Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19
in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population 54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 278 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.3 m (12 Oct 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 194 km/h 1.3 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 278 km/h 1.3 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

194 km/h Current

Up to 44.8 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands
Green 2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 241 200 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 241 50 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 241 140 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 148 220 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 148 1.6 million 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
Green 7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 250 800 thousand No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 259 6 million No people Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
Green 9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 278 63.7 million 20 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 204 101 million 8.9 million Japan
Orange 11 07 Oct 2019 18:00 194 101.5 million 36.8 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Green 12 08 Oct 2019 00:00 269 104.5 million 44.6 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Green 13 08 Oct 2019 06:00 259 111.6 million 49 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 14 08 Oct 2019 12:00 194 112.1 million 51.1 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 15 08 Oct 2019 18:00 194 114 million 49.3 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan
Orange 16 09 Oct 2019 00:00 194 112.3 million 44.8 million Northern Mariana Islands, Japan

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 05 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 15.3, 161.1
GREEN
2 05 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 15.1, 159.2
GREEN
3 05 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 15.3, 157.8
GREEN
4 06 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.9, 155.8
GREEN
5 06 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.2, 154.1
GREEN
6 06 Oct 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 14.5, 152.4
GREEN
7 06 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 53000 people no people 14.9, 151.1 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
8 07 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 15.1, 149.5 Guam
GREEN
9 07 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 241 210000 people <1000 people 15.5, 148.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
10 07 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 259 210000 people no people 16.1, 146.7 Guam
GREEN
11 07 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 5 259 210000 people no people 16.5, 145 Guam
GREEN
12 08 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 250 210000 people no people 16.9, 143.7 Guam
GREEN
13 08 Oct 2019 06:00 Category 4 250 52000 people no people 17.7, 142.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
14 08 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 250 <1000 people no people 18.5, 141.8
GREEN
15 08 Oct 2019 18:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people no people 19.2, 140.8
GREEN
16 09 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people no people 19.8, 140.3
GREEN
16 09 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 5 259 <1000 people no people 21.3, 139.4
GREEN
16 10 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 250 1000 people no people 23, 138.6
GREEN
16 10 Oct 2019 12:00 Category 4 241 4300 people no people 24.9, 137.6
GREEN
16 11 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 4 231 57.7 million people no people 27, 136.5 Japan
ORANGE
16 12 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 3 194 109.5 million people 44.8 million people 31.5, 136.4 Japan
GREEN
16 13 Oct 2019 00:00 Category 1 148 59.5 million people no people 38.4, 143.3 Russian Federation
GREEN
16 14 Oct 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 48, 160.1
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Japan

