery depicts very weak remnant
convection in the southeast quadrant, while visible imagery shows
that Marie's low-level center is exposed. The latest subjective
Dvorak estimate from TAFB classified Marie's intensity as 30 kt,
while objective analysis from UW-CIMSS generally ranged from 25-36
kt. Given the most recent satellite trends, Marie's initial
intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The storm is now classified as
a post-tropical cyclone due to a lack of deep convection.

The initial motion was estimated at 300/8 kt. Marie is expected to
turn more northwestward as it finds itself wedged between a cutoff
low descending from the northeast Pacific and a high pressure system
centered over the southwestern US. Little was changed to the most
recent NHC track forecast, which reflects only a slight leftward
shift to bring the official track slightly closer to HCCA.

Marie is forecast to weaken and dissipate in the next couple of days
as the system moves over progressively cooler SSTs and into a drier
airmass. The latest intensity forecast moved up dissipation time
slightly due to Marie's current rate of weakening following the
latest model trends.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system. For additional information on the remnant low please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 25.8N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 09/0000Z 26.8N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 09/1200Z 28.7N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 10/0000Z 31.2N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 081437
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026

...MARIE BECOMES A POST TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 127.4W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie
was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 127.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h) and is forecast to turn to the northwest over the next
day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is expected to continue, and Marie is forecast to
dissipate in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 081437
TCMEP3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 127.4W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 127.4W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 127.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.8N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.7N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.2N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 127.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 25.2N 126.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 126.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.3N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 27.9N 128.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 29.8N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 32.1N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 126.7W.
08SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 080600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 080849
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026

The satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade as the
cyclone continues to weaken. What is the left of the deep convection
is very minimal and limited to the southeastern quadrant of the
storm. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix came in at T2.5/35 kt, and the
objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of
30-44 kt. The most recent scatterometer pass showed that there are
still some 35-kt winds and given that this pass only partially
captured the storm, there could still be some stronger winds.
Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this
advisory.

The storm continues its slow west-northwestward trek with an initial
motion estimate of around 300/7 kt. Marie is expected to turn more
northwestward and move within the flow between a ridge extending
westward from the southwestern U.S. and a cutoff low to the west of
the tropical cyclone. The current NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous forecast track, and is close to the corrected model
consensus.

Marie is expected to move over cooler waters for the next day or so,
and based on the decreasing convection, it seems likely that the
storm will become post-tropical within the next 24 h. Unless deep
convection is able to return to the cyclone soon, Marie's
post-tropical transition could occur even earlier than the official
forecast. The current NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the
previous intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 25.5N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 26.3N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 27.9N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/1800Z 29.8N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0600Z 32.1N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 080848
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 08 2026

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS DUE TO MARIE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 126.6W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 126.6 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The cyclone
is expected to keep this heading for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is expected for the next couple of days, and Marie
is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today or on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 080848
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 126.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 126.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 126.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.3N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 27.9N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.8N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.1N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 080234
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Marie continues its gradual weakening trend, although the cyclone
still has a substantial low-level circulation. Deep convection is
minimal and confined to the southeastern quadrant of the system.
Based on a continued slow spin down from the earlier scatterometer
overpass, the winds are reduced slightly to 45 kt for this advisory,
although this may be generous. Another scatterometer overpass
should sample the system in a few hours.

The storm continues its slow west-northwestward trek with an initial
motion estimate of around 290/7 kt. There is not much change to the
track forecast. Marie is expected to turn northwestward soon and
move within the flow between a ridge extending westward from the
southwestern U.S. and a cutoff low to the west of the tropical
cyclone. The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC
track, and is close to the corrected model consensus.

Marie is over SSTs near 24 deg C and it should encounter even cooler
waters during the next day or so. Given the decreasing convection,
it now appears that the cyclone will become post-tropical in 24
hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Unless deep
convection redevelops in the system soon, however, Marie's
post-tropical transition could occur even earlier than indicated
here.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 25.1N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 25.8N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 27.2N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 09/1200Z 29.1N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 10/0000Z 31.3N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/1200Z 33.4N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 080233
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 125.9W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 125.9 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to
the northwest is forecast to occur over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected for the next couple
of days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low
by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches)

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 080233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 125.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 125.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 125.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.8N 126.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 127.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.1N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.3N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.4N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 125.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 072033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Visible satellite imagery depicts Marie as a sheared system with a
low-level center that has recently become exposed to the northwest
of the convective area. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity
estimate from TAFB was 45 kt, while objective estimates from CIMSS
range from 38-52 kt. A recent ASCAT pass from METOP-B revealed max
winds near Marie's center at around 45 kt. Given the typical low
bias in ASCAT due to its resolution, the initial intensity was set
at 50 kt.

Marie's initial motion estimate was 285/7 kt. The storm has moved
more westward since the last advisory, but is still forecast to turn
to the northwest as a cutoff low from the northeast Pacific dives
down and interacts with Marie. The official NHC track forecast
shifted slightly leftward due to the more westward initial motion,
and is reflected mostly by a blend of the previous official forecast
and HCCA.

The timing of Marie transitioning into a post-tropical storm was
moved up to 36 h as the cyclone moves into an increasingly hostile
environment, and IR satellite imagery continues to depict degrading
convection. The latest NHC intensity forecast continues to hasten
Marie's weakening within the first 24 h, before weakening becomes
more gradual upon the storm's post-tropical transition. This
forecast generally falls in line with the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 24.8N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 25.2N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 26.3N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 28.0N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 09/1800Z 30.0N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0600Z 32.2N 131.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z 34.2N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 072032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 125.3W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 125.3 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the
northwest is forecast to occur over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady weakening is expected for the next couple of days, and Marie
is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 072032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 125.3W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 300SE 240SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 125.3W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 124.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.2N 126.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.3N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.0N 128.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.0N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.2N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 34.2N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 125.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 071433
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Latest satellite imagery shows little change in Marie's structure
over the last several hours. Convection can be seen flaring up
across the western and southern semicircles, with drier air evident
within the storm's northern half. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB was 55 kt, while objective estimates
from CIMSS range from 45-53 kt. Given the lack of significant
change in Marie's satellite presentation, the initial intensity
estimate was held steady at 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate was 300/6 kt. Marie is forecast to
continue to move west-northwestward over the next 24 hours before a
cutoff low from the northeast Pacific is expected to shift the
storm's motion more northwestward. Guidance has generally favored a
slight rightward shift in Marie's track beyond day 2 due to this
anticipated interaction with the cutoff low, so the latest NHC track
forecast reflects this, following a blend of HCCA, GDMI, and the
previous track forecast.

With Marie moving over cooler SSTs and increasing vertical wind
shear, steady weakening is expected over the next couple of days.
Marie is forecast to become post-tropical on Wednesday, before
dissipating shortly thereafter. The latest NHC intensity forecast
reflects a sharper weakening trend over the next 24 hours, before
becoming more gradual Tuesday into Wednesday. This generally
follows the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 24.7N 124.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 25.1N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 25.9N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 27.4N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 29.3N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 31.6N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z 33.5N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 071432
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026

...MARIE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 124.4W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 705 MI...1140 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 124.4 West. Marie is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to
the northwest is forecast to occur over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is expected for the next couple of days,
and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 071432
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 124.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 165SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 124.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 124.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.1N 125.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.9N 126.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.4N 127.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.3N 128.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.6N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 124.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 24.2N 123.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 123.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.8N 124.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 25.4N 125.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 26.5N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 28.2N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 30.4N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 32.4N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 36.0N 134.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 123.8W. 07SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 13E
(MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 070600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z,
080400Z AND 081000Z.//
NNNN


0001067200
00001


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 070849
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Marie continues show signs of gradual weakening via satellite
imagery. Based on the infrared satellite imagery, the convection
continues to wane and water vapor shows that the dry air continues
to intrude into the center of the storm. A partial ASCAT pass from
METOP-C showed that the winds on the western side of the storm are
limited to about 100 nm and some of the strongest wind speeds were
around 45 kt. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix came in at T3.5/55 kt,
while the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the range of
39-57 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt
for this advisory.

