Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NORBERT-26
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 151600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 024A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 024A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 142.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
FORMATION AS TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 142.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.6N 145.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.6N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
151600Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 143.3W. 15SEP26. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 14E
(NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 717 NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 15 FEET.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED STORM DESIGNATION FOR
14E.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 151622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 15.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 123.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2026 0 15.9N 123.3W 1004 23
0000UTC 16.09.2026 12 15.7N 125.2W 1003 25
1200UTC 16.09.2026 24 15.3N 127.3W 1004 24
0000UTC 17.09.2026 36 15.2N 129.5W 1003 25
1200UTC 17.09.2026 48 16.0N 132.1W 1004 25
0000UTC 18.09.2026 60 16.2N 134.6W 1005 27
1200UTC 18.09.2026 72 17.0N 137.1W 1006 25
0000UTC 19.09.2026 84 17.5N 139.9W 1007 26
1200UTC 19.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 142.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2026 0 20.5N 142.5W 1008 26
0000UTC 16.09.2026 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.4N 38.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2026 72 14.4N 38.8W 1012 25
0000UTC 19.09.2026 84 15.0N 40.5W 1011 23
1200UTC 19.09.2026 96 15.9N 41.6W 1011 29
0000UTC 20.09.2026 108 17.3N 42.6W 1011 27
1200UTC 20.09.2026 120 18.7N 43.9W 1012 28
0000UTC 21.09.2026 132 20.7N 44.8W 1013 26
1200UTC 21.09.2026 144 23.1N 46.3W 1015 29
0000UTC 22.09.2026 156 25.2N 47.6W 1015 27
1200UTC 22.09.2026 168 28.1N 48.7W 1014 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 16.3N 131.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 20.09.2026 108 16.3N 132.5W 1006 28
1200UTC 20.09.2026 120 16.1N 134.7W 1005 28
0000UTC 21.09.2026 132 16.0N 137.4W 1003 32
1200UTC 21.09.2026 144 15.7N 139.8W 1001 30
0000UTC 22.09.2026 156 16.1N 142.7W 1001 33
1200UTC 22.09.2026 168 16.4N 145.7W 1001 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 25.0N 90.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 156 25.0N 90.4W 1008 23
1200UTC 22.09.2026 168 25.5N 91.7W 1005 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 151622


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 151432
TCDCP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert Discussion Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Sep 15 2026

Norbert has lacked organized deep convection for about 18 hours
now, and the only remaining thunderstorm activity is more than 120
n mi from the center. Based on the persistent lack of organized
convection, Norbert no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and
this is the last advisory on this system. The initial intensity is
estimated to be around 30 kt.

The remnant low is moving westward at about 11 kt, and this general
motion is expected to continue until the system opens into a trough
on Wednesday.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 20.5N 143.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 16/0000Z 20.6N 145.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 20.6N 148.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 151432
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST TUE SEP 15 2026

...NORBERT IS NOW A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 143.1W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 143.1 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20
KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND THE REMNANT LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON NORBERT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN01
KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 151431
TCMCP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 143.1W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 143.1W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 142.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 145.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.6N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 143.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON NORBERT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01
KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 150837
TCDCP1

Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026

Deep convection has completely dissipated over the low-level center
of Norbert, which is fully exposed on proxy-visible satellite
imagery. What limited convection remains is displaced more than 150
n mi to the northeast of the center and has become intermittent.
Given the persistent lack of organized deep convection, Norbert's
remaining time as a tropical cyclone is limited. Based on satellite
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, JTWC, and HFO, the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

Norbert continues moving generally westward, with an initial motion
of 280/12 kt. The system should continue to move westward over the
next day or two, steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.
The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one
and remains closely aligned with the HCCA consensus aid.

The depression will continue to be within an environment of
moderate to strong wind shear and mid-level dry air. Due to this
hostile environment, Norbert is expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone on Tuesday, with the system dissipating into an open trough
shortly thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 20.3N 141.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 20.6N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z 20.6N 146.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 150836
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST MON SEP 14 2026

...NORBERT LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW TUESDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 141.7W
ABOUT 870 MI...1400 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 141.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TOMORROW MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 150835
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP142026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 141.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 141.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 141.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.6N 143.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.6N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 141.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 150232
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
500 PM HST MON SEP 14 2026

DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DRAMATICALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
NORBERT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A FAIRLY RECENT OCEANSAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS AND A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH,
AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT.

NORBERT IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 285/13 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE MAINLY WESTWARD
WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LATEST CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS, HCCA, GUIDANCE.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN
24 HOURS AND THEN OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY.

NOW THAT NORBERT IS IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN HEADERS
BEGINNING WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST. FUTURE TROPICAL
CYCLONE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP1 AND
WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO. PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AVAILABLE ON
THE WEB AT HURRICANES.GOV


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 20.2N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 20.5N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 20.7N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 20.8N 147.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 150232
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Norbert Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
500 PM HST Mon Sep 14 2026

...NORBERT LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 140.5W
ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Norbert
was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 140.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h)
and a generally westward motion is expected over the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Norbert is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Future information on Norbert can be found under Central Pacific
basin headers starting with the next advisory at 1100 PM HST, under
AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO. Products will
continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov.


Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 150231
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 140.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 140.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 139.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.5N 142.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.7N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.8N 147.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 140.5W

FUTURE INFORMATION ON NORBERT CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES
ISSUED UNDER CENTRAL PACIFIC HEADERS...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1
...WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 142041
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM HST MON SEP 14 2026

DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE EAST
OF NORBERT'S CENTER WITH WARMING CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES. THE CENTER
IS BECOMING EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION, WHILE ALSO
BECOMING MORE ELONGATED IN NATURE. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT A
WEAKENING TREND IS IMMINENT. HOWEVER, SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE NOT CHANGED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND A SCATTEROMETER PASS
AROUND 1830Z STILL DEPICTED MAX WINDS OF 35 KT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 280/13 KT. THE
STORM REMAINS POSITIONED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER NORBERT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR
NORBERT TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, RESULTING IN A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON TUESDAY, AND THEN OPEN INTO A
TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS AN EARLIER TRANSITION
TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBSEQUENT DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 19.7N 139.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 20.0N 141.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 20.2N 143.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z 20.4N 146.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 142039
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 14 2026

...NORBERT FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 139.2W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 139.2 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and is expected
to maintain this general motion during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Norbert
is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 142038
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 139.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 139.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 138.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.0N 141.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.2N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.4N 146.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 139.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 141654

