Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Glide number: TC-2018-000168-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 190 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1 m (23 Oct 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 250 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5
GDACS Overall 250 km/h 1.0 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

250 km/h Current

Up to 870000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Oct 2018 09:00 185 Few people No people Mexico
Green 2 20 Oct 2018 15:00 185 7 thousand No people Mexico
Orange 3 20 Oct 2018 21:00 148 3.3 million 140 thousand Mexico
Orange 4 21 Oct 2018 03:00 167 3 million 190 thousand Mexico
Orange 5 21 Oct 2018 09:00 167 5.6 million 900 thousand Mexico
Red 6 21 Oct 2018 15:00 204 4.6 million 920 thousand Mexico
Red 7 21 Oct 2018 21:00 204 5.8 million 340 thousand Mexico
Red 8 22 Oct 2018 03:00 185 4.5 million 510 thousand Mexico
Red 9 22 Oct 2018 09:00 213 10.3 million 140 thousand Mexico
Red 10 22 Oct 2018 15:00 250 4.5 million 870 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, -104.9
GREEN
2 20 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.8, -105.7
GREEN
3 20 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.2, -105.8
GREEN
4 21 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 15.7, -106.1
GREEN
5 21 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.2, -106.5
GREEN
6 21 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 16.6, -106.7
GREEN
7 21 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 17, -107
GREEN
8 22 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 17.7, -107.2
GREEN
9 22 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 18.2, -107.1
GREEN
10 22 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 5 259 11000 people no people 19.1, -107.2 Mexico
GREEN
10 23 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 5 259 420000 people 6200 people 20.1, -107.2 Mexico
RED
10 23 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 4 250 2.6 million people 130000 people 21.4, -106.9 Mexico
ORANGE
10 24 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 2 167 3.7 million people 830000 people 23.1, -105.6 Mexico
GREEN
10 24 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 25.4, -102.5 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people
Zacatecas Mexico 1.3 million people
Durango Mexico 1.4 million people
Coahuila Mexico 2.1 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people 436 km
Durango Durango Mexico Major city 440000 people 605 km
Miguel Auza Durango Mexico City 12000 people 692 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Isla Maria Madre 5 0 290 km
Teacapan 6 0 412 km
Rancho los Cabras 3 0 428 km
Guadalupe Victoria DGO 1857 Civ. Paved Yes 9500 621 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Presa Guadalupe Victoria Tunal 1962 595 km
G. Franci Poanas 1968 638 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.0m in La Puerta, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2018 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 22 Oct 2018 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Oct 2018 21:00 La Puerta Mexico  1.0
23 Oct 2018 21:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.9
23 Oct 2018 21:00 Novillero Mexico  0.7
23 Oct 2018 21:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.7
23 Oct 2018 20:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.7
23 Oct 2018 21:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.6
23 Oct 2018 20:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.5
23 Oct 2018 20:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.5
23 Oct 2018 20:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.4
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
23 Oct 2018 19:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 20:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 21:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 23:00 Barron Mexico  0.1