The storm is moving slowly northwestward. A general northwestward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the
next few days as Marie moves into a weakness in the subtropical
ridge toward a mid- to upper-level low. Only minor adjustments have
been made to the current NHC track forecast compared to the
previous forecast and aligns with the HCCA and GDMI models.

Steady weakening is expected to continue as Marie moves over
progressively cooler waters and into an even drier air mass over the
next few days. In addition, southwesterly vertical wind shear is
anticipated to notably increase beginning Tuesday. The combination
of these factors should lead to cyclone degenerating into a remnant
low, which is still predicted to occur by 60 hours. However, it is
possible that this could occur sooner as the GFS simulated satellite
imagery has Marie becoming post-tropical at an earlier time. The
current NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is
in line with most of the model guidance.

While Marie is well away from land, large swells from the
storm have been affecting portions of the coast of the Baja
California Peninsula and southern California. These conditions
will likely continue to cause dangerous beach conditions over the
next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 24.4N 123.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 24.8N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 25.4N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 26.5N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 28.2N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 30.4N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0600Z 32.4N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0600Z 36.0N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 070848
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 07 2026

...MARIE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 123.7W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 123.7 West. Marie is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slight turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur soon. Marie is then
expected to resume a northwestward heading at a faster forward speed
by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected to continue for the
next several days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 070847
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 123.7W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 210SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 123.7W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 123.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.8N 124.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.4N 125.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 126.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.2N 127.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.4N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.4N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 36.0N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 070243
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Marie continues to gradually lose strength due to cool waters and
intrusions of dry air. The system still has a ragged eye feature,
but it has been losing definition over the past several hours. In
addition, deep convection around the center is decreasing in
intensity and coverage. The satellite intensity estimates have been
dropping and currently range from about 45 to 65 kt. Based on a
blend of that data and Marie's degraded appearance, the initial wind
speed is lowered to 60 kt, making Marie a tropical storm.

The storm is moving slowly northwestward. A general northwestward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the
next few days as Marie moves into a weakness in the subtropical
ridge toward a mid- to upper-level low. Little change was made to
the previous track forecast, and this prediction lies on the
northern side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with HCCA
and GDMI.

Additional steady weakening is expected as Marie moves over
progressively cooler waters and into an even drier air mass over
the next few days. In addition, southwesterly vertical wind shear
is anticipated to notably increase beginning Tuesday. The
combination of these factors should lead to Marie degenerating into
a remnant low, which is now predicted to occur by 60 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is similiar to the previous one and generally in
line with the bulk of the model guidance.

Even though Marie is well away from land, large swells from the
storm have been affecting portions of the coast of the Baja
California Peninsula and southern California. These conditions
will likely continue to cause dangerous beach conditions over the
next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 24.2N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 24.6N 124.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 25.1N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 26.0N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 27.4N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 29.4N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0000Z 31.6N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 35.3N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 070242
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 123.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 123.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 124.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.1N 125.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.0N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.4N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.4N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 31.6N 129.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 35.3N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 123.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 070243
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

...MARIE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 123.2W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 123.2 West. Marie is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slight turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast later tonight. Marie is then
expected to resume a northwestward heading at a faster forward speed
by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected to continue for the
next several days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California
for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 062036
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to gradually lose
convective organization. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from
TAFB is 65 kt, and objective intensity estimates have fallen to the
55-62 range. A 1734 UTC partial ASCAT-B overpass shows some 50-kt
vectors in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is lowered
to a possibly generous 65 kt for this advisory.

Marie is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion
estimate of 315/6 kt. A bend more to the west-northwest is expected
tonight as the mid- to upper-level trough north of Marie currently
causing the northwestward motion moves eastward on Monday and
loosens its grip on Marie. Then, another mid- to upper-level low
will strengthen over the Pacific to the northwest of Marie, causing
a turn back toward the northwest, or possibly north-northwest on
Tuesday. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one
and closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google
DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI). Based on the spread in the guidance,
confidence in the track forecast is near average.

Marie is traveling over 25 C sea-surface temperatures and through a
dry airmass. The cyclone will continue moving over progressively
cooler water and into a progressively drier airmass over the next
couple of days. Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast.
Although vertical wind shear is weak right now, southwesterly shear
is forecast to increase in 36-48 h as Marie approaches the
aforementioned mid- to upper-level low to its northwest. Little to
no change has been made to the previous NHC intensity forecast.
This forecast lies near the higher end of the guidance suite. Marie
is now forecast to lose it's convection and become a post-tropical
remnant low by day 3 (Wednesday). After the system becomes
post-tropical, global models show it weakening and dissipating in 4
to 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 24.0N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 24.4N 123.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 25.0N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 25.6N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 26.7N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 28.6N 128.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 30.7N 129.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1800Z 34.6N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 062034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

...MARIE TO CONTINUE PRODUCING DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 122.9W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 122.9 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast tonight. Marie is then expected to resume a
northwestward heading at a faster forward speed on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected to continue for the
next several days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and
Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 062034
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 122.9W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 140SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 122.9W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.4N 123.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 124.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.6N 126.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.6N 128.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 30.7N 129.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 34.6N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 122.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 061452
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Marie has become less organized since the previous advisory and no
longer has an eye. In fact, the northwest quadrant is completely
void of deep convection. The latest subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates range from 59-77 kt. The initial
intensity is lowered to 70 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310 degrees at 8
kt. Marie is currently feeling some pull by a mid- to upper-level
trough currently over the U.S. west coast. As that trough moves
eastward on Monday and loosens its grip on Marie, the cyclone should
turn back toward the west-northwest for a day or so. Then, another
mid- to upper-level low will strengthen over the Pacific to the
northwest of Marie, causing a turn back toward the northwest, or
possibly north-northwest on Tuesday. The NHC track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and closely follows the HFIP Corrected
Consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI). Based on
the spread in the guidance, confidence in the track forecast is near
average.