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 119.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2026 0 16.2N 119.2W 1004 26
0000UTC 15.09.2026 12 16.2N 120.8W 1002 28
1200UTC 15.09.2026 24 16.1N 123.1W 1003 28
0000UTC 16.09.2026 36 15.6N 125.6W 1002 26
1200UTC 16.09.2026 48 15.0N 128.2W 1003 26
0000UTC 17.09.2026 60 14.9N 130.5W 1003 27
1200UTC 17.09.2026 72 15.5N 132.9W 1003 26
0000UTC 18.09.2026 84 15.9N 135.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 18.09.2026 96 16.5N 138.1W 1006 28
0000UTC 19.09.2026 108 16.4N 141.0W 1006 28
1200UTC 19.09.2026 120 16.0N 143.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 20.09.2026 132 15.5N 145.4W 1006 26
1200UTC 20.09.2026 144 14.7N 147.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 21.09.2026 156 14.2N 148.8W 1005 27
1200UTC 21.09.2026 168 12.9N 151.0W 1005 28

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 137.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2026 0 19.5N 137.2W 1004 32
0000UTC 15.09.2026 12 20.2N 140.1W 1006 27
1200UTC 15.09.2026 24 20.8N 142.8W 1008 26
0000UTC 16.09.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 30.4N 60.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2026 96 30.4N 60.2W 1015 21
0000UTC 19.09.2026 108 29.5N 60.3W 1013 20
1200UTC 19.09.2026 120 28.6N 59.0W 1010 24
0000UTC 20.09.2026 132 27.3N 57.4W 1008 26
1200UTC 20.09.2026 144 26.1N 56.2W 1007 27
0000UTC 21.09.2026 156 25.5N 55.4W 1007 27
1200UTC 21.09.2026 168 25.3N 54.8W 1007 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 16.0N 135.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2026 144 16.0N 135.4W 1005 26
0000UTC 21.09.2026 156 16.4N 136.7W 1004 30
1200UTC 21.09.2026 168 17.3N 139.4W 1004 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141654


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 141437
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM HST MON SEP 14 2026

DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -80 C, HAS
CONTINUED NEAR AND EAST OF NORBERT'S CENTER. THE CENTER IS ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO SHEAR. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS, SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 280/13 KT. THE
STORM REMAINS POSITIONED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER NORBERT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

A COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR
NORBERT TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, RESULTING IN A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON TUESDAY. THE CURRENT NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS
NORBERT DISSIPATING AS IT OPENS INTO A TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 19.4N 137.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 19.8N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 20.2N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 20.4N 145.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 20.6N 147.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BANN/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 141435
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 AM HST Mon Sep 14 2026

...NORBERT HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 137.8W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 137.8 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and is expected to
maintain this general motion during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
A gradual weakening trend is forecast during the next couple of
days, and Norbert could become a post-tropical cyclone tomorrow.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 141434
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 137.8W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 15SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 137.8W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 137.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.8N 139.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 142.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.4N 145.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 20.6N 147.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 137.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BANN/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 140841
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 13 2026

A RENEWED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS -80 C, HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND EAST OF NORBERT'S CIRCULATION
CENTER DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE
RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION, AN ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED
AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH PEAK WINDS OF 34 KT NORTH OF THE
CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 280/11 KT. THE
STORM REMAINS POSITIONED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD
STEER NORBERT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY
UNCHANGED, REFLECTING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN (GDMI).

A COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD MAKE IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR
NORBERT TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION, RESULTING IN A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
SHOWS NORBERT DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY AND
DISSIPATING AS IT OPENS INTO A TROUGH BY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.3N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 19.7N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 20.2N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 20.5N 143.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 20.7N 146.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140838
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 13 2026

...NORBERT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 136.4W
ABOUT 1725 MI...2770 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1215 MI...1960 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 136.4 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and is expected to
maintain this general motion during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some intensity fluctuations are possible, but a gradual weakening
trend is forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 140838
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 136.4W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 10SE 20SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 136.4W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 135.8W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.7N 138.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.2N 141.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.7N 146.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 136.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140247
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
500 PM HST Sun Sep 13 2026

...NORBERT HOLDS STEADY ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 135.3W
ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 135.3 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and is
expected to maintain this general motion during the next couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations remain possible, but a gradual weakening trend is
forecast during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 140247
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
500 PM HST SUN SEP 13 2026

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CONTINUES TO DISPLACE ANY DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF NORBERT'S CENTER.
EARLIER ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES DEPICTED AN
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH PEAK WINDS NEAR 40 KT NORTH OF THE
CENTER. GIVEN THESE DATA AND NORBERT'S LIMITED CONVECTION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/12 KT. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS IT REMAINS SOUTH
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL HEADING FOR THIS
STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND REMAINS CLOSE TO
THE CORRECTED MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
ENSEMBLE MEAN.

WHILE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12
H OR SO, NORBERT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND THAT SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
CONTEND WITH MODERATE WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND SHIPS GUIDANCE IS PROJECTING THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AFTER 12-24 H. SIMULATED GFS AND ECMWF SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOW NORBERT STRUGGLING TO GENERATE ANY DEEP CONVECTION BY 48 H.
THEREFORE, NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW AROUND TUESDAY, THEN DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE CORRECTED
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) GUIDANCE, WHICH FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 19.2N 135.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 19.5N 137.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 20.0N 139.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 20.4N 142.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 20.6N 145.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 140246
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 135.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 20SE 30SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 135.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 134.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.5N 137.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.0N 139.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.4N 142.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.6N 145.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 135.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 132037
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1100 AM HST SUN SEP 13 2026

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NORBERTS CENTER HAS BECOME
EXPOSED. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH AND EAST
SIDES OF THE STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A GOOD AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST TAFB
DVORAK FIX ESTIMATED THE INTENSITY AROUND 45 KT AND THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 32-39 KT. IN
ADDITION, RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER WERE AROUND 37 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/11 KT. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS IT MOVES TO THE
SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL HEADING FOR THIS
STORM. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
CORRECTED MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND
(GDMI) ENSEMBLE MEAN.

