Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for ERNESTO-24
in Bermuda, Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Turks and Caicos Islands, Dominican Republic, Virgin Islands British, Montserrat, Dominica

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone ERNESTO-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001080
Name ERNESTO-24
From - To 11 Aug - 20 Aug
Exposed countries Bermuda, Canada, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Turks and Caicos Islands, Dominican Republic, Virgin Islands British, Montserrat, Dominica
Exposed population 60 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h Category 2
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (17 Aug 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Bermuda)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 157 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 194 km/h n.a. 539 mm 0.5
GFS 83 km/h 0.6 m 255 mm 0.5
ECMWF 180 km/h 1.7 m 630 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico - Tropical cyclone ERNESTO (ECHO 18 Aug 2024)Tue, 13 Aug 2024 09:16

  • A new tropical cyclone named ERNESTO formed over the western Atlantic Ocean on 11 August in the evening (UTC) and started moving west toward the Leeward Islands (the northern part of the Lesser Antilles), streghtening. On 13 August at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located over the Ocean approximately 65 km east of the Guadeloupe island (France) and 570 km south-east of Puerto Rico (USA), with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (tropical storm).
  • ERNESTO is forecast to continue moving northwestward over northern Guadeloupe island and closes to the Montserrat island (UK) on 13 August, sightly strenghtening but remaining a tropical storm. After that it is forecast to pass between the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on 14 August in the morning, as a tropical storm.
  • Over the next 48 hours, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. NOAA has issued a tropical storm warning over these islands.
Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico - Tropical cyclone ERNESTO, update (ECHO 19 Aug 2024)Wed, 14 Aug 2024 10:33

  • Tropical cyclone ERNESTO passed over northern Guadeloupe (France), Montserrat (UK) and just west of Saint Kitts and Nevis on 13 August as a tropical storm, strenghtening, with maximum sustained winds of 93 km/h. On 14 August at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located over the Ocean approximately 65 km north of the San Juan city (the main city of Puerto Rico, USA) and 120 km north-west of the British Virgin Islands, with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h (tropical storm).
  • ERNESTO is forecast to continue moving northward over the western Atlantic Ocean, very far from Turks and Caicos and The Bahamas on 14-16 August, strenghtening up to cat. 2 hurricane.
  • Over the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The tropical storm warning issued by NOAA over these islands remains in effect.
Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Bermuda - Tropical cyclone ERNESTO, update (ECHO 21 Aug 2024)Fri, 16 Aug 2024 10:16

  • On 14-15 August, tropical cyclone ERNESTO continued moving northward over the North Atlantic Ocean, strengthening. On 16 August at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located over the ocean, approximately 490 km south-west of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h (cat. 2 hurricane).
  • Its passage close to Puerto Rico on 13-14 August caused heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges that have resulted in 341 people evacuated in 108 shelters across the island.
  • ERNESTO is forecast to pass over Bermuda on 17 August around 12.00 UTC, with maximum sustained winds of 157 km/h (cat. 2 hurricane).
  • Heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over Bermuda starting from the afternoon of 16 August. NOAA has issued a hurricane warning over Bermuda.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2026. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), INFORM (2), (1),