Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for AMPHAN-20 in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan from 16 May 2020 06:00 UTC to 20 May 2020 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for AMPHAN-20

in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan

20 May 2020 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AMPHAN-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2020-000137-BGD
Exposed countries	India, Bangladesh, Bhutan
Exposed population	33.8 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	269 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.7 m (20 May 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	139 km/h	1.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	269 km/h	1.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 33.8 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 May 2020 06:00	167	243.2 million	65.9 million	India, Bangladesh
2	16 May 2020 12:00	148	271.3 million	22.3 million	India, Bangladesh
3	16 May 2020 18:00	194	281.6 million	17.5 million	India, Bangladesh
4	17 May 2020 00:00	194	287.9 million	45.9 million	India, Bangladesh, Bhutan
5	17 May 2020 06:00	148	195.2 million	22 million	India, Bangladesh
6	17 May 2020 12:00	204	260.9 million	32.2 million	India, Bangladesh
7	17 May 2020 18:00	204	237.9 million	18.6 million	India, Bangladesh
8	18 May 2020 00:00	204	263.6 million	31.3 million	India, Bangladesh
9	18 May 2020 06:00	148	244.5 million	28.2 million	India, Bangladesh
10	18 May 2020 12:00	204	235.5 million	33.7 million	India, Bangladesh
11	18 May 2020 18:00	204	242.6 million	21.1 million	India, Bangladesh
12	19 May 2020 00:00	213	246.7 million	23.7 million	India, Bangladesh
13	19 May 2020 06:00	157	260.3 million	47.2 million	India, Bangladesh
14	19 May 2020 12:00	157	252.6 million	36.8 million	India, Bangladesh
15	19 May 2020 18:00	185	261.9 million	34.8 million	India, Bangladesh
16	20 May 2020 00:00	157	277.1 million	32.1 million	India, Bangladesh
17	20 May 2020 06:00	157	249.5 million	32.9 million	India, Bangladesh
18	20 May 2020 12:00	139	236.1 million	33.8 million	India, Bangladesh

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 May 2020 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	9.8, 86.4
2	16 May 2020 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	10.3, 86
3	16 May 2020 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	10.9, 86.3
4	17 May 2020 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	10.9, 86.3
5	17 May 2020 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	11.4, 86.3
6	17 May 2020 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	12, 86.4
7	17 May 2020 18:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	12.6, 86.6
8	18 May 2020 00:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	13, 86.4
9	18 May 2020 06:00	Category 5	259	no people	no people	13.6, 86.4
10	18 May 2020 12:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	14, 86.3
11	18 May 2020 18:00	Category 4	241	no people	240000 people	14.8, 86.5	India
12	19 May 2020 00:00	Category 4	222	no people	11.8 million people	15.6, 86.8	India
13	19 May 2020 06:00	Category 3	204	no people	28.1 million people	16.5, 86.8	India
14	19 May 2020 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	43.8 million people	17.4, 87	Bangladesh
15	19 May 2020 18:00	Category 3	185	200000 people	96.5 million people	18.3, 86.9	India
16	20 May 2020 00:00	Category 2	176	260000 people	140.4 million people	19.2, 87.4	India
17	20 May 2020 06:00	Category 2	157	33 million people	189.2 million people	20.5, 87.9	Bangladesh
18	20 May 2020 12:00	Category 1	139	32.3 million people	200.1 million people	22.2, 88.3	Bangladesh
18	21 May 2020 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	117.4 million people	24.3, 88.8	India
18	21 May 2020 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	25.4, 89.1	India

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

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