Marie has already crossed the 26C isotherm, and currently resides
within a dry, low-shear environment. Marie will move into steadily
decreasing water temperatures and even drier air over the next few
days. Around hour 48, southwesterly vertical wind shear will
increase significantly as Marie approaches the aforementioned mid-
to upper-level low to its northwest. A slightly lower intensity is
shown in the 12-36 hour time period, mainly due to the weaker
initial intensity along with expected steady weakening over the next
couple of days, although the NHC intensity forecast is still at the
high end of model suite during that time. Marie could hang on as a
35-40 kt tropical storm in the 48 to 72 h period as the upper-level
low may briefly provide some favorable dynamics before the shear
becomes too strong. The simulated satellite imagery from the GFS
and ECMWF models suggest that Marie should lose its convection and
become a post-tropical remnant low just beyond the hour 72 point, so
NHC will continue to show post-tropical after that time. After the
system becomes post-tropical, global models show it weakening and
dissipating in 4 to 5 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 23.5N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 24.1N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 24.7N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 25.3N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 26.3N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 27.7N 127.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 29.7N 128.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 33.6N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 061450
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

...MARIE TO CONTINUE PRODUCING DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 122.5W
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 122.5 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast tonight. Marie is then expected to resume a
northwestward heading at a faster forward speed by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady weakening is expected to continue for the
next several days. Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and
Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 061450
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 122.5W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 140SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 240SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 122.5W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 122.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.1N 123.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N 124.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.3N 125.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.3N 127.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.7N 127.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 29.7N 128.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 33.6N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 122.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 060847
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

...MARIE FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 121.9W
ABOUT 765 MI...1225 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 121.9 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-
northwest is forecast tonight or on Monday. Marie is then expected
to resume a northwestward heading at a faster forward speed by
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is expected to begin later today and
continue for the next several days. Marie is forecast to become a
post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and
Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 060847
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Convection associated with Marie, while showing well organized
banding, has diminished some in intensity since the last advisory.
However, this has not yet translated into a notable weakening in the
various satellite intensity estimates. Thus, the initial intensity
remains a possibly generous 80 kt.

The initial motion is 315/7 kt. Marie is currently being steered by
a mid- to upper-level ridge to the northeast and heading for a
break in the ridge caused by a large trough over the U. S. West
Coast. This trough is forecast to move northeastward during the
next 24 h, allowing some ridging to develop north of Marie and turn
the cyclone west-northwestward. By 48 h, a new trough developing to
the northwest of Marie should turn the cyclone back to a northwest
motion, with the low-level center continuing this general motion
until the system dissipates. The new forecast track is in good
agreement with the HCCA Corrected Consensus, the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean, and the Florida State Superensemble.

Marie is starting to move into sea surface temperatures below 26C,
and the the temperatures get progressively colder along the
forecast track. This, combined with some dry air entrainment,
should start a steady weakening later today. After 48 h,
increasing shear should cause the cyclone to become decoupled
vertically, which should lead to the convection dissipating and the
cyclone becoming post-tropical between 72-96 h. The global models
forecast the low-level circulation to dissipate completely by 120 h,
and the intensity forecast follows this.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 23.1N 121.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 23.8N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 24.5N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 25.1N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 25.8N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 27.0N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 28.7N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 32.7N 130.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 060846
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 121.9W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 140SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 121.9W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 121.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.5N 123.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.8N 126.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 27.0N 127.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 28.7N 128.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 32.7N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 060233
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026

The eye of Marie has become increasingly ragged and misshapen over
the past few hours, while cloud tops in its center have begun to
cool. A recent GPM GMI microwave pass from earlier this evening
depicted a vertically aligned cyclone, but the eyewall remained
poorly defined along the western and southwestern sides. Objective
and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 77-94 kt.
However, given the degradation in structure, the initial intensity
is set at 80 kt for this advisory.

Marie is moving northwestward around 6 kt, steered by a strong
mid-level ridge anchored over the central United States. This
general motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. As Marie
weakens and becomes more shallow, a turn back toward the
west-northwest is forecast as the cyclone becomes increasingly
steered by the low-level flow. By midweek, a closed low moving
southward along the U.S. West Coast is expected to induce an
acceleration toward the northwestward, followed by a turn toward the
north.

Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become less
favorable over the next couple days as Marie moves over cooler sea
surface temperatures, resulting in slow weakening into early next
week. More rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter as increasing
wind shear decouples the cyclone and displaces any remaining
convection well to the north of its center. The latest NHC forecast
calls for Marie to become a post-tropical remnant low by 96 h,
followed by dissipation by 120 h. The NHC track and intensity
forecasts are very close to the HCCA and Google DeepMind consensus
aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 22.6N 121.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 24.0N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 24.6N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 25.2N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 26.1N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 27.5N 127.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 31.4N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 060232
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026

...MARIE FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 121.3W
ABOUT 725 MI...1170 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 121.3 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast early next week. Marie is then expected to resume a
northwestward heading at a faster forward speed by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is expected for the next several days, and
Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and
Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 060231
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 121.3W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 140SW 160NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 270SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 121.3W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 121.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.0N 122.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.6N 124.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.1N 126.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 27.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 10SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 31.4N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 121.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 052040
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Marie continues to exhibit a large ragged eye, around 60 n mi in
diameter. Satellite estimates of the hurricane's intensity are very
similar to what they were 6 hours ago, and therefore the initial
intensity remains 80 kt for this advisory. The heading of
the hurricane has been similarly steady, albeit at a slightly
slower forward speed, with a motion estimate of 305/6 kt.

Marie is moving along the western periphery of a ridge centered over
the southern United States and will likely continue on a generally
northwestward heading for most of the weekend. A short-term bend
toward the west-northwest is still expected early next week as the
cyclone weakens but it will ultimately accelerate northwestward as a
mid- to upper-level trough digs quickly southward to the west of
Marie by late Tuesday.

A drier environment and cooler SSTs are still expected to cause
Marie to slowly weaken during the next couple of days. The rate of
weakening could increase after that as the environment gets more
hostile and the aforementioned trough causes an increase in
southerly wind shear across the cyclone. Marie is still expected to
become a post-tropical remnant low near the 96 h mark, and could
dissipate in about 5 days, though the forecast conservatively shows
a point at that time for now. The NHC track and intensity forecasts
are very close to the HCCA and GDM consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 22.1N 120.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.7N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 23.6N 122.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 24.3N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 24.9N 124.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 25.5N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 26.7N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 30.3N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 34.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 052040
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026

...MARIE HOLDING STEADY BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATER THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 120.9W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 120.9 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A similar motion is
expected for the remainder of today. A slight decrease in forward
speed with a turn toward the west-northwest is possible on
Sunday. Marie is then expected to resume a northwestward heading at
a faster forward speed early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and
Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 052040
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
2100 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT.......170NE 160SE 140SW 180NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 300SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 120.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.7N 121.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.6N 122.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.3N 123.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.9N 124.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.5N 126.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.7N 127.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 30.3N 128.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 34.5N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 120.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 051442
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026

...MARIE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 120.4W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 120.4 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A similar motion is
expected today. A slight decrease in forward speed with a brief
turn toward the west-northwest is possible on Sunday. Marie
is then expected to resume a northwestward heading at a faster
forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and
Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 051442
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Marie's appearance has changed little since the last advisory.
Recent IR satellite imagery indicates the hurricane continues
to have a ragged banding eye with a dry air wrapping around the
north of its center. The initial intensity remains 80 kt for this
advisory, based on the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of 4.5/77 kt and
the UW-CIMSS objective estimates including SATCON, DPRINT, and
DMINT which were all around 80 kt as of 1200 UTC.

Only very slight changes were made to the NHC forecast for Marie to
show a slightly faster storm motion during the next couple of days.
Otherwise, the forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and
remains heavily based on the HCCA consensus. The hurricane is
forecast to move northwestward for the next day or two, generally
along the western periphery of a ridge centered over the southern
United States. Slow weakening is expected during this period as the
cyclone encounters gradually drier air (SHIPS diagnostics indicate
environmental RH below 60 percent) and SSTs of 25-27 deg C.

