Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALVARO-24
in Madagascar

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone ALVARO-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001040
Name ALVARO-24
From - To 31 Dec - 04 Jan
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 127 km/h Category 1
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (03 Jan 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)


For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
WMO-RSMC La Réunion 95 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS JTWC 65 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 108 km/h 0.8 m 582 mm 0.5
GFS 79 km/h n.a. 309 mm 0.5
ECMWF 97 km/h n.a. 733 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone ALVARO (ECHO 03 Jan 2024)Wed, 03 Jan 2024 11:31

  • Tropical Cyclone ALVARO, formed in the Mozambique Channel on 30-31 December, moved east, and made landfall over the southwestern-central coast of Madagascar on 1 January. After that, it continued eastwards and crossed southern-central Madagascar on 2 January.

  • On 3 January at 0.00 UTC, its centre was located over the sea approximately 300 km east of Farafagana City (Atsimo-Atsinanana Region), with maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h.

  • According to the National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC), more than 400 people have been displaced and relocated to six evacuation sites, and 4,543 people affected. In addition, eight houses have been damaged, six schools completely destroyed and four others damaged. The worst-hit Regions are Haute Matsiatra, Atsimo-Andrefana and Menabe.

  • ALVARO is forecast to move south-east weakening and dissipating over the sea. For the next 24 hours, moderate rain is expected over most of Madagascar including the southern-central Regions. 
ALVARO-24 - UNITAR-UNOSAT ActivationThu, 04 Jan 2024 14:24

UNITAR-UNOSAT Potentially Damaged Buildings has been activated
Madagascar - Tropical Cyclone ALVARO, update (ECHO 05 Jan 2024)Fri, 05 Jan 2024 10:02

  • Tropical cyclone ALVARO made landfall over the southwestern-central coast of Madagascar on 1 January and crossed the southern-central regions on 2 January, resulting in casualties and an increasing number of affected people.
  • The worst-hit regions are Atsimo-Andrefana, Menabe, Matsiatra, Ihorombe and Fitovinany.
  • According to the National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC), 10 people died, more than 9,500 people have been relocated to 36 evacuation centres, almost 26,000 people are affected, 241 settlements have been completely destroyed, 426 houses damaged as well as 15 schools.
  • For the next 24 hours, light to moderate rain with isolated thunderstorms is expected across northern, eastern, and south-eastern Madagascar.
ALVARO-24 - UNITAR-UNOSAT ActivationFri, 05 Jan 2024 15:42

UNITAR-UNOSAT Potentially Damaged Buildings has been activated
ALVARO-24 - UNITAR-UNOSAT ActivationMon, 08 Jan 2024 15:30

UNITAR-UNOSAT Potentially Damaged Buildings has been activated
Detailed event map. European Union, 2024. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), WMO (1), INFORM (2),