Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AMPHAN-20
in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan

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2020-05-21 20:22

WTIN20 DEMS 212021
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 21.05.2020

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 2000 UTC OF
21.05.2020 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 21.05.2020.



WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA LAY OVER NORTH BANGLADESH AND
NEIGHBOURHOOD:





THE DEPRESSION [REMNANT OF THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN MOVED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND FURTHER WEAKENED INTO A
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH BANGLADESH AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
AT 1800 UTC OF 21ST MAY 2020. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.



AS PER INSAT-3D SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 21ST MAY SHOWS
THE VORTEX (AMPHAN) LIES OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF BANGLADESH AND
NEIGHBOURHOOD. THE VORTEX CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST BANGLADESH AND TRIPURA.



THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 HPA.



UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG LATITUDE 20.0 0N OVER BAY
OF BENGAL.







THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, REGULAR BULLETIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM NATIONAL WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE, IMD NEW DELHI
AND REGIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE GUWAHATI.=

>

2020-05-21 19:35

WTIN20 DEMS 211934
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 21.05.2020

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1930 UTC OF
21.05.2020 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 21.05.2020.



WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA LAY OVER NORTH BANGLADESH AND
NEIGHBOURHOOD:





THE DEPRESSION [REMNANT OF THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN MOVED
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND FURTHER WEAKENED INTO A
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH BANGLADESH AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
AT 1800 UTC OF 21ST MAY 2020. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.



AS PER INSAT-3D SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 21ST MAY SHOWS
THE VORTEX (AMPHAN) LIES OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF BANGLADESH AND
NEIGHBOURHOOD. THE VORTEX CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST BANGLADESH AND TRIPURA.



THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 HPA.



UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG LATITUDE 20.0 0N OVER BAY
OF BENGAL.=

>

2020-05-21 15:00

WTIN20 DEMS 211457
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 21.05.2020

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF
 21.05.2020 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 21.05.2020.

DEPRESSION LAY OVER BANGLADESH

THE DEEP DEPRESSION [REMNANT OF THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN MOVED
 SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS,
FURTHER WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF
21ST MAY 2020 OVER BANGLADESH NEAR LAT. 25.4ON AND LONG. 89.6OE ABOUT
 300 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOLKATA (42807), 110 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
DHUBRI(42404) AND 80 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF RANGPUR (41984).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN
 FURTHER INTO A WELL MARKED LOW DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.



AS PER INSAT-3D SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 21ST MAY SHOWS
 THE VORTEX (AMPHAN) LIES OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF BANGLADESH AND
NEIGHBOURHOOD. THE VORTEX CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY DEFINED. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER BANGLADESH, ASSAM, MEGHALAYA, TRIPURA AND MIZORAM.




THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO
30 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 HPA.



UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ROUGHLY ALONG LATITUDE 19.0N OVER BAY
OF BENGAL.

 =

>

2020-05-21 09:54

WTIN20 DEMS 210950

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF
21.05.2020 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 21.05.2020.



DEEP DEPRESSION LAY OVER BANGLADESH



THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) MOVED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH A SPEED OF 06 KMPH
DURING PAST 06 HOURS, FURTHER WEAKENED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY
CENTERED AT 0600UTC OF TODAY, THE 21ST MAY 2020 OVER BANGLADESH NEAR
LAT. 25.0ON AND LONG. 89.6OE ABOUT  300 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KOLKATA(
42807), 110KM SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF DHUBRI (42404)  AND 80 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF RANGPUR (41984). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
NEXT 06 HOURS AND FURTHER INTO A WELL MARKED LOW THEREAFTER.

AS PER INSAT-3D SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 21TH MAY SHOWS
THE VORTEX LIES OVER THE LAND IN AREAS OF CENTRAL PARTS OF
BANGALDESH. CENTRE NOT CLEARLY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HIGHER
CLOUDS HAVE SHEARED AWAY TOWARDS NORTH-EAST FROM THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION OVER  BANGLADESH AND WEST ASSAM MEGHALAYA. MINIMUM
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE -68 DEG C.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA.

UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN-THE EASTERN PARTS OF
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 21.0N ACROSS LAND AT NORTH OF BOB
WHILE ITS WESTERN PARTS LIES ALONG 13.0N MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS
OF ARABIAN SEAS=

>

2020-05-20 14:27

WTIO51 PGTW 201500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200520134826
2020052012 01B AMPHAN     018  01 010 17 SATL RADR 025
T000 222N 0883E 075 R064 010 NE QD 015 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 243N 0888E 050
T024 254N 0891E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 018
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 88.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 88.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 24.3N 88.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 25.4N 89.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 88.4E.
20MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051918 183N 871E 100
0120051918 183N 871E 100
0120051918 183N 871E 100
0120052000 192N 875E  95
0120052000 192N 875E  95
0120052000 192N 875E  95
0120052006 205N 879E  85
0120052006 205N 879E  85
0120052006 205N 879E  85
0120052012 222N 883E  75
0120052012 222N 883E  75
0120052012 222N 883E  75
NNNN

>

2020-05-20 14:26

WTIO31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 018
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 22.2N 88.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 88.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 24.3N 88.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 25.4N 89.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 88.4E.
20MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
//
NNNN

>

2020-05-20 09:01

WTIN31 DEMS 200859
QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXTREMELY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BASED
ON 0600 UTC OF 20TH MAY, 2020 FOR WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:


PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 200600 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 20.6 0N/88.00E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 021/15 KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 20 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

201200Z   22.00N /88.400 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS:  85 KT, GUSTS 95 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

201800Z  23.20ON /88.80 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 KT, GUSTS 70 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:

210000Z  24.6ON /89.30 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 KT, GUSTS 45 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

210600Z  26.0ON /90.30 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS:  20 KT, GUSTS 25 KT=

>

2020-05-20 08:38

WTIO51 PGTW 200900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200520074105
2020052006 01B AMPHAN     017  01 015 14 SATL 030
T000 205N 0879E 085 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 229N 0886E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 244N 0890E 045
T036 253N 0898E 030
AMP
    012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 87.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 87.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 22.9N 88.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 24.4N 89.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 25.3N 89.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 88.1E.
20MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051918 183N 871E 100
0120051918 183N 871E 100
0120051918 183N 871E 100
0120052000 192N 875E  95
0120052000 192N 875E  95
0120052000 192N 875E  95
0120052006 205N 879E  85
0120052006 205N 879E  85
0120052006 205N 879E  85
NNNN

>

2020-05-20 08:34

WTIO31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 87.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 87.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 22.9N 88.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 24.4N 89.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 25.3N 89.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 88.1E.
20MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
129NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH
UNIFORM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT CONTINUES TO ERODE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 200325Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND A 200722Z ATMS MICROWAVE PASS WHICH SHOWS
THAT THE STRONGEST REMAINING CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. RADAR DATA FROM INDIA SUPPORTS THE ASSESSMENT OF
THE MICROWAVE DATA AND THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS), AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T4.2 (69 KNOTS) AND A 200325Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE OF 91 KNOTS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL, WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
DISPLACED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER
CENTERED TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM
AS INDICATED BY THE EROSION OF THE CDO AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH CONTINUOUS
WEAKENING FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF
KOLKATA NEAR 201200Z, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND WHILE RAPIDLY
WEAKENING DUE TO SUSTAINED WESTERLY VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION,
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-20 07:06

WTIN01 DEMS 200704
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM  0600 UTC 20 MAY 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

SUB: SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL: CYCLONE WARNING FOR WEST BENGAL AND NORTH
ODISHA COASTS: RED MESSAGE.

        THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 12
KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF  TODAY, THE
20TH MAY, 2020 AS AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER NORTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 87.7