Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for NOLO-26
in United States

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2628 NOLO (2628) 990 HPA
AT 27.1N 151.4E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 28.6N 149.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 29.6N 147.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 080900
WARNING 080900.
WARNING VALID 090900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2628 NOLO (2628) 985 HPA
AT 27.4N 152.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 28.3N 150.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 29.2N 148.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 080300
WARNING 080300.
WARNING VALID 090300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2628 NOLO (2628) 985 HPA
AT 27.4N 154.7E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 21
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 28.1N 151.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 28.9N 149.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 072100
WARNING 072100.
WARNING VALID 082100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2628 NOLO (2628) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 985
HPA
AT 26.7N 156.2E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 27.6N 153.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 28.6N 150.6E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) 980 HPA
AT 25.9N 159.1E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 26.9N 154.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 27.9N 151.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 070900
WARNING 070900.
WARNING VALID 080900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) 975 HPA
AT 25.3N 161.3E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 18 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 26.3N 157.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 27.6N 153.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 070300
WARNING 070300.
WARNING VALID 080300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) 975 HPA
AT 25.2N 163.3E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 26.2N 158.6E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 27.1N 154.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 062100
WARNING 062100.
WARNING VALID 072100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) 970 HPA
AT 25.5N 165.2E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 24 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 26.1N 160.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 26.9N 156.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 061500
WARNING 061500.
WARNING VALID 071500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) 960 HPA
AT 25.3N 167.8E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 22 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 25.9N 163.0E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 26.6N 158.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 060900
WARNING 060900.
WARNING VALID 070900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) 965 HPA
AT 25.4N 170.3E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 25.6N 165.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 26.2N 160.8E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060900 PAA
WARNING ATCG MIL 15E NEP 261006074836
2026100606 15E NOLO 063 03 265 17 SATL 025
T000 256N 1711E 105 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 257N 1668E 100 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 262N 1622E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 270N 1583E 070 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 279N 1550E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T060 290N 1528E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 300N 1515E 070 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 318N 1509E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 332N 1512E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 15E (NOLO) WARNING NR 063
1. TYPHOON 15E (NOLO) WARNING NR 063
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 25.6N 171.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 171.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 25.7N 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 26.2N 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 27.0N 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 27.9N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 29.0N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 30.0N 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 31.8N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 33.2N 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 170.0E.
06OCT26. TYPHOON 15E (NOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 448 NM
NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 060600Z IS 956 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1526091012 105N1085W 15
1526091018 111N1095W 15
1526091100 116N1105W 15
1526091106 119N1114W 20
1526091112 123N1122W 20
1526091118 129N1131W 20
1526091200 137N1137W 25
1526091206 148N1138W 30
1526091212 161N1138W 30
1526091218 168N1143W 25
1526091300 172N1149W 25
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1526091400 171N1179W 30
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1526091500 165N1211W 30
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1526092012 146N1431W 25
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1526092500 149N1560W 60
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1526092506 152N1558W 70
1526092512 157N1555W 80
1526092512 157N1555W 80
1526092512 157N1555W 80
1526092518 163N1554W 90
1526092518 163N1554W 90
1526092518 163N1554W 90
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1526092606 169N1552W 90
1526092606 169N1552W 90
1526092606 169N1552W 90
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1526092612 169N1553W 85
1526092612 169N1553W 85
1526092618 168N1557W 85
1526092618 168N1557W 85
1526092618 168N1557W 85
1526092700 167N1561W 80
1526092700 167N1561W 80
1526092700 167N1561W 80
1526092706 166N1569W 85
1526092706 166N1569W 85
1526092706 166N1569W 85
1526092712 162N1578W 85
1526092712 162N1578W 85
1526092712 162N1578W 85
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1526092718 161N1588W 100
1526092718 161N1588W 100
1526092800 162N1598W 115
1526092800 162N1598W 115
1526092800 162N1598W 115
1526092806 164N1608W 135
1526092806 164N1608W 135
1526092806 164N1608W 135
1526092812 168N1619W 135
1526092812 168N1619W 135
1526092812 168N1619W 135
1526092818 173N1627W 130
1526092818 173N1627W 130
1526092818 173N1627W 130
1526092900 183N1635W 125
1526092900 183N1635W 125
1526092900 183N1635W 125
1526092906 195N1642W 100
1526092906 195N1642W 100
1526092906 195N1642W 100
1526092912 201N1642W 100
1526092912 201N1642W 100
1526092912 201N1642W 100
1526092918 210N1642W 90
1526092918 210N1642W 90
1526092918 210N1642W 90
1526093000 218N1642W 80
1526093000 218N1642W 80
1526093000 218N1642W 80
1526093006 224N1642W 65
1526093006 224N1642W 65
1526093006 224N1642W 65
1526093012 222N1647W 55
1526093012 222N1647W 55
1526093018 219N1647W 50
1526093018 219N1647W 50
1526100100 216N1647W 50
1526100100 216N1647W 50
1526100106 217N1650W 50
1526100106 217N1650W 50
1526100112 218N1652W 50
1526100112 218N1652W 50
1526100118 220N1654W 50
1526100118 220N1654W 50
1526100200 228N1659W 50
1526100200 228N1659W 50
1526100206 230N1664W 55
1526100206 230N1664W 55
1526100212 232N1669W 60
1526100212 232N1669W 60
1526100218 233N1674W 65
1526100218 233N1674W 65
1526100218 233N1674W 65
1526100300 234N1681W 70
1526100300 234N1681W 70
1526100300 234N1681W 70
1526100306 233N1690W 90
1526100306 233N1690W 90
1526100306 233N1690W 90
1526100312 232N1705W 95
1526100312 232N1705W 95
1526100312 232N1705W 95
1526100318 232N1722W 105
1526100318 232N1722W 105
1526100318 232N1722W 105
1526100400 233N1742W 100
1526100400 233N1742W 100
1526100400 233N1742W 100
1526100406 235N1759W 95
1526100406 235N1759W 95
1526100406 235N1759W 95
1526100412 236N1778W 95
1526100412 236N1778W 95
1526100412 236N1778W 95
1526100418 240N1792W 100
1526100418 240N1792W 100
1526100418 240N1792W 100
1526100500 247N1793E 105
1526100500 247N1793E 105
1526100500 247N1793E 105
1526100506 253N1777E 105
1526100506 253N1777E 105
1526100506 253N1777E 105
1526100512 256N1762E 105
1526100512 256N1762E 105
1526100512 256N1762E 105
1526100518 258N1747E 105


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 060300
WARNING 060300.
WARNING VALID 070300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) 965 HPA
AT 25.8N 172.1E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 25.5N 167.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 25.9N 162.9E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 052100
WARNING 052100.
WARNING VALID 062100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) 960 HPA
AT 25.7N 173.9E SEA AROUND OF WAKE MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 25.6N 170.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 25.6N 165.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 051500
WARNING 051500.
WARNING VALID 061500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) 955 HPA
AT 25.7N 175.5E MIDWAYS MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 25.7N 172.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 25.6N 168.2E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 050900
WARNING 050900.
WARNING VALID 060900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) 950 HPA
AT 25.5N 177.0E MIDWAYS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 25.7N 174.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 25.6N 170.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 050907
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Nolo (15E) Advisory Number 59
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP152026
707 PM ChST Mon Oct 5 2026

...TYPHOON NOLO MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...25.4N 176.9E

About 780 miles northeast of Wake
About 2240 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...120 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...295 degrees at 18 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Typhoon Nolo was
located near Latitude 25.4 degrees North and Longitude
176.9 degrees East. Nolo is moving west-northwest at 18 mph. It
is expected to make a slight turn toward the west with little
change in forward speed through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 120 mph. Nolo is forecast to
maintain this intensity through Tuesday.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to
80 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the
center up to 160 miles to the north and up to 125 miles to the
south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This will be the last advisory issued by the National Weather
Service on Nolo.

$$

Bowsher


Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 050300
WARNING 050300.
WARNING VALID 060300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) 950 HPA
AT 25.0N 178.6E MIDWAYS MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 25.6N 175.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 25.6N 172.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 PGUM 050312
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
Typhoon Nolo (15E) Advisory Number 58
National Weather Service Tiyan GU EP152026
112 PM ChST Mon Oct 5 2026

...TYPHOON NOLO HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST PACIFIC EAST-NORTHEAST OF
WAKE ISLAND...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
None.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...25.0N 178.6E

About 860 miles east-northeast of Wake Island
About 2335 miles east-northeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...120 mph
Present movement...west-northwest...300 degrees at 18 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...the center of Typhoon Nolo was located
near Latitude 25.0 degrees North and Longitude 178.6 degrees East.
Nolo is moving west-northwest at 18 mph. It is expected to make a
slight turn toward the west with little change in forward speed
through Tuesday, hugging the outer edge of NWS Guam's Area of
Responsibility.

Maximum sustained winds are 120 mph. Nolo is forecast to maintain
this intensity through tonight as it continues into the western
Pacific.

Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 80 miles.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the center up to 160
miles to the north and up to 125 miles to the south.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
The next scheduled advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tiyan, Guam at 800 PM ChST this evening.

$$

Montvila


Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 050000
WARNING 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2628 NOLO (2628) FORMER HURRICANE 960 HPA
AT 24.8N 179.4E MIDWAYS MOVING WEST 16 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 25.4N 176.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 25.5N 173.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 25.6N 164.5E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 26.9N 156.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 29.1N 150.9E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 31.4N 148.7E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 042038
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 57
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Oct 04 2026

Recent visible and infrared imagery show that outer rainbands have
developed over the western semicircle, and Nolo is no longer
exhibiting annular appearance. Shortly after the previous advisory,
infrared imagery showed warming of the cloud tops and a thinning of
the inner core convection over the southwestern quadrant. The eye
has become more cloud filled and not as warm with an eye temperature
around 7 C. A recent GMI microwave pass shows that the inner core is
vertically aligned and perhaps the recent satellite degradation
could just be a brief lull. Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates range from 95 to 102 kt. Based on a blend of
these data, the initial intensity is maintained at 100 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/15 kt. Nolo
is expected to continue being steered generally westward by a strong
subtropical ridge located to its north. Over the next several days,
the hurricane should maintain a similar or slightly slower forward
speed along this heading. By the end of the forecast period, Nolo is
forecast to reach the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge,
which should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn
west-northwestward to northwestward. The latest NHC track forecast
is very similar to the previous and lies near the HCCA and GDMI
track aids.

Nolo is currently situated within a favorable environment, with warm
sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear, some slight
strengthening is possible over the next 18 to 24 hours. Between 24
and 36 hours, the cyclone is forecast to move into an area of
increasing vertical wind shear and a much drier mid-level airmass.
The combination of strong shear and dry air entrainment will induce
a steady weakening trend through the middle-to-end of the week. The
NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance suite
through the short term, leaning closest to the regional hurricane
models, before trending back toward the various consensus aids by
the end of the forecast period.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
this system. Future advisories will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan.
Advisories issued by RSMC Tokyo are found on the web at:

www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm

For U.S. interests, see advisories issued by the Joint Typhoon
Warning Center (JTWC) in Honolulu, Hawaii. Advisories issued by JTWC
can be found on the web at:

www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 24.2N 180.0E 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 24.8N 177.7E 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 25.2N 174.6E 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 25.1N 170.9E 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 25.2N 166.4E 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 25.7N 162.3E 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 26.2N 158.2E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 27.8N 152.0E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 29.4N 149.7E 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 042036
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 180.0E AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 210SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 180.0E AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 179.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.8N 177.7E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.2N 174.6E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.1N 170.9E
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.2N 166.4E
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.7N 162.3E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.2N 158.2E
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 27.8N 152.0E
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 29.4N 149.7E
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 180.0E

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
TOKYO, JAPAN.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 041622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.10.2026

HURRICANE RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 113.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2026 0 20.2N 113.5W 969 61
0000UTC 05.10.2026 12 20.2N 114.6W 971 61
1200UTC 05.10.2026 24 20.4N 115.9W 974 59
0000UTC 06.10.2026 36 20.5N 117.7W 971 57
1200UTC 06.10.2026 48 20.4N 119.5W 973 56
0000UTC 07.10.2026 60 20.5N 121.1W 973 55
1200UTC 07.10.2026 72 20.9N 122.8W 979 50
0000UTC 08.10.2026 84 21.2N 124.5W 983 45
1200UTC 08.10.2026 96 21.7N 126.3W 987 44
0000UTC 09.10.2026 108 22.1N 128.0W 988 43
1200UTC 09.10.2026 120 22.3N 129.5W 992 42
0000UTC 10.10.2026 132 22.2N 130.2W 995 38
1200UTC 10.10.2026 144 21.7N 130.1W 996 37
0000UTC 11.10.2026 156 21.3N 129.0W 997 35
1200UTC 11.10.2026 168 20.7N 127.4W 999 33

HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 177.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.10.2026 0 23.5N 177.7W 962 84
0000UTC 05.10.2026 12 24.7N 179.3E 962 77
1200UTC 05.10.2026 24 25.5N 176.1E 971 82
0000UTC 06.10.2026 36 25.4N 172.9E 971 73
1200UTC 06.10.2026 48 24.9N 168.6E 985 62
0000UTC 07.10.2026 60 25.3N 163.7E 996 49
1200UTC 07.10.2026 72 25.4N 159.9E 998 45
0000UTC 08.10.2026 84 25.7N 155.9E 1000 38
1200UTC 08.10.2026 96 26.1N 152.2E 998 43
0000UTC 09.10.2026 108 26.1N 148.5E 1000 40
1200UTC 09.10.2026 120 25.8N 145.1E 1002 41
0000UTC 10.10.2026 132 25.4N 141.8E 1003 50
1200UTC 10.10.2026 144 24.8N 140.2E 1003 47
0000UTC 11.10.2026 156 25.6N 140.7E 1004 31
1200UTC 11.10.2026 168 27.5N 142.1E 1006 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 21.8N 92.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2026 84 22.1N 93.0W 1003 28
1200UTC 08.10.2026 96 23.3N 91.8W 1003 29
0000UTC 09.10.2026 108 23.0N 90.7W 1002 30
1200UTC 09.10.2026 120 24.8N 91.2W 1001 40
0000UTC 10.10.2026 132 26.2N 91.1W 997 44
1200UTC 10.10.2026 144 28.5N 90.3W 992 55
0000UTC 11.10.2026 156 31.3N 90.4W 994 30
1200UTC 11.10.2026 168 31.8N 90.3W 1006 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.4N 103.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2026 96 14.4N 103.5W 1002 27
0000UTC 09.10.2026 108 15.4N 104.8W 1000 28
1200UTC 09.10.2026 120 15.9N 105.2W 997 32
0000UTC 10.10.2026 132 16.6N 106.2W 994 37
1200UTC 10.10.2026 144 17.6N 106.7W 992 42
0000UTC 11.10.2026 156 18.9N 107.1W 992 44
1200UTC 11.10.2026 168 20.9N 106.7W 992 49


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041622


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 041439
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 56
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Oct 04 2026

Nolo appears to have completed an eyewall replacement cycle
overnight. The satellite presentation has steadily improved over the
past several hours, with the eyewall re-consolidating and a
symmetric ring of deep convection now completely wrapping around the
center. Over the past 6 hours, the eye has cleared drastically,
transitioning from a ragged appearance to a distinct, circular,
warming eye with temperatures near 15C. Objective satellite
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have begun to respond to this
improvement, and are in the 94-97 kt range. Based on the improved
satellite presentation and these objective estimates, the initial
intensity is raised to 100 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/16 kt. Nolo
is expected to continue on a generally westward heading for the next
several days, steered by a subtropical ridge located to the north of
the cyclone. On the current forecast track, the system will cross
the International Date Line into the western Pacific basin within
the next 12 hours. By the end of the period, Nolo is forecast to
reach the western periphery of the aforementioned ridge and begin to
slow down. Track forecast uncertainty increases at that time, as the
guidance diverges regarding exactly when and where the cyclone will
slow down and turn north in response to a mid-latitude trough
approaching from Japan. The latest NHC track forecast has been
shifted slightly southward, trending toward the HCCA and GDMI aids.

Nolo remains situated within a highly favorable environment for
strengthening during the next 24 hours, characterized by warm sea
surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Given the recent
structural improvements noted in satellite imagery, the official NHC
intensity forecast indicates further intensification and lies above
the intensity guidance in the short term. Between 24-36 h, the
cyclone is forecast to move into a region of increasing shear and
into a drier mid-level airmass. However, recent satellite imagery
indicates that Nolo is taking on annular characteristics. This
structural evolution should make the inner core more resilient to
the impending hostile conditions by limiting dry air entrainment,
likely resulting in a slower initial rate of weakening than would
otherwise be expected. Ultimately, the combination of strong shear
and very dry air will take its toll, causing the system to steadily
weaken beyond 48 hours. Given these structural and environmental
conditions, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the high side of
the guidance envelope. This prediction is closest to the hurricane
regional models, but still above those, before trending back toward
the consensus intensity aids by the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 23.8N 178.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 24.3N 178.9E 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 24.9N 175.8E 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 25.0N 172.4E 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 168.4E 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 25.3N 164.0E 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 25.9N 160.0E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 26.9N 153.1E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 28.6N 150.0E 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 041439
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SUN OCT 04 2026

...NOLO STRENGTHENS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE WITHIN 12 HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 178.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM WSW OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 178.5 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOLO SHOULD CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE LATER TODAY IN HAWAIIAN TIME.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND
BEGINS AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB (28.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS FROM MARO
REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 041438
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN OCT 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 178.5W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 210SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 178.5W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 177.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.3N 178.9E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.9N 175.8E
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.0N 172.4E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.0N 168.4E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.3N 164.0E
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 25.9N 160.0E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.9N 153.1E
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 28.6N 150.0E
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 178.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 040837
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 55
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sat Oct 03 2026

Nolo's inner-core continues to evolve this evening as its eyewall
replacement cycle (ERC) progresses. On geostationary satellite, the
small eye that was observed earlier today has largely decayed, with
the coldest cloud tops now organizing in a broader ring as a larger
ragged eye begins to clear out. Earlier, an AMSR3 microwave pass
over Nolo at 0043 UTC showed an inner eyewall fragment remained on
the 37 GHz channel, but a more recent 0549 UTC WSF-M pass showed the
outer eyewall solidifying with the inner eyewall no longer observed.
This evolution suggests the ERC will likely complete in the near
future. For now, the subjective and objective intensity estimates
have lowered some during Nolo's inner-core fluctuations, and the
initial intensity is set at 95 kt this advisory.

The hurricane continues to move quickly westward at an estimated
motion of 275 degrees at 16 kt. A large subtropical ridge is draped
to the north of Nolo and should continue to steer the tropical
cyclone quickly westward for the next 3-4 days. On the forecast
track, Nolo should cross the International Dateline during the day
on Sunday. At the end of the forecast period, Nolo will likely reach
the westward edge of the large-scale ridging, and some slowdown in
its forward motion is anticipated. However, by this point in the
forecast, Nolo's vertical depth could be more shallow. Substantial
across-track uncertainty in the guidance exists, related to if the
cyclone will begin to recurve northward or continue to maintain a
slower westward motion. The latest NHC track forecast is very
similar to the prior one, but just a little slower and further
northward in the 96-120 h period, following the trends in the
reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), Google DeepMind
ensemble mean (GDMI), and its newer version (WN3I).

Assuming the current ERC completes cleanly over the next 6-12 h,
Nolo is expected to start intensifying again while the tropical
cyclone remains over 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures, and very low
shear, currently diagnosed at 5 kt by UW-CIMSS. The NHC intensity
forecast continues to show a 115 kt peak, which is still below the
peak intensity reached in the raw output in both the 00 UTC HAFS-B
and HMON runs. After 48 h, a very amplified upper-level flow pattern
induced by recurving Typhoon Choi-Wan will lead to an abrupt
increase in northeasterly shear over Nolo. This ramp-up in shear
will likely advect very dry mid-level air into the cyclone's core.
Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows significant weakening
occurring between 48-72 h, when the brunt of the shear will affect
Nolo. By the latter half of the forecast period, this shear could
lessen somewhat, but it is possible Nolo will continue to struggle
as it remains embedded in a very dry mid-level air environment. The
NHC intensity forecast remains on the high side of the guidance over
the first 36-48 h, but falls back to the mean of the intensity aids
thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 23.6N 176.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 24.0N 179.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 24.8N 177.6E 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 25.3N 174.5E 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 25.4N 171.0E 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 25.5N 166.7E 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 26.1N 162.5E 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 28.0N 155.5E 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 30.0N 152.5E 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 040834
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SAT OCT 03 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES QUICKLY WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 176.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM WSW OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 176.7 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH (30 KM/H), AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NOLO SHOULD CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY HAWAIIAN TIME.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING AGAIN OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY ABRUPT WEAKENING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB (28.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS
FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 040833
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SUN OCT 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 176.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 176.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 175.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.0N 179.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.8N 177.6E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 55NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.3N 174.5E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.4N 171.0E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.5N 166.7E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.1N 162.5E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 28.0N 155.5E
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 30.0N 152.5E
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 176.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 040424

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.10.2026

HURRICANE RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 112.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2026 0 20.1N 112.6W 974 55
1200UTC 04.10.2026 12 20.5N 113.8W 977 52
0000UTC 05.10.2026 24 20.5N 114.9W 980 51
1200UTC 05.10.2026 36 20.6N 116.3W 977 51
0000UTC 06.10.2026 48 20.5N 118.0W 976 53
1200UTC 06.10.2026 60 20.5N 119.7W 977 52
0000UTC 07.10.2026 72 20.6N 121.2W 977 51
1200UTC 07.10.2026 84 20.9N 122.7W 982 48
0000UTC 08.10.2026 96 21.6N 124.6W 985 47
1200UTC 08.10.2026 108 22.0N 126.8W 989 43
0000UTC 09.10.2026 120 22.1N 129.0W 990 43
1200UTC 09.10.2026 132 21.7N 130.9W 994 43
0000UTC 10.10.2026 144 21.1N 132.6W 997 37
1200UTC 10.10.2026 156 20.3N 134.3W 998 39
0000UTC 11.10.2026 168 19.7N 135.3W 1000 34

HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 174.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2026 0 23.2N 174.2W 974 62
1200UTC 04.10.2026 12 23.5N 177.9W 970 76
0000UTC 05.10.2026 24 24.5N 179.0E 966 72
1200UTC 05.10.2026 36 25.2N 175.9E 969 82
0000UTC 06.10.2026 48 25.5N 172.5E 968 77
1200UTC 06.10.2026 60 25.3N 168.3E 973 75
0000UTC 07.10.2026 72 25.5N 164.0E 990 58
1200UTC 07.10.2026 84 26.0N 160.3E 997 44
0000UTC 08.10.2026 96 26.2N 156.8E 999 38
1200UTC 08.10.2026 108 26.6N 152.8E 999 40
0000UTC 09.10.2026 120 26.9N 149.3E 1000 39
1200UTC 09.10.2026 132 26.8N 146.4E 1001 43
0000UTC 10.10.2026 144 26.2N 143.4E 1003 61
1200UTC 10.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 34.2N 32.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.10.2026 24 33.8N 32.5W 1017 20
1200UTC 05.10.2026 36 33.9N 32.3W 1015 23
0000UTC 06.10.2026 48 34.3N 33.2W 1015 25
1200UTC 06.10.2026 60 35.4N 35.6W 1016 29
0000UTC 07.10.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 22.8N 94.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2026 84 22.8N 94.2W 1005 27
0000UTC 08.10.2026 96 22.6N 93.1W 1002 28
1200UTC 08.10.2026 108 23.9N 91.7W 999 36
0000UTC 09.10.2026 120 25.0N 90.3W 997 41
1200UTC 09.10.2026 132 26.3N 89.4W 996 41
0000UTC 10.10.2026 144 27.9N 87.8W 992 53
1200UTC 10.10.2026 156 30.3N 86.6W 996 42
0000UTC 11.10.2026 168 32.6N 87.9W 1003 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.3N 102.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2026 96 13.3N 102.7W 1002 29
1200UTC 08.10.2026 108 14.3N 104.3W 1001 30
0000UTC 09.10.2026 120 15.1N 105.3W 998 39
1200UTC 09.10.2026 132 15.6N 106.6W 997 41
0000UTC 10.10.2026 144 15.9N 107.5W 994 37
1200UTC 10.10.2026 156 17.0N 108.6W 991 41
0000UTC 11.10.2026 168 19.2N 108.8W 988 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 33.8N 66.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2026 120 34.2N 65.5W 1011 24
1200UTC 09.10.2026 132 36.0N 61.2W 1012 25
0000UTC 10.10.2026 144 40.6N 48.7W 1010 29
1200UTC 10.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040424


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 040253
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 54
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Oct 03 2026

Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the eye and the
inner core of Nolo have degraded, most likely due to an ongoing
eyewall replacement cycle. This evolution was seen earlier on
microwave imagery showing an outer moat region within the cyclone.
Using a combination of the subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and
HFO along with the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the
initial intensity has been set to 100 kt for this advisory.

Nolo continues to move quickly off towards the west at around 17 kt,
as the hurricane is being steered by an expanding mid-level ridge to
its north. Nolo should continue this motion with a forward speed
between 15 and 20 kt for the next several days, and Nolo is expected
to move across the International Date Line within the next 24 hours.
There is a large spread in the later portion of the track forecast
around days 4 and 5. This track spread seems related to potential
interaction with a disturbance (Invest 94W) currently near the
Marshall Islands and a longwave trough expected to move east of
Japan. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one, with some small adjustments made based on the HCCA and GDMI
forecast aids.