MORE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM AS
NORBERT REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
CONTEND WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSIONS AND LIGHT WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER 12 H, THE WIND SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
AROUND 60 H, THE SIMULATED GFS AND ECMWF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD LOSE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND IT IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THEN
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 72 H. THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HCCA AND
GDMI CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 18.8N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 19.2N 136.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 19.7N 138.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 20.2N 141.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 20.7N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 20.8N 146.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 132036
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 13 2026

...NORBERT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT ADVANCES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 134.0W
ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 134.0 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible
for the rest of the day, followed by a gradual weakening trend after
that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 132036
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 134.0W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 20SE 30SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 134.0W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 133.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.2N 136.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.7N 138.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.2N 141.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.7N 144.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.8N 146.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 134.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BROWN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131621

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 132.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2026 0 18.0N 132.5W 1001 31
0000UTC 14.09.2026 12 18.5N 134.7W 1003 30
1200UTC 14.09.2026 24 19.0N 137.2W 1005 33
0000UTC 15.09.2026 36 19.4N 140.1W 1006 26
1200UTC 15.09.2026 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 17.2N 117.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2026 12 17.1N 117.8W 1005 26
1200UTC 14.09.2026 24 16.6N 119.8W 1004 26
0000UTC 15.09.2026 36 16.6N 121.6W 1002 28
1200UTC 15.09.2026 48 16.2N 124.3W 1003 27
0000UTC 16.09.2026 60 15.6N 127.0W 1003 28
1200UTC 16.09.2026 72 15.3N 129.8W 1004 27
0000UTC 17.09.2026 84 14.9N 132.6W 1003 28
1200UTC 17.09.2026 96 14.9N 135.5W 1004 28
0000UTC 18.09.2026 108 14.7N 137.9W 1004 28
1200UTC 18.09.2026 120 15.8N 140.6W 1004 28
0000UTC 19.09.2026 132 15.9N 142.9W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2026 144 16.0N 145.2W 1006 31
0000UTC 20.09.2026 156 15.6N 147.4W 1006 29
1200UTC 20.09.2026 168 15.4N 148.9W 1006 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 33.2N 175.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2026 36 33.2N 175.5W 1005 32
1200UTC 15.09.2026 48 32.6N 175.3W 1005 34
0000UTC 16.09.2026 60 30.0N 177.4W 1007 31
1200UTC 16.09.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 34.1N 18.4E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2026 36 34.1N 18.4E 1010 32
1200UTC 15.09.2026 48 34.5N 20.8E 1004 41
0000UTC 16.09.2026 60 34.3N 22.6E 1006 39
1200UTC 16.09.2026 72 34.5N 24.9E 1006 30
0000UTC 17.09.2026 84 36.3N 27.9E 1007 29
1200UTC 17.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.5N 118.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.09.2026 108 14.5N 118.8W 1006 26
1200UTC 18.09.2026 120 14.6N 121.8W 1004 28
0000UTC 19.09.2026 132 14.3N 123.5W 1002 30
1200UTC 19.09.2026 144 14.3N 125.7W 1001 35
0000UTC 20.09.2026 156 14.5N 128.2W 999 35
1200UTC 20.09.2026 168 14.7N 130.8W 996 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.9N 164.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2026 132 14.0N 164.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 19.09.2026 144 14.1N 166.7W 1007 25
0000UTC 20.09.2026 156 14.1N 168.5W 1006 28
1200UTC 20.09.2026 168 14.2N 169.9W 1007 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131621


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 131435
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
500 AM HST Sun Sep 13 2026

Norbert’s overnight burst of convection has faded since the previous
advisory, however proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that a new
convective burst appears to be developing. Water vapor imagery
shows that there is still plenty of dry air surrounding the system.
The latest TAFB Dvorak fix came in with an intensity of 45 kt, and
the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the range of
37-43 kt. Therefore the initial intensity remains at 45 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/10 kt. The storm is
expected to move west-northwestward to westward as it moves to the
south of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. The track guidance
continue to show good agreement on this general heading of the
cyclone. The current NHC track forecast has been nudged a little
right of the previous forecast track and remains close to the
multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind (GDMI)
ensemble mean.

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the short term as
Norbert remains in a marginal environment. The cyclone is contending
with mid-level dry air intrusions and light west-southwesterly
vertical wind shear. After 12 h, the wind shear is expected to
increase, which should result in a generally weakening trend. Around
60 h, the simulated GFS and ECMWF satellite imagery shows that the
cyclone should lose organized deep convection and it is therefore
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low and then dissipated
around 72 h. The current NHC intensity forecast is in line with the
latest guidance including the HCCA and GDMI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 18.2N 132.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 18.6N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 19.0N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 19.4N 139.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 19.7N 142.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 19.8N 145.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 131434
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
500 AM HST Sun Sep 13 2026

...NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 132.7W
ABOUT 1510 MI...2425 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1465 MI...2360 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 132.7 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible for the rest of the
day, followed by a gradual weakening trend after that.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 131434
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 132.7W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 20SE 30SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 132.7W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 132.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.6N 134.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.0N 137.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.4N 139.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.7N 142.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.8N 145.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 132.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 130848
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
1100 PM HST Sat Sep 12 2026

...NORBERT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WELL EAST OF HAWAII BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 131.7W
ABOUT 1450 MI...2330 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1530 MI...2465 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 131.7 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some fluctuations in intensity remain possible over the next day or
so, followed by a gradual weakening trend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 130849
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1100 PM HST SAT SEP 12 2026

NORBERT'S CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. A RENEWED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH CLOUD-TOP
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -80 C, HAS BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE
CIRCULATION. RECENT ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED
AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH PEAK WINDS OF AROUND 45 KT NORTH OF
THE CENTER. GIVEN THESE NEW DATA AND THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 280/10 KT. THE STORM
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED,
BLENDING THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA),
AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 H WHILE
NORBERT REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT TEMPERED BY MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR AND SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR THE CIRCULATION.
THEREAFTER, INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL INDUCE A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS NORBERT DEGENERATING INTO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 60 H AND DISSIPATING AS IT OPENS INTO A
TROUGH BY 72 H.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 18.0N 131.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 18.3N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.8N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 19.1N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 19.4N 141.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 19.5N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 130847
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.7W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 45SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 131.7W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 131.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.3N 133.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 10SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.8N 135.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 10SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.1N 138.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.4N 141.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.5N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 131.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 130248
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
500 PM HST SAT SEP 12 2026

...NORBERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WELL EAST OF HAWAII BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 130.5W
ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1610 MI...2595 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 130.5 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. NORBERT IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 130248
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
500 PM HST SAT SEP 12 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NORBERT'S CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE MASS OVER
AND NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE, WITH
CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES ALSO WARMING. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE, AT
LEAST IN PART, TO SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE
CIRCULATION ALONG WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED AN ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH PEAK
WINDS JUST ABOVE 40 KT LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT, RANGING FROM 35
TO 50 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE DECREASED ORGANIZATION, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.