A temporary west-northwestward bend will be possible next week as
Marie becomes weaker and shallower, but the cyclone should
ultimately accelerate northwestward or north-northwestward by
late Tuesday in response to a deep-layer trough that models
indicate will build to its west. The forecast uncertainty increases
during this period, but the model spread has decreased since
yesterday so confidence in the forecast is growing. Simulated
satellite imagery indicates Marie will lose its remaining deep
convection and become a remnant low near or just after 96 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 21.8N 120.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 121.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 23.3N 122.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 24.1N 123.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 24.7N 124.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 25.4N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 26.5N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 29.4N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 33.3N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 051442
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
1500 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 120.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT.......170NE 160SE 140SW 180NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 330SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 120.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 120.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 121.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.3N 122.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N 124.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.4N 125.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 29.4N 128.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 33.3N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 120.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 050843
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Marie currently has a ragged banding eye in satellite imagery,
which is open to the north due to a patch of dry air currently
located to the north of the center. The various satellite intensity
estimates have edged down just a little, and based on them the
initial intensity is reduced to 80 kt.

The hurricane is now moving northwest or 315/7 kt. The cyclone
should continue slowly northwestward for the next two to three days
as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge. After 72 h,
Marie is forecast to encounter a large mid- to upper-level trough
west of California. As that happens, the cyclone is likely to
become decoupled vertically, with the low-level part of the
circulation turning north-northwestward. The new track forecast is
in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and is
similar to the previous forecast. As in the previous advisory, it
should be noted that model spread is quite large beyond 2 to 3 days.

For the first 24-36 h, Marie will be over seas surface temperatures
of 26-27C and in a light vertical shear environment. During this
time, dry air entrainment is forecast to cause a slow weakening.
The weakening rate should increase after 36 h as the cyclone moves
over colder water, and after 72 h strong shear associated with the
aforementioned trough should become the final factor in causing the
associated convection to dissipate. The new intensity forecast has
a few tweaks to better follow the overall trend of the guidance,
and it calls for the system to weaken until it degenerates to a
remnant low around 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 21.4N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 22.1N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 22.9N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 23.6N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 24.3N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 24.9N 124.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 25.7N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.2N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 32.1N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 050842
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 05 2026

...MARIE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 119.7W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 119.7 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue for the
next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and
Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 050842
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 119.7W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT.......170NE 160SE 140SW 180NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 285SE 300SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 119.7W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 119.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 120.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 0SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 121.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.6N 122.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.3N 123.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.9N 124.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.7N 125.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.2N 127.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 32.1N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 119.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 050232
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Marie continues to display a ragged eye surrounded by a large area
of convection with cloud tops between -50 to -60C. Some dry air
still appears to be entraining into the core. Recent subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates range from 75-94 kt. Thus,
the initial intensity will be held at 85 kt for this advisory.

Marie has turned toward the northwest, with an initial motion
estimate of 305/7 kt. Marie will continue moving slowly
northwestward during the next few days as it passes in between a
ridge to its west and ridging to its east. By the middle of next
week, an upper-level trough near the U.S. West Coast may cause what
is left of Marie to turn more toward the north-northwest in 4 to 5
days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
forecast, and lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and the
Google DeepMind (GDMI) ensemble mean. It should be noted that model
spread is quite large beyond 2 to 3 days.

It appears as though Marie has already peaked in intensity (no more
strengthening is expected). Although vertical wind shear is
expected to remain low for the next 3 days, Marie will be moving
into gradually cooler water temperatures as well as a drier air
mass. By 48 hours, water temperatures will be below 26C and the
mid-level relative humidity will be below 50 percent. The NHC
intensity forecast shows Marie weakening to a tropical storm by hour
48, and it shows a slightly faster weakening compared to the
previous forecast. The intensity forecast is still near the higher
end of the guidance suite. Marie is likely to lose its convection
by day 5 and become a post-tropical cyclone, and that scenario is
indicated by both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 20.8N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 21.5N 119.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 22.4N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 24.5N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 25.2N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 27.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 30.9N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 050231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026

...MARIE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 119.0W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 119.0 West. Marie is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Saturday
and continue for the next several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and
Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 050231
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 119.0W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT.......170NE 160SE 140SW 180NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 270SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 119.0W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 119.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 0SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.4N 121.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 123.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 27.4N 127.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 30.9N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 119.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 042036
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Marie is contending with dry air today, which is likely inhibiting
significant strengthening. A broad region of dry air persists
immediately west of the hurricane, and recent infrared satellite
imagery shows a dry slot wrapping from the southwest to the
northeast around the center. This dry-air intrusion has
substantially weakened the deep convection that was previously
concentrated north and east of the eye. However, recent objective
and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 73-90 kt. The
initial intensity is maintained at 85 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is 285/7 kt, with the hurricane moving along the
southeastern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge centered between
Marie and Hurricane Karina well to the west. A strong closed low
moving into the Pacific Northwest today is expected to weaken this
ridge and induce a turn toward the northwest tonight through this
weekend. Through 72 h, the updated track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope, and is closest to the Google
DeepMind and HCCA. As Marie weakens early next week, the cyclone is
expected to become increasingly steered by the low- to mid-level
environmental flow. An eventual turn toward the north is possible by
midweek as a new trough approaches the western U.S. Beyond 72 h, the
forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous advisory, and
Marie is expected to remain well offshore of the western United
States.

Marie is currently moving over warm waters of 27-28 C and through an
environment of low wind shear, but dry mid-level air continues to
take its toll on the hurricane. Increasingly unfavorable upper-level
winds are expected to support very slow weakening over the next day
or two, followed by more pronounced weakening early next week as
Marie moves over cooler waters and into an increasingly dry
mid-level environment. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF
and GFS suggests that Marie may struggle to maintain organized
convection by the middle of next week. Accordingly, the latest NHC
intensity forecast calls for Marie to degenerate into a
post-tropical remnant low by day 5, with dissipation around day 6.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 20.2N 118.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.9N 119.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 21.8N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 22.6N 121.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 23.3N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 24.0N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 26.6N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 29.5N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 042034
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026

...DRY AIR INHIBITING MARIE'S STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 118.6W
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 118.6 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. A slow weakening trend is forecast this weekend, followed by
more rapid weakening early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for
the next few days and are expected to spread northward to Southern
California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 042034
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 118.6W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 150SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....315NE 270SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 118.6W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 118.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.9N 119.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.6N 121.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.3N 122.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.0N 123.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 124.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.6N 126.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 29.5N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 118.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 13E (MARIE) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 117.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 117.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.7N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.5N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.3N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.2N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.9N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.5N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 25.9N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.5N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 118.1W.
04SEP26. HURRICANE 13E (MARIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 768 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041200Z IS 972 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 11E (KARINA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 041443
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Deep convection is concentrated south and east of a ragged eye,
while dry air continues to wrap around the northern and western
portions of the circulation. A recent GPM GMI microwave pass showed
a slightly elongated eye along with erosion of the western eyewall.
The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 5.0/90 kt, while
remotely-sensed estimates span a broader range of 69-96 kt. The
initial intensity is maintained at 85 kt for this advisory.

Marie is moving toward the west-northwest around 8 kt, and is
flanked by a weak mid-level ridge to the west and a strong closed
low moving into the Pacific Northwest. The hurricane is expected to
continue on this heading through tonight before the ridge weakens
and the low digs southeastward over California, causing Marie to
turn northwestward. Little change has been made to the previous
forecast through days 3-4. After day 4, the weakening cyclone is
expected to become increasingly steered by the low- to mid-level
environmental flow and remain well offshore over the eastern
Pacific. The official track forecast has been shifted to the right
of the previous advisory beyond day 4, toward the latest Google
DeepMind and corrected consensus (HCCA) guidance.