A generally favorable environment with low shear and warm
sea-surface temperatures near 28 C should allow for some more
intensification during the next day or so. The key to this forecast
will be how soon the current eyewall replacement cycle is completed.
If the cycle takes longer to complete, Nolo's intensification could
be delayed. After 36 h, the wind shear is forecast to increase,
which could lead to weakening that may also be hastened by
intrusions of dry air. The current NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous one with some small changes made over the next 36
h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 23.4N 175.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 23.6N 177.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 24.4N 179.0E 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 25.1N 176.0E 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 25.3N 172.7E 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 06/1200Z 25.3N 168.8E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 25.6N 164.6E 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 27.0N 156.5E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 28.5N 151.7E 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Katz/Blake


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 040253
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SAT OCT 03 2026

...NOLO RACING TOWARD THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 175.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSW OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM WSW OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 175.1 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH (31 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NOLO SHOULD CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE BY MIDDAY SUNDAY HAWAIIAN TIME.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BEFORE A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND BEGINS ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB (28.26 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: LARGE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS
FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 040252
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 175.1W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 175.1W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 174.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.6N 177.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N 179.0E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.1N 176.0E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.3N 172.7E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.3N 168.8E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N 164.6E
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 156.5E
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 28.5N 151.7E
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 175.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 032040
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 53
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Oct 03 2026

Nolo continues to display a compact and nearly symmetric pattern in
satellite imagery, and infrared imagery shows that cloud tops
around the eye have cooled since the last full advisory. Based
on the improved structure, Nolo was upgraded to a 100-kt major
hurricane on the 8 AM HST intermediate advisory. Since then, HFO and
JTWC each provided Dvorak estimates of T5.5/102 kt, and the highest
UW-CIMSS objective numbers are around that same value. The intensity
of 100 kt is therefore maintained on this advisory.

The forward speed has continued to increase this morning and is now
about 15 kt, with Nolo being steered quickly westward by an
expanding mid-level ridge to its north. The hurricane's speed is
likely to oscillate between 15 and 20 kt for much of the upcoming 5
days as ridging remains established at varying magnitudes. The
track guidance remains more tightly clustered than usual for the
first 3 days of the forecast, and Nolo is expected to cross the
International Date Line in 24-30 hours. The model spread is a little
higher on days 4 and 5. Some models, including the European, HAFS-B,
GDMI, and HCCA show a continued westward trajectory, while the GFS,
HAFS-A, HWRF, and COAMPS-TC show a bit of a turn toward the
northwest or north. These scenarios appear to be related to how much
Nolo might interact with a disturbance currently near the Marshall
Islands (Invest 94W) and a longwave trough expected to move east of
Japan. For now, the NHC forecast continues to favor the more
westward scenario.

Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures around 28 degrees
Celsius should support further intensification during the next day
or so, but intensity guidance suggests the period of rapid
intensification is complete. In fact, recent microwave data show
a moat now surrounding the eyewall, with a secondary eyewall
potentially forming about 25-30 n mi out from the center. This could
mean an eyewall replacement is about to occur, which typically leads
to fluctuations in intensity in the short term. If the eyewall
replacement occurs quickly enough, Nolo could reach a higher peak
intensity in 24-36 hours before shear begins to increase. The
increased shear and surrounding dry environment are likely to cause
significant weakening in the 3- to 5-day forecast period, and the
NHC forecast has been lowered during that time frame compared to the
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 23.2N 173.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 23.3N 175.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 23.8N 179.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 24.7N 177.6E 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 25.1N 174.5E 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 25.3N 170.9E 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 25.6N 166.6E 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 26.5N 158.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 27.3N 152.3E 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 032039
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SAT OCT 03 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 173.1W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSE OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO
LISIANSKI ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT WEST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 173.1 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
FASTER TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH (28 KM/H). A MAINLY WESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT BUT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WEST OF MARO REEF. NOLO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE
LINE BY SUNDAY MIDDAY HAWAIIAN TIME.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY, BUT NOLO COULD STILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB (28.32 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND THROUGH TODAY.

SURF: LARGE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS
FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 032039
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 53
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 173.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 173.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 172.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.3N 175.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.8N 179.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.7N 177.6E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.1N 174.5E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.3N 170.9E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 25.6N 166.6E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 26.5N 158.5E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 27.3N 152.3E
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 173.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 031744
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 52A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM HST SAT OCT 03 2026

...NOLO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 172.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSW OF MARO REEF
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF LISIANSKI ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO
LISIANSKI ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT WEST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 172.0 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
FASTER TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H). A MAINLY WESTWARD
MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT BUT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WEST OF MARO REEF. NOLO IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE
LINE BY SUNDAY MIDDAY HAWAIIAN TIME.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES (240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB (28.32 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND THROUGH TODAY.

SURF: LARGE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS
FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 031624

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 03.10.2026

HURRICANE RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 111.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2026 0 19.7N 111.8W 970 63
0000UTC 04.10.2026 12 20.2N 112.9W 972 58
1200UTC 04.10.2026 24 20.3N 113.9W 973 57
0000UTC 05.10.2026 36 20.3N 115.0W 973 54
1200UTC 05.10.2026 48 20.4N 116.4W 972 57
0000UTC 06.10.2026 60 20.6N 118.0W 971 60
1200UTC 06.10.2026 72 20.8N 119.8W 974 55
0000UTC 07.10.2026 84 21.1N 121.3W 977 54
1200UTC 07.10.2026 96 21.6N 123.2W 981 49
0000UTC 08.10.2026 108 22.1N 125.3W 985 45
1200UTC 08.10.2026 120 22.3N 127.5W 989 42
0000UTC 09.10.2026 132 22.5N 129.3W 991 39
1200UTC 09.10.2026 144 22.2N 130.9W 995 39
0000UTC 10.10.2026 156 21.9N 131.9W 997 36
1200UTC 10.10.2026 168 21.7N 132.3W 999 35

HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.3N 170.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2026 0 23.3N 170.6W 977 62
0000UTC 04.10.2026 12 23.2N 174.1W 972 67
1200UTC 04.10.2026 24 23.4N 177.8W 966 76
0000UTC 05.10.2026 36 24.3N 179.1E 965 78
1200UTC 05.10.2026 48 25.0N 176.0E 966 78
0000UTC 06.10.2026 60 25.1N 172.8E 964 82
1200UTC 06.10.2026 72 24.9N 168.9E 972 84
0000UTC 07.10.2026 84 25.2N 164.5E 988 56
1200UTC 07.10.2026 96 25.7N 160.5E 996 45
0000UTC 08.10.2026 108 25.7N 156.7E 996 40
1200UTC 08.10.2026 120 25.6N 152.5E 997 42
0000UTC 09.10.2026 132 25.1N 148.6E 997 39
1200UTC 09.10.2026 144 24.2N 144.6E 997 40
0000UTC 10.10.2026 156 22.9N 141.6E 993 38
1200UTC 10.10.2026 168 22.1N 141.0E 994 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.6N 103.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2026 108 12.8N 104.8W 1002 29
1200UTC 08.10.2026 120 12.9N 105.4W 1000 38
0000UTC 09.10.2026 132 13.9N 107.0W 997 40
1200UTC 09.10.2026 144 14.4N 108.0W 994 39
0000UTC 10.10.2026 156 15.0N 109.3W 990 42
1200UTC 10.10.2026 168 15.7N 110.4W 985 43

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 20.9N 91.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2026 132 20.9N 92.0W 1003 36
1200UTC 09.10.2026 144 21.5N 92.1W 1003 35
0000UTC 10.10.2026 156 21.5N 92.4W 1003 35
1200UTC 10.10.2026 168 21.9N 92.1W 1004 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 031624


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 031437
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 52
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Oct 03 2026

Nolo may be taking a short breather during its intensification
phase. The hurricane has a fairly symmetric convective pattern,
with cloud tops as cold as -68 degrees Celsius in the southern
eyewall and an eye temperature of about 14 degrees Celsius. This
pattern yielded subjective Dvorak estimates of T5.0/90 kt from HFO
and JTWC, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS are as high as
90-95 kt. As a result, Nolo's current intensity is maintained at 95
kt.

Nolo is moving faster as expected, and the current motion is now
westward (265 degrees) at 12 kt. Strong ridging to the north is
expected to cause Nolo to accelerate further toward the west,
potentially reaching a forward speed of around 20 kt by day 4. The
track models are very tightly clustered for the next 3 days, and
confidence in that part of the forecast is very high. Nolo is
expected to be west of the International Date Line by hour 36.
There is higher-than-normal spread in the guidance on days 4 and 5,
mainly related to how Nolo might interact with a disturbance
currently near the Marshall Islands (Invest 94W) and a longwave
trough expected to move east of Japan. The NHC forecast favors the
models on the southern end of the guidance envelope, showing a
continued westward track, and is very close to the previous
prediction.

Nolo's intensification is likely to resume soon while it moves over
sea surface temperatures around 28 degrees Celsius, and deep-layer
shear becomes almost negligible. A lot of dry air surrounds the
hurricane, with mid-level relative humidity around 40 percent,
but the low shear should minimize how much dry air can
infiltrate Nolo's circulation. Nolo is expected to become a major
hurricane later today and could peak at category 4 intensity in
about 36 hours, if not sooner. There is some model signal for a
faster rate of intensification during the first 24 hours than what
is shown in the official forecast, with the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index showing a 40 percent chance of a 20-kt
increase in winds over the next 12 hours. The HAFS-A/B hurricane
models are also slightly higher through 36 hours. Internal dynamics,
such as an eyewall replacement, as well as a slight increase in
shear will likely induce some weakening after 36 hours, but Nolo is
expected to remain a hurricane--or a typhoon west of the Date
Line--through the end of the 5-day forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 23.1N 171.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 23.2N 173.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 23.6N 177.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 24.3N 179.3E 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 25.1N 176.2E 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 25.3N 172.8E 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 25.5N 168.8E 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 26.2N 160.4E 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 26.9N 153.8E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 031436
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 171.2W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 171.2W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 170.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.2N 173.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.6N 177.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.3N 179.3E
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.1N 176.2E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 25.3N 172.8E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.5N 168.8E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.2N 160.4E
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 26.9N 153.8E
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 171.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 031141
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 51A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM HST SAT OCT 03 2026

...NOLO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 170.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM S OF MARO REEF
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM W OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND, INCLUDING MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT WEST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 170.4 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
FASTER TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A MAINLY WESTWARD
MOTION WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT BUT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
WEST OF MARO REEF.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH NOLO FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES (185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB (28.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF THROUGH
THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FARTHER WEST FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND TODAY.

SURF: LARGE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS
FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 030837
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 51
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Oct 02 2026

Nolo is rapidly intensifying this evening, with cold cloud tops
associated with deep convection expanding symmetrically around a
very warm eye. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both JTWC
and HFO came in at T5.0/90 kt, which align with objective estimates.
Given these intensity estimates and the continued improvement in the
satellite presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 95 kt.

The initial motion is westward, or 270/9 kt. Guidance remains in
good agreement through the forecast period, with very little
cross-track spread, and shows a generally westward motion continuing
through the weekend. A gradual increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 h as the ridge builds to the north, with a faster
westward motion continuing thereafter. Nolo is forecast to cross the
International Date Line into the western Pacific basin by 48 h. The
latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
prediction.

The significant strengthening anticipated in the previous advisory
is well underway, with Nolo's intensity having increased by about 20
kt during the past 6 h. The persistent westerly to southwesterly
vertical wind shear that had been impacting Nolo's convective
structure has weakened significantly, with the latest UW-CIMSS
estimate around 5 kt. Weak shear combined with warmer SSTs along
the forecast track should support additional strengthening during
the next 24-48 h. The primary limiting factor continues to be the
surrounding dry mid-level air. Any dry air intrusions during this
period could disrupt the convective organization in the eyewall and
slow the intensification rate. The latest NHC intensity forecast has
been increased from the previous advisory, showing Nolo becoming a
major hurricane within 12 h and reaching a peak intensity of 120 kt
in 36-48 h. The forecast remains near the upper end of the guidance
envelope, lying close to the HCCA and HAFS-A and -B. A weakening
trend is forecast to begin after 48 h as increasing vertical wind
shear and dry mid-level air begin to gradually affect its structure.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 23.3N 169.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 23.3N 171.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 23.6N 175.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 24.2N 178.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 24.9N 177.9E 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 05/1800Z 25.3N 175.0E 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 25.5N 171.4E 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 25.9N 162.6E 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 27.0N 155.1E 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 030833
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST FRI OCT 02 2026

...NOLO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 169.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF MARO REEF
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM W OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND, INCLUDING MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT WEST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 169.6 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BUT REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEST OF FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH NOLO FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 H.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB (28.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FARTHER WEST FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND BY LATE SATURDAY.

SURF: LARGE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS
FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 030833
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SAT OCT 03 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 169.6W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 120SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 169.6W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 169.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.3N 171.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.6N 175.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.2N 178.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.9N 177.9E
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 25.3N 175.0E
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 25.5N 171.4E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 25.9N 162.6E
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 27.0N 155.1E
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 169.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 030536
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 50A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM HST FRI OCT 02 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 169.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND, INCLUDING MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT WEST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 169.0 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H). A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BUT REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEST OF FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
AND NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES (185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FARTHER WEST FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND ON SATURDAY.

SURF: LARGE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS
FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 030236
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 50
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Oct 02 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the convective organization has
continued to improve over the past several hours, with deep
convection expanding around a warming eye. The subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO reflect this, ranging from
T4.0/65 kt to T4.5/77 kt, with a D-PRINT objective estimate near
80 kt. Given these intensity estimates and the improved satellite
presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.

The initial motion is westward, or 270/6 kt. Guidance remains in
good agreement through the forecast period and shows this general
motion persisting into the weekend, followed by an increase in
forward speed beginning around 24 h as the ridge builds to the
north. Nolo is forecast to cross the International Date Line into
the western Pacific basin by 48 h. Model spread is remarkably
narrow, which increases forecast confidence in Nolo's track, and the
new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction.

The persistent westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear that
has been impacting Nolo's convective structure and ability to
organize over the past several days has weakened significantly
during the past 24 h. The latest estimate from UW-CIMSS is now below
5 kt. Weak shear combined with warmer SSTs along the forecast track
should support a period of significant strengthening, especially
during the next 24-48 h. The statistical guidance reflects this and
depicts an increased potential for rapid intensification during the
next 24 h. The one limiting factor that could temper the rate of
intensification is the surrounding dry mid-level air. Any dry air
intrusions during this period could disrupt the convective
organization in the eyewall and slow the intensification rate. The
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and
shows significant strengthening during the initial 24 h, and remains
above the guidance envelope, lying close to the HCCA and HAFS-A and
-B. A weakening trend is anticipated beginning around 72 h due to a
combination of increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 23.4N 168.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 23.4N 170.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 23.5N 173.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 23.9N 177.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 24.6N 179.5E 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/1200Z 25.2N 176.5E 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 25.5N 173.1E 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 25.9N 164.4E 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 27.4N 156.6E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 030233
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST FRI OCT 02 2026

...NOLO STRENGTHENING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 168.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM WSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SE OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND, INCLUDING MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT WEST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.5 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BUT REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEST OF FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
AND NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FARTHER WEST FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND ON SATURDAY.

SURF: LARGE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS
FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 022338
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 49A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM HST FRI OCT 02 2026

...NOLO HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 168.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND, INCLUDING MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT WEST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 168.3 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A MAINLY WESTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BUT
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEST OF
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, AND NOLO COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES (185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB (29.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FARTHER WEST FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND ON SATURDAY.

SURF: LARGE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS
FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 022035
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 49
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Oct 02 2026

Nolo's eye has come and gone in visible and infrared satellite
imagery since the early morning hours. Based on the current
structure, HFO and JTWC have both provided Dvorak Current Intensity
estimates of 4.0/65 kt, and a UW-CIMSS DMINT estimate based on a
1805 UTC GMI microwave pass yielded an estimate of 66 kt. Nolo is
therefore upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.

Nolo's motion is now slowly westward, or 280/5 kt, due to weak
ridging to the north of the hurricane. A mid-level area of high
pressure located west of the International Date Line is expected to
build eastward, re-establishing itself to the north of Nolo and
causing the cyclone to accelerate significantly--moving 3 times
faster than it is now--by late Saturday. This fast, mostly-westward
movement is then expected to continue through the middle of next
week, with Nolo crossing the International Date Line between 48-60
hours. Model spread is remarkably narrow, which increases forecast
confidence in Nolo's track, and the new NHC forecast is very
similar to the previous prediction.

There is still some moderate deep-layer westerly shear affecting
Nolo, but that shear is expected to decrease during the next 6-12
hours and become negligible by this time tomorrow. While the shear
lessens, Nolo is expected to move over slightly warmer waters, and
the environment is forecast to become more divergent aloft. These 3
factors could lead to a period of significant strengthening.
The one main negative factor is mid-level moisture around the
hurricane, which will only be in the 40 percent range. That said,
DTOPS, one of NHC's rapid intensification (RI) predictors, is now
showing a probability of RI over 50 percent during the next 24
hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is now explicitly showing the
possibility of RI, and it is just below the highest guidance, which
include HCCA, the Florida State Superensemble, and HAFS-A and -B.
Model guidance is unanimous in showing a weakening trend after day
3, generally in response to an increase in deep-layer northerly
shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 23.3N 167.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 23.3N 169.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 23.3N 172.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 23.4N 175.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 24.0N 178.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 24.7N 178.0E 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 25.3N 174.8E 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 25.7N 167.2E 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 26.9N 159.1E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 022034
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST FRI OCT 02 2026

...NOLO BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 167.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT EAST OF FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND, INCLUDING MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT WEST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.8 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BUT REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEST OF FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO, AND NOLO COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB (29.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
FARTHER WEST FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND ON SATURDAY.

SURF: LARGE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS
FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 022031
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC FRI OCT 02 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 167.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 167.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 167.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.3N 169.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.3N 172.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.4N 175.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.0N 178.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.7N 178.0E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 021749
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM HST FRI OCT 02 2026

...NOLO EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 167.4W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
LISIANSKI ISLAND, INCLUDING FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT WEST OF LISIANSKI ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
NOLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.4 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BUT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NOLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY EARLY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO MARO REEF THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
FARTHER WEST, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MARO REEF
TO LISIANSKI ISLAND BY SATURDAY.

SURF: LARGE WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE SURF WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS,
ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF INTO THE WEEKEND,
THEN FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 021626

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.10.2026

HURRICANE RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 110.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2026 0 19.3N 110.7W 965 66
0000UTC 03.10.2026 12 19.4N 111.4W 972 61
1200UTC 03.10.2026 24 19.7N 112.0W 976 54
0000UTC 04.10.2026 36 20.2N 113.0W 976 54
1200UTC 04.10.2026 48 20.3N 114.3W 975 49
0000UTC 05.10.2026 60 20.3N 115.4W 974 55
1200UTC 05.10.2026 72 20.5N 117.0W 975 55
0000UTC 06.10.2026 84 20.7N 118.8W 973 58
1200UTC 06.10.2026 96 20.7N 120.8W 977 49
0000UTC 07.10.2026 108 20.9N 122.5W 981 50
1200UTC 07.10.2026 120 21.2N 124.2W 986 45
0000UTC 08.10.2026 132 21.6N 125.7W 988 44
1200UTC 08.10.2026 144 22.1N 127.4W 990 40
0000UTC 09.10.2026 156 22.6N 128.8W 992 40
1200UTC 09.10.2026 168 23.0N 130.0W 994 41

TROPICAL STORM NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 167.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2026 0 23.2N 167.0W 988 41
0000UTC 03.10.2026 12 23.5N 168.2W 987 45
1200UTC 03.10.2026 24 23.3N 170.5W 985 47
0000UTC 04.10.2026 36 23.4N 174.0W 984 47
1200UTC 04.10.2026 48 23.5N 177.8W 985 51
0000UTC 05.10.2026 60 24.5N 179.2E 986 62
1200UTC 05.10.2026 72 25.0N 176.1E 987 69
0000UTC 06.10.2026 84 25.3N 173.0E 984 67
1200UTC 06.10.2026 96 25.0N 169.3E 988 63
0000UTC 07.10.2026 108 24.9N 164.7E 999 42
1200UTC 07.10.2026 120 24.4N 160.7E 1001 38
0000UTC 08.10.2026 132 23.3N 156.8E 1001 35
1200UTC 08.10.2026 144 22.0N 152.4E 996 43
0000UTC 09.10.2026 156 21.4N 148.3E 996 42
1200UTC 09.10.2026 168 20.7N 145.0E 993 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.9N 105.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2026 132 12.0N 105.9W 1001 32
1200UTC 08.10.2026 144 12.7N 107.9W 998 33
0000UTC 09.10.2026 156 13.4N 109.0W 995 38
1200UTC 09.10.2026 168 14.0N 110.4W 991 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 22.1N 172.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.10.2026 168 22.4N 173.3W 1007 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021626


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 021447
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 48
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Oct 02 2026

Nolo's convective structure continues to improve, with an eye
becoming apparent in GOES-West infrared and proxy visible images
during the past couple of hours. However, SHIPS and UW-CIMSS
analyses suggest that moderate west-southwesterly shear is still
affecting the storm, which seems realistic given the limited
upper-level outflow and some disruption of the convection in
the southern semicircle. Both subjective and objective estimates are
still catching up to the improved satellite presentation, with HFO
and UW-CIMSS DPRINT being the highest at about 55 kt, so the initial
intensity is set just above that at 60 kt.

Nolo continues to move slowly west-northwestward, or 285/5 kt,
located to the south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A
mid-level area of high pressure located west of the International
Date Line is expected to build eastward, repositioning itself to
the north of Nolo and causing the cyclone to turn westward and
accelerate significantly during the next few days. There is very
little spread among the track guidance, suggesting high confidence
in this forecast, and the new NHC track prediction has been nudged
only slightly south of the previous forecast toward the HCCA and
GDMI guidance. Nolo is forecast to cross the International Date
Line by hour 60.

The shear is expected to abate during the next 12-24 hours, which
should minimize the adverse effects of dry air in the surrounding
environment. The NHC intensity forecast leans toward the higher end
of the guidance, closest to the HCCA and HAFS-A/B model scenarios,
making Nolo a major hurricane in about 2 days and potentially
peaking in intensity around day 3. Weakening is expected after that
time, largely due to a significant increase in deep-layer shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 23.2N 167.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 23.3N 168.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 23.3N 170.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 23.3N 174.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 23.7N 177.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 24.5N 179.3E 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 25.2N 176.0E 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 25.8N 168.9E 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 26.8N 161.0E 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 021447
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST FRI OCT 02 2026

...NOLO ALMOST A HURRICANE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 167.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SE OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
LISIANSKI ISLAND, INCLUDING FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 167.2 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BUT REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WEST OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NOLO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE
BY EARLY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO MARO REEF THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
FARTHER WEST, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MARO REEF
TO LISIANSKI ISLAND BY SATURDAY.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF INTO THE
WEEKEND, THEN FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 021446
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC FRI OCT 02 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 167.2W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 167.2W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 167.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.3N 168.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.3N 170.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.3N 174.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.7N 177.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.5N 179.3E
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.2N 176.0E
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.8N 168.9E
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 26.8N 161.0E
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 167.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 021144
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM HST FRI OCT 02 2026

...NOLO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 166.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF MARO REEF
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
LISIANSKI ISLAND, INCLUDING FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.9 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
WEST IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD MOTION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NOLO IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO MARO REEF THROUGH FRIDAY. FARTHER
WEST, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MARO REEF TO
LISIANSKI ISLAND BY SATURDAY.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF INTO THE
WEEKEND, THEN FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 020834
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 47
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

Nolo is experiencing yet another burst of deep convection within its
northwest quadrant. While the southern semicircle remains relatively
free of activity, convection is starting to become more persistent
about the center of circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO both rated Nolo at 3.5/55 kt,
while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS continue to exhibit a wide
range of intensity estimates, from 35 to 57 kt. Based on these
intensity estimates and the improved satellite presentation, Nolo's
initial intensity was held at 55 kt.

The initial motion is set at 290/5 kt. While Nolo's motion has
slowed once again, the anticipated turn to the west is becoming
increasingly evident on satellite. High pressure located downstream
of the system is expected to shift north of Nolo, allowing it to
maintain a westward motion while gaining forward speed. Track
guidance seems to have better shifted to this more consistent,
due-west motion, so the latest NHC track forecast reflects this.
Overall, the track forecast has shifted to the left a bit from the
previous advisory, nudging towards HCCA and GDMI guidance.

SHIPS guidance consistently depicts Nola entering an environment
favorable for steady intensification. While mid-level moisture
looks to remain steady, vertical wind shear will markedly decrease
and SSTs will warm along Nolo's path. As a result, Nolo is expected
to become a hurricane once again over the weekend, and potentially
a major hurricane as it approaches the International Dateline. The
latest NHC intensity forecast generally falls in line with the
guidance median, with the main changes being to increase the rate
of intensification over the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 23.3N 166.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 23.4N 167.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 23.5N 169.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 23.5N 172.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 23.7N 175.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 24.3N 179.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 25.1N 177.8E 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 26.2N 171.2E 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 27.1N 163.2E 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 020833
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST THU OCT 01 2026

...NOLO STRENGTHENING AND BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FARTHER
WEST ALONG THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 166.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
LISIANSKI ISLAND, INCLUDING FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS AND MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AREAS FROM WEST OF MARO REEF TO
LISIANSKI ISLAND BY SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT DURING
THE WEEKEND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.7 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
WEST IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD MOTION.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NOLO IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO MARO REEF THROUGH FRIDAY. FARTHER
WEST, TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MARO REEF TO
LISIANSKI ISLAND BY SATURDAY.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF INTO THE
WEEKEND, THEN FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND DURING THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 020832
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC FRI OCT 02 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 166.7W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 60SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 166.7W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 166.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.4N 167.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.5N 169.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.5N 172.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.7N 175.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.3N 179.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 25.1N 177.8E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 26.2N 171.2E
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 27.1N 163.2E
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 166.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 020535
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM HST THU OCT 01 2026

...NOLO STRENGTHENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 166.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM WEST OF MARO
REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.4 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NOLO IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO MARO REEF INTO FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND
STARTING SATURDAY MORNING.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 020423

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.10.2026

HURRICANE RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 109.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2026 0 19.4N 109.6W 947 81
1200UTC 02.10.2026 12 19.6N 110.8W 960 71
0000UTC 03.10.2026 24 19.4N 111.8W 963 63
1200UTC 03.10.2026 36 19.4N 112.7W 971 51
0000UTC 04.10.2026 48 19.6N 113.5W 975 52
1200UTC 04.10.2026 60 19.5N 114.5W 975 52
0000UTC 05.10.2026 72 19.5N 115.4W 972 53
1200UTC 05.10.2026 84 19.7N 116.7W 971 60
0000UTC 06.10.2026 96 19.7N 118.3W 970 60
1200UTC 06.10.2026 108 19.9N 119.7W 969 59
0000UTC 07.10.2026 120 20.3N 120.9W 971 56
1200UTC 07.10.2026 132 20.8N 122.3W 977 54
0000UTC 08.10.2026 144 21.5N 123.9W 981 48
1200UTC 08.10.2026 156 22.1N 125.7W 986 44
0000UTC 09.10.2026 168 22.7N 127.4W 989 42

TROPICAL STORM NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 22.9N 165.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2026 0 22.9N 165.9W 991 42
1200UTC 02.10.2026 12 23.2N 166.9W 991 38
0000UTC 03.10.2026 24 23.6N 168.2W 991 42
1200UTC 03.10.2026 36 23.5N 170.6W 990 41
0000UTC 04.10.2026 48 23.5N 174.2W 988 43
1200UTC 04.10.2026 60 23.6N 178.0W 987 49
0000UTC 05.10.2026 72 24.3N 178.7E 988 56
1200UTC 05.10.2026 84 24.9N 175.4E 988 67
0000UTC 06.10.2026 96 25.4N 172.3E 985 65
1200UTC 06.10.2026 108 25.3N 168.8E 985 70
0000UTC 07.10.2026 120 25.8N 164.5E 997 48
1200UTC 07.10.2026 132 26.5N 160.9E 1002 40
0000UTC 08.10.2026 144 26.8N 158.2E 1004 35
1200UTC 08.10.2026 156 26.4N 154.7E 1005 32
0000UTC 09.10.2026 168 25.5N 150.6E 1005 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 34.4N 75.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.10.2026 84 34.4N 75.5W 1011 26
0000UTC 06.10.2026 96 34.1N 73.4W 1010 28
1200UTC 06.10.2026 108 33.2N 71.7W 1011 28
0000UTC 07.10.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.4N 98.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2026 96 11.4N 98.8W 1004 24
1200UTC 06.10.2026 108 11.0N 100.7W 1003 25
0000UTC 07.10.2026 120 12.1N 102.0W 1001 27
1200UTC 07.10.2026 132 12.6N 103.8W 998 31
0000UTC 08.10.2026 144 13.3N 105.7W 994 36
1200UTC 08.10.2026 156 13.7N 107.3W 989 41
0000UTC 09.10.2026 168 14.2N 108.7W 984 49


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020423


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 020237
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 46
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

Nolo continues to gradually become better organized. While
the storm's structure is still lacking across the southern
semicircle with drier air prevailing, deep convection is
re-igniting close to the center of circulation, displaced slightly
to the northwest. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
from JTWC and HFO rated Nolo at 45 and 55 kt, respectively, while
UW-CIMSS objective estimates show a wide spread of 29 to 50 kt.
With ASCAT data from around 2100 UTC showing max winds around 46
kt, and no significant changes occuring with Nolo's structure, the
initial intensity was held steady at 50 kt.

