Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for SIX-26 Off-shore on 19 Sep 2026 15:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for SIX-26

Off-shore

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

19/09 16:22 WTNT82EGRR191622

19/09 14:51 WTNT41KNHC191449

19/09 14:50 WTNT31KNHC191448

19/09 14:50 WTNT21KNHC191448

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 191622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 19.09.2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06L ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 33.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.09.2026 0 32.5N 33.6W 1013 23
0000UTC 20.09.2026 12 33.1N 33.2W 1012 26
1200UTC 20.09.2026 24 34.3N 33.2W 1011 31
0000UTC 21.09.2026 36 34.7N 32.4W 1011 29
1200UTC 21.09.2026 48 34.6N 31.8W 1014 31
0000UTC 22.09.2026 60 33.8N 32.5W 1016 28
1200UTC 22.09.2026 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.4N 108.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.09.2026 36 14.6N 108.0W 1006 23
1200UTC 21.09.2026 48 15.3N 107.2W 1005 26
0000UTC 22.09.2026 60 15.2N 106.1W 1002 30
1200UTC 22.09.2026 72 15.4N 105.2W 999 34
0000UTC 23.09.2026 84 16.2N 105.0W 994 44
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 17.8N 105.5W 983 58
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 21.0N 105.9W 970 73
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 25.6N 107.6W 1001 26
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 30.8N 109.1W 1003 22
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 35.4N 110.7W 1004 19
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.2N 130.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.09.2026 60 14.5N 131.1W 1005 28
1200UTC 22.09.2026 72 15.1N 131.8W 1005 30
0000UTC 23.09.2026 84 15.3N 132.2W 1002 30
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 15.2N 132.0W 1001 33
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 15.1N 131.2W 998 39
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 15.1N 130.4W 997 40
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 15.2N 129.4W 995 38
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 16.2N 128.0W 995 40
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 17.2N 127.2W 994 40
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 18.3N 125.8W 995 42

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.3N 152.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 15.0N 153.9W 1005 25
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 14.4N 155.6W 1003 28
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 15.2N 156.0W 1002 30
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 15.3N 156.1W 1000 32
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 15.7N 156.5W 997 35
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 15.6N 156.9W 994 39
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 15.6N 157.7W 992 41

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.1N 19.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2026 96 12.1N 19.4W 1007 26
0000UTC 24.09.2026 108 12.9N 20.6W 1006 30
1200UTC 24.09.2026 120 14.9N 22.7W 1007 34
0000UTC 25.09.2026 132 16.0N 24.7W 1008 33
1200UTC 25.09.2026 144 17.0N 26.4W 1007 42
0000UTC 26.09.2026 156 18.2N 28.4W 1010 39
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 17.4N 30.9W 1011 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 162 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+162 : 10.9N 97.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2026 168 10.6N 98.4W 1003 27

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 191622

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 191449
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026

A recent ASCAT pass showed that the system NHC has been monitoring
southwest of the Azores (AL99) has a well-defined circulation and
peak wind vectors were around 26 kt. The stucture of the cyclone
still has the bulk of the convection on the northern side, and that
area of convection has persisted for more than 12 hours. However,
the cyclone appears to lie along the northern edge of a zone of
strong westerly shear. In addition the most recent TAFB
Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt, which has persisted since the last
forecast cycle. Based on the given data, this system has been
started as Tropical Depression Six with an initial intensity of 30
kt.

Tropical Depression Six is currently meandering, however it should
start to increase in speed and move generally to the northeast for
the next 36 h as a trough to the north weakens the ridge to the
northeast. Around 48 h, the ridge is expected to build back, which
will force the cyclone to move towards the southwest. The system is
expected to remain on this heading for the rest of the forecast
period. The current NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the
HCCA and GDMI.

The depression is expected to move into a slightly more favorable
environment, between two areas of intense shear. This could allow
for some slight intensification to occur for the next day or so.
After 36 h, the system is expected to move into an area of higher
shear as the previously mentioned trough starts to negatively impact
the cyclone, thus resulting in gradual weakening. The system is
expected to become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and then
dissipate around 120 h. However, the guidance from the GFS and ECMWF
show significant differences in when dissipation occurs. The GFS has
the cyclone dissipating much sooner around 72 h, while the ECMWF has
dissipation occuring around 120 h. The current NHC intensity
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is slightly
under HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 32.6N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 191448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
300 PM GMT Sat Sep 19 2026

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 33.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 33.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). This
system is expected to generally move to the northeast for the next
24 to 36 hours, before turning toward the southwest in a couple of
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, however
after that gradual weakening is expected to occur.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Katz/Berg

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 191448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062026
1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 33.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 33.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 33.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.0N 33.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.6N 33.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 33.8N 32.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.4N 32.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.4N 32.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.0N 33.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.9N 37.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 33.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KATZ/BERG

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