Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Glide number: TC-2018-000168-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 190 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (24 Oct 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 37 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 250 km/h 0.9 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

37 km/h Current

Up to 3.1 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Oct 2018 09:00 185 Few people No people Mexico
Green 2 20 Oct 2018 15:00 185 7 thousand No people Mexico
Orange 3 20 Oct 2018 21:00 148 3.3 million 140 thousand Mexico
Orange 4 21 Oct 2018 03:00 167 3 million 190 thousand Mexico
Orange 5 21 Oct 2018 09:00 167 5.6 million 900 thousand Mexico
Red 6 21 Oct 2018 15:00 204 4.6 million 920 thousand Mexico
Red 7 21 Oct 2018 21:00 204 5.8 million 340 thousand Mexico
Red 8 22 Oct 2018 03:00 185 4.5 million 510 thousand Mexico
Red 9 22 Oct 2018 09:00 213 10.3 million 140 thousand Mexico
Red 10 22 Oct 2018 15:00 250 4.5 million 870 thousand Mexico
Red 11 22 Oct 2018 21:00 204 4.9 million 800 thousand Mexico
Red 12 23 Oct 2018 03:00 213 3.2 million 900 thousand Mexico
Red 13 23 Oct 2018 09:00 185 4.5 million 200 thousand Mexico
Red 14 23 Oct 2018 15:00 204 7.2 million 910 thousand Mexico
Red 15 23 Oct 2018 21:00 194 4.1 million 160 thousand Mexico
Red 16 24 Oct 2018 03:00 185 3.3 million 940 thousand Mexico
Green 17 24 Oct 2018 09:00 56 3.2 million 870 thousand Mexico
Green 18 24 Oct 2018 12:00 37 3.2 million 190 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, -104.5
GREEN
2 20 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.7, -105.4
GREEN
3 20 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.1, -105.5
GREEN
4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 15.5, -105.9
GREEN
5 21 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16, -106.3
GREEN
6 21 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 16.4, -106.6
GREEN
7 21 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 2 176 no people no people 16.8, -106.9
GREEN
8 22 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 17.5, -107.1
GREEN
9 22 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 17.9, -107.1
GREEN
10 22 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 5 259 11000 people no people 18.7, -107.2 Mexico
GREEN
11 22 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 450000 people no people 19.4, -107.2 Mexico
GREEN
12 23 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 1.3 million people 6200 people 20.2, -107.3 Mexico
GREEN
13 23 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 222 1.9 million people 6200 people 20.6, -107.3 Mexico
RED
14 23 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 3 204 2 million people 140000 people 21.1, -107.1 Mexico
RED
15 23 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 194 2.5 million people 170000 people 21.7, -106.7 Mexico
RED
16 24 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 3 194 2.7 million people 870000 people 22.6, -106 Mexico
GREEN
17 24 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 6.4 million people no people 23.8, -104.6 Mexico
GREEN
18 24 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 25, -102.7 Mexico
GREEN
18 25 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 27.6, -98.4 United States
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Durango Mexico 1.4 million people
Coahuila Mexico 2.1 million people
Zacatecas Mexico 1.3 million people
Jalisco Mexico 5.7 million people
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Juan Aldama Zacatecas Mexico City 13000 people 105 km
Miguel Auza Durango Mexico City 12000 people 114 km
Sombrerete Zacatecas Mexico City 18000 people 178 km
Ialchihuites Zacatecas Mexico City - 206 km
Durango Durango Mexico Major city 440000 people 227 km
Acaponeta Nayarit Mexico City 18000 people 388 km
Tecuala Nayarit Mexico City 14000 people 403 km
Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people 404 km
Villa Unión Sinaloa Mexico City 13000 people 410 km
Mazatlan Sinaloa Mexico Major city 330000 people 427 km
Tuxpan Nayarit Mexico City 22000 people 430 km
Santiago Ixcuintla Nayarit Mexico City - 436 km
Tepic Nayarit Mexico Major city 270000 people 447 km
Compostela Nayarit Mexico City 15000 people 475 km
Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City - 543 km
Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 180000 people 546 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Sombrerete 2345 0 175 km
Guadalupe Victoria DGO 1857 Civ. Paved Yes 9500 209 km
Rancho El Durangueno 2500 0 230 km
La Candelaria del Alto 1940 0 283 km
Acaponeta 84 0 393 km
Rancho los Cabras 3 0 407 km
Teacapan 6 0 410 km
General Rafael Buelna International MZT 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800 416 km
Tepic TPQ 960 Civ. Paved Yes 7500 453 km
San Blas 3 0 465 km
El Llano 12 0 506 km
Isla Maria Madre 5 0 541 km
Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International PVR 6 Civ. Paved Yes 10100 545 km
La Gloria 34 0 622 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Mazatlan MXMZT Mexico 429 km
San Blas MXSBS Mexico 466 km
Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico 552 km
Ipala Mexico 606 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
G. Franci Poanas 1968 169 km
Presa Pena del Aguila LaSauceda 1955 217 km
Presa Guadalupe Victoria Tunal 1962 238 km
Agua Milpa Agua Milpa Santiago 1994 411 km
El Salto Elota 1985 415 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Isla de Palmito del Verde, Mexico. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 24 Oct 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.9
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Novillero Mexico  0.8
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.8
24 Oct 2018 01:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.7
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.7
23 Oct 2018 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.5
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.5
23 Oct 2018 23:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.5
23 Oct 2018 23:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.4
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
23 Oct 2018 23:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 01:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 02:00 Barron Mexico  0.1