Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for FAY-26
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 292034
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
500 PM AST Tue Sep 29 2026

Fay's time as a tropical cyclone has faded away. An earlier
scatterometer pass showed that the system had weakened with maximum
winds around 25 kt, and that the low-level center was becoming less
defined. While occasional bursts of convection may continue, the
convection has not been organized in several hours. Thus, the system
is being designated as a post-tropical cyclone with an initial
intensity of 25 kt.

The post-tropical cyclone will continue to move generally
west-southwestward at around 10 kt, steered along the southern
periphery of the mid-level ridge located over the central Atlantic.
The system should continue to gradually weaken and is expected to
dissipate into an open trough in about a day or so. The latest NHC
track and intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
lies near the latest consensus aids.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 23.7N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/0600Z 23.1N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1800Z 22.7N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 292033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
500 PM AST Tue Sep 29 2026

...FAY BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 48.2W
ABOUT 1590 MI...2560 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay
was located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 48.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-southwest near 12
mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast, and Fay is forecast to
dissipate in a day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 292032
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 48.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 48.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 47.7W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.1N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.7N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 48.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 291449
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026

Fay remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center
completely exposed and all the deep convection sheared well to the
southwest. This remaining convection continues to be displaced
further and further away from the low-level center. Recent satellite
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB have trended downward to
around 30 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity for this
advisory is lowered to 30 kt, making Fay a tropical depression once
again.

Fay is moving southwestward, or 225/10 kt, steered by a mid-level
ridge located over the central Atlantic. This general motion is
expected to continue throughout the remainder of the forecast
period. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update to
the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with HCCA
corrected-consensus aid.

The depression is expected to continue to deal with increasing
vertical wind shear, which should limit convection near the
low-level center. As Fay moves into a more stable airmass, global
models are in good agreement that the cyclone will become completely
devoid of deep convection by Wednesday. The latest NHC intensity
forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low at
that time, before opening into a trough shortly thereafter. Given
the increasingly hostile environment, it is entirely possible that
the system could become post-tropical or dissipate even earlier than
currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 24.2N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0000Z 22.5N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 291448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 47.3W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 47.3W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 46.9W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.4N 48.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 53.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 47.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 291448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026

...FAY WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 47.3W
ABOUT 1525 MI...2455 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 47.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
this motion is expected to continue the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast, and Fay is forecast to
become a post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 290850
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026

Proxy-visible satellite imagery shows that the convection around Fay
has increasingly become more sheared in the last several hours.
Infrared imagery does still show some of the convection has cloud
tops near -70 C. In addition, the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was
2.0/30 KT, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are
in the range of 33-43 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been
held at 35 kt for this advisory.

The storm is still moving toward the southwest with an estimated
initial motion of 235/11 kt. Fay is expected to keep a general
southwestward to west-southwestward motion for the next couple of
days as the cyclone is guided by the flow along the southern
periphery of a mid-level ridge situated over the central Atlantic.
The current NHC track forecast is almost identical to the previous
one with just a few minor adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI
forecast aids.

With the convection expected to pulsate for the next couple of days,
the intensity will also fluctuate as well. However that convection
will likely become increasingly separated from the center as the
SHIPS guidance indicates increasing vertical wind shear over the
couple of days. Based on the global models, Fay will struggle to
maintain deep convection as it moves into a more stable air mass and
an area of upper-level convergence. The current NHC intensity
forecast is based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance and Fay is
still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a day or so.
The global models show the system degenerating into a trough
afterwards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 25.0N 46.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 24.0N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 23.1N 50.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 22.7N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0600Z 22.6N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 290849
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 46.8W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 46.8W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 46.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.0N 48.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.1N 50.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.7N 52.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.6N 54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 46.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 290849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
500 AM AST Tue Sep 29 2026

...FAY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 46.8W
ABOUT 1465 MI...2360 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 46.8 West. Fay is moving
toward the southwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A southwest to
west-southwest motion, along with a further increase in forward
speed, are expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is expected during the next day or so, and
Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone within 36 h.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 290236
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026

The convection around Fay continues to improve during the evening
hours, but is still a bit sheared to the south of the low-level
center. A few cloud tops near -70 C persist, with the objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS in the range of 34-43 kt.
However, the latest TAFB Dvorak fix was a T2.0/30 kt. Based on the
given data, the intensity has been risen to 35 kt for this
advisory, which makes Fay a tropical storm again.

The storm is still moving toward the southwest with an estimated
initial motion of 225/8 kt. This general southwest to west-southwest
motion is expected to persist for the next couple of days as Fay is
guided by the flow along the southern periphery of a mid-level
ridge situated over the central Atlantic. The current NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous one with just a few minor
adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.

The intensity of the cyclone is likely to continue to fluctuate
for the next couple of days as convection continues to pulsate, but
that convection will likely be sheared away from the center since
SHIPS guidance indicates increasing shear over the next day or so.
The global models still show that Fay will struggle to maintain
deep convection once it moves into a more stable air mass and an
area of upper-level convergence. The current NHC intensity forecast
only shows minor changes in intensity with Fay becoming a
post-tropical cyclone in a day or so, then degenerate into a trough
in a few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 26.0N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 25.1N 47.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 23.9N 49.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 23.1N 51.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/0000Z 22.8N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 290236
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026

...FAY REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 45.9W
ABOUT 1380 MI...2215 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 45.9 West. Fay is moving
toward the southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A southwest to
west-southwest motion, along with an increase in forward speed, is
expected to continue over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
day or so, and Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in
36 h.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 290235
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 45.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 45.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 45.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.1N 47.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.9N 49.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 51.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N 53.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 45.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 282032
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
500 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026

Fay has continued to produce bursts of deep convection this
afternoon, primarily sheared to the south of the low-level center.
The overall satellite presentation has improved slightly since
earlier today, featuring cold cloud tops near -70C. Objective
UW-CIMSS satellite intensity estimates have been running slightly
higher than the scatterometer-derived surface wind data from earlier
today. However, the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB
has held steady at T2.0/30 kt. Accordingly, the initial intensity is
maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.

The depression is moving southwestward with an estimated initial
motion of 220/8 kt. A general southwest to west-southwest motion is
anticipated over the next couple of days as Fay is steered by the
flow along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge situated over
the central Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially
an update of the previous advisory and lies very close to the HCCA
corrected-consensus aid.

Fay continues to defy model guidance by maintaining deep convection
near its low-level center. Given that vertical wind shear remains
low-to-moderate and sea surface temperatures are near 29C, it is
entirely possible that Fay could briefly regain tropical storm
strength tonight. Global models persist in showing that the system
will struggle to sustain deep convection in a day or so as it
encounters a more stable air mass and upper-level convergence.
Nevertheless, Fay has proven to be a resilient, small system. The
latest NHC intensity forecast holds Fay steady through Tuesday
followed by gradual weakening, with the system forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a day or so, and degenerate into a remnant
trough in a couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 26.6N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 25.6N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 24.4N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 23.4N 50.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 22.8N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 282032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
500 PM AST Mon Sep 28 2026

...FAY HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 45.3W
ABOUT 1325 MI...2130 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 45.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
southwest to west-southwest motion, along with an increase in
forward speed, is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, and
Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in 36 h.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 282031
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 45.3W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 45.3W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 44.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.6N 46.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.4N 48.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.4N 50.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 45.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 281439
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026

...FAY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 44.6W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 44.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 9 mph (15
km/h). A turn to the southwest and then to the west-southwest, along
with an increase in forward motion, is expected over the next couple
of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, and
Fay is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 281439
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026

Fay continues to produce bursts of deep convection, mainly to the
south of the low-level center. A recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
indicated the highest reliable satellite-derived surface winds were
around 25-30 kt, which is in good agreement with the TAFB subjective
Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt. Although some of the
UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are higher, the initial
intensity is held at 30 kt, leaning toward the scatterometer data.

The initial motion is estimated to be south-southwestward, or
210/8 kt. Fay should continue to move south-southwestward to
southwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge
located over the central Atlantic. Track guidance is in fairly good
agreement on this general motion, with the primary differences being
in the along-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly
faster than the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA
corrected-consensus aid.

Fay has maintained persistent convection near the low-level center
within a favorable environment over warm sea surface temperatures,
low vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture. It is
possible Fay could regain tropical storm strength. However, this
favorable environment is expected to be short-lived. Global models
continue to show the system will struggle to produce deep convection
in a day or so as it encounters a more stable air mass and
convergence aloft. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous one, showing the system dissipating late Tuesday and
degenerating into a surface trough shortly thereafter.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 27.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 26.0N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 24.6N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 23.4N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 23.1N 50.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 281438
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC MON SEP 28 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 44.6W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 44.6W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 44.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.0N 45.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.6N 47.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.4N 48.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 50.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 44.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 280848
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026

Fay's convection has persisted a bit longer overnight than
previously seen the last couple of days. Dvorak intensity estimates
appear to have picked up on this, with TAFB providing a subjective
estimate of T2.0/30 kt. Based primarily on Fay's satellite
presentation since the last advisory, the initial intensity was
raised slightly to 30 kt, but Fay remains a tropical depression.