Despite moving over warm waters and through an environment of low
wind shear, Marie is contending with relatively dry mid-level air,
which is likely limiting significant strengthening. Similar
environmental conditions are expected through tonight, supporting
little change in intensity. Beginning Saturday, Marie is forecast to
encounter increasingly dry low- and mid-level air along with cooler
sea surface temperatures, resulting in gradual weakening. More
substantial weakening is expected next week as the hurricane moves
into increasingly unfavorable conditions. The official forecast is
close to the intensity model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 20.1N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.7N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.5N 120.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 22.3N 121.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 24.5N 123.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 25.9N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 28.5N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 041441
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026

...MARIE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 117.9W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 117.9 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn
toward the northwest is expected within the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for
the next few days and are expected to spread northward to Southern
California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 041440
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 117.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 270SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 117.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 120.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.3N 121.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.5N 123.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.9N 126.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 28.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 040855
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Marie has numerous bands of deep convection in its circulation, but
the inner core is still not very well defined with a somewhat
ragged-looking eye. The system has a prominent upper-level outflow
pattern, indicative of a low-shear environment. Remotely-sensed
intensity estimates are generally in the range of 80-90 kt, and the
current intensity estimate is kept at 85 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or around 295/8 kt, on
the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge. Global
models depict a 500-mb trough swinging into California in a couple
of days. This evolution is likely to result in Marie turning
toward the northwest in 36 hours or so. Later in the forecast
period, the weakening cyclone should move more with the low- to
mid-level environmental flow and remain well offshore over the
eastern Pacific. The official track forecast is nudged a bit to
the right of the previous one in 3-5 days, toward the latest Google
DeepMind and corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance.

Marie is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind
shear for the next several days. However SSTs are forecast to
decrease, and the system should be encounter a drier low- to
mid-level air mass by 48 hours. Some strengthening is forecast
while the hurricane remains in a conducive atmospheric and oceanic
environment through tonight. Later, a weakening trend is likely as
Marie encounters less favorable conditions. The official forecast
is close to the intensity model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 19.9N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.3N 118.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 21.0N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 21.9N 120.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 22.7N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 23.5N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 24.2N 123.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 25.3N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 27.4N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 040854
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026

...MARIE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 117.1W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 117.1 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn
toward the northwest is expected within the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, but a slow weakening
trend is expected to begin on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). The Mexican Navy Weather station on Clarion Island
recently reported sustained winds of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a wind
gust to 70 mph (112 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for
the next few days and are expected to spread northward to Southern
California through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 040853
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0900 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.1W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.1W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 118.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 119.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.9N 120.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.7N 121.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 122.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.2N 123.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 25.3N 125.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 27.4N 127.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 117.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 040256
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026

The convective state of Marie has improved slightly over the past 6
hours, with less evidence of the dry slotting that was observed
earlier. The center is embedded underneath the large convective
canopy. A recent SSMIS pass was helpful in estimating the center
position. The latest TAFB estimate remains T4.5/77 kt while the
objective intensity estimates have increased slightly to the 80-87
kt range. The initial intensity is raised to 85 kt as the satellite
presentation has improved since the time of the TAFB Dvorak fix.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. A
slightly slower motion in the same direction is expected over the
next few days as Marie moves closer to a mid-level ridge located to
its north. In about 4 days, a mid- to upper-level trough
approaching the west coast of the United States may induce a gradual
turn toward the northwest. Some of the model guidance has shifted
to the right in the long-range forecast over the past couple of
cycles, and the NHC forecast is shifted accordingly to the right
(north) of the previous track at days 3-5. The NHC forecast is just
a bit to the southwest of the latest HCCA and GDMI models at those
time ranges. It should be noted that the spread in the track
guidance remains large at days 4 and 5, and confidence in the track
forecast is below average at those time ranges.

The vertical wind shear is expected to remain low along Marie's path
for the next 4 days. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and
atmospheric moisture will still remain favorable enough for some
slight additional intensification to be possible through tonight.
Thereafter, SSTs and moisture will gradually decrease along Marie's
track for the remainder of the forecast period. This will lead to
gradual weakening beginning on Saturday. Very little change was
made to the first 2 days of the intensity forecast, during which
time the forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance.
A slightly faster rate of weakening is shown at days 4 and 5, and
this portion of the forecast lies closer to the middle of the
guidance envelope. The NHC forecast shows the cyclone still hanging
onto tropical storm status at day 5 as it remains well offshore of
the Baja California Peninsula.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.6N 116.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 22.9N 121.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 23.5N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 26.4N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 040255
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026

...MARIE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 116.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 116.3 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through the weekend.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight
additional strengthening is possible tonight. Gradual weakening is
expected to begin by Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for
the next few days and are expected to spread northward to Southern
California Friday through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip
current risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 040255
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0300 UTC FRI SEP 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 116.3W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 210SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 116.3W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 115.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 121.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 123.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 26.4N 128.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 116.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 032043
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026

The convection surrounding the center of Hurricane Marie has
fluctuated today, with some mid-level dry air now appearing to wrap
around its center. An earlier WSFM microwave pass depicted a compact
center of circulation, but north-northeasterly wind shear has
resulted in less-definition immediately north and east of the core.
The latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt, while
objective intensity estimates have decreased a little from this
morning, and currently range from 66-81 kt. Recent wind observations
from the Mexican Navy Weather Station on Clarion Island indicated
sustained winds near 55 kt with a peak wind gust of 76 kt. Based on
these observations and the available intensity estimates, the
initial intensity is maintained at 80 kt for this advisory package.

Marie is moving westward at 280/8 kt. A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected during the next 48-72 h as a ridge of high pressure
prevails to the northwest of the cyclone. Considerable spread
persists within the track guidance beyond 72 h, largely due to
differences in how a trough approaching the western United States
will influence the strength and position of the aforementioned
ridge. A stronger system moving into the western U.S. would erode
the ridge more substantially, resulting in a more northward track,
while a weaker system would allow the ridge to remain stronger and
favor a more west-northwestward track. Little change was made to the
track forecast through 72 h. Beyond that time, the forecast was
shifted to the right of the previous track forecast and is now
closer to the middle of the track guidance. Confidence in the track
forecast remains lower than normal.

Decreasing wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures of 28-29 C and
sufficiently moist mid-level air should support some strengthening
over the next day or so. It is worth noting that the ECMWF and GFS
SHIPS guidance maintain a small potential for rapid intensification
during this period, and because of this, the official NHC intensity
forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope. The
rate at which Marie weakens will be highly dependent on its eventual
track. A more northward track would allow the hurricane to remain in
slightly warmer waters for a longer period, while a more
west-northwestward track would bring Marie over cooler waters and
likely lead to faster weakening. The official forecast calls for
slow weakening during the second half of the weekend, followed by
more steady weakening early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.3N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.6N 116.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.2N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.9N 119.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 22.4N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 22.8N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 23.6N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 25.0N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 032042
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 03 2026

...MARIE MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 115.5W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 115.5 West. Marie is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast over the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km). The Mexican Navy Weather Station on Clarion Island
recently reported sustained winds of 63 mph (102 km/h) and a wind
gust to 88 mph (141 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of
southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few
days and will likely spread northward to Southern California over
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United
States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 032042
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 210SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 115.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.6N 116.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 117.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.9N 119.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.4N 121.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.8N 122.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.6N 125.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N 128.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 031449
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM MST Thu Sep 03 2026

The structure of Marie has improved this morning. First-light
visible satellite imagery shows convection becoming increasingly
symmetric around the hurricane's center, with colder cloud tops
wrapping nearly completely around the core. The latest Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt, while objective
intensity estimates range from 68-83 kt. Given the improved
satellite presentation and upward trend in intensity estimates, the
initial intensity has been set at 80 kt for this advisory.

