Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FIFTEEN-E-26
Off-shore

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Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 132036
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026

DEEP CONVECTION BECAME MORE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT AND THIS
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (EP97) LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM IS
BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, AND THE CENTER
HAS RECENTLY BECOME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. REGARDLESS OF THE EXPOSED CENTER, SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO T1.5 AT 18Z WITH DATA T-NUMBERS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER. THEREFORE, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY 48 HOURS, CONTINUED
MODERATE SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL
WEAKENING. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THE DEEP CONVECTION WANING IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BEFORE THE
END OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 260/7 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STEER IT SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FORWARD SPEED WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES
EVEN MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FASTER
SOLUTIONS OF THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GDM AND HCCA CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.2N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 17.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.7N 119.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.5N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.4N 123.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.3N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.1N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 132035
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 13 2026

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 117.2W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.2
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H).
A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT
OR MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 132035
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.2W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.2W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.0N 118.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.7N 119.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 121.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.4N 123.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.3N 125.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 128.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=