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people
Chubu Japan 5.1 million people
Kanto Japan 38.5 million people
Tohoku Japan 9.9 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Mitsune Shizuoka Japan City -
Matsuzaki Shizuoka Japan City -
Arai Shizuoka Japan City -
Hamamatsu Shizuoka Japan City 590000 people
Kakeoawa Shizuoka Japan City -
Shimada Shizuoka Japan City 75000 people
Chikura Chiba Japan City -
Yaizu Shizuoka Japan City 110000 people
Fujieda Shizuoka Japan City 130000 people
Tateyama Chiba Japan City 49000 people
Ito Shizuoka Japan City 71000 people
Shizuoka Shizuoka Japan Major city 700000 people
Atami Shizuoka Japan City 40000 people
Numazu Shizuoka Japan City 200000 people
Mishima Shizuoka Japan City 110000 people
Yoshiwara Shizuoka Japan City -
Ohara Chiba Japan City 19000 people
Yokosuka Kanagawa Japan City 420000 people
Odawara Kanagawa Japan City 190000 people
Fujinomiya Shizuoka Japan City 110000 people
Kamakura Kanagawa Japan City 160000 people
Fujisawa Kanagawa Japan City 390000 people
Hiratsuka Kanagawa Japan City 250000 people
Chigasaki Kanagawa Japan City 230000 people
Kisarazu Chiba Japan City 120000 people
Isehara Kanagawa Japan City 100000 people
Mobara Chiba Japan City 95000 people
Atsugi Kanagawa Japan City 220000 people
Yokohama Kanagawa Japan Major city 3.5 million people
Katakai Chiba Japan City -
Kawasaki Kanagawa Japan Major city 1.2 million people
Fuji-yoshida Yamanashi Japan City -
Chiba Chiba Japan Major city 910000 people
Naruto Chiba Japan City 22000 people
Aoyagi Yamanashi Japan City -
Chofu Tokyo Japan City 200000 people
Tokyo Tokyo Japan Capital 8.1 million people
Hachioji Tokyo Japan City 530000 people
Funabashi Chiba Japan City 560000 people
Sakura Chiba Japan City 180000 people
Kofu Yamanashi Japan Major city 200000 people
Ichikawa Chiba Japan City 450000 people
Tachikawa Tokyo Japan City 170000 people
Tako Chiba Japan City -
Narita Chiba Japan City 100000 people
Choshi Chiba Japan City 83000 people
Kodaira Tokyo Japan City 180000 people
Kamagaya Chiba Japan City 100000 people
Enzan Yamanashi Japan City 25000 people
Matsudo Chiba Japan City 460000 people
Omigawa Chiba Japan City 25000 people
Hanno Saitama Japan City 82000 people
Abiko Chiba Japan City 120000 people
Omiya Saitama Japan City 440000 people
Kawagoe Saitama Japan City 330000 people
Noda Chiba Japan City 110000 people
Sakado Saitama Japan City 95000 people
Saitama Saitama Japan Major city 1 million people
Koga Ibaraki Japan City 57000 people
Tsukuba Ibaraki Japan City 170000 people
Kumagaya Saitama Japan City 150000 people
Shimodate Ibaraki Japan City 63000 people
Isezaki Gunma Japan City -
Oyama Tochigi Japan City 140000 people
Mito Ibaraki Japan Major city 240000 people
Ashikaga Tochigi Japan City 150000 people
Kuji Ibaraki Japan City 35000 people
Utsunmiya Tochigi Japan City -
Hitachi Ibaraki Japan City 180000 people
Karasuyama Tochigi Japan City 18000 people
Ueda Fukushima Japan City -
Onahama Fukushima Japan City -
Taira Fukushima Japan City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Nikko 18 0
Hachijo Jima HAC 92 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Miyake Jima MYE 20 Civ. Paved Yes 3900
29 0
Oshima OIM 40 Civ. Paved Yes 3900
Shizuhama 7 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
Hamamatsu 46 Mil. Paved Yes 8300
Tateyama 3 0
Fuji 686 0
Kisarazu 3 Mil. Paved Yes 6000
Atsugi NJA 62 Mil. Paved Yes 7900
Yokohama YOK unknown 0
Nashigahara 1001 0
Katsner AAF 109 Civ. Paved No 1900
Tokyo Haneda International HND 7 Civ. Paved Yes 9800
Shimoshizu 30 0
Chofu 41 Civ. Paved No 3200
Tachikawa 95 0
Tokyo Narita International NRT 42 Civ. Paved Yes 13100
Yokota AFB OKO 139 Mil. Paved Yes 11000
Shimofusa 30 Civ. Paved Yes 7300
Iruma 91 Mil. Paved Yes 6500
Ryugasaki South 2 0
Ryugasaki 2 0
Honda 12 0
Chiba-ken 19 0
26 0
Hyakuri 32 Mil. Paved Yes 8800
Onishi 20 0
Shimo Kolzumi 30 0
Suzumenomiya 82 0
Utsunomiya QUT 102 Civ. Paved Yes 5500
Otawara 201 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Guguan Island Northern Mariana Islands
Farallon de Medinilla Northern Mariana Islands
Yaene Japan
Mikura Japan
Miyake Japan
Kozu Island Japan
Nii Japan
Omaezaki JPOMZ Japan
Shimoda JPSMD Japan
Oshima JPOSM Japan
Hamamatsu JPHMM Japan
Tateyama JPTTY Japan
Shimizu JPSMZ Japan
Katsuura Ko Japan
Numazu JPNUM Japan
Tagonour JPTGO Japan
Kurihama JPKRH Japan
Yokosuka JPYOS Japan
Kisarazu JPKZU Japan
Neghisi JPNGI Japan
Yokohama JPYOK Japan
Goi JPGOI Japan
Kawasaki JPKWS Japan
Chiba JPCHB Japan
Anegasaki JPANE Japan
Katunan Ko Japan
Ogasawara JPOGA Japan
Tokyo JPTYO Japan
Choshi JPCHO Japan
Kashima JPKSM Japan
Hitachi JPHTC Japan
Onahama JPONA Japan

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Matsukawako Okuno Itookawa 1989
Inasako Miyakodagawa Miyakodagawa 1986
Funagiradamuko Funagira Tenryugawa 1977
Sasama Sasamagawa Sasamagawa 1960
Sakuma Sakuma Okuzuregawa 1990
Akibako Akiha Tenryugawa 1958
Kameyamako Kameyama Obitsugawa 1980
Kori Kori Korigawa 1972
Iizumishusuizeki Iizumishusuizeki Sakawagawa 1973
Ikawako Ikawa Oigawa 1957
Takatakiko Takataki Yorogawa 1990
Tenshiko Kakimoto Sanogawa 1952
Hatanagiko Hatanagidaiichi Oigawa 1962
Tanzawako Miho Kawauchigawa 1978
Yamakura Yamakura Yamakuragawa 1964
Amahatako Amahata Amehatagawa 1967
Miyagaseko Miyagase Nakatsugawa 2001
Tsukuiko Shiroyama Sagamigawa 1964
Sagamiko Sagami Sagamigawa 1947
Ono Ono Yatagawa 1914
Tamako Murayamashimo Tamagawa 2008
Tamako Murayamakami Tamagawa 1924
Sayamako Yamaguchi Tamagawa 2002
Okutamako Ogohchi Tamagawa 1957
Miyazawako Miyazawatameike Koazegawa 1941
Naguriko Arima Arimagawa 1985
Kasumigaura Kasumigaura-Kaihatsu Tonegawa 1995
Miyukiko Gongendochosetsuchi Nakagawa 1991
Yanakako Wataraseyusuichi Watarasegawa 1989
Jajanboike Kozogawa Kozogawa 1985
Mizunuma Mizunuma Hanazonokawa 1966
Shitokiko Shitoki Shitokigawa 1983
Takashibako Takashiba Samekawa 1961
Bobatako Sengozawa Kitasugawa 1974
Sakashita Sakashita Okawaragawa 1973
Ogaki Ogaki Ukedogawa 1985
Yokokawa Yokokawa Otagawa 1983

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.7m in Tokyo, Japan. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2019 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (1610 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 31 of 12 Oct 2019 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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