Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico
20 Oct 2018 21 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2018-000168-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 190 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (24 Oct 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 148 km/h 1.1 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 250 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 140000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher		 Population in
Cat 1. or higher		 Countries
Green 1 20 Oct 2018 09:00 185 Few people No people Mexico
Green 2 20 Oct 2018 15:00 185 7 thousand No people Mexico
Orange 3 20 Oct 2018 21:00 148 3.3 million 140 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 20 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, -104.9
GREEN
 2 20 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.8, -105.7
GREEN
 3 20 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.2, -105.8
GREEN
 3 21 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.5, -106.3
GREEN
 3 21 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 16.1, -106.9
GREEN
 3 22 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 16.8, -107.4
GREEN
 3 22 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 17.6, -107.8
GREEN
 3 23 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 185 2 million people 6200 people 19.1, -108.1 Mexico
ORANGE
 3 24 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 3.3 million people 130000 people 22, -106.5 Mexico
GREEN
 3 25 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 24.5, -103.5 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Nayarit Mexico 890000 people
Zacatecas Mexico 1.3 million people
Durango Mexico 1.4 million people
Sinaloa Mexico 2.3 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Miguel Auza Durango Mexico City 12000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Isla Maria Madre 5 0
Teacapan 6 0
Rancho los Cabras 3 0

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
G. Franci Poanas 1968
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in La Puerta, Mexico. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (14 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 24 Oct 2018 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2018 00:00 La Puerta Mexico  1.1
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  1.0
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.8
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Novillero Mexico  0.7
24 Oct 2018 01:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.7
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.6
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.6
23 Oct 2018 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.5
23 Oct 2018 23:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.5
23 Oct 2018 23:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.4
23 Oct 2018 23:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 01:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 02:00 Barron Mexico  0.1