Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for POLO-26
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 300231
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Polo Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

...POLO DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 108.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Polo were located near
latitude 30.5 North, longitude 108.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: A Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of southern
New Mexico and far western Texas where strong gusty winds are
possible tonight in association with Polos remnants. Refer to
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Polo.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 292331
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
500 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

...POLO RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 108.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northwestern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far
western Texas should continue to monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 108.5 West. Polo is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Polo is expected to dissipate within the next
several hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are still
occurring well inland over northwestern Mexico.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today
and tonight in association with Polos remnants. Refer to products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for
additional information.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated
maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 292122 CCA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 37...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
200 PM MST TUE SEP 29 2026

CORRECTED THE NEXT ADVISORY SECTION

...POLO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 109.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WARNINGS AND
WATCHES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND FAR
WESTERN TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 21 MPH (33 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF POLO WILL
CROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE REMNANTS OF POLO SHOULD CONTINUE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN
TEXAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF POLO MOVES
FARTHER INLAND, AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE REMNANTS OF POLO ARE LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO AND WILL CONTINUE SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WESTERN TEXAS WHERE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH POLOA S REMNANTS. REFER TO PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SONORA WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 292120 CCA
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

CORRECTED TO ADD NEXT INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY TIME

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 109.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 109.7W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 32.6N 105.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 109.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 292037
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

Since the last advisory, Polo has moved northeastward across the
Gulf of California and made landfall in the Mexican state of Sonora
just east of Guaymas. The cyclone is now weakening as it moves
farther inland and it is estimated that it is now a 55-kt
tropical storm. Rapid weakening is expected as Polo crosses
northwestern Mexico, and it is likely that the surface circulation
will dissipate tonight. A 12-h position is included in this
advisory, but it is likely to be the position of a trough or
vorticity maximum and not a circulation center.

The initial motion is now 040/18. Polo and its remnants are expected
to move rapidly northeastward through Wednesday in the flow on the
east side of a mid-latitude trough over the southwestern United
States. This track will bring the system across northwestern Mexico
and into portions of New Mexico and Texas as it interacts with the
trough. This evolution will contribute to heavy rainfall, flash
flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern
Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and
local National Weather Service offices for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across
northwestern Mexico near the center of Polo through tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will continue to impact the
southern and central portions of Sonora today. This rainfall is
expected to produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will
support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the Southwest
U.S. into the Southern High Plains today into early Wednesday.

3. Even after the surface circulation of Polo dissipates, its low-
to mid-level remnants may produce strong gusty winds well inland
over the higher terrain of northwest Mexico, southern New Mexico,
and far western Texas.

4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely to persist along
portions of the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for
the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 29.0N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/0600Z 32.6N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 292036
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 PM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

...POLO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 109.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF EL PASO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all coastal warnings and
watches.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in northwestern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far
western Texas should continue to monitor the progress of Polo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 109.7 West. Polo is now
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an additional increase in forward speed
through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Polo will
cross northwestern Mexico this afternoon and evening before
dissipating. The remnants of Polo should continue quickly
northeastward, passing over southern New Mexico and far western
Texas late tonight or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as the center of Polo moves
farther inland, and the surface circulation is expected to
dissipated tonight. However, the remnants of Polo are likely bring
gusty winds to portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas
late tonight and early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across northwestern
Mexico near the center of Polo and will continue spread
northeastward tonight.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today
and tonight in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for
additional information.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated
maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 292035
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 109.7W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 109.7W AT 29/2100Z...INLAND
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 110.6W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 32.6N 105.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 109.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 291742
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
1100 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

...POLO MAKES LANDFALL A LITTLE EAST OF GUAYMAS MEXICO...
...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 110.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM E OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings for the east
coast of Baja California Sur.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case in the next several hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should
monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
just inland over the Mexican state of Sonora near latitude 28.0
North, longitude 110.6 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast
near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with
an increase in forward speed today. On the forecast track, will
move farther inland over the southern portion of the state of Sonora
this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as the center of Polo moves
farther inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km). The Mexican Navy weather station in Guaymas
recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (72 kn/h) and a wind
gust of 56 mph (90 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area for a few more hours. Hurricane and
tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico
near the center of Polo this afternoon.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today
and tonight in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for
additional information.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated
maximum totals of 8 inches. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
is expected across Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 291444
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

Polo is now over the Gulf of California, with convection increasing
near the center. The cyclone weakened during its passage over Baja
California del Sur, but the consensus of the satellite intensity
estimates is that it remains a hurricane with winds near 65 kt.

The initial motion is now 040/15. Polo is expected to accelerate
northeastward in the flow on the east side of a mid-latitude trough
over the southwestern United States. The forecast track shows the
cyclone making landfall near Guaymas in the next few hours and then
crossing northwestern Mexico until dissipation occurs.

Little change in strength is likely before landfall. After landfall
the surface circulation should weaken rapidly over the rough terrain
of northwestern Mexico, with the circulation dissipating between
12-24 h. However, Polo's remnant vorticity will continue moving
northeastward and likely interact and phase with aforementioned
mid-latitude trough digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S.
on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will contribute to heavy
rainfall, flash flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S.
and southern Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction
Center and local National Weather Service offices for more
information.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in southern Sonora as the
center of Polo moves inland, and residents there should remain in a
safe shelter through this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm
conditions will spread across northwestern Mexico near the center
of Polo through this afternoon. A dangerous storm surge is expected
at the coast in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact the southern and
central portions of Sonora today. This rainfall is expected to
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and
flooding potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High
Plains today into early Wednesday.

3. Even after Polo dissipates, its low- to mid-level remnants may
produce strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of
northwest Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas.

4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the
northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or
so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 27.8N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 30.5N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 291443
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

...POLO ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GUAYMAS MEXICO...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN THE LANDFALL AREA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 110.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings for the west
coast of Baja California Sur. The Government of Mexico has changed
the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for the east
coast of Baja California Sur from Loreto to Santa Rosalia, and has
discontinued all other watches and warnings on the east coast of
Baja California Sur.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few
hours

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case in the next several hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should
monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 110.9 West. Polo is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed today. On
the forecast track, the core of Polo will move inland over southern
Sonora near Guaymas during the next few hours and cross portions of
northwestern Mexico this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall.
Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as the center crosses
northwestern Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km). The Mexican Navy automated station in Guaymas recently
reported a wind gust of 52 mph (84 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area during the next few hours. Hurricane and
tropical storm conditions are expected over northwestern Mexico
near the center of Polo this afternoon.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today
and tonight in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for
additional information.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated
maximum totals of 8 inches. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall
is expected across Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of
the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 291442
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 110.9W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 45SE 10SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 110.9W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 108.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 110.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 291148
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
500 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

...POLO NOW CROSSING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN SONORA EARLY THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 111.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF LORETO MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning on the west coast of Baja California del Sur
north of Puerto Abreojos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Puerto
Cortes
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should
monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 111.7 West. Polo is moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue along with a significant acceleration this
morning. On the forecast track, the core of Polo will cross the
Gulf of California for the next several hours, then move inland
over southern Sonora late this morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Polo makes its
second landfall in mainland Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast
later today when Polo moves well inland over mainland Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across Baja California Sur
in the warning area during the next few hours, and these conditions
are possible in the watch area for another few hours. In mainland
Mexico, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area beginning in the next few hours.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late today
and tonight in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for
additional information.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches is expected across
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 290911 CCA
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

Corrected for Key Message number 1.

Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja
California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas.
Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out
(WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo
was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z. There is some
uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the
data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2
hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95
kt range. The center has been over land for about 3 hours now, and
it is estimated that the maximum winds have come down to about 70
kt.

The hurricane is moving northeastward, or 30 degrees at 9 kt. A
significant increase in forward speed is expected this morning as a
mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the southwestern U.S.
This track should take the system inland over the Mexican state of
Sonora late this morning. The track forecast is a little slower
compared to the previous forecast for the first 12 hours, mainly
due to the slower initial motion.

Some slight additional weakening is likely for another couple of
hours while the center of Polo remains over land. When the center
emerges over the Gulf of California, atmospheric and oceanic
conditions could allow for Polo to maintain its intensity. The
latest HAFS models show landfall in Sonora around 60 kt, but it is
possible that Polo could still be a hurricane when it reaches that
state. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the
rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. Although Polo is likely to
dissipate between the hour 12 and 24 points, a 24 hour point is
included for continuity.

Polo's remnant vorticity will likely interact and phase with a
strong cutoff low digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S.
on Tuesday and Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall, flash
flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern
Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and
local National Weather Service offices for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is still bringing hurricane-force winds to Baja California
Sur, and residents there should remain in a safe shelter through
this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread
into mainland Mexico early today. A dangerous storm surge is
expected in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California
Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today. This
rainfall is expected to produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo
will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the
Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains today into early
Wednesday.

3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce
strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest
Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas.

4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the
northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or
so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 26.2N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 28.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0600Z 31.7N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 290857
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

Polo made landfall around 06Z along the west coast of Baja
California Sur, just south of the small town of Las Barrancas.
Several microwave fixes received after the 03Z advisory went out
(WSF-M, SAR, and two ASCAT passes) all indicated that center of Polo
was a bit farther south than was estimated at 03Z. There is some
uncertainty in what the intensity was at landfall, but given all the
data we have received, it is likely that Polo was a category 2
hurricane at the time of landfall with maximum winds in the 90-95
kt range. The center has been over land for about 3 hours now, and
it is estimated that the maximum winds have come down to about 70
kt.

The hurricane is moving northeastward, or 30 degrees at 9 kt. A
significant increase in forward speed is expected this morning as a
mid- to upper-level trough amplifies over the southwestern U.S.
This track should take the system inland over the Mexican state of
Sonora late this morning. The track forecast is a little slower
compared to the previous forecast for the first 12 hours, mainly
due to the slower initial motion.

Some slight additional weakening is likely for another couple of
hours while the center of Polo remains over land. When the center
emerges over the Gulf of California, atmospheric and oceanic
conditions could allow for Polo to maintain its intensity. The
latest HAFS models show landfall in Sonora around 60 kt, but it is
possible that Polo could still be a hurricane when it reaches that
state. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected over the
rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. Although Polo is likely to
dissipate between the hour 12 and 24 points, a 24 hour point is
included for continuity.

Polo's remnant vorticity will likely interact and phase with a
strong cutoff low digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S.
on Tuesday and Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall, flash
flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern
Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and
local National Weather Service offices for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is still bringing hurricane-force winds and residents in
Baja California Sur should remain in a safe shelter through this
morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread into
mainland Mexico late tonight and early Tuesday. A dangerous storm
surge is expected in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California
Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today. This
rainfall is expected to produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo
will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the
Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains today into early
Wednesday.

3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce
strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest
Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas.

4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the
northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or
so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 26.2N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 28.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0600Z 31.7N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 290857
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Tue Sep 29 2026

...POLO LASHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN SONORA EARLY THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 111.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF LORETO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The hurricane warning along the west coast of Baja California Sur
south of Puerto Cortes has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Puerto
Cortes
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have
already been completed.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
next 12 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should
monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 111.9 West. Polo is moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue along with a significant acceleration this
morning. On the forecast track, the core of Polo will continue
moving across Baja California Sur for another few hours tonight,
then move inland over southern Sonora late this morning.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some slight additional weakening is forecast
during the next couple of hours while the center is over Baja
California Sur, but Polo is still expected to be a hurricane when it
makes its second landfall in mainland Mexico. Rapid weakening is
forecast on Tuesday when Polo moves well inland over mainland
Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across Baja California Sur
in the warning area during the next several hours, and these
conditions are possible in the watch area for another few hours. In
mainland Mexico, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning
area and possible in the watch area this morning.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday
and Tuesday night in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches is expected across
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 290854
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 111.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 0SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 111.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.4N 110.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.7N 106.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 111.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 290553
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1100 PM MST MON SEP 28 2026

...POLO MAKES LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR JUST SOUTH OF LAS
BARRANCAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 112.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM N OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MULEGE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA FE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM LORETO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO TO HUATABAMPITO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO.
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN
NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND THE REMAINDER
OF SONORA AND NORTHERN SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO IS MAKING
LANDFALL NOW ON THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR JUST SOUTH OF
LAS BARRANCAS NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. POLO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION
WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF POLO WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT, THEN MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN SONORA
TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE POLO TRAVELS OVER LAND
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT POLO IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A
HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.
RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY WHEN POLO MOVES WELL INLAND
OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES (165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB (28.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
IN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT. IN MAINLAND
MEXICO, HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA AND
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WESTERN TEXAS WHERE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH POLOA S REMNANTS. REFER TO
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SONORA. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 290234
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026

Polo is about to make landfall on Baja California Sur. Heavy rains
and hurricane-force winds have already spread across the peninsula,
and the worst conditions will likely occur in the hurricane warning
area within the next few hours. Polo is not as well organized as it
was earlier, with the eye filling in satellite images. The initial
intensity is held at 100 kt near the high end of the latest
satellite estimates, but this could be a little generous.

The hurricane is moving northeastward at 11 kt, and that motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected as a mid- to
upper-level trough amplifies over the southwestern U.S. This
track should take the system across Baja California and the Gulf
of California tonight and then inland over the Mexican state of
Sonora Tuesday morning. Little change was made to the previous
track forecast, and this one remains near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

Little change in strength is expected before Polo makes landfall on
Baja California Sur. However, the combination of land interaction
and increasing vertical wind shear should cause Polo to rapidly
weaken overnight, but it is still expected to be a hurricane when it
makes its second landfall in Sonora Tuesday morning. Polo should
quickly dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico later on
Tuesday, and even though a 24-hour position is provided, it seems
unlikely that the hurricane will still be around by then.

Polo's remnant vorticity will likely interact and phase with a
strong cutoff low digging into the Four Corners region of the U.S.
on Tuesday and Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall, flash
flooding, and gusty winds in the southwestern U.S. and southern
Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and
local National Weather Service offices for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast about to make landfall as a major hurricane on
the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Residents should
remain in a safe shelter. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions
will spread into mainland Mexico late tonight and early Tuesday. A
dangerous storm surge is expected in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California
Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora tonight and
Tuesday. This rainfall is expected to produce life-threatening
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and flooding
potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains
tonight into Tuesday.

3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce
strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest
Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far western Texas.

4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the
northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or
so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 25.9N 112.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 27.7N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 31.0N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 290233
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026

...POLO ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 112.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case this evening into
Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed in Baja California Sur or rushed to completion shortly in
Sonora.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
next 12 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 112.5 West. Polo is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion with
a gradual acceleration is anticipated through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to make landfall
along the coast of Baja California Sur within the next couple of
hours, then move inland over southern Sonora Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
Polo makes landfall on Baja California Sur. Polo is also expected to
be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall in mainland
Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast on Tuesday when Polo moves well
inland over mainland Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across Baja California Sur
in the warning area during the next several hours, and these
conditions are possible in the watch area tonight. In mainland
Mexico, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area and
possible in the watch area early Tuesday morning.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday
and Tuesday night in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 expected across southern and
central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the
next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 290233
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 112.5W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 45SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 112.5W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.7N 110.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.0N 107.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 112.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 282336
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
500 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026

...POLO NEARING LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 112.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case late this afternoon
into Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed or rushed to completion shortly.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
next 12 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 112.8 West. Polo is moving
toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with
a gradual acceleration is anticipated through Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Polo is expected to make landfall
along the coast of Baja California Sur later this evening, then
move inland over southern Sonora Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
Polo makes landfall on Baja California Sur. Polo is also expected to
be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall in mainland
Mexico. Rapid weakening is forecast on Tuesday when Polo moves well
inland over mainland Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across Baja California Sur
within the warning area during the next few hours, and these
conditions are possible in the watch area later this evening. In
mainland Mexico, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning
area and possible in the watch area early Tuesday morning.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday
and Tuesday night in association with Polos remnants. Refer to
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the
next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 282052
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026

NOAA Hurricane Hunters investigated Polo this afternoon, finding the
hurricane was still well organized with a 23 n mi wide eye, though
the eyewall was open to the southwest and there was a subtle
increase in the vertical tilt comparing the 1-5 km Tail Doppler
Radar (TDR) wind data from the aircraft. The highest 700 mb
flight-level winds were 106 kt in the southeast quadrant, which
using a typical 0.9 reduction factor would suggest an intensity of
95 kt. However, the TDR data has also been useful to diagnose the
intensity of Polo since it samples a larger wind field swath, and
the final southwest to northeast leg through the hurricane indicated
0.5 km winds up to 112 kt in the northeast eyewall. Experimental
reduction data from this TDR analysis in this region reduced these
boundary layer winds down to 100 kt at 10 meters. Thus, the initial
intensity remains 100 kt for this advisory.