The forecast increase in forward speed, as well as a turn to the
southwest, is becoming more evident on satellite imagery. For this
advisory, the initial motion is set at 210/6 kt. Track guidance
remains in fairly good agreement on Fay tracking to the southwest
and then west-southwest as it is steered by the prevailing
easterlies along the southern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical
high. The greatest uncertainty across the guidance is the forward
speed of the depression. The latest track forecast shows a faster
forward speed over the next 48 h, in close agreement with the HCCA
guidance.

So long as organized deep convection persists and scatterometry
data depicts a closed low, Fay will remain a tropical depression.
Even as SHIPS guidance shows Fay entering a favorable environment
in terms of SSTs, vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture, the
current forecast thinking is that Fay's presence under mid- to
upper-level ridging will drive convergence aloft and weaken its
circulation to the point of dissipation. Global models agree on this
and have Fay ultimately dissipating during the day Wednesday, with
the exception of the UKMET, which holds onto the cyclone
through the end of the week. The latest intensity forecast shows
Fay becoming post-tropical late Tuesday, with dissipation a day or
two later.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 27.9N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 27.0N 44.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 25.5N 46.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 24.4N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 23.2N 49.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026

...FAY PERSISTS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 44.1W
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 44.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11
km/h). A turn to the southwest and then to the west-southwest,
along with an increase in forward motion, is expected over the next
48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen/Mahoney


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 280845
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC MON SEP 28 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 44.1W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 44.1W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 43.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.0N 44.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.5N 46.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.4N 47.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.2N 49.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 44.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN/MAHONEY


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 280236
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026

Little can be said about Fay that hasn't been said already across
previous advisories. The storm continues to undergo rounds of
diurnal, pulsating convection, allowing for it to remain a tropical
depression despite being disorganized and weak. Scatterometry data
from around 2300 UTC also confirms that a closed, albeit weak,
circulation persists. With max winds from this scatterometry pass
reading around 20 kt, the initial intensity for Fay was set at 25
kt.

The initial motion was set at 190/5 kt. Fay is beginning to pick up
speed as it escapes the influence of the subtropical Atlantic high
and is carried more by the prevailing easterlies. A brief
southeastward shift was evident on satellite just a few hours ago,
but now Fay is beginning its forecasted southwestward to
west-southwestward turn. The only notable change in the latest
track forecast was to increase Fay's forward speed during the
latter half of the forecast period, to fall better in line with the
HCCA guidance.

Global models continue to suggest that Fay will degenerate into
a trough during the middle of the week, with post-tropical
transition occuring just before. Fluctuations in Fay's intensity
are expected so long as these diurnal cycles of convection
continue, however with now two consecutive scatterometry passes
depicting Fay's max winds at around 21 kt, the intensity forecast
was left at 25 kt throughout the period, with little in the
guidance and synoptic environment to suggest that Fay will
strengthen meaningfully beyond that before finally dissipating.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 28.5N 43.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 27.6N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 26.3N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 25.2N 46.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 24.5N 48.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1200Z 24.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 280234
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 43.8W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 43.8W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 43.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.6N 44.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.3N 45.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.2N 46.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.5N 48.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.3N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 43.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 280234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 28 2026

...FAY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 43.8W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 43.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 6 mph (9 km/h). A
south-southwest to southwest motion is expected over the next couple
of days, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest with an
increase in forward speed by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fay will likely become a remnant low in a day or two, and
dissipate later in the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 272038
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026

Fay is barely a tropical cyclone. The system basically consists of a
swirl of low-level clouds with a patch of sheared and disorganized
convection located more than 60 n mi south-southwest of the center.
The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in general agreement with
the latest satellite intensity estimates.

Moderate wind shear and stable air should cause convection to pulse,
but it will likely have a hard time organizing and persisting near
the center over the next few days. Based on the expected
environmental conditions and current structure, the system is now
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours, but that
transition could occur much sooner if organized deep convection
does not return. Regardless of this system's status, little change
in strength is expected during the next few days until it
dissipates later this week.

Fay has been moving slowly southward over the past several hours,
and a slow southward to southwestward motion in the low-level flow
is expected over the next few days. The global models show the
system degenerating into a trough in 3 to 4 days, and that is
reflected in this forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 28.9N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 28.1N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 27.1N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 25.9N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 25.1N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0600Z 24.4N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z 24.5N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 272037
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026

...FAY BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 44.0W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1870 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 44.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h). A
south-southwest to southwest motion is expected over the next couple
of days, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest with an
increase in forward speed by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fay will likely become a remnant low in a day or two, and
dissipate later in the week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 272036
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 44.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 44.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 43.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.1N 44.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.1N 44.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.9N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.1N 46.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.4N 48.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.5N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 44.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 271439
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026

This morning's GOES-19 Proxy-VIS satellite presentation indicates
that Fay's cloud pattern has changed little since yesterday, and
the TAFB subjective satellite intensity estimate supports 30 kt for
this advisory.

Modest northerly shear continues to impinge on the north side of
the cyclone, displacing the small pulsating deep bursts of
convection just to the south of the surface center. The GFS/ECMWF
statistical SHIPS intensity guidance indicates little change in the
shear pattern and magnitude and the thermodynamic environment
through mid-week. Therefore, the NHC forecast shows Fay
maintaining depression strength during the next few days. There is
growing confidence due to deterministic and AI-single model
agreement indicating that Fay will finally lose what little
organized convection it has held onto, and eventually open up into
a trough toward the end of the week. The official intensity
forecast follows this scenario and is based on the aforementioned
SHIPS and the HFIP HCCA guidance.

Fay's initial motion is estimated to be south-southeastward, or
160/3 kt. Fay is forecast to move southwestward to
west-southwestward around the southeastern peripheral low-level
flow of a subtropical high located midway between Bermuda and the
cyclone. A few of the deterministic models indicate slight
strengthening of the aforementioned ridge early in the period.
Therefore, a slight increase in forward speed is indicated in the
NHC forecast beyond Tuesday, and this agrees with the better
performing consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 29.3N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 28.8N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 27.6N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 26.4N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 25.3N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 24.6N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 24.2N 48.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 271438
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026

...FAY DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 43.8W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 160 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 43.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h).
A slow turn to the south-southwest to southwest is forecast on
Tuesday followed by a turn toward the west-southwest with an
increase in forward speed by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 271438
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 43.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 43.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 43.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.8N 43.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.6N 43.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.4N 44.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.3N 45.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.6N 47.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 48.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 43.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 270850
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026

Fay's convection has redeveloped once again. Since the last
advisory, an area of deep convection located just south of the
storm's low-level center has grown in size, with cloud-top
temperatures nearing -80°C at times. The latest subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB rated Fay at 1.5/25 kt, while objective
analysis from UW-CIMSS estimates the storm's strength between 29-36
kt. Given Fay's pulsating cycles of convection, the initial
intensity was held steady at 30 kt, with the caveat that brief
periods of slightly stronger max winds are entirely possible.

Initial motion remains slow at 170/3 kt. However, Fay is expected to
gain forward speed soon as it escapes the influence of the Atlantic
subtropical high and is picked up by the prevailing easterlies early
next week. This will cause a turn to the southwest and then west.
The latest track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous
advisory, reflecting only a slight rightward shift to blend better
with HCCA guidance.

As long as Fay remains in an environment characterized by warm SSTs,
its cycles of pulsating convection are expected to continue. It was
anticipated that strong vertical wind shear would work to break
apart Fay's circulation, but the storm has proven resilient. Global
forecast models still suggest that convection will completely
dissipate by the middle of next week at the latest, before Fay opens
up into a trough shortly thereafter. Little was changed in the
latest intensity forecast. Fay is expected to waver right around
tropical depression or even weak tropical storm strength as
convection pulsates, before eventually dissipating for good.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 29.2N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 28.9N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 27.9N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 26.5N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 25.2N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 24.3N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 23.6N 48.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 270849
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 43.9W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 175 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 43.9W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 43.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.9N 43.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.9N 43.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.5N 44.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.2N 45.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.3N 46.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.6N 48.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 43.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 270849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026

...FAY HOLDING STEADY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 43.9W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 175 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 43.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
gradual turn to the southwest and then west is expected over the
next couple of days, along with an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 270236
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026

Although convection around Fay continues to pulsate, the storm's
overall structure has degraded. Vertical wind shear has displaced
the convection to the south of the fully exposed low-level center.
The latest objective Dvorak analysis from UW-CIMSS estimates Fay's
intensity between 30 and 35 kt. With the latest ASCAT pass
only clipping the storm's western flank, the initial intensity was
held steady at 30 kt, mostly to compensate for brief periods of
intensification under these convective pulses.

