Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IMELDA-25
in Bermuda, Bahamas, Cuba

Event summary

Tropical Cyclone IMELDA-25 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed, exposed population and vulnerability.

GDACS ID TC 1001216
Name IMELDA-25
From - To 26 Sep - 02 Oct
Exposed countries Bermuda, Bahamas, Cuba
Exposed population 60 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h Category 2
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (29 Sep 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Bermuda)

GDACS Score

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Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS NOAA 157 km/h 1.1 m n.a. 0.5
Single TC: maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge, rainfall)
HWRF n.a n.a. n.a. n.a.
GFS 202 km/h 1.2 m 3920 mm 0.5
ECMWF 205 km/h 1.4 m 1761 mm 0.5
Maximum expected impact (wind, storm surge and rainfall) using different data sources.
Virtual OSOCC
Meteo assessment
Satellite products
Analytical products
Bahamas, Cuba - Tropical cyclone IMELDA (ECHO 04 Oct 2025)Mon, 29 Sep 2025 10:06

  • A new tropical cyclone named IMELDA formed over the Atlantic Ocean, in the northern coast of Cuba, in the evening (UTC) of 26 September, and started moving north-northwest toward the Bahamas, strengthening.
  • On 29 September at 3.00 UTC, its centre was located over the sea of the eastern Bahamas, in the island of New Providence, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (tropical storm).
  • IMELDA is expected to make landfall on 29 September over Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas with maximum sustained winds up to 83 km/h as tropical storm, it is forecast to move northeast over the North Atlantic Ocean.
  • In Eastern Cuba, IMELDA has caused intense rainfall and floods. Some municipalities have received accumulations of more than 500 mm/m² of rainfall. The most affected provinces are Santiago and Guantánamo. Damages are still being assessed.
  • Over the next 24 hours, rainfall and strong winds are forecast over the Bahamas and eastern Cuba. NOAA has issued a tropical storm warning for the Central Bahamas.
 The Bahamas, USA, Bermuda - Tropical cyclone IMELDA, update (ECHO 05 Oct 2025)Tue, 30 Sep 2025 09:28

  • Tropical cyclone IMELDA passed over the Great Abaco island (northern Bahamas) on 29 September around 12.00 UTC, with maximum sustained winds up to 93 km/h (tropical storm). On 30 September at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located over the North Atlantic Ocean, approximately 1,160 km west of Bermuda and 320 km east of the eastern coast of central Florida (USA), with maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h.
  • Media report, as of 30 September, one fatality in Volusia county (eastern Florida), due to the storm surge. In addition, FEMA also reports six shelters on standby across South Carolina (USA).
  • On the forecast track, IMELDA is expected to pass very close to northern Bermuda on 2 October very early in the morning (UTC), with maximum sustained winds up to 148 km/h (category 1 hurricane).
  • Over the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall is forecast over North Carolina (USA). Heavy rainfall is also forecast over Bermuda on 1-2 October. NOAA has issued a hurricane watch over Bermuda.
The Bahamas, USA, Bermuda, Cuba - Tropical cyclone IMELDA, update (ECHO 06 Oct 2025)Wed, 01 Oct 2025 11:27

  • Tropical cyclone IMELDA continued moving north-east over the North Atlantic Ocean, strengthening, with maximum sustained winds up to 139 km/h (category 1 hurricane). On 1 October at 6.00 UTC, its centre was located over the North Atlantic Ocean, approximately 745 km west of Bermuda and 740 km east of the eastern coast of central Florida (USA), with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h.
  • Media report, as of 1 October, three fatalities, of whom two were across the Santiago de Cuba province (Cuba) and one more in Volusia county (eastern Florida, USA). In addition, the media also reports more than 18,000 evacuated people across Cuba.
  • On the forecast track, IMELDA is expected to pass very close to northern Bermuda on 2 October very early in the morning (UTC), with maximum sustained winds up to 157 km/h (category 2 hurricane).
  • Over the next 48 hours, heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surges are forecast over Bermuda. NOAA has issued a hurricane warning over Bermuda.
Detailed event map. European Union, 2025. Map produced by EC-JRC.
The boundaries and the names shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the European Union.

Updates on volcanic activity (Smithsonian)

Latest media headlines

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...IMELDA BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLA.. 10/2/2025 4:41:00 PM.

...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY... Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025 SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------
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Public Advisory #23A 10/2/2025 12:21:00 PM.

000 WTNT34 KNHC 021139 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 800 AM AST Thu Oct 02 2025 ...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA AS IMELDA MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE I
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Estimated casualties (PAGER)

USGS estimates the number of casualties for each earthquake for the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) product.
The graph shows the current fatalities estimate.

Exposed population

Data, images, links, services and documents

For this events, GDACS has links to information from the following sources: EC-JRC (40), (2), INFORM (2),