Polo continues to move northeastward, but it is starting to
accelerate some with an current motion of 40 degrees at 10 kt. This
general motion should continue over the next day with gradual
acceleration as the hurricane is captured by a strong shortwave
trough swinging into the southwestern United States. This track will
take Polo's core over the Baja California Peninsula this evening
very close to Puerto San Andresito. The hurricane will then briefly
move over the Gulf of California overnight, finally making a second
landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico on Tuesday morning. The NHC
track forecast is essentially an update from this morning, and is in
the middle of the tightly clustered guidance.

Sea-surface temperatures actually increase a bit as Polo approaches
Baja California Sur. Vertical wind shear, while also increasing, is
unlikely to get strong enough over the next 3-6 h to cause much
weakening. Thus, Polo is likely to maintain its current intensity
and be at or near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall
on the west coast of Baja California Sur this evening. Weakening
will likely begin immediately after it moves over the rugged terrain
of the peninsula, though Polo is still expected to be a hurricane
when it makes its second landfall in mainland Mexico on the Gulf of
California coast. Rapid weakening is expected when Polo moves fully
inland over the high rugged terrain of northwestern Mexico, and the
tropical cyclone is expected to degenerate into a trough before its
remnants reach the southwestern United States.

However Polo's remnant vorticity will ultimately interact and phase
with a strong cutoff low digging into the the four corners region of
the U.S. on Tuesday into Wednesday, contributing to heavy rainfall,
flash flooding, and gusty winds the southwestern U.S. and southern
Plains. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and
local National Weather Service offices for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula near major hurricane strength this evening.
Conditions will deteriorate quickly, and residents are urged to seek
safe shelter. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will spread
inland across Baja California tonight, and into mainland Mexico late
tonight and early Tuesday. A dangerous storm surge is expected in
areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California
Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today into
Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo
will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the
Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains late today into
Tuesday.

3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce
strong gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest
Mexico and southern New Mexico and far western Texas.

4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the
northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or
so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 25.0N 113.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 26.2N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND OVER BAJA CA
24H 29/1800Z 28.7N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND OVER MEXICO
36H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 282048
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT POLO IS STILL A MAJOR
HURRICANE NEARING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING NOW BEGINNING OVER
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 113.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case late this afternoon
into Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed or rushed to completion shortly.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case over the next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 12 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 113.0 West. Polo is moving
toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with
gradual acceleration is expected this evening through Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Polo is expected to move inland
along the coast of Baja California Sur later this evening, then move
inland into southern Sonora on Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible this
afternoon, but Polo is forecast to be at or near major hurricane
strength when it makes landfall on the west coast of Baja California
Sur this evening. Polo is also expected to be a hurricane when it
makes landfall in mainland Mexico early Tuesday morning. Rapid
weakening is expected after Polo moves well inland into mainland
Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated by earlier aircraft
dropsonde data is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur shortly, with tropical
storm conditions ongoing in the southern portion of the warning
area. These conditions are expected to spread northward and eastward
across Baja California Sur during the next few hours. Hurricane
conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area and
possible in the watch area in mainland northwestern Mexico early
Tuesday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin tonight.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and
far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday
and Tuesday night in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office for additional information.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 282045
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC MON SEP 28 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 113.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 120SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 113.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.2N 112.1W...INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.7N 109.8W...INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 113.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 281746
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1100 AM MST MON SEP 28 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING POLO...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS
LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 113.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA FE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM LORETO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO TO HUATABAMPITO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO.
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED OR RUSHED TO COMPLETION SHORTLY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND THE REMAINDER
OF SONORA AND NORTHERN SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED BY
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE
113.5 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
(17 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF POLO
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR THIS EVENING, THEN MOVE INLAND INTO SOUTHERN SONORA ON TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
HOWEVER, POLO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN
IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS EVENING, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A
HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER POLO MOVES FARTHER
INLAND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM). RECENTLY, A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH (74 KM/H) WAS OBSERVED IN
PUERTO CORTES, MEXICO.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA IS
964 MB (28.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY OCCURING IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN MAINLAND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SONORA. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 281446
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026

On geostationary satellite, Polo still looks pretty healthy,
with a small central dense overcast with an embedded eye, though
the eye feature has been coming and going. Some of this evolution
is likely due to inner-core structural changes near the center,
where an earlier AMSR-3 microwave pass at 0928 UTC showed evidence
of concentric rings suggesting an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC)
on the 37 GHz channel. The 12 UTC subjective Dvorak TAFB CI number
remains 5.5/102 kt, though the objective intensity estimates have
fallen some. For now, the initial intensity is being maintained at
100 kt, pending another NOAA P-3 aircraft that should provide an
update in the storms structure and intensity this afternoon.

Polo appears to be making the turn to the northeast, with the
estimated motion now at 35 degrees at 9 kt. This general heading in
Polo's track should continue for the next 36 h, though with some
gradual acceleration as the hurricane is captured by a short-wave
trough swinging into the southwestern United States. This track
will take Polo's core over the Baja California Peninsula this
evening, then briefly moving over the Gulf of California overnight
wit ha second landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico on Tuesday
Morning. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the
previous one, following the reliable HFIP corrected consensus
approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI).

The vertical wind shear remains low over Polo at the moment, and has
now shifted out of the southwest, so the vector is in the same
direction as its component of motion. In addition sea-surface
temperatures actually warm as the hurricane approaches the
coastline. Thus, Polo's intensity will be primarily governed by
inner-core structural changes today before landfall. While the
interpolated guidance shows a bit of modest weakening in 12 h, given
the favorable environment, it is probably more prudent to maintain
the hurricane's current intensity before it makes landfall in the
Baja California Peninsula where it will likely be near or at major
hurricane intensity. Land interaction with the peninsula and shear
increasing should lead to significant weakening, but Polo is still
expected to be a hurricane when it reaches mainland Mexico. Even
more rapid weakening is expected when Polo moves inland over the
high rugged terrain of northwestern mainland Mexico and the storm
will likely dissipate over the higher terrain long before it reaches
the southwestern U.S.

Although Polo is expected to dissipate before it reaches the
southern U.S., distant moisture associated with it and the Post-
Tropical Cyclone Odalys will be transported into the southwestern
United States during the next few days, and may indirectly
contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula near major hurricane strength this evening.
Conditions will deteriorate shortly, making preparations difficult.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread
across Baja California through tonight, and into mainland Mexico
late on early Tuesday. A dangerous storm surge is likely in areas of
onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall from Polo will impact Baja California Sur and
southern and central portions of Sonora today into Tuesday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will
support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the southwest
U.S. into the southern High Plains late today into Tuesday.

3. Even after Polo dissipates, its mid-level remnants may produce
gusty winds well inland over the higher terrain of northwest
Mexico and the southwest United States.

4. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 24.2N 113.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 25.4N 112.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 27.4N 111.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 30/0000Z 29.9N 108.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 281444
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026

...POLO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...CONDITIONS TO SOON DETERIORATE AS LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND
FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND
SONORA TODAY AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 113.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case later this afternoon
into Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed or rushed to completion shortly.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case over the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 113.5 West. Polo is now moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion with
gradual acceleration is expected this afternoon through Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Polo is expected to move inland
along the coast of Baja California Sur this evening, then move
inland into southern Sonora on Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today.
However, Polo is forecast to be near major hurricane strength when
it reaches Baja California Sur this evening, and is anticipated to
be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico late early
Tuesday morning. Rapid weakening is expected after Polo moves well
inland into mainland Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late this afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern portion of
the warning area later this morning. These conditions are expected
to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur later
today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico late tonight through early Tuesday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin tonight.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 281443
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC MON SEP 28 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 113.5W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 113.5W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.4N 112.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.4N 111.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.9N 108.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 113.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 281137
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
500 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026

...POLO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA TODAY AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 113.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan
Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case later this afternoon
into Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed or rushed to completion shortly.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 113.7 West. Polo is moving
toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected this afternoon, followed by a slight increase
in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Polo is
expected to move inland along the coast of Baja California Sur late
this afternoon or early this evening, then move inland into southern
Sonora late tonight or early Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to be near major hurricane
strength when it reaches Baja California Sur later today, and is
anticipated to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland
Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late this afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern portion of
the warning area later this morning. These conditions are expected
to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur later
today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
Hurricane Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico late tonight through early Tuesday with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin tonight.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12
inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4
to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across
southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 280854
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2026

Polo has remained fairly steady over the past 6 hours in terms of
its overall convective structure. The ragged eye and inner core
have perhaps only become slightly less impressive. The TAFB current
intensity number is 5.5/102 kt and recent UW-CIMSS objective
estimates are in the 90-100 kt range. The initial intensity is
nudged downward to 100 kt.

The major hurricane is now moving north-northeastward at 9 kt on the
western side of a mid-level ridge that is situated over northern
Mexico. Polo is forecast to turn northeastward by this afternoon
as a trough amplifies over California, taking the core of the
hurricane over the Baja California Peninsula late this afternoon or
evening. Polo is then expected to briefly pass over the Gulf of
California before making a second landfall in northwestern mainland
Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday morning. The latest NHC
forecast is on top of the previous forecast, but slightly slower,
and lies close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA)
guidance.

The SHIPS and UW-CIMSS analyses are currently diagnosing less than
10 kt of vertical wind shear over Polo. The shear is expected to
increase to about 15 to 18 kt by the time Polo makes landfall in
Baja California Sur, but thermodynamic conditions aren't expected to
change much. Most of the guidance indicates slight weakening over
the next 12 to 18 hours. The most likely scenario for the intensity
at landfall in Baja California is around 95 kt, but there is also a
chance that Polo could maintain its current intensity until it makes
landfall. Land interaction with the peninsula and an increase in
wind shear should cause some weakening, but Polo is still expected
to be a hurricane when it reaches mainland Mexico. After the second
landfall, rapid weakening is forecast over the rugged terrain of
Mexico. The official intensity forecast is only slightly lower
than the previous one up until the first landfall, and then is
similar to the previous forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the majority of the guidance.

Although Polo is expected to dissipate before it reaches the
southern U.S., distant moisture associated with it and the
Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will be transported into the
southwestern United States during the next few days, and may
indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in
the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for
more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula near major hurricane strength late today,
within the Hurricane Warning area. Conditions are expected to begin
to deteriorate there this morning, making further preparations
difficult. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
spread across Baja California through today through tonight, and
into mainland Mexico late tonight into early Tuesday. A storm
surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California
Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today into
Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo
will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the
Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains late today into
Tuesday.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 23.6N 113.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 26.7N 111.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...EAST COAST OF BAJA
36H 29/1800Z 29.5N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 280852
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
200 AM MST MON SEP 28 2026

...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA TODAY AND TUESDAY...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS MORNING IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 113.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA
SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA FE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM LORETO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO TO HUATABAMPITO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO.
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 30
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND THE REMAINDER
OF SONORA AND NORTHERN SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. POLO IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF POLO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN MOVE INLAND IN SOUTHERN
SONORA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH (185 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. POLO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATE TODAY, AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB (28.29 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA AND POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN MAINLAND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SONORA. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 280850
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC MON SEP 28 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 113.8W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 113.8W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 114.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.7N 111.6W...EAST COAST OF BAJA
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.5N 109.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 113.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 280544
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1100 PM MST SUN SEP 27 2026

...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MONDAY MORNING IN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 114.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA
KINO TO GUAYMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA FE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM BAHIA KINO TO HUATABAMPITO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO.
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 18 TO 36
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND THE REMAINDER
OF SONORA AND NORTHERN SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.0 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, POLO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY, MOVE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN APPROACH NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND
MEXICO LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. POLO IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY,
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL IN
MAINLAND MEXICO LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES (165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB (28.17 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
ON MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA AND POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN MAINLAND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS
OF 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SONORA. THIS RAINFALL
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 280235
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026

Polo is approaching the Baja California Peninsula as a powerful
major hurricane. Satellite images suggest that the cyclone is
maintaining its intensity with a ragged eye feature persisting,
surrounded by intense deep convection. The cloud pattern is a little
asymmetric, with the coldest cloud tops currently located over the
western half of the circulation. The latest satellite intensity
estimates are largely unchanged, and generally range from 100 to 115
kt. Based on that data and steady state appearance, the initial wind
speed is held at 110 kt.

The major hurricane is moving northward at about 10 kt on the
western side of a mid-level ridge that is situated over northern
Mexico. Polo is forecast to turn northeastward on Monday as a trough
amplifies over California, taking the core of the hurricane over the
Baja California Peninsula Monday afternoon or evening. Polo is then
expected to briefly pass over the Gulf of California before making a
second landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico Monday night or
early Tuesday morning. Little change was made to the previous
forecast, and this one lies near the best-performing models of the
year so far, HCCA and GDMI.

No significant change in strength is expected before Polo reaches
Baja California, and based on the model guidance, it seems likely
to be at or near major hurricane intensity when it makes
landfall there. Land interaction with the peninsula and an increase
in wind shear should cause some weakening, but Polo is still
expected to be a hurricane when it reaches mainland Mexico. After
the second landfall, rapid weakening is forecast over the rugged
terrain of Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one, and in good agreement with the majority of the
guidance.