Marie is moving west-northwestward around 9 kt, guided by a
mid-level ridge to its northwest. This general motion is expected to
continue over the next 2-3 days. By late this weekend into next
week, however, considerable spread develops in the track guidance as
the aforementioned ridge weakens and an upper-level low approaches
the West Coast of the United States. The strength of this low could
have a significant influence on Marie's long-range track. A stronger
system moving into the western U.S. would erode the ridge more
substantially and result in a more northward track, while a weaker
system would allow the ridge to remain stronger and keep Marie on a
more west-northwestward heading. Given these uncertainties,
confidence in the track forecast is somewhat lower than normal. The
latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous track and remains
very close to the Google Deep Mind and HCCA solutions through 60 h.
Thereafter, the forecast has been nudged to the right of the
previous track through the remainder of the forecast period.

The hurricane is moving through warm waters around 28-29 C in an
environment with low wind shear, moist mid-level air and favorable
upper-level divergence. These conditions are expected to persist
over the next 24-36 h, and Marie is forecast to gradually
strengthen. It is worth noting that the ECMWF and GFS SHIPS guidance
indicate a small potential for rapid intensification during this
period, and because of this, the official NHC forecast intensity
remains near the top of the guidance envelope. The medium- to
long-range intensity forecast will depend strongly on Marie's track.
A more northward track would allow the hurricane to remain in
slightly warmer waters for a longer period, while a more
west-northwestward track would bring Marie over cooler waters and
likely result in a faster rate of weakening. The official NHC
intensity forecast calls for Marie to begin slowly weakening this
weekend as increasing mid-level dry air wraps around the hurricane,
with a more steady rate of weakening expected early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 19.2N 114.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 20.0N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 21.4N 119.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 22.6N 122.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 23.3N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 24.1N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 031447
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM MST Thu Sep 03 2026

...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 114.9W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 114.9 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast over the next day or so,
followed by gradual weakening this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km). The Mexican Navy Weather Station on Clarion Island
recently reported a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h) in one of Marie's
outer rain bands.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of
southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few
days and will likely spread northward to Southern California over
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United
States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 031446
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 114.9W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT.......190NE 200SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....290NE 210SE 150SW 260NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 114.9W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 114.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 117.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.4N 119.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.2N 121.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 122.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.3N 125.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 24.1N 128.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 114.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030856
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM MST Thu Sep 03 2026

Marie continues to gradually become better organized, with very
deep convection near the center and a more symmetric convective
pattern. Satellite estimates have slightly increased since the
last advisory, and the initial intensity is set to 75 kt, closest
to the latest TAFB fix.

The intensity forecast for Marie is tricky. While it still has a
couple of days over warm waters with light shear, the structure
remains somewhat broad, with a large outer wind field. So far,
this has prevented anything other than gradual strengthening. It
is still a bit curious why most of the guidance don't intensify
this much during the next day or two, given the conducive
large-scale environment. While it is possible that Marie will be
affected by the wake of Iselle, the forecast track could also be
far enough away to miss the bulk of the cooler SSTs. The new
forecast is raised from the previous one, splitting the difference
between the higher SHIPS/LGEM/rapid intensification guidance and
the lower regional hurricane/corrected consensus models. A steady
weakening is likely after the system passes over colder waters in
about 3 days.

Marie is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt. There are no
changes to the previous synoptic pattern as this general course
is anticipated to continue for the next several days due to a
narrow ridge to the north. While this ridge weakens later on,
Marie should slow down a bit, but stay moving west-northwestward.
The new forecast is close to an update of the last one, near a
consensus of the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and the HFIP
Corrected Consensus HCCA model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.9N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 19.3N 115.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.8N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 20.3N 118.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 21.0N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.3N 121.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 22.9N 124.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 23.6N 127.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030856
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM MST Thu Sep 03 2026

...MARIE GRADUALLY GAINING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 113.9W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 113.9 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion
should continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of
southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few
days and will likely spread northward to southern California over
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United
States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030855
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0900 UTC THU SEP 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 113.9W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 210SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 113.9W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.3N 115.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 116.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 118.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 119.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.3N 121.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 22.9N 124.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 23.6N 127.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 030247
TCDEP3

Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026

The latest infrared satellite imagery shows a burst of convection is
attempting to wrap around the center of Marie. This is a moderate
amount of improvement over the last several hours, as the hurricane
seems to have shaken off the dry air seen earlier. The most recent
TAFB subjective Dvorak fix is T4.5/77 kt and the UW-CIMSS objective
intensity estimates are in the range of 62-75 kt. Based on the
given data for this advisory, the initial intensity has been set to
70 kt making Marie a hurricane.

The general motion for Marie is to the northwest at 320/10 kt, and
the cyclone is expected to maintain that heading for the next
several days as a narrow mid-level ridge located to the north will
steer the hurricane off to the west-northwest. During this time, the
cyclone should slow down as the ridge gradually weakens. There is
still a good amount of cross-track spread that is due to how much an
amplified mid-latitude trough, off the western United States coast,
erodes the previously mentioned ridge. The current NHC track is
similar to the previous track but slightly farther south. This track
is still a bit north of the HCCA track.

The intensity for this forecast is a little higher than the previous
forecast. Given that the hurricane is expected to continue to be in
favorable conditions with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), diagnosed
by the SHIPS guidance between 27-29 C, relative humidity around 70
percent, and light wind shear, Marie is likely to continue to
intensify. The peak forecast is tricky in this situation due to the
potential for Marie to move over the cold wake left by Iselle last
week, as these waters may cap the peak intensity. Marie should be
crossing the 26 C SST isotherm after 60 h, and weakening is expected
to begin in earnest beyond this time period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 18.4N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 19.7N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 22.0N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 22.9N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 23.4N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 030246
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026

...MARIE BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 113.1W
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 113.1 West. Marie is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion should
continue through tonight followed by a turn more west-northwestward
for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through
Friday. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of
southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few
days and will likely spread northward to southern California over
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United
States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 030245
TCMEP3

HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 113.1W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 30SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 113.1W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.7N 115.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 120.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 123.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 23.4N 126.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 113.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 022042
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026

Since the previous advisory, Marie has experienced bit of a hiccup
in its convective structure, with warming clouds tops near the
center aside from a recent burst wrapping around west of the
center. The most recent microwave pass from this morning showed a
banding type eye attempting to form, though it was struggling to
close off on its northwest side. In addition, there was an RCM-3
SAR pass earlier today with an interesting structure, showing a
small core, but with stronger winds occuring along the outer bands
of Marie's circulation. This structure hints that it might take
some time for the inner-core to fully consolidate. For now, the
18 UTC TAFB Dvorak satellite estimate was T3.5/55 kt, while the
objective intensity estimates range from 53 to 67 kt. Thus, the
initial intensity will remain 60 kt this advisory, keeping Marie
just shy of hurricane intensity.