NORBERT'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR 280/10 KT.
THE STORM REMAINS POSITIONED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO, WHICH SHOULD STEER NORBERT ON A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED,
REFLECTING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE, WHICH LIE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE TRACK WILL BRING THE CYCLONE DEEPER INTO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
DOMINATED BY STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND BY 36 H. MODEL GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY REFLECTS THIS HOSTILE
SETUP SHOWING NORBERT OPENING INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF
HAWAII BY MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, THE UPDATED NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST ACCELERATES THE DECAY TIMELINE, DEGENERATING
NORBERT TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 H AND DISSIPATING IT BY 96 H.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 17.9N 130.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 18.3N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 18.7N 134.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 19.1N 136.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 19.3N 139.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 19.4N 142.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.3N 144.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 130247
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 20SE 30SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....135NE 45SE 75SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 130.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 130.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.3N 132.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.7N 134.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 10SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.1N 136.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.3N 139.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.4N 142.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.3N 144.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 130.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 122057
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 12 2026

...NORBERT A LITTLE WEAKER...
...NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 129.6W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1675 MI...2690 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 129.6 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next
several days.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is expected over the next 24 hours, but
weakening is likely to begin on Sunday. Norbert could degenerate
into a remnant low by Wednesday and dissipate by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 122057
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 12 2026

A 1712 UTC ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED THAT NORBERT'S CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A COMPACT MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE
WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRIC, FAVORING THE NORTHERN SIDE. THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED PEAK WIND VECTORS OF 42 KT WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND BASED ON THAT DATA, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 K.

NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/10 KT, LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP NORBERT ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE HAS BEEN ANOTHER NORTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE, AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION USING A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE LATEST HCCA AND GDMI AIDS, WHICH LIE ALONG THE NORTHERN
BOUNDARY OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN NORBERT'S EXPECTED TRACK WILL
TAKE IT FURTHER INTO THE ZONE OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN, INCLUDING OVER HAWAII.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE THE SHEAR STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, BUT INCREASING SHEAR
AND A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. IN FACT, THE NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS
RESPOND TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT BY SHOWING NORBERT DISSIPATING
INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HAWAII POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. FOR THIS UPDATE, THE
NHC FORECAST SHOWS NORBERT DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY
WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY BEFORE REACHING THE LONGITUDE
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 17.6N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 18.0N 131.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 18.5N 133.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 18.8N 135.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.1N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 19.3N 140.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 19.3N 143.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 122057
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 20SE 30SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 45SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 129.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 129.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.0N 131.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.5N 133.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.8N 135.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.1N 138.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.3N 140.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.3N 143.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 129.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 121621

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 128.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2026 0 17.0N 128.2W 998 34
0000UTC 13.09.2026 12 17.6N 129.9W 999 36
1200UTC 13.09.2026 24 18.3N 132.2W 1000 34
0000UTC 14.09.2026 36 18.9N 134.6W 1002 36
1200UTC 14.09.2026 48 19.2N 137.1W 1004 31
0000UTC 15.09.2026 60 19.7N 140.0W 1005 29
1200UTC 15.09.2026 72 20.0N 142.8W 1007 27
0000UTC 16.09.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 16.5N 118.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2026 36 16.2N 119.0W 1005 24
1200UTC 14.09.2026 48 15.6N 120.7W 1004 27
0000UTC 15.09.2026 60 15.1N 123.0W 1003 28
1200UTC 15.09.2026 72 14.0N 125.0W 1002 28
0000UTC 16.09.2026 84 13.6N 126.8W 1000 31
1200UTC 16.09.2026 96 13.6N 128.8W 1000 32
0000UTC 17.09.2026 108 13.6N 130.9W 998 33
1200UTC 17.09.2026 120 14.2N 133.1W 997 34
0000UTC 18.09.2026 132 15.4N 134.8W 992 39
1200UTC 18.09.2026 144 16.7N 135.9W 995 40
0000UTC 19.09.2026 156 17.5N 137.2W 996 41
1200UTC 19.09.2026 168 18.2N 137.8W 997 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 33.9N 18.0E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2026 72 35.3N 19.1E 1005 37
0000UTC 16.09.2026 84 35.2N 19.7E 1002 39
1200UTC 16.09.2026 96 34.9N 19.1E 1001 37
0000UTC 17.09.2026 108 33.8N 20.7E 1001 33
1200UTC 17.09.2026 120 33.3N 22.5E 1002 33
0000UTC 18.09.2026 132 32.6N 24.6E 1002 33
1200UTC 18.09.2026 144 31.8N 26.3E 1004 33
0000UTC 19.09.2026 156 30.8N 28.4E 1008 23
1200UTC 19.09.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 13.9N 115.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2026 120 14.0N 116.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 18.09.2026 132 14.7N 117.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 18.09.2026 144 14.3N 119.8W 1004 31
0000UTC 19.09.2026 156 13.8N 121.4W 1003 36
1200UTC 19.09.2026 168 13.6N 123.4W 1004 40


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121621


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 121600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 127.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 127.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.7N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.1N 131.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.4N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.6N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.7N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.6N 141.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.7N 146.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.9N 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
121600Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 128.4W.
12SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1096
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 121200Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122200Z, 130400Z, 131000Z AND 131600Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 121433
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
500 AM HST Sat Sep 12 2026

...NORBERT MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN EAST
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 128.3W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2015 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1760 MI...2835 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 128.3 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the west is forecast on Sunday, and Norbert should continue
in this direction during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only modest strengthening is expected through the weekend. By
early next week, a gradual weakening trend is expected to commence,
and Norbert should degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low
toward the end of next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 121434
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
500 AM HST SAT SEP 12 2026

THIS MORNING'S CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF AN
AMORPHOUS BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN BURSTING INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 1132
UTC AMSR3 COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE
SURFACE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
MASS. THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50
KT.

NORBERT'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR
285/9 KT, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AFTERWARD, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD STEER NORBERT IN A WESTWARD HEADING THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK. THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OF THE
MAJORITY OF THE SKILLED MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WHICH
HAS IN TURN PLACED THE FORECAST TRACK IN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE GDMI ENSEMBLE MEAN AND HCCA CONSENSUS AID.

ALTHOUGH NORBERT HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WARM OCEANIC SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS
AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE'S OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT, ONLY
THE HFIP HCCA AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND WEATHERNEXT 2 (GDMI) SHOW
SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE SHORT TERM. THROUGH THE REMAINING
FORECAST PERIOD, BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF
THE MODELS, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND NORBERT SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW EARLY THURSDAY
(DAY 4). THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND THE 24 HOURS.

