Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for DUMAZILE-18 in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar from 02 Mar 2018 12:00 UTC to 03 Mar 2018 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for DUMAZILE-18

in Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DUMAZILE-18 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (04 Mar 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Reunion)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	148 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	213 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	02 Mar 2018 12:00	194	8.8 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
2	02 Mar 2018 18:00	213	8.6 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	03 Mar 2018 00:00	213	8.3 million	No people	Madagascar, Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
4	03 Mar 2018 06:00	204	9.4 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
5	03 Mar 2018 12:00	157	17.1 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
6	03 Mar 2018 18:00	148	16.9 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	02 Mar 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-12.6, 54.2
2	02 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-12.8, 54.4
3	03 Mar 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	-14.1, 54.2	Madagascar
4	03 Mar 2018 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.1 million people	-14.9, 53.4	Madagascar
5	03 Mar 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	3.9 million people	-15.3, 52.4	Madagascar
6	03 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	8.4 million people	-16, 52.1	Madagascar
6	04 Mar 2018 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	13.8 million people	-17.6, 51.3	Madagascar
6	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	15 million people	-19.3, 51	Madagascar
6	05 Mar 2018 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	13.3 million people	-21.1, 51.2	Madagascar
6	05 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	6.1 million people	-22.9, 51.8	Madagascar
6	06 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 2	176	no people	840000 people	-26.1, 54.1	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
6	07 Mar 2018 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-29.1, 56.8
6	08 Mar 2018 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-33.1, 60.6

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Andrangazaha, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 04 Mar 2018 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (124 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 03 Mar 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.3
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Mar 2018 23:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 11:00	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Mar 2018 23:00	Manambondro	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Mar 2018 23:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 22:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 01:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Mar 2018 01:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 19:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.2
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Mar 2018 21:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 12:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 00:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 23:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 11:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 23:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 18:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 11:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 01:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 21:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 23:00	Esama	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 21:00	Ankaramanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 09:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 12:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 12:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 15:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 18:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 20:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 21:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 12:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 04:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 19:00	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 20:00	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 02:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 12:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 11:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 20:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 00:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 08:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 17:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 21:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Mar 2018 13:00	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 03:00	Ambinanysahavary	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Ambodihariha	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Antetezambaro	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 11:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 04:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 04:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Mar 2018 00:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 21:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	04 Mar 2018 05:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.