Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for TWENTY-ONE-E-26 in Mexico on 13 Oct 2026 15:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for TWENTY-ONE-E-26

in Mexico

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GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

13/10 14:54 WTPZ41KNHC131453

13/10 14:51 WTPZ31KNHC131449

13/10 14:49 WTPZ21KNHC131449

Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 131453
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
900 AM CST TUE OCT 13 2026

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. LARGE AREAS OF BANDED DEEP CONVECTION ARE SEEN TO THE
NORTH AND THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN OSCAT PASS FROM 0630
UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED A CLOSED CIRCULATION, BUT IT WAS A BIT SHORT
OF BEING CONSIDERED WELL-DEFINED AT THAT TIME SINCE THE DATA STILL
SHOWED A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AREA OF WEAK WINDS WITHIN
ABOUT 75 N MI OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
AND CURVED BANDING HAS INCREASED SINCE THAT TIME, AND THE
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE TIGHTENED UP A BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T2.0/30 KT, AND
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/9 KT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
THEREAFTER, A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED
AFTER DAY 2 AS THE CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT IN WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS
IN BETWEEN THE WEAK RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND HURRICANE SIMON TO ITS
NORTHWEST. SPREAD IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LARGER THAN NORMAL FROM
DAY 3 TO 5, AND SOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS LIKELY ALSO DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN SIMON'S TRACK. A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM
TEXAS INTO MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COULD HELP
DRAW SIMON CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE OF MEXICO, IF THE FRONT IS POTENT
ENOUGH. REGARDLESS, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21-E COULD POTENTIALLY BE
VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND,
AND SEVERAL GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE CYCLONE MAKING
LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN OR WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE NHC FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HFIP CORRECTED CONSENSUS APPROACH (HCCA), AND
ISN'T TOO FAR OFF FROM THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW, ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAY 3.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE CYCLONE WORKS TO DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE CORE. AFTER THAT TIME,
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE 24 TO 72 H TIME WINDOW.
THE DTOPS IN THE ECMWF-BASED SHIPS GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A 74
PERCENT CHANCE OF A 65-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 H. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS 85 KNOTS OF
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 72 H. THE NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
BELOW THE HCCA AND GDMI IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT VERY NEAR THE HCCA
AND GDMI BEYOND DAY 2. THE HAFS-A AND HAFS-B MODELS STRENGTHEN THE
CYCLONE TO A CATEGORY 4, AND 36 OF THE 50 GOOGLE DEEPMIND MEMBERS
MAKE IT A CATEGORY 4 OR STRONGER, SO THE NHC FORECAST WILL
AGGRESSIVELY SHOW THIS SYSTEM REACHING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH AT DAYS 3
AND 4. BEYOND DAY 4, THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION COULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING, AND MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM LOSING SOME INTENSITY AFTER DAY 4.
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE AVERAGE. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IT WILL BECOME A STRONG HURRICANE DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 9.8N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 10.5N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 11.3N 99.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 12.0N 100.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 12.8N 101.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 13.7N 101.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 14.5N 102.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 18.6N 105.3W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 131449
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026
900 AM CST Tue Oct 13 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 96.5W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in southwestern and west-central Mexico should monitor
the progress of Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 96.5
West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A motion between west-northwest and northwest should continue
through Wednesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest and a
decrease in forward speed is expected on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid intensification is forecast during the next 3 days, and the
cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night and a
major hurricane by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E are
expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico
late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 131449
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
1500 UTC TUE OCT 13 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 96.5W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 96.5W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 96.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 10.5N 97.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.3N 99.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 12.0N 100.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 12.8N 101.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.7N 101.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 102.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.6N 105.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 96.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HAGEN=

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