Marie appears to be a little right of the prior forecast track, but
is still moving off to the northwest, with the estimated motion at
310/10 kt. Over the next several days, a narrow mid-level ridge
located to the north and northeast is expected to steer the tropical
cyclone generally off to the west-northwest, gradually slowing its
forward motion in the process as the ridge slowly weakens. Beyond 60
h, there continues to be significant cross-track spread that
develops among the model guidance, related to how much an amplified
mid-latitude trough, off the western United States coast, erodes
this ridge. For this cycle, some of the more reliable track aids,
ECMWF, Google DeepMind (GDMI), HCCA, actually show Marie turning
back westward in the day 4-5 time frame, as the ridge holds to the
north of the cyclone while the mid-latitude trough moves inland over
the western United States. However, there remain a minority of
solutions that show a more rightward track if the trough fully
erodes the ridge steering Marie. The NHC track forecast this cycle
is slightly right of the prior one for the first 48-60 h, following
the latest trends in the GDMI and HCCA aids, but now bends a little
more westward in days 4-5, also following trends in these aids.

Intensity-wise, the earlier SAR imagery in addition to a partial
ASCAT-C pass show Marie has a broad wind field with a
larger-than-normal radius of maximum wind. This could prevent more
rapid development over the next couple of days despite the favorable
environmental conditions. Thereafter, while sea-surface
temperatures (SSTs), diagnosed by SHIPS guidance between 27-28 C,
appear favorable, some of these waters were recently churned up by
the last tropical cyclone along this track (Iselle last week), and
the HAFS-A/B hurricane-regional models suggest the large wind field
of Marie could upwell some cooler waters underneath. Thus the latest
NHC intensity forecast shows a somewhat lower intensity than
earlier, peaking at 80 kt in the day 2-3 time frame. This intensity
forecast favors the hurricane-regional models over the latest SHIPS
guidance given the potential for ocean upwelling. Marie should be
crossing the 26 C SST isotherm after 72 h, and weakening is expected
to begin in earnest beyond this time period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.0N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.7N 113.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 19.5N 115.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 20.2N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.8N 117.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 21.5N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 22.1N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 23.5N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 23.7N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 022041
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026

...MARIE STILL JUST SHY OF HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 112.5W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 112.5 West. Marie is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion
should continue through tonight followed by a turn more
west-northwestward for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Friday, and
Marie is likely to become a hurricane tonight. Gradual weakening is
anticipated to begin by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of
southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few
days and will likely spread northward to southern California over
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United
States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 022040
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 30SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 65SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.2N 116.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.8N 117.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 85NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 119.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 65NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 120.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 65SE 45SW 65NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.7N 125.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 112.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 021435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM MST Wed Sep 02 2026

...MARIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 111.7W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 111.7 West. Marie is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion should
continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday,
and Marie is likely to become a hurricane later today. A gradual
weakening trend is expected over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of
southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few
days and will likely spread northward to southern California over
the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United
States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 021436
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM MST Wed Sep 02 2026

Conventional satellite animation and microwave images indicate that
Marie's cloud pattern has improved during the past several hours.
An impressive primary spiral band with cold cloud tops of -83C
resides on the eastern half of the cyclone, and inner core deep
convection continues to become better organized. A compromise of
TAFB's Dvorak satellite intensity estimate and the CIMSS objective
estimates yields an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory.

Favorable environmental conditions along with warm sea surface
temperatures should allow for further strengthening during the
couple of days. By the weekend, the Decay-SHIPS
statistical/dynamical intensity guidance and the global models
indicate that Marie will encounter a drier, stable marine layer air
mass while moving over progressively cooler oceanic temperatures.
The NHC intensity forecast is close to the HFIP HCCA consensus and
just above the IVCN consensus aid.

Marie's initial motion is estimated to be northwest, or 305/8 kt,
and this general motion should continue through today. Afterward,
subtropical high pressure over northern Mexico/Baja California
peninsula is expected to build westward over the extreme eastern
Pacific, steering the cyclone generally west-northwestward. Over
the weekend, the above-mentioned ridge should weaken some, and model
guidance cross-track uncertainty remains due to two possible
synoptic pattern solutions. A few of the regional models
(HWRF/HMON/TC-COAMPS) and the UKMET indicate an amplifying mid- to
upper-level trough capturing Marie and steering the cyclone toward
the northwest to north. The majority of the guidance, on the other
hand, show a cut-off upper low developing well to the north over the
eastern Pacific but allowing enough ridging to maintain north of the
cyclone. The official track forecast favors the latter solution and
lies between the HCCA consensus and the Google DeepMind FNv3
ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.1N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.8N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.7N 114.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 19.4N 115.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 20.1N 117.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 21.3N 119.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 22.5N 122.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 23.2N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 021435
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
1500 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.7W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 30SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....265NE 210SE 130SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.7W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.8N 112.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.4N 115.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.1N 117.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 119.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 122.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.2N 125.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020844
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM MST Wed Sep 02 2026

Satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to produce deep
convection near the center, with a large curved band in the
southeastern semicircle of the storm. An earlier microwave image
did show that the inner core remains in the primitive stages of
development, though that was several hours ago now. Intensity
estimates are about the same as the last cycle, so the current winds
will remain 55 kt.

Marie remains on a northwestward heading tonight, steered by a
distant ridge over Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build westward
later this week, which will likely force Marie to move more towards
the west-northwest. Track uncertainty is high by the weekend due
to an approaching mid-latitude trough over the eastern Pacific,
though the bulk of the guidance show this trough missing the storm.
The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, showing
the west-northwestward track at the end of the forecast, and lying
near the typically reliable HCCA and GDMI consensus aids.

The storm has a couple of days over very warm waters within light
shear for intensification. The biggest current hindrance is
probably the earlier-observed broad microwave structure, though
very deep convection is near the center. Thus the NHC forecast
will stay on the aggressive side of the guidance, and little
change is made to the previous forecast. By the weekend, Marie is
forecast to move over cooler SSTs and into a drier, more stable air
mass, which should induce a gradual weakening trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 16.7N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.5N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 18.4N 113.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 19.1N 115.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 19.7N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 118.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 20.8N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 22.1N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 22.8N 124.6W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020843
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM MST Wed Sep 02 2026

...MARIE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 111.0W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 111.0 West. Marie is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, and that motion should
continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Marie is likely to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
few days and will likely spread northward to southern California
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020842
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0900 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 111.0W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 30SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 111.0W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.5N 112.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 113.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.1N 115.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 116.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.8N 119.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 121.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 22.8N 124.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 111.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020243
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
800 PM MST TUE SEP 01 2026

...MARIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 110.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THAT MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES (295 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. A DEPICTION OF RIP CURRENT
RISK FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN BE FOUND AT:
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP1.SHTML?RIPCURRENTS


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 020235
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM MST Tue Sep 01 2026

The satellite presentation for Marie continues to improve this
evening, with the low-level center beneath deep convection with
cold cloud tops near -80C. Satellite intensity estimates have also
increased, with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from
TAFB T3.5/55 kt. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range
from 37 to 55 kt. Based on the improving satellite trends and these
estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 55kt.

The initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt. This motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so as Marie rounds the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. The ridge is
then forecast to build to the north of the system, which should
cause Marie to gradually turn toward the west-northwest. Beyond 72
hours, track uncertainty increases as an amplifying trough along the
U.S. West Coast is forecast to cause the system to slow down. While
there is less confidence in the track late in the forecast period,
the latest NHC forecast continues to lie near the reliable HCCA and
GDMI consensus aids with a more westward track.

