Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-E-26 in Mexico on 27 Sep 2026 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-E-26

in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

27/09 08:58 WTPZ43KNHC270855

27/09 08:56 WTPZ33KNHC270854

27/09 08:55 WTPZ23KNHC270854

Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 270855
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026
300 AM CST Sun Sep 27 2026

The tropical disturbance located south of Mexico, formerly Invest
90E, has become better organized based on satellite imagery over the
last several hours. Scatterometry data from around 0300 UTC depicts
a closed circulation, with the system moving into a favorable
environment for further development. Subjective Dvorak
intensity analysis from TAFB also rated the system at 2.0/30 kt.
Therefore, advisories have begun for Tropical Depression
Eighteen-E.

The initial motion is somewhat uncertain since the cyclone has only
recently formed, but the motion estimate is around 285/9 kt. Track
guidance is in good agreement on steering this system generally to
the west-northwest over the next several days, with an increase in
forward speed as it runs south of a mid-level high over Mexico. The
current NHC track forecast generally falls within the middle of the
guidance envelope, favoring HCCA in particular.

SHIPS guidance suggests that vertical wind shear may be an
inhibiting factor for development for the first 24 h, before the
Depression is expected to gradually strengthen as SSTs remain warm
and mid-level moisture appears favorable. There is some uncertainty
with regards to SSTs due to colder waters potentially being churned
up in the wake of Hurricane Polo, so the current intensity forecast
is a little conservative at first, before depicting gradual
strengthening through the late weekend onward. This still falls
around the median of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 12.2N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 12.7N 99.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 13.2N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 13.8N 102.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 14.7N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 15.7N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 16.9N 107.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 18.7N 109.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 19.7N 110.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Evans/Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 270854
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
300 AM CST SUN SEP 27 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 99.1W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 99.1
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH (17 KM/H) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 270854
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182026
0900 UTC SUN SEP 27 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 99.1W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 99.1W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 98.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.7N 99.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 13.2N 100.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.8N 102.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.7N 104.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.7N 105.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.9N 107.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 18.7N 109.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 19.7N 110.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 99.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER EVANS/PASCH=

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.