Forward speed has slowed to a crawl, with the initial motion set at
190/2 kt. Steering flow is very weak as Fay remains embedded
within the southern flank of the Atlantic subtropical high. Track
models continue to converge towards a solution, depicting Fay
turning southwest and then westward heading into early next week as
it is picked up by the prevailing easterlies. The latest NHC track
forecast was little changed from the previous advisory, reflecting
only a slight eastward shift to blend better with HCCA guidance.

Fay's fate will depend on just how long this latest round of
nocturnal convection will last. Simulated satellite imagery from
global models suggest that these convective pulses may continue
into early next week. However, it is possible that Fay could
become post-tropical sooner than currently forecast. The latest
intensity forecast was essentially unchanged, depicting a relatively
steady system on the verge of becoming post-tropical as vertical
wind shear continues to inhibit Fay's chances of convective
redevelopment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 29.6N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 29.4N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 28.4N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 27.4N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 25.8N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 24.6N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 24.0N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 270235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026

...FAY VERY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 43.9W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 43.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn
to the southwest is expected starting early next week, along with
an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 270234
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0300 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 43.9W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 43.9W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 43.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.4N 43.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.4N 43.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.4N 43.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.8N 44.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.6N 46.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 47.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 43.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 262038
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026

The convection around Fay has been mostly stripped away by the wind
shear and the dry air in the environment. The latest TAFB Dvorak
fix was T2.0/30 kt and the objective intensity estimate is in the
range of 29-39 kt. Given that there has been little change in the
intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt
for this advisory.

The cyclone is now slowly moving towards the south, at 180/2 kt. Fay
is expected to continue to move southward into the southern flank of
the subtropical Atlantic high. By early next week, the depression
should turn westward due to the large-scale easterly flow, but there
is still some uncertainty in the timing of this turn. The current
NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one with some small
adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.

The intensity forecast continues to have a high level of
uncertainty as Fay is still over favorably warm sea-surface
temperatures. However, vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air
continue to hinder the depression and preventing a more organized
structure from developing. Both the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS
statistical analysis have mid-level relative humidity less than 40
percent for the next several days. Convection is likely to continue
to pulse up and down, but the current NHC intensity forecast
follows the trend of the previous one showing little change in
strength with only minor changes made. This forecast continues to
maintain Fay as a tropical depression until it become post-tropical
and dissipates by the middle of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 29.8N 43.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 29.6N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 28.9N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 27.8N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 26.5N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 25.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 24.1N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.4N 51.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 262037
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026

...FAY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 43.9W
ABOUT 1120 MI...1800 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 43.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h), this
motion is expected to continue for the next several days with a
gradual increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next several days.!

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 262037
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 43.9W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 43.9W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 43.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.6N 43.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.9N 44.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.8N 44.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.5N 44.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.0N 45.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.1N 47.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.4N 51.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 43.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 261438
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026

Fay has not changed significantly since the previous update. The
tropical cyclone is clearly still being impacted by both wind shear
and dry air. The most recent TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate was
T2.0/30 kt, and the objective intensity estimate is in the range of
31-41 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt
for this advisory.

The cyclone continues to drift towards the west-southwest, at 250/4
kt. A more southerly turn is expected as Fay continues move into the
southern flank of the subtropical Atlantic high. By early next week,
most of the guidance has the depression turning westward due to the
large-scale easterly flow. However there is a bit of uncertainty in
the precise timing of this turn. The current NHC forecast track is
similar to the previous one with some minor adjustments based on the
HCCA forecast aid.

There is a high level of uncertainty in the intensity forecast as
Fay remains over an area of favorably warm sea-surface temperatures,
but vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air will likely continue
to hinder the system, preventing a more organized structure from
developing. Convection is likely to continue pulsing but the current
NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous one showing
little change in strength with only minor adjustments made. This
forecast continues to maintain Fay as a tropical depression until it
becomes post-tropical and dissipates by the middle of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 29.6N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 29.5N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 28.8N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 27.9N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 26.8N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 25.4N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 24.2N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.0N 50.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 261437
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026

...FAY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 44.0W
ABOUT 1130 MI...1820 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 44.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h).
A more southerly turn and an increase in forward speed is expected
to occur over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Papin


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 261437
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 44.0W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 44.0W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 43.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.5N 44.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.8N 44.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 27.9N 44.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.8N 44.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.4N 45.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.2N 46.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 23.0N 50.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 44.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 260841
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026

As anticipated, Fay's convection is redeveloping early this morning,
even as the storm's overall organization degrades. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity analysis from TAFB rated Fay at 2.0/30
kt, while objective analysis from UW-CIMSS rated the intensity
between 31 and 38 kt. With the latest scatterometry pass from around
0000 UTC yielding a maximum wind speed of about 24 kt, and
convection still weaker than 24 hours prior, the initial intensity
was set at 30 kt, and Fay has been downgraded to a tropical
depression.

Storm motion remains slow, at 250/3 kt. Fay is beginning to turn to
the south-southwest as it enters the southern flank of the
subtropical Atlantic high. Track guidance then generally depicts Fay
being picked up by the prevailing easterlies by early next week.
Confidence in the track forecast has increased over the last several
cycles as models begin to better converge on a solution, but still
exhibit a fair amount of disparity in depicting when Fay will turn
to the west. The latest NHC track forecast has shifted slightly to
the left, reflecting a blend of the previous forecast and HCCA, and
overall suggests a sooner turn to the southwest and then west
compared to the previous advisory.

Confidence in Fay's intensity forecast remains low. While the
system remains over favorable SSTs, vertical wind shear and dry
mid-level air suggest an overall hostile environment. Still, Fay's
convection has re-initiated multiple times over the last several
days, just when it appears that the storm is on its last legs. Warm
SSTs may favor this continued, pulsating nature of Fay's
convection, but the current forecast thinking is that the vertical
wind shear currently degrading Fay will make these convective
bursts increasingly difficult to sustain. The latest NHC intensity
forecast keeps Fay below tropical storm strength, however yet
another restrengthening cycle cannot be ruled out. Skilled guidance
seems to favor an overall upward trend in intensity just beyond 24
h, but with Fay currently lacking organization, the latest
intensity forecast keeps the system at relatively steady strength,
before dissipation is expected by the middle of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 29.7N 43.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 29.7N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 29.2N 44.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 28.4N 44.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 27.3N 44.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 26.2N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 23.2N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Evans/Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 260838
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026

...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 43.7W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1790 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 43.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h).
A turn to the south-southwest is expected to occur, followed by an
increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast over the next several days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 260837
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 43.7W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 43.7W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 43.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.7N 44.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.2N 44.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.4N 44.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.3N 44.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.2N 44.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 45.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.2N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 43.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/BERG


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 260259
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026

Fay's structure is falling apart once again. Satellite imagery shows
that most of the deep convection has disappeared over the past
several hours. Recent ASCAT data returned a maximum wind retrieval
of just 24 kt, but given the low bias of the ASCAT due to its
resolution, and the fact that all of the recent subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates still support tropical storm
intensity, the initial intensity is set at a possibly generous 35
kt.

The initial motion remains slow, at 260/3 kt. Steering winds are
expected to remain light as Fay sits within the Atlantic subtropical
high, with a turn to the south-southwest expected within the next 24
h as the storm meanders into the southern flank of the high. Track
forecast models are generally in good agreement for the first 48 h,
before exhibiting larger spread thereafter as Fay moves away from
the influence of the subtropical high. Skilled models suggest that
Fay could be picked up by the prevailing easterlies by early next
week, but the latest forecast calls for Fay to dissipate by then.

Fay has been difficult to forecast, as global models continue to
depict recurring cycles of diurnal convection, which have allowed
Fay to gain a second wind, so to speak, even as environmental
conditions become increasingly hostile. This is likely due to SSTs
remaining favorable for the storm, even as SHIPS guidance suggest
that mid-level moisture is lacking and vertical wind shear remains
moderate. Intensity guidance also depicts another re-strengthening
of Fay just beyond 48 h, likely due to vertical wind shear
relenting. The current thinking behind the forecast, however, is
that with Fay weak enough as it is, the current environment will
continue to degrade its structure and inhibit its ability to
restrengthen. As a result, the latest intensity forecast is
relatively conservative, holding Fay's strength somewhat steady as
it undergoes these cycles of nocturnal convection, before the storm
is expected to open up into a trough by Tuesday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 29.9N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 30.0N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 29.9N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 29.2N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 28.3N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/1200Z 27.2N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 25.4N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 260258
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026

...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 43.4W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 43.4 West. Fay is moving
toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A gradual turn to
the south-southwest is expected to occur, along with an increase in
forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h),
with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 260258
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0300 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 43.4W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 43.4W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 43.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.0N 43.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.9N 43.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.2N 43.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.3N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.2N 44.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.4N 44.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 43.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 252033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026

...FAY WEAKENS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 43.0W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 43.0 West. Fay is moving
toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn to the
southwest is expected to occur along with an increase in forward
speed.