The initial motion was set at 310/10 kt. Nolo has nearly doubled in
speed over the last six hours. This is likely due high pressure
downstream of the system moving to Nolo's north, allowing the
cyclone to be picked up by stronger, subtropical steering flow.
Track guidance exhibits a fair amount of agreement on Nolo shifting
closer to due west over the next 24 to 48 hours, before turning back
to the west-northwest over the weekend while gaining forward speed.
Little was changed with the latest NHC track forecast compared to
the previous forecast.

Nolo is expected to enter a favorable environment defined by
warming SSTs and decreasing vertical wind shear. This will allow
for gradual restrengthening through much of the forecast period,
and Nolo may become a major hurricane as it approaches the
International Dateline. The latest NHC intensity forecast does
adjust Nolo's rate of strengthening heading into the weekend down
slightly, mostly as an effort to keep it more in line with the
guidance median, however Nolo's peak strength was raised slightly
to bring it more into agreement with HCCA guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 23.2N 166.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 23.4N 166.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 23.5N 168.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 23.5N 170.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 23.6N 173.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 04/1200Z 24.1N 177.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 24.8N 179.6E 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 26.3N 173.1E 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 27.3N 165.5E 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 020236
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST THU OCT 01 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 166.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM WEST OF MARO
REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 166.3 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR, AND NOLO IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TODAY, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM WEST OF MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND STARTING
SATURDAY MORNING.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 020236
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 166.3W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 50SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 166.3W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 165.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.4N 166.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.5N 168.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.5N 170.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.6N 173.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 24.1N 177.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.8N 179.6E
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.3N 173.1E
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 27.3N 165.5E
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 166.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 012332
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM HST THU OCT 01 2026

...NOLO INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 165.9W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM WEST OF MARO
REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.9 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND, AND COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TODAY, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM WEST OF MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND STARTING
SATURDAY MORNING.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 012044
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 45
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

Nolo is gradually becoming better organized. Moderate-to-deep
convection has made a comeback near the center, with a large spiral
band noted in the eastern semicircle. Additionally, microwave data
indicate that the low-level core of the system remains fairly
intact. The current intensity is held at 50 kt as the satellite
estimates haven't quite caught up with the earlier scatterometer
pass.

The storm continues to move slowly to the northwest. A subtropical
high over the west-central Pacific is forecast to build north of
the cyclone during the next few days. This evolution is expected
to cause Nolo to turn westward by tomorrow and pick up a lot of
forward speed over the weekend while moving generally west-
northwestward, south of the main atolls of the northwestern
Hawaiian Islands. Similar to the last advisory, the new forecast
is nudged a bit the north to come into better agreement with the
Google DeepMind and HCCA aids.

After the recent failed extratropical transition, it will take a
bit of time to re-build the warm-core structure aloft, so only a
gradual strengthening is shown for the next 24 h. However, with
convection near the center already, combined with the forecast drop
in shear and increase in SSTs during the next 2-3 days, these
factors suggest that a significant re-strengthening episode is
coming. Since the low-level core structure is already present,
rapid intensification is a distinct possibility by the weekend, and
the new forecast is raised from the previous one, showing Nolo as
a major hurricane when it crosses the International Dateline.
Increasing shear could cause some weakening at the end of the
forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 22.3N 165.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 22.8N 166.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 23.2N 167.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 23.2N 168.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 23.1N 171.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 23.4N 175.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 24.1N 178.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 25.7N 175.0E 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 26.2N 167.9E 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 012043
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST THU OCT 01 2026

...NOLO POISED TO RE-STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 165.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM WEST OF MARO
REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.5 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN WITH A LARGE
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
NOLO SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MAIN ATOLLS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND, AND COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TODAY, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM WEST OF MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND STARTING
SATURDAY MORNING.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 012042
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU OCT 01 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 165.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 80SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 165.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 165.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.8N 166.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.2N 167.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.2N 168.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.1N 171.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.4N 175.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 24.1N 178.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.7N 175.0E
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.2N 167.9E
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 165.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 011754
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM HST THU OCT 01 2026

...NOLO MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 165.4W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM WEST OF MARO
REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.4 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD TURN WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE WEEKEND.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, NOLO SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MAIN ATOLLS
OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND NOLO
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TODAY, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM WEST OF MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND STARTING
SATURDAY MORNING.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 011624

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.10.2026

HURRICANE RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 109.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2026 0 19.1N 109.3W 958 81
0000UTC 02.10.2026 12 19.6N 109.8W 967 69
1200UTC 02.10.2026 24 19.8N 110.8W 975 57
0000UTC 03.10.2026 36 19.8N 111.8W 976 60
1200UTC 03.10.2026 48 19.9N 112.6W 978 53
0000UTC 04.10.2026 60 20.1N 113.8W 980 49
1200UTC 04.10.2026 72 20.0N 115.0W 981 47
0000UTC 05.10.2026 84 19.6N 116.3W 981 45
1200UTC 05.10.2026 96 19.4N 117.7W 980 52
0000UTC 06.10.2026 108 19.2N 119.2W 978 52
1200UTC 06.10.2026 120 19.0N 120.8W 977 50
0000UTC 07.10.2026 132 19.0N 122.1W 979 48
1200UTC 07.10.2026 144 19.0N 123.1W 983 49
0000UTC 08.10.2026 156 19.6N 123.9W 982 50
1200UTC 08.10.2026 168 20.4N 124.9W 986 46

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 124.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2026 0 14.9N 124.2W 1005 23
0000UTC 02.10.2026 12 14.9N 122.2W 1005 22
1200UTC 02.10.2026 24 14.1N 120.0W 1005 23
0000UTC 03.10.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 165.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2026 0 21.9N 165.5W 992 42
0000UTC 02.10.2026 12 22.5N 165.9W 991 43
1200UTC 02.10.2026 24 23.4N 166.7W 991 44
0000UTC 03.10.2026 36 23.8N 167.9W 989 48
1200UTC 03.10.2026 48 23.8N 170.3W 990 44
0000UTC 04.10.2026 60 23.8N 174.2W 986 48
1200UTC 04.10.2026 72 24.1N 178.1W 983 52
0000UTC 05.10.2026 84 24.8N 178.5E 981 58
1200UTC 05.10.2026 96 25.8N 175.3E 984 64
0000UTC 06.10.2026 108 26.6N 172.5E 984 67
1200UTC 06.10.2026 120 26.9N 169.7E 982 73
0000UTC 07.10.2026 132 26.4N 165.8E 980 62
1200UTC 07.10.2026 144 26.4N 160.6E 990 50
0000UTC 08.10.2026 156 27.2N 157.4E 997 46
1200UTC 08.10.2026 168 27.5N 154.6E 1001 42

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.9N 40.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2026 0 34.9N 40.3W 1014 22
0000UTC 02.10.2026 12 34.8N 38.2W 1015 20
1200UTC 02.10.2026 24 34.9N 35.7W 1017 21
0000UTC 03.10.2026 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 27.3N 61.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2026 48 28.4N 61.7W 1015 25
0000UTC 04.10.2026 60 30.6N 61.6W 1015 26
1200UTC 04.10.2026 72 32.5N 60.7W 1016 25
0000UTC 05.10.2026 84 33.9N 59.2W 1015 23
1200UTC 05.10.2026 96 35.9N 57.2W 1013 27
0000UTC 06.10.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.7N 99.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2026 120 12.7N 99.3W 1003 28
0000UTC 07.10.2026 132 13.2N 101.7W 999 31
1200UTC 07.10.2026 144 13.7N 103.8W 996 34
0000UTC 08.10.2026 156 14.0N 105.1W 992 41
1200UTC 08.10.2026 168 15.1N 106.2W 988 45


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011624


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 011452
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 44
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

Nolo has made a bit of a recovery overnight. Satellite imagery
shows that bursts of deep convection are forming in the northwestern
quadrant of the storm, with some outflow becoming apparent as well.
While conventional satellite estimates remain barely at
tropical-storm strength, scatterometer data from overnight a bit
surprisingly showed winds over 45 kt. Given the low bias of the
instrument, the current intensity is set to 50 kt.

The storm is moving slowly to the west-northwest. Nolo should creep
to the west-northwest or northwest today while it becomes under the
influence of a distant high located over the subtropical
west-central Pacific. This high is forecast to strengthen
significantly during the next few days, which is likely to steer
Nolo much faster to the west or west-northwest this weekend into
early next week. The new forecast is shifted a little to the north
in the short-range to come into agreement with the various consensus
estimates, then is very similar to the previous advisory at long
range.

Little change in strength is expected for about the next day while
vertical wind shear remains high within a dry environment. However,
a notable change occurs this weekend as Nolo will move on the
northern side of an upper-level low, causing shear to drop off while
it moves over much warmer waters. This change should allow Nolo to
markedly strengthen by late this weekend, and the storm could be
close to a major hurricane again by the time it nears the Dateline
in 3-4 days. This is the solution shown by almost all of the
regional hurricane models, and the guidance trends from the last
cycle are upward. Thus, the intensity forecast is increased from
the previous one, primarily due to the initial wind speed in the
first day or so, then raised at longer range given the higher model
guidance. I should mention that this forecast could be too
conservative in a few days given the forecast upper-level wind
pattern.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 21.9N 165.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 22.3N 166.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 22.9N 166.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 23.1N 168.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 22.9N 170.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 23.0N 173.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 23.4N 177.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 25.0N 176.2E 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 25.8N 169.0E 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 011449
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST THU OCT 01 2026

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR NOLO IN PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 165.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF MARO REEF TO
LISIANSKI ISLAND IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM WEST OF MARO
REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.5 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD TURN WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE
WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, NOLO SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
MAIN ATOLLS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND NOLO
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES (165 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TODAY, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM WEST OF MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI ISLAND STARTING
SATURDAY MORNING.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 011447
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC THU OCT 01 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 165.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 80SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 165.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 165.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.3N 166.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.9N 166.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.1N 168.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.9N 170.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.0N 173.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.4N 177.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N 176.2E
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.8N 169.0E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 165.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 011236
TCUCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
235 AM HST Thu Oct 01 2026

...NOLO A LITTLE STRONGER...

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds of
Nolo have increased to 60 mph (95 km/h).

This intensity change will be reflected in the next routine
forecast advisory package that will be issued by 500 AM HST (1500
UTC).

SUMMARY OF 235 AM HST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 165.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 011140
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM HST THU OCT 01 2026

...NOLO MOVING SLOWLY JUST SOUTH OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 165.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.3 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
WEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY, BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE NOLO
MOVES WESTWARD WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TODAY, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF LATER TODAY.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 010844
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 43
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

Nolo's convection continues to dissipate. Satellite imagery this
evening reveals warming cloud-top temperatures across remnant
convection to the northwest of the low-level circulation, with dry
air across the storm's southern semicircle. The latest subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from both JTWC and HFO rate Nolo at 2.5
or 35 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging from 32 to
39 kt. Based on these data, Nolo's intensity has been held steady
at a generous 40 kt, with the lack of in situ data being the
primary reason for making no change.

Initial motion was estimated to be 285/3 kt. Nolo's forward speed is
beginning to increase as a high pressure ridge downstream weakens.
Track guidance exhibits strong agreement on keeping Nolo on a
west-northwestward to northwest motion over the next 24 hours,
before shifting closer to due west for the rest of the week. The
system is then forecast to turn west-northwest over the weekend and
gain forward motion as it is picked up by stronger subtropical
steering flow. The latest NHC track forecast shifts Nolo's path a
little to the north to capture its initial motion better, and
generally falls between the previous advisory and HCCA guidance.

Nolo will struggle to regain its convection so long as it remains in
an environment characterized by strong vertical wind shear and
relatively dry mid-level air. Guidance, however, generally keeps
Nolo intact long enough before entering a more favorable environment
by the end of the week, allowing for gradual re-strengthening. The
latest NHC intensity forecast brings Nolo's max strength down
slightly, however, as model consensus generally favors a slower
strengthening cycle. The forecast still falls roughly within the
median of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 21.8N 165.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 22.0N 165.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 22.4N 166.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 22.7N 167.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 22.9N 169.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 22.9N 171.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 23.3N 175.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 24.7N 178.0E 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 25.7N 171.0E 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 010841
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST WED SEP 30 2026

...NOLO TURNS WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 165.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.2 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). A TURN TO THE
WEST IS FORECAST BY LATE THURSDAY, BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS NOLO MOVES WESTWARD WHILE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 010841
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 165.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 75SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 165.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 165.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.0N 165.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.4N 166.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 22.7N 167.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.9N 169.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 22.9N 171.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 23.3N 175.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 010538
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM HST WED SEP 30 2026

...NOLO HOLDING STEADY AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 165.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 165.0 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TODAY, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF BY THURSDAY.

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010424

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.10.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 126.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2026 0 14.8N 126.4W 1004 23
1200UTC 01.10.2026 12 15.1N 124.5W 1005 21
0000UTC 02.10.2026 24 15.1N 122.5W 1005 22
1200UTC 02.10.2026 36 14.2N 120.8W 1005 23
0000UTC 03.10.2026 48 13.5N 118.5W 1004 25
1200UTC 03.10.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 108.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2026 0 18.8N 108.4W 972 61
1200UTC 01.10.2026 12 19.2N 109.4W 960 77
0000UTC 02.10.2026 24 19.4N 110.2W 970 63
1200UTC 02.10.2026 36 19.4N 111.1W 975 57
0000UTC 03.10.2026 48 19.4N 111.9W 976 53
1200UTC 03.10.2026 60 19.7N 112.5W 976 52
0000UTC 04.10.2026 72 20.1N 113.6W 978 51
1200UTC 04.10.2026 84 20.2N 114.9W 980 49
0000UTC 05.10.2026 96 20.0N 116.2W 979 45
1200UTC 05.10.2026 108 19.9N 117.4W 980 48
0000UTC 06.10.2026 120 19.9N 118.7W 980 48
1200UTC 06.10.2026 132 20.2N 120.2W 981 45
0000UTC 07.10.2026 144 20.5N 121.6W 984 41
1200UTC 07.10.2026 156 20.8N 123.2W 988 40
0000UTC 08.10.2026 168 20.9N 124.6W 991 37

TROPICAL STORM NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 164.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2026 0 21.7N 164.7W 991 43
1200UTC 01.10.2026 12 21.9N 165.7W 989 43
0000UTC 02.10.2026 24 22.1N 166.2W 988 44
1200UTC 02.10.2026 36 22.6N 166.9W 988 47
0000UTC 03.10.2026 48 23.1N 167.7W 987 49
1200UTC 03.10.2026 60 23.3N 169.7W 988 50
0000UTC 04.10.2026 72 23.7N 173.3W 986 48
1200UTC 04.10.2026 84 24.1N 177.3W 984 52
0000UTC 05.10.2026 96 24.8N 179.3E 982 53
1200UTC 05.10.2026 108 25.8N 176.1E 988 65
0000UTC 06.10.2026 120 26.7N 173.2E 985 65
1200UTC 06.10.2026 132 27.3N 170.1E 985 60
0000UTC 07.10.2026 144 27.8N 166.5E 990 57
1200UTC 07.10.2026 156 29.4N 162.5E 998 48
0000UTC 08.10.2026 168 33.4N 161.7E 1004 42

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.8N 42.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2026 0 33.8N 42.5W 1012 22
1200UTC 01.10.2026 12 34.9N 40.6W 1014 22
0000UTC 02.10.2026 24 35.0N 38.4W 1015 21
1200UTC 02.10.2026 36 35.1N 35.9W 1017 21
0000UTC 03.10.2026 48 35.2N 33.6W 1017 19
1200UTC 03.10.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 29.5N 60.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2026 60 29.5N 60.8W 1014 26
0000UTC 04.10.2026 72 31.6N 60.5W 1015 24
1200UTC 04.10.2026 84 33.6N 58.9W 1015 24
0000UTC 05.10.2026 96 34.9N 56.8W 1015 24
1200UTC 05.10.2026 108 36.0N 54.9W 1012 26
0000UTC 06.10.2026 120 37.6N 53.4W 1009 29
1200UTC 06.10.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.6N 99.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.10.2026 144 13.9N 100.4W 1001 29
1200UTC 07.10.2026 156 14.1N 102.5W 998 32
0000UTC 08.10.2026 168 14.4N 103.9W 994 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 29.7N 80.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2026 168 29.7N 80.4W 1009 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010424


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 010245
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

Nolo's structure has degraded quite a bit over the last couple of
hours. The storm has lost its defined center, and convection across
the southern flank has weakened substantially based on satellite
imagery. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO and JTWC
both assigned Nolo a Final T-Number of 2.5, and UW-CIMSS objective
intensity estimates range from 27 to 42 kt. Based on these data,
Nolo's initial intensity was lowered slightly to 40 kt.

The storm's forward motion has slowed to a crawl, and initial motion
was set at 270/1 kt, although confidence is low on Nolo's exact
motion at 0300 UTC since its center position has hardly moved over
the last two hours. Nolo's lack of motion is being driven by strong
high pressure to its northwest and an upper-level trough to its
northeast. Global models generally depict Nolo increasing in forward
speed as it moves westward over the course of the next several days,
as an upper-level low over the west Pacific weakens the
aforementioned high. So long as the current synoptic pattern is in
place, however, Nolo may appear nearly stationary at times. Little
was changed in the latest track forecast, other than to nudge it
toward the latest HCCA guidance.

Nolo continues to be in a hostile environment defined by strong
vertical wind shear, relatively dry mid-level air, and marginal
SSTs. Guidance generally depicts shear backing off as the storm
moves westward over warming SSTs, however, Nolo may struggle to
re-intensify in the meantime. The latest NHC intensity forecast
keeps Nolo's strength relatively steady overnight, before
environmental conditions are expected to allow for a gradual
increase in intensity starting late Thursday onward. This forecast
lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 21.5N 164.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 21.6N 165.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 21.9N 165.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 22.3N 166.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 22.6N 167.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 22.7N 170.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 22.8N 173.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 24.2N 179.8E 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 25.5N 173.1E 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Evans/Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 010243
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC THU OCT 01 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 164.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 210SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 164.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 164.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.6N 165.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.9N 165.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.3N 166.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.6N 167.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 22.7N 170.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.8N 173.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 24.2N 179.8E
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 25.5N 173.1E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 164.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 302331
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM HST WED SEP 30 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS IT BRINGS TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 164.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 302040
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

Significant wind shear has caused Nolo to rapidly weaken over the
past day, with the remaining deep convection displaced well away
from the fully exposed center of circulation. The tropical storm has
also become increasingly vertically shallow and is currently
wobbling, likely in response to the low-level steering flow. The
latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 35-45 kt, while
objective intensity estimates ranged from 31-41 kt. The initial
intensity is set at a potentially generous 45 kt for this advisory.

Nolo is currently situated between a strong upper-level low to the
northeast and a building ridge centered to the northwest. Despite
this pattern, the tropical storm is drifting toward the
south-southeast, and additional small wobbles in the motion are
possible over the next day or so. A turn back toward the west is
forecast by Thursday, followed by a slow forward motion over the
subsequent day as the upper-level low pulls away from Nolo and the
ridge expands north of the cyclone. By this weekend, Nolo is
expected to accelerate as a new area of high pressure develops to
its north. On the forecast track, Nolo is expected to cross the
International Date Line around days 4-5. The latest NHC forecast has
been shifted to the left from the previous one to account for
the southward initial motion, and is also closer to the latest HCCA
and Google DeepMind solutions.

Very hostile environmental conditions are expected to inhibit any
strengthening over the next day or so. Beyond 24-36 h, Nolo is
forecast to move over warmer ocean temperatures and into an
environment with substantially lower wind shear, supporting gradual
re-strengthening. However, persistent dry mid-level air could limit
the rate of intensification despite the otherwise favorable
conditions. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope, with Nolo expected to regain hurricane
strength in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 21.6N 164.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 21.8N 165.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 21.9N 165.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 22.3N 166.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 22.6N 167.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 22.8N 168.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 23.0N 171.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 24.1N 178.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 25.5N 174.9E 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 302040
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST WED SEP 30 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES TO BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 164.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.7 WEST. NOLO IS
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 302039
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC WED SEP 30 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 164.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 170 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 164.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 164.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 21.8N 165.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 21.9N 165.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.3N 166.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 22.6N 167.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.8N 168.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.0N 171.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.1N 178.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 25.5N 174.9E
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 164.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 301737
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM HST WED SEP 30 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES TO BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...NOLO TEMPORARILY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 164.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.6 WEST. NOLO IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY RE-INTENSIFICATION LATER THIS WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB (29.42 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TODAY, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING WESTWARD FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS EAST OF NOLO WILL PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO
6 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS KAUAI AND NIIHAU THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS KAUAI. THIS RAINFALL COULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 301623

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 30.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 128.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2026 0 14.4N 128.6W 1005 23
0000UTC 01.10.2026 12 14.9N 126.5W 1005 22
1200UTC 01.10.2026 24 15.2N 124.7W 1005 19
0000UTC 02.10.2026 36 15.3N 123.2W 1005 20
1200UTC 02.10.2026 48 14.5N 121.7W 1005 22
0000UTC 03.10.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 43.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2026 0 33.6N 43.8W 1011 26
0000UTC 01.10.2026 12 33.9N 42.6W 1012 23
1200UTC 01.10.2026 24 35.0N 40.2W 1014 24
0000UTC 02.10.2026 36 35.8N 37.5W 1014 22
1200UTC 02.10.2026 48 36.2N 34.5W 1015 22
0000UTC 03.10.2026 60 36.6N 32.0W 1016 22
1200UTC 03.10.2026 72 37.0N 30.1W 1016 26
0000UTC 04.10.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 107.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2026 0 17.7N 107.4W 981 57
0000UTC 01.10.2026 12 18.9N 108.6W 974 58
1200UTC 01.10.2026 24 19.3N 109.2W 964 74
0000UTC 02.10.2026 36 19.9N 110.0W 970 61
1200UTC 02.10.2026 48 20.1N 110.8W 973 58
0000UTC 03.10.2026 60 20.4N 111.7W 976 56
1200UTC 03.10.2026 72 20.6N 113.0W 973 52
0000UTC 04.10.2026 84 20.6N 114.4W 978 50
1200UTC 04.10.2026 96 20.3N 115.9W 980 46
0000UTC 05.10.2026 108 20.1N 117.2W 979 51
1200UTC 05.10.2026 120 19.9N 118.5W 978 52
0000UTC 06.10.2026 132 19.8N 120.0W 977 49
1200UTC 06.10.2026 144 19.8N 121.2W 980 47
0000UTC 07.10.2026 156 19.8N 122.3W 982 45
1200UTC 07.10.2026 168 20.2N 123.5W 986 44

TROPICAL STORM NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 164.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2026 0 22.2N 164.7W 987 57
0000UTC 01.10.2026 12 21.6N 165.0W 992 47
1200UTC 01.10.2026 24 21.7N 165.5W 990 41
0000UTC 02.10.2026 36 22.1N 166.2W 991 43
1200UTC 02.10.2026 48 22.6N 166.8W 991 44
0000UTC 03.10.2026 60 23.1N 167.5W 990 48
1200UTC 03.10.2026 72 23.2N 169.1W 991 46
0000UTC 04.10.2026 84 23.4N 172.5W 988 45
1200UTC 04.10.2026 96 23.7N 176.3W 987 49
0000UTC 05.10.2026 108 24.6N 179.4W 983 63
1200UTC 05.10.2026 120 25.3N 177.4E 984 72
0000UTC 06.10.2026 132 25.9N 174.4E 976 69
1200UTC 06.10.2026 144 25.8N 171.1E 977 73
0000UTC 07.10.2026 156 25.4N 167.5E 979 71
1200UTC 07.10.2026 168 25.7N 161.7E 994 50

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 27.3N 60.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2026 60 27.3N 60.5W 1014 27
1200UTC 03.10.2026 72 29.3N 60.6W 1013 28
0000UTC 04.10.2026 84 31.8N 60.1W 1012 30
1200UTC 04.10.2026 96 34.0N 58.9W 1012 30
0000UTC 05.10.2026 108 35.6N 57.1W 1011 29
1200UTC 05.10.2026 120 37.5N 55.3W 1009 30
0000UTC 06.10.2026 132 40.2N 53.3W 1004 33
1200UTC 06.10.2026 144 44.7N 49.2W 996 41
0000UTC 07.10.2026 156 51.2N 44.3W 992 43
1200UTC 07.10.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 39.3N 2.7E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.10.2026 84 39.3N 2.7E 1016 27
1200UTC 04.10.2026 96 40.6N 3.1E 1007 42
0000UTC 05.10.2026 108 41.1N 4.1E 1005 46
1200UTC 05.10.2026 120 42.1N 5.2E 998 58
0000UTC 06.10.2026 132 42.8N 6.2E 999 53
1200UTC 06.10.2026 144 43.6N 7.2E 1013 29
0000UTC 07.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.3N 98.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2026 132 12.3N 98.9W 1003 25
1200UTC 06.10.2026 144 13.7N 101.1W 1003 31
0000UTC 07.10.2026 156 13.8N 103.2W 999 33
1200UTC 07.10.2026 168 13.4N 104.4W 996 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 301622


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 301501
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 40
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

Significant southwesterly wind shear continues to cause rapid
weakening of Nolo this morning. The center of circulation is
completely exposed with only minimal convection persisting to the
northeast of the center. Nolo has also drifted south of due
west over the past several hours, and the initial position has been
adjusted accordingly. Recent intensity estimates have fallen
substantially and range from 35-55 kt. The initial intensity is set
at a potentially generous 50 kt for this advisory.

