Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for SAOLA-23
in China, Philippines

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone SAOLA-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1000999
Name SAOLA-23
Glide number: TC-2023-000164-CHN
From - To 23 Aug - 03 Sep
Exposed countries China, Philippines
Exposed population 34.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h Category 4
Maximum storm surge 2.2 m (01 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS JTWC 46 km/h 2.2 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF n.a n.a. n.a. n.a.
GFS 216 km/h 1.9 m 1255 mm 1.5
ECMWF 205 km/h 1.9 m 2544 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.

Technical Issue affecting Storm Surge Calculations

We are encountering a technical issue affecting the accuracy of Storm Surge calculations derived from the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Centre). Therefore we recommend to refer to the calculations based on the GFS (Global Forecast System) until the technical issue is solved. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause.

Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
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Philippines - Tropical storm SAOLA (ECHO 25 Aug 2023)Fri, 25 Aug 2023 10:29

  • A new tropical storm named SAOLA ("Goring" in the Philippines) formed over the northern Philippine Sea on 22 August and started moving west toward the northern Luzon Island and the Luzon Strait, as a tropical depression. On 25 August at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located over the sea, approximately 230 km north-east of the far north-east coast of Luzon Island, with maximum sustained winds of 105 km/h (tropical storm).
  • On the forecast track, SAOLA is expected to turn and to continue moving southward off the coast of Luzon (approximately 150 km east) on 25-27 August, strenghtening, with maximum sustained winds up to 195 km/h (typhoon). The storm may affect areas that are still recovering from Typhoon Doksuri. The Cagayan Valley Regional Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (CVRDRRMC) activated the CHARLIE Protocol (EPR Protocol) and raised the CVRDRRM Operation Centre's alert level to RED.
  • Over the next 72 hours, heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast over northern and eastern Luzon Island. PAGASA issued a tropical cyclone alert for this area.
Philippines, Taiwan - Tropical cyclone SAOLA, update (ECHO 28 Aug 2023)Mon, 28 Aug 2023 10:15

  • Tropical cyclone SAOLA continued moving over the northern Philippine Sea on 27 August, east of the coast of northern Luzon Island, strenghtening. On 28 August at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located over the sea, approximately 190 km east of the eastern coast of the Cagayan Valley Region, with maximum sustained winds of 213 km/h (typhoon).
  • The ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet) and DSWD report, as of 27 August, 2,307 evacuated people and a total of over 8,500 affected people across northern Luzon Island.
  • On 28-30 August, SAOLA is expected to continue moving north, off the coast of Luzon and toward southern Taiwan, strenghtening. After that, it is forecast to make landfall over the southernmost area of Taiwan on 31 August, with maximum sustained winds up to 213 km/h (typhoon).
  • Over the next 24 hours, very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over Luzon. Heavy rainfall is also forecast over Taiwan on 28-30 August. PAGASA issued a tropical cyclone alert over most of Luzon.
Philippines, Taiwan, China - Tropical cyclone SAOLA, update (ECHO 29 Aug 2023)Tue, 29 Aug 2023 10:10

  • Tropical cyclone SAOLA continued moving northward over the northern Philippine Sea on 28 August, toward the Luzon Strait, slightly weakening. On 29 August at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located over the sea approximately 200 km south-east of the Batanes Islands (the northernmost region of the Philippines) and 410 km south-east of the southernmost area of Taiwan, with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (typhoon).
  • DSWD reports, as of 28 August, 3,349 evacuated people, 2,472 sheltered people and over 21,300 affected people across northern Luzon Island.
  • On 29 August - 1 September, SAOLA is expected to continue moving north-west, passing the Luzon Strait and entering into the South China Sea, slightly strenghtening. After that, it is forecast to make landfall over the southern Guangdong Province (China) between 2-3 September, with maximum sustained winds up to 130 km/h.
  • Over the next 48 hours, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over far northern Luzon, the Batanes Islands and most of Taiwan. PAGASA issued a tropical cyclone alert over northern Luzon and the Batanes Islands.
Philippines, Taiwan, China - Tropical cyclone SAOLA, update (ECHO 30 Aug 2023)Wed, 30 Aug 2023 12:10

  • Typhoon SAOLA crossed the Luzon Strait moving west-northwest over the north-eastern South China Sea. On 30 August at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located over the sea approximately 125 km west-southwest of Basco Municipality (northern Philippines) and 185 km south of Taiwan, with maximum sustained winds of 250 km/h.
  • In the Philippines, almost 49,000 people have been displaced (of whom over 35,000 evacuated) and more than 196,000 affected across seven regions of the country.
  • In Taiwan, media report suspended classes and work in some southern and eastern areas.
  • SAOLA is forecast to continue moving towards south-eastern China, and it could approach the southern Guangdong Province coast on 2-4 August.
  • Over the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over far northern Luzon and the Batanes Islands in the Philippines, and most of Taiwan. Tropical cyclone and flood advisories are in effect over northern Luzon and the Batanes Islands. The Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan issued red warnings for strong winds and heavy rains over southern and south-eastern Taiwan.
Philippines, Taiwan, China - Tropical cyclone SAOLA, update (ECHO 31 Aug 2023)Thu, 31 Aug 2023 10:51