Maximum sustained winds have weakened to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to occur for the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 252033
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026

The convective organization for Fay has taken a turn downward as
wind shear and dry air have started to impact the system. The most
recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a 2.5/35 kt and the objective intensity
from UW-CIMSS is in the range of 37-47 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity has been lowered to 45 kt for this advisory.

The cyclone is expected to gradually weaken as the shear and dry
air build over the cyclone. The statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS
intensity guidance indicates that the northerly shear will continue
to increase over the next several hours. The wind shear will make
it easier for the dry air to penetrate the core of the cyclone and
hinder the development of convection. The simulated ECMWF and GFS
satellite imagery show that Fay loses its convection towards the
end of the weekend, at which point it would become a post-tropical
remnant low. However it is possible that this could occur sooner
given the intensity of the wind shear being over 20 kt and mid-level
relative humidity less than 40 percent. The current NHC intensity
forecast is in line with the guidance suite including the HCCA and
GDMI forecast aids.

Fay's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 250/4 kt
as the storm is being steered by a subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to continue on a
west-southwest to southwest heading through the the forecast period
as the storm continues to weaken and become a vertically shallow
remnant low steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous forecast, however the forward
speed has been increased. The current forecast is still in good
agreement with the GDMI ensemble mean and HCCA corrected consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 29.8N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 29.7N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 29.5N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 29.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 28.5N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 28/0600Z 27.6N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z 26.9N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z 26.1N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 252032
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 43.0W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 43.0W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.7N 43.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 44.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.1N 44.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 28.5N 45.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.6N 45.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.9N 46.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.1N 47.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 43.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 251445
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026

...FAY SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 42.5W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 42.5 West. Fay is moving
toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn to the
west-southwest then southwest at a slower forward speed is expected
over the next few of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the
next few hours. Gradual weakening, however, is still expected
through the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 251437
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 42.5W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 42.5W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 42.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.1N 43.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.0N 43.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.8N 44.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.5N 44.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 28.5N 45.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 27.8N 46.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 42.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 251437
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026

...FAY SLIGHTLY STRONGER..


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 42.5W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 42.5 West. Fay is moving
toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn to the
west-southwest then southwest at a slower forward speed is expected
over the next few of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible over the
next few hours. Gradual weakening, however, is still expected
through the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 251437
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026

Convection continues to increase mostly on the northern side of
Fay, while resisting dry air entrainment based as displayed on the
visible and water vapor imagery. The lastest TAFB Dvorak fix came in
at T2.5/45 kt, however a recent SAR pass found peak winds around 55
kt. In addition, the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are
in the range of 37-42 kt. A recent ASCAT pass showed that some of
the peak wind vectors were around 40 kt, but given the small size
of Fay, it is possible that the ASCAT is undersampling the peak
winds. Based on a compromise of all the available data, the initial
intensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory.

Additional strengthening is still possible over the next several
hours, as Fay is in a region of weak deep-layer shear and
marginally favorable thermodynamic conditions. The statistical
GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance indicates that northerly wind
shear will increase tonight, which should help force dry air
into the cyclone. Therefore, Fay should gradually weaken through
the period, and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone during the
weekend. The current NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.

Fay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 275/3 kt and is
steered by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic.
The initial position for Fay has been adjusted to the left of the
previous advisory and the center of the cyclone appears to have
reformed to the northeast. By Saturday, a gradual turn toward the
west-southwest and southwest is forecast while Fay weakens and
become a vertically shallow remnant low steered by the low-level
flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one
and lies close to the GDMI ensemble mean and the HCCA corrected
consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 30.1N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 30.1N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 30.0N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.8N 44.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 29.5N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 28/0000Z 29.0N 45.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1200Z 28.5N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z 27.8N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 250847
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026

Fay continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and to the
west of the low-level center this morning, remaining resilient to
the dry mid-level environment. Subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates range between 35 to 48 kt. Using these
estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 45 kt for this
advisory.

Given warm sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C, some slight
strengthening is possible during the next 12 h or so. However,
vertical wind shear is forecast to increase later tonight. As the
shear increases and the mid-levels remain quite dry, with relative
humidity values in the mid 30s, Fay should gradually weaken. The
system is expected to lose deep convection once again over the
weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is in good
agreement with the tightly clustered intensity guidance. The only
change to the forecast is that dissipation has been delayed, as the
global models continue to show the remnant low meandering over the
central Atlantic for a few more days.

The storm continues to move westward with an estimated initial
motion of 270/5 kt along the southern periphery of a mid-level
ridge. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then southwest
is expected to being in a day or so as Fay becomes a vertically
shallow cyclone and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The
latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies
near the HCCA corrected consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 29.8N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 29.7N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 29.3N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 27/1800Z 29.0N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0600Z 28.5N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 27.6N 46.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 250846
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.8W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.8W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.7N 44.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.3N 45.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 29.0N 45.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 28.5N 46.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 27.6N 46.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 42.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 250846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026

...FAY MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 42.8W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 42.8 West. Fay is moving
toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn to the
west-southwest then southwest at a slower forward speed is expected
over the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours.
Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected through the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 250249
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026

Fay has developed a more consistent area of deep convection about
its center since the last advisory. Little has changed with the
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates of this
storm, however. CIMSS-UW objective estimates range from 35 to 45
kt, while TAFB rated Fay at 3.0 or 45 kt. Because of this, Fay's
initial intensity has been held steady at 45 kt.

The initial motion remains at 270/5 kt. Fay's forward motion is
expected to remain slow as its steering environment is
characterized by weak easterly winds within the Atlantic
subtropical high. Over the next 24 h, Fay is expected to shift
west-southwest and then southwest as high pressure amplifies to its
west. At the same time, Fay's speed is expected to decrease even
further. The latest track forecast reflects this trend toward the
southwest, and closely follows HCCA guidance.

With convection deepening on satellite imagery, Fay could
experience a brief increase in intensity overnight, before steady
weakening is forecast as the storm experiences increasingly drier
mid-level air and vertical wind shear. While global forecast models
suggest that Fay will lose its convection over the weekend, its
closed circulation may persist into the middle of next week,
allowing Fay to remain a post-tropical remnant low during that
time. The main change for the latest forecast was to reflect a later
dissipation time, but otherwise Fay's overall trend remains the
same.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 29.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 29.8N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 29.7N 43.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 29.5N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 27/1200Z 29.4N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/0000Z 29.0N 46.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 250248
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026

...FAY HOLDING STEADY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 42.3W
ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 42.3 West. Fay is moving
toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and is expected to shift
west-southwest over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible over the next 12
hours. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected through the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Evans/Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 250247
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.3W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.3W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 42.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.8N 43.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.7N 43.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.5N 45.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 29.4N 45.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 29.0N 46.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 42.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 242033
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026

Deep convection continues near and northeast of Fay's center,
though the southwestern portion of the circulation is partially
exposed. There has been no significant change to the satellite
intensity estimates, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. Fay
has some chance to intensify overnight before an increase in
easterly shear helps mix in very dry air outside the central core.
The shear is expected to get fairly strong by the weekend, which
should cause Fay to decay into a post-tropical cyclone in a couple
of days. No significant changes were made to the intensity
forecast.

Fay's initial motion is unchanged at 270/5 kt. A ridge over the
central Atlantic should steer the storm slowly westward during the
next few days. Track guidance is in relatively good agreement, and
the new forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near
the Google DeepMind and HCCA aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 29.8N 41.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 29.8N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 27/0600Z 29.5N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 242032
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 41.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 41.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 41.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.8N 42.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.5N 46.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 41.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 242032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026

...FAY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 41.8W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 41.8 West. Fay is moving
toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A generally westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible overnight before weakening likely
commences by Friday afternoon.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 241440
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026

Resilient Fay has strengthened this morning. Deep convective
curved bands have developed both on the west and east sides of the
cyclone, and a small cold cloud top deep burst of convection is
persisting over the surface center. Based on the improved cloud
pattern and an increase in the Dvorak satellite intensity
estimated from TAFB, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.

