Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for TWENTY-E-26 Off-shore on 07 Oct 2026 15:00 UTC

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Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for TWENTY-E-26

Off-shore

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

07/10 16:23 WTNT82EGRR071622

07/10 14:59 WTPZ35KNHC071457

07/10 14:59 WTPZ45KNHC071458

07/10 14:57 WTPZ25KNHC071456

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 071622

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.10.2026

HURRICANE RACHEL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 121.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2026 0 20.8N 121.5W 980 49
0000UTC 08.10.2026 12 21.4N 122.5W 983 48
1200UTC 08.10.2026 24 22.0N 123.8W 986 48
0000UTC 09.10.2026 36 22.5N 124.9W 990 45
1200UTC 09.10.2026 48 22.8N 125.6W 992 39
0000UTC 10.10.2026 60 22.9N 124.9W 993 37
1200UTC 10.10.2026 72 23.6N 122.9W 992 38
0000UTC 11.10.2026 84 25.9N 119.2W 989 49
1200UTC 11.10.2026 96 30.3N 116.6W 980 59
0000UTC 12.10.2026 108 36.8N 114.1W 989 27
1200UTC 12.10.2026 120 41.7N 108.3W 1007 20
0000UTC 13.10.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 94.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2026 0 22.3N 94.0W 1004 30
0000UTC 08.10.2026 12 22.5N 93.4W 999 37
1200UTC 08.10.2026 24 22.6N 92.0W 994 46
0000UTC 09.10.2026 36 23.3N 90.6W 988 47
1200UTC 09.10.2026 48 24.7N 89.3W 983 56
0000UTC 10.10.2026 60 27.3N 88.4W 980 58
1200UTC 10.10.2026 72 30.5N 88.2W 979 51
0000UTC 11.10.2026 84 34.1N 90.1W 1000 23
1200UTC 11.10.2026 96 35.0N 89.2W 1008 18
0000UTC 12.10.2026 108 38.1N 82.6W 1008 15
1200UTC 12.10.2026 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 100.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.10.2026 0 13.9N 100.2W 1005 26
0000UTC 08.10.2026 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.3N 103.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.10.2026 24 14.3N 103.7W 1004 24
0000UTC 09.10.2026 36 14.8N 103.5W 1001 27
1200UTC 09.10.2026 48 15.2N 105.8W 1000 32
0000UTC 10.10.2026 60 16.0N 106.1W 997 35
1200UTC 10.10.2026 72 17.1N 106.0W 995 40
0000UTC 11.10.2026 84 18.6N 106.3W 994 46
1200UTC 11.10.2026 96 21.0N 105.6W 999 34
0000UTC 12.10.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 30.3N 166.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.10.2026 60 31.0N 166.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 10.10.2026 72 31.4N 168.2W 1007 24
0000UTC 11.10.2026 84 31.1N 166.5W 1009 23
1200UTC 11.10.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071622

Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 071457
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026
900 AM CST Wed Oct 07 2026

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 100.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-E was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 100.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 071458
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
900 AM CST WED OCT 07 2026

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF
MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CURVED CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE EVOLVING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, ALTHOUGH A BIT ELONGATED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, IS SIGNIFICANTLY WELL-DEFINED TO DESIGNATE
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET
AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/7 KT. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER, THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, ABUNDANT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THIS WEEK.
THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS OR SO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 14.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.6N 102.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 15.0N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.3N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 15.8N 104.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 16.4N 105.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 17.2N 105.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 19.7N 105.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 071456
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.9W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 100.9W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 100.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.6N 102.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 15.0N 103.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.3N 104.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.8N 104.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.4N 105.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.2N 105.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.7N 105.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 100.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH=

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