Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for NESTOR-19 in United States from 17 Oct 2019 15:00 UTC to 19 Oct 2019 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NESTOR-19

in United States

18 Oct 2019 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NESTOR-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	94 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (18 Oct 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	94 km/h	0.3 m	311 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	777 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 680 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	United States	675,908

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	17 Oct 2019 00:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
2	17 Oct 2019 12:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States
3	18 Oct 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	18 Oct 2019 12:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	United States	911,630
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico, Guatemala	15,505,362	+
	United States	14,054,060
	Mexico	1,429,489
	Guatemala	21,813

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	17 Oct 2019 00:00	601	690 thousand			-	-	-	Mexico
2	17 Oct 2019 12:00	241	-	-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
3	18 Oct 2019 00:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
4	18 Oct 2019 12:00	340	910 thousand		-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico, Guatemala

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Mina de Oro, Mexico. This height is estimated for 18 Oct 2019 22:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Oct 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Oct 2019 22:30	Mina de Oro	Mexico	0.3
	18 Oct 2019 22:30	Cerrito	Mexico	0.3
	18 Oct 2019 22:15	Chisahcab	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	West Point	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Breton	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 22:30	Chabihau	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Galveston	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Port Bolivar	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Fort Travis	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Flake	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Elmgrove	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Crystal Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Patton	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Bolivar Peninsula	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Caplen	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Gilchrist	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	High Island	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 22:00	Santo Domingo	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 22:45	Telchac Puerto	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Bryan Beach	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Freeport	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Quintana	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Surfside	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Surfside Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Mims	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Hoskins	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Port Morris	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Red Fish Cove	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Bay Harbor	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Sea Isle	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Hitchcock	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Jamaica Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Texas City Junction	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Bayou Vista	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Anderson Ways	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Virginia Point	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 22:30	Pixoy	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 22:00	Rio Lagartos	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Chinquapin	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Gulf Park	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Hoskins	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Valasco Heights	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Matagorda	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Johnson's Bayou	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Constance Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 12:00	Peveto Beach	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Port O'Connor	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 22:30	El Cuyo	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 22:00	Chelem	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 22:00	Progreso	Mexico	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Dauphin Island	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Heron Bay	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Alabama Port	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Fort Gaines	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Fort Morgan	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 22:45	Sisal	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Gulf Highlands	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Cedar Grove	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Gasque	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Lamar	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 21:45	Chipepte	Mexico	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Mustang Beach	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Port Aransas	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Rockport	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Shell Ridge	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Copano Village	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Fulton	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	El Martillo	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Yarborough	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Buena Vista	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Oyster Bay	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Bon Secaur	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Oak	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Gulf Shores	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Caruthers Cove Colonia	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Ingleside	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Kenney Lane West Colonia	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Port Ingleside	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Indian Trails Lane Colonia	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Country Estates Colonia	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Holly Beach	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Laguna Vista	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Laguna Heights	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Port Isabel	United States	0.2
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	South Padre Island	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Flour Bluff	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Kopernik Shores	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Boca Chica	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Aransas Pass	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Estes	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Peary Place	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Eastpoint	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Romar Beach	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Miffin	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Orange Beach	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Caswell	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Joesphine	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Perdido Beach	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Port Mansfield	United States	0.2
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Guanimar	Cuba	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	El Cajio	Cuba	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Chaparral	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 23:30	Majana	Cuba	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	El Mezquital	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Caserio Pescadores	Cuba	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Playa Caimito	Cuba	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Playa de Tasajera	Cuba	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Yent Place	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Carrabelle	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Lanark Village	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Los Ebanos	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Gulf Beach Heights	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 23:30	El Porvenir	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 18:30	Port Fourchon	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 23:30	San Jose de los Leones	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Gulf Beach	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Perdido Bay	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Chanticleer	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	McNeils	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Indian Pass	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Sherman Grove	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Quinavista	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Pleasant Grove	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Fort McRee	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Thirteen Mile	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Odena	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Eleven Mile	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Nine Mile	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Las Guayabas	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 22:15	Aguas Claras	Cuba	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 22:15	Almacen	Cuba	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 22:15	Guasimal	Cuba	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:00	Cheniere Caminada	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:00	Grand Isle	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Paradise Beach	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Haven Park	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Ramsey Beach	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Sand Cut	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Cerny Heights	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Bellview	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Myrtle Grove	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Fort Barrancas	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Warrington	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	West Pensacola	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Sanders Beach	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Pensacola	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Goulding	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Gulf Breeze	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Gaberonne	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Gulf Beach	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Villa Sabine	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	La Pesca	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 13:15	Guerrero	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 13:15	Real de Salinas	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Killian	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 23:45	Lillian	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Sun N Sand Beaches	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 14:00	Celestum	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	San Juan	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	Cocoli	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	Buena Vista	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	Livingston	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	Macho Creek	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	Punta Manabique	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	Puerto Barrios	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	Cambalache	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	Corozo	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	Cabeza de Vaca	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	Baranca	Belize	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 19:45	Cattle Landing	Belize	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 14:30	Melbourne Beach	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 14:30	Indialantic	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 14:30	Valkaria	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 14:30	Grant	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 14:30	Melbourne Shores	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 14:30	Evans Pines	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 14:30	Ballard Pines	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 14:30	Cummings	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 14:30	Orchid	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 23:00	Rancho Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Oriole Beach	United States	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Tiger Point	United States	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 20:45	Puerto Santo Tomas de Castilla	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 20:45	Piedra Parada	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 20:45	Corozo	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 20:45	La Graciosa	Guatemala	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 20:45	Machacal	Guatemala	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Tepeguahe	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	Los Pericos	Mexico	0.1
	18 Oct 2019 23:00	Rancho de Piedra	Mexico	0.1
	19 Oct 2019 00:00	La Presita	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.