Fay remains over warm ocean waters and a favorable upper-level wind
environment. Only a relatively stable, dry surrounding atmosphere
is preventing Fay from strengthening significantly. By the weekend,
deep-layer shear is expected to increase, which should induce a
weakening trend. Subsequently, Fay is forecast to degenerate into
a remnant low.

Fay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/5 kt.
This general motion should continue with a slight reduction
in forward speed through dissipation on Sunday. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the
skilled HFIP HCCA and GDMI TC ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 29.8N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 29.8N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 29.7N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 29.6N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 29.5N 45.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 27/0000Z 29.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 241439
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 41.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 41.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.8N 42.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.7N 42.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.6N 43.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 45.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.5N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 41.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 241439
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026

...FAY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 41.2W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 41.2 West. Fay is moving
toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A generally westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible
through tonight. A gradual weakening trend is expected to commence
on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 240835
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026

Convection has continued to burst in pulsing bands around the
low-level circulation of Fay this morning. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates remain around 30-35 kt, which is
consistent with the scatterometer pass from the previous advisory.
Based on these estimates and the relatively steady state of the
convective organization, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for
this advisory.

The storm is estimated to be moving at an estimated motion 270/6 kt.
A generally westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is
expected to continue during the next few days while Fay is steered
along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge located to the
north. The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the
previous one, as the track model guidance remains tightly clustered.

Fay is traversing sea surface temperatures around 27-28C in an
environment of low vertical wind shear. However, the system is
embedded within a dry air mass, which should prevent significant
strengthening. In about 24-48 hours, vertical wind shear is forecast
to increase, which should cause the system to gradually weaken and
limit deep convection. At that time, Fay is forecast to become a
post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and lies near the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 29.8N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 29.6N 44.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 29.6N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0600Z 29.8N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 240834
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026

...FAY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 40.5W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 40.5 West. Fay is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A generally westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, with
gradual weakening expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 240833
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.5W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.5W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.8N 43.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.6N 44.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.6N 45.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 29.8N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 40.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 240238
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026

Deep convection has persisted since the previous advisory,
especially to the north and northeast of the surface center. Recent
microwave and geostationary satellite data indicate fairly good
confidence that the center is near the southern or southwestern edge
of the convection. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate is
2.5/35 kt and recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS
range from 33-42 kt. A pair of ASCAT passes from around 23/2300 UTC
showed several reliable 32 kt wind vectors. Given the low bias of
the ASCAT instrument due to its resolution, the initial intensity is
raised to 35 kt, in agreement with the TAFB estimate, making Fay a
tropical storm again.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 250
degrees at 8 kt. Fay is expected to continue moving generally
westward for the next few days as it is steered by a narrow low- to
mid-level ridge to its north, although a deceleration is expected in
a couple of days as steering currents weaken. The NHC forecast is
very similar to the previous one, and is fairly close to, but
slightly faster toward the west than, the latest GDMI and HCCA.
Confidence in the NHC track forecast appears to be above average due
to good agreement among the track models.

Fay is forecast to remain over warm water and within a weak vertical
wind shear environment for another 36 hours, but the dry airmass
that Fay is embedded in, with mid-level relative humidity values
between 30 and 40 percent, should prevent significant strengthening.
The NHC forecast shows little change in strength while the shear
remains weak. By 48 hours, increasing northeasterly vertical wind
shear should work to induce gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is
a little higher than the previous one, in that it shows a more
gradual weakening in the 36 to 72 hour period. The NHC forecast is
near the middle of the guidance envelope, and forecast confidence is
medium to high. No changes have been made to the timing of
post-tropical transition or dissipation, but it should be noted that
the UKMET and Canadian models hold onto the low a bit longer than
indicated in the NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 29.8N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 29.8N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 29.9N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 29.9N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 29.7N 44.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 27/0000Z 29.8N 45.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 240234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026

...FAY REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 40.0W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 40.0 West. Fay is moving
toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally
westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next day or two, with gradual weakening expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 240233
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.0W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 40.0W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.8N 41.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.9N 42.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.9N 43.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.7N 44.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.6N 44.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 29.8N 45.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 40.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 232035
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026

Convection has redeveloped around the center of Fay and has
persisted during the day. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the
system still had a well-defined circulation. Therefore, Fay meets
the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone again.
The earlier ASCAT pass showed a maximum wind vector of around
31 kt and the most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was at T1.5/25
kt. Based on the given data, Fay's intensity is estimated to be 30
kt.

The cyclone is moving just a little south of due west, or around
260/8 kt, as it moves to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge to
the northwest. Fay is expected to continue on this general motion
for the next several days. The current NHC track forecast is in
line with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.

There is a brief opportunity for Fay to regain tropical storm
status during the next day or so, however wind shear is expected to
increase again after 36 h. This should lead to the cyclone
gradually weakening again, with the system becoming a post-tropical
remnant low by 60 h, and then dissipating around 96 h, as
suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global
model. The current NHC intensity forecast track is in line with
both the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 30.1N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.9N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 232034
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 39.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 39.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 38.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.9N 40.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 39.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 232034
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026

...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RE-DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 39.2W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 39.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but
gradual weakening should occur thereafter.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 222037
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

Fay remains mainly comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds,
although a few isolated patches of convection are occuring in the
eastern semicircle. There has been no organized convection for more
than 18 h, and based on this it appears than Fay has degenerated to
a remnant low pressure area. There is a possibility of convective
bursts occuring during the next few days. However, the cyclone will
be embedded in a dry air mass with strong upper-level convergence,
and these factors should keep organized convection from
re-developing.

The system is moving west-southwestward, or 240/8 kt, as it rounds
the eastern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to its west and
northwest. A turn toward the west is expected over the next day or
two as the ridge strengthens and builds eastward to the north of
Fay. A turn toward the west-northwest could occur before the remnant
low dissipates between 96-120 h.

This is the last advisory issued on Fay by the National Hurricane
Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 30.8N 35.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 23/0600Z 30.2N 36.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 29.6N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0600Z 29.6N 43.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z 30.0N 46.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 222036
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 35.3W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 35.3W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 34.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.2N 36.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.6N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.6N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 30.0N 46.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 35.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 222036
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

...FAY DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 35.3W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay
was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 35.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west is expected during the
next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken during the next few
days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 221447
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

Fay is currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds
with no convection. A recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the
maximum winds are now near 30 kt, and based on this the cyclone is
downgraded to a tropical depression. Unless convection comes back
in the next several hours, Fay should degenerate into a remnant low
later today.

The system is moving southwestward, or 230/9 kt, as it rounds the
eastern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge to its west. A turn
toward the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the
next day or two as the ridge strengthens and builds eastward to the
north of Fay. Due to a slight southward shift in the guidance
envelope, the new track forecast is a little south of the previous
forecast.

Currently, Fay is in an environment of moderate northwesterly shear
and dry air entrainment. While the dynamical models forecast the
shear to subside during the next 24 h, they also forecast strong
upper-level convergence over the system and continued dry air
entrainment. Based on this and the model simulated satellite
imagery, it appears unlikely that Fay will re-develop persistent
organized convection after the shear decreases. Thus, the new
intensity forecast follows the old forecast in showing a gradual
weakening of the remnant low until dissipation near 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 31.1N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 30.5N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1200Z 29.9N 37.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0000Z 29.5N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 29.4N 41.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z 29.5N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z 30.0N 46.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 221446
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

...FAY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 34.6W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 34.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west is expected
through midweek.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fay is likely to
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 221446
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 34.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
4 M SEAS.... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 34.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 34.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.5N 35.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.9N 37.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 39.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.4N 41.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 43.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.5N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 30.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 34.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220841
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

Deep convection associated with Fay has completely dissipated,
leaving the low-level center fully exposed on satellite imagery.
Given the lack of organized deep convection over the past several
hours, Fay's remaining time as a tropical cyclone is limited unless
convection redevelops soon. Objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates currently range from 25 to 44 kt. Based on a
blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is maintained at 35
kt for this advisory.

The system is moving southwestward, or 230/8 kt, as it rounds the
eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its west. A turn toward
the west-southwest and then the west is expected over the next day
or two, as the ridge strengthens. The latest NHC track forecast is
near the previous nudged slightly towards the right, towards the
GDMI and HCCA aids.

