Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for GONZALO-26 in Cape Verde on 25 Sep 2026 03:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for GONZALO-26

in Cape Verde

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

25/09 02:49 WTNT42KNHC250246

25/09 02:47 WTNT22KNHC250245

25/09 02:47 WTNT32KNHC250245

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 250246
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026
200 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure (Invest
AL90) has developed a closed, albeit slightly elongated, low-level
circulation this morning along with organized deep convection.
This convection is currently displaced mainly over the eastern and
southern semicircles of the circulation due to moderate westerly
vertical wind shear. Recent scatterometer data show maximum winds
near 40 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and TAFB provided a
subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt. Based
on these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm
Gonzalo with an initial intensity of 40 kt. A Tropical Storm Warning
has been issued for all the Cabo Verde Islands.

The initial motion is somewhat uncertain given the recent formation
of the center, but the best estimate is 330/7 kt. Gonzalo is
expected to move north-northwestward during the next couple of days,
steered by the flow of a deep mid-level trough over the eastern
Atlantic. As this trough lifts northeastward later in the forecast
period, the cyclone will be left behind in a very weak steering
environment, causing it to drift slowly over the eastern Atlantic.
On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of
the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Track guidance is in
fairly good agreement in the short term, though cross- and
along-track differences emerge beyond day 2. The official NHC track
forecast lies near the HCCA corrected consensus and the TVCN simple
consensus aids.

Gonzalo is currently located within a marginally conducive
environment that could allow for some slight strengthening,
characterized by sea surface temperatures near 27-28C and mid-level
relative humidity values around 60 percent. In about 24 hours,
vertical wind shear is forecast to increase to moderate-to-strong
levels. This increase in shear, combined with cooling SSTs and a
progressively drier mid-level environment, will cause a gradual
weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA
corrected consensus aid. Global model simulated infrared satellite
imagery depicts Gonzalo losing organized deep convection in about 3
days, and the forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical
remnant low at that time, and remaining a remnant low through the
remainder of the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect, later today and will continue through tonight.

2. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern islands of Cabo
Verde and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to
Senegal today through Saturday. Areas of flash flooding will be
possible along the western coast of Africa with some isolated flash
flood concerns for the eastern islands of Cabo Verde.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 13.2N 22.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 14.2N 22.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 15.6N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 23.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 18.7N 23.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 19.8N 24.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 20.2N 24.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 20.9N 24.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 21.7N 26.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 250245
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072026
0300 UTC FRI SEP 25 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 22.1W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 22.1W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 22.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.2N 22.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.6N 23.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.2N 23.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.7N 23.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.8N 24.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.2N 24.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 20.9N 24.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.7N 26.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 22.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 250245
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026
200 AM CVT Fri Sep 25 2026

...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 22.1W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for all of the Cabo Verde Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cabo Verde Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 22.1 West. Gonzalo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue over the next several days, with a
slower forward speed this weekend. On the forecast track, the center
will pass near or over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible today, with a gradual weakening trend
forecast to begin this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Cabo Verde
Islands within the warning area later this morning.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Gonzalo is expected to produce rainfall
totals of 1 to 3 inches – 30 to 75 mm — across the eastern portions
of the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday and Saturday with less than 1
inch anticipated for the western side of the island chain. Heavy
rain along the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau, The Gambia, and
Senegal will produce totals between 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm –
with isolated higher amounts along the immediate coast.

SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to affect the Cabo
Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM CVT.
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

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