NORBERT'S 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE NORTH
SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 0842 UTC OSCAT-3 SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 17.3N 128.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 17.7N 129.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 18.4N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.6N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 18.7N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.6N 141.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 17.7N 146.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z 15.9N 151.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 121432
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 128.3W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 25SE 25SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 30SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 128.3W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.7N 129.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.4N 133.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.6N 136.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.7N 138.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N 141.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 15.9N 151.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 128.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 121000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 127.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 127.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.4N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.8N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.1N 132.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.4N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.4N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.3N 139.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.4N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 15.6N 148.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121000Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 127.6W.
12SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1084
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120600Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 120849
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 11 2026

...NORBERT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 127.4W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1820 MI...2930 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 127.4 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Norbert is forecast to approach hurricane intensity by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 120849
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 11 2026

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER WELL-ESTABLISHED CURVED
BAND HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, LIKELY DUE TO
SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. A 0442 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS
INDICATED PEAK WINDS JUST ABOVE 40 KT WITHIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB IS T3.0/45 KT, WITH OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGING
FROM 45 TO 50 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO A GENEROUS 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/8 KT. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS
NORBERT CONTINUING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS THEN FORECAST DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE IMPROVED AGREEMENT
AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE, THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE
RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THE
WEEKEND REMAINS LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING
OVER THE WEEKEND, AND NORBERT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH HURRICANE
INTENSITY BY 24 TO 36 H. THEREAFTER, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, LIKELY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND WEAKENING
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF BROADLY SUPPORT THIS AND DEPICT NORBERT STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT REMAINS ABOVE
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN TRENDS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 17.1N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 17.4N 128.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 17.8N 130.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 18.1N 132.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 18.4N 134.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 18.4N 137.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 18.3N 139.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 17.4N 144.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 15.6N 148.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 120849
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.4W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.4N 128.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 130.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 132.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.4N 134.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 137.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.3N 139.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 144.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 15.6N 148.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 127.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 17.1N 126.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 126.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 17.4N 127.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.8N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.2N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.5N 133.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.7N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.6N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 18.0N 141.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.3N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120400Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 126.7W.
12SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1055
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 120000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 120249
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
500 PM HST FRI SEP 11 2026

...NORBERT HOLDING STEADY ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 126.6W
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1870 MI...3015 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.6 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
NORBERT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 120250
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
500 PM HST FRI SEP 11 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE FROM THE
NORTH, ALTHOUGH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE BAND HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB MAINTAINS T3.5/55 KT, WHICH HARMONIZES
WELL WITH THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGING
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA AND ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN
THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/10 KT. THIS GENERAL
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
POSITIONED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER, CONFIDENCE ON NORBERT'S
GENERAL MOTION IS REDUCED AS TRACK MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY, AS
THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PLAYS A VITAL ROLE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD, CAUSING NORBERT TO GENERALLY PREVAIL WESTWARD,
WHILE REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF SHOWCASES THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD, STEERING NORBERT MORE SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CONSENSUS AIDS
SIT SNUG IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
SIDES LARGELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH LIES NEAR THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING,
AND NORBERT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 H.
THEREAFTER, NORBERT'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT, SHUFFLING 5 TO 10 KT DIFFERENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THIS WILL DEPEND ULTIMATELY ON THE TRACK, AS DISCUSSED
ABOVE. A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK, MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS, WOULD FIND
NORBERT IN A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WHERE INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR WOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY. CONVERSELY, THE MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF, WOULD BRING NORBERT INTO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALLOWING
NORBERT TO POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN. GIVEN THE COMPETING SCENARIOS
THEREAFTER, LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST, WITH SOME WEAKENING STILL INDICATED EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS GENERALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 17.2N 126.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 17.4N 127.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 17.8N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 18.2N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 18.5N 133.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 18.7N 135.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 18.6N 137.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 18.0N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 16.3N 146.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 120249
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 126.6W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 126.6W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 127.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.8N 129.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.2N 131.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.5N 133.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.7N 135.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.6N 137.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 18.0N 141.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 16.3N 146.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 126.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 125.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 125.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.9N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.3N 129.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.7N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.1N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.3N 134.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.4N 136.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.2N 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.7N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112200Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 125.9W.
11SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1056
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 112033
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 11 2026

NORBERT'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE DEFINED BY A SHIELD OF DEEP
CONVECTION, WITH AN OUTFLOW BAND EVIDENT ACROSS ITS NORTHERN
QUADRANTS. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS
T3.5/55 KT, AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE
BETWEEN 50 AND 61 KT. WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK ESTIMATES
SUGGESTING A RELATIVELY STEADY TREND, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/12 KT. NORBERT IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BEGINS
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEKEND, AFTER WHICH THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
RIDGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS SHOWS THE RIDGE SHIFTING
EASTWARD, ALLOWING NORBERT TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT. CONVERSELY, THE ECMWF DEPICTS THE RIDGE BUILDING
SOUTHWARD, STEERING NORBERT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, NEITHER
SCENARIO IS STRONGLY FAVORED AT THIS TIME, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTWARD SOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN
AGREEMENT WITH HIGHLY-SKILLED AIDS, HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND.
OVERALL, THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST RESULTS IN LOWER-THAN-NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SHOULD NORBERT TAKE A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, IT WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT
MOVES INTO A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER SSTS.
CONVERSELY, A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, AS SUGGESTED BY SOME GUIDANCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WOULD BRING NORBERT INTO A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
OVER WARMER WATERS THAT WOULD FAVOR STEADY STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THAT
RELIABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY FAVORS THE SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING
INTO THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAKENING DURING
NORBERT'S WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE HCCA AND LIES GENERALLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS
IVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 16.8N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 16.9N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.3N 129.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 18.1N 132.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 134.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 18.4N 136.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 18.2N 141.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 16.7N 145.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 112032
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 11 2026

...NORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 125.7W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1935 MI...3115 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 125.7 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and is expected to
turn toward the west-northwest over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Norbert could become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 112032
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.7W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 60SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.7W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 125.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.9N 127.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.3N 129.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 132.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.3N 134.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 136.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.2N 141.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.7N 145.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 125.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 111622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 124.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2026 0 16.1N 124.5W 1002 33
0000UTC 12.09.2026 12 16.0N 126.8W 1002 30
1200UTC 12.09.2026 24 16.6N 128.8W 1001 29
0000UTC 13.09.2026 36 17.0N 130.7W 1001 32
1200UTC 13.09.2026 48 17.5N 132.6W 1001 35
0000UTC 14.09.2026 60 17.9N 134.3W 1001 35
1200UTC 14.09.2026 72 18.4N 136.4W 1002 34
0000UTC 15.09.2026 84 18.4N 139.0W 1002 33
1200UTC 15.09.2026 96 18.6N 141.1W 1004 29
0000UTC 16.09.2026 108 18.4N 143.4W 1005 30
1200UTC 16.09.2026 120 18.1N 146.4W 1007 30
0000UTC 17.09.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 29.3N 172.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2026 12 30.5N 172.3W 1004 37
1200UTC 12.09.2026 24 33.4N 173.1W 997 41
0000UTC 13.09.2026 36 35.0N 177.3W 999 33
1200UTC 13.09.2026 48 32.7N 179.9E 1003 30
0000UTC 14.09.2026 60 30.5N 179.8E 1007 24
1200UTC 14.09.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 16.4N 116.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2026 48 16.1N 117.3W 1006 25
0000UTC 14.09.2026 60 15.5N 118.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 14.09.2026 72 15.3N 120.2W 1004 28
0000UTC 15.09.2026 84 15.0N 122.8W 1003 29
1200UTC 15.09.2026 96 14.2N 125.1W 1002 29
0000UTC 16.09.2026 108 13.8N 127.2W 1001 29
1200UTC 16.09.2026 120 13.6N 129.2W 1001 32
0000UTC 17.09.2026 132 13.7N 131.6W 999 33
1200UTC 17.09.2026 144 14.1N 134.0W 997 37
0000UTC 18.09.2026 156 14.7N 135.7W 993 38
1200UTC 18.09.2026 168 15.5N 136.7W 993 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 32.3N 178.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2026 60 32.3N 178.0W 999 30
1200UTC 14.09.2026 72 31.4N 179.0W 1003 25
0000UTC 15.09.2026 84 30.6N 178.5W 1003 25
1200UTC 15.09.2026 96 30.5N 178.2W 1003 35
0000UTC 16.09.2026 108 31.3N 179.6W 1005 25
1200UTC 16.09.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 34.5N 13.5E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2026 84 34.1N 14.1E 1010 30
1200UTC 15.09.2026 96 35.3N 16.5E 1003 43
0000UTC 16.09.2026 108 35.8N 16.7E 998 51
1200UTC 16.09.2026 120 35.4N 15.6E 993 46
0000UTC 17.09.2026 132 35.0N 17.3E 992 41
1200UTC 17.09.2026 144 35.1N 19.7E 989 51
0000UTC 18.09.2026 156 35.0N 22.5E 986 60
1200UTC 18.09.2026 168 35.2N 26.1E 991 48

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.6N 111.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2026 132 12.9N 113.0W 1005 25
1200UTC 17.09.2026 144 13.1N 115.0W 1005 23
0000UTC 18.09.2026 156 13.5N 117.1W 1005 28
1200UTC 18.09.2026 168 12.9N 118.7W 1005 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 27.0N 58.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2026 168 26.6N 58.1W 1014 19


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111622


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 124.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 124.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.7N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 17.0N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.5N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 18.0N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.2N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.4N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 18.2N 140.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.9N 144.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 124.8W. 11SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 14E
(NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1038 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111200Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND
121600Z.
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 111445
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
500 AM HST FRI SEP 11 2026

NORBERT CONTINUES TO BE DEFINED BY A SHIELD OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
STORM'S ORGANIZATION APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING AS WELL, WITH GPM
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 1030 UTC SUGGESTING THAT NORBERT'S
CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
CONVECTION, RATHER THAN BEING DISPLACED TO THE WEST AS IT WAS LAST
ADVISORY. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM TAFB RATED
NORBERT AT 3.5/3.5, OR AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS ESTIMATED NORBERT TO BE BETWEEN 52-61 KT.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS, NORBERT'S INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/12 KT. NORBERT'S WESTWARD
MOTION CONTINUES TO BE GUIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC, JUST TO THE STORM'S NORTH.
TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND, DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEAKENING
THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY, BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN. MODELS ARE
SPLIT IN DEPICTING THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS MORE SOUTHWARD
TURN, HINDERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEYOND 72 H. THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, WITH ANY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE REFLECTING A BLEND OF GDMI AND HCCA.

SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORBERT WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT DRIER AIR MOVING DOWN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC
HIGH AND BEING INGESTED INTO NORBERT'S WEST FLANK EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. THE OVERALL TREND ACROSS
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS TO FAVOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE INTRODUCING GRADUAL WEAKENING STARTING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY REFLECTS THIS, BUT
LIES ON THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.6N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 16.7N 126.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.0N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.5N 130.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 18.0N 132.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 18.2N 134.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 18.4N 136.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 18.2N 140.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 16.9N 144.9W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 111444
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
500 AM HST Fri Sep 11 2026

...NORBERT GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 124.7W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2005 MI...3225 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 124.7 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Norbert could become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 111443
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 30SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.7N 126.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.0N 128.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.5N 130.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.0N 132.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.2N 134.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.4N 136.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N 140.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 16.9N 144.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 124.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 111000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 122.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 122.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.7N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 17.0N 127.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.3N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.9N 131.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.2N 133.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.4N 135.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.4N 139.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 17.4N 143.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 123.5W. 11SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 14E
(NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1013 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO,
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND
121000Z.//
NNNN


0000916700
00001


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 110857
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1100 PM HST THU SEP 10 2026

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND NORBERT
TONIGHT, WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES BELOW -80 C OBSERVED WITHIN THE
CDO. HOWEVER, THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO CONTEND WITH MODERATE
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR, WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED THIS
EVENING, RANGING FROM 45 TO 59 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND THE HIGHER INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NORBERT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 13 KT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, AS THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE NORBERT'S LONGER-TERM TRACK. A STRONGER RIDGE WOULD FAVOR
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION, WHILE A WEAKER RIDGE
WOULD ALLOW NORBERT TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR A LONGER PERIOD.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NORBERT TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST.