Although Polo is expected to dissipate before it reaches the
southern U.S., distant moisture associated with it and the
Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will be transported into the
southwestern United States during the next few days, and may
indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in
the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for
more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of the Baja
California Peninsula as a hurricane late Monday, within the
Hurricane Warning area. Conditions are expected to begin to
deteriorate there Monday morning, making further preparations
difficult. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to
spread across Baja California through Monday and into mainland
Mexico on early Tuesday. A storm surge is likely, especially in
areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California
Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora Monday into
Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo
will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the
Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains late Monday into
Tuesday.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 22.8N 114.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 24.1N 113.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 25.9N 112.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 28.3N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 31.3N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 280234
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026

...POLO HEADED TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 114.0W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
* Mainland Mexico from Guaymas to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 114.0 West. Polo is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue
for the next several hours followed by a turn toward the northeast
on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the
west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the
peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern mainland
Mexico by early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane strength when it reaches Baja California Sur on Monday,
and it is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in
mainland Mexico early Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late Monday
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern
portion of the warning area Monday morning. These conditions are
expected to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur
on Monday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico late Monday night through early Tuesday with
tropical storm conditions expected to begin Monday night.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals
of 8 expected across portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 280234
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC MON SEP 28 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 114.0W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 114.0W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 114.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.1N 113.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.9N 112.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.3N 110.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.3N 107.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 114.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 272354
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
500 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026

...POLO HEADED TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 114.1W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
* Mainland Mexico from Guaymas to Huatabampito

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
* Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas to Bahia Kino
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 114.1 West. Polo is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue
through tonight followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday.
On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast
of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday
night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to be at or near major
hurricane strength when it reaches Baja California Sur on Monday,
and it is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in
mainland Mexico early Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late Monday
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern
portion of the warning area by early Monday. These conditions are
expected to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur
on Monday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico early Tuesday with tropical storm conditions
expected to begin Monday night.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals
of 8 expected across portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 272200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 17E (POLO) WARNING NR 029 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 17E (POLO) WARNING NR 029 CORRECTED
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 21.4N 114.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 114.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.2N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.0N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 27.0N 111.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 29.9N 108.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 114.0W.
27SEP26. HURRICANE 17E (POLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 698 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 271800Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z.
REFER TO HURRICANE 15E (NOLO) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE 16E (ODALYS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18E (RACHEL) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2.JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTION TO STORM WARNING NUMBER.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 272041
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 114.1W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 114.1W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 114.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.2N 114.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.0N 111.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.9N 108.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 114.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 271746
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1100 AM MST SUN SEP 27 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING POLO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS POWERFUL POLO
APPROACHES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 114.0W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA FE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND THE REMAINDER
OF SONORA AND NORTHERN SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED BY
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE
114.0 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
(19 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
POLO IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
ON MONDAY, MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN APPROACH
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, BUT POLO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG HURRICANE
WHEN IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES (165 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY DROPSONDE DATA IS 950 MB
(28.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
ON MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA IN MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS
OF 8 EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SONORA. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 271457
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026

Polo continues to have a pretty healthy structure on geostationary
satellite imagery this morning, with very cold cloud tops associated
with robust eyewall convection. The most recent F18 SSMIS microwave
pass showed a mostly closed eyewall, albeit with some erosion on the
east side, likely due to some residual easterly vertical wind shear.
Both the subjective and objective intensity estimates over the past
6 h have increased somewhat, with the latest SATCON, DPRINT, and
DMINT estimates between 106-113 kt. Thus, the initial intensity is
nudged up slightly to 110 kt for this advisory. A NOAA P-3
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route and will provide
updated in-situ data on Polo this afternoon.

Polo continues to make its turn more northward, with the latest
estimated motion at 345 degrees at 10 kt. The hurricane should soon
turn northward and the northeastward over the next 12-24 h as it is
steered between the deep-layer ridging that is centered over Mexico
and a mid-latitude shortwave trough that will soon move into
California. It is this short-wave that is expected to capture Polo
as it reaches the coast of Baja California Sur, leading to further
acceleration as the hurricane turns northeastward. While the track
guidance this cycle is very tightly clustered near the previous
forecast track, but are somewhat faster along this track. Thus the
latest NHC track forecast has been moved slightly faster and
roughly splits the difference between the reliable HFIP Corrected
Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI)
aids. Its is worth noting there remains some along-track spread in
the ensemble guidance, so the exact timing of landfall is more
uncertain than usual in the 24-48 h time frame.

The intensity forecast also has some challenges. Polo has maintained
a fairly healthy appearance while its been dealing with light to
moderate easterly vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance now
shows the shear decreasing over the next 12-24 h, and given the
slightly stronger initial intensity, the latest NHC intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one. This forecast is on the
high end of the interpolated intensity guidance, and now shows Polo
reaching the coast of the Baja California Peninsula as a 95 kt
hurricane. It is worth mentioning the latest HAFS-B raw model output
shows Polo could retain major hurricane intensity at landfall. Some
weakening should occur as it moves over the rugged terrain of Baja
California, but it is increasingly likely that Polo's second
landfall in mainland Mexico will also be as a (weaker) hurricane.
Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter as it moves inland over
Mexico with Polo becoming post-tropical or dissipating by 72 h.

Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before
it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with
it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United
States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly
contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Warning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as tonight or early
Monday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions
will likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm
surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur tonight into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 21.3N 113.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 22.7N 113.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 24.5N 113.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 26.3N 112.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 28.6N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 31.5N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 271456
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
800 AM MST SUN SEP 27 2026

...POLO A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS POWERFUL POLO APPROACHES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 113.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA FE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND THE REMAINDER
OF SONORA AND NORTHERN SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, POLO IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY, MOVE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN APPROACH NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, BUT POLO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
STRONG HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB (28.03 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY MONDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN MAINLAND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS
OF 8 EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SONORA. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 271456
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 113.9W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 113.9W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.7N 113.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.5N 113.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.3N 112.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.6N 110.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 31.5N 107.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 113.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 271143
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
500 AM MST SUN SEP 27 2026

...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS POWERFUL POLO APPROACHES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 113.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA FE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND THE REMAINDER
OF SONORA AND NORTHERN SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.7 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, POLO IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY, MOVE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN APPROACH NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT POLO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG HURRICANE WHEN IT
APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES (205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB (28.12 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY MONDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN MAINLAND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 270857
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026

The satellite presentation of Polo has remained fairly steady since
the time the NOAA aircraft finished its mission about 7 hours ago.
There are still hints of an eye in geostationary and microwave
satellite images. The latest TAFB Dvorak currently intensity was
6.5/127 kt with 5.5/102 kt for the final-T number. Objective
intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been running in the 105-110
kt range. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt for this
advisory.

Polo has turned toward the north-northwest, with the current motion
estimated at 330/9 kt. A turn toward the north is expected later
today, and then northeastward on Monday as the cyclone continues to
move around the ridge and becomes increasingly affected by a mid- to
upper-level trough moving in from the northwest. The largest source
of uncertainty in the forecast continues to be the forward speed of
Polo as it makes its expected northeastward turn between the
aforementioned synoptic features. The model spread remains higher
than unusual between 48 and 72 h, more so for the along-track
forward speed of the storm after landfall. The NHC forecast follows
the path of the GDMI and HCCA, but is a bit slower than those
models. This forecast is essentially on top of the previous NHC
forecast.

Polo will continue to travel through an environment of fairly weak
vertical wind shear and sea-surface temperatures near 29C for the
next 24 h, but will be moving into a somewhat drier airmass. By
hour 36, which is about 6 hours before landfall, southwesterly
vertical wind shear will increase. Due to the favorable conditions
until almost before the Baja California landfall, the NHC forecast
is near the higher end of the guidance suite through hour 36,
showing only gradual weakening. Thereafter, increasing wind shear
and land interaction will cause rapid weakening. Although waters
are warm in the Gulf of California, Polo is not expected to
restrengthen there due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear.
The intensity forecast for the 2nd landfall (in mainland Mexico)
is tricky. There is some possibility that Polo could still be at
hurricane strength for the 2nd landfall, as suggested by the latest
HAFS-A forecast. Polo should dissipate inland over northern Mexico
by hour 72.

Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before
it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with
it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United
States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly
contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Warning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as tonight or early
Monday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions
will likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm
surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur tonight into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 20.3N 113.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 21.6N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 23.4N 114.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 25.1N 113.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 26.8N 111.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 28.9N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 31.3N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 270855
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
200 AM MST SUN SEP 27 2026

...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 113.6W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BATISTA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN
MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA FE
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, FROM LORETO TO SANTA ROSALIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO
PUNTA EUGENIA.
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, SOUTH OF LORETO TO SAN
EVARISTO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAINLAND MEXICO SOUTH OF HUATABAMPITO TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS,
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND THE REMAINDER
OF SONORA AND NORTHERN SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, POLO IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY, MOVE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN APPROACH NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT POLO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT
APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB (28.12 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND THEN
EASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY MONDAY EVENING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN MAINLAND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO, AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 500 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 270855
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 113.6W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 113.6W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.4N 114.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.1N 113.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.8N 111.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.9N 109.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 31.3N 106.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 113.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 270547
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
1100 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026

...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 113.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* The east coast of Baja California Sur, from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in portions of northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor
the progress of Polo. Additional watches will likely be required
for the Sonora Coast on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 113.4 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A northward turn is expected on
Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the
forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja
California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday night and
then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the
next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane when it
approaches Baja California Sur on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of
the warning area by Sunday night into early Monday. These conditions
are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday and then
eastward across Baja California Sur by Monday evening.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward
along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the
remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 270245
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Polo during the
last few hours and found that although it has weakened, the system
remains a major hurricane. The highest flight-level winds measured
by the plane on its last pass through Polo were 114 kt, while the
minimum pressure measured by a dropsonde was 949 mb. Based on these
data, the intensity of Polo is set at 105 kt. The NOAA aircraft also
confirmed that Polo's inner core has expanded, and reported that
the eyewall of the hurricane is open on the north side of the
circulation.

Polo is still heading northwestward, moving around the western edge
of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Polo will turn
northward tomorrow, and then northeastward on Monday as it
continues to move around the ridge and becomes increasingly
affected by a mid- to upper-level trough moving in from the
northwest. The largest source of uncertainty in the forecast
continues to be the forward speed of Polo as it makes its expected
northeastward turn between the aforementioned synoptic features. The
model spread remains higher than unusual between 48 and 72 h, and
confidence in this portion of the forecast is low. The NHC
forecast is still generally close to GDM and HCCA, which are on the
faster end of the guidance, and only minor adjustments were made to
the official forecast with this advisory.

Continued steady weakening is expected during the next day or two
given Polo's degraded structure and the expectation that it will
continue to encounter moderate vertical wind shear and move into a
drier surrounding environment. However, Polo is still expected to be
a hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday.
Rapid weakening is likely once the hurricane makes landfall, and
Polo will likely dissipate over mainland Mexico by late Tuesday.

Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before
it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with
it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United
States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly
contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Warning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday night or early
Monday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions
will likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm
surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur Sunday night into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 19.3N 113.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 20.7N 113.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 22.4N 114.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 24.2N 113.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 25.8N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 27.6N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 29.7N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 270244
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND POLO IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 113.1W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
west coast of Baja California Sur from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
east coast of Baja California Sur from Bahia San Juan Bautista to
San Evaristo.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta Eugenia to Punta Abreojos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to
Santa Fe.

A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The west coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Eugenia to
Punta Abreojos.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The east coast of Baja California Sur, from Bahia San Juan
Bautista to San Evaristo.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

Interests in portions of northwestern mainland Mexico should
monitor the progress of Polo. Additional watches will likely be
required for the Sonora Coast tomorrow.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 113.1 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A northward turn is expected on
Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the
forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja
California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday night and
then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds as measured by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, but Polo
is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches Baja California
Sur on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of
the warning area by Sunday night into early Monday. These
conditions are expected to spread northward during the day on
Monday and then eastward across Baja California Sur by Monday
evening.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will also
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 270242
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 113.1W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 113.1W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.7N 113.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.4N 114.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.2N 113.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.6N 110.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.7N 108.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 113.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 262357
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
500 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO INVESTIGATE POLO...
...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 112.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Watches will likely be required for the east coast of the Baja
California Peninsula this evening. Interests in portions of
northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Polo.
Watches may be required for that area tonight or early Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 112.8 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward motion is
expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on
Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the
west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the
peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern
mainland Mexico by early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, however Polo is expected to be a strong hurricane
when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the
southern portion of the watch area by Sunday night into early
Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the
day on Monday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will also
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 262034
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026

SAR data valid this morning that arrived after the issuance of the
last advisory indicated that Polo's inner-core has expanded,
possibly due to an eyewall replacement cycle. A combination of a
slight increase in easterly wind shear over the past 12 hours
(10-15 kt according to both SHIPS diagnostics and UW-CIMSS
analysis) and the likely eyewall replacement cycle are likely
causing Polo to weaken. Intensity estimates vary greatly, from a 105
kt estimate with that SAR pass to over 140 kt from the ADT. Taking
the available data as a whole, the intensity is set at 125 kt for
this advisory, which is also fairly close to recent estimates from
of the newer techniques from UW-CIMSS: AiDT, DPRINT and DMINT. A
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Polo
later today, which should provide more information about the
structure and intensity of the hurricane.

The hurricane has turned northwestward as it moves around the
western end of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.
Polo will gradually turn northward, and then northeastward over
the next two days as it continues to move around the ridge and is
steered increasingly by a mid- to upper-level trough approaching
from the northwest. There is an unusually large spread in the track
models, primarily associated with Polo's forward speed. The AI
guidance, including GDM, show a notably faster forward motion than
many of the dynamical models, with some of the hurricane regional
models even forecasting the hurricane to stall offshore of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula. No changes of note were made
to the track forecast with this advisory and the NHC forecast still
leans toward the AI models and HCCA, but confidence in that forecast
is not particularly high due to the high model spread.

The models have better agreement on the intensity forecast and
nearly unanimously depict Polo steadily weakening over the next 48
hours. Some short-term intensity fluctuations will be possible
during that period, but a combination of moderate shear and a drier
environment along the forecast track should prevent it from
significantly restrengthening. It is worth noting that Polo is still
expected to be a strong hurricane when it approaches Baja California
Sur. More rapid weakening is likely beyond 60 hours, as the shear is
expected to increase substantially and Polo is forecast to begin
interacting with land.

Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before
it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with
it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United
States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly
contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region.
See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more
information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Watch is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday night or early
Monday, making further preparations difficult. A storm surge will
be possible, especially in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur Sunday night into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 18.7N 112.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 19.8N 113.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 21.4N 114.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 23.2N 114.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 24.8N 113.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 26.4N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 28.0N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 31.2N 105.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 262033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026

...POLO TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 112.5W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Watches will likely be required for the east coast of the Baja
California Peninsula later today. Interests in portions of
northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Polo.
Watches may be required for that area tonight or early Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 112.5 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward motion is
expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on
Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the
west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the
peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern
mainland Mexico by early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days, however Polo is expected to be a strong hurricane
when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the
southern portion of the watch area by Sunday night into early
Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the
day on Monday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will also
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 262033
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.5W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.5W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 113.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.4N 114.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.2N 114.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.8N 113.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.4N 111.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.0N 110.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.2N 105.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 112.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 261804 CCA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1100 AM MST SAT SEP 26 2026

CORRECTED CURRENT LONGITUDE OF POLO.

...POLO STILL A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AS
A STRONG HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 112.2W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EUGENIA TO SANTA FE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.
WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION
ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, POLO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, HOWEVER POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE A
STRONG HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES (205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 936 MB (27.64 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SWELLS WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 261738
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
1100 AM MST Sat Sep 26 2026

...POLO STILL A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AS
A STRONG HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 111.2W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Watches will likely be required for the east coast of the Baja
California Peninsula later today. Interests in portions of
northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Polo.
Watches may be required for that area tonight or early Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 111.2 West. Polo is moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected this afternoon, followed by a northward motion
on Sunday. By Monday, Polo is expected to turn northeastward and
approach Baja California Sur.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast
during the next couple of days, however Polo is expected to be a
strong hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the
southern portion of the watch area by Sunday night into early
Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the
day on Monday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will also
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 261451
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 AM MST Sat Sep 26 2026

Infrared satellite imagery shows that the eye of Polo has become
cloud filled since the previous advisory. This appears to be a
result of an increase in shear over the system. The subjective
Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was unchanged from earlier,
however objective estimates have decreased and range from about
125-142 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory has
been reduced to 135 kt, which could be slightly generous.