A combination of moderate wind shear and dry air entrainment should
cause Fay to gradually spin down and weaken. Although shear may
relax somewhat in a few days, as the system moves over slightly
warmer sea surface temperatures, model-simulated satellite imagery
suggests that any returning convection will occur only in
intermittent bursts. Based on current trends and model guidance, the
NHC intensity forecast calls for Fay to gradually weaken, and become
a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate into an open
trough by the end of the period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 31.8N 33.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 31.2N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 29.7N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1800Z 29.8N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z 29.9N 43.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z 30.1N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220840
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

...FAY FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 33.7W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 33.7 West. Fay is moving
toward the southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A gradual turn toward the
west-southwest and then west is expected through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fay is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220840
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 33.7W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 33.7W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 33.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.2N 35.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N 40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.8N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.9N 43.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 30.1N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 33.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220233
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

Fay is feeling the effects of strong west-northwesterly wind shear
tonight. Nearly all of the convection is displaced well to the east
of the fully exposed low-level center, and low-level water vapor
imagery shows dry air enveloping much of the system. Recent
objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased
over the past several hours and range from 25-38 kt. Based on the
degraded satellite presentation and the downward trend in intensity
estimates, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.

The tropical storm is moving southwestward, or 215/07 kt, along the
southeastern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge centered west of
the system. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest and then west
is expected over the next few days as the ridge strengthens and
expands eastward across the central Atlantic. The official NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains close
to the HCCA solution.

Continued weakening is expected on Tuesday as dry mid-level air
wraps around the periphery of Fay. In fact, simulated satellite
imagery from the ECMWF and GFS suggests that Fay may struggle to
maintain organized convection as early as Tuesday, and the system
could become post-tropical by that time. However, the strong
upper-level trough currently producing significant wind shear over
the region is forecast to lift away from Fay over the next day or
so, while the cyclone may move over slightly warmer waters in the
coming days. These changes could briefly allow for some shallow
convection to redevelop around midweek, although any such resurgence
is expected to be short-lived. Given the overall unfavorable
environment and anticipated weakening, the latest NHC forecast shows
Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday night.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 32.3N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 31.6N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 30.7N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0000Z 29.7N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/1200Z 29.5N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z 29.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z 29.5N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220233
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 33.1W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 215 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 33.1W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 32.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N 34.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.7N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.7N 39.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.5N 41.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.5N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 33.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ADAMS


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220233
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2026

...FAY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 33.1W
ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 33.1 West. Fay is moving
toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn toward the
west-southwest then west is expected through midweek.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay is likely to
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Adams


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 212036
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026

Strong west-northwesterly vertical wind shear has been affecting
Fay today, with most or all deep convection being displaced well
east of the well-defined low-level center. Scatterometer data
suggest that the peak winds have diminished to near 40 kt, which
will be the advisory intensity estimate.

Global model forecasts show that a strong upper-level trough will
shift eastward away from Fay during the next day or so. This will
likely lessen the wind shear over the system by late tomorrow.
However, the Decay-SHIPS guidance indicates that the cyclone should
be ingesting drier air during the next few days. This is consistent
with simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model, which
shows the system losing most of its associated deep convection
during the next 48 hours or so. Therefore the NHC forecast shows
Fay becoming a post-tropical remnant low by tomorrow night, and this
event could occur even sooner than that.

Fay is moving slowly south-southwestward along the eastern side of
a mid-level high. The cyclone is expected to turn southwestward
and then westward around the southern portion of the high until
dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous few NHC forecasts. This is also in good agreement with
the latest GFS prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 33.1N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 32.4N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 31.3N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z 29.5N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 212034
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 32.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 32.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 32.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.4N 33.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.3N 34.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.9N 38.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 29.6N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 32.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 212034
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026

...FAY GRADUALLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 32.2W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 210 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 32.2 West. Fay is
moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a gradual
turn toward the southwest and west is expected during the next few
days

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay is
likely to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by late
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 211452
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026

Fay continues to be affected by strong west-northwesterly vertical
wind shear. Practically all of the deep convection is confined to
a band of showers and thunderstorms located well to the
east of the well-defined low-level center. Using a blend of
subjective and objective intensity estimates, the advisory
intensity is reduced to 45 kt.

Global model simulations show a strong upper-level trough shifting
eastward from Fay during the next day or two. This evolution would
allow for some relaxation of the shear, and this is also indicated
by the Decay SHIPS model. However, the model guidance also
indicates that the system is likely to encounter a drier low- to
mid-level air mass, which should inhibit re-strengthening.
Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF output shows Fay's deep
convection mostly dissipated during the next few days. Therefore
the official forecast, like the previous one, shows the cyclone
degenerating into a remnant low by 48 hours.

Fay is now moving southward at around 4 kt, along the eastern side
of a mid-level high. Over the next several days, the cyclone
is expected turn southwestward to west-southwestward and move
around the southeastern and southern periphery of the high. This
should keep the system over the open Atlantic through dissipation
later in the week. Not much change has been made to the previous
NHC track forecast, which remains in good agreement with the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean and corrected model consensus, HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 33.3N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 32.6N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 30.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 30.0N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 24/0000Z 29.4N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1200Z 29.3N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1200Z 29.3N 43.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 211451
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 32.0W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 32.0W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 31.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.6N 32.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.7N 35.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.0N 37.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 39.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.3N 40.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 29.3N 43.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 32.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 211451
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026

...FAY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 32.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 32.0 West. Fay is
moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn toward
the southwest and west-southwest is expected over the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay could
degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 210836
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026

Fay is now feeling the effects of strong vertical wind shear.
Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has become
significantly vertical tilted, with the low-level center now well
north-northwest of the mid-level center. The initial intensity is
nudged down to 55 kt, which lies at the high end of the latest
satellite intensity estimates.

Continued strong northerly vertical wind shear, along with
intrusions of dry air should cause Fay to steadily weaken over the
next few days. In fact, simulated satellite images from the GFS and
ECMWF models show deep convection completely dissipating within the
next 24 hours due to the harsh atmospheric conditions. Based on the
latest guidance and satellite trends, the new forecast calls for a
faster rate of weakening, with the transition to a remnant low now
expected by 48 hours and dissipation in 4-5 days. This forecast lies
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Fay appears to have turned southward at a slow pace, as expected, as
the mid- to upper-level trough over the north Atlantic lifts out. A
faster southwestward motion is forecast over the next few days as a
low- to mid-level ridge becomes established to the northeast of the
cyclone. This pattern should keep the system over the open Atlantic
through dissipation later in the week. Little change was made to the
previous track forecast, and this prediction is in best agreement
with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 33.8N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 33.2N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 32.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 31.2N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 30.4N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0600Z 29.5N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 210836
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 32.1W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 155 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 32.1W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 32.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.2N 32.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.3N 33.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.2N 34.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.4N 36.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.6N 40.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 29.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 32.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 210836
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026

...FAY BEGINS TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 32.1W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 155 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 32.1 West. Fay is moving
very slowly toward the south-southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
faster motion to the southwest is anticipated during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Fay could
degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 210240
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026

Fay is beginning to feel the effects of increasing northwesterly
shear over its circulation, with satellite images showing its
outflow pattern becoming restricted in that quadrant. However, an
ASCAT-C pass received after the prior advisory showed a peak wind
retrieval of 53 kt, and that the center was a little further south
and east of what was previously estimated. Assuming some wind
undersampling of this instrument along with a slight increase in the
DMINT and DPRINT intensity estimates, the initial intensity is being
nudged up to 60 kt for this advisory, making Fay just shy of
hurricane intensity.

Fay appears to have turned east-southeastward tonight, with an
estimated motion of 130/4 kt. Over the next day or so, a building
ridge to the northwest should continue to turn Fay southward and
then southwestward with gradually increasing forward motion. The NHC
track forecast this cycle was shifted a bit southward compared to
the previous one, but converges close to the previous forecast
track in 60-72 h. This track forecast remains in good agreement with
the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google
DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aids.

The tropical storm is just about out of time to intensify further,
though it remains possible Fay could briefly become a hurricane
tonight before the northwesterly vertical wind shear becomes
prohibitively strong from an amplifying upper-level ridge to the
northwest. This shear will ultimately import very dry mid-level air
into Fay's core, causing the cyclone to quickly decouple in the
next 24-36 h. The global and hurricane-regional model guidance
remains in good agreement on Fay struggling to produce organized
convection by 48-60 h, and that continues to be when the NHC
forecast indicates the cyclone becoming post-tropical. The NHC
intensity forecast is largely an update of the prior one beyond the
next 12 h, in good agreement with the intensity aid consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 34.1N 31.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 33.7N 31.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 30.8N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/0000Z 29.6N 39.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/0000Z 29.6N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 210237
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Mon Sep 21 2026

...FAY NEARLY A HURRICANE BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 31.9W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 31.9 West. Fay is now
moving toward the east-southeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the
southwest is anticipated on Monday which should continue through the
early part of this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change is strength is forecast tonight,
but Fay should begin to weaken on Monday. The tropical cyclone is
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by the middle of this
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 210236
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 31.9W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 31.9W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 32.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.7N 31.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.8N 35.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.1N 37.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.6N 39.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.6N 42.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 31.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 202035
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

A few more convective bursts have occurred near the center of Fay in
the last couple of hours as seen in the visible satellite imagery.
Infrared satellite imagery indicates that some of the cloud tops
have cooled to near -70 degrees C with the latest batch of
convection. The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS
are in the range of 45-51 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix
was a T3.5/55 kt. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has
been raised to 55 kt, on the upper end of the satellite estimates.

