Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for MURASU-26
in India

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Original Message :

WTIN20 DEMS 010952
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 01.11.2026
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR THE NEXT 168 HOURS ISSUED AT
1000 UTC OF 01.11.2026 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 01.11.2026.

SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION INTENSIFIED INTO CYCLONIC STORM MURASU
[PRONUNCIATION: MURASU] OVER
SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
WITH SPEED OF 23 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO THE
CYCLONIC STORM MURASU [PRONUNCIATION:
MURASU] AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 01ST NOVEMBER,
2026 OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, NEAR LATITUDE 12.1ON AND LONGITUDE 85.3OE,
ABOUT 560 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI (TAMIL NADU, 43279), 660 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISHAKHAPATNAM
(ANDHRA PRADESH, 43149), 630
KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NELLORE (ANDHRA PRADESH, 43245), 640 KM
SOUTHEAST OF MACHILIPATNAM (ANDHRA
PRADESH, 43185) AND 680 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ONGOLE (ANDHRA PRADESH,
43221).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AROUND 0000 UTC OF 2ND NOVEMBER. THEREAFTER
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AS A SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM WITH WIND SPEED OF
100 TO 110 KMPH GUSTING 120KMPH BETWEEN NELLORE (ANDHRA PRADESH,
43245,) AND NARSAPUR (ANDHRA
PRADESH, 43187) DURING 1800 UTC AND 2230 UTC OF 2ND NOVEMBER, 2026.

FORECAST LOCATION AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
(UTC) (LAT.0N/LONG.0E) SURFACE WIND SPEED (KMPH) DISTURBANCE

01.11.26/0600 12.1/85.3 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
01.11.26/1200 12.6/84.3 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
01.11.26/1800 13.1/83.3 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
02.11.26/0000 13.6/82.3 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
02.11.26/0600 14.6/81.2 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
02.11.26/1800 15.3/80.4 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
03.11.26/0600 16.2/80.0 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
03.11.26/1800 17.5/79.9 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
04.11.26/0600 18.8/80.0 35-45 GUSTING TO 55 DEPRESSION

THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT
GUSTING TO 45KT.


A SHIP LOCATED AT 5.6N,86E REPORTED MSLP OF 1012.0 HPA AND MSW 1900

(WIND DIRECTION)/8.0KT,
ANOTHER SHIP LOCATED AT 5.57N, 85.0E REPORTED MSLP OF 1017.0 HPA AND
MSW 2100
(WIND

DIRECTION)/8KT,
AS PER LATEST INSAT 3DS IMAGERY BASED ON 0600 UTC, INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS T2.5. SPIRAL
BANDS ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUD IMAGERY. THE AREA OF INTENSE
CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO NORTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH AND ADJACENT CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, WITH
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE (CTT) AS -70OC TO -90OC. MULTI-SATELLITE BASED WINDS
INDICATE STRONGER WINDS IN
NORTHERN SECTOR.

STORM SURGE WARNING:

STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1.0 M HEIGHT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS VERY
LIKELY TO INUNDATE LOW LYING
AREAS OF SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH DURING THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
THE MAXIMUM PEAK SURGE IS
EXPECTED OVER BAPATLA, KRISNA AND PRAKASAM DISTRICT.

REMARKS:

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 290C OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND ENTIRE
BOB. IT HAS REDUCED BY 10C OVER
THE REGION COMPARED TO LAST WEEK. THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS 60-70
KJ/CM2

AND IS SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG & OFF
SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) IS
CURRENTLY IN PHASE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE
MORE THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE DURING NEXT 5
DAYS WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THE NCICS MODEL INDICATES THE PREVALENCE OF WESTERLY
WIND ANOMALY (7-9 MPS) ALONGWITH
MJO OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND EASTERLY WIND ANOMALY (7-9 MPS) TO
ITS NORTH OVER WESTCENTRAL BOB ON
1ST NOV. ON 2ND NOV., WESTERLY WIND ANOMALY (5-7 MPS) OVER SOUTHWEST
& ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BOB OFF
NORTH TAMIL NADU-SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS AND (5-7 MPS) TO ITS
NORTH OVER WESTCENTRAL BOB OFF ANDHRA
PRADESH COAST. PREVALENCE OF KELVIN WAVE OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF INDIA
WILL LEAD TO ENHANCEMENT OF
NORTHWESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTH PENINSULAR INDIA, BRINGING COLD AND
DRY AIR FROM NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION,
WHICH IS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR HIGHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME, ACTIVE MJO
PHASE IS PERSISTING OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND HENCE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM OVER BOB. DURING 2ND TO 4TH NOVEMBER, NO EQUATORIAL WAVES ARE
LIKELY OVER THE SYSTEM AREA.

VARIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES INDICATE, THE POSITIVE LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY AT 850 IS AROUND 150-200 X10-6
S-1 OVER SYSTEM AREA WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UP TO 200 HPA. THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 10 X10-6
S-1 TO THE WEST OF SYSTEM AREA. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS INCREASED
AND IS AROUND 30X10-6
S-1 OVER THE SYSTEM
AREA. THE AREA OF MAXIMUM CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE LAY NEARBY TO
EACH OTHER. MID-LEVEL WIND-SHEAR
(500-850 HPA) IS LOW (5-10 KT) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE
MID-LEVEL WIND-SHEAR 950-850 HPA), WHILE IT IS
CLOCKWISE IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER (UPTO 80OE), BECOMES
ANTI-CLOCKWISE OVER SOUTH PENINSULAR
INDIA, HENCE SUCH TYPE OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM, WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST,.
THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION MAY INCREASE FROM 1ST NOVEMBER EVENING
DUE TO SUCH SUPPORTIVE WIND SHEAR.

THE DEEP LAYER (200-850HPA) WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LOW TO MODERATE AROUND
THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OF SOUTH AND CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND
ALONG SOUTH PENINSULAR WHICH IS FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS 17ON IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANTICYCLONE
OVER MYANMAR. THE SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS BY THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
PREVAILING TO THE SOUTH OF RIDGE. HOWEVER AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND ENTERS SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL, IT WILL BE STEERED NORTHWARDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND CROSS SOUTH ANDHRA
PRADESH. AFTER THE LANDFALL IT WILL LIE CLOSE
TO THE RIDGE AND HENCE IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARDS AND NORTH-NORTHEAST
WARDS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, IT WILL COME

UNDER THE INFLUENCE THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WHICH CURRENTLY
RUNS ALONG 65OE & IT WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS 75OE BY 3RD NOVEMBER 2026. IT WILL ALSO NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO MOVE WESTWARDS RATHER IT WILL HELP
ITS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS RECURVATURE.
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES WARM MOIST AIR
INCURSION INTO THE CORE FROM AROUND THE
SYSTEM AND ALSO SYSTEM FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, COLD AIR INCURSION IS
REACHING OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTOR FROM SOUTH INTERIOR PENINSULAR. AS
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARDS SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH, IT MAY SUPPORT THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER.

IR-WV IMAGERY INDICATES INTENSE CONVECTION (COLDER THAN \U20133 TO 4

0C) TO THE NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE.

THUS MJO, HIGH SST, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM.
THE MODEL DIAGNOSIS BASED ON GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS INDICATES,
THAT CURRENT HIGH LEVEL (LOW TO
MODERATE) WINDS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BECOMING LOW WIND SHEAR
BY 06UTC OF 1ST NOVEMBER 2026.
THE LOW WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TILL 00UTC OF 3RD NOVEMBER 2026
SUPPORTING INTENSIFICATION. MIDDLE LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS AT PRESENT ABOUT 70% WHILE IT IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY 1ST NOVEMBER AND IT
MAY INCREASE THEREAFTER TILL 3RD NOVEMBER REACHING ABOUT 70-75%. THUS
SUPPORTS THE INTENSIFICATION.

THERE IS VERY GOOD CONVERGENCE AMONG VARIOUS MODELS W.R.T. MOVEMENT
OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS SOUTH
ANDHRA PRADESH COAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS VARIATION AMONG VARIOUS
MODELS W.R.T INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. MODEL LIKE ECMWF, ECAI, EC-AIFS, GOOGLE DEEPMIND ARE
INDICATING THE SYSTEM TO CROSS AS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM. MODELS LIKE NCEP-GFS, GFS-AI, AURORA, ECMM ARE
INDICATING THE SYSTEM TO
CROSS AS CYCLONIC STORM. SOME MODELS LIKE FGN, FCN, IMD-MME, NCUM-R,
PANGU WEATHER AND
GRAPHCAST ARE INDICATING THE SYSTEM TO CROSS AS A DEEP DEPRESSION.

HENCE CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE
AND MODEL GUIDANCE, THE DEEP
DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH SPEED
OF 23 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO THE CYCLONIC STORM
\U201CMURASU\U201D [PRONUNCIATION: MURASU]\U201D. IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AROUND 0000 UTC OF 2ND NOVEMBER.

CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN ESTIMATION OF:
(A) CURRENT LOCATION AND INTENSITY: HIGH
(B) FORECAST TRACK: HIGH
(C) FORECAST INTENSITY: MOD-HIGH=