Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-25
Off-shore

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001204
Name LORENA-25
From - To 02 Sep - 05 Sep
Exposed countries Off-shore
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h Category 1
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (05 Sep 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability --

GDACS Score

For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 139 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF 144 km/h 0.5 m 453 mm 0.5
GFS 148 km/h 0.4 m 457 mm 0.5
ECMWF 43 km/h 0.4 m 441 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Mexico - Tropical depression TWELVE (ECHO 07 Sep 2025)Tue, 02 Sep 2025 10:16

  • A tropical depression formed over the eastern Pacific Ocean, close to the western coast of central-western Mexico, and is moving northwestward, strengthening.
  • On 2 September at 3.00 UTC, its centre is located over the sea, about 230 km south-southwest of Manzanillo city, Colima state, central-western Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and higher gusts.
  • TWELVE is expected moving northwest, and the system will likely become a tropical storm in the late morning of 2 September. After that, it will continue in the same direction until 4 September, and on 5 September it could turn northeast and make landfall over the coast of Baja California as a tropical storm.
  • From 2–5 September, heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected over the coastal areas of western and northwestern Mexico, from Colima to Baja California.

 

Mexico - Tropical cyclone LORENA, update (ECHO 08 Sep 2025)Wed, 03 Sep 2025 10:34

  • Tropical cyclone LORENA continued toward the northwest over the eastern Pacific Ocean. As of 3 September at 6:00 UTC, its centre is located approximately 232 km south of Cabo San Lucas - a city in southern Baja California Sur state - with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h (tropical storm strength).
  • LORENA is expected to move parallel to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on 3–4 September, strengthening to a Category 1 hurricane. It could then approach the coast of Baja California Sur state on 5 September as a tropical storm.
  • From 3–5 September, heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast for most of Baja California, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Nayarit, and Sinaloa states.

 

Mexico - Tropical cyclone LORENA, update (ECHO 09 Sep 2025)Thu, 04 Sep 2025 10:27

  • Tropical cyclone LORENA continues toward the northwest, parallel to the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula. On 4 September at 06:00 UTC, its centre was located approximately 200 km southwest of San Carlos, western Baja California Sur with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h (hurricane, Category 1).
  • LORENA is expected to continue parallel to the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula through 4 September, then turn north-northeastward and approach the coast of Baja California Sur on 4–5 September. The storm is projected to cross the central Baja California Peninsula on 5 September, weakening to a tropical storm.
  • Heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected across most of Baja California, Sinaloa, and Sonora on 4–6 September.
  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the west coast of Baja California Sur, from Santa Fe to Punta Eugenia.

 

Detailed event map. European Union, 2025. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

Estate pronta a tornare protagonista dopo una fase di maltempo, previs.. 9/2/2025 2:36:00 PM.

Infatti le intense perturbazioni che tra la fine di agosto e l’inizio di settembre hanno interessato la nostra Penisola lasceranno spazio a una nuova fase soleggiata e calda, che coinvolgerà in maniera più decisa soprattutto il centro-sud.
...(more)
PREVISIONI METEO – Dopo la fase di maltempo l’estate prova a tornare p.. 9/2/2025 1:43:00 PM.

Manuel Mazzoleni di 3bmeteo.com: “Le intense perturbazioni che tra la fine di agosto e l’inizio di settembre hanno interessato la nostra Penisola lasceranno spazio a una nuova fase soleggiata e calda, che coinvolgerà in maniera più decisa s
...(more)
Dopo la fase di maltempo l''estate prova a tornare protagonista 9/2/2025 1:18:00 PM.

Dopo le intense perturbazioni che, tra la fine di agosto e l’inizio dell’autunno meteorologico, hanno interessato la nostra Penisola incentivate prima dai resti dell’ex uragano Erin e poi dall’ex tempesta tropicale Fernand l’estate proverà
...(more)
Uragani in crescita tra Pacifico e Atlantico: allerta dal National Hur.. 9/2/2025 1:09:00 PM.

Uragani: settembre porta nuove tempeste. Settembre si apre con notizie che attirano l’attenzione degli esperti di uragani . Il sta monitorando una depressione tropicale formatasi a poco più di 100 miglia al largo della costa sud-occidentale
...(more)

View more news

Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), INFORM (1), (1),