Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LUCAS-21 in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands from 31 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC to 06:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LUCAS-21

in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

31 Jan 2021 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUCAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	120 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (03 Feb 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (New Caledonia)
Landfall	between 02 Feb 2021 06:00 - 03 Feb 2021 06:00 in New Caledonia

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	157 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	120 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

157 km/h Current Max.

Up to 11000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	139	300 thousand	Few people	New Caledonia
	2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	157	510 thousand	10 thousand	New Caledonia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.9, 152.3
2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.9, 153.2
2	31 Jan 2021 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	2500 people	-14, 156
2	01 Feb 2021 06:00	Category 1	148	no people	2600 people	-14.8, 159.4
2	01 Feb 2021 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	240000 people	-16.2, 162.7
2	02 Feb 2021 06:00	Category 1	139	11000 people	500000 people	-18, 165.3
2	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	290000 people	-21.3, 167.4	New Caledonia
2	04 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	200000 people	-23.3, 167.5
2	05 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-25.1, 165.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
New Caledonia

Provinces

Region Province	Country
New Caledonia	New Caledonia

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Wanaham	LIF	28	Civ.	Paved	No	3600

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
We		New Caledonia

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Gadji, New Caledonia. This height is estimated for 03 Feb 2021 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (118 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 31 Jan 2021 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Feb 2021 23:00	Gadji	New Caledonia	0.5
	03 Feb 2021 23:00	Wapan	New Caledonia	0.5
	03 Feb 2021 23:00	Kuto	New Caledonia	0.4
	03 Feb 2021 01:00	Wegnec St-Joseph	New Caledonia	0.4
	03 Feb 2021 01:00	Teouta	New Caledonia	0.4
	03 Feb 2021 23:00	Vao	New Caledonia	0.4
	03 Feb 2021 17:00	Plum	New Caledonia	0.4
	03 Feb 2021 01:00	Ognat	New Caledonia	0.3
	31 Jan 2021 11:00	Losuia	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Saint-Louis	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Chepenehe	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 14:00	Prony	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 19:00	Yate-Village	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 15:00	Bouloupari	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Tomo	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Hunete	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Doueoulou	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Comm. du Mont-Dore	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Wadrilla	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Doking	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Nang	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 19:00	Ouara	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 17:00	Noumea	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 05:00	Inagod	New Caledonia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 11:00	Kaduaga	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Goro	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 17:00	Nouville	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Nathalo	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Dosip	New Caledonia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Madaua	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 13:00	Hekampan	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Tingeting	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 05:00	Xode	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 05:00	Mou	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 17:00	Nde	New Caledonia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Pantava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 13:00	Tagula	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Fayaoue	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Ognahu	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Paita	New Caledonia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Rewe	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Auneri	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 13:00	Te Kowai	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 13:00	Hay Point	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 13:00	Taffy Islet	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 11:00	Griffin Point	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Lekia	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Miramas	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Gadaisu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Bona Bona I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Lawes College	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 13:00	Midgeton	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 13:00	Carmila	Australia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Mouly	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 18:00	Dumbea	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 10:00	Nece	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 07:00	Tawainedre	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Eni	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 11:00	Lahimoina	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 11:00	Leileiafa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Sui	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Mibu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 13:00	Banana Pocket	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 13:00	Lethebrook	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Donuwo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Apeawa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Tovai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:00	Etowri	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:00	Nindaroo	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:00	Bucasia	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:00	Eimeo	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:00	Andergrove	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:00	Blacks Beach	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	Slade Point	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	Amhurst	Australia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Havila	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	We	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 14:00	Waho	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 09:00	Tadine	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Mamie	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 11:00	Bedauna	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 11:00	Pihigole	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 06:00	Arama	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 09:00	Kurine	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	Glenella	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	North Mackay	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	Mackay	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	Cremorne	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:00	Rosella	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 15:00	Chelona	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	Bakers Creek	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	Alligator Creek	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	Flaggy Rock	Australia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 14:00	Elalie	Australia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 07:00	Ro	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 07:00	Thogone	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Menaku	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Hnadid	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 11:00	Wabao	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 11:00	Medu	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Gogsiba	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Kasabanalua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Sidudu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Magesina	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Samarai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Sideia I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Ture Ture	Papua New Guinea	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.