Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for HAGIBIS-19 in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam from 05 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC to 07 Oct 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HAGIBIS-19

in Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HAGIBIS-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Japan, Northern Mariana Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Japan, Guam
Exposed population	54.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	278 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (07 Oct 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Northern Mariana Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	278 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	278 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

278 km/h Current Max.

Up to 16000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	05 Oct 2019 06:00	241	50 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands
2	05 Oct 2019 12:00	241	200 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
3	05 Oct 2019 18:00	241	50 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
4	06 Oct 2019 00:00	241	140 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
5	06 Oct 2019 06:00	148	220 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
6	06 Oct 2019 12:00	148	1.6 million	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
7	06 Oct 2019 18:00	250	800 thousand	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
8	07 Oct 2019 00:00	259	6 million	No people	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Japan
9	07 Oct 2019 06:00	278	63.7 million	20 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Japan

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	05 Oct 2019 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	15.3, 161.1
2	05 Oct 2019 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.1, 159.2
3	05 Oct 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.3, 157.8
4	06 Oct 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.9, 155.8
5	06 Oct 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.2, 154.1
6	06 Oct 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.5, 152.4
7	06 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	53000 people	14.9, 151.1	Northern Mariana Islands
8	07 Oct 2019 00:00	Category 3	185	no people	220000 people	15.1, 149.5	Guam
9	07 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 4	241	<1000 people	220000 people	15.5, 148.2	Northern Mariana Islands
9	07 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 5	269	no people	220000 people	16.4, 145.4	Guam
9	08 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 5	278	no people	53000 people	17.5, 142.8	Northern Mariana Islands
9	08 Oct 2019 18:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	18.6, 140.8
9	09 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 5	259	no people	<1000 people	20, 139.4
9	10 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 4	250	no people	2600 people	23, 137.2
9	11 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 4	222	15000 people	63.5 million people	26.8, 135.1	Japan
9	12 Oct 2019 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	31.9, 134.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Northern Mariana Is.
Japan

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Northern Mariana Is.	Northern Mariana Islands
Shikoku	Japan

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Nikko		18				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Farallon de Medinilla		Northern Mariana Islands
Guguan Island		Northern Mariana Islands
Muroto		Japan
Sakihama		Japan

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Garapan, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 07 Oct 2019 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (4 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 07 Oct 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	07 Oct 2019 16:00	Garapan	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	07 Oct 2019 16:00	Mutcho	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	07 Oct 2019 16:00	Tanapag	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1
	07 Oct 2019 16:00	San Roque	Northern Mariana Islands	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.