The environment that Fay is located in still has moisture for
additional convective development and an approaching mid- to
upper-level trough should allow for Fay to further intensify for
about 12 hours or so. Once the trough lifts on Monday, wind shear
should increase and dry air should find its way into the cyclone.
This will lead to a gradual weakening of Fay. The current NHC
intensity forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant
low by Tuesday and then dissipate near the end of the week. The
intensity forecast is still a little higher than the model guidance
in the short term as Fay's structure is over performing expectations
due to the expected baroclinic support from the trough. It is still
possible that Fay could reach hurricane strength sometime tonight.

Fay is still moving slowly and off toward the north-northeast, with
the initial motion estimated around 020/5 kt. This general motion is
expected to continue for about 12 hours or. However, a low- to
mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north by Monday. This
ridge in turn will force Fay to turn southwestward and gradually
accelerate over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC
forecast track is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few
minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and
GDMI track aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 34.4N 32.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 34.3N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 33.6N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 31.4N 35.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1800Z 29.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 202034
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

...FAY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD REACH HURRICANE
STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 32.7W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 32.7 West. Fay is moving
toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) this general motion
is expected to continue through the rest of the day. Afterwards a
turn to the southwest is expected on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight,
and Fay could approach hurricane intensity. A gradual weakening
trend is expected to begin on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 202033
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.7W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.7W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 32.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.3N 32.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.6N 32.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.5N 33.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.4N 35.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.5N 36.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.8N 38.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 32.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 201620

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 20.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 125.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2026 0 11.1N 125.0W 1004 37
0000UTC 21.09.2026 12 12.4N 127.3W 1003 37
1200UTC 21.09.2026 24 13.5N 130.1W 1001 36
0000UTC 22.09.2026 36 14.2N 131.4W 998 44
1200UTC 22.09.2026 48 14.8N 132.3W 995 45
0000UTC 23.09.2026 60 15.2N 132.1W 991 47
1200UTC 23.09.2026 72 14.7N 131.5W 987 48
0000UTC 24.09.2026 84 14.9N 130.1W 985 50
1200UTC 24.09.2026 96 15.5N 128.8W 983 53
0000UTC 25.09.2026 108 16.4N 127.4W 980 55
1200UTC 25.09.2026 120 17.4N 125.8W 975 58
0000UTC 26.09.2026 132 18.6N 124.4W 977 56
1200UTC 26.09.2026 144 20.1N 123.5W 983 51
0000UTC 27.09.2026 156 21.7N 123.0W 993 43
1200UTC 27.09.2026 168 22.7N 122.8W 1001 31

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N 33.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 20.09.2026 0 34.0N 33.2W 1008 34
0000UTC 21.09.2026 12 34.3N 32.3W 1008 36
1200UTC 21.09.2026 24 34.0N 32.0W 1011 35
0000UTC 22.09.2026 36 33.1N 32.8W 1014 32
1200UTC 22.09.2026 48 32.1N 34.2W 1017 27
0000UTC 23.09.2026 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 14.8N 106.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2026 12 15.0N 106.2W 1007 23
1200UTC 21.09.2026 24 15.6N 105.3W 1005 27
0000UTC 22.09.2026 36 15.5N 104.6W 1001 29
1200UTC 22.09.2026 48 15.0N 104.0W 997 37
0000UTC 23.09.2026 60 15.3N 103.5W 993 42
1200UTC 23.09.2026 72 16.5N 103.9W 988 50
0000UTC 24.09.2026 84 18.8N 104.5W 975 65
1200UTC 24.09.2026 96 21.2N 105.2W 1001 32
0000UTC 25.09.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.3N 19.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2026 84 12.8N 20.8W 1007 32
1200UTC 24.09.2026 96 13.8N 23.0W 1007 31
0000UTC 25.09.2026 108 15.1N 24.3W 1008 33
1200UTC 25.09.2026 120 16.0N 25.7W 1008 32
0000UTC 26.09.2026 132 17.4N 27.2W 1009 36
1200UTC 26.09.2026 144 18.7N 30.0W 1010 36
0000UTC 27.09.2026 156 18.4N 30.5W 1011 27
1200UTC 27.09.2026 168 18.5N 31.6W 1012 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.5N 154.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2026 84 15.5N 154.8W 1004 31
1200UTC 24.09.2026 96 15.5N 155.8W 1002 31
0000UTC 25.09.2026 108 15.5N 156.6W 1000 35
1200UTC 25.09.2026 120 15.7N 157.4W 998 38
0000UTC 26.09.2026 132 15.6N 158.5W 995 41
1200UTC 26.09.2026 144 15.3N 159.0W 994 45
0000UTC 27.09.2026 156 14.8N 159.8W 991 45
1200UTC 27.09.2026 168 14.4N 160.6W 990 49

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 34.6N 68.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2026 96 34.6N 68.0W 1010 36
0000UTC 25.09.2026 108 34.8N 68.8W 1008 36
1200UTC 25.09.2026 120 35.7N 69.1W 1005 36
0000UTC 26.09.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 40.4N 12.9E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2026 120 40.4N 12.9E 1010 28
0000UTC 26.09.2026 132 38.8N 10.5E 1010 30
1200UTC 26.09.2026 144 37.5N 8.0E 1012 26
0000UTC 27.09.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 10.0N 97.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2026 144 10.5N 99.3W 1003 29
0000UTC 27.09.2026 156 11.6N 101.5W 1001 32
1200UTC 27.09.2026 168 13.5N 103.6W 998 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 13.1N 139.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2026 168 13.1N 139.9W 1003 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 201620


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 201456
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

Deep convection continues to build near the center of Fay over the
last several hours. The current objective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS are in the range of 39-52 kt, and the most recent TAFB
Dvorak fix was a T3.0/45 kt. In addition, there was an ASCAT pass
that showed a peak wind vector of 43 kt. Given the uncertainties
due to undersampling, the initial intensity for the storm has been
raised to 50 kt. The cyclone continues to remain very compact with
its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend out to about 40
n mi.

Both a relatively moist environment and positive interactions
with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow Fay to
further intensify for the next 12 to 24 hours. After the trough
lifts on Monday, the increase in wind shear and dry air should lead
to a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The current NHC forecast
calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and
then dissipate by the end of the week. The official intensity
forecast is a little higher than the model guidance in the short
term to account for the storm's structure being more improved and
the expected baroclinic support from the trough. This small system
could approach hurricane strength later today or tonight.

Fay is slowly moving off to the northeast, with the initial motion
estimated around 010/5 kt. This general motion should continue for
the rest of the day. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected
to build to the north of the storm by Monday, which will cause Fay
to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction
over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC track
forecast is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few
minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with HCCA and
GDMI.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 34.1N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 34.3N 32.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 33.9N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 32.9N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 31.7N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 30.6N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/1200Z 29.8N 37.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/1200Z 28.8N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 201455
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

...TROPICAL STORM FAY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 33.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 33.0 West. Fay is moving
toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continues through the rest of the day. Afterwards a turn to the
southwest is expected on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or so, and Fay could approach hurricane intensity tonight.
A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 201455
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 33.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 33.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 33.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.3N 32.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.9N 32.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.9N 32.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N 34.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.6N 35.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.8N 37.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N 41.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 33.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200842
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

Deep convection has been increasing near the center of the cyclone
and in curved bands on its north side over the past several hours.
The latest satellite intensity estimates have also increased and
range from 35 to 47 kt. Considering these data and the ASCAT pass
from last night, the initial wind speed is nudged up to 40 kt. This
makes the system Tropical Storm Fay. The storm is quite compact,
with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extent only about
40 n mi from the center and the associated convection extends about
100-150 n mi across.

The combination of relatively moist air and baroclinic enhancements
from an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should cause Fay to
gain some more strength during the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the
trough is expected to lift out on Monday, and an increase in shear
and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for
strengthening and cause weakening by that time. Fay will likely
become a remnant low on Tuesday and dissipate by the end of the week
as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions.
The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one,
and lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term given
the improvement in the storm's organization and expected baroclinic
support.