Some fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, however
with the gradually increasing shear, slow weakening seems to be the
more likely scenario during the next 24 to 48 hours. After that
time, a more significant increase in southwesterly shear is expected
which is likely to cause an additional decrease in wind speed as
Polo approaches the Baja Peninsula. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is a blend of the typically reliable HFIP corrected
consensus and Google Deep Mind aids. Regardless of the exact
intensity forecast, Polo is expected to be a strong hurricane when
it reaches Baja California Sur.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at
9 kt. There is once again no significant change to the track
forecast reasoning. Polo is expected to turn northwestward later
today, and then northward on Sunday as it moves around the western
periphery of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. By Monday, a mid-level
trough approaching the west coast of the United States should cause
Polo to turn northeastward. This motion is expected to take the
cyclone over the Baja Peninsula and into northwestern Mexico late
Monday through Tuesday. While the track guidance is in generally
good agreement on the overall scenario, there are some large
difference in the forward speed of Polo after the northeastward
turn, which results in a large spread as to when the storm reaches
the Baja Peninsula. The NHC forecast is along the faster side of the
guidance with the typically better performing HFIP corrected
consensus aid and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean.

Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported
into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next
week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Watch is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday night or early
Monday, making further preparations difficult. A storm surge will
be possible, especially in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.9N 111.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.9N 112.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 20.5N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 22.2N 114.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 23.9N 113.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 25.6N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 27.4N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 30.8N 106.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 261450
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
800 AM MST SAT SEP 26 2026

...POLO REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AS
A STRONG HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 111.7W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EUGENIA TO SANTA FE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.
WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THAT AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION ON
SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, POLO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, HOWEVER POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG HURRICANE
WHEN IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM). A WEATHER STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH (65 KM/H) AND A GUST OF 58 MPH (93 KM/H).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 928 MB (27.41 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SWELLS WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 261449
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.9N 112.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 113.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.2N 114.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.9N 113.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.6N 112.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.4N 110.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.8N 106.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 111.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 261153
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
500 AM MST SAT SEP 26 2026

...POLO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AS
A POWERFUL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 111.5W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EUGENIA TO SANTA FE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND TOWARD THE NORTH IS
FORECAST ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, POLO IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH (260 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT, BUT POLO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON
MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM). A WEATHER STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH (68 KM/H) AND A GUST OF 61 MPH (98 KM/H).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 922 MB (27.23 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 260853
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Sat Sep 26 2026

The NOAA aircraft that flew in Polo from 25/22Z to 26/01Z found
maximum flight-level winds of 154 kt, corresponding to about 140 kt
surface winds using standard reduction factors. Since that time,
the structure of Polo has continued to look very impressive on
satellite imagery. The eye has become a bit more cloud-filled
with cooling infrared eye temperatures only over the last hour or
two. The latest intensity estimate from TAFB is 7.5/155 kt and
latest objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 133-153 kt.
The ADT estimate of 167 kt looks a bit unrealistically too high,
given some of the other observed data. Based on the earlier recon
data and the recent cooling observed in the eye, the intensity is
nudged downward slightly to 145 kt.

Polo is expected to remain in a favorable environment for another
48 hours although sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content
will begin decreasing after hour 24. As Polo approaches Baja
California Sur, increasing southwesterly wind shear is expected to
cause a faster rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is
near the high end of the model guidance suite through 48 hours.
Thereafter, the NHC forecast lies between the middle and high end
of the guidance. Polo is expected to be a powerful hurricane when
it reaches Baja California Sur, and it likely to still be a
hurricane when it reaches mainland northwestern Mexico.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at
8 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning with this
advisory. The hurricane is expected to turn gradually northwestward
tomorrow, then northward by the end of the weekend while it moves
around the western side of a ridge centered over northern Mexico.
Early next week an upper-level trough approaching from the northwest
will cause the hurricane to turn northeastward toward Baja
California Sur and west-central Mexico. The NHC track forecast is
very similar to the previous advisory, and is slightly slower than
the latest HCCA and GDMI, but much faster than the latest TVCN
consensus. The track guidance is good agreement in that there is
very little cross-track spread. However, there are still some
timing differences (quite a bit of along-track spread). With this
in mind, residents in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico
should consider finishing their preparations by Sunday.

Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported
into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next
week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Watch is in effect for that region. Tropical Storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as late Sunday, making
further preparations difficult. A storm surge will be possible,
especially in areas of onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next
several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 17.6N 111.0W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 18.3N 112.1W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 19.7N 113.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 21.5N 113.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 23.4N 113.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 25.1N 113.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 26.9N 111.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 30.3N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 260849
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 111.0W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 917 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 111.0W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 110.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.3N 112.1W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.7N 113.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.5N 113.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.4N 113.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.1N 113.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 26.9N 111.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 30.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 111.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 260553
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
1100 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026

...POLO REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AS
A POWERFUL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 110.5W
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 110.5 West. Polo is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the
northwest on Saturday and north on Sunday. By Monday, Polo is
forecast to turn northeastward and approach Baja California Sur.

Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near
175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is an extremely
dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Saturday.
Slow weakening is expected after that, but Polo is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur on
Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb (26.90 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the
southern portion of the watch area by Sunday night into early
Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the
day on Monday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will also
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 260256
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026

Another NOAA research aircraft investigated Polo extensively this
afternoon. The aircraft found that the minimum pressure of Polo has
decreased slightly since the last advisory, to 911 mb. The highest
flight-level winds measured by the aircraft were 154 kt, which
corresponds to a 10-m wind near 140 kt. Higher instantaneous winds
representing gusts were measured by several dropsondes, while
another experimental instrument measured winds at near 80 m/s (155
kt) at a height of 25 m. Since the plane flew a non-standard pattern
on its research mission and the central pressure has actually
slightly decreased, the intensity has been only very slightly
lowered to 150 kt for this advisory.

Fluctuations in intensity due to an eyewall replacement cycle are
possible tonight and tomorrow, but the exact timing of such events
can not be reliably forecast. Most guidance indicates that Polo will
begin to gradually weaken over the next couple of days as it moves
into a region of lower ocean heat content and encounters some
moderate vertical wind shear. Drier environmental mid-level air
could also contribute to weakening by the end of the weekend.
However, it must be stressed that Polo will likely remain a
dangerous major hurricane as it begins to approach the Baja
California peninsula on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast remains
on the upper end of the intensity guidance and no changes of note
were made.

Polo has continued westward for the past several hours. There is no
change to the track forecast reasoning with this advisory. The
hurricane is still expected to turn gradually northwestward
tomorrow, then northward by the end of the weekend while it moves
around the western side of a ridge centered over northern Mexico.
Early next week an upper-level trough approaching from the
northwest will cause the hurricane to turn northeastward toward
Baja California Sur and west-central Mexico. Some of NHC's most
reliable track guidance, including the GDM and HCCA continue to be
outliers in showing a faster track, bringing Polo to the coast of
Baja California Sur sooner than most other guidance. Out of respect
for this guidance, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly faster and farther north again, but is generally very
similar to the previous advisory.

Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported
into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next
week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane
Watch is now in effect for that region. Tropical Storm conditions
could reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday, making further
preparations difficult. A storm surge will be possible, especially
in areas onshore winds.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of
the northwest coast of Mexico for the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 17.4N 110.1W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 17.8N 111.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.0N 112.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.6N 113.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 22.6N 113.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 24.6N 113.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 26.3N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 29.8N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0000Z 31.6N 105.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 260255
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
800 PM MST FRI SEP 25 2026

...POLO REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 110.1W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 298 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA
EUGENIA SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EUGENIA TO SANTA FE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND NORTH ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY,
POLO IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR.

DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH (280 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO
IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT, BUT POLO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
(220 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE NOAA
AIRCRAFT IS 911 MB (26.90 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
MONDAY EVENING, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURGE: A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST, THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL FLOODING.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM MST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 260255
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC SAT SEP 26 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 298 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 911 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 109.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.8N 111.4W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 112.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.6N 113.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.3N 112.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 29.8N 109.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.6N 105.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 110.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 252055
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026

A NOAA research aircraft has found that Polo remains a very
powerful category 5 hurricane. The highest flight level winds
measured by the aircraft were 165 kt in the northeast quadrant, and
since that measurement the central pressure has decreased a couple
millibars, to 913. An UAS launched from the plane measured a peak
wind just above 200 kt at an altitude just below 500 m, which
corresponds to a 10 m wind of 150-155 kt based on an experimental
wind reduction model. Taken all together, this data supports an
initial intensity of 155 kt.

The NOAA aircraft reported that there may be signs of an eyewall
replacement cycle beginning. Although this does not appear to be
having an impact on the hurricane yet, it does highlight that
fluctuations in the intensity of Polo are likely over the next 24 h
while it remains over warm waters. After that, some weakening is
expected as Polo begins to move into a region with lower ocean heat
content and the vertical wind shear increases slightly. However, it
is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane through the
weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is still near the upper-end of
the intensity guidance and is very similar to the previous advisory.

Only small adjustments were made to the official track forecast,
with the biggest change being that the anticipated forward motion
for Polo is slightly faster in this advisory. Polo is still
expected to turn gradually northwestward, then northward this
weekend as it moves around the western side of a ridge centered
over northern Mexico. Then early next week an upper-level trough
approaching from the northwest will likely cause the hurricane to
turn northeastward toward Baja California Sur and west-central
Mexico. The AI models, notably GDM and the experimental
WeatherNext3, generally show a slightly faster motion than most of
the dynamical guidance, and the model spread has increased at 72 h
and beyond. The forecast confidence is correspondingly lower with
this advisory. The NHC forecast is a blend of the consensus
and continuity with the previous advisory. Based on the forecast
track, watches could be required for portions of Baja California Sur
as soon as tonight.

Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported
into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next
week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place. Watches could be required as early as tonight for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 17.2N 109.2W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 17.4N 110.6W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 18.2N 112.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 19.6N 113.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 23.4N 113.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 25.1N 112.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 28.5N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z 32.0N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 252052
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026

...NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURES CATEGORY 5 WINDS IN POLO...
...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 109.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...913 MB...26.96 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress
of this system. Watches could be required for a portion of the area
tonight or early Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 109.2 West. Polo is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is expected to
continue this evening, followed by a gradual turn toward the
northwest on Saturday and north on Sunday. By Monday, Polo is
forecast to turn northeastward and approach Baja California Sur.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 180 mph (285 km/h) with
higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today,
but slow weakening is expected by the weekend. Polo is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur
early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the latest data
from the NOAA aircraft is 913 mb (26.96 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated
with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 252051
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 109.2W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 913 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 109.2W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.4N 110.6W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.2N 112.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.6N 113.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.4N 113.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 28.5N 109.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 32.0N 105.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 109.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 251450
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026

After regaining Category 5 status overnight, the remarkable
satellite presentation of Polo indicates the hurricane has continued
to intensify. The eye has contracted and warmed over the past
several hours, with temperatures above 20 deg C measured inside the
eye. A thick, solid ring of deep convection surrounds the center,
with cloud tops as cold as -80 to -85 deg C. There were no
indications of a concentric eyewall structure in 0905 UTC AMSR3
passive microwave imagery. The latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimates and a
T7.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB support an initial intensity of
155 kt. A NOAA research aircraft mission is scheduled to investigate
Polo later today.

Polo continues moving westward (270/10 kt) along the south side of a
mid-level ridge that extends across northern Mexico. This weekend, a
deep-layer trough approaching from the west is expected to erode the
steering ridge. This will cause Polo to turn northwestward and
northward as it moves around the western side of the ridge. By
Monday, the increasing influence of the upper trough should turn
Polo northeastward toward Baja California Sur and west-central
Mexico. The global models and AI-based guidance are generally
in good agreement on this track evolution. The updated NHC track
forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, and
is also a bit slower to come into better agreement with the latest
multi-model consensus. Overall, the NHC forecast remains on the
faster and right side of the envelope, closer to HCCA and GDMI.
Based on this prediction, watches could be required for portions of
the Baja California Peninsula as early as Saturday.

Based on the aforementioned AMSR3 data, an eyewall replacement cycle
(ERC) does not appear imminent. Thus, further slight strengthening
cannot be ruled out while Polo remains over very warm waters in a
weaker shear environment. The vertical wind shear is expected to
increase over the weekend, and because of this as well as the
possibility of a future ERC, the NHC intensity forecast shows a
weakening trend beginning on Saturday and continuing into next week.
Regardless, Polo is predicted to approach Baja California Sur as a
strong hurricane early next week, and interests there should closely
monitor the latest forecast updates. The NHC forecast remains on the
higher side of the intensity guidance, generally following HCCA.
Once land interaction occurs with the Baja California Peninsula and
mainland Mexico, more rapid weakening is anticipated.

Distant moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will be transported
into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next
week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash
flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather
Prediction Center for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place. Watches could be required as early as Saturday for
portions of the area.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja
California Sur late Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 108.5W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 17.2N 109.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 17.8N 111.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 18.9N 112.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 23.8N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 26.9N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 30.4N 106.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 251449
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026

...POLO IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 108.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...900 MB...26.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress
of this system. Watches could be required for a portion of the area
as early as Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 108.5 West. Polo is moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue through today. A gradual turn to the northwest and north
is forecast on Saturday and Sunday, followed by a northeastward
motion on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to
approach Baja California Sur early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today,
but some weakening is expected over the weekend. Polo is forecast to
approach Baja California Sur as a strong hurricane early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 900 mb (26.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated
with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja
California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 251448
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 108.5W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 900 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 108.5W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 108.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.2N 109.8W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.8N 111.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.9N 112.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.8N 113.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 26.9N 110.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.4N 106.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 108.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ62 KNHC 251250
TCUEP2

Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
550 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE POLO IS STRENGTHENING...

Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that Polo has
significantly strengthened with maximum sustained winds now
estimated to be 180 mph (290 km/h). This intensity change will be
reflected in the next routine forecast advisory package that will be
issued by 800 AM MST (1500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 550 AM MST...1250 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 108.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...290 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...908 MB...26.81 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 250856
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
200 AM MST Fri Sep 25 2026

Since the previous advisory, Polo's eyewall and core cloud-top
temperatures have cooled with a very wide and complete ring of
cloud-top temperatures below -70C surrounding the eye, with a
growing area of cloud-top temperatures colder than -75C surrounding
most of the eye. In addition, GOES-18 infrared eye temperatures
have warmed significantly since the previous advisory, recently
measured near 19C. The latest TAFB Dvorak number is 7.0/140 kt,
while DMINT and SATCON have been hovering around 135-136 kt. Based
on the improved structure, Polo is assigned an initial intensity of
140 kt for this advisory, making it a category 5 hurricane again.

The initial motion is westward, or 275 degrees at 10 kt, so this
motion continues to take the hurricane farther away from mainland
western Mexico. There is little change to the track forecast
philosophy from the previous advisory. Polo is currently being
steered by the flow on the south side of a well-defined
mid-tropospheric ridge that is building westward over northern
Mexico. This steering regime should continue through today. After
that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the northeastern
Pacific should prevent the ridge from building farther west, with
Polo is expected to recurve northward and northeastward around the
western periphery of the ridge. The track guidance is generally in
agreement on this scenario, although there are still notable
differences in forward speed among the models in the 3-5 day time
frame. The official forecast is similar to the previous one through
72 hours, but is faster toward the northeast at day 4-5 compared to
the previous forecast. The NHC forecast is slightly to the left of
the HCCA and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean through 96 hours, but is
to the right of the simple consensus TVCN. Confidence is high that
Polo will make landfall in Baja California Sur and then mainland
Mexico, after moving through the Gulf of California.