Nolo is drifting toward the west-southwest, steered by a building
mid-level ridge to the northwest and a strong, positively-tilted
trough located to the northeast. Given Nolo's rapid weakening over
the past day or so, the cyclone is forecast to drift slowly toward
the west or west-southwest over the next day or so as it becomes
increasingly steered by the low-level flow. Beyond 48 h, as Nolo
re-intensifies and becomes vertically deeper, a generally westward
motion at a faster forward speed is expected as the ridge builds to
the north, and Nolo is expected to cross the International Date
Line by day 5. The latest NHC forecast has been shifted to the
left from the previous forecast to account for the adjustment in
the initial position, which is also closer to the latest HCCA
and Google DeepMind solutions.

Prohibitive southwesterly wind shear and a dry mid-level environment
have caused rapid weakening over the past day or so, and similar
conditions are expected through the next day. Beyond that time as
the strong trough moves away from Nolo, decreasing shear and
slightly more favorable upper-level winds should support gradual
strengthening through the rest of this week and into this weekend.
However, the continued dry mid-level environment could limit the
rate of intensification despite warm sea surface temperatures. The
latest NHC intensity forecast has been raised slightly beyond 60 h
and Nolo is expected to regain hurricane strength around this time.
The intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 22.0N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 22.1N 165.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 22.1N 165.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 22.2N 166.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 22.6N 167.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 22.9N 168.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 23.1N 170.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 24.0N 176.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 25.7N 176.6E 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 301458
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST WED SEP 30 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES TO BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 165.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO MARO
REEF, INCLUDING NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 301457
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC WED SEP 30 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 165.0W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 165.0W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 164.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.1N 165.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.1N 165.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.2N 166.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 10SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.6N 167.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.9N 168.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.1N 170.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.0N 176.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.7N 176.6E
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 165.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 301147
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES TO BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...NOLO REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 164.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through
today.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later
this week.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 164.8 West. Nolo is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. A generally westward
motion is expected through the latter part of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast over the next day
or so, followed by some re-intensification during the latter part
of this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm
Watch area from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolo’s track will produce 3 to 6
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau through Thursday. This
rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially
in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 300837
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026

Nolo continues to rapidly weaken under the influence of strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air. Satellite
imagery shows that the low-level circulation center is now fully
exposed, with limited deep convection confined north of the center.
The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from JTWC
and HFO are 55 kt, while objective intensity estimates range from 50
to 60 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and decreasing
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt.

Nolo has begun its anticipated west-northwestward turn, with an
initial motion of 290/5 kt. As a ridge builds north of the cyclone,
Nolo is forecast to turn more toward the west overnight and into
Wednesday. A temporary westward to west-southwestward motion is
possible during the next day or so as the weakening system becomes
increasingly influenced by the lower-level steering flow.
Thereafter, as Nolo re-strengthens, it is forecast to gain some
latitude while continuing generally westward through about day 4,
followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5 as it crosses the
International Date Line. The track guidance remains in decent
agreement, despite some continued along- and cross-track spread. The
latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous
prediction and lies near the HCCA and GDMI aids.

Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are
expected to continue affecting Nolo during the next day or so,
resulting in additional weakening. The shear is forecast to relax
thereafter, allowing environmental conditions to become more
favorable for re-strengthening. However, the dry mid-level
environment could limit the rate of intensification despite warm sea
surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very
similar to the previous advisory, showing continued weakening during
the next day or so, followed by little change in strength through
Thursday before re-strengthening begins. Nolo is forecast to regain
hurricane intensity by Friday and strengthen somewhat thereafter.
The intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 22.4N 164.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 22.6N 164.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 22.7N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 22.6N 165.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 22.8N 166.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 23.1N 167.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 23.4N 168.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 24.1N 174.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 26.1N 178.7E 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 300836
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 29 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES TO BRING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...NOLO NOW TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 164.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS HAS BEEN
CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.6 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). NOLO IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY. A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO, FOLLOWED BY SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THIS WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF BY
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS EAST OF NOLOA S TRACK WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS KAUAI AND NIIHAU THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO WILL AFFECT SOUTH- AND WEST-FACING
SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 300835
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 164.6W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 164.6W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 164.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.6N 164.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.7N 165.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.6N 165.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.8N 166.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N 167.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.4N 168.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 24.1N 174.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 26.1N 178.7E
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 35SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 164.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 300547
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM HST TUE SEP 29 2026

...NOLO WEAKENING AS IT SLOWS OVER THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT BETWEEN NIHOA AND FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...
...WESTWARD TURN EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 164.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER
THIS WEEK.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.2 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH (6 KM/H). NOLO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT
TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES (220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB (29.03 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF BY
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS EAST OF NOLOA S TRACK WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS KAUAI AND NIIHAU THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO WILL AFFECT SOUTH- AND WEST-FACING
SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 300421

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 48.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2026 0 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.3N 50.8W 1014 22
0000UTC 01.10.2026 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM POLO ANALYSED POSITION : 32.7N 108.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2026 0 32.7N 108.8W 999 18
1200UTC 30.09.2026 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 106.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2026 0 16.7N 106.3W 988 46
1200UTC 30.09.2026 12 18.1N 107.7W 981 58
0000UTC 01.10.2026 24 19.0N 108.9W 974 63
1200UTC 01.10.2026 36 19.5N 109.4W 969 65
0000UTC 02.10.2026 48 20.0N 110.1W 970 68
1200UTC 02.10.2026 60 20.4N 111.0W 971 64
0000UTC 03.10.2026 72 20.7N 111.9W 972 59
1200UTC 03.10.2026 84 20.8N 113.1W 971 53
0000UTC 04.10.2026 96 20.7N 114.1W 978 49
1200UTC 04.10.2026 108 21.1N 115.3W 984 45
0000UTC 05.10.2026 120 21.2N 116.9W 985 53
1200UTC 05.10.2026 132 21.0N 118.0W 982 53
0000UTC 06.10.2026 144 20.7N 118.9W 979 50
1200UTC 06.10.2026 156 20.7N 120.1W 981 51
0000UTC 07.10.2026 168 20.5N 121.2W 984 47

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 130.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2026 0 14.1N 130.3W 1003 23
1200UTC 30.09.2026 12 14.4N 128.7W 1004 22
0000UTC 01.10.2026 24 14.7N 126.4W 1005 21
1200UTC 01.10.2026 36 15.2N 125.1W 1005 18
0000UTC 02.10.2026 48 15.1N 124.2W 1005 18
1200UTC 02.10.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 33.8N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2026 0 33.8N 44.1W 1010 32
1200UTC 30.09.2026 12 33.7N 43.4W 1011 27
0000UTC 01.10.2026 24 34.3N 41.7W 1012 24
1200UTC 01.10.2026 36 35.4N 39.2W 1013 24
0000UTC 02.10.2026 48 36.6N 36.0W 1013 22
1200UTC 02.10.2026 60 37.6N 32.5W 1010 27
0000UTC 03.10.2026 72 37.5N 29.9W 1012 30
1200UTC 03.10.2026 84 36.7N 30.1W 1013 30
0000UTC 04.10.2026 96 35.7N 30.4W 1015 29
1200UTC 04.10.2026 108 35.4N 31.3W 1016 29
0000UTC 05.10.2026 120 35.6N 33.3W 1016 26
1200UTC 05.10.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 164.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2026 0 22.0N 164.2W 965 86
1200UTC 30.09.2026 12 22.4N 164.6W 982 56
0000UTC 01.10.2026 24 22.0N 165.0W 988 55
1200UTC 01.10.2026 36 21.8N 166.0W 987 46
0000UTC 02.10.2026 48 22.1N 166.2W 987 48
1200UTC 02.10.2026 60 22.7N 166.7W 985 48
0000UTC 03.10.2026 72 23.3N 167.3W 983 47
1200UTC 03.10.2026 84 23.5N 168.7W 984 53
0000UTC 04.10.2026 96 24.1N 171.5W 983 51
1200UTC 04.10.2026 108 24.7N 175.8W 983 52
0000UTC 05.10.2026 120 25.5N 179.7W 981 57
1200UTC 05.10.2026 132 26.3N 176.5E 983 65
0000UTC 06.10.2026 144 26.5N 173.0E 980 65
1200UTC 06.10.2026 156 26.6N 169.3E 980 65
0000UTC 07.10.2026 168 27.0N 165.1E 990 56

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 25.4N 58.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2026 60 25.4N 58.6W 1015 25
0000UTC 03.10.2026 72 26.8N 59.6W 1014 27
1200UTC 03.10.2026 84 28.3N 60.5W 1014 26
0000UTC 04.10.2026 96 30.3N 60.5W 1014 26
1200UTC 04.10.2026 108 32.2N 59.4W 1014 27
0000UTC 05.10.2026 120 33.6N 58.4W 1013 26
1200UTC 05.10.2026 132 34.6N 56.7W 1011 25
0000UTC 06.10.2026 144 35.4N 55.1W 1009 24
1200UTC 06.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 156 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+156 : 12.7N 152.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2026 156 12.7N 152.7W 1006 23
0000UTC 07.10.2026 168 13.1N 153.3W 1004 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300421


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 300236
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026

Nolo continues to weaken this afternoon due to strong southwesterly
vertical wind shear and dry air entraining into the circulation.
Satellite imagery shows the low-level center becoming partially
exposed, with deep convection decreasing in coverage and cloud tops
warming. The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates
from JTWC and HFO are both 65 kt, while objective estimates range
from 65 to 75 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and
decreasing intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to
75 kt.

Nolo has started to slow down and is moving northward, or 360/5 kt.
This trend will continue tonight into Wednesday as it interacts with
a mid- to upper-level trough. As a mid-level ridge builds north of
Nolo, a sharp westward turn is forecast by early Wednesday, followed
by a generally westward motion through the remainder of the week.
The latest track guidance remains in decent agreement on this,
although some cross-track spread persists. The latest GDMI and HCCA
guidance has shifted southward from the previous cycle, taking Nolo
slightly farther away from French Frigate Shoals, Maro Reef, and
Lisianski Island as it moves westward. The ECMWF and GFS remain on
the southern side of the guidance envelope, while the GDMI and HCCA
are on the northern side. The latest NHC track forecast is similar
to the previous prediction and lies between these solutions. Nolo is
forecast to accelerate westward later this week and into the weekend
as the ridge becomes more established north of the cyclone.

Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are
expected to continue affecting Nolo during the next 36 to 48 h.
These hostile environmental conditions should result in additional
weakening, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm on
Wednesday. The shear is expected to relax in about 48 to 60 h,
allowing environmental conditions to become more favorable for
re-strengthening. However, the dry mid-level environment could limit
the rate of intensification despite the warm sea surface
temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very similar to
the previous advisory, showing continued weakening during the next
couple of days before gradual re-strengthening begins. Nolo is
forecast to regain hurricane intensity by Friday and strengthen
somewhat thereafter. The intensity forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 22.0N 164.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 22.4N 164.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 22.5N 164.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 22.6N 165.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 22.7N 166.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 22.9N 166.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 23.1N 168.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 23.8N 173.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 25.3N 179.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 300233
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 38
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026

...NOLO SLOWING DOWN WHILE BRINGING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 164.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later
this week.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 164.2 West. Nolo is moving
toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). Nolo will continue moving
northward across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument this
evening while gradually slowing down. A turn toward the west is
expected by Wednesday, followed by a generally westward motion
through the latter part of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast over the next couple of days,
followed by some re-intensification during the latter part of this
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning
area from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions ongoing. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area from French Frigate Shoals to
Maro Reef by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolo’s track will produce 3 to 6
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau through Thursday. This
rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially
in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 300232
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 164.2W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 270SW 250NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 164.2W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 164.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.4N 164.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 164.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.6N 165.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.7N 166.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.9N 166.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 23.1N 168.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 23.8N 173.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 25.3N 179.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 164.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 292037
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026

Nolo's satellite appearance continues to degrade this morning as it
succumbs to strong vertical wind shear. Drier air has also started
to entrain into the inner core of the system, eroding southern
portions of the circulation and causing cloud tops to warm.
Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, with the latest
Current Intensity (CI) estimates from JTWC and UW-CIMSS ranging
between 75 and 90 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and
these estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt for this
advisory.

Nolo has continued to slow down and is moving northward, or 360/7
kt. A continued northward motion with a decreasing forward speed is
expected through tonight. In about 24 h, the system is forecast to
decelerate further as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level
trough. Following this interaction, a mid-level ridge is expected to
build to the northwest of Nolo, resulting in a sharp westward turn.
There continue to be along-track differences among the track
guidance. The better-performing HCCA and Google DeepMind (GDMI)
models are slower than the global models and depict a much slower
turn and subsequent re-acceleration. Toward the end of the forecast
period, Nolo is expected to move generally westward across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. The latest NHC track
forecast has once again been slowed down through 72 h and trends
toward the latest HCCA and GDMI aids.

The moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue
impacting Nolo for the next 36-48 h or so, with dry mid-level air
also entraining into the circulation. This should result in a steady
weakening trend, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm
during that time. The shear is expected to relax in 48 to 60 h.
Although the system remains over warm sea surface temperatures, the
dry mid-level environment may inhibit the rate of re-strengthening.
The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends, showing
steady weakening in the short term before the system re-strengthens
into a hurricane by the end of the forecast period. This prediction
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 21.3N 164.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 22.1N 164.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 22.4N 164.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 22.4N 165.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 22.5N 165.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 22.7N 166.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 23.0N 167.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 23.4N 171.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 24.9N 178.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 292036
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 164.2W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings may be required for additional
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later
this week.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located
near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 164.2 West. Nolo is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). On the forecast track, the
center of Nolo will remain well southwest and west of the main
Hawaiian Islands. Nolo will continue to move northward across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument today. On Wednesday, Nolo
will slow significantly and turn toward the west, then continue
generally westward through the latter part of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady weakening is forecast over the next couple of days,
followed by some re-intensification during the latter part of this
week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Wednesday,
with tropical storm conditions ongoing. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolo’s track will produce 3 to 6
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau through Thursday. This
rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially
in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 292035
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 164.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 164.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 164.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.1N 164.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.4N 164.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.4N 165.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.5N 165.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.7N 166.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.0N 167.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 23.4N 171.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.9N 178.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 120NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 164.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 291746
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM HST TUE SEP 29 2026

...NOLO BRINGING DANGEROUS CONDITIONS TO THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 164.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 164.2 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY, NOLO
WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY, AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST, AND CONTINUE
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
FOLLOWED BY SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS
WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES (220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB (28.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BY WEDNESDAY,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ONGOING.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS EAST OF NOLOA S TRACK WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS KAUAI AND NIIHAU THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO WILL AFFECT SOUTH- AND WEST-FACING
SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING
ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 291446
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026

Nolo is experiencing the effects of moderate-to-strong vertical
wind shear, as its convective organization has continued to degrade
this morning. The deep ring of convection has collapsed, and cloud
tops have warmed. Subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates from JTWC, HFO, and UW-CIMSS have continued to decrease,
now ranging between 95 and 102 kt. Based on the degrading satellite
appearance, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this
advisory. A scatterometer pass that arrived shortly after the
previous advisory was helpful in refining the initial wind radii.

The system has slowed down since the previous advisory and has
turned more northward, with an estimated initial motion of 355/8 kt.
A continued northward motion with a decreasing forward speed is
anticipated today. In about 24 h, the system is forecast to
decelerate significantly as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level
trough. Following this interaction, a mid-level ridge is expected to
build to the northwest of Nolo, resulting in a sharp westward turn.
There continue to be along-track differences among the guidance.
The better performing HCCA and Google DeepMind models are slower
than the global models and depict a much slower turn and
re-acceleration. Towards the end of the forecast period, Nolo is
expected to move generally westward across the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument. The latest NHC track forecast has been
slowed down and shifted slightly to the left of the previous,
trending toward the GDMI and HCCA aids.

Moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue
impacting Nolo for the next 48 hours or so, with dry mid-level air
also entraining into the circulation. This should result in a steady
weakening trend, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm
during that time. The shear is expected to relax in about 48 to 60 h
while the system remains over warm sea surface temperatures.
However, the dry mid-level environment may inhibit the rate of
restrengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these
trends, showing steady weakening in the short term before the system
restrengthens back into a hurricane by the end of the forecast
period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 20.5N 164.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 21.7N 164.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 22.3N 164.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 22.2N 165.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 22.0N 165.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 22.3N 166.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 22.6N 167.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 23.0N 169.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 23.9N 175.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 291445
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 164.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 164.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 164.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.7N 164.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.3N 164.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.2N 165.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.0N 165.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.3N 166.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.6N 167.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 23.0N 169.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 23.9N 175.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 164.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 291145
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM HST Tue Sep 29 2026

...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 164.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch may be required for additional portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 164.0 West. Nolo is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). On the forecast track, the
center of Nolo will remain well southwest and west of the main
Hawaiian Islands. Nolo will continue to move northward across the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument today. On Wednesday, Nolo
will slowly turn toward the west, and continue generally westward
through the latter part of the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nolo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast over the next couple of
days, followed by some re-intensification during the latter part of
this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Wednesday,
with tropical storm conditions likely starting later today.

RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolo’s track will produce 3 to 6
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau through Thursday. This
rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially
in areas of steep terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will continue to affect
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days. These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying
atolls, especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 290851
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026

Hurricane Nolo remains a 100 kt major hurricane for now, in
agreement with the objective and subjective satellite intensity
estimates. The cyclone continues to endure moderate to strong
vertical wind shear, a consequence of an approaching mid- to
upper-level trough located to its northwest. An RCM-3 Synthetic
Aperture Radar (SAR) overpass from around 0455 UTC informed the
present analysis of the wind radii and provided a helpful center
fix.

The cyclone is now moving to the north-northwest at 330/13 kt. A
more northward motion is expected through Tuesday in response to the
mid- to upper-level trough. By Wednesday, Nolo is forecast to slow
down dramatically as it interacts with and ultimately merges with
the trough. Significant along-track uncertainty remains beyond 36
hr. The differences in forward motion depend largely on how quick
Nolo completes the merger with the trough and the strength of a
mid-level ridge that will build to the northwest. By the latter part
of this week, the mid-level ridge should steer the system generally
westward and nearly parallel to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands
within the Papahanaumokuakea National Monument. The track forecast
blends the previous one toward the latest HCCA and GDM guidance, and
attempts to reconcile these many complicated steering features.

Vertical wind shear is expected to increase even further, and this
should continue to ventilate Nolo with dry and stable air over the
next couple of days. The new intensity forecast shows Nolo weakening
to a tropical storm by 48 hr, though this could happen sooner.
Beyond 60 hr, Nolo is forecast to re-intensify as the vertical wind
shear subsides, but dry mid-level atmospheric conditions could limit
the pace and magnitude of intensification. The intensity forecast is
at the upper-end of the guidance envelope at 12 hr due to recent
trends in infrared satellite imagery, and after that time lies
within the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 20.0N 164.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 21.3N 164.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 22.5N 164.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 22.7N 164.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 22.6N 165.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 22.7N 166.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 23.1N 167.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 23.4N 168.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 24.1N 174.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Mahoney


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 290849
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST MON SEP 28 2026

...CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE NOLO ENTERS THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...
...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS
OF THE MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 164.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BY TUESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 290849
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 164.3W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 164.3W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 164.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.3N 164.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 164.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 95SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.7N 164.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.6N 165.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.7N 166.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 290543
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026

...NOLO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS BEGINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 164.2W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch may be required for additional portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 164.2 West. Nolo is moving
toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a turn toward
the north is expected tomorrow. On the forecast track, the center of
Nolo will remain well southwest and west of the main Hawaiian
Islands. Nolo will approach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nolo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast over the next couple of
days, followed by some re-intensification during the latter part of
this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Wednesday,
with tropical storm conditions likely by tomorrow.

RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolo’s track will produce 3 to 6
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau between Tuesday and Thursday.
This rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will be affecting the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument. These large waves will
likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls, especially from French
Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 290422

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 29.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 45.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2026 0 26.0N 45.4W 1013 24
1200UTC 29.09.2026 12 24.8N 47.1W 1012 23
0000UTC 30.09.2026 24 23.7N 48.9W 1012 23
1200UTC 30.09.2026 36 23.2N 51.3W 1012 25
0000UTC 01.10.2026 48 23.2N 53.3W 1013 28
1200UTC 01.10.2026 60 23.8N 55.4W 1013 28
0000UTC 02.10.2026 72 24.5N 56.8W 1014 26
1200UTC 02.10.2026 84 25.4N 58.4W 1013 27
0000UTC 03.10.2026 96 26.3N 59.5W 1012 28
1200UTC 03.10.2026 108 27.4N 60.2W 1012 30
0000UTC 04.10.2026 120 28.6N 60.4W 1011 33
1200UTC 04.10.2026 132 30.2N 60.6W 1010 36
0000UTC 05.10.2026 144 31.7N 61.3W 1010 32
1200UTC 05.10.2026 156 33.6N 61.2W 1010 32
0000UTC 06.10.2026 168 35.2N 59.2W 1010 29

HURRICANE POLO ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 112.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2026 0 25.5N 112.9W 966 74
1200UTC 29.09.2026 12 27.4N 111.5W 992 46
0000UTC 30.09.2026 24 31.6N 106.6W 993 26
1200UTC 30.09.2026 36 36.1N 102.2W 997 23
0000UTC 01.10.2026 48 38.3N 100.7W 998 19
1200UTC 01.10.2026 60 38.0N 101.0W 1004 22
0000UTC 02.10.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 36.2N 48.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2026 0 36.2N 48.1W 1010 26
1200UTC 29.09.2026 12 34.9N 45.7W 1010 32
0000UTC 30.09.2026 24 34.2N 44.6W 1010 32
1200UTC 30.09.2026 36 34.4N 44.0W 1011 28
0000UTC 01.10.2026 48 34.8N 43.0W 1012 22
1200UTC 01.10.2026 60 35.3N 40.9W 1014 23
0000UTC 02.10.2026 72 36.0N 38.0W 1015 23
1200UTC 02.10.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 103.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2026 0 14.1N 103.0W 996 41
1200UTC 29.09.2026 12 14.9N 105.2W 994 38
0000UTC 30.09.2026 24 16.4N 107.0W 991 43
1200UTC 30.09.2026 36 17.7N 108.5W 988 51
0000UTC 01.10.2026 48 18.9N 109.3W 980 59
1200UTC 01.10.2026 60 19.5N 110.0W 976 59
0000UTC 02.10.2026 72 20.2N 110.5W 973 61
1200UTC 02.10.2026 84 20.5N 111.4W 971 60
0000UTC 03.10.2026 96 20.7N 112.2W 972 62
1200UTC 03.10.2026 108 20.7N 113.2W 972 57
0000UTC 04.10.2026 120 20.7N 114.6W 975 57
1200UTC 04.10.2026 132 20.4N 116.0W 978 51
0000UTC 05.10.2026 144 20.2N 117.6W 977 54
1200UTC 05.10.2026 156 19.7N 119.0W 978 59
0000UTC 06.10.2026 168 19.2N 120.2W 975 59

HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 163.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2026 0 18.2N 163.3W 943 97
1200UTC 29.09.2026 12 20.1N 164.2W 970 71
0000UTC 30.09.2026 24 21.9N 164.5W 968 75
1200UTC 30.09.2026 36 22.0N 164.9W 976 63
0000UTC 01.10.2026 48 21.9N 165.1W 981 59
1200UTC 01.10.2026 60 22.0N 166.3W 981 53
0000UTC 02.10.2026 72 22.2N 167.1W 980 49
1200UTC 02.10.2026 84 22.6N 167.8W 979 52
0000UTC 03.10.2026 96 22.8N 168.8W 977 50
1200UTC 03.10.2026 108 23.2N 170.5W 979 55
0000UTC 04.10.2026 120 23.9N 173.7W 976 58
1200UTC 04.10.2026 132 25.1N 177.5W 979 64
0000UTC 05.10.2026 144 26.6N 179.6E 979 66
1200UTC 05.10.2026 156 27.4N 177.2E 979 71
0000UTC 06.10.2026 168 27.7N 174.2E 978 72


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 290422


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 290244
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026

Hurricane Nolo is being disrupted by strong vertical wind shear. The
GPM GMI microwave imagery received earlier today showed some tilt
between the low- and mid-level vortex, in addition to erosion in
portions of the southern eyewall. The satellite presentation on Nolo
this evening shows evidence of this disrupted inner core, with the
eye filling in on both visible and infrared imagery. Subjective
intensity estimates from PHFO and PGTW and the objective estimates
from UW-CIMSS range from 110-127 kt. Based on the quick
deterioration of the cyclone on satellite imagery, the
intensity for this advisory is set to 110 kt.