Fay is drifting to the north-northeast, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 020/4 kt. This general motion should continue
for about 24 hours. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is
anticipated to build to the north of the storm on Monday, and that
should cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in
that direction during the early and middle portions of the week. The
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near a blend
of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 33.7N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 34.1N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 34.0N 32.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 33.3N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 32.0N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 31.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z 30.1N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z 28.9N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 33.1W
ABOUT 450 MI...730 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 33.1 West. Fay is moving
toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion is expected for about another day. A turn to the southwest
is expected on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the
next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200840
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 33.1W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 33.1W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 33.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.1N 32.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.0N 32.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.3N 32.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 32.0N 33.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.0N 34.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 30.1N 36.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.9N 40.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 33.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 200237
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 33.2W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 33.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).
The depression is expected to generally move to the northeast
through Sunday before turning eastward Sunday night. A
southwestward motion is expected to start on Monday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
possible during the next 24 hours, and the depression is expected
to become a tropical storm on Sunday. A weakening trend is expected
to begin by Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 200237
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 AM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

The convective organization of the depression has increased
somewhat since the last advisory, with multiple convective bands in
the northern semicircle. This increase is reflected in the various
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates now
suggesting the cyclone has reached tropical storm strength.
However, an ASCAT-C overpass showed maximum winds near 30 kt. Based
mainly on that the initial intensity will remain 30 kt. Cirrus
cloud motion indicate that an upper-level cyclonic shear axis is
located near or just south of the center, with very strong
upper-level westerly flow over the southern part of the low-level
circulation.

The initial motion is 020/4 kt. The depression is in an area of
weak steering currents between a low- to mid-level ridge to the
east and a deep-layer mid-latitude trough to the northwest. During
the next couple of days, the southern portion of this trough is
expected to weaken, with a low- to mid-level ridge developing to
the west and northwest of the tropical cyclone. This should result
in the cyclone stopping its north-northeastward motion and turning
toward the southwest. A general southwestward motion is then likely
until the system dissipates. The track guidance has shifted a bit
westward after 36 h, and the new forecast track is also nudged a
bit west of the previous track.

The dynamical models are forecasting a small upper-level low to
develop along the cyclonic shear axis near or south of the tropical
depression during the next 12 h or so. This is likely create a less
hostile shear environment around the depression that should allow
some intensification. After 24 h, the models are in good agreement
that strong upper-level northerly or northwesterly winds will move
over the cyclone, creating strong shear and causing weakening.
While the models forecast the shear to diminish after 48-60 h, the
cyclone or its remnants will be in an area of dry air and
subsidence that cause cause the convection to dissipate. The new
intensity forecast shows the depression becoming a tropical storm
for a day or so, followed by weakening to a remnant low between
60-72 h. Based on the dynamical models, the remnant low is forecast
to weaken to a trough between 96-120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 33.3N 33.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 33.8N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 34.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 33.6N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 23/0000Z 30.4N 35.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0000Z 29.0N 39.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 200236
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 33.2W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 33.2W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 33.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.8N 33.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.0N 32.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.6N 32.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.7N 32.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.6N 33.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.4N 35.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N 39.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 33.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 192034
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026

A new burst of convection has formed over the depression, that
mostly covers the center of the system. However, the bulk of the
convection is still on the northern side of the cyclone at this
time, implying that some wind shear is still affecting it. The most
recent TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which is the same as the
previous cycle. Therefore, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt
for this advisory.

Tropical Depression Six is still moving slowly, but has started to
show a bit more motion towards the north-northeast. The cyclone
should move more northeastward for roughly the next 36 h as a
trough to the north weakens a low- to mid-level ridge to the
northeast. Following this, at around 48 h, the ridge should build
back towards the west, which in turn will force the cyclone to move
southwestward for the rest of the forecast period. The current NHC
forecast track is very similar to the previous forecast track with
small adjustments to the track and speed, and remains in good
agreement with HCCA and GDMI.

The cyclone should move into a slightly more favorable environment,
between two areas of intense shear, and so there a good chance for
intensification to occur for the next day or so. After 36 h, the
system should move into an area of higher shear as the previously
mentioned trough moves closer. This should lead to a gradual
weakening of the system. The depression is expected to become a
post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then dissipate around
120 h. There is still some uncertainty in the forecast of when the
cyclone will become post-tropical and then dissipate, as both could
possibly occur sooner than what is currently forecast. The new NHC
intensity forecast is still in the middle of the guidance envelope,
and is closely align with HCCA and just under GDMI for peak
intensity.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 32.9N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 33.3N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 33.8N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 33.7N 32.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 32.9N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 31.7N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 30.5N 34.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z 28.6N 38.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 192033
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 33.4W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 33.4W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 33.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.3N 33.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.8N 32.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.7N 32.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 32.9N 32.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.7N 33.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.5N 34.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.6N 38.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 33.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 192033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 33.4W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 33.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h).
The system is expected to generally move to the northeast for the
next day or so, before turning toward the southwest in a couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After
that time, gradual weakening is expected to occur.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 191622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06L ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 33.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2026 0 32.5N 33.6W 1013 23
0000UTC 20.09.2026 12 33.1N 33.2W 1012 26
1200UTC 20.09.2026 24 34.3N 33.2W 1011 31
0000UTC 21.09.2026 36 34.7N 32.4W 1011 29
1200UTC 21.09.2026 48 34.6N 31.8W 1014 31
0000UTC 22.09.2026 60 33.8N 32.5W 1016 28
1200UTC 22.09.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.4N 108.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2026 36 14.6N 108.0W 1006 23
1200UTC 21.09.2026 48 15.3N 107.2W 1005 26
0000UTC 22.09.2026 60 15.2N 106.1W 1002 30
1200UTC 22.09.2026 72 15.4N 105.2W 999 34
0000UTC 23.09.2026 84 16.2N 105.0W 994 44
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 17.8N 105.5W 983 58
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 21.0N 105.9W 970 73
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 25.6N 107.6W 1001 26
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 30.8N 109.1W 1003 22
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 35.4N 110.7W 1004 19
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.2N 130.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 60 14.5N 131.1W 1005 28
1200UTC 22.09.2026 72 15.1N 131.8W 1005 30
0000UTC 23.09.2026 84 15.3N 132.2W 1002 30
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 15.2N 132.0W 1001 33
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 15.1N 131.2W 998 39
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 15.1N 130.4W 997 40
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 15.2N 129.4W 995 38
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 16.2N 128.0W 995 40
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 17.2N 127.2W 994 40
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 18.3N 125.8W 995 42

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.3N 152.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 15.0N 153.9W 1005 25
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 14.4N 155.6W 1003 28
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 15.2N 156.0W 1002 30
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 15.3N 156.1W 1000 32
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 15.7N 156.5W 997 35
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 15.6N 156.9W 994 39
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 15.6N 157.7W 992 41

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.1N 19.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 12.1N 19.4W 1007 26
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 12.9N 20.6W 1006 30
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 14.9N 22.7W 1007 34
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 16.0N 24.7W 1008 33
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 17.0N 26.4W 1007 42
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 18.2N 28.4W 1010 39
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 17.4N 30.9W 1011 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 10.9N 97.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 10.6N 98.4W 1003 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191622


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 191449
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026

A recent ASCAT pass showed that the system NHC has been monitoring
southwest of the Azores (AL99) has a well-defined circulation and
peak wind vectors were around 26 kt. The stucture of the cyclone
still has the bulk of the convection on the northern side, and that
area of convection has persisted for more than 12 hours. However,
the cyclone appears to lie along the northern edge of a zone of
strong westerly shear. In addition the most recent TAFB
Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which has persisted since the last
forecast cycle. Based on the given data, this system has been
started as Tropical Depression Six with an initial intensity of 30
kt.

Tropical Depression Six is currently meandering, however it should
start to increase in speed and move generally to the northeast for
the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens the ridge to the
northeast. Around 48 h, the ridge is expected to build back, which
will force the cyclone to move towards the southwest. The system is
expected to remain on this heading for the rest of the forecast
period. The current NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the
HCCA and GDMI.

The depression is expected to move into a slightly more favorable
environment, between two areas of intense shear. This could allow
for some slight intensification to occur for the next day or so.
After 36 h, the system is expected to move into an area of higher
shear as the previously mentioned trough starts to negatively impact
the cyclone, thus resulting in gradual weakening. The system is
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then
dissipate around 120 h. However, the guidance from the GFS and ECMWF
show significant differences in when dissipation occurs. The GFS has
the cyclone dissipating much sooner around 72 h, while the ECMWF has
dissipation occuring around 120 h. The current NHC intensity
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly
under HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 32.6N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 191448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 33.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 33.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). This
system is expected to generally move to the northeast for the next
24 to 36 hours, before turning toward the southwest in a couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, however
after that gradual weakening is expected to occur.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 191448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 33.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 33.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 33.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 33.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG