Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Glide number: TC-2018-000168-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 190 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (24 Oct 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 37 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 250 km/h 0.9 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

37 km/h Current

Up to 3.1 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 20 Oct 2018 09:00 185 Few people No people Mexico
Green 2 20 Oct 2018 15:00 185 7 thousand No people Mexico
Orange 3 20 Oct 2018 21:00 148 3.3 million 140 thousand Mexico
Orange 4 21 Oct 2018 03:00 167 3 million 190 thousand Mexico
Orange 5 21 Oct 2018 09:00 167 5.6 million 900 thousand Mexico
Red 6 21 Oct 2018 15:00 204 4.6 million 920 thousand Mexico
Red 7 21 Oct 2018 21:00 204 5.8 million 340 thousand Mexico
Red 8 22 Oct 2018 03:00 185 4.5 million 510 thousand Mexico
Red 9 22 Oct 2018 09:00 213 10.3 million 140 thousand Mexico
Red 10 22 Oct 2018 15:00 250 4.5 million 870 thousand Mexico
Red 11 22 Oct 2018 21:00 204 4.9 million 800 thousand Mexico
Red 12 23 Oct 2018 03:00 213 3.2 million 900 thousand Mexico
Red 13 23 Oct 2018 09:00 185 4.5 million 200 thousand Mexico
Red 14 23 Oct 2018 15:00 204 7.2 million 910 thousand Mexico
Red 15 23 Oct 2018 21:00 194 4.1 million 160 thousand Mexico
Red 16 24 Oct 2018 03:00 185 3.3 million 940 thousand Mexico
Green 17 24 Oct 2018 09:00 56 3.2 million 870 thousand Mexico
Green 18 24 Oct 2018 12:00 37 3.2 million 190 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 20 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, -104.5
GREEN
2 20 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.7, -105.4
GREEN
3 20 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 15.1, -105.5
GREEN
4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 15.5, -105.9
GREEN
5 21 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16, -106.3
GREEN
6 21 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 16.4, -106.6
GREEN
7 21 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 2 176 no people no people 16.8, -106.9
GREEN
8 22 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 17.5, -107.1
GREEN
9 22 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 17.9, -107.1
GREEN
10 22 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 5 259 11000 people no people 18.7, -107.2 Mexico
GREEN
11 22 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 450000 people no people 19.4, -107.2 Mexico
GREEN
12 23 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 1.3 million people 6200 people 20.2, -107.3 Mexico
GREEN
13 23 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 222 1.9 million people 6200 people 20.6, -107.3 Mexico
RED
14 23 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 3 204 2 million people 140000 people 21.1, -107.1 Mexico
RED
15 23 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 194 2.5 million people 170000 people 21.7, -106.7 Mexico
RED
16 24 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 3 194 2.7 million people 870000 people 22.6, -106 Mexico
GREEN
17 24 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 6.4 million people no people 23.8, -104.6 Mexico
GREEN
18 24 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 25, -102.7 Mexico
GREEN
18 25 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 27.6, -98.4 United States
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Durango Mexico 1.4 million people
Coahuila Mexico 2.1 million people
Zacatecas Mexico 1.3 million people
Jalisco Mexico 5.7 million people
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Juan Aldama Zacatecas Mexico City 13000 people
Miguel Auza Durango Mexico City 12000 people
Sombrerete Zacatecas Mexico City 18000 people
Ialchihuites Zacatecas Mexico City -
Durango Durango Mexico Major city 440000 people
Acaponeta Nayarit Mexico City 18000 people
Tecuala Nayarit Mexico City 14000 people
Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people
Villa Unión Sinaloa Mexico City 13000 people
Mazatlan Sinaloa Mexico Major city 330000 people
Tuxpan Nayarit Mexico City 22000 people
Santiago Ixcuintla Nayarit Mexico City -
Tepic Nayarit Mexico Major city 270000 people
Compostela Nayarit Mexico City 15000 people
Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -
Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 180000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Sombrerete 2345 0
Guadalupe Victoria DGO 1857 Civ. Paved Yes 9500
Rancho El Durangueno 2500 0
La Candelaria del Alto 1940 0
Acaponeta 84 0
Rancho los Cabras 3 0
Teacapan 6 0
General Rafael Buelna International MZT 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
Tepic TPQ 960 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
San Blas 3 0
El Llano 12 0
Isla Maria Madre 5 0
Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International PVR 6 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
La Gloria 34 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Mazatlan MXMZT Mexico
San Blas MXSBS Mexico
Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico
Ipala Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
G. Franci Poanas 1968
Presa Pena del Aguila LaSauceda 1955
Presa Guadalupe Victoria Tunal 1962
Agua Milpa Agua Milpa Santiago 1994
El Salto Elota 1985

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.9m in Isla de Palmito del Verde, Mexico. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 24 Oct 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.9
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Novillero Mexico  0.8
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.8
24 Oct 2018 01:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.7
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.7
23 Oct 2018 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.5
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.5
23 Oct 2018 23:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.5
23 Oct 2018 23:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.4
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
23 Oct 2018 23:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 01:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 02:00 Barron Mexico  0.1