The current forward motion of the hurricane is 315/11 kt, as the
cyclone continues to turn in response to an upper level trough
located to its northwest. A general northward motion is expected
through tomorrow. Thereafter, the upper level trough is expected to
merge with the hurricane. This will dramatically slow Nolo's forward
motion as it approaches the islands of the Papahanaumokuakea
National Monument. Later this week, a ridge is forecast to build
northwest of Nolo and begin to steer the system westward and nearly
parallel to the northwestern Hawaiian Islands within the monument.
The track forecast is largely an update of the previous one, follows
the latest HCCA and GDM guidance, and attempts to reconcile the many
complicated steering features.

The new intensity forecast shows a faster pace of weakening than the
previous forecast, and is nudged toward the latest HCCA and GDM
guidance. Vertical wind shear is expected to increase even more
through 72 hr, which could cause Nolo to weaken to tropical storm
strength during that time. Beyond 72 hr, the shear is forecast to
subside, and Nolo could re-intensify at a gradual pace due to dry
mid-level atmospheric conditions. The intensity forecast is within
the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 18.8N 163.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 20.2N 164.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 21.9N 164.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 22.6N 164.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 22.7N 164.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 01/1200Z 22.6N 165.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 22.8N 166.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 23.4N 167.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 23.8N 172.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Mahoney


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 290243
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Nolo Advisory Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026

...NOLO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT STARTING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 163.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to
French Frigate Shoals

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch may be required for additional portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nolo was located
near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 163.7 West. Nolo is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north
is expected tomorrow. On the forecast track, the center of Nolo will
remain well southwest and west of the main Hawaiian Islands. Nolo
will approach the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nolo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast over the next couple of
days, followed by some re-intensification during the latter part of
this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument by Wednesday,
with tropical storm conditions likely by tomorrow.

RAINFALL: Outer bands east of Nolo’s track will produce 3 to 6
inches of rain across Kauai and Niihau between Tuesday and Thursday.
This rainfall could produce areas of flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo will affect south- and west-facing
shores of the main Hawaiian Islands for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Large surf associated with Nolo will affect the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument beginning later today.
These large waves will likely inundate some of the low-lying atolls,
especially from French Frigate Shoals to Nihoa. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Mahoney


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 290244
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 163.7W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 120SE 210SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 163.7W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 163.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 164.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.9N 164.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.6N 164.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.7N 164.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 5SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.6N 165.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 22.8N 166.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 23.4N 167.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 23.8N 172.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 75SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 163.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 282348
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM HST MON SEP 28 2026

...NOLO HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...
...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT STARTING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 163.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.4 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO
WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT
WILL APPROACH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY FASTER WEAKENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES (240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB (27.55 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BY WEDNESDAY,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS EAST OF NOLOA S TRACK WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS KAUAI AND NIIHAU BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO WILL AFFECT SOUTH- AND WEST-FACING
SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BEGINNING LATER TODAY.
THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS,
ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 282049
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026

Westerly wind shear and increasing mid-level dry air are beginning
to take a toll on Nolo’s structure this morning. Recent visible and
infrared satellite imagery show a sharp gradient along the western
side of the cold cloud tops surrounding the eye, while cloud tops
are warming just east of the increasingly ragged eye. In addition,
recent GPM GMI microwave imagery suggests that the southeastern
portion of the eyewall may be beginning to open up. Recent
subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have also
decreased slightly, ranging from 123-127 kt. Given the degraded
satellite presentation and the lower intensity estimates, the
initial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory.

Nolo is beginning to turn toward the northwest as it moves along the
southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high centered
north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The hurricane is forecast to
turn toward the north on Tuesday as an intensifying upper-level low
approaches from the northwest. The track forecast becomes more
complex by midweek, as the strength and track of this low will play
a significant role in determining Nolo’s subsequent motion. A
stronger low would likely be less progressive and pull Nolo farther
north, while a weaker and more transient low would favor a faster
turn toward the west. Recent model guidance has trended toward the
latter solution, and this trend is reflected in the updated
forecast. The official NHC track forecast has therefore been
adjusted to the left of the previous forecast and is slightly slower
after 36 h, bringing it closer toward the latest HCCA and GDM
guidance.

A gradual weakening trend is expected over the next day or so as
Nolo encounters increasing westerly wind shear and cooler sea
surface temperatures. Beyond 24 h, the approaching upper-level low
is expected to produce significantly stronger shear, likely
resulting in more rapid weakening. Nolo could briefly fall below
hurricane strength around the middle of this week. Thereafter, as
the upper-level cyclone moves away from Nolo and its influence
diminishes, increasingly favorable upper-level winds and warmer
waters could support some restrengthening. The latest NHC forecast
is near the middle of the model intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 17.7N 163.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 19.0N 163.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 20.8N 164.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 22.0N 164.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 22.4N 164.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 22.5N 164.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 22.7N 165.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 23.2N 167.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 23.8N 171.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 282048
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST MON SEP 28 2026

...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT STARTING ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 163.1W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 163.1 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT WILL
APPROACH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY FASTER WEAKENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB (27.55 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BY WEDNESDAY,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUESDAY.

RAINFALL: OUTER BANDS EAST OF NOLOA S TRACK WILL PRODUCE 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS KAUAI AND NIIHAU BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO WILL AFFECT SOUTH- AND WEST-FACING
SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BEGINNING LATER TODAY.
THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS,
ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 282047
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 163.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 120SE 210SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 163.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 162.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.0N 163.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 164.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.0N 164.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.4N 164.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.5N 164.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.7N 165.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 23.2N 167.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 23.8N 171.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 163.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 281745
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM HST MON SEP 28 2026

...CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 162.8W
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 420 MI...670 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 281623

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 101.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2026 0 13.4N 101.3W 1000 38
0000UTC 29.09.2026 12 14.0N 103.4W 996 37
1200UTC 29.09.2026 24 14.9N 105.2W 994 40
0000UTC 30.09.2026 36 16.2N 107.3W 990 44
1200UTC 30.09.2026 48 17.3N 108.4W 986 53
0000UTC 01.10.2026 60 18.4N 109.7W 982 55
1200UTC 01.10.2026 72 18.9N 110.7W 978 55
0000UTC 02.10.2026 84 19.1N 111.5W 976 54
1200UTC 02.10.2026 96 19.3N 112.4W 978 50
0000UTC 03.10.2026 108 19.5N 113.2W 979 53
1200UTC 03.10.2026 120 19.6N 114.2W 982 46
0000UTC 04.10.2026 132 19.4N 115.0W 978 51
1200UTC 04.10.2026 144 19.2N 115.9W 975 51
0000UTC 05.10.2026 156 19.1N 117.0W 973 56
1200UTC 05.10.2026 168 18.8N 118.0W 975 56

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 44.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2026 0 27.3N 44.7W 1014 26
0000UTC 29.09.2026 12 26.0N 45.6W 1013 24
1200UTC 29.09.2026 24 24.8N 47.4W 1012 24
0000UTC 30.09.2026 36 23.9N 49.1W 1012 25
1200UTC 30.09.2026 48 23.5N 51.7W 1011 27
0000UTC 01.10.2026 60 23.4N 53.7W 1012 29
1200UTC 01.10.2026 72 24.2N 56.1W 1012 29
0000UTC 02.10.2026 84 24.9N 57.9W 1013 28
1200UTC 02.10.2026 96 25.8N 59.8W 1012 30
0000UTC 03.10.2026 108 26.5N 61.2W 1012 29
1200UTC 03.10.2026 120 27.5N 62.3W 1011 31
0000UTC 04.10.2026 132 28.6N 63.0W 1011 31
1200UTC 04.10.2026 144 29.8N 63.7W 1012 29
0000UTC 05.10.2026 156 30.9N 64.4W 1012 29
1200UTC 05.10.2026 168 32.9N 64.6W 1014 26

HURRICANE POLO ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 114.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2026 0 24.4N 114.0W 959 73
0000UTC 29.09.2026 12 25.8N 112.9W 971 65
1200UTC 29.09.2026 24 27.8N 111.1W 990 44
0000UTC 30.09.2026 36 32.2N 105.1W 996 24
1200UTC 30.09.2026 48 37.6N 102.0W 996 23
0000UTC 01.10.2026 60 39.4N 101.9W 995 32
1200UTC 01.10.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 36.6N 51.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2026 0 36.6N 51.4W 1013 29
0000UTC 29.09.2026 12 36.1N 48.5W 1011 26
1200UTC 29.09.2026 24 34.5N 46.6W 1011 28
0000UTC 30.09.2026 36 33.4N 45.6W 1012 30
1200UTC 30.09.2026 48 34.0N 44.6W 1013 29
0000UTC 01.10.2026 60 34.5N 43.8W 1013 22
1200UTC 01.10.2026 72 35.3N 41.9W 1015 23
0000UTC 02.10.2026 84 35.9N 39.8W 1015 23
1200UTC 02.10.2026 96 36.8N 36.8W 1015 26
0000UTC 03.10.2026 108 37.4N 36.8W 1016 22
1200UTC 03.10.2026 120 36.6N 36.4W 1017 22
0000UTC 04.10.2026 132 36.4N 36.4W 1017 18
1200UTC 04.10.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 162.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2026 0 17.1N 162.0W 963 77
0000UTC 29.09.2026 12 18.3N 163.9W 969 72
1200UTC 29.09.2026 24 19.9N 164.5W 971 67
0000UTC 30.09.2026 36 21.8N 164.4W 968 69
1200UTC 30.09.2026 48 22.3N 164.5W 979 58
0000UTC 01.10.2026 60 22.5N 164.7W 985 53
1200UTC 01.10.2026 72 22.8N 166.5W 981 58
0000UTC 02.10.2026 84 22.4N 167.2W 978 52
1200UTC 02.10.2026 96 22.9N 167.8W 979 56
0000UTC 03.10.2026 108 23.4N 169.0W 978 54
1200UTC 03.10.2026 120 23.4N 171.0W 976 56
0000UTC 04.10.2026 132 23.8N 173.8W 977 54
1200UTC 04.10.2026 144 25.1N 177.5W 981 55
0000UTC 05.10.2026 156 26.3N 179.0E 977 59
1200UTC 05.10.2026 168 27.4N 175.9E 982 58

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.6N 136.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2026 0 13.6N 136.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 29.09.2026 12 14.3N 134.4W 1003 30
1200UTC 29.09.2026 24 14.8N 132.5W 1002 28
0000UTC 30.09.2026 36 15.1N 131.2W 1002 26
1200UTC 30.09.2026 48 15.6N 130.7W 1004 23
0000UTC 01.10.2026 60 15.9N 130.1W 1004 23
1200UTC 01.10.2026 72 15.7N 129.7W 1005 19
0000UTC 02.10.2026 84 15.6N 129.3W 1005 21
1200UTC 02.10.2026 96 15.9N 129.2W 1006 18
0000UTC 03.10.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281623


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 281453
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026

Increasing westerly wind shear is beginning to affect the structure
of Nolo this morning. Recent infrared satellite imagery indicate a
slight increase in asymmetric convection, with a decrease in
convection to the north and east of the well-defined and very warm
eye, and a larger area of convection to the south and west. Recent
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 6.5/127 kt, while
objective intensity estimates range from 121-133 kt. However, Nolo
continues to have an annular structure, so the intensity has likely
changed little since the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial
intensity is maintained at 135 kt for this advisory.

Nolo is moving toward the west-northwest, or 290/11 kt, along the
southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered well north of the
Hawaiian Islands. A turn toward the northwest then north is expected
through the next 36-48 h as an intensifying upper-level low
approaches the hurricane from the northwest. The track forecast
becomes more complicated around midweek, as the progression and
strength of the aforementioned upper-low will influence the motion
of Nolo. A stronger low will likely be less progressive and pull
Nolo farther north, while a weaker and more transient low will
result in a faster turn toward the west. The latest NHC forecast
follows the latter scenario and calls for Nolo to turn back toward
the west-northwest then west around midweek, with this general
motion continuing into this weekend. This is consistent with the
previous forecast advisory, and is similar to the HCCA and Google
DeepMind solutions.

The major hurricane has likely peaked in strength while over very
warm waters and beneath favorable upper-level winds. However,
increasing wind shear due to the aforementioned upper-level low
should support gradual weakening by tonight, followed by more rapid
weakening beyond 24 h through the middle of the week. In 4-5 days,
the models suggest a more favorable upper-level flow pattern, which
could allow for some re-strengthening. The latest NHC forecast
remains near the upper-end of the model intensity guidance, though
has been lowered slightly at all forecast times.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.1N 162.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.3N 163.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.0N 163.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 21.7N 164.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 22.6N 164.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 22.8N 164.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 23.1N 165.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 23.7N 167.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 24.1N 170.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 281452
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST MON SEP 28 2026

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 162.3W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 162.3 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT WILL APPROACH
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN
TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY FASTER WEAKENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB (27.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BY WEDNESDAY,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY BY TUESDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO WILL AFFECT SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL AFFECT THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BEGINNING LATER TODAY. THESE LARGE WAVES
WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS, ESPECIALLY FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 281143
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM HST MON SEP 28 2026

...MAJOR HURRICANE NOLO PASSING SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 161.9W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 280849
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Sun Sep 27 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that Nolo has continued to intensify,
with a symmetrical Central Dense Overcast of very cold cloud tops
surrounding the 30 n mi diameter eye. The eye temperatures have
warmed to as much as 21 deg C. The advisory intensity is set at
135 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC
and PHFO Honolulu and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants of the
hurricane. Geostationary and microwave imagery show that Nolo
continues to lack outer convective banding features, and is
therefore maintaining the characteristics of an annular hurricane.

Nolo continues to move west-northwestward at around 290/10 kt while
being steered by the flow on the south side of a mid-tropospheric
ridge. A mid- to upper-level cyclone located about 10 degrees to
the northwest of the hurricane is expected to induce a turn toward
the northwest and north within the next 36 hours. Then, Nolo should
decelerate and turn westward while moving around the circulation of
the cyclone and merging with it. A mid-level ridge building to the
northwest of Nolo should eventually cause it to turn westward late
in the forecast period. The official track forecast is very similar
to the one from the previous advisory, and remains in good agreement
with the HCCA and Google DeepMind guidance.

The hurricane has been situated in an environment that is quite
conducive for strengthening, with low vertical wind shear and
sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures. This regime should
persist for at least the next 12 hours or so. However, the global
models indicate that vertical shear over Nolo should increase
substantially by Tuesday. Therefore, the hurricane should begin
weakening within 24 hours or so. Nonetheless, Nolo's annular
structure could result in a slower rate of weakening than seen in
typical hurricanes. In 4-5 days, the models suggest a more
favorable upper-level flow pattern, which could result in some
re-strengthening. The official intensity forecast remains at the
high end of the model guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 16.5N 161.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 17.5N 162.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 19.2N 163.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.0N 163.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 22.4N 163.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 30/1800Z 22.8N 163.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 23.0N 164.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 23.6N 166.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 24.0N 169.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 280846
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST SUN SEP 27 2026

...NOLO COULD SOON REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 161.3W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT ON MONDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 161.3 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY, WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT
WILL APPROACH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED, AND NOLO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON
MONDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY LATE
MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB (27.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BY WEDNESDAY, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO WILL BE AFFECTING SOUTH-FACING
SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BEGINNING ON MONDAY.
THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS,
ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 280846
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC MON SEP 28 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 161.3W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 150SE 180SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 161.3W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 160.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 162.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.2N 163.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.0N 163.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.4N 163.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 163.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.0N 164.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 23.6N 166.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 24.0N 169.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 161.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 280548
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM HST SUN SEP 27 2026

...NOLO NOW HAS 150 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 160.8W
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.8 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT, WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT WILL APPROACH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES (240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 934 MB (27.58 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BY WEDNESDAY, WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO WILL BE AFFECTING SOUTH-FACING
SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL AFFECT THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BEGINNING ON MONDAY.
THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS,
ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 280232
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sun Sep 27 2026

The satellite presentation of Nolo has continued to improve this
afternoon. Recent visible and infrared imagery reveals a thick,
symmetric ring of deep, cold convection completely surrounding a
warm eye, with a temperature nearing 20C. Furthermore, the cyclone
is largely devoid of outer rainbands, suggesting that Nolo is taking
on the characteristics of an annular hurricane, which is further
supported by recent AMSR3 microwave images. Subjective Dvorak and
objective intensity estimates have steadily risen during the past
several hours. The latest subjective Dvorak classifications from the
JTWC and HFO are T6.0 and T6.5, respectively, while objective
estimates from UW-CIMSS currently range from 113 to 131 kt. Based on
a blend of these estimates and recent satellite trends, the initial
intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/10
kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is forecast tonight, and
this general motion should continue through Tuesday as Nolo is
steered between a mid- to upper-level low to its northwest and a
mid-level ridge located north of the main Hawaiian Islands. During
the latter half of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to
turn back toward the west as it moves around the northern periphery
of the low. The latest official track forecast is very similar to
the previous advisory and lies in agreement with the HCCA and Google
DeepMind aids.

Nolo is currently taking advantage of a highly favorable environment
characterized by low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface
temperatures. This should allow for continued strengthening in the
short term, with internal dynamics such as eyewall replacement
cycles likely dictating any intensity fluctuations over the next 24
to 36 hours. Beyond that time, vertical wind shear is forecast to
increase as the system interacts with the upper-level low, which
should induce a weakening trend. However, given its developed
annular structure, Nolo will likely be more resilient to this
adverse environment and decay at a slower rate than typical tropical
cyclones. Toward the end of the forecast period, the shear is
expected to decrease. Because the cyclone will remain over warm
SSTs, some restrengthening is possible by day 4 or 5, although there
is some bifurcation in the models at that time. To account for both
the recent strengthening trend and the historically slow decay rate
of annular hurricanes, the official intensity forecast remains near
or above the high end of the guidance suite in the short term, then
falling closer towards the HCCA intensity aid in the middle to
latter part of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 16.3N 160.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 16.9N 161.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 18.3N 163.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 20.2N 163.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 21.9N 163.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 22.8N 163.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 23.0N 164.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 23.7N 166.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 24.3N 168.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 280231
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SUN SEP 27 2026

...NOLO STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 160.3W
ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 160.3 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 280231
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 160.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 150SE 180SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 160.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 159.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.9N 161.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.3N 163.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 163.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.9N 163.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N 163.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 272349
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM HST SUN SEP 27 2026

...NOLO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 159.8W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 159.8 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TONIGHT, AND WILL CONTINUE
THAT MOTION THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BUT WILL APPROACH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES (240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB (28.00 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT BY WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL THE HAWAIIAN
ISLAND THROUGH TODAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE AFFECTING EXPOSED EAST- AND
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL AFFECT
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BEGINNING ON MONDAY.
THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS,
ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 272052 CCA
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 27 2026

Corrected typo in the first paragraph

The inner core of Nolo has continued to show signs of improvement,
as the eye has become better defined over the last several hours.
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found flight level winds
around 106 kt, which supports surface winds around 95 kt. In
addition, the aircraft found that the pressure has been decreasing
over the course the flight. A dropsonde into the northern eyewall
observed a 500 m layer average of 106 kt. Furthermore, the objective
intensity estimates are in the range of 87-119 kt. Based on the
current data, the initial intensity has been raised to 100 kt for
this advisory.

The cyclone is moving mainly westward or 280/10 kt. Nolo is expected
to continue to move on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge
for the next 24 h or so. Afterwards, the hurricane will turn
northwestward due to the influence of a mid- to upper-level low.
Near the end of the forecast period, Nolo should then turn toward
the west again, as Nolo moves around the northern side of the low.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one just some
minor adjustments based on the HCCA and the GDMI forecast aids.

Nolo is expected to remain in a favorable environment with low wind
shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. This should allow for
continued intensification for the next 24 hours. After 36-48 h,
gradual weakening is expected as the SHIPS model outputs indicate
that wind shear will increase in the 36-96 h period due to the
interaction with the upper-level low. Beyond 96 h, the wind shear
may relax again and this could allow some restrengthening. The NHC
intensity forecast is still on the high end of the guidance
envelope, however it is in line with the HCCA forecast aid in the
short term.


Key Messages:

1. Strong and gusty winds are expected across the main Hawaiian
Islands through today.

2. Large and damaging waves with high surf are likely along portions
of the east-ward facing beaches of the main Hawaiian Islands through
today. Southward facing beaches are likely to see increased swell
and surf during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 16.2N 159.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 16.5N 160.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 17.6N 162.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 19.3N 163.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 21.0N 163.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 22.1N 163.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 22.5N 164.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 22.8N 166.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 23.2N 168.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Katz/Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 272034
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 27 2026

The inner core of Nolo has continued to show signs of improvement,
as the eye has become better defined over the last several hours.
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found flight level winds
around 106 kt, which supports surface winds around 95 kt. In
addition, the aircraft found that the pressure has been decreasing
over the course the flight. A dropsonde into the northern eyewall
observed a 500 m layer average of 106 kt. Furthermore, the objective
intensity estimates are in the range of 87-119 kt. Based on the
current data, the initial intensity has been raised to 95 kt for
this advisory.

The cyclone is moving mainly westward or 280/10 kt. Nolo is expected
to continue to move on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge
for the next 24 h or so. Afterwards, the hurricane will turn
northwestward due to the influence of a mid- to upper-level low.
Near the end of the forecast period, Nolo should then turn toward
the west again, as Nolo moves around the northern side of the low.
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one just some
minor adjustments based on the HCCA and the GDMI forecast aids.

Nolo is expected to remain in a favorable environment with low wind
shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. This should allow for
continued intensification for the next 24 hours. After 36-48 h,
gradual weakening is expected as the SHIPS model outputs indicate
that wind shear will increase in the 36-96 h period due to the
interaction with the upper-level low. Beyond 96 h, the wind shear
may relax again and this could allow some restrengthening. The NHC
intensity forecast is still on the high end of the guidance
envelope, however it is in line with the HCCA forecast aid in the
short term.


Key Messages:

1. Strong and gusty winds are expected across the main Hawaiian
Islands through today.

2. Large and damaging waves with high surf are likely along portions
of the east-ward facing beaches of the main Hawaiian Islands through
today. Southward facing beaches are likely to see increased swell
and surf during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 16.2N 159.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 16.5N 160.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 17.6N 162.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 19.3N 163.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 21.0N 163.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 22.1N 163.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 22.5N 164.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 22.8N 166.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 23.2N 168.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Katz/Kelly


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 272033
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SUN SEP 27 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 159.3W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 159.3 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT, WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT WILL APPROACH
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NOLO IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY BY MONDAY.
IN ABOUT 2 DAYS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS
966 MB (28.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT BY WEDNESDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL THE HAWAIIAN
ISLAND THROUGH TODAY.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE AFFECTING EXPOSED EAST- AND
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. LARGE SURF ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO WILL AFFECT
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT BEGINNING ON MONDAY.
THESE LARGE WAVES WILL LIKELY INUNDATE SOME OF THE LOW-LYING ATOLLS,
ESPECIALLY FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO NIHOA. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 272033
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 159.3W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 150SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 159.3W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 158.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 160.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.6N 162.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.3N 163.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.0N 163.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.1N 163.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 164.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.8N 166.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 23.2N 168.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 159.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/KELLY=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 123.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2026 0 22.3N 123.4W 993 37
0000UTC 28.09.2026 12 22.8N 123.0W 999 34
1200UTC 28.09.2026 24 22.8N 122.3W 1002 29
0000UTC 29.09.2026 36 21.9N 121.6W 1003 26
1200UTC 29.09.2026 48 20.9N 121.3W 1005 25
0000UTC 30.09.2026 60 20.0N 121.6W 1006 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 72 19.3N 122.3W 1007 19
0000UTC 01.10.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.8N 98.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2026 0 12.8N 98.3W 1006 27
0000UTC 28.09.2026 12 12.8N 99.8W 1004 26
1200UTC 28.09.2026 24 12.5N 101.0W 1002 31
0000UTC 29.09.2026 36 14.0N 102.9W 1000 34
1200UTC 29.09.2026 48 15.2N 105.5W 1000 33
0000UTC 30.09.2026 60 16.4N 107.6W 997 34
1200UTC 30.09.2026 72 17.7N 109.2W 996 47
0000UTC 01.10.2026 84 19.2N 110.5W 994 44
1200UTC 01.10.2026 96 19.5N 111.8W 993 46
0000UTC 02.10.2026 108 19.1N 112.4W 993 39
1200UTC 02.10.2026 120 19.1N 112.7W 994 39
0000UTC 03.10.2026 132 19.2N 113.7W 993 41
1200UTC 03.10.2026 144 19.1N 113.5W 991 42
0000UTC 04.10.2026 156 19.2N 113.9W 989 42
1200UTC 04.10.2026 168 19.7N 114.2W 989 42

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 44.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2026 0 29.5N 44.0W 1015 21
0000UTC 28.09.2026 12 28.7N 43.9W 1015 24
1200UTC 28.09.2026 24 27.7N 44.4W 1015 21
0000UTC 29.09.2026 36 26.7N 45.3W 1013 23
1200UTC 29.09.2026 48 26.0N 46.8W 1012 23
0000UTC 30.09.2026 60 25.2N 48.4W 1012 25
1200UTC 30.09.2026 72 24.9N 50.5W 1012 26
0000UTC 01.10.2026 84 24.8N 52.1W 1012 27
1200UTC 01.10.2026 96 25.2N 53.6W 1012 28
0000UTC 02.10.2026 108 26.0N 54.6W 1013 29
1200UTC 02.10.2026 120 27.0N 55.3W 1012 28
0000UTC 03.10.2026 132 28.0N 55.2W 1012 28
1200UTC 03.10.2026 144 28.9N 54.7W 1012 27
0000UTC 04.10.2026 156 29.4N 54.4W 1012 27
1200UTC 04.10.2026 168 29.8N 54.4W 1013 26

HURRICANE POLO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 113.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2026 0 20.6N 113.8W 940 91
0000UTC 28.09.2026 12 22.8N 114.2W 960 70
1200UTC 28.09.2026 24 24.5N 113.9W 964 69
0000UTC 29.09.2026 36 26.0N 112.5W 968 65
1200UTC 29.09.2026 48 28.0N 110.8W 989 40
0000UTC 30.09.2026 60 32.2N 105.1W 995 24
1200UTC 30.09.2026 72 37.5N 101.2W 992 27
0000UTC 01.10.2026 84 39.5N 100.7W 994 26
1200UTC 01.10.2026 96 35.6N 101.1W 1005 23
0000UTC 02.10.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 157.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2026 0 16.4N 157.8W 970 72
0000UTC 28.09.2026 12 16.9N 160.0W 975 62
1200UTC 28.09.2026 24 17.6N 162.3W 976 67
0000UTC 29.09.2026 36 19.0N 163.7W 976 64
1200UTC 29.09.2026 48 20.6N 164.6W 977 61
0000UTC 30.09.2026 60 22.2N 164.7W 975 61
1200UTC 30.09.2026 72 22.2N 165.2W 983 65
0000UTC 01.10.2026 84 22.0N 165.9W 987 58
1200UTC 01.10.2026 96 21.9N 167.9W 986 52
0000UTC 02.10.2026 108 21.6N 169.2W 983 44
1200UTC 02.10.2026 120 21.3N 170.1W 983 49
0000UTC 03.10.2026 132 21.0N 171.1W 982 56
1200UTC 03.10.2026 144 20.6N 173.1W 979 55
0000UTC 04.10.2026 156 20.4N 175.7W 973 65
1200UTC 04.10.2026 168 20.9N 179.0W 973 70

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.7N 136.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2026 24 13.5N 135.4W 1004 32
0000UTC 29.09.2026 36 14.5N 133.9W 1003 29
1200UTC 29.09.2026 48 15.5N 132.7W 1003 31
0000UTC 30.09.2026 60 15.9N 131.6W 1002 30
1200UTC 30.09.2026 72 16.2N 131.6W 1003 30
0000UTC 01.10.2026 84 16.9N 131.9W 1003 28
1200UTC 01.10.2026 96 17.0N 132.3W 1004 26
0000UTC 02.10.2026 108 16.9N 133.0W 1004 25
1200UTC 02.10.2026 120 16.9N 134.2W 1006 22
0000UTC 03.10.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271622


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (NOLO) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (NOLO) WARNING NR 029
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 16.2N 157.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2N 157.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.3N 159.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.0N 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.4N 162.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.3N 163.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.8N 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.4N 164.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.6N 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.0N 168.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 158.4W.
27SEP26. HURRICANE 15E (NOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
271200Z IS 969 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16E (ODALYS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO HURRICANE 17E (POLO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 271500
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Sep 27 2026

Nolo's structure has continued to improve over the last several
hours with the eye becoming better defined as as cloud tops have
cooled around the center of the hurricane. An Air Force Reserve Unit
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is sill investigating Nolo at this time
and so far have found peak flight level winds around 92 kt, which
would support for an intensity around 85 kt. There was also a
dropsonde in the northwest eyewall that observed a 500 m layer
average of 104 kt. In addition, the objective intensity estimates
are in the range of 87-109 kt. With the current improvement in the
stucture of Nolo, the lowering minimum pressure observed with the
aircraft, and assuming higher flight-level winds exist in the north
eyewall where the aircraft has not yet sampled, the initial
intensity has been raised to 90 kt for this advisory.

