Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2018-000152-CHN
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (11 Sep 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 213 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 287 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

213 km/h Current Max.

Up to 160000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.4, 161
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 13.7, 157.9
GREEN
4 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 13.8, 154.6
GREEN
4 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 185 no people 210000 people 13.6, 151.6 Guam
RED
4 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 213 160000 people 210000 people 13.4, 146.3 Guam
GREEN
4 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 231 no people 160000 people 14.1, 142.1 Guam
GREEN
4 12 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 15.9, 138.1
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Guam

Provinces

Region Province Country
Guam Guam

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Rota Northern Mariana Islands
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam
Apra Harbor Guam

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Harmon Village, Guam. This height is estimated for 11 Sep 2018 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (36 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 07 Sep 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.7
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Oceanview Guam  0.7
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Dededo Guam  0.7
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Asan Guam  0.5
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Hagatna Guam  0.5
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Mongmong Guam  0.5
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tamuning Guam  0.5
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Sinajana Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Piti Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Agat Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.4
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Upi Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.3
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Umatac Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Merizo Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 02:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Inarajan Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Yona Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Talofofo Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Ylig Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Barrigada Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 04:00 Asbeco Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Adacao Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 03:00 South Acres Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
11 Sep 2018 03:00 Ipapao Guam  0.1
11 Sep 2018 01:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.1