Polo will continue to move over very warm waters and in a low
vertical wind shear environment through today. Fluctuations in
intensity are possible through today. By Saturday, a gradual
weakening trend is expected to begin due to some increase in shear.
The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the model
guidance, and shows the system still near major hurricane strength
while it approaches the Baja California peninsula. Rapid weakening
is expected when the cyclone crosses the peninsula and moves into
mainland Mexico due to land interaction and a further increase in
vertical wind shear.

It should be noted that moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys will
be carried a long distance into the southwestern United States this
weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a
heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.2N 107.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 17.3N 108.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 17.6N 110.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 112.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 21.7N 113.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 23.3N 113.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 26.4N 111.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 29.0N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 250855
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
200 AM MST FRI SEP 25 2026

...POLO REGAINS CATEGORY 5 STATUS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 107.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND NORTH ON SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, POLO IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH (260 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB (27.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH POLO, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL
FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 250855
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.5W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.5W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 107.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.3N 108.9W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.6N 110.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.7N 113.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 26.4N 111.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 29.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 107.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 250248
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
800 PM MST Thu Sep 24 2026

Powerful Polo continues to have an impressive presentation on
satellite imagery. The eye is estimated to be around 20 n mi in
diameter and is embedded within a 180 n mi wide Central Dense
Overcast of very cold cloud tops. The upper-level outflow
pattern is quite symmetrical, indicative of weak vertical wind shear
over the system. The advisory intensity is held at 130 kt, in
reasonable agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and
objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.

The hurricane is now moving on a mainly westward track with an
initial motion estimated to be about 280/9 kt. There is little
change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.
Polo is currently being steered by the flow on the south
side of a well-defined mid-tropospheric ridge that is building
westward over northern Mexico. This steering regime should
continue through Friday. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving
eastward across the northeastern Pacific should prevent the ridge
from building farther west, with Polo likely to recurve northward
and northeastward around the western periphery of the ridge. The
track guidance is generally in agreement on this scenario, although
there are still notable differences in forward speed among the
models in the 3-5 day time frame. The official forecast is similar
to the previous one, aside from showing a bit wider turn around the
ridge before nearing the Baja California Peninsula in around 96
hours. This is a blend of the latest GDMI and HCCA solutions.

Polo will continue to move over very warm waters and in a low
vertical wind shear environment through Friday. Given the conducive
conditions, the hurricane could regain category 5 intensity soon.
Around 36 hours, a gradual weakening trend is expected to begin due
to some increase in shear. The official intensity forecast is on
the high side of the model guidance, and shows the system still
near major hurricane strength while it approaches the Baja
California peninsula. Rapid weakening is expected when the cyclone
crosses the peninsula and moves into mainland Mexico.

It should be noted that moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys
will be carried a long distance into the southwestern United States
this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to
a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through the evening. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Wind gusts to tropical storm force may still occur along
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico this evening.

3. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 106.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.4N 108.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 17.5N 110.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 18.0N 111.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 19.2N 112.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 20.8N 113.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 22.6N 114.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 25.7N 112.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 27.3N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 250247
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
800 PM MST THU SEP 24 2026

...POLO EXPECTED TO REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 106.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE
OF POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT,
AND POLO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB (27.61 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
MICHOACAN, COLIMA, NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JALISCO, AND NAYARIT. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
CENTRAL JALISCO AND GUERRERO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL
FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM MST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 250247
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.5W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.5W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.4N 108.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 111.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.2N 112.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.8N 113.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 25.7N 112.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 27.3N 109.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 242051
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Thu Sep 24 2026

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has investigated Polo during the
past few hours, and its data indicates that the eyewall replacement
cycle mentioned in the previous advisory is almost complete. The
first aircraft pass reported concentric eyewalls of 15 and 30 n mi
diameters. Subsequent passes reported that the inner eyewall
dissipated, while the remaining outer eyewall contracted to 25 n mi
diameter. In addition, 700-mb flight level winds in the northeast
eyewall increased by about 15 kt during the mission, with the
maximum winds of 147 kt. The central pressure also started to fall
during the mission, and the estimated value from data on the last
pass is near 935 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
set at 130 kt. It should be noted that the strengthening observed
by the aircraft has not yet been fully reflected in satellite
imagery.

Polo is now moving west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. There is little
change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory.
A mid-level ridge building westward from northern Mexico should
steer the hurricane generally westward for the next 24-36 h or so.
After that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the
northeastern Pacific should prevent the ridge from building farther
west, with Polo likely to recurve northward and northeastward
around the western end of the ridge. The track guidance is
generally in good agreement with this scenario, although there
remains some spread in the forward speed between the slower HAFS
models and the faster GFS and HCCA models. The new track, which is
an update of the previous forecast, takes the center away from the
southwestern coast of Mexico this evening and then has it moving
across Baja California into northwestern mainland Mexico in 96-120
h.

The new intensity forecast now calls for Polo to strengthen for the
next 12 h or so after the end of the eyewall replacement, and Polo
is expected to regain Category 5 strength tonight or Friday
morning. After that, a slow weakening is expected through 96 h as
Polo encounters somewhat increased shear, with the caveat that
there could be some fluctuations due to additional eyewall
replacement cycles. Rapid weakening is expected when the cyclone
crosses Baja California and moves into mainland Mexico. The new
forecast again lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

It should be noted that moisture from Hurricane Polo and Odalys
will be carried a long distance into the southwestern United States
this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to
a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico today. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Wind gusts to tropical storm force may occur along portions of
the southwestern coast of Mexico this evening.

3. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 105.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 17.4N 108.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 18.7N 112.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 20.3N 113.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 22.0N 113.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 25.2N 112.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 27.9N 109.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 242050
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Thu Sep 24 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT POLO'S WINDS ARE
NEAR 150 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.5W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch for the southwestern coast
of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.5 West. Polo is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west is expected later today and Friday, followed by a west-
northwestward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core
of Polo is expected to move away from the coast of southwestern
Mexico this afternoon and evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected tonight.
Gradual weakening is forecast to occur starting Friday night and
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico this evening.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches across
coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima,
northern and southern Jalisco, and Nayarit. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible
in coastal portions of the Mexican states of central Jalisco and
Guerrero.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward
Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 242049
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.5W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.5W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 104.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.4N 108.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 112.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.0N 113.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 25.2N 112.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 27.9N 109.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 105.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 241759
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1200 PM CST THU SEP 24 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING POLO AS IT
MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 104.9W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H)A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE
OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH (240 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES (205 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 938 MB (27.70 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA,
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JALISCO, AND NAYARIT. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF CENTRAL JALISCO AND
GUERRERO.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL
FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 241440
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026

Satellite imagery shows that while Polo remains a powerful
hurricane, there have been some structural changes during the past
few hours. First, an AMSR3 overpass a few hours ago showed a new
outer eyewall was forming, indicating that the hurricane is about
to begin another eyewall replacement cycle. Second, while the eye
and the central convective features remain well defined, there is
now an outer band in the southwestern semicircle with infrared cloud
top temperatures colder than those currently seen in the inner core.
The various satellite intensity estimates have nudged downward, and
the initial intensity of 135 kt is at the upper edge of the
estimates.

Polo is turning more westward with the initial motion now 295/9 kt.
A mid-level ridge building westward from northern Mexico should
steer the hurricane generally westward for the next 36 h or so.
After that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the
northeastern Pacific should prevent the ridge from building farther
west, with Polo likely to recurve northward and northeastward
around the western end of the ridge. The track guidance has come
into much better agreement on this scenario, although there are
significant differences in how fast the storm will move during the
recurvature. One on side, the GFS, HCCA, Google DeepMind, and
Florida State Super Ensemble are faster, and the official forecast
leans towards them. On the other, the UKMET and the regional
hurricane models are notably slower with their forward speed.
Overall, the new forecast track is near the center of the guidance
envelope and is similar to the previous forecast. The new track
takes the center away from the southwestern coast of Mexico today
and then has it passing over Baja California Sur in 96-120 h.

Fluctuations in strength seem likely over the next day or so while
Polo undergoes this new eyewall replacement and remains in
favorable environmental conditions. The intensity forecast shows
little change in strength at 12 h and some slight strengthening at
24 h to try to account for the cycle. After 24 h, a slow weakening
is expected through 96 h as Polo encounters somewhat increased
shear. The new forecast shows a sharp drop in intensity by 120 h
as Polo crosses the Baja California peninsula. The new forecast
lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico today. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
coast within the warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo
for a few more hours.

3. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.8N 104.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.0N 105.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.1N 107.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.2N 111.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 19.4N 112.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 24.4N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 27.0N 111.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...GULF OF CALIFORNIA

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 241439
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026

...POLO STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 104.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 104.4 West. Polo is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
west is expected later today and Friday, followed by a west-
northwestward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of
Polo is expected to move away from the coast of southwestern Mexico
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible
during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 928 mb (27.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the coast of
Mexico in the warning area and should continue for a few more
hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the coast of Mexico during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches across
coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima,
northern and southern Jalisco, and Nayarit. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible
in coastal portions of the Mexican states of central Jalisco and
Guerrero.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward
Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 241439
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 104.4W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 104.4W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 103.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 105.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.1N 107.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.2N 111.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.4N 112.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 113.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 27.0N 111.1W...GULF OF CALIFORNIA
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 104.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 24/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 241133
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
600 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 POLO SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 104.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 104.0 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today and Friday, followed by a
northwestward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of
Polo is expected to remain offshore of southwestern Mexico today
before moving farther out to sea.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some near-term strengthening is possible,
and Polo is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane for the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the coast of
Mexico in the warning area and should persist today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico later today.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero through today. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is
possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco through today.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward
Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 240833
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026

Polo remains a powerful category 5 hurricane. Satellite images
indicate that the cyclone is maintaining a clear, distinct, and
circular eye surrounded by an intense and symmetric ring of deep
convection. The initial intensity is held at 140 kt, near the upper
end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Although the core
of the hurricane is about 50 to 100 n mi off the coast of
southwestern Mexico, outer rainbands are spreading onshore and
producing heavy rains. ASCAT data was helpful in adjusting the
initial wind radii, confirming that tropical-storm-force winds are
likely occurring along the coast of southwestern Mexico.

After jogging to the north last night, Polo appears to be on a more
steady northwestward track now, with the initial motion estimated to
be 310/8 kt. A building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the
south-central U.S. should cause Polo to accelerate to the
west-northwest over the next couple of days, taking the system
away from southwestern Mexico during that time. Polo will likely
reach the western periphery of the ridge over the weekend, and that
should cause the hurricane to turn northward toward the Baja
California Peninsula late this weekend and early next week. The
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and based on a
blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids.

Fluctuations in strength seem likely over the next day or so while
Polo remains in favorable environmental conditions, and any changes
in strength during that time will likely be linked to internal
dynamics. However, gradual weakening is expected this weekend and
early next week due to an increase in vertical wind shear.
Regardless, Polo is forecast to be a major hurricane during the next
several days. This intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one, and in best agreement with the HCCA guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico today. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions
of the coast within the warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to
Manzanillo today.

3. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.5N 103.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.9N 104.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 17.3N 108.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 18.7N 111.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 20.1N 112.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 23.5N 113.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 26.1N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 240832
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 POLO SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 103.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Manzanillo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja
California Sur should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 103.5 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today and Friday, followed by a
northwestward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of
Polo is expected to remain offshore of southwestern Mexico today
before moving farther out to sea.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some near-term strengthening is possible, and
Polo is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane for the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb (27.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
along the coast of Mexico during the next several hours. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast
of Mexico later today.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero through today. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is
possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco through today.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will
spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward
Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 240832
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 103.5W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 923 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 103.5W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.9N 104.9W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.3N 108.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 111.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.1N 112.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 23.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 26.1N 112.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 103.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 240536
TCPEP2


BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1200 AM CST THU SEP 24 2026

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EXTREMELY POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 POLO SPREADING
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 103.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF
POLO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY
BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH (260 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE, AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES (185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB (27.26 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO THROUGH TODAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH TODAY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL
FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 240245
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

The changes to the satellite presentation of Polo this evening
indicate the hurricane has significantly strengthened. The symmetric
eye has gradually cleared out and warmed, and it is now surrounded
by a thick ring of very deep convection with cloud top temperatures
of -75 to -80 deg C. The objective and subjective satellite
intensity estimates have quickly increased this evening as a result,
and the initial intensity is set at 140 kt, making Polo a category 5
hurricane once again.

Polo has taken a slow north-northwestward jog this evening, but the
long-term motion remains northwestward (320/5 kt). The short-term
track forecast has been nudged slightly northward to account for the
northward jog. A mid-level ridge over Texas and northern Mexico is
expected to gradually build westward during the next couple of days,
which should steer Polo to the northwest and west-northwest away
from mainland Mexico through Friday night. Then, an upper-level
trough is forecast to approach the west coast of the United States
this weekend. This will weaken the steering ridge and cause Polo to
turn toward the northwest and north later in the forecast period,
bringing the center toward Baja California Sur. However, there is
still quite a bit of along- and cross-track spread regarding the
details of this anticipated turn. The long-range portion of the
track forecast remains close to the previous one, closely following
the HCCA and TVCN aids through 96 h.

Now that Polo has completed an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), some
additional near-term strengthening could occur with conducive
environmental and oceanic conditions in place. The updated NHC
forecast accounts for this potential and lies on the upper end of
the guidance. Of course, strong hurricanes like Polo can also be
susceptible to intensity fluctuations related to internal dynamic
processes like ERCs that are difficult to predict. Regardless, there
is high confidence that Polo will remain a powerful major hurricane
for the next few days. Vertical wind shear is forecast to increase
over the hurricane in 48-72 h, and a somewhat faster rate of
weakening is shown thereafter. Overall, the NHC intensity forecast
follows the multi-model trends and lies on the higher end of the
envelope for most of the period.

The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning
westward from Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across portions
of the coast within the warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to
Manzanillo tonight into early Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.0N 102.4W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.5N 103.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.9N 105.6W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.1N 107.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 109.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 17.9N 111.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 19.2N 112.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 22.5N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 25.5N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 240243
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
900 PM CST WED SEP 23 2026

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE POLO MOVING SLOWLY
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF
GUERRERO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 102.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MANZANILLO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF
POLO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH (260 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE, AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB (27.26 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO AND TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENTS, AND COASTAL
FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 240242
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC THU SEP 24 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.4W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 923 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.4W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 102.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 103.7W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.9N 105.6W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.1N 107.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.3N 109.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.9N 111.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.2N 112.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 113.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 25.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 102.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 24/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART=


Original Message :

WTPZ62 KNHC 240042
TCUEP2

Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
640 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

...POLO HAS RESTRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that Polo has quickly
strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane with estimated maximum
sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h). This intensity change will be
reflected in the next routine forecast advisory package that will be
issued by 900 PM CST (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 640 PM CST...0040 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 102.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ62 KNHC 240040
TCUEP2

Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
640 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

...POLO HAS RESTRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that Polo has quickly
strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane with estimated maximum
sustained winds of 160 mph (260 km/h). This intensity change will be
reflected in the next routine forecast advisory package that will be
issued by 900 PM CST (0300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 640 PM CST...0040 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 102.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 232347
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
600 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

...STRENGTHENING POLO NEARS CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 102.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico should
continue to monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 102.3 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Thursday. A general west-northwestward
motion is forecast on Friday and over the weekend. On the forecast
track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of
southwestern Mexico through Thursday morning before it moves farther
out to sea.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h)
with higher gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is possible
during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
along the coast of Mexico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area along the coast of Mexico late
tonight and on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is
possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal
flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 232049
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests that Polo seems to be at
or near the end of its eyewall replacement cycle, as the eyewall
cloud tops have gotten colder during the past several hours, and the
eye is gradually becoming more distinct. The various satellite
intensity estimates are lower than they were six hours ago, but they
are no longer falling. The initial intensity is lowered to 125 kt,
and for the moment that could still be a little generous. The
hurricane's outer rainbands continue to affect the coast of Mexico.