The hurricane is moving mainly west-southwestward or 250/9 kt. Nolo
is expected to continue to move on the southwestern side of a
mid-level ridge for the next day or so. Afterwards, the cyclone
should turn northwestward due to the influence of a mid- to
upper-level low. At the end of the forecast period, Nolo should
then turn back to the west again, as the hurricane rotated around
the northern side of the low. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one just some minor adjustments based on the
HCCA and the GDMI forecast aids.

The cyclone is expected to remain in a favorable environment with
low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. This should allow
for continued intensification for the next 24 hours, and Nolo is
forecast to become a major hurricane in the next 12 h and peak as a
category 4 hurricane. After 48 h, gradual weakening is expected
as the SHIPS model outputs indicate that wind shear will increase in
the 48-96 h period due to the interaction with the upper-level
low. Beyond 96 h, the wind shear may relax again and this could
allow some restrengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is still on
the high end of the guidance envelope, but slightly under the HCCA
and some of the hurricane regional models.


Key Messages:

1. Strong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian
Islands through today, and interests in the Hawaiian Islands should
continue to monitor the progress of Nolo.

2. Heavy rain and flooding threats from Nolo are diminishing across
the Hawaiian Islands as the storm continues to move to the
west-southwest away from the Islands.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big
Island's coastline through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 16.2N 158.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 16.3N 159.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.0N 161.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 18.4N 162.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 20.3N 163.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 21.8N 163.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.4N 164.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 22.6N 165.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 23.0N 168.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 271456
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SUN SEP 27 2026

...NOLO SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT MOVES WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 158.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SW OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT LATER TODAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED BY
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 158.3 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19
KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT, WITH THIS
GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT WILL APPROACH THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT EARLY THIS WEEK.

// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 271456
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 158.3W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 158.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 157.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.3N 159.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.0N 161.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 162.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.3N 163.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.8N 163.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.4N 164.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.6N 165.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.0N 168.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 158.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PHNC 271000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 15E (NOLO) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 15E (NOLO) WARNING NR 027
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 156.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 156.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.5N 158.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.0N 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.1N 162.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.8N 163.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.5N 163.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.5N 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.8N 165.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 22.8N 168.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 157.5W.
27SEP26. HURRICANE 15E (NOLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 206 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BRADSHAW AAF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 270600Z IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 16E (ODALYS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO HURRICANE 17E (POLO) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18E (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


0001186300
00001


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 270843
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 157.3W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 157.3W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 156.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.5N 158.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.0N 160.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.1N 162.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 163.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.5N 163.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 164.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 165.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 22.8N 168.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 157.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 270255
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Sat Sep 26 2026

Nolo is sending mixed signals about its organization in both
satellite and aircraft data at this time. In satellite imagery,
the central convective tops have cooled and become more symmetric
around the center. However, as this has happened, the eye has
become less distinct. In aircraft data, the Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter reported that the central pressure has dropped to
near 969 mb. However, the maximum 700 mb flight-level winds
reported so far are 77 kt, and the aircraft reported that the
eyewall was ragged. Given the conflicting signals, the initial
intensity is held at a somewhat uncertain 80 kt.

The hurricane is now moving faster toward the west or 265/7 kt. A
faster westward motion is expected for the next 24 h, keeping the
core of the hurricane well south of the main Hawaiian Islands.
After that, Nolo should turn northwestward between a ridge to the
east and a mid- to upper-level low to the northwest of Hawaii, with
this motion continuing until about the 72 h point. The dynamical
models suggest the circulation of Nolo may merge with this low,
with the resulting system continuing westward on the south side of
a mid-level ridge to the north. The new forecast track is similar
to the previous track and lies near the center of the track
guidance envelope.

Nolo is moving westward toward a pocket of higher ocean heat content
southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and the vertical wind shear is
forecast to weaken during the next 24-36 h. This should allow some
strengthening during this time, and the new intensity forecast
follows the regional hurricane models in forecasting Nolo to become
a major hurricane. It should be noted that while the SHIPS models
are not as bearish on intensification as they were last night, they
keep the system well below major hurricane strength. After 36 h,
Nolo should weaken due to increasing southwesterly shear caused by
the aforementioned upper low/trough. By 96-120 h, the GFS and
ECMWF forecast Nolo to merge with the upper-level low, but do so in
a way that leaves the tropical cyclone core more or less intact and
allow the storm to maintain its intensity. This is supported
by the regional hurricane models. Thus, the intensity forecast
keeps the system as a hurricane at those times. Overall, the new
intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast.

Now that Nolo is moving faster toward the west, the Tropical Storm
Warning has been discontinued for Hawaii County, and the Tropical
Storm Warning has been discontinued for Maui County.


Key Messages:

1. Nolo is moving westward away from the Big Island of Hawaii, and
the tropical cyclone watches and warnings for Hawaii have been
discontinued. However, strong and gusty winds are expected for all
of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend, and interests in the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Nolo.

2. Rain bands will continue through tonight across the Big Island
and Maui, though the showers are expected to gradually diminish in
intensity and frequency through Sunday. Additional areas of flooding
and mudslides will be possible, especially in areas of steep terrain
across the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island and
eastern Maui.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big
Island's coastline through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 16.7N 156.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 16.6N 157.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 16.9N 159.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 17.7N 161.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 19.2N 162.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 20.8N 163.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 22.4N 164.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 23.1N 166.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 23.1N 169.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 270254
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 156.5W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 156.5W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 156.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.6N 157.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 159.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.7N 161.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.2N 162.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.8N 163.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.4N 164.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.1N 166.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 23.1N 169.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 156.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 270254
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST SAT SEP 26 2026

...NOLO NOW MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...
...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND LARGE WAVES CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 156.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY,
AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR MAUI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT ON SUNDAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 156.5 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY BY MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB (28.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE CORE WINDS OF NOLO WILL
STAY TO THE SOUTH.

RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES. STORM TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN
INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. FOR EASTERN MAUI, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 4 TO
8 INCHES. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAS DIMINISHED,
YET WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
UPCOMING TIDE CYCLES DUE TO PERSISTENT, DANGEROUS WAVE ACTION.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE AFFECTING EXPOSED EAST- AND
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 262349
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM HST SAT SEP 26 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND LARGE WAVES CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 156.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 156.2 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H) AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN, A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY AND PEAK IN INTENSITY BY EARLY MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES (240 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 972 MB (28.70 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON PORTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND ARE POSSIBLE IN MAUI COUNTY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS 3 TO 6 INCHES, BRINGING
STORM TOTALS TO 10 TO 20 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR EASTERN MAUI, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 4 TO 8
INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAS DIMINISHED,
YET WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
UPCOMING TIDE CYCLES DUE TO PERSISTENT, DANGEROUS WAVE ACTION.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE AFFECTING EXPOSED EAST- AND
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 262049
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026

Nolo still appears to be struggling with intrusions of dry mid-level
air. After the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported the eyewall was
closed earlier this morning, recent vortex messages and radar images
from South Point (PHWA) show the eyewall is once again open to the
north. In addition, the minimum central pressure has risen slightly
to 977 mb, and the peak 700-mb flight-level wind measured by the
aircraft was 83 kt in the northwest quadrant. Based on these
developments, the initial intensity is adjusted to 80 kt.

Recent aircraft and radar fixes indicate the hurricane is now slowly
moving just south of due west (260/4 kt). A faster westward motion
away from the Big Island of Hawaii is expected during the next day
or so as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hawaii. An
upper-level trough currently to the northwest of the Hawaiian
Islands is expected to amplify early next week, which should cause
Nolo to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and
Tuesday. The models agree that Nolo will be clear of the main
Hawaiian Islands by the time it makes this turn. On day 5, Nolo is
forecast to resume a westward motion along the southern extent of a
building ridge over the central Pacific. This track forecast is
similar to but slightly faster than the previous prediction,
generally falling between the latest TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Nolo is moving westward toward a pocket of higher ocean heat content
southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, and the vertical wind shear is
forecast to weaken during the next 24-36 h. If the hurricane can
solidify a more resilient inner core, several skillful models
(including Google DeepMind, HAFS-A/B, and HCCA) suggest that Nolo
could intensify into a major hurricane on Sunday or Monday. An
alternate scenario is that continued dry air intrusions cause Nolo
to miss its window before increasingly southwesterly shear beyond 48
h induces a weakening trend. For now, the NHC intensity forecast
continues to favor the stronger GDMI and HCCA solutions, which both
have performed well for this event so far. Then, steady weakening
is anticipated during the 60-120 h forecast period, generally
following a blend of the HCCA and IVCN aids.

Now that Nolo is moving away from the Big Island of Hawaii, the
Hurricane Watch has been discontinued, but the Tropical Storm
Warning remains in effect for Hawaii County.


Key Messages:

1. Nolo has begun to move westward away from the Big Island of
Hawaii, where tropical storm conditions are occurring and will
continue into tonight, especially in areas of steep terrain.

2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big
Island and eastern Maui through the weekend. Significant,
life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in
areas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern portions of
the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser
rainfall totals are expected.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big
Island's coastline through the weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where
tropical-storm-force gusts are occurring in areas of steep terrain.
Strong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands
through the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.7N 156.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 16.7N 157.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 16.8N 158.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.2N 160.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 18.4N 162.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 20.2N 163.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 21.9N 164.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.2N 166.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 23.0N 168.8W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 262048
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 26 2026

...NOLO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND LARGE WAVES CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 156.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR HAWAII COUNTY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 156.0 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H) AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN, A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS PREDICTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE ON
SUNDAY AND PEAK IN INTENSITY BY EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER, STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
(240 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 977 MB (28.85
INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON PORTIONS OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND ARE POSSIBLE IN MAUI COUNTY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS 3 TO 6 INCHES, BRINGING
STORM TOTALS TO 10 TO 20 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25
INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR EASTERN MAUI, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 4 TO 8
INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAS DIMINISHED,
YET WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
UPCOMING TIDE CYCLES DUE TO PERSISTENT, DANGEROUS WAVE ACTION.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE AFFECTING EXPOSED EAST- AND
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 262047
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 156.0W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 150SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 156.0W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 155.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 157.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 158.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.2N 160.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.4N 162.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.2N 163.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.9N 164.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 166.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.0N 168.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 156.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 261457
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026

The radar and satellite presentation of Nolo has not improved since
the previous advisory. The eyewall has opened up at times on the
north side, and a pronounced dry slot is wrapping around the eastern
side of the circulation. Previous aircraft data indicated the
central pressure was holding steady around 975 mb. For now, the
initial intensity is held at a likely generous 90 kt, in best
agreement with recent UW-CIMSS D-PRINT and SATCON estimates. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has recently entered Nolo
and will provide some updated, in situ information about the
structure and intensity of the hurricane shortly.

Nolo continues to meander to the south of the Big Island of Hawaii.
Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level ridge building to the north of
the Hawaiian Islands, which should cause Nolo to begin moving
westward later this morning and accelerate westward through the
weekend. Early next week, a mid-level trough currently to the
northwest of Hawaii will dig southward and steer Nolo toward the
northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. Then, a
westward turn is anticipated on Wednesday as a mid-level ridge
builds to the north of Nolo. The track models are in good agreement
on keeping the core of Nolo well to the south and southwest of the
main Hawaiian Islands during the next several days. No major changes
were made to the NHC forecast, which remains close to the simple
consensus (TVCN) that has verified well for this event so far.

The hurricane is showing some ill effects of easterly shear and dry
air, and its lack of forward motion could be resulting in some
upwelling of cooler water. But as Nolo starts moving westward, the
vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken, and the SSTs are slightly
warmer along the track. So, strengthening is still anticipated
during the next couple of days, and the NHC forecast calls for Nolo
to become a major hurricane in 24 h. The near-term intensity
forecast still lies on the high end of the guidance, favoring the
HAFS-A, Google DeepMind, and HCCA solutions. After 48 h, increasing
southwesterly shear associated with the trough should induce a
weakening trend. This update shows a faster rate of weakening from
60-96 h, following the latest multi-model consensus trends.


Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii
today before turning westward and moving away from the island.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Big Island,
especially in areas of steep terrain, and hurricane conditions are
possible in those areas today.

2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big
Island and eastern Maui through the weekend. Significant,
life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in
areas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern portions of
the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser
rainfall totals are expected.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big
Island's coastline this weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where
gusts to tropical storm force are already occurring in some areas
of steep terrain. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and
gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 155.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.9N 156.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 16.8N 157.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 16.8N 159.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 17.7N 161.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 19.3N 163.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 21.0N 163.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.3N 165.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 23.5N 168.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 261456
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST SAT SEP 26 2026

...NOLO STILL MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND LARGE WAVES EXPECTED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 155.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.5 WEST. NOLO IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. A WESTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT
OR EARLY SUNDAY AND PEAK IN INTENSITY BY EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER,
SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 976 MB
(28.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AND HURRICANE-FORCE
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA BEGINNING TODAY. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN
MAUI COUNTY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF NOLO, STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 10 INCHES, BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 10 TO 20
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR EASTERN MAUI, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE AFFECTING EXPOSED EAST- AND
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 261455
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 155.5W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 155.5W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 155.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.9N 156.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.8N 157.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.8N 159.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.7N 161.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.3N 163.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.0N 163.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 23.3N 165.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 23.5N 168.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 155.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 261147
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM HST SAT SEP 26 2026

...NOLO STILL NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE
REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 155.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.3 WEST. NOLO IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. A WESTWARD MOTION WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT AND PEAK IN INTENSITY BY LATE SUNDAY. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES (220 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 975 MB (28.80
INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA BEGINNING TODAY. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN
MAUI COUNTY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF NOLO, STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT,
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR EASTERN
MAUI, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MAXIMUM RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE AFFECTING EXPOSED EAST- AND
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
WESTWARD AND BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 260851
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 23
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

Nolo's satellite and radar presentations have improved slightly
during the past few hours, with less erosion of the convection
noted on the eastern side of the circulation. However, an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating the storm
has only measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind of 85 kt, and
dropsonde data suggest the central pressure continues to oscillate
around 985 mb. The current intensity is maintained at 90 kt while
the plane continues its mission sampling the wind field.

Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Nolo's center has been
nearly stationary, or meandering, for the past 6 hours or so.
Mid-level high pressure is building north of the Hawaiian Islands,
which is expected to force Nolo to begin moving slowly westward
Saturday morning, and then gradually increase in speed over the
next couple of days. The mid-level trough that had been steering
Nolo northward is forecast to re-amplify west of the main Hawaiian
Islands by the end of the weekend, which should cause Nolo to turn
northwestward and north-northwestward by Monday and Tuesday. Nolo's
interaction with the mid-level trough/low could then cause the
storm to turn westward again by day 5. For the most part, the NHC
official forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, except a
little bit faster and to the west on day 5, and it lies close to
the HCCA consensus aid.

The shear that has been affecting Nolo is expected to diminish and
reach a minimum in about 36 to 48 hours. As a result, strengthening
is still forecast, with Nolo likely becoming a major hurricane on
Saturday and reaching a peak intensity by late Sunday. The NHC
forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance
envelope. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase substantially in
about 3 days when Nolo begins to interact with the trough, and that
should cause the hurricane to weaken and potentially become a
tropical storm by day 5.


Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii
through Saturday before turning westward and moving away from the
island. Tropical storm conditions are occurring on the Big Island,
especially in areas of steep terrain, and hurricane conditions are
possible in those areas on Saturday. Residents should follow
advice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do
so.

2. Periods of heavy rain are expected to expand across the Big
Island and eastern Maui tonight, then continue through the weekend.
Significant, life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible,
especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern
portions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii,
lesser rainfall totals are expected.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big
Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County, where
gusts to tropical storm force are already occurring in some areas
of steep terrain. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and
gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 16.9N 155.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 17.0N 155.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 16.8N 156.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 16.8N 158.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 17.2N 160.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 18.4N 162.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 20.1N 163.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 22.9N 165.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 23.3N 167.2W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 260850
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 155.3W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 155.3W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 155.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.0N 155.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.8N 156.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 158.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.2N 160.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.4N 162.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.1N 163.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 22.9N 165.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 23.3N 167.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 155.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 260553
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM HST FRI SEP 25 2026

...NOLO NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 155.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.2 WEST. NOLO IS NEARLY
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. A WESTWARD MOTION
WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS
WEEKEND, AND COULD FURTHER INTENSIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES (220 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE DROPSONDE DATA IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY EARLY SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA BEGINNING ON SATURDAY. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
OCCURRING IN MAUI COUNTY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF NOLO, STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT,
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR EASTERN
MAUI, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, MAXIMUM RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST-
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY, SPREADING WESTWARD
AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 260248
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

The satellite appearance of Nolo has changed little since the last
advisory. However, WSR-88D radar data from South Point, Hawaii,
indicates that the eye has contracted to a diameter of about 35 n
mi. While this suggests some strengthening has occurred, the
Doppler velocities have changed little since the last advisory.
Based on a blend of earlier aircraft data, satellite intensity
estimates, and radar velocities, the initial intensity is held at
90 kt. Shear analyses show that Nolo is being affected by 10-15 kt
of southeasterly shear, and this may be helping to advect dry air
into the circulation as seen in the radar data.

The initial motion is now 010/3. The guidance is in excellent
agreement that Nolo should stall and then turn westward in the next
12 h or so as mid- to upper-level ridge builds westward north of
the Hawaiian Islands. The track guidance has shifted southward
since the last advisory, and the first 60 h of the forecast track
are near the northern edge of the guidance envelope. After 60 h,
the hurricane is forecast to turn northward between the ridge and
the mid- to upper-level trough currently northwest of Hawaii. By
120 h, there is some divergence in the track guidance due to how
the tropical cyclone and the trough interact. For now, this portion
of the forecast track is similar to the previous track.

Due to the shear and the apparent dry air entrainment, the new
intensity forecast has a slower development rate during the first
12-24 h. From 24-72 h, the HAFS models continue to forecast Nolo to
become a major hurricane. However, the SHIPS models forecast no
strengthening whatsoever, and instead they forecast the cyclone to
slowly weaken through the forecast period. This portion of the
intensity forecast will lean towards the HAFS models, but it has
increasing uncertainty. After 72 h, weakening is expected due
to the forecast strong southwesterly shear east of the
aforementioned trough.


Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii
through Saturday before turning westward and moving away from the
island. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the Big
Island tonight with hurricane conditions possible on Saturday,
particularly in areas of steep terrain. Residents should follow
advice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do
so.

2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain and
flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain increases in
both coverage and intensity late today. Periods of heavy rain are
expected to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the
weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are
possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern
and southern portions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the
remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with
isolated flooding possible.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County where
tropical storm conditions are possible beginning on Saturday.
Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans
in place. Regardless of the exact track of Nolo, strong and gusty
winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the
weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 16.9N 155.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 17.1N 155.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.1N 156.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 16.9N 157.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 16.9N 159.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 17.7N 161.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 19.1N 163.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 22.0N 164.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 23.6N 165.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 260246
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 155.3W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 150SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 155.3W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 155.4W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 155.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 156.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.9N 157.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 159.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.7N 161.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 163.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 164.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.6N 165.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 155.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 252337
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM HST FRI SEP 25 2026

...EYE OF NOLO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ISLAND OF HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 155.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.4 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF
NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND, AND COULD FURTHER INTENSIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES (220 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 975 MB (28.80 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT IN
THE WARNING AREA, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY
SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR MAUI,
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST-
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY, SPREADING WESTWARD
AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 252056
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

The eye of Nolo is becoming better defined on South Point Hawaii
radar as well as on the latest satellite imagery, though is still a
bit ragged. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have found
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 106 kt, which generally
correspond to surface winds of about 95 kt using standard reduction
factors. However, the radius-of-maximum winds is pretty large,
some dropsonde data suggests it isn't quite mixing down at a normal
rate, and the central pressure is fairly high around 978 mb. These
factors point to a somewhat lower current wind speed, so the
initial intensity is set to 90 kt.

Nolo is gradually bending leftward, with the current motion
estimated at 015/4 kt. Nolo should slow down by late tonight and
start to drift westward on Saturday as the steering flow changes
from an upper-level trough over the far northwestern Hawaiian
Islands to a building ridge north of the main Hawaiian Islands.
This ridge is forecast to push Nolo faster to the west by Sunday
before eventually the cyclone is likely to turn more to the
north-northwest early next week due to another encounter with that
upper trough. The new model guidance is fairly close to the last
cycle, and no significant changes were made to the last NHC
forecast.

Some increase in shear, along with nearby dry air, could briefly
arrest Nolo's strengthening trend for the next day or so. After
that time, most of the guidance is showing Nolo becoming a very
strong hurricane with decreasing shear and increasing ocean heat
content. The new forecast is leveled off tonight, but then is
raised from the last one early next week, and I wouldn't be
surprised if Nolo ended up stronger in 2-3 days given the upper-
level wind pattern. Weakening is still expected by days 4 and 5 due
to forecast strong southwesterly shear east of the trough.

Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii
through Saturday before turning westward and moving away from the
island. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the Big
Island tonight with hurricane conditions possible on Saturday,
particularly in areas of steep terrain. Residents should follow
advice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do
so.

2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain and
flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain increases in
both coverage and intensity late today. Periods of heavy rain are
expected to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the
weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are
possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern
and southern portions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the
remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with
isolated flooding possible.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County where
tropical storm conditions are possible beginning on Saturday.
Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.5N 155.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.9N 155.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 17.1N 155.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.0N 157.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 16.8N 158.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 17.2N 160.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 18.4N 162.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 21.5N 164.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 23.5N 165.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 252055
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 25 2026

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AND DAMAGING WAVES
LIKELY ON THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII OVER THE WEEKEND FROM NOLO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 155.4W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 16.5
NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.4 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARDS THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS
WEEKEND, AND COULD FURTHER INTENSIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB (28.88 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT IN
THE WARNING AREA, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY
SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR MAUI,
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST-
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY, SPREADING WESTWARD
AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 251839
TCUCP2

Hurricane Nolo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
835 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

...NOLO STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...

Recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph (165
km/h), and the minimum central pressure has fallen to 978 mb
(28.88 inches).

This intensity change will be reflected in the next routine
forecast advisory package that will be issued by 1100 AM HST (2100
UTC).

