Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ELVIS-25
in Madagascar, French Southern Territories

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone ELVIS-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001139
Name ELVIS-25
From - To 28 Jan - 31 Jan
Exposed countries Madagascar, French Southern Territories
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 95 km/h Tropical storm
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (29 Jan 11:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

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Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
WMO-RSMC La Réunion 95 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS JTWC 83 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 137 km/h 1.1 m 653 mm 0.5
GFS 101 km/h 1.3 m 560 mm 0.5
ECMWF 90 km/h 1.4 m 535 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Madagascar - Tropical cyclone ELVIS, severe weather (ECHO 04 Feb 2025)Thu, 30 Jan 2025 12:20

  • A new tropical cyclone ELVIS formed on 28 January over the Mozambique Channel and passed by the western coast of southern Madagascar on 29 January. The cyclone is moving south-eastwards over the southern-west Indian Ocean.
  • On 30 January at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 80 km south-west of the south-western coast of Madagascar with maximum sustained winds of 84 km/h (tropical storm).
  • ELVIS is forecast to continue south-east strengthening between 31 January and 1 February, after that it is expected to weaken and dissipate  over the South Indian Ocean on 2 February.
  • On 30 and 31 January, heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected over southern Madagascar.
  • In the meanwhile lightning events occurred in Vinanitelo municipality, in the Vohibato district of Haute Matsiatra region, eastern Madagascar, on 26 January, which caused five fatalities and two injured people. 
Detailed event map. European Union, 2026. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), WMO (1), INFORM (2), (1),