Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for TWENTY-TWO-E-26 Off-shore on 21 Oct 2026 15:00 UTC

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Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for TWENTY-TWO-E-26

Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

21/10 16:23 WTNT82EGRR211623

21/10 14:39 WTPZ42KNHC211437

21/10 14:38 WTPZ32KNHC211436

21/10 14:37 WTPZ22KNHC211436

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 211623

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.10.2026

TROPICAL STORM 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 69.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2026 0 36.7N 69.0W 995 44
0000UTC 22.10.2026 12 37.5N 69.4W 991 47
1200UTC 22.10.2026 24 38.8N 68.4W 985 49
0000UTC 23.10.2026 36 39.9N 65.1W 984 66
1200UTC 23.10.2026 48 41.4N 59.5W 982 61
0000UTC 24.10.2026 60 43.0N 56.6W 986 51
1200UTC 24.10.2026 72 43.0N 54.8W 990 46
0000UTC 25.10.2026 84 42.8N 51.4W 994 41
1200UTC 25.10.2026 96 41.7N 45.7W 1004 38
0000UTC 26.10.2026 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22E ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 99.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222026

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.10.2026 0 10.0N 99.2W 1005 26
0000UTC 22.10.2026 12 10.0N 100.3W 1004 27
1200UTC 22.10.2026 24 9.2N 102.1W 1002 28
0000UTC 23.10.2026 36 9.7N 102.5W 1000 34
1200UTC 23.10.2026 48 10.4N 103.0W 998 38
0000UTC 24.10.2026 60 10.6N 104.2W 998 44
1200UTC 24.10.2026 72 10.9N 104.6W 999 41
0000UTC 25.10.2026 84 11.5N 105.6W 1000 41
1200UTC 25.10.2026 96 12.6N 106.5W 1002 44
0000UTC 26.10.2026 108 13.6N 107.5W 1002 33
1200UTC 26.10.2026 120 14.4N 108.8W 1004 31
0000UTC 27.10.2026 132 15.1N 110.1W 1004 26
1200UTC 27.10.2026 144 15.9N 110.8W 1005 23
0000UTC 28.10.2026 156 16.9N 111.1W 1005 22
1200UTC 28.10.2026 168 18.4N 110.7W 1004 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.7N 179.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.10.2026 96 15.7N 179.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 26.10.2026 108 15.9N 178.3W 1002 31
1200UTC 26.10.2026 120 15.2N 176.3W 1004 27
0000UTC 27.10.2026 132 14.9N 175.4W 1004 24
1200UTC 27.10.2026 144 14.6N 173.5W 1005 24
0000UTC 28.10.2026 156 14.7N 171.2W 1005 23
1200UTC 28.10.2026 168 15.3N 170.1W 1005 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 33.5N 61.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.10.2026 132 33.5N 61.2W 1010 35
1200UTC 27.10.2026 144 33.9N 58.4W 1009 43
0000UTC 28.10.2026 156 33.9N 55.5W 1008 32
1200UTC 28.10.2026 168 34.0N 51.9W 1007 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 30.2N 36.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.10.2026 168 30.2N 36.7W 1012 21

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211623

Original Message :

WTPZ42 KNHC 211437
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026
900 AM CST Wed Oct 21 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located south of
southern Mexico (EP94) has continued to become better organized this
morning. Deep convection has increased, and showers and
thunderstorms have become more concentrated within curved banding
features. A subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB
was T2.0/ 30 kt. Visible satellite shows that the low-level
circulation center is now well-defined, and advisories are therefore
being initiated on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated at 265/6 kt. A generally slow
forward motion is expected with a turn towards the northwest and
then north-northwest as the cyclone is steered along the southern
and western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. The
NHC track forecast leans towards the GDMI and HCCA solutions and is
on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The GFS and some of
the hurricane regional models continue to move the system more
southwestward over the next 12 hours or so and are on the western
portion of the track suite.

Environmental conditions are highly conducive for rapid
intensification. The cyclone is located over very warm waters in the
eastern Pacific within an environment of low vertical wind shear,
abundant mid-level moisture, and divergence aloft. Rapid
intensification guidance is also well above climatological mean,
particularly in the 12-60 h period. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS
RI probabilities for a 55-kt increase in 48 hours are 73 and 83
percent, respectively. Thus, rapid intensification is explicitly
forecast during that time. By 72 hours, vertical wind shear is
forecast to increase, and mid-level dry air could begin to entrain
into the circulation. As a result, a weakening trend is shown later
in the forecast period. The official NHC intensity forecast is near
the upper end of the guidance, although the Google DeepMind does
show a higher peak intensity.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 9.5N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 9.4N 100.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 9.7N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 10.7N 102.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 11.5N 103.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 12.5N 103.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 14.2N 104.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 15.4N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTPZ32 KNHC 211436
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026
900 AM CST Wed Oct 21 2026

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 99.3W
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two-E was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 99.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h)
and this general slow forward motion with a turn towards the
northwest then north-northwest is expected the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the system is
forecast to become a hurricane on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E are
expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Original Message :

WTPZ22 KNHC 211436
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026
1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2026

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 99.3W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 99.3W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 99.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 9.4N 100.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 9.7N 101.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.7N 102.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.5N 103.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.5N 103.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 14.2N 104.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 90SW 130NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 15.4N 105.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.5N 99.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY=

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