SUMMARY OF 835 AM HST...1835 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 155.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 251623

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 22.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2026 0 15.1N 22.1W 1006 34
0000UTC 26.09.2026 12 16.9N 23.1W 1007 34
1200UTC 26.09.2026 24 20.3N 23.9W 1007 37
0000UTC 27.09.2026 36 20.2N 24.9W 1007 35
1200UTC 27.09.2026 48 20.1N 25.7W 1009 27
0000UTC 28.09.2026 60 20.0N 25.8W 1010 21
1200UTC 28.09.2026 72 20.4N 26.2W 1010 20
0000UTC 29.09.2026 84 20.6N 26.9W 1011 18
1200UTC 29.09.2026 96 21.1N 27.8W 1012 17
0000UTC 30.09.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 42.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2026 0 30.1N 42.4W 1014 31
0000UTC 26.09.2026 12 30.0N 43.2W 1014 27
1200UTC 26.09.2026 24 30.1N 43.6W 1014 28
0000UTC 27.09.2026 36 30.1N 43.6W 1015 24
1200UTC 27.09.2026 48 29.8N 43.4W 1014 23
0000UTC 28.09.2026 60 29.0N 43.2W 1015 24
1200UTC 28.09.2026 72 27.7N 43.3W 1014 26
0000UTC 29.09.2026 84 26.3N 44.7W 1013 26
1200UTC 29.09.2026 96 25.3N 46.5W 1011 25
0000UTC 30.09.2026 108 24.7N 48.7W 1011 27
1200UTC 30.09.2026 120 24.7N 50.8W 1011 28
0000UTC 01.10.2026 132 24.8N 52.7W 1011 29
1200UTC 01.10.2026 144 25.3N 54.4W 1011 28
0000UTC 02.10.2026 156 25.6N 55.4W 1012 32
1200UTC 02.10.2026 168 25.7N 56.4W 1011 31

HURRICANE ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 124.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2026 0 17.5N 124.0W 957 76
0000UTC 26.09.2026 12 18.0N 123.9W 976 56
1200UTC 26.09.2026 24 18.7N 123.9W 985 51
0000UTC 27.09.2026 36 19.7N 124.0W 990 44
1200UTC 27.09.2026 48 20.6N 124.2W 996 36
0000UTC 28.09.2026 60 20.9N 124.0W 999 37
1200UTC 28.09.2026 72 20.9N 123.6W 1002 33
0000UTC 29.09.2026 84 20.0N 123.1W 1003 28
1200UTC 29.09.2026 96 19.0N 122.6W 1005 23
0000UTC 30.09.2026 108 18.4N 122.5W 1005 22
1200UTC 30.09.2026 120 17.6N 122.5W 1006 19
0000UTC 01.10.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE POLO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 108.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2026 0 17.1N 108.1W 924 111
0000UTC 26.09.2026 12 17.2N 110.1W 937 96
1200UTC 26.09.2026 24 17.5N 111.9W 943 93
0000UTC 27.09.2026 36 18.8N 113.3W 948 87
1200UTC 27.09.2026 48 20.5N 114.2W 946 90
0000UTC 28.09.2026 60 22.4N 114.5W 954 79
1200UTC 28.09.2026 72 23.9N 114.2W 961 72
0000UTC 29.09.2026 84 25.0N 113.0W 970 69
1200UTC 29.09.2026 96 27.2N 111.3W 991 49
0000UTC 30.09.2026 108 32.2N 105.5W 993 27
1200UTC 30.09.2026 120 38.1N 103.5W 986 26
0000UTC 01.10.2026 132 35.9N 104.0W 994 21
1200UTC 01.10.2026 144 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 155.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2026 0 15.8N 155.5W 982 56
0000UTC 26.09.2026 12 16.3N 155.4W 981 58
1200UTC 26.09.2026 24 16.5N 155.1W 984 53
0000UTC 27.09.2026 36 16.1N 155.6W 985 46
1200UTC 27.09.2026 48 15.4N 156.8W 986 47
0000UTC 28.09.2026 60 15.0N 158.6W 982 54
1200UTC 28.09.2026 72 15.3N 160.2W 979 66
0000UTC 29.09.2026 84 16.2N 161.4W 973 68
1200UTC 29.09.2026 96 17.5N 162.0W 971 71
0000UTC 30.09.2026 108 18.8N 162.3W 977 64
1200UTC 30.09.2026 120 19.5N 161.9W 980 56
0000UTC 01.10.2026 132 20.5N 161.9W 981 62
1200UTC 01.10.2026 144 21.6N 162.6W 986 63
0000UTC 02.10.2026 156 23.1N 164.0W 994 44
1200UTC 02.10.2026 168 25.4N 165.2W 986 53

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 37.5N 72.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2026 24 37.5N 72.1W 989 48
0000UTC 27.09.2026 36 38.6N 71.6W 991 43
1200UTC 27.09.2026 48 39.7N 72.6W 990 39
0000UTC 28.09.2026 60 39.4N 73.8W 998 28
1200UTC 28.09.2026 72 40.2N 73.0W 1005 29
0000UTC 29.09.2026 84 40.9N 72.0W 1009 22
1200UTC 29.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.0N 97.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2026 48 12.0N 97.9W 1005 27
0000UTC 28.09.2026 60 12.7N 99.6W 1004 33
1200UTC 28.09.2026 72 13.0N 101.7W 1003 33
0000UTC 29.09.2026 84 13.9N 103.6W 999 38
1200UTC 29.09.2026 96 15.0N 105.9W 998 36
0000UTC 30.09.2026 108 16.2N 107.0W 995 43
1200UTC 30.09.2026 120 17.9N 108.6W 991 47
0000UTC 01.10.2026 132 18.9N 109.6W 986 55
1200UTC 01.10.2026 144 19.4N 111.1W 978 60
0000UTC 02.10.2026 156 19.8N 112.1W 975 59
1200UTC 02.10.2026 168 20.6N 113.3W 972 57

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.7N 138.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2026 72 12.7N 138.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 29.09.2026 84 14.2N 137.0W 1003 28
1200UTC 29.09.2026 96 15.1N 136.0W 1002 30
0000UTC 30.09.2026 108 15.6N 134.6W 1002 28
1200UTC 30.09.2026 120 16.1N 133.8W 1004 28
0000UTC 01.10.2026 132 17.4N 132.9W 1004 28
1200UTC 01.10.2026 144 18.1N 132.5W 1006 26
0000UTC 02.10.2026 156 18.3N 132.5W 1006 26
1200UTC 02.10.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 34.1N 53.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2026 120 34.1N 53.4W 1013 21
0000UTC 01.10.2026 132 34.8N 51.5W 1012 22
1200UTC 01.10.2026 144 35.5N 48.5W 1013 26
0000UTC 02.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251623


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 251453
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

Nolo continues on a gradual strengthening trend this morning. On
the last pass through the hurricane, Air Force Hurricane Hunters
reported that the pressure had dropped to about 980 mb, and
satellite imagery shows deepening convection in the ragged eyewall.
On this basis, the initial intensity is set to 75 kt, which is also
at the top end of the various satellite estimates.

The hurricane is moving north-northeastward at 4 kt, as it is being
steered by a deep-layer trough located west of the Hawaiian Islands.
This trough should begin to move away from Nolo on Saturday,
causing the hurricane to drift westward while it is located south of
Hawaii. A westward motion with increasing forward speed is then
expected by early Sunday due to a ridge re-building. Model
guidance has, unfortunately, not been very consistent on exactly
when this westward turn occurs, as there has been a shift to the
north on this cycle. This new forecast is moved in that direction
through the weekend, though still a fair distance south of Hawaii.
At long range, Nolo should again encounter the aforementioned
upper-level trough, now re-invigorated, which should cause a
north-northwestward turn early next week. No significant changes
were made to the long-range NHC forecast.

Nolo should further intensify today, though rapid intensification is
not expected due to its large radius-of-maximum wind, moderate
shear and some dry mid-level air in the northern semicircle. The
shear is forecast to weaken in about 36 hours, which should allow
the hurricane to significantly intensify. Additionally, Nolo could
be moving over a patch of high ocean heat content, and model
guidance is in better agreement on this system becoming rather
strong by early next week. The new forecast is similar to the
previous one but raised just a bit through day 3 to come into
better agreement with the typically skillful HCCA model. Weakening
is expected by days 4 and 5 due to forecast strong southwesterly
shear east of the trough.


Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii
through Saturday before turning westward and moving away from the
island. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the Big
Island tonight with hurricane conditions possible on Saturday,
particularly in areas of steep terrain. Residents should follow
advice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do
so.

2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain and
flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain increases in
both coverage and intensity today. Periods of heavy rain are
expected to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the
weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are
possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern
and southern portions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the
remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with
isolated flooding possible.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County where
tropical storm conditions are possible beginning on Saturday.
Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 16.0N 155.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 16.7N 155.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 17.1N 155.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 17.1N 156.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 16.9N 157.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 16.9N 159.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 17.4N 161.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 20.2N 164.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 22.7N 164.8W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 251452
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST FRI SEP 25 2026

...NOLO CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 155.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.5 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NOLO IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB (28.94 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT IN
THE WARNING AREA, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY
SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR MAUI,
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST-
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY, SPREADING WESTWARD
AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 251451
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 155.5W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 155.5W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 155.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.7N 155.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 155.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 156.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.9N 157.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 80SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 159.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.4N 161.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 164.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.7N 164.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 155.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 251152
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM HST FRI SEP 25 2026

...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 155.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
15.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.6 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NOLO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES (165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB (28.94 INCHES)
BASED ON AIR FORCE DROPSONDE DATA.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT IN
THE WARNING AREA, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY EARLY
SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 30 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR MAUI,
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST-
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY, SPREADING WESTWARD
AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 250850
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2026

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has provided some
conflicting data regarding Nolo's current intensity. On one hand,
the plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 81 kt in the
southeastern eyewall, which reduces to an intensity of 70-75 kt. On
the other hand, the central pressure has not fallen since the
previous mission, with the latest dropsonde data suggesting around
985 mb, and the 700-mb height has risen a bit. For now, the initial
intensity is raised conservatively to 70 kt. Deep convection is
becoming more symmetric around the eye, which is a bit ragged and
elliptical.

The initial motion remains north-northeastward, or 030/4 kt, with
Nolo being steered by a deep-layer trough located west of the
Hawaiian Islands. This trough is expected to weaken and drift
westward during the next 24-36 hours, with strong mid-level ridging
taking its place over and north of Hawaii. As a result, Nolo is
expected to come to a crawl by Friday night and early Saturday and
then begin to move south of due west through Sunday. The track
guidance has again shifted southward, responding to the
strengthening ridge, and the NHC forecast lies near the northern
edge of the envelope, closest to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean
(GDMI). With nearly every other major model lying south of the
official forecast, additional southward shifts in future
advisories are possible, but not yet a guarantee. The previously
mentioned deep-layer trough is expected to re-amplify later in the
forecast period, which is expected to cause Nolo to turn
northwestward and then north-northwestward by Monday and Tuesday.

Various shear analyses suggest that Nolo is experiencing moderate
deep-layer shear out of the south-southeast, which may be
contributing to the broken eyewall on the east side. However, the
shear is expected to abate during the next 24-36 hours, and along
with warm sea surface temperatures, should support continued
strengthening. There is a bit of model disagreement on exactly how
much strengthening will occur, but it is noteworthy that the
typically skillful HCCA model, as well as HAFS-A, shows Nolo
reaching high-end category 4 strength in 3-4 days. As a result, the
NHC intensity forecast has been increased slightly at that forecast
time. Weakening is anticipated by days 4 and 5 due to a marked
increase in southwesterly shear east of the trough.


Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected remain south of the Big Island of Hawaii
through Saturday before turning westward and moving away from the
island. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the Big
Island Friday night with hurricane conditions possible on Saturday,
particularly in areas of steep terrain. Residents should follow
advice given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do
so.

2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain and
flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain increases in
both coverage and intensity on Friday. Periods of heavy rain are
expected to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the
weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are
possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern
and southern portions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the
remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with
isolated flooding possible.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County where
tropical storm conditions are possible beginning on Saturday.
Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 15.5N 155.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 16.0N 155.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 16.6N 155.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 16.7N 155.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 16.5N 156.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 16.2N 158.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 16.4N 160.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 18.5N 163.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 21.3N 164.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 250850
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST THU SEP 24 2026

...NOLO STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 155.6W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.6 WEST. NOLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NOLO WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND NOLO
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DROPSONDE DATA IS 985 MB
(29.09 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE
FRIDAY IN THE WARNING AREA, WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY
EARLY SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
AREA BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL: FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND,
NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 30 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO
8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. FOR MAUI,
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK STORM SURGE GRAPHIC,
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST-
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY, SPREADING
WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 250849
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 155.6W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 155.6W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 155.8W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.0N 155.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.6N 155.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N 155.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 80SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.5N 156.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 70SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.2N 158.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 70SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.4N 160.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.5N 163.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.3N 164.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 155.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 250422

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 22.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 13.4N 22.7W 1007 33
1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 15.6N 22.4W 1007 34
0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 16.4N 24.2W 1007 33
1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 18.5N 25.0W 1007 33
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 20.7N 25.4W 1009 38
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 21.5N 26.0W 1010 28
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 21.4N 26.6W 1010 24
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 21.6N 27.3W 1011 20
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 21.8N 27.9W 1010 19
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 22.3N 28.7W 1012 18
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE POLO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 105.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 16.9N 105.9W 949 96
1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 16.9N 108.1W 943 95
0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 16.9N 110.1W 946 89
1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 17.2N 112.0W 950 84
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 18.3N 113.6W 959 70
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 19.7N 114.7W 947 84
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 21.3N 115.2W 957 73
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 22.8N 115.2W 965 66
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 23.9N 114.6W 968 68
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 25.1N 112.9W 982 58
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 27.5N 111.1W 990 47
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 31.9N 105.2W 997 27
0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 37.7N 101.6W 991 26
1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 39.6N 103.7W 990 23
0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.0N 41.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 30.0N 41.9W 1014 26
1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 30.1N 42.8W 1014 31
0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 30.0N 43.8W 1014 30
1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 30.1N 44.6W 1014 27
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 30.1N 44.8W 1015 23
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 29.9N 44.9W 1015 23
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 29.6N 44.9W 1016 22
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 28.7N 45.3W 1015 22
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 27.7N 46.1W 1014 22
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 26.8N 47.2W 1012 24
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 26.2N 48.5W 1012 26
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 26.1N 50.1W 1011 26
0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 26.3N 51.5W 1012 29
1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 27.2N 52.3W 1011 30
0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 28.1N 52.9W 1010 32

HURRICANE ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N 124.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 16.8N 124.7W 977 56
1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 17.5N 124.1W 980 56
0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 18.3N 124.2W 980 56
1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 19.1N 124.4W 983 53
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 20.0N 125.0W 991 46
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 21.0N 125.3W 995 37
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 21.6N 125.6W 999 34
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 21.4N 125.6W 1003 29
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 20.3N 125.5W 1004 27
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 19.2N 125.4W 1006 24
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 18.2N 125.7W 1006 21
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE NOLO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 156.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2026 0 14.9N 156.1W 990 46
1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 15.6N 155.8W 985 57
0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 15.9N 155.0W 983 65
1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 15.9N 154.4W 985 55
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 15.3N 154.7W 985 50
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 14.2N 155.4W 988 42
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 13.4N 156.4W 989 41
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 13.5N 157.5W 988 43
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 14.0N 158.6W 984 51
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 14.7N 159.1W 982 56
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 15.5N 158.6W 977 60
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 16.1N 157.3W 975 61
0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 16.5N 155.8W 983 54
1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 17.0N 154.7W 989 52
0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 17.6N 154.3W 995 42

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 35.2N 70.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2026 12 36.5N 70.6W 1000 42
0000UTC 26.09.2026 24 37.4N 71.0W 997 47
1200UTC 26.09.2026 36 38.0N 71.6W 992 47
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 38.5N 71.0W 993 42
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 39.7N 71.7W 992 39
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 39.1N 73.2W 996 34
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 39.4N 71.7W 1002 30
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 40.9N 69.4W 1005 26
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 42.7N 67.1W 1008 24
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 44.7N 64.3W 1009 25
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.7N 97.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2026 48 11.7N 97.6W 1007 24
1200UTC 27.09.2026 60 12.1N 99.0W 1005 26
0000UTC 28.09.2026 72 13.0N 100.4W 1003 30
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 13.0N 102.1W 1003 35
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 14.1N 104.1W 1000 34
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 15.1N 106.0W 999 33
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 16.4N 107.7W 995 45
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 18.2N 108.8W 996 41
0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 19.3N 110.1W 992 44
1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 19.7N 110.8W 989 56
0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 20.5N 111.2W 990 47

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.3N 139.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2026 84 13.5N 139.1W 1003 31
0000UTC 29.09.2026 96 13.9N 137.7W 1002 29
1200UTC 29.09.2026 108 14.6N 136.1W 1001 29
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 15.2N 135.0W 1000 33
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 15.8N 133.9W 1003 26
0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 16.4N 133.7W 1004 25
1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 17.4N 133.7W 1006 27
0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 17.4N 134.3W 1006 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 34.9N 40.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2026 120 34.9N 40.4W 1012 33
1200UTC 30.09.2026 132 34.7N 37.9W 1013 35
0000UTC 01.10.2026 144 34.6N 38.3W 1014 29
1200UTC 01.10.2026 156 35.3N 37.8W 1016 26
0000UTC 02.10.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250422


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 250252
TCDCP2

Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2026

Nolo's structure on satellite imagery continues to gradually
improve with a banding-type eye trying to develop on visible
satellite imagery. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have been
flying through Nolo this afternoon, and found a peak flight-level
wind of 71 kt and a minimum central pressure down to 984 mb in their
most recent fix. These values are enough to upgrade Nolo to a
hurricane this advisory, with an initial intensity of 65 kt.

The storm is finally moving more consistently to the north-northeast
with an estimated motion at 020 degrees at 4 kt. There is little
change to the track reasoning this cycle, with a deep-layer trough
located to the northwest of Nolo helping to steer it slowly to the
north-northeast over the next 24-36 h. Thereafter, this trough cuts
off to the west of the Hawaiian islands and moves westward out of
the way, allowing mid-level ridging to build back in north of Nolo.
The net result of this synoptic change is that Nolo is expected to
make a sharp turn to the west, or even west-southwest in the 48-72 h
time frame. However, the aforementioned cutoff low still limits how
far west this mid-level ridging is able to extend, and Nolo will
likely begin to gain latitude in the day 4-5 day time frame. The
track guidance has made a rather substantial southward shift
compared to the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been
shifted southward, though it remains on the northern side of the
guidance envelope. This track forecast lies closest to the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) which is actually a northern outlier
this cycle, so it's possible future southward adjustments may be
necessary.

Even though Nolo is now a hurricane, the Air Force Reconnaissance
aircraft has yet to report a closed eyewall in either of its fixes
through the hurricane, and the wind field is a little bit on the
broader side. However, environmental conditions appear quite
favorable with low shear, sufficently warm sea-surface temperatures
and enough deep-layer moisture to support robust intensification.
The NHC intensity forecast continues to forecast significant
intensification, and now shows a peak intensity of 115 kt as Nolo
turns westward in the 48-72 h time frame. This intensity forecast
is a blend of the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA)
and HAFS-A/B runs, even though the HCCA remains the highest outlier
in the intensity guidance this cycle. At long range, vertical wind
shear is expected to increase, and the NHC intensity shows
weakening beginning by day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to pass near or just south of the Big Island of
Hawaii on Saturday as a major hurricane. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin on the Big Island Friday night with hurricane
conditions possible on Saturday, particularly in areas of steep
terrain. Residents should follow advice given by local officials,
including evacuating if told to do so.

2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain and
flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain increases in
both coverage and intensity today and Friday. Periods of heavy rain
are expected to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the
weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are
possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern
and southern portions of the Big Island and Maui. Across the
remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected, with
isolated flooding possible.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County where
tropical storm conditions are possible beginning on Saturday.
Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.1N 155.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.7N 155.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.6N 155.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.1N 155.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 17.0N 156.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 16.9N 157.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 16.9N 159.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 18.6N 163.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 21.7N 164.8W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 250249
TCMCP2

HURRICANE NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 155.9W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 155.9W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 156.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.7N 155.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.6N 155.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 55SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.1N 155.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.0N 156.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 55SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 80SE 70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.9N 157.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 70SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 159.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 55NW.
34 KT...180NE 70SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 163.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.7N 164.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 155.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 242352
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM HST Thu Sep 24 2026

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE NOLO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 156.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Maui County

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system as additional watches or warnings
could be required.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 156.0 West. Nolo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster
motion to the north or north-northeast is expected later today
through Friday, followed by a sharp westward turn on Saturday in the
vicinity of the Big Island.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight and a major
hurricane by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nolo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin by late
Friday in the warning area, with hurricane conditions possible by
early Saturday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area beginning on Saturday.

RAINFALL: For the Big Island, Nolo will produce rainfall totals of
15 to 30 inches with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall
could produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.

For Maui, rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of
20 inches are expected. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are
possible, especially in areas of high terrain.

Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1
to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with
isolated flooding possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Nolo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide
will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach exposed east
and south-facing shores of the Big Island by Friday, spreading
westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 242056
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026

Nolo continues to become better organized, with a ragged eye on
satellite imagery and a primitive eyewall noted on the latest
microwave pass. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt, at the high
end of the various estimates due to the improved organization on
conventional satellite and microwave imagery. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the storm this
afternoon for a more precise estimate.

The storm has been moving erratically during the day, but appears to
finally be moving slowly northward. There is no change the synoptic
reasoning with a mid-latitude trough near the northwestern Hawaiian
Islands causing Nolo to accelerate north-northeastward during the
next day or so. The trough should move away by the weekend and be
replaced by a ridge, forcing a sharp westward turn on Saturday.
The northward trend during the last couple of model cycles has
stopped and is actually trending southward, led by the ECMWF model.
The new forecast is a touch south of the last one, but really all
these track changes are quite small. This remains an uncertain
forecast with some model ensemble tracks still over the Big Island,
though most are south. This forecast necessitates a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Big Island, and a closer track could substantially
increase the threat of damaging winds, particularly over higher
terrain, along exposed ridges, and in areas downwind of the ridges.

Rapid intensification is expected during the next day or so now
that an inner core has formed, combined with warm warm SSTs, low
shear and high mid-level moisture. Nolo is likely to become a
hurricane by tonight and reach major hurricane strength as it nears
the Big Island on Saturday. The new forecast is similar to the
previous one for the first few days, close to the HCCA aid. At long
range, vertical wind shear is forecast to cause Nolo to weaken, and
the NHC intensity prediction is lowered at that time.

Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to pass near or just south of the Big Island of
Hawaii on Saturday as a major hurricane. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin on the Big Island Friday night with
hurricane conditions possible on Saturday, particularly in areas of
steep terrain. Residents should follow advice given by local
officials, including evacuating if told to do so.

2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain and
flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain increases in
both coverage and intensity today and Friday. Periods of heavy rain
are expected to continue across the Big Island and Maui through the
weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are
possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island
and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are
expected, with isolated flooding possible.

3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Maui County where
tropical storm conditions are possible beginning on Saturday.
Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans
in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 14.9N 156.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 15.4N 156.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 16.4N 155.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.2N 155.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 17.7N 156.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 17.8N 157.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 17.8N 159.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 22.5N 165.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 242055
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 156.1W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 156.1W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 156.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.4N 156.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.4N 155.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.2N 155.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.7N 156.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.8N 157.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 241800
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM HST THU SEP 24 2026

...NOLO FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 156.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 156.1 WEST. NOLO HAS
BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY THIS MORNING BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO
THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A SHARP NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100
KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA STARTING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL: FOR THE BIG ISLAND, NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
15 TO 20 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES. THIS
RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR MAUI, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY, SPREADING
WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BERG=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 241450
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026

Satellite images indicate that Nolo is gradually becoming better
organized, with very deep convection in a curved band on the
southern and western side of the circulation. Additionally, a GPM
pass from overnight indicated that an inner core is forming,
although the eastern side is fragmented. Intensity estimates are
rising, and the current wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of
the lower subjective and higher objective values.

Nolo has not moved much during the last several hours but should
begin to move northward and north-northeastward later today due to
a mid-latitude trough dropping over the northwestern Hawaiian
Islands. The trough is forecast to move westward by Saturday with
a building ridge north of the main Hawaiian Islands, causing a
sharp westward turn this weekend. The big question is how close
does Nolo get before making that turn, with notable run-to-run
inconsistencies in much of the guidance. Similar to the last
cycle, the bulk of the models have shifted slightly northward, and
the new NHC forecast is moved in that direction. This remains a
more uncertain forecast than normal given the large unresolved
north-south spread, with other possible complicating terrain
influences of the Big Island (like we saw with Hurricane Lala last
month). Therefore, the long-range portion of the forecast is
essentially unchanged.

With the formation of an inner core, conditions appear to be coming
together for rapid intensification given the other conducive
environmental factors of warm SSTs, low shear and high mid-level
moisture. Nolo is likely to become a hurricane by tonight and
reach major hurricane strength as it nears the Big Island on
Saturday. The new forecast is raised from the previous one, just
below the HCCA aid, which has done well this year in these
strengthening episodes. Note that a track closer to the Big Island
could substantially increase the threat of damaging winds,
particularly over higher terrain, along exposed ridges, and in areas
downwind of the ridges.

Key Messages:

1. Nolo is expected to strengthen into a hurricane today as it
moves northward to north-northeastward, potentially making its
closest approach to the Big Island of Hawaii as a major hurricane on
Saturday. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Big Island,
and residents there should follow advice given by local officials,
including evacuating if told to do so. A Hurricane Warning will
likely be required for the Big Island later today.

2. The time to finish preparations for significant heavy rain
and flooding impacts on the Big Island is now as heavy rain
increases in both coverage and intensity today and Friday. Periods
of heavy rain are expected to continue across the Big Island and
Maui through the weekend. Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding
and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain
across the Big Island and Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii,
lesser rainfall totals are expected, with isolated flooding
possible.

3. Large and damaging waves are possible along portions of the
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the
latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plans in place. Tropical Storm Watches may be required for other
islands later today or on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 14.9N 156.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.2N 156.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.1N 155.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.1N 155.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 17.8N 155.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 18.0N 156.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.1N 158.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 19.0N 162.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 21.6N 164.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 241449
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST THU SEP 24 2026

...NOLO STRENGTHENING...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BEGIN LATE TODAY OVER THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 156.2W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 156.2 WEST. NOLO IS
STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST
LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SHARP WESTWARD TURN BY
SATURDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA STARTING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL: FOR THE BIG ISLAND, NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
15 TO 20 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES. THIS
RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR MAUI, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NOLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY, SPREADING
WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 241448
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 156.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 156.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 156.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.2N 156.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.1N 155.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.1N 155.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.8N 155.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.0N 156.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
// END PART 01 //=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 241148
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM HST THU SEP 24 2026

...NOLO FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 156.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 156.0 WEST. NOLO IS
CURRENTLY STATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP WESTWARD TURN BY SATURDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AND
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA STARTING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO
20 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MAUI. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAUI, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY, SPREADING
WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 240843
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2026

Nolo's convective organization has gradually improved during the
past several hours, with a curved band of persistent deep convection
tightening around the circulation center. The latest subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO are both T2.5/35 kt,
while objective intensity estimates range from 35 to 55 kt. Given
the improved convective organization and the higher objective
estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

Nolo has slowed considerably and appears to be making its
anticipated northward turn, with an initial motion of 360/2 kt. A
weakening subtropical ridge northeast of Hawaii should allow Nolo to
continue moving slowly northward into Thursday, followed by a
north-northeastward motion as an upper-level trough deepens
northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. As the trough shifts westward and
the subtropical ridge rebuilds north of the cyclone, Nolo is
forecast to make a sharp westward turn Friday night into Saturday.
The latest GDMI and HCCA guidance has shifted slightly northward,
bringing the system closer to the Big Island. Given the run-to-run
inconsistencies in the guidance, the NHC track forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory and shows Nolo
passing south of the Big Island on Saturday before continuing
westward south of the smaller Hawaiian Islands through the latter
portion of the weekend. However, considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the influence of the deepening upper-level trough on
Nolo's track, as well as the timing and strength of the subtropical
ridge rebuilding north of the cyclone. Even relatively small
differences in the evolution of these steering features could
significantly alter the timing and location of Nolo's sharp westward
turn and, ultimately, how close its center passes to the Big Island.
A track closer to the Big Island could also result in interactions
with the island's terrain that could further influence the cyclone's
subsequent motion. Given these uncertainties, confidence in the
track forecast remains lower than normal.