The hurricane is now moving faster toward the northwest at 310/6 kt.
Water vapor imagery suggests a mid-level ridge is building over
Texas and northern Mexico, and the dynamical models forecast this
ridge to build westward to the north of Polo starting on Thursday as
an upper-level trough near Baja California weakens and lifts out.
This evolution should result in Polo moving northwestward for 12 h
or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion with some increase in
forward speed. There have been changes in the forecast guidance
since the last advisory for the forecast period after 60 h. The
cluster of models that was forecasting a northward motion has
shifted a touch to the west, while the cluster that was forecasting
a more northwestward motion has shifted more northward. So, while
there is still spread and uncertainty, the guidance is a little more
clustered than before. The biggest changes are the ECMWF and the
UKMET, which are now part of the northward moving cluster. The new
forecast track for this period follows the northward cluster to a
position west of Baja California by 120 h. Overall, the new track
is similar to the previous track through 72 h and a little west of
the previous track after that.

The intensity guidance continues to suggest a little decrease in
intensity during the next 12-24 h followed by slight strengthening.
However, since Polo is completing its eyewall replacement, it is
possible that intensification could occur at any time. So, the new
intensity forecast now shows re-intensification during the next 24
h. After 48 h, the environment gradually becomes less favorable
due to slightly stronger shear and the possibility of some dry air
entrainment. The guidance forecasts slow weakening during this
time, and the new intensity forecast follows suit. The new forecast
is again near the upper edge of the guidance for the first 60 h and
then lies closer to the middle of the guidance envelope.

While the center of Polo is forecast to remain offshore, outer
rainbands should spread across southwestern Mexico during the next
day or so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force
winds.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of
southwestern Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, and
a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect west of that to Playa Perula.
Interests in these areas should closely monitor updates to the
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.7N 102.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 16.9N 106.9W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 17.2N 108.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.7N 110.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 18.9N 112.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 22.2N 113.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 24.3N 113.4W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 232048
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

...POLO NOW MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
...OUTER RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 102.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 102.4 West. Polo is moving
toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Thursday. A general west-northwestward
motion is forecast on Friday and over the weekend. On the forecast
track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of
southwestern Mexico through Thursday morning before it moves
farther out to sea.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow strengthening is possible during the
next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico this afternoon and tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast
of Mexico late tonight and on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is
possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current
conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 232048
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.4W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 55SE 55SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 102.4W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 102.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.9N 106.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.2N 108.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 110.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.9N 112.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 22.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 24.3N 113.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 102.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 24/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 231737
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1200 PM CST WED SEP 23 2026

...POLO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AS RAINBANDS AFFECT THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.1W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, ALTHOUGH IT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 145 MPH (230 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED, BUT
POLO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES (165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB (27.50 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACAN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 231443
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

...POLO NOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 101.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 101.8 West. Polo is now moving
toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Thursday. A general west-northwestward
motion is forecast on Friday and over the weekend. On the forecast
track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, although it is
forecast to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected, but
Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane during
the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb (27.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is
possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current
conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 231444
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Polo is continuing to
undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, with infrared imagery showing
multiple rings of cold tops near and around the center. Overall,
the hurricane is not as intense as it was 24 h ago, as the eye has
become less distinct and the eyewall cloud tops have warmed. The
various satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, and
based on this trend the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly
generous 130 kt. Outer rainbands in the northeastern semicircle
have reached the coast of Mexico.

Polo is starting its forecast turn toward the northwest with the
initial motion now 325/4 kt. Water vapor imagery suggests a
mid-level ridge is building over Texas and Mexico, and the
dynamical models forecast this ridge to build westward to the north
of Polo for the next 2-3 days. This evolution should result in Polo
moving northwestward and then west-northwestward with some increase
in forward speed. The forecast becomes more uncertain after 60-72
h. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to the north to weaken
around that time as a mid-latitude trough moves into the western
United States. There is also the possibility of interaction with
Hurricane Odalys to the west. The guidance becomes divergent by
120 h, with the GFS/HCCA/Google DeepMind/Florida State
Superensemble showing a northward motion close to Baja California,
while the regional hurricane models/UKMET/Canadian show a
northwestward motion farther away from Baja. The track forecast
goes with the northward motion scenario, but there is a significant
amount of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast.

The trends of the intensity forecast guidance suggest that Polo
could weaken a little during the next day or so, followed by
re-intensification during the ensuing 24 h. The first two days of
the intensity forecast follow these trends, and there could be
fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles
superimposed on top of this overall trend. After 48 h, the
environment gradually becomes less favorable due to slightly
stronger shear and the possibility of some dry air entrainment. The
guidance forecast slow weakening during this time, and the new
intensity forecast follows suit. The new forecast is near the upper
edge of the guidance for the first 60 h and then lies closer to the
middle of the guidance envelope.

While the center of Polo is forecast to remain offshore, outer
rainbands should spread across southwestern Mexico during the next
day or so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force
winds.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of
southwestern Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect
westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 15.4N 101.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.9N 102.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.5N 104.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.8N 105.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.0N 107.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.2N 109.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 111.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.7N 112.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 23.2N 113.1W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 231443
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 55SE 55SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.9N 102.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 105.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.0N 107.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 111.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.7N 112.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 23.2N 113.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 101.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 231135
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
600 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

...POLO DRIFTING NORTHWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 101.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 101.4 West. Polo is moving
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A sharp turn to the northwest
is expected to begin later today followed by a general
west-northwestward motion later this week and over the weekend. On
the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, although
it is forecast to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected, but
Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane during
the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current
conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 230834
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

Satellite images indicate that Polo remains a powerful major
hurricane. The cyclone continues to maintain a distinct, circular,
and clear eye. However, the convection in the eyewall is not quite
as intense as it had been over the past 24 hours. Although there
have not been any recent microwave images available, there are
still signs in geostationary satellite data that the system has a
double eyewall structure. The initial intensity is set at 135 kt,
which is in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates.
The far northern bands are brushing up against the southwestern
coast of Mexico, and ASCAT data show winds to tropical storm force
just off the coast.

The cyclone has moved little over the past several hours, however,
a building mid-level ridge over Mexico and the south-central U.S.
should cause Polo to turn northwestward or west-northwestward later
today. This motion should take the center of the hurricane just off
the coast of southwestern Mexico through Thursday. Even though the
intense core of Polo should stay offshore, outer rainbands are
likely to spread across southwestern Mexico during the next day or
so, producing areas of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds.
Polo should pass well south of the Baja California Peninsula Friday
and Saturday, and then likely turn northward when it reaches the
western periphery of the ridge. Little change was made to the
previous track forecast, and this prediction is near a blend of the
HCCA, GDMI, and TVCA aids.

Fluctuations in strength seems likely over the next day or so, due
to internal dynamics, while the major hurricane remains in favorable
environmental conditions. However, a gradual weakening trend is
expected after that time due to an increase in easterly vertical
wind shear and slightly drier air. Nonetheless, Polo is forecast to
remain a powerful hurricane during the next several days. The NHC
intensity forecast lies generally near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of
southwestern Mexico, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect
westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.0N 101.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.4N 102.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 16.7N 107.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 17.3N 110.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 19.4N 112.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 22.4N 113.1W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
300 AM CST WED SEP 23 2026

...OUTER RAINBANDS OF POLO BEGINNING TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO..


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 101.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NEAR 2 MPH (4 KM/H). A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED, BUT
POLO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 918 MB (27.11 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACA!N THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 600 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 230833
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.4W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 55SE 55SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 101.4W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 101.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.4N 102.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 107.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.9N 108.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.3N 110.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.4N 112.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 113.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 101.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230545
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
1200 AM CST Wed Sep 23 2026

...CATEGORY 5 POLO STATIONARY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 101.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 101.2 West. Polo is stationary,
but a sharp turn to the northwest is expected to begin later today
followed by a general west-northwestward motion later this week and
over the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is
expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
day or two, although it is forecast to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected, but
Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane during
the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 905 mb (26.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current
conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 230253
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

The last few fixes this afternoon from the NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter
aircraft suggested that Polo was in the middle of an eyewall
replacement cycle (ERC). Flight level winds from the inner eyewall
had been decreasing in addition to rising pressures and somewhat
less pronounced warm core in the center. The secondary eyewall was
also seen on polar-orbiter imagery with a much larger eyewall taking
shape on both the SSMIS and WSFM microwave passes compared to this
morning. The satellite structure of Polo also looks less pristine
due to the ongoing ERC, with some erosion and expansion of the cold
cloud tops that surround the eye. Based on the earlier aircraft data
and evolution of satellite imagery since that time, the initial
intensity is being set at 145 kt this advisory, still making Polo a
very dangerous category 5 hurricane.

One-minute mesosector imagery over Polo has been very useful to
monitor its motion, and the inner eye of the storm has been
wobbling, with the best guess motion an northeastward drift at 45
degrees at 1 kt. The track guidance remains insistent that Polo will
soon undergo a slow but sharp turn to the northwest and
west-northwest as a deep-layer ridge centered over east Texas
continues to build in. In fact, the track guidance this cycle shows
even more of a leftward bend in 48-72 h as the ridge moves westward
with the hurricane. While the latest NHC track forecast is very
close to the prior one for the first 36 h, it is a little slower
given the current motion, and then further south and west beyond 36
h. This track will still take Polo close to, but just offshore of
the southwestern Mexican coast, where tropical storm conditions are
still expected. The latest NHC forecast lies closest to the Google
DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). Toward the end of the forecast
period, the ridge steering Polo is forecast to become eroded by a
combination of Tropical Storm Odalys located to its west, and a
digging mid-latitude trough moving into the western United States
coast. Thus, Polo will likely turn back northwestward or even
northward by the end of the forecast period, though this has also
been shifted west of the prior track following the leftward shift in
the guidance this cycle. There still remains significant uncertainty
in Polo's track in the 4-5 day period.

Environmental conditions remain very favorable over Polo currently.
Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain below 10 kt for the next
24 h, with plenty of nearby deep-layer moisture. In addition, Polo
is over the warmest sea-surface temperatures in the basin, which
also extend vertically well below the surface, which should limit
ocean upwelling of the slow moving hurricane. However, the big
question mark is how the ongoing ERC will evolve in the next
12-24 h. The last few microwave images already show a larger closed
eyewall taking shape. There are also hints of the ERC successfully
completing in the next 24 h in the most recent raw output from the
18z HAFS-A run. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast shows some
short-term fluctuations in intensity both down and up over the next
24-36 h, though it is difficult to forecast these inner-core
structural changes with much confidence. SHIPS guidance thereafter
continues to indicate an increase in easterly shear as the ridging
overhead intensifies, and the NHC intensity forecast shows gradual
weakening beginning by that time, with a somewhat faster rate of
weakening now shown in days 4-5. However, this intensity forecast
remains on the high side of the guidance except for the HFIP
Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA), which is a good 20-30 kt
higher than the rest of the guidance this cycle.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of
southwestern Mexico, and the Tropical Storm Watch is in effect
westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 14.7N 101.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.0N 101.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.9N 102.8W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.4N 104.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 16.6N 106.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 16.8N 108.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 17.0N 110.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 20.9N 113.7W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 230250
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

...POLO CONTINUES DRIFTING SLOWLY AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 101.3W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 101.3 West. Polo is drifting
toward the northeast near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow but sharp turn to
the northwest is expected to begin tonight followed by a general
west-northwestward motion over the next few days. On the forecast
track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of
southwestern Mexico through the middle of this week, although it is
forecast to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over
the next few days, though Polo is expected to remain a very powerful
major hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 905 mb (26.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current
conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 230249
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.3W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 905 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 55SE 55SW 45NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 135SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.3W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.4W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.0N 101.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 55SE 50SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.9N 102.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.4N 104.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.6N 106.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 113.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 101.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 222335
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
600 PM CST TUE SEP 22 2026

...POLO DRIFTING SLOWLY AS IT REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.4W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...900 MB...26.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NECESSARY TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST. POLO IS DRIFTING
TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 1 MPH (2 KM/H). A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF
POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH (280 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THOUGH POLO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY POWERFUL
MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES (150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 900 MB (26.58 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO BY THURSDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACA!N THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF, RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS, AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 222047
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Hurricane Polo this
afternoon and found that it had strengthened even more since this
morning. The highest 700 mb flight-level winds were 168 kt, which
corresponds to 151 kt at the surface using a standard reduction
factor. However, the aircraft also found that the central pressure
had dropped to an extremely low value of about 892 mb. This would
typically support even higher winds than 151 kt, so the advisory
intensity is set conservatively to 155 kt. The system continues to
look very impressive on satellite imagery with very deep convection
and well-defined upper-level outflow. The radial profile of the
aircraft wind data show hints of a secondary wind maximum so a
concentric eyewall may be developing.

Aircraft and satellite center fixes indicate little movement over
the past few hours. Global models show a mid-tropospheric ridge
becoming established over Mexico during the next couple of days.
This evolution of the steering pattern should result in a
west-northwestward track in the 48- to 72-hour time frame. In 4-5
days, the steering currents are more uncertain. However, Polo
appears likely to slow down and turn more northward by that time.
The official forecast is very similar to the previous NHC track.

Polo should remain in a very conducive environment of low vertical
wind shear, extremely warm ocean waters, and a very moist low- to
mid-level air mass for the next several days. Therefore even more
strengthening is possible. Given the suggestion of concentric
eyewall formation however, only a slight increase in intensity is
forecast tonight and fluctuations in intensity are likely over the
next few days. However, the hurricane is expected to remain very
intense through this week and, in fact, maintain category 5 strength
for a couple of days.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of
southwestern Mexico, and the Tropical Storm Watch is in effect
westward to Playa Perula. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 14.6N 101.5W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 15.0N 101.8W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 15.5N 102.4W 160 KT 185 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.2N 103.6W 155 KT 180 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.7N 105.2W 150 KT 175 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.0N 106.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 17.4N 108.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 18.7N 111.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 21.8N 113.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 222042
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

...POLO EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 14.6 North, longitude
101.5 West. Polo is nearly stationary, but a slow northwestward
motion is expected tonight followed by a generally
west-northwestward motion over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of
southwestern Mexico through the middle of this week, although it is
forecast to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 892 mb (26.34 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacn through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 222041
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 892 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.0N 101.8W
MAX WIND 160 KT...GUSTS 195 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.5N 102.4W
MAX WIND 160 KT...GUSTS 195 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.2N 103.6W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.7N 105.2W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 106.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.4N 108.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.8N 113.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 101.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ62 KNHC 221940 CCA
TCUEP2

Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
100 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

CORRECTED PRESSURE IN INCHES

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS POLO HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN
MORE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum winds in Hurricane Polo have increased to near 180 mph
(285 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has
dropped to 892 mb...26.34 inches.

Polo is nearly stationary but is expected to move generally
west-northwestward over the next couple of days.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ62 KNHC 221919
TCUEP2

Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
100 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

...CORRECTED PRESSURE IN INCHES...

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS POLO HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN
MORE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum winds in Hurricane Polo have increased to near 180 mph
(285 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has
dropped to 892 mb...26.34 inches.

Polo is nearly stationary but is expected to move generally
west-northwestward over the next couple of days.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ62 KNHC 221915
TCUEP2

Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
100 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS POLO HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN
MORE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum winds in Hurricane Polo have increased to near 180 mph
(285 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has
dropped to 892 mb...26.34 inches.

