Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for RAYMOND-19 in Mexico from 15 Nov 2019 03:00 UTC to 09:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for RAYMOND-19

in Mexico

15 Nov 2019 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RAYMOND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	93 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (18 Nov 04:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	74 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	93 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

74 km/h Current Max.

Up to 310000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	15 Nov 2019 03:00	74	Few people	No people	Mexico
	2	15 Nov 2019 09:00	74	310 thousand	No people	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	15 Nov 2019 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13, -108.4
2	15 Nov 2019 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.5, -108.6
2	15 Nov 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.4, -109.1
2	16 Nov 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, -110
2	16 Nov 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	<1000 people	16.9, -110.7	Mexico
2	17 Nov 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	310000 people	18.9, -110.4	Mexico
2	18 Nov 2019 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	23, -109.7	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Baja California Sur	Mexico

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Isla Socorro		100				0
Cabo San Lucas		139				0
Los Cabos International	SJD	109	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Punta Colorada	PCO	unknown				0
Punta Pescadero		7				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Socorro Island		Mexico
San Lucas		Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo		Mexico
Buenavista		Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in San Lucas, Mexico. This height is estimated for 18 Nov 2019 04:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (4 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 15 Nov 2019 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Nov 2019 04:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 06:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 06:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	18 Nov 2019 05:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.