Environmental conditions remain favorable for strengthening, with
very warm sea surface temperatures and plenty of mid-level moisture
along the forecast track. However, around 10 kt of easterly vertical
wind shear may temper the rate of intensification during the next 24
h or so. As the shear relaxes and Nolo continues to develop an inner
core, a faster rate of intensification is forecast while the cyclone
moves northward to north-northeastward during the next couple of
days. These conditions could support a period of rapid
intensification, and Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane by
Thursday night and reach major hurricane strength on Saturday as it
passes south of the Big Island. The latest NHC intensity forecast
hovers near the upper end of the guidance envelope throughout the
forecast period. A track closer to the Big Island could
substantially increase the threat of damaging winds, particularly
over higher terrain, along exposed ridges, and in areas downwind of
the ridges.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Nolo is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by
Thursday night as it moves northward to north-northeastward,
potentially making its closest approach to the Big Island of Hawaii
as a major hurricane on Saturday. A Hurricane Watch remains in
effect for the Big Island, and residents there should follow advice
given by local officials, including evacuating if told to do so.

2. The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding
impacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely
by Thursday and Friday. Periods of heavy rain are likely to continue
across the Big Island and Maui through the weekend.
Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible,
especially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island and Maui.
Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected,
with isolated flooding possible.

3. Large and damaging waves are possible along portions of the
Big Island's coastline into the weekend.

4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 14.9N 156.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.1N 156.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 15.8N 155.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 16.7N 155.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 17.3N 155.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 17.6N 155.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 17.6N 157.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 18.1N 160.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 20.3N 163.7W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 240841
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST WED SEP 23 2026

...NOLO STRENGTHENING AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 156.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 156.0 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A GENERAL NORTH TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
SHARP WESTWARD TURN BY SATURDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA STARTING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO
20 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MAUI. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS MAUI,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY, SPREADING
WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 AM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 240840
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 156.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 156.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 156.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.1N 156.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.8N 155.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 155.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.3N 155.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.6N 155.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 70SE 70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.6N 157.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...190NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.1N 160.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 163.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 156.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 240542
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM HST WED SEP 23 2026

...TROPICAL STORM NOLO HOLDING STEADY AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 155.9W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.9 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A SHARP TURN
TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BIG
ISLAND OF HAWAII ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA STARTING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO
20 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MAUI. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS MAUI,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY, SPREADING
WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 240252
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Wed Sep 23 2026

Nolo's convective organization has improved slightly during the past
several hours, with persistent deep convection within a curved band
wrapping into the circulation from the north around the western
semicircle. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
JTWC and HFO are both T2.0/30 kt, while objective intensity
estimates range from 30 to 40 kt. Given the improved convective
organization and the higher objective estimates, the initial
intensity was increased to 40 kt in the 2 PM HST intermediate
advisory and is maintained for this advisory.

Nolo is moving west-northwestward, with an initial motion of 285/5
kt. A weakening subtropical ridge to the north should allow
Nolo to slow down and turn northward tonight into Thursday, followed
by a north-northeastward motion as an upper-level trough deepens
northwest of the Hawaiian Islands. As the trough moves westward and
the subtropical ridge rebuilds north of Hawaii, Nolo is forecast to
make a sharp westward turn Friday night into Saturday. The latest
GDMI and HCCA guidance has shifted slightly to the left, taking Nolo
farther south of the Big Island. The NHC track forecast reflects a
blend of the previous forecast and these aids, and shows Nolo
passing about 85 n mi south of the Big Island on Saturday, then
about 215 n mi south of the smaller Hawaiian Islands during the
latter portion of the weekend. However, uncertainty remains
regarding exactly when and where the sharp westward turn will occur,
with the ECMWF remaining on the right side of the guidance envelope
and bringing Nolo closer to the islands.

Environmental conditions remain favorable for strengthening, with
very warm sea surface temperatures and plenty of mid-level moisture
along the forecast track. However, around 10 kt of easterly vertical
wind shear may temper the rate of intensification during the next 24
to 36 h. As the shear relaxes and Nolo continues to develop an inner
core, a faster rate of intensification is forecast while the cyclone
moves northward to north-northeastward during the next couple of
days. These conditions could support rapid intensification, and Nolo
is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday night and reach major
hurricane strength on Saturday as it passes south of the Big Island.
The latest NHC intensity forecast hovers near the upper end of the
guidance envelope throughout the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Nolo is expected to strengthen into a hurricane
by Thursday night as it turns northward, potentially making its
closest approach to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday. A
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Big Island, and residents
there should follow advice given by local officials, including
evacuating if told to do so.

2. The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding
impacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely
by Thursday and Friday. Periods of heavy rain are likely to
continue across the Big Island and Maui through the weekend.
Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible,
especially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island and
Maui. Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are
expected, with isolated flooding possible.

3. Large and damaging waves are possible along the coast of the
Big Island into the weekend.

4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plans
in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 155.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 14.8N 156.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.4N 155.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.2N 155.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.1N 155.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 17.5N 155.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 17.4N 156.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 17.5N 158.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 18.9N 162.1W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Gibbs


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 240249
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM HST WED SEP 23 2026

...TROPICAL STORM NOLO HOLDING STEADY AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 155.9W
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.9 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A SHARP TURN
TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, WITH THIS
MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA STARTING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO
20 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS
MAUI. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS MAUI,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY, SPREADING
WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 800 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 240249
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 155.9W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 155.9W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 155.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.8N 156.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.4N 155.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.2N 155.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.1N 155.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.5N 155.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.4N 156.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 158.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 80SE 80SW 110NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 18.9N 162.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 155.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 232344
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM HST WED SEP 23 2026

...TROPICAL STORM NOLO STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...
...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 155.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 485 MI...775 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.8 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
THURSDAY AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA STARTING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO
20 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS
MAUI. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS MAUI,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE
WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD REACH THE
FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED AREAS IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EXPOSED EAST
AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND BY FRIDAY, SPREADING
WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER GIBBS=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 232056
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Nolo Discussion Number 13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2026

The system has continued to become better organized this morning,
with tighter curved banding features noted on satellite imagery.
The low-level circulation remains on the southeastern side of most
of the deep convection. Satellite estimates are rising, and the
bulk of the values now show this at or above 35 kt. The initial
intensity is set to 35 kt, marking the formation of a tropical
storm.

Nolo is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. There is no
change to the synoptic reasoning with a ridge located to the
northeast of Hawaii forecast to weaken and push eastward as a mid-
latitude trough deepens over the northwestern Hawaiian islands.
This pattern is likely to the cause Nolo to slow down tonight and
then turn north-northeastward by tomorrow with some increase in
forward speed. The trough is forecast to move westward this weekend
as the ridge rebuilds north of Hawaii, which should force a sharp
leftward turn while the cyclone is close to the Big Island. It
really depends on how far northeast Nolo gets before the ridge
rebuilds, with the solutions that gain the most latitude in the
next few days generally getting closest to Hawaii. Although there
has been a small southward shift in the overall guidance on this
cycle, there is still a large spread approaching 250 n mi from
north-to-south by the weekend. The new forecast is nudged south on
this advisory, but it should be considered low confidence.

The current disorganized structure would seem to promote only slow
strengthening during the next day or so under otherwise favorable
environmental conditions. However, the system is likely to
develop an inner core on Thursday, which could support rapid
intensification given very warm waters, low shear and high
mid-level moisture values. Intensity guidance is a little higher
than the last cycle, and the NHC forecast is raised slightly from
day 3 and beyond, showing a major hurricane near and west of Hawaii.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Storm Nolo is expected to strengthen into a hurricane
on Thursday as it moves northward, potentially making its closest
approach to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday. A Hurricane Watch
is now in effect for the Big Island, and residents there should
follow advice given by local officials, including evacuating if told
to do so.

2. The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding
impacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely
by Thursday and Friday. Periods of heavy rain are likely to
continue across the Big Island and Maui through the weekend.
Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible,
especially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island and Maui.
Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected,
with isolated flooding possible.

3. Large and damaging waves are possible along the coast of the Big
Island into the weekend.

4. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan
in place.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 14.5N 155.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 14.7N 155.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 15.1N 155.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 15.8N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.7N 154.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.5N 154.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 17.8N 155.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 17.6N 158.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 18.8N 161.8W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 232055
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOLO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST WED SEP 23 2026

...TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORMS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 155.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 155.3 WEST. NOLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH THIS MOTION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOLO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
THURSDAY AND COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE WEEKEND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR NOLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE CAN BE FOUND IN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2 AND WMO
HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA STARTING
AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL STORM NOLO WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO
20 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 35 INCHES.
THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS
MAUI. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS MAUI,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN, ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM NOLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

STORM SURGE: THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS MOVING INLAND FROM THE SHORELINE. THE WATER COULD
REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE INDICATED
AREAS IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HAWAII COUNTY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION, WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING
DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE,
AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK OF STORM SURGE
INUNDATION, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEAK
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_CP2.SHTML?PEAKSURGE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY NOLO ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST AND
SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY, SPREADING WESTWARD
AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 200 PM HST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 232054
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 155.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 155.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 155.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.7N 155.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.1N 155.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.8N 155.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 154.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.5N 154.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.8N 155.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 17.6N 158.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N 161.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 155.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 231449
TCDCP2

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2026

Satellite imagery shows that the depression is becoming better
organized. Banding features are becoming more defined on the
western and northern sides of the system, with expanding outflow
noted. However, the low-level circulation appears to be on the
southeastern edge of the deep convection and isn't well aligned
with the deep convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates have
a large spread this morning, from about 25-40 kt. Without
definitive evidence it has become a tropical storm, the initial wind
speed will stay 30 kt, which is also consistent with winds from a
recent OSCAT scatterometer pass.

The depression has slowed since the last advisory and seems to be
moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt. A ridge to the northeast
of Hawaii is forecast to weaken and slide eastward as a mid-
latitude trough drops over the northwestern Hawaiian islands.
This evolution is likely to the cause the cyclone to slow down
later today or tonight and then turn northward or north-
northeastward by tomorrow with some increase in forward speed. The
trough is forecast to move westward this weekend as the ridge
rebuilds north of Hawaii, which should force a sharp westward turn
while the cyclone is close to the Big Island. At this time frame,
it is impossible to know exactly when that turn will happen and,
unsurprisingly, there is a large north-south spread in the guidance.
Our best guidance is on the northern side of the track envelope,
and new NHC forecast remains essentially the same as the last
advisory. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially on the Big
Island, should closely monitor the system, with life-threatening
catastrophic flooding possible over the steep terrain on this track.

The depression should intensify slowly at first, given the current
structure of the low-level center not co-located with the mid-level
circulation as seen on satellite. However, after the system
develops an inner core, the environment seems conducive for
significant strengthening, with low shear, high mid-level moisture
and SSTs from 28-29C. The rapid intensification probabilities are
increasing, and the best model guidance is showing this as a major
hurricane in a few days. Given the environment and the
best-performing aids (Google DeepMind and HCCA) again showing
major-hurricane strength, the NHC forecast is raised from the
previous one and shows the cyclone as a major hurricane when it
approaches the Big Island of Hawaii by the weekend.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is expected to strengthen into a
tropical storm later today and a hurricane on Thursday as it turns
northward, potentially making its closest approach to the Big Island
of Hawaii on Saturday. There is an increasing risk of wind and wave
impacts in the Hawaiian Islands, and a Hurricane Watch may be
required for the Big Island later today.

2. The time to prepare for significant heavy rain and flooding
impacts on the Big Island is now, as heavy rain becomes more likely
by Thursday and Friday. Periods of heavy rain are likely to
continue across the Big Island and Maui through the weekend.
Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible,
especially in areas of steep terrain across the Big Island and Maui.
Across the remainder of Hawaii, lesser rainfall totals are expected,
with isolated flooding possible.

3. Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor the latest forecast
updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 14.5N 154.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.7N 155.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.0N 155.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 15.7N 155.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 16.7N 154.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.6N 154.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.2N 154.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 18.1N 157.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 18.7N 160.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 231448
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM HST WED SEP 23 2026

...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 154.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE LATER TODAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 154.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH
(9 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY, WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY, WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE LIKELY ON THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THIS WEEKEND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E CAN BE FOUND IN THE
CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOTCPCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND IMPACTS IN THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

RAINFALL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 35
INCHES. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
EXPECTED ACROSS MAUI. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAUI, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN, ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP15.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND
ON FRIDAY, SPREADING WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 231448
TCMCP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 154.4W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 154.4W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 154.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.7N 155.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.7N 155.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.7N 154.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.6N 154.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.2N 154.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 18.1N 157.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 18.7N 160.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 154.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 230844
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP152026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM HST TUE SEP 22 2026

...DEPRESSION REDEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 153.7W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 153.7
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
(19 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII ON FRIDAY, AS A
HURRICANE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E CAN BE FOUND IN THE
CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOTCPCP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF WIND IMPACTS IN THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.

RAINFALL: HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF HAWAII
WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIFE-THREATENING,
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF HAWAII, LESSER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED, WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST AND SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND
ON FRIDAY, SPREADING WESTWARD AND BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER KELLY/CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 160421

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 16.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 125.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2026 0 15.4N 125.0W 1003 26
1200UTC 16.09.2026 12 15.2N 127.2W 1004 24
0000UTC 17.09.2026 24 15.4N 129.7W 1004 26
1200UTC 17.09.2026 36 16.0N 132.1W 1004 25
0000UTC 18.09.2026 48 16.5N 134.6W 1005 27
1200UTC 18.09.2026 60 17.5N 137.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 19.09.2026 72 18.0N 139.5W 1007 27
1200UTC 19.09.2026 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 16.8N 136.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2026 120 16.6N 137.7W 1005 29
1200UTC 21.09.2026 132 16.9N 140.7W 1003 33
0000UTC 22.09.2026 144 17.1N 143.9W 1002 33
1200UTC 22.09.2026 156 18.0N 146.8W 1002 35
0000UTC 23.09.2026 168 18.7N 149.3W 1005 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 14.8N 112.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2026 168 14.6N 112.0W 1006 21

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 25.2N 51.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2026 168 26.3N 50.9W 1012 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 27.7N 62.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2026 168 27.7N 62.5W 1013 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160421


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 160231
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 125.8W
ABOUT 1155 MI...1860 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN-E WERE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 125.8 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS
CONTINUE TO DECAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN-E, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 160231
TCDEP5

REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026

EARLIER ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 18Z SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF
FIFTEEN-E WAS BECOMING MORE ELONGATED IN THE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION.
SINCE THAT TIME, VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS FURTHER
DEGRADATION AND ELONGATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, AND IT IS
ESTIMATED THAT FIFTEEN-E LIKELY NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CENTER AND HAS OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG
THE PATH OF THE REMNANTS ARE MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
AND THE CHANCE OF REGENERATION APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN-E, PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT
OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.5N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF
12H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 160231
TCMEP5

REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2026

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 125.8W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 125.8W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 125.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 125.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF FIFTEEN-E PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 152041
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN
18Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THAT THE DEPRESSION'S CENTER
HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED THAN EARLIER TODAY, ALONG WITH WEAKER
WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT, PER THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA, WHICH ALSO MIRRORS THE DROP IN RECENT
CONVENTIONAL ESTIMATES.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 255/10 KT. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THAT SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LESS DEFINED, THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY LESS
RESILIENT TO PERSISTENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SHEAR. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST HOLDS THE INTENSITY AT 25 KT AND BRINGS UP THE DISSIPATION
TIME TO 24 HOURS, IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS
EVEN POSSIBLE IT COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 15.7N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.2N 126.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 15.0N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER JACKSON/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 152039
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152026
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...DEPRESSION WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 125.0W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 125.0
West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through
tomorrow or until it dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
This system is forecast to dissipate within a day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Jackson/Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 151446
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026

CONVECTION IS STILL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PER INFRARED AND PROXY-VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE 0804 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER REMAINS ELONGATED WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT.
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 260/10 KT. A
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM IS STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
RELIED ON THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND HCCA AIDS.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS WITHIN A MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
NEAR A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING
INTO THE CENTER. WHILE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER
TODAY, THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN IN
A COUPLE DAYS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE DEEP
CONVECTION. THUS, THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 60 H, AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4. NO
LARGE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 16.1N 123.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.8N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.6N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 15.6N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 15.8N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z 16.2N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER JACKSON/BLAKE/MUCCILLI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 151445
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152026
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 123.9W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 123.9
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Jackson/Blake/Muccilli


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 151444
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 123.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 123.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.4W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.8N 125.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.6N 127.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.6N 129.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.6N 131.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.8N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.2N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 123.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JACKSON/BLAKE/MUCCILLI=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 150838
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152026
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 122.6W
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 122.6
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 150839
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 AM PDT TUE SEP 15 2026

INFRARED AND PROXY-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. RECENT 0519 UTC METOP-B AND 0541 UTC
METOP-C SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING
ELONGATED, AND STRETCHED OUT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 28 KT. THEREFORE,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 260/9 KT. A GENERALLY
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM IS
STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ONCE AGAIN AND
TRENDS TOWARDS THE HCCA AND SIMPLE TVCN CONSENSUS AIDS.

THE DEPRESSION REMAINS WITHIN A MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT,
WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE IN ABOUT A DAY, THE MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE
STRENGTHENING. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, AND THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INTO
AN EVEN DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AND REMAIN BELOW
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 60 H, AND OPEN INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.1N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.8N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 15.5N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 15.6N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z 16.3N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 150838
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 122.6W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 122.6W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 122.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.8N 124.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.4N 128.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.6N 134.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 16.3N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 122.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 150234
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
800 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2026

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EXPOSED CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WELL TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTIVE
AREA, DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KT AFFECTING
THE SYSTEM. IN FACT, THE CENTER HAS RAN OUT FARTHER AHEAD TO THE
WEST OF THE CONVECTION COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY, NOW ABOUT 40-45 N
MI FROM THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 29-35 KT. AN
EARLIER ASCAT-B OVERPASS AT 14/1630 UTC SHOWED PEAK VECTORS OF 27 KT
LOCATED 60 TO 80 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT
PASS.

SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS HAVE BEEN A BIT
ERRATIC, BUT GENERALLY INDICATE A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST,
OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD KEEP IT ON A SIMILAR HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE ORIENTATION OF
THE RIDGE CHANGING SLIGHTLY, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO
TURN TO A DIRECTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE,
AND LIES BETWEEN THE FARTHER NORTH TVCN AND THE FARTHER SOUTH HCCA
AND GDMI. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CROSS TRACK SPREAD IS QUITE
LARGE FROM HOUR 24 ONWARD, AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BELOW AVERAGE.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING DUE TO THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ADVECTING SOME DRY AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. EVEN
THOUGH THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVER THE NEXT 24 H, THE
INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY
TO STRENGTHEN BEYOND A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN HOW FAR ANY
CONVECTION IS FROM THE CENTER CURRENTLY, AND THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD
START WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REACHES A DRIER
ENVIRONMENT, SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE
DEPRESSION COULD POTENTIALLY BECOME POST-TROPICAL OR DISSIPATE
SOONER THAN THIS FORECAST INDICATES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 16.5N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 16.3N 122.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 16.2N 124.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.1N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 16.6N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 17.2N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 150233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N 122.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.2N 124.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.1N 128.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.6N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.2N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 142034
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2026

...DEPRESSION PROGRESSES FARTHER WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 120.5W
ABOUT 805 MI...1290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.5
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H)
AND THIS GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 142035
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2026

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION
AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO PUSH THE CONVECTION AWAY AND
PUSH DRY AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THE CENTER IS ALSO
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CURRENT OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS IS IN THE RANGE OF 27-34 KT. AS
SUCH, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT AT 30 KT.

BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION, THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS BEING
STEERED BY A RIDGE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST, AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STEERING FLOW FOR THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36-48 H. THE CURRENT NHC
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
CLOSER TO THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE
DEEPMIND (GDMI) FORECAST AIDS.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DUE TO
THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ADVECTING SOME DRY
AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
24 H. AS A RESULT, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING. WHILE THERE IS A PERIOD BETWEEN 24-48 H WHERE THE
SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN, THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT
BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS PERIOD TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER.
AFTER 48 H, THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION INTO THE LARGER MONSOON TROUGH. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY, AND IS
SLIGHTLY UNDER THE HCCA GUIDANCE FOR INTENSITY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 16.9N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.7N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 16.6N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 16.4N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.4N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 16.9N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z 17.5N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 142034
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.5W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.5W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.7N 121.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.4N 125.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.4N 127.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.6N 129.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 120.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 141434
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152026
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 119.7W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 119.7
West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next
several days with some gradual acceleration.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today. The
system is expected to weaken beginning Tuesday night or Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 141434
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
800 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2026

THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION DUE TO ONGOING WESTERLY SHEAR. THE MOST RECENT TAFB
DVORAK FIX WAS T2.0/30 KT, WHILE THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 27-34 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 240/8 KT. THIS SEEMS TO BE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF THE NEARBY CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL SYSTEM BEING
STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STEERING FLOW FOR THE CYCLONE AND
INCREASE OVERALL FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH
(HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND (GDMI) FORECAST AIDS.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR TOO MUCH
STRENGTHENING DUE TO THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ADVECTING SOME DRY AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. DESPITE
THIS, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 H. BASED ON THIS, THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. WHILE THERE
IS A PERIOD BETWEEN 24-48 H WHERE THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN, THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THIS PERIOD TO STRENGTHEN. AFTER 48 H, THE CYCLONE
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT GETS LOST WITHIN THE LARGER MONSOON TROUGH. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PRIOR ADVISORY, BUT KEEPS
35 KT INTENSITY FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 16.3N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.1N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.9N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 15.3N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 15.2N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 15.2N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 141433
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 119.7W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 119.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 119.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.1N 121.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 123.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.4N 127.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.3N 129.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.2N 132.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.2N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 119.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 140839
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 AM PDT MON SEP 14 2026

THERE ARE NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO REPORT WITH THE DEPRESSION
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE HOVERING IN THE 30 KT RANGE. WITHOUT MUCH APPRECIABLE
CHANGE TO THE DEPRESSION'S STRUCTURE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 30 KT THIS ADVISORY.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADE A SHORT-TERM JOG SOUTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, LIKELY INFLUENCED BY NEARBY CONVECTION, AND
ITS INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 255/8 KT. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH
SOME GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS IT REMAINS STEERED BY A SIGNIFICANT
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE PLACED TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PRIOR ADVISORY, PARTIALLY DUE TO
THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS TRACK LIES CLOSEST TO
THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA) AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
(GDMI) FORECAST AIDS.

THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY
IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE SYSTEM IN CHECK, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
NORTHWEST DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR IS HELPING TO BRING DRY AIR INTO
ITS CENTER. THUS, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY, IN LINE WITH THE HCCA INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO DECREASE AFTER
THE NEXT 24-36 H, MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE NOT
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS, INSTEAD SHOWING A SLOWLY
WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT GRADUALLY LOSES ITS IDENTITY WITHIN THE
LARGER MONSOON TROUGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PRIOR ADVISORY, BUT MOVES UP THE TIMING OF REMNANT LOW STATUS TO
72 H, WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LOSE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
IN THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 16.5N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.3N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.1N 122.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.8N 124.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.4N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 15.0N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 14.7N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z 14.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 140837
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152026
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...DEPRESSION NOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND COULD STILL BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 118.9W
ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 118.9
West. The depression is now moving toward the west-southwest near 9
mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next several days with some gradual acceleration.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is still forecast, and the
depression could become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 140836
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 118.9W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 118.9W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 118.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.3N 120.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.1N 122.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.8N 124.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.4N 127.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.0N 129.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.7N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 118.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 140234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152026
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 118.3W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fifteen-E was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 118.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17
km/h). A slightly faster westward to west-southwestward motion is
forecast during the couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected overnight, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by early Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 140235
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED AND EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. USING MEASUREMENTS WITH THE DVORAK SHEAR
PATTERN, THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO BE BELOW
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
REMAINS 30 KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
OBSERVATIONS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING
AFFECTED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY DRY
MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE
MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE, ONLY SLIGHT SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING IS
CALLED FOR AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY
OR SO, WITH THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS
OR SOONER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL RUN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF AROUND 260/9 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK
WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO, BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST
AS, THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND CORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS,
HCCA, GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 17.0N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.8N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.5N 121.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 16.0N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 15.7N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 15.4N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 140233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 117.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 16.8N 119.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.5N 121.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.3N 123.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 125.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.7N 128.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.4N 130.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 118.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 132036
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026

DEEP CONVECTION BECAME MORE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (EP97) LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM IS
BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND THE CENTER
HAS RECENTLY BECOME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. REGARDLESS OF THE EXPOSED CENTER, SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO T1.5 AT 18Z WITH DATA T-NUMBERS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. THEREFORE, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY 48 HOURS, CONTINUED
MODERATE SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THE DEEP CONVECTION WANING IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BEFORE THE
END OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 260/7 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STEER IT SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FORWARD SPEED WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES
EVEN MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS OF THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GDM AND HCCA CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.2N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 17.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.7N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.5N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 132035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 117.2W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H).
A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT
OR MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 132035
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.0N 118.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.7N 119.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 121.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.4N 123.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.3N 125.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 128.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=