Marie is moving over warm sea surface temperatures and will remain
in a low vertical wind shear environment for the next couple of
days. The system remains fairly broad, but steady strengthening is
anticipated once the structure becomes better organized. Some of the
latest SHIPS rapid intensification guidance is around a 50 percent
chance of RI in the next 24 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and closely follows the trends of the
HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, although does not explicitly call for
rapid intensification. Some guidance shows a faster rate of
strengthening, though this remains heavily dependent on how quickly
the system's structure improves. Toward the end of the forecast
period, Marie is forecast to move over cooler SSTs and into a drier,
more stable air mass, which should induce a gradual weakening
trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.1N 110.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.9N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.9N 112.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.7N 114.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 19.4N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 19.8N 117.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 20.5N 118.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 22.8N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 020234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 PM MST Tue Sep 01 2026

...MARIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE..
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 110.3W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 110.3 West. Marie is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected on Wednesday and that motion should
continue through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next few days, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
few days and will likely spread northward to southern California
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 020234
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0300 UTC WED SEP 02 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.3W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 160SE 150SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.3W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 110.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 114.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 140SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.4N 115.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 130SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.8N 117.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 118.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N 123.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 110.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 012032
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM MST Tue Sep 01 2026

The satellite presentation of Marie continues to improve with
curved bands over the northern and eastern portions of the
circulation. Recent scatterometer data shows that Marie has a
large wind field with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward
up to 160 nautical miles over the eastern semicircle. The ASCAT
data revealed peak winds of 45 kt and given the typical
undersampling of that instrument, the initial intensity has been
raised to 50 kt. That value is near a consensus of the various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.

The storm will be moving over sea surface temperatures around
29 degrees Celsius and remain in a low shear environment during the
next couple of days. With the large radius of maximum winds, it
may take a little time for the system to establish an inner core,
but once that occurs steady intensification is likely. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast
and lies between the HCCA and GDMI models. There is some potential
that Marie could strengthen more quickly over the next day or two
than indicated in the forecast below. After day 4, cooler SSTs and
a more stable airmass are expected to cause gradual weakening.

Marie continues to move northwestward around the western portion of
a mid-level ridge over Mexico. A narrow ridge is forecast to
establish itself to the north of Marie in a day or two, which
should cause the system to turn west-northwestward. After 72 hours,
an amplifying mid-level trough along the west coast of the United
State could cause Marie to slow down. It is after that time period
that there is larger spread in the track guidance. The NHC forecast
leans closer to the typically reliable HFIP corrected consensus
model and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 15.5N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.5N 111.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 18.4N 113.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.2N 114.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 19.8N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 20.3N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 22.9N 122.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 012031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 PM MST Tue Sep 01 2026

...MARIE STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 109.5W
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 109.5 West. Marie is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected on Wednesday and that motion should
continue through Thursday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
Marie is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
mainly to the east and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
few days and will likely spread northward to southern California
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 012031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 109.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......140NE 170SE 150SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 109.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 109.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 150SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.5N 111.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.4N 113.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 140SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.2N 114.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 116.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 117.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.9N 122.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 109.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 011441
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM MST Tue Sep 01 2026

This morning's GOES-18 Proxy-VIS satellite imagery indicates that
Marie is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection with
cold cloud tops of -81C is developing over the surface circulation
center, and a spiral band is wrapping around the center from the
southwest part of the cyclone. No changes yet in both the
subjective and objective satellite intensity guidance, however, so
the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

The ocean is warm, the low- to mid-levels of the atmosphere are
moist, and the deep-layer shear is low. Subsequently, strengthening
is expected, and Marie should become a hurricane by Wednesday
night. By the weekend, the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS statistical intensity
guidance and the physics-based deterministic models indicate that
Marie will encounter a drier, stable marine layer air mass while
traversing progressively cooler oceanic temperatures. Accordingly,
the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows Marie slowly
weakening beyond day 4.

An earlier 0707 UTC OSCAT-3 scatterometer overpass and a
fortuitous 1247 UTC GPM/GMI image indicated that the surface center
was a bit farther northeast than previously noted, and near
the northwestern edge of the deep convective canopy. Marie's
initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/8 kt. A
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge stretching from northern
Mexico westward over the extreme eastern Pacific should steer
the cyclone generally northwestward through Thursday.
Afterward, the subtropical high should weaken in response to an
amplifying mid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of
the U.S. This change in the large-scale synoptic pattern is
expected to slow Marie's forward speed. For the remainder of the
forecast, the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough should fill
and lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build and reestablish
north of Marie and steer the system back toward the west-northwest
through the weekend. There's still quite a bit of cross-track
spread in the model suite beyond day 3, with one cluster indicating
a north-northwestward motion while another model cluster shows a
more west-northwestward trajectory. The official forecast reflects
slight adjustments to the left of the previous forecast and favors
a blend of the skilled NOAA HCCA consensus aid and the Google
DeepMind FNv3 ensemble mean forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 15.0N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.0N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 17.1N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 19.0N 113.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 19.7N 115.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 20.3N 117.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 21.4N 119.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 22.3N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 011440
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
800 AM MST Tue Sep 01 2026

...MARIE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 108.7W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 108.7 West. Marie is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn toward
the west-northwest is expected on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Marie is expected to become
a hurricane by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast
of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next
few days and will likely spread northward to southern California
over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current
risk for the United States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 011440
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 160SE 180SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 108.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 170SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 17.1N 111.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 160SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 160SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 113.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 130SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 117.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 21.4N 119.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.3N 122.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 108.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 010840
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 01 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection associated with
the disturbance offshore of southwestern Mexico has become better
organized over the past several hours. A 0327 UTC ASCAT-B pass
showed a well-defined circulation and peak winds of around 40 kt in
the southeastern quadrant. The scatterometer data also indicated
that the tropical-storm-force wind field is confined primarily to
the southern semicircle of the circulation. A subjective Dvorak
classification from TAFB was T2.5/35 kt. Based on these data,
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Marie with an
initial intensity of 40 kt.

Marie is moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt. The subtropical ridge
extending westward from northern Mexico should steer Marie
northwestward during the next several days. The ridge is forecast to
gradually weaken as a broad upper-level trough deepens along the
U.S. West Coast, which should also result in some decrease in the
cyclone's forward speed. By days 4 and 5, the upper trough is
forecast to begin filling while the mid- to upper-level ridge builds
to the north of Marie, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward
the west-northwest. The track guidance remains tightly clustered
through about day 3, but there is increasing cross-track spread
thereafter, with some models maintaining a more northward trajectory
and others showing a sharper west-northwestward turn. The NHC track
forecast favors the west-northwestward turn shown by the multi-model
consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, but
confidence is lower near the end of the forecast period due to the
increasing guidance spread.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for Marie to steadily
strengthen during the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to
remain over warm waters and within an environment of low vertical
wind shear and sufficient mid-level moisture. These conditions
should allow Marie to become a hurricane in a couple of days, with
additional strengthening forecast thereafter. By days 4 and 5,
however, Marie is forecast to encounter a progressively drier
environment while moving over gradually decreasing sea surface
temperatures. These less favorable conditions should bring an end to
the strengthening trend and result in gradual weakening by the end
of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Marie
reaching a peak intensity of around 80 kt in about 3 days, and lies
near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 13.8N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 14.8N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 16.0N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 18.8N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 19.4N 117.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 20.9N 119.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 010837
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
200 AM MST TUE SEP 01 2026

...TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 108.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES (260 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 010837
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 108.9W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 140SE 100SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 90SE 105SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 108.9W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 108.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 109.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 150SE 90SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.0N 111.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 160SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 115.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.4N 117.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.9N 119.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 108.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=