Polo is nearly stationary but is expected to move generally
west-northwestward over the next couple of days.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CST...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ62 KNHC 221858
TCUEP2

Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
100 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS POLO HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN
MORE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum winds in Hurricane Polo have increased to near 180 mph
(285 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has
dropped to 892 mb...26.34 inches.

Polo is nearly stationary but is expected to move generally
west-northwestward over the next couple of days.

SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Hagen


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 221748
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
1200 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS POLO EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST
OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.6W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 101.6 West. Polo is nearly
stationary, but a generally west-northwestward motion is expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of
Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico through
the middle of this week, although forecast to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher
gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is likely
through tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible Wednesday
and Wednesday night. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently enroute to investigate Polo.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb (27.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 221628

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.09.2026

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 130.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2026 0 14.8N 130.4W 998 39
0000UTC 23.09.2026 12 15.5N 129.5W 994 41
1200UTC 23.09.2026 24 15.5N 128.4W 993 40
0000UTC 24.09.2026 36 15.9N 127.4W 992 42
1200UTC 24.09.2026 48 16.3N 126.4W 991 45
0000UTC 25.09.2026 60 17.1N 125.2W 990 44
1200UTC 25.09.2026 72 17.7N 124.2W 989 47
0000UTC 26.09.2026 84 18.3N 123.9W 992 41
1200UTC 26.09.2026 96 18.8N 124.3W 994 37
0000UTC 27.09.2026 108 20.0N 125.1W 995 37
1200UTC 27.09.2026 120 21.2N 126.1W 999 33
0000UTC 28.09.2026 132 22.1N 127.1W 1001 33
1200UTC 28.09.2026 144 22.6N 128.3W 1004 31
0000UTC 29.09.2026 156 21.9N 129.9W 1005 27
1200UTC 29.09.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 34.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2026 0 31.3N 34.1W 1015 29
0000UTC 23.09.2026 12 30.5N 36.0W 1015 25
1200UTC 23.09.2026 24 30.2N 37.8W 1015 26
0000UTC 24.09.2026 36 29.8N 39.7W 1015 24
1200UTC 24.09.2026 48 29.9N 41.2W 1016 26
0000UTC 25.09.2026 60 30.1N 42.2W 1016 27
1200UTC 25.09.2026 72 29.9N 43.3W 1016 25
0000UTC 26.09.2026 84 29.9N 44.5W 1017 25
1200UTC 26.09.2026 96 29.9N 45.3W 1016 21
0000UTC 27.09.2026 108 30.0N 45.5W 1017 19
1200UTC 27.09.2026 120 30.3N 45.6W 1016 18
0000UTC 28.09.2026 132 29.9N 45.3W 1016 21
1200UTC 28.09.2026 144 29.2N 45.5W 1016 20
0000UTC 29.09.2026 156 28.5N 46.2W 1015 20
1200UTC 29.09.2026 168 28.0N 46.8W 1014 20

HURRICANE POLO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 101.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.09.2026 0 14.7N 101.9W 959 91
0000UTC 23.09.2026 12 15.1N 102.2W 949 93
1200UTC 23.09.2026 24 15.6N 103.0W 959 75
0000UTC 24.09.2026 36 16.2N 104.0W 951 92
1200UTC 24.09.2026 48 16.5N 105.5W 950 91
0000UTC 25.09.2026 60 16.4N 107.0W 944 96
1200UTC 25.09.2026 72 16.3N 108.8W 943 94
0000UTC 26.09.2026 84 16.2N 110.7W 945 89
1200UTC 26.09.2026 96 16.6N 112.2W 953 87
0000UTC 27.09.2026 108 17.4N 113.8W 949 87
1200UTC 27.09.2026 120 18.6N 115.0W 945 90
0000UTC 28.09.2026 132 19.8N 116.0W 955 80
1200UTC 28.09.2026 144 20.8N 117.1W 957 77
0000UTC 29.09.2026 156 21.4N 118.1W 965 71
1200UTC 29.09.2026 168 21.3N 119.0W 977 60

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 14.7N 154.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2026 36 14.5N 155.0W 1003 28
1200UTC 24.09.2026 48 14.8N 155.9W 1002 28
0000UTC 25.09.2026 60 15.2N 155.4W 1000 30
1200UTC 25.09.2026 72 15.8N 155.7W 998 36
0000UTC 26.09.2026 84 16.1N 156.1W 994 41
1200UTC 26.09.2026 96 16.2N 156.2W 993 42
0000UTC 27.09.2026 108 15.3N 156.5W 990 45
1200UTC 27.09.2026 120 14.4N 157.7W 988 49
0000UTC 28.09.2026 132 13.2N 158.3W 982 55
1200UTC 28.09.2026 144 13.2N 158.6W 978 59
0000UTC 29.09.2026 156 14.1N 158.5W 977 61
1200UTC 29.09.2026 168 15.1N 158.1W 978 58

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.6N 20.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2026 36 11.6N 20.0W 1007 29
1200UTC 24.09.2026 48 11.7N 20.8W 1006 32
0000UTC 25.09.2026 60 13.6N 22.9W 1006 34
1200UTC 25.09.2026 72 15.5N 23.6W 1005 34
0000UTC 26.09.2026 84 17.4N 25.0W 1006 38
1200UTC 26.09.2026 96 18.6N 25.8W 1008 43
0000UTC 27.09.2026 108 19.4N 26.8W 1008 33
1200UTC 27.09.2026 120 19.9N 26.9W 1009 26
0000UTC 28.09.2026 132 20.2N 26.5W 1010 21
1200UTC 28.09.2026 144 21.1N 26.0W 1011 19
0000UTC 29.09.2026 156 20.9N 25.6W 1010 18
1200UTC 29.09.2026 168 21.3N 25.3W 1011 15

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 33.8N 72.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2026 72 33.8N 72.0W 1003 36
0000UTC 26.09.2026 84 33.3N 71.4W 997 41
1200UTC 26.09.2026 96 34.4N 70.3W 997 36
0000UTC 27.09.2026 108 35.8N 68.5W 996 38
1200UTC 27.09.2026 120 38.0N 67.3W 994 35
0000UTC 28.09.2026 132 41.1N 66.1W 992 40
1200UTC 28.09.2026 144 42.9N 66.0W 994 38
0000UTC 29.09.2026 156 45.7N 65.1W 997 38
1200UTC 29.09.2026 168 47.6N 64.3W 999 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 10.6N 97.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2026 84 10.6N 97.9W 1005 23
1200UTC 26.09.2026 96 11.3N 99.7W 1004 28
0000UTC 27.09.2026 108 12.0N 101.4W 1002 31
1200UTC 27.09.2026 120 12.9N 103.0W 1001 35
0000UTC 28.09.2026 132 13.6N 104.9W 997 39
1200UTC 28.09.2026 144 14.3N 106.5W 993 45
0000UTC 29.09.2026 156 15.3N 107.8W 987 52
1200UTC 29.09.2026 168 16.8N 109.1W 982 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 12.2N 142.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2026 120 12.2N 142.0W 1003 28
0000UTC 28.09.2026 132 12.0N 139.9W 1002 34
1200UTC 28.09.2026 144 13.3N 137.9W 1001 31
0000UTC 29.09.2026 156 14.1N 136.2W 1000 32
1200UTC 29.09.2026 168 15.0N 134.3W 999 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221628


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 221455
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

Polo has a spectacular presentation on geostationary and microwave
satellite imagery, with a small well-defined eye surrounded by a
symmetrical area of very deep convection. The upper-level outflow
is quite prominent over all quadrants of the system and there are
strong convective banding features surrounding the central dense
overcast. A Subjective Dvorak data T-number from TAFB just after
1200 UTC was 7.0, corresponding to 140 kt, and assuming a little
more strengthening since that time, the advisory intensity is set
to 145 kt. Despite its great strength, Polo remains a relatively
small cyclone with its hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds
estimated to only extend about 30 and 80 n mi from the eye,
respectively.

The powerful hurricane appears to have stopped moving eastward, and
it is now drifting northward at around 360/2 kt. A deep-layer
ridge is becoming established over Mexico. This evolution of the
steering pattern should result in Polo turning west-northwestward
and beginning to move parallel, but fairly close to, the coast of
Mexico over the next couple of days. There is still uncertainty as
to how close the hurricane will get to the coast, and some wind,
rain, and surf impacts appear likely when Polo makes its closest
approach. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion
of the coast of Mexico and the Tropical Storm Watch has been
extended westward. Polo should begin to pull away from southwestern
Mexico Thursday night and Friday as the ridge keeps the system on a
west-northwestward to northwestward path. The steering currents
become more uncertain over the weekend when Polo reaches the western
edge of the ridge and nears Tropical Storm Odalys to its west.
However Polo is likely to slow down and move more northward around
day 5. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which lies
on the northern side of the guidance envelope.

Polo should remain in an environment that is very conducive for
strengthening during next couple of days. It should be noted that
for these intense hurricanes, inner-core changes such as eyewall
replacements are quite common. These changes can lead to some
fluctuations in intensity. However, Polo is likely to remain a
dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for portions of
southwestern Mexico, and the Tropical Storm Watch has been extended
westward along the coast. Interests in these areas should closely
monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 14.7N 101.6W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 15.0N 101.5W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.4N 101.9W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 16.1N 102.8W 150 KT 175 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.7N 104.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 17.3N 107.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 18.4N 110.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.8N 112.7W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 221454
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

...POLO IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 101.6W
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo, and
extended the Tropical Storm Watch westward to Playa Perula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 101.6 West. Polo is drifting
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
and west-northwest is expected tonight and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the next few days, although forecast to
remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 165 mph (270 km/h)
with higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is likely through tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
currently enroute to investigate Polo.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb (27.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the coast of Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of
Mexico by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 221453
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.0N 101.5W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.4N 101.9W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.1N 102.8W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.7N 104.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.3N 107.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.4N 110.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.8N 112.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 101.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 221155
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
600 AM CST TUE SEP 22 2026

...POLO REACHES CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 101.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB...27.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO, MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NECESSARY TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK,
THE CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH (260 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES (150 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB (27.35 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACA!N THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL GRAPHIC
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 220837
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

Polo continues to intensify at a very rapid rate, and it is closing
in on category 5 strength. Satellite images indicate that Polo has a
compact, well-defined eye surrounded by an intense eyewall. The
estimated initial intensity is 130 kt, which is based on a blend of
the latest subjective and objective satellite estimates. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Polo later today, and
the data they collect will provide a better estimate of the
cyclone's intensity. The intensification rate over the past 24 hours
is truly remarkable, with Polo strengthening by about 90 kt over
that time period. Despite its strength, Polo remains a relatively
compact cyclone with its hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds
estimated to only extend about 30 and 80 n mi from the eye,
respectively.

The major hurricane continues to drift to the east-southeast, and it
could become nearly stationary later today in weak steering
currents. A sharp turn to the northwest is expected tonight as
deep-layer ridging becomes established over Mexico and the
south-central U.S. This pattern should bring the intense core of
Polo near, but likely just offshore, of the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the next couple of days. There is still a considerable
amount of uncertainty in how close the hurricane will get to the
coast, and some wind, rain, and surf impacts appear likely when Polo
makes its closest approach. Polo should begin to pull away from
southwestern Mexico Thursday night and Friday as the ridge keeps the
system on a west-northwestward to northwestward path. The steering
currents become more complicated over the weekend when Polo reaches
the western edge of the ridge and nears Tropical Storm Odalys to its
west. This pattern change should cause Polo to slow down and gain a
little more latitude. The NHC track forecast has been nudged
southward, but still lies on the northern side of the guidance
envelope.

Polo remains in ideal environmental conditions and continued rapid
intensification appears likely, and the cyclone is forecast to reach
category 5 strength later today. It should be noted that in mature
and powerful hurricanes like Polo, internal dynamics often cause
intensity fluctuations and that could occur with this cyclone over
the next couple of days. Beyond that time, a slight increase in
easterly vertical wind shear should cause slow weakening, but Polo
is expected to remain a major hurricane throughout the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model
guidance in the short term, but falls to near the middle of the
guidance envelope from 48 to 120 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to remain offshore
of southwestern Mexico, it is too soon to determine the exact
location and magnitude of impacts. A Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect for portions of southwestern Mexico, and interests in these
areas should closely monitor updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.6N 101.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.0N 101.8W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.7N 102.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.4N 103.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 17.0N 105.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.4N 106.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 18.2N 109.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 220836
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 AM CST Tue Sep 22 2026

...POLO CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS APPROACHING
CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 101.8W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southwestern Mexico coast should
continue to monitor the progress of this system as additional
watches and warnings could be necessary today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 101.8 West. Polo is moving
toward the east-southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue today, with a sharp turn toward the
northwest and west-northwest anticipated tonight and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days, although
forecast to remain offshore.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued rapid intensification
is forecast, and Polo could become a Category 5 hurricane later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb (27.61 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 220835
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 101.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 102.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.0N 101.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.7N 102.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.4N 103.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.0N 105.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.4N 106.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 109.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 101.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 220540
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1200 AM CST TUE SEP 22 2026

...POLO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 102.1W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO, MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NECESSARY TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.1 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ALTHOUGH
FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH (215 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND POLO COULD BECOME A
POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES (130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB (28.20 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACA!N THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 220247
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 PM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

Polo continues to rapidly intensify (RI) this evening. On
geostationary satellite, the hurricane's structure is becoming
increasingly impressive, with the earlier ragged eye clearing out as
very cold cloud tops (-80 C and below) wrap around. In addition, an
F17 SSMIS microwave pass at 0105 UTC suggests the earlier eyewall
replacement cycle (ERC) observed from the NOAA-P3 aircraft has
completed. Not surprisingly, satellite intensity estimates are
quickly rising, with the latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB
up to T5.0/90 kt, with the DMINT estimate associated with that
recent SSMIS pass at 96 kt. Given the continued improvement of Polo
on satellite, the initial intensity is being increased to 95 kt for
this advisory.

The intensifying hurricane continues to move a little south of due
east, with its estimated motion at 105 degrees at 4 kt. This
short-term motion is expected to continue for the next 12-18 h
before mid- to upper-level ridging over Mexico intensifies. The net
result of this synoptic pattern change is that the primary steering
should flip in about 24 h, causing Polo to make a sharp turn to the
northwest and then west-northwest in the 36-60 h time frame,
bringing the core of the hurricane near, but just offshore of, the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Finally, toward the end of the
forecast period, Polo will likely be reaching the westward extent of
the deep-layer ridge. In addition, Polo may also be approaching
Tropical Storm Odalys that is forecast to be positioned west of
Polo, and much of the track guidance responds to this evolution by
showing the hurricane turning more northward by 120 h. There
continues to be quite a bit of cross-track uncertainty, both in
terms of how sharp Polo's turn to the northwest will be in the next
48 h, and also toward the end of the forecast when Polo could
experience binary interaction with Odalys. The NHC track forecast
continues to favor a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aids, but the track
uncertainly remains high in the 3-5 day period.

Now that it appears the earlier ERC has completed, it is hard to see
what could prevent Polo from continuing to RI for the next day or
so. Shear remains low, analyzed at 6 kt by UW-CIMSS, and there is
ample deep-layer moisture. Sea-surface temperatures are also very
warm (31 C) and extend vertically down 50-100 meters along the
short-term track of Polo per a ARGO profiler, which should limit
cooler ocean upwelling despite the slow motion of the hurricane.
SHIPS RI indices continue to be very high, with DTOPS showing an 81
percent chance of at least a 40 kt increase in intensity over the
next 24 h. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast will continue to show
RI, and now shows a 140-kt peak in 24 h. This intensity forecast
agrees with the HCCA intensity aid, and is also close to the 18z
HAFS-B forecast which also shows a 140-kt peak in its raw output in
24 h. Beyond that time, inner-core fluctuations related to
additional ERCs will likely lead to intensity oscillations, and both
the GFS- and EC-SHIPS guidance does show a marked increase in
easterly shear beyond 48 h. Therefore, slow weakening is shown in
the day 3-5 period, though it still remains a bit higher than the
intensity guidance consensus aside from HCCA. Regardless, Polo is
expected to remain a major hurricane through the entire forecast
period.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Polo is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane while it
moves closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to stay
offshore, it is too soon to determine the exact location or
magnitude of impacts. Residents in southwestern Mexico should
closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast. A Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico and
has been extended to Manzanillo.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 15.0N 102.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.9N 101.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.1N 101.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.6N 102.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 16.5N 103.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 17.3N 104.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 17.7N 106.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 18.6N 109.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 20.1N 111.7W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 220244
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
900 PM CST MON SEP 21 2026

...POLO STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE TOMORROW...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO MANZANILLO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 102.3W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO, MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO, MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE NECESSARY TOMORROW.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST. POLO IS MOVING
TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH (7 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO, AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
SHORTLY, AND A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE BY
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES
(130 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB (28.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACA!N THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1200 AM CST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 220243
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.5W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.9N 101.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 25NW.
50 KT... 35NE 45SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.1N 101.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.6N 102.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 103.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.3N 104.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.7N 106.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 109.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 111.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 102.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 212339
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
600 PM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

...POLO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 102.4W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 102.4 West. Polo is moving
toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected
to continue tonight, with a sharp turn towards the northwest and
west-northwest anticipated late Tuesday into Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near or south of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next
couple of days, and Polo is expected to become a major hurricane on
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 212052
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

Satellite images show that Polo has a ragged eye on both visible
and infrared images, with very deep convection starting to wrap
around a broken eyewall. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
been providing valuable data that show the cyclone undergoing an
early-stage eyewall cycle, with two wind maxes on the TDR radar.
The plane recently reported 0.5 km winds up to 92 kt, with
higher winds and lower central pressure on each fix, dropping about
1 mb per hour. These winds convert to roughly 75 kt at the
surface, and that will be the initial wind speed this advisory.

While the current eyewall replacement could slightly hinder
intensification, the last aircraft pass through Polo already showed
that the old inner eyewall was fading. Thus, given the very warm
waters, light shear and moist environment, a high-end rapid
intensification event is expected. The latest model guidance are
even higher than the last cycle, and the new NHC intensity forecast
follows the trend, but is still below the NOAA HCCA corrected-
consensus aid. An increase in easterly wind shear could cause some
weakening in the medium-range period, though Polo should be a small
and powerful hurricane throughout the forecast period.

The storm is drifting east-southeastward and should move in that
general direction for about a day before a mid-level ridge
intensifies over Mexico. This ridge should cause the cyclone to
turn sharply towards the northwest and west-northwest on Wednesday
and Thursday, bringing the core of the storm near or south of the
coast of southwestern Mexico. Eventually there is enough troughing
over the eastern Pacific to cause the system to bend more
northwestward at long range towards the Baja California peninsula.
The details, however, are pretty sketchy with a potential binary
interaction with Tropical Storm Odalys looming, which is helping to
cause a large north-south spread in the guidance. No big changes
were made to the NHC forecast, but it is a little farther west at
and beyond 72 hours where uncertainty is high.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Polo is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane while it
moves closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to stay
offshore, it is too soon to determine the exact location or
magnitude of impacts. Residents in southwestern Mexico should
closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast. A Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 15.1N 102.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.9N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 14.9N 102.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.4N 102.2W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 102.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 17.7N 105.5W 140 KT 160 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 18.6N 108.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 20.5N 111.2W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 212050
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWS POLO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 102.7W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 15.1 North,
longitude 102.7 West. Polo is moving toward the east-southeast near
6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected tonight, with a
sharp turn towards the northwest and west-northwest anticipated
late Tuesday into Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core is
Polo is expected to be near or south of the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Polo is expected to continue rapidly
intensifying, becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday, with further
intensification likely though midweek.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 212049
TCMEP2

HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 102.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 103.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.9N 102.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.9N 102.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.4N 102.2W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.1N 102.9W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.7N 105.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.5N 111.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 102.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 22/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211752
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1200 PM CST MON SEP 21 2026

...POLO NOW A HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 103.0W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED WESTWARD LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS LOCATED
BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH,
LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. POLO IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH (7
KM/H). A SLOW EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE
CORE OF POLO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POLO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY, BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY, WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION LIKELY THOUGH MIDWEEK.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES (110 KM).

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
DROPSONDE DATA IS 977 MB (28.85 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
KEY MESSAGES FOR POLO CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCDEP2 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL: POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS UP TO 12 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACA!N THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6
INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF OAXACA, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF FORECAST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH POLO,
PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV/GRAPHICS_EP2.SHTML?RAINQPF

SURF: SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 211453
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

Polo is in the midst of a significant rapid intensification
episode. Satellite images indicate a developing central dense
overcast with very deep convection in the core. Additionally,
microwave images indicate that a small eye has formed beneath the
overcast with hints of a banded eyewall. The initial intensity
is set to 55 kt, consistent with the latest TAFB classification,
and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is enroute to provide a better
look at the intensity.

Conditions look ideal for explosive intensification during the next
day or two, with Polo's small inner core over very warm and
untapped waters above 30.5C, within light shear and plentiful
mid-level moisture. Every model responds to these conditions by
showing rapid intensification, and the SHIPS rapid intensification
index is showing percentages as high as I have ever seen them.
The new forecast is raised from the previous one and is very
aggressive, but still below the latest HCCA corrected-consensus
aid, which verbatim would be at least a 99th percentile event for
intensification. Polo is expected to be a small but very dangerous
hurricane by tomorrow and beyond.

The storm is drifting eastward, and still caught in weak steering
currents. A mid-level ridge is expected to develop over Mexico by
late Tuesday, causing Polo to move towards the west-northwest or
northwest by Wednesday into late week. This could bring the core
of the storm near or south of the coast of southwestern Mexico on
Thursday, and then south of the Baja California Peninsula on
Saturday. There is a large north-south spread in the guidance,
which has both short and long-range implications. Generally, the
guidance has nudged southward again, and the NHC forecast is
adjusted in that direction. Given the spread in the track
guidance, this is a low-confidence forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Polo is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane while it
moves closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to stay
offshore, it is too soon to determine the exact location or
magnitude of impacts. Residents in southwestern Mexico should
closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast. A Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect for portions of southwestern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 15.4N 103.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 15.2N 102.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 15.1N 102.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 102.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 16.8N 103.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 17.6N 104.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 18.6N 107.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 20.3N 110.4W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211452
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

...POLO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 103.4W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 103.4 West. Polo is
moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow eastward or
southeastward motion is expected through tonight. However, a sharp
turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected by late
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be
near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Polo is expected to continue to rapidly
intensify, becoming a hurricane by this afternoon and a major
hurricane on Tuesday, with further intensification likely though
midweek.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through
Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6
inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and
Jalisco through Thursday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 211451
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.4W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 103.4W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.2N 102.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.1N 102.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 102.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 102.8W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.8N 103.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.6N 104.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.6N 107.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.3N 110.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 103.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211154
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
600 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

...POLO FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 103.7W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 103.7 West. Polo is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow
eastward or southeastward motion is expected later today and
tonight. However, a sharp turn toward the west-northwest or
northwest is expected by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Polo is
expected to become a hurricane late today and a major hurricane
by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible by Tuesday night or
early Wednesday along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico
where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall
associated with Tropical Storm Polo, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 210848
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

Deep convection associated with Polo has been gradually increasing
over the past several hours. A recent GMI microwave pass indicates
that Polo is developing a small core, which is an early indication
that significant strengthening could be beginning. The latest
satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and based on
that data and an earlier ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is
increased to 40 kt.

Environmental conditions appear very conducive for strengthening
with the vertical wind shear expected to be less than 10 kt,
mid-level humidities near or above 70 percent, and SSTs above 30 C
during the next several days. These conditions, along with Polo's
improving and compact structure, support rapid intensification. In
fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification indices indicates that there
is a near 90 percent chance of an increase in winds of at least 55
kt over the next 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is quite
aggressive and calls for rapid intensification, and shows Polo
becoming a hurricane later today and a major hurricane on Tuesday.
This prediction is higher than the previous one, but below the
latest HCCA guidance which shows Polo reaching category 5 status in
about 48 hours.

The storm will likely drift eastward or southeastward during the
next day or so in weak steering currents. However, a sharp turn to
the west-northwest or northwest is expected by late Tuesday when a
mid-level ridge becomes established to the northeast of Polo. This
pattern should bring the core of the storm near the coast of
southwestern Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and then well south
of the Baja California Peninsula on Friday. There is a very large
spread in the model solutions in where, when, and how sharply Polo
makes the turn. The GFS model is on the far south side of the
guidance envelope while the Google DeepMind ensemble mean is on the
northern edge. The NHC track forecast has been nudged northward, and
is in best agreement with the corrected consensus HCCA model. It
should be noted that given the complex steering pattern and model
spread, confidence in the details of the track forecast is quite
low.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Polo will impact
coastal portions of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain.

2. Polo is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane while it
moves closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few
days. Although the core of the hurricane is forecast to stay
offshore, it is too soon to determine the exact location or
magnitude of impacts. Residents in southwestern Mexico should
closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast. A Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued for portions of southwestern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 15.5N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 15.5N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 15.3N 102.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 15.3N 102.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 15.9N 102.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 16.6N 103.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 17.5N 104.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 18.7N 106.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 19.8N 109.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210841
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 AM CST Mon Sep 21 2026

...POLO EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 103.8W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The Tropical Storm Watch will likely be expanded westward later
today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 103.8 West. Polo is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow
eastward or southeastward motion is expected later today and
tonight. However, a sharp turn toward the west-northwest or
northwest is expected by late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Polo is
expected to become a hurricane later today and a major hurricane
in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible by Tuesday night or
early Wednesday along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico
where a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall
associated with Tropical Storm Polo, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 210841
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0900 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 103.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.5N 103.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.3N 102.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.3N 102.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 102.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.6N 103.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.5N 104.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 18.7N 106.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 103.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 21/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 210247
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026

After a brief hiccup in the convective structure on satellite
imagery this evening, several convective bursts have formed close
to the estimated center of circulation. Earlier microwave images
showed a decent low-level structure, though there was some
eastward tilt with height. The 00 UTC Dvorak intensity estimate
from TAFB was up to T3.0/45 kt, but the objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS were lower in the 29-39 kt range. Still,
these values are enough support to increase the winds to 35 kt,
making the depression Tropical Storm Polo.

It remains tricky to find the center this evening, but my best guess
is that the center is close to the ongoing convective burst and is
estimated to be moving east-northeastward or 075 degrees at 4 kt.
Over the next 24-36 h, Polo will likely be influenced by the
steering of low- to mid-level ridging south of the cyclone, with
most of the track guidance showing a slow eastward or
east-southeastward motion on Monday. On Tuesday, mid-level ridging
over Texas and Mexico is forecast to build in, and the track
guidance responds to this change by showing a sharp, hairpin turn to
the northwest that continues through the remainder of the forecast
period. The NHC track forecast is close to the prior one, though
shows a bit of a sharper turn in 48-60 h, and is a little to the
south and west thereafter. This track forecast roughly splits the
difference between the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach
(HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) aids. It is worth
noting some of the hurricane-regional models are further east, and
short-term trends will be monitored in the guidance over the next
day or so to see if any eastward adjustments are needed. Towards the
end of the forecast, it is possible Polo may get close enough to the
circulation of Odalys to interact, and there is significant track
uncertainty in 5 days.

Intensity-wise there appear to be few impediments in Polo's
forecast, with low shear under 10 kt, very warm 31 C sea-surface
temperatures, and abundant deep-layer moisture. While it may take
another 12 h or so for Polo to develop an inner core, its possible
the ongoing convective burst near the center is already initiating
that process. The intensity guidance is rather aggressive, with all
of the hurricane-regional models showing various degrees of rapid
intensification over the next 2-3 days in addition to the HCCA and
GDMI guidance. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast will also show rapid
intensification in the 24-60 h period, and now shows Polo becoming a
Category 4 hurricane in 72 h. Remarkably, this is still under the
latest HCCA and GDMI intensity in that time frame and its possible
future upward intensity adjustments will be needed. Thereafter,
inner-core fluctuations will likely govern the intensity of Polo in
the 3-5 day time frame, but Polo is still likely to be a major
hurricane through the end of the forecast period.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Polo will impact
coastal portions of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
of steep terrain.

2. Tropical Storm Polo is forecast to strengthen and move closer to
the southwestern Mexican coast as a major hurricane later this week.
Although it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude
of impacts associated with the system, interests in Mexico should
closely monitor its progress and updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 15.1N 104.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 15.4N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 15.4N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 15.2N 102.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 15.5N 102.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 18.2N 106.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 19.5N 109.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 210244
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM POLO...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 104.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 104.6 West. Polo is now
moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward
the east is expected on Tuesday, followed by a decrease in forward
speed and a sharp turn toward the north and northwest on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next
few days, and Polo is expected to become a major hurricane by the
middle part of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Polo can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header
WTPZ42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals
of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches
across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacn, Colima,
and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Papin


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 210241
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE 60SE 45SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.4N 103.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.4N 103.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.2N 102.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.5N 102.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.2N 106.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 104.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN=


Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 202058
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
300 PM CST Sun Sep 20 2026

The tropical disturbance to the south of Mexico, formerly Invest
99E, has become better organized with some convective banding
features over its eastern semicircle. Although a recent
scatterometer pass missed the circulation, low cloud motions
indicate that the system now has enough of a low-level circulation
to qualify as a tropical depression with an initial intensity of 30
kt this advisory.

The center has been difficult to track so far so the initial motion
is a rather uncertain 030/7 kt. According to the majority of the
track guidance, the system is likely to turn eastward within the
next 12 to 24 hours. This motion is apparently due to the system
being embedded within a broader cyclonic gyre near the southern
coast of Mexico. Later in the forecast period, the system is
expected to turn toward the northwest and move on the southern side
of a mid-level high. The official forecast is near the northern
side of the track guidance model envelope.

The depression should be situated within an environment that is
conducive for strengthening during the next few days, with very
light vertical wind shear, and very warm sea surface temperatures.
The official intensity forecast is near the model consensus and
shows the system becoming a hurricane in 36 h. It should be noted
that the Google DeepMind and HCCA guidance call for even faster
strengthening than shown in this initial forecast.


Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression 17-E will
impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico this week. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in
areas of steep terrain.

2. Tropical Depression 17-E is forecast to strengthen and move
closer to the southwestern Mexican coast as a major hurricane later
this week. Although it is too soon to determine the exact location
or magnitude of impacts associated with the system, interest in
Mexico should closely monitor its progress and updates to the
forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 14.9N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 15.2N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 15.3N 103.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 15.2N 102.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 15.1N 102.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 15.5N 102.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 18.1N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 19.3N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 202056
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172026
2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 104.9W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 104.9W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 105.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.2N 104.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.3N 103.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.2N 102.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 102.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.5N 102.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 18.1N 104.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 104.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=