DECREASING WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE CYCLONE
COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 72 H, A WIDE
SPREAD DEVELOPS IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, IN PART BECAUSE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK WILL INFLUENCE NORBERT'S INTENSITY. A FARTHER SOUTH
TRACK WOULD ALLOW FOR NORBERT TO STAY OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS,
SUPPORTING A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND LIES NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, CLOSE
TO THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL
SPREAD, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEYOND 72 H.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 16.6N 123.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 17.3N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 17.9N 131.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 18.2N 133.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 18.4N 135.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 18.4N 139.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 17.4N 143.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 110843
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1100 PM HST THU SEP 10 2026

...NORBERT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 123.3W
ABOUT 975 MI...1565 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2095 MI...3370 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.3 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NORBERT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 110843
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1100 PM HST THU SEP 10 2026

CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND NORBERT
TONIGHT, WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES BELOW -80 C OBSERVED WITHIN THE
CDO. HOWEVER, THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO CONTEND WITH MODERATE
WESTERLY WIND SHEAR, WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED THIS
EVENING, RANGING FROM 45 TO 59 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND THE HIGHER INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

NORBERT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 13 KT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, AS THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY
DETERMINE NORBERT'S LONGER-TERM TRACK. A STRONGER RIDGE WOULD FAVOR
A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION, WHILE A WEAKER RIDGE
WOULD ALLOW NORBERT TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR A LONGER PERIOD.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NORBERT TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST.

DECREASING WIND SHEAR AND SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE CYCLONE
COULD LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 72 H, A WIDE
SPREAD DEVELOPS IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, IN PART BECAUSE THE
EVENTUAL TRACK WILL INFLUENCE NORBERT'S INTENSITY. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND LIES NEAR THE UPPER END OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, CLOSE TO THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEYOND 72 H.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 16.6N 123.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 17.3N 129.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 17.9N 131.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 18.2N 133.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 18.4N 135.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 18.4N 139.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 17.4N 143.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 110842
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 123.3W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 123.3W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.3N 129.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.9N 131.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.2N 133.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.4N 135.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 18.4N 139.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 17.4N 143.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 123.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 121.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 121.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.5N 123.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 16.6N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.9N 128.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.4N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.9N 131.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.1N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.3N 137.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.5N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 122.1W. 11SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 14E
(NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1004 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 110000Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 110238
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
500 PM HST Thu Sep 10 2026

...NORBERT GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 121.9W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 121.9 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday, with a turn to the
west-northwest likely on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Norbert could
become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 110239
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
500 PM HST THU SEP 10 2026

NORBERT CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHEAR PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY,
WITH THE CENTER LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AND GROWING
AREA OF CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER THAN
THE LAST ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 45
KT. ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WHILE NORBERT EXPERIENCES LIGHT-TO-MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER WARM WATERS, THOUGH CLOSE TO SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. THUS,
NORBERT WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME CHALLENGES DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE,
PROBABLY PREVENTING ANY RAPID CHANGES IN THE NEAR-TERM. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN THE LAST CYCLE OVERALL, AND THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE
LONG-RANGE INTENSITY IS A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE LARGE LATITUDINAL
SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF
INCREASING SHEAR.

THE TROPICAL STORM'S MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD AT 12 KT. A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD
IN TANDEM WITH NORBERT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, KEEPING THE
CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A SOUTH-OF-WEST
TRACK IS POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON THE FUTURE ORIENTATION
OF THE RIDGE AND THE POSITION OF NORBERT. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
SHOWING THIS WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION FOR A FEW RUNS NOW, AND WITH THE
GOOGLE DEEPMIND NOW IN CLOSER AGREEMENT, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AT LONG RANGE. OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 16.4N 121.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 16.5N 123.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 16.6N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 16.9N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 17.4N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 17.9N 131.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.1N 133.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 18.3N 137.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 110237
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 121.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 121.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 123.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.6N 126.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.9N 128.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.4N 129.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.9N 131.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.1N 133.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 18.3N 137.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 121.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 16.5N 119.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 119.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.5N 124.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.6N 127.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.0N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.6N 130.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.0N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.4N 136.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.3N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 120.8W. 10SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 14E
(NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 984 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 101800Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND
112200Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 102046
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
200 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2026

NORBERT'S STRUCTURE CAN BE DESCRIBED AS A SHEAR PATTERN, WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA,
WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR A WHILE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE
TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS STILL 35 KT, BUT THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES
HAVE CREEPED UP SLIGHTLY, NOW IN THE 37-42 KT RANGE. BASED ON
THOSE ESTIMATES, AND THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 270/12 KT. A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORBERT SHOULD KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A DIRECTION BETWEEN WESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST HFIP CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MODEL (HCCA).

THE SHEARED STRUCTURE OF NORBERT AND THE PROXIMITY OF DRIER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ONLY MODEST NEAR-TERM
STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS
MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT, WHICH
ARE SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING AND KEEPS
NORBERT AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN, HCCA, AND COAMPS-TC MODELS PEAK
NORBERT AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS BEFORE BRINGING IT
BACK DOWN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY DAY 4 WITH CONTINUED
WEAKENING INTO DAY 5. THE NEW NHC FORECAST BRINGS NORBERT UP TO 65
KT BY DAY 3, FOLLOWING THE ABOVE MODELS, AND IS HIGHER THAN ALL OF
THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW
AVERAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 16.5N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 16.5N 122.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 16.5N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 16.6N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 17.0N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 17.6N 130.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 18.0N 132.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 18.4N 136.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 18.3N 139.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 102045
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...NORBERT STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 120.5W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 120.5 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next few
days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 102045
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.5W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.5W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 119.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.5N 124.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.6N 127.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.0N 129.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.6N 130.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.0N 132.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 18.4N 136.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 139.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 120.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 101439
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Norbert Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026

...NORBERT FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 119.3W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 119.3 West. Norbert is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 101440
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2026

AN AMSR-3 MICROWAVE PASS OVER NORBERT AND GOES-WEST INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NORBERT IS
UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN SIDE OF MAIN BURST OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORBERT'S DEVELOPING CORE. MODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS
HAVING A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON THE CYCLONE BY PUSHING THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THAT
THE CENTER IS UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION, GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
SEEMS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB IS T2.5/35 KT, AND RECENT OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE FROM 35-40 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD, OR 275/12 KT. A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORBERT SHOULD KEEP
THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A DIRECTION BETWEEN WESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND LIES CLOSE TO THE HCCA.

THE SHEARED STRUCTURE OF NORBERT AND THE PROXIMITY OF DRIER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ONLY MODEST NEAR-TERM
STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER WATERS NEAR 28C. DESPITE THESE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS IN THE
GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO
A LARGE SPREAD IN SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE HAS A SPREAD AT DAY 4 THAT
RANGES FROM 30 TO 120 KT. THE HAFS-A KEEPS IT A TROPICAL STORM
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HAFS-B BRIEFLY MAKES IT A CATEGORY
1 HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 60 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING THE SYSTEM
BACK TO A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM BY DAY 4-5. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FASTER
INTENSIFICATION IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS, BUT THEN A SLOWER RATE OF
STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST STILL LIES ON
THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR NORBERT TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 16.5N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 16.5N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 16.5N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 16.6N 125.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 17.0N 127.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 17.4N 129.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 18.4N 134.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 18.3N 138.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 101438
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 119.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 119.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 118.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.5N 121.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 123.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.6N 125.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.0N 127.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.4N 129.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 18.4N 134.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.3N 138.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 119.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14E (NORBERT) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 16.4N 117.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 117.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.6N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.7N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.7N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.9N 126.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 17.3N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.8N 130.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.5N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 18.5N 137.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 118.2W. 10SEP26. TROPICAL STORM 14E
(NORBERT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 978 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 100600Z IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND
111000Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100842
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2026

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TONIGHT. EARLIER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WAS FULLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM,
RECENT PROXY-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CENTER IS LIKELY
CLOSER TO OR JUST UNDERNEATH THE EDGE OF THE COLD OVERCAST. RECENT
AIDT AND D-PRINT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE 35-39 KT RANGE,
AND TAFB PROVIDED ANOTHER 2.5/35-KT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION. BASED ON
THESE DEVELOPMENTS, THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM NORBERT
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

NORBERT IS MOVING WESTWARD (280/11 KT) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS FEATURE
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WHICH SHOULD KEEP NORBERT ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE
LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS PREDICTION AT DAYS 3-5, GENERALLY FALLING BETWEEN HCCA AND
GOOGLE DEEPMIND AT THOSE TIMES. OTHERWISE, THERE WERE NO NOTABLE
TRACK CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

THE SHEARED STRUCTURE OF NORBERT AND THE PROXIMITY OF DRIER AIR TO
THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS THAT ONLY MODEST NEAR-TERM
STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER 28-29C WATERS. DESPITE THESE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS IN THE
GUIDANCE REGARDING HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR. OVERALL, THE
INTENSITY MODELS TRENDED WEAKER THIS CYCLE, AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. HOWEVER, THE NHC FORECAST STILL LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR NORBERT TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 16.4N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 16.6N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 16.7N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 16.7N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 16.9N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 17.3N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 17.8N 130.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 18.5N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 18.5N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100841
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NORBERT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM NORBERT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 117.9W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST. NORBERT IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100841
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 117.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 117.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 117.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.6N 119.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.7N 122.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.7N 124.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.9N 126.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.3N 128.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.8N 130.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 133.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 18.5N 137.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 117.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 100233
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2026

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 116.6W
ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.6
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH, AND A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 100233
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2026

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER
LOCATION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80 DEG C OR COLDER. THESE HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITH LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE BANDING AT THIS TIME. THERE IS SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD MASS. GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT
BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR NOW. THIS IS JUST A LITTLE BELOW THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE.

THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED IN THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMUM ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION, AND IS A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
SHOULD PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND BUILDS A
LITTLE. THIS COULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT AROUND DAY
5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST CORRECTED CONSENSUS, HCCA,
GUIDANCE.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A REASONABLY CONDUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT
FOR INTENSIFICATION IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT WESTERLY
SHEAR COULD BE AN IMPEDIMENT TO SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING. ALSO,
SOME ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN EMANATING FROM THE CYCLONE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH IS USUALLY INDICATIVE OF THE PRESENCE OF
SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER, THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL
PREDICTIONS AND IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 16.4N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 16.7N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 16.8N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 16.8N 123.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 16.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 17.0N 128.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 17.4N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 18.1N 136.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 100233
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.7N 118.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.8N 121.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 10SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.8N 123.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.7N 126.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.0N 128.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.4N 129.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 18.1N 136.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 116.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 092039
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INVEST
EP96) HAS DEVELOPED A MORE ORGANIZED CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION EAST OF ITS CENTER. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM
AROUND 1700 UTC REVEALED A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH A MAX WIND OF AROUND 30 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM
TAFB RATED THIS SYSTEM AT 2.5/2.5, OR AN INTENSITY AT AROUND 35 KT.
GIVEN THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E, WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM WAS ESTIMATED AT 285/8 KT, BUT
THIS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY RECENTLY FORMED. GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION,
SO A PRIMARILY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT
WILL SHIFT THE TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, BEFORE THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF
THE HCCA AND GDMI, WHICH IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICTS LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AS WELL AS AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SSTS, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AND INTO A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS A SLOWER STRENGTHENING TREND
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS, GIVEN THAT SCATTEROMETRY DATA STILL
DEPICTS A DEPRESSION WITH A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTER. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, HOWEVER, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE NHC
PREDICTION LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.7N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 092038
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 115.2W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and a generally westward motion is expected over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and
the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 092038
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 092032
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2026

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (INVEST
EP96) HAS DEVELOPED A MORE ORGANIZED CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION EAST OF ITS CENTER. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM
AROUND 1700 UTC REVEALED A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT CLOSED CIRCULATION
WITH A MAX WIND OF AROUND 30 KT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS FROM
TAFB RATED THIS SYSTEM AT 2.5/2.5, OR AN INTENSITY AT AROUND 35 KT.
GIVEN THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E, WITH AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM WAS ESTIMATED AT 285/8 KT, BUT
THIS IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY RECENTLY FORMED. GLOBAL
MODELS DEPICT MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION,
SO A PRIMARILY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT
WILL SHIFT THE TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, BEFORE THE
RIDGE AMPLIFIES ONCE AGAIN AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF
THE HCCA AND GDMI, WHICH IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICTS LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AS WELL AS AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SSTS, WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY AND INTO A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS A SLOWER STRENGTHENING TREND
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS, GIVEN THAT SCATTEROMETRY DATA STILL
DEPICTS A DEPRESSION WITH A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTER. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, HOWEVER, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE NHC
PREDICTION LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.7N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 092031
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 09 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 115.2W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and a generally westward motion is expected over the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and
the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 092031
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142026
2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.9N 117.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.8N 119.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.7N 122.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.6N 124.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.9N 126.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.2N 127.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.4N 130.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.9N 133.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI=