Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KELVIN-18
in Australia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 148 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (17 Feb 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 111 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 148 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 16 Feb 2018 06:00 148 3 thousand Few people affected Australia
Green 2 16 Feb 2018 12:00 148 20 thousand Few people affected Australia
Green 3 16 Feb 2018 18:00 130 3 thousand Few people affected Australia
Green 4 17 Feb 2018 00:00 102 30 thousand No people Australia
Green 5 17 Feb 2018 06:00 102 20 thousand No people Australia
Green 6 17 Feb 2018 12:00 93 20 thousand No people Australia
Green 7 17 Feb 2018 18:00 111 20 thousand No people Australia

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon)
GREEN
1 16 Feb 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 56 <1000 people no people -18, 121.4
GREEN
2 16 Feb 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 1100 people no people -18.4, 120.9
GREEN
3 16 Feb 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 <1000 people no people -18.5, 120.6
GREEN
4 17 Feb 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 5800 people no people -18.8, 120.2
GREEN
5 17 Feb 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 2100 people no people -18.9, 120.4
GREEN
6 17 Feb 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 15000 people no people -19.2, 120.7
GREEN
7 17 Feb 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 15000 people no people -19.2, 121
GREEN
7 18 Feb 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 15000 people no people -19.9, 121.7
GREEN
7 18 Feb 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 5400 people no people -21, 122.2
GREEN
7 19 Feb 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 4400 people no people -22.5, 122.5
GREEN
7 19 Feb 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -24.2, 122.8
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 17 Feb 2018 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (7 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 17 Feb 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
17 Feb 2018 07:00 Derby Australia  0.7
17 Feb 2018 18:00 Thangoo Australia  0.5
17 Feb 2018 18:00 Broome Australia  0.4
17 Feb 2018 17:00 Waterbank Australia  0.3
17 Feb 2018 17:00 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.3
17 Feb 2018 05:00 Kollan I Australia  0.3
17 Feb 2018 05:00 Pender Australia  0.2