Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for PENA-26
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.




Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 070241
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM HST Fri Nov 06 2026

Satellite imagery over the last several hours suggests that while
deep convection has weakened some around Pena's core, strong banding
persists well away from the cyclone's center. The latest subjective
Dvorak intensity estimate from HFO rated the storm at 2.5/35 kt, but
with a Data T of 3.0/45 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS also
range from 37-41 kt. Based on Pena's satellite presentation, the
initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/10 kt. Pena
is expected to keep moving westward over the next several days as it
is steered by a high pressure ridge centered over the central
Pacific. Track guidance generally exhibits good agreement on Pena's
motion through most of the forecast period, depicting a turn to the
west-northwest by the middle of next week as the ridge slightly
weakens. The latest NHC track forecast generally follows a blend of
HCCA and GDMI guidance, reflecting a slight poleward shift in the
long-range track compared to the previous advisory.

Gradual intensification is forecast for Pena as its surrounding
environment is characterized by low vertical wind shear, anomalously
warm SSTs, and ample mid-level moisture. In fact, SHIPS guidance
from the GFS suggests a 48 percent chance of rapid intensification
in 24 hours, reflecting the storm's favorable environment. Intensity
guidance on average shows a upward trend compared to the previous
advisory, so the latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted higher
to better depict this guidance over the forecast period. In a
couple of days, the vertical wind shear forecasts are more
uncertain, with some shear potentially undercutting the outflow
layer. Thus the forecast is leveled off, with model solutions
ranging from upper-end tropical storm to category 2 hurricane.
Confidence is increasing that the cyclone will undergo, at the very
least, gradual strengthening during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 11.2N 151.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 11.4N 152.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 11.3N 154.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 11.3N 156.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 11.3N 158.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 11.3N 160.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 11.4N 161.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 11.7N 165.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 12.8N 171.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Evans/Blake


Original Message :

WTPA44 PHFO 062055
TCDCP4

Tropical Storm Pena Discussion Number 1
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP042026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Fri Nov 06 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that an area of low pressure (Invest
CP95) that we have been monitoring for several days has developed a
well-defined circulation, showing banded convection around its
center. While the most recent constrained subject Dvorak analysis
from HFO was CI number was 2.0/30 kt, the Data T was 3.0/45 kt,
which probably better reflects the system's organization. A 1546 UTC
SMOS microwave pass supports that assessment, showing winds above
tropical-storm-force east of the center. Based on this, advisories
have been initiated on Tropical Storm Pena, with an intensity of 40
kt.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/10 kt, and
the storm is expected to continue this motion for the next several
days due to a high pressure ridge centered over the Central Pacific.
Model guidance remains in good agreement through 72 h on Pena's
track, then cross-track spread increases among the model solutions,
resulting in lower-than-normal confidence. Additionally, the storm's
initial representation in much of the guidance is too weak, which
adds another layer of uncertainty. The NHC track forecast has been
set to follow the GDMI and HCCA aids.

The intensity forecast is tricky because the overall environment
generally seems conducive to strengthening for at least the next day
or so. While there is an increase in shear in much of the models
this weekend, this shear could abate early next week, with no
obvious dry air or instability issues seen in the large-scale
guidance. It is a little puzzling why many of the models show little
change or even a weakening so quickly in seemingly conducive
conditions, though perhaps it is linked to the unrealistically weak
initial vortex representation of Pena. The first forecast is on the
higher side of the guidance and reflects a blend of some aids that
get close to hurricane-strength, while others weaken to a
depression. It probably goes without saying that this too is an
uncertain prediction, similar to the track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 11.3N 150.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 11.5N 151.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 11.4N 153.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 11.3N 155.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 11.3N 157.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 11.2N 159.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 11.0N 161.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 11.3N 165.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 11.9N 171.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pierce/Blake


Original Message :

WTPA24 PHFO 062055
TCMCP4

TROPICAL STORM PENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2100 UTC FRI NOV 06 2026

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 150.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....360NE 0SE 0SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 150.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 149.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 11.5N 151.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 11.4N 153.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 11.3N 155.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 11.3N 157.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 11.2N 159.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 11.0N 161.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 11.3N 165.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 11.9N 171.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 150.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/BLAKE=


Original Message :

WTPA34 PHFO 062055
TCPCP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PENA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP042026
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM HST FRI NOV 06 2026

...TROPICAL STORM PENA FORMS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BUT IS NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 150.1W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM ESE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 150.1 WEST. PENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, FOLLOWED BY NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER PIERCE/BLAKE=