  • Typhoon SAOLA crossed the Luzon Strait on 29-30 August and continued moving west-northwest over the north-eastern South China Sea. On 31 August at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located over the sea approximately 295 km southeast of Shantou City, eastern Guangdong Province, south-eastern China, with maximum sustained winds of 250 km/h.
  • Following the passage of SAOLA over the northern Philippines, one person is still missing, almost 69,000 people have been displaced (of whom over 38,000 evacuated) and more than 305,000 affected across seven regions of the country.
  • SAOLA is forecast to continue moving west-northwest and it could approach the coast of Hong Kong, Macao, southern Guangdong Province and Hainan Island during the period of 1-4 September.
  • Until 2 September, heavy rain, strong winds and storm surge are forecast for the northern Philippines, southern Taiwan and south-eastern China. Red warnings for heavy rainfall are still in effect for southern and eastern Taiwan. China has issued the highest tropical storm warning (IV) in Guangdong and Fujian provinces. Trains to Guangdong have been halted, as have ferry services. On Friday, Hong Kong is set to issue its second-highest storm signal, T8.
Philippines, Taiwan, China - Tropical cyclone SAOLA, update (ECHO 01 Sep 2023)Fri, 01 Sep 2023 10:10

  • Typhoon SAOLA is approaching the southern coast of Guandong Province moving west-northwest over the northern South China Sea. On 1 September at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 145 km southeast of Shanwei City, southern Guangdong Province, south-eastern China, with maximum sustained winds of 222 km/h.
  • After its passage over the northern Philippines in combination with the Southwest Monsoon, one person died, more than 68,700 were displaced, 38,000 of which are sheltering in 469 evacuation centers, almost 390,000 others were affected across the country.
  • SAOLA is forecast to turn westwards and to pass over or close to the coastal areas of southern Guangdong Province, Hong Kong, Makao and Hainan Island on 1-4 September.
  • According to media reports, several flights have been cancelled in Hong Kong and the Guangdong Province.
  • For the next 48 hours, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge are forecast over the Provinces of eastern and southern Guangdong and southeastern Fujian as well as over Hong Kong and Makao. A red typhoon warning is in effect for south-eastern China while in Hong Kong and Macao, a tropical cyclone warning is in effect.
China - Tropical cyclone, SAOLA (ECHO 04 Sep 2023)Mon, 04 Sep 2023 10:20

  • Tropical cyclone SAOLA approached the south-eastern Guangdong Province on 2 September and crossed the Leizhou Peninsula on the same day moving eastward. On 4 September at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located over the sea approximately 95 km northwest of the northeastern coast of Hainan Island, with maximum sustained winds of 46 km/h (tropical depression).
  • According to media reports, tens of millions of people have been sheltered from high-risk areas across Hong Kong and south-eastern China (particularly over Guangdong Province), while 13 cities delayed the start of the school term on 1 September across the province of Guangdong Province.
  • SAOLA is forecast to move over the north-western South China Sea, north of Hainan Province weakening and dissipating.
  • For the next 24 hours, moderate to heavy rain and strong winds are forecast over south-eastern Guangdong Province including the Leizhou Peninsula and over the Haina Island.
China - Tropical cyclone SAOLA, update (ECHO 05 Sep 2023)Tue, 05 Sep 2023 11:18

  • Tropical cyclone SAOLA passed over the southern Guangdong Province (southern China) and over Hong Kong and Macao on 1-2 September, as a typhoon. After that it passed over the south-western Guangdong Province and entered into the Gulf of Tonkin on 3-4 September as a tropical storm, further weakening and dissipating on 5 September.
  • Its passage caused very heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges, triggering floods, landslides and strong wind-related incidents that have resulted in casualties and damage.
  • Media report, as of 5 September, one fatality and two injured people in Shenzhen City (Guangdong Province) and approximately 780,000 evacuated people in the same Province and 100,000 in the neighbouring Fujian Province. In addition, media report 86 injured people and more than 500 evacuated people across 40 temporary shelters across Hong Kong.
  • Over the next 48 hours, more heavy rainfall is still forecast over Fujian and Guangdong Provinces and over the Hainan Island.
SAOLA-23 - EC/ECHO daily mapTue, 05 Sep 2023 17:40

A new EC/ECHO daily map is now available
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Articles: 1892 | About casualties: 75 | Last hour: 0

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. Hong Kong mulls tightening air quality objectives2023-09-06T07:12+0200.

Tourists take a boat ride in Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong, as they bask in the sunshine on Sept 4, 2023, with the weather getting better days after Typhoon Saola battered the city. (SHAMIM ASHRAF / CHINA DAILY) HONG KONG – The Hong Kong Spec
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Wave-powered buoy records Typhoon Saola data2023-09-06T03:59+0200.

An in-situ, wave-powered, floating observation buoy has recorded data on Typhoon Saola, the ninth typhoon this year as counted by China's meteorological authorities, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). The buoy was launched
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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),