Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19
in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
07 Dec 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
    Exposed population 50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1.2 m (09 Dec 16:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 204 km/h 1.2 m n.a. 2.5
    Overall 185 km/h 1.2 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      204 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 260000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 130 490 thousand No people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 130 670 thousand Few people Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
        Green 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 157 850 thousand 50 thousand Madagascar
        Green 4 06 Dec 2019 06:00 167 1.2 million 90 thousand Madagascar
        Green 5 06 Dec 2019 18:00 176 1.2 million 20 thousand Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
        Red 6 07 Dec 2019 06:00 204 3 million 260 thousand Madagascar

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 04 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -6.7, 51.6
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -6.7, 50.9
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Dec 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -7.1, 49.9
          GREEN
          		 4 06 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -7.9, 48.7
          GREEN
          		 5 06 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 1 120 <1000 people <1000 people -9.2, 48.4
          GREEN
          		 6 07 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 2 157 no people <1000 people -9.6, 47.4 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 6 07 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 3 185 no people <1000 people -10.7, 46.9 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 6 08 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 3 204 no people 230000 people -11.9, 46.5 Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
          GREEN
          		 6 08 Dec 2019 18:00 Category 4 213 no people 230000 people -13.2, 46 Mayotte
          RED
          		 6 09 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 3 204 110000 people 700000 people -14.7, 45.3 Madagascar
          ORANGE
          		 6 10 Dec 2019 06:00 Category 1 120 160000 people 1.2 million people -18.3, 44.3 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 11 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 1.8 million people -21.6, 44.4 Madagascar
          GREEN
          		 6 12 Dec 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -25.2, 48.2
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Madagascar

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Mahajanga Madagascar
          Toliara Madagascar

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Manja Toliara Madagascar City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Besalampy BPY 38 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Morondava MOQ 7 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Manja MJA 240 Civ. Unpaved No 5200

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Cosmoledo Island Seychelles
          Morondava MGMOQ Madagascar
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          1.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.2m in Tsilambana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 16:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (56 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 07 Dec 2019 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          09 Dec 2019 16:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  1.2
          09 Dec 2019 15:00 Baly Madagascar  1.0
          09 Dec 2019 15:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.9
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.9
          10 Dec 2019 16:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.8
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.7
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.7
          10 Dec 2019 17:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.7
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.7
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.7
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.6
          10 Dec 2019 10:00 Soahanina Madagascar  0.6
          10 Dec 2019 20:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.5
          10 Dec 2019 16:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.5
          10 Dec 2019 13:00 Appontement Madagascar  0.5
          10 Dec 2019 13:00 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.5
          10 Dec 2019 13:00 Tamotamo Madagascar  0.5
          10 Dec 2019 16:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.5
          10 Dec 2019 10:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 14:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 15:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 20:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 20:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 21:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 20:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 07:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.4
          10 Dec 2019 07:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.4
          09 Dec 2019 23:00 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 23:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 23:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 21:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 06:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 01:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 04:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.3
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Onara Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 02:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 07:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 22:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 03:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
          10 Dec 2019 23:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.2
          11 Dec 2019 00:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 17:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
          10 Dec 2019 07:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
          09 Dec 2019 13:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1