Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for IDAI-19 in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 09 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC to 12 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19

in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2019-000021-MOZ
Exposed countries	Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population	1.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	194 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.9 m (14 Mar 21:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	213 km/h	1.9 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	194 km/h	1.9 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

213 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	09 Mar 2019 06:00	213	6.6 million	870 thousand	Mozambique
2	09 Mar 2019 12:00	213	5.6 million	550 thousand	Mozambique
3	09 Mar 2019 18:00	204	2.9 million	250 thousand	Mozambique
4	10 Mar 2019 00:00	204	4.3 million	340 thousand	Mozambique
5	10 Mar 2019 06:00	213	4.1 million	1.3 million	Mozambique
6	10 Mar 2019 12:00	213	4.7 million	1.1 million	Mozambique
7	10 Mar 2019 18:00	222	5.2 million	440 thousand	Mozambique
8	11 Mar 2019 00:00	213	3 million	660 thousand	Mozambique
9	11 Mar 2019 06:00	213	8.1 million	580 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
10	11 Mar 2019 12:00	194	5.3 million	1.1 million	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique
11	11 Mar 2019 18:00	194	5.9 million	960 thousand	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe
12	12 Mar 2019 00:00	213	6.9 million	1.9 million	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Mozambique, Zimbabwe

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	09 Mar 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	110000 people	-17, 40.2	Mozambique
2	09 Mar 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-17, 41.3	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	09 Mar 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1200 people	-16.9, 42	Madagascar
4	10 Mar 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	100000 people	-17.2, 42.4	Madagascar
5	10 Mar 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	69000 people	-17.4, 42.6	Madagascar
6	10 Mar 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	220000 people	-17.2, 43	Madagascar
7	10 Mar 2019 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	310000 people	-17.2, 43.2	Madagascar
8	11 Mar 2019 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	200000 people	-17.3, 43.2	Madagascar
9	11 Mar 2019 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	180000 people	-17.3, 43	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
10	11 Mar 2019 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	100000 people	-17.6, 42.6	Madagascar
11	11 Mar 2019 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	120000 people	-17.7, 42.5	Madagascar
12	12 Mar 2019 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	49000 people	-18, 42.2	Madagascar
12	12 Mar 2019 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	-18.7, 41.4
12	13 Mar 2019 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	-19.3, 40.2
12	13 Mar 2019 12:00	Category 4	213	no people	730000 people	-19.6, 38.9	Mozambique
12	14 Mar 2019 00:00	Category 4	213	710000 people	4.1 million people	-19.8, 37.6	Mozambique
12	15 Mar 2019 00:00	Category 3	194	1.5 million people	5.2 million people	-19.3, 35.2	Mozambique
12	16 Mar 2019 00:00	Category 1	130	540000 people	3.4 million people	-18.3, 33.3	Mozambique
12	17 Mar 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-17.4, 32.2	Mozambique

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Juan De Nova I.
Mozambique
Zimbabwe

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Juan De Nova I.	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Zambezia	Mozambique
Sofala	Mozambique
Manica	Mozambique
Manicaland	Zimbabwe
Mashonaland East	Zimbabwe

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Beira	Sofala	Mozambique	Major city	520000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Beira	BEW	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7800
Mutoko		1189	Mil.	Paved	No	3600

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Beira	MZBEW	Mozambique

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Bue Maria	Pungoe	n/a

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.9m in Bingue, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 21:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (132 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 12 Mar 2019 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	14 Mar 2019 21:00	Bingue	Mozambique	1.9
	14 Mar 2019 21:00	Jonja	Mozambique	1.9
	14 Mar 2019 21:00	Tama	Mozambique	1.8
	14 Mar 2019 21:00	Rupia	Mozambique	1.7
	14 Mar 2019 23:00	Damiao	Mozambique	1.6
	14 Mar 2019 23:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	1.6
	14 Mar 2019 23:00	Chamba	Mozambique	1.6
	14 Mar 2019 23:00	Beira	Mozambique	1.6
	14 Mar 2019 22:00	Panaca	Mozambique	1.6
	14 Mar 2019 22:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	1.6
	14 Mar 2019 20:00	Machesse	Mozambique	1.5
	15 Mar 2019 00:00	Manica	Mozambique	1.4
	14 Mar 2019 23:00	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	1.2
	14 Mar 2019 12:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.8
	14 Mar 2019 12:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.8
	15 Mar 2019 00:00	Chiloane	Mozambique	0.7
	14 Mar 2019 12:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.6
	11 Mar 2019 07:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.4
	11 Mar 2019 07:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.4
	11 Mar 2019 07:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.4
	11 Mar 2019 00:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2019 00:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2019 07:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2019 07:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2019 07:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.3
	11 Mar 2019 07:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Mar 2019 09:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.3
	10 Mar 2019 00:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Mar 2019 12:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.3
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.3
	11 Mar 2019 08:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Mar 2019 07:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Metapa	Mozambique	0.3
	10 Mar 2019 00:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Mar 2019 00:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.3
	09 Mar 2019 09:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.3
	12 Mar 2019 01:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.3
	12 Mar 2019 01:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.3
	14 Mar 2019 23:00	Bartolomeu Dias	Mozambique	0.3
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 19:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.2
	12 Mar 2019 01:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Mar 2019 02:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2019 00:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.2
	12 Mar 2019 00:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Mar 2019 00:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 22:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 22:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 22:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 22:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 22:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 22:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2019 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 22:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 22:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 17:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Mar 2019 22:00	Jo	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 08:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 19:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 18:00	Morrua	Mozambique	0.2
	12 Mar 2019 02:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Pebane	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 17:00	Chululu	Mozambique	0.2
	12 Mar 2019 02:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	14 Mar 2019 23:00	Dinguiduane	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 19:00	Caramaca	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 19:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 19:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Mar 2019 00:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 08:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	15 Mar 2019 00:00	Laisse	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 10:00	Murrumuana	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 10:00	Moebase	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 08:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 08:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 08:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2019 01:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Mar 2019 01:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Mar 2019 01:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Mar 2019 00:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Carramali	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 10:00	Mutadua	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 10:00	Napito	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 10:00	Namorre	Mozambique	0.2
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 10:00	Natiquinde	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 08:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 10:00	Larde	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 10:00	Mocareja	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 10:00	Coropoa	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 08:00	Bajone	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Mar 2019 00:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Mar 2019 00:00	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Mar 2019 03:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 21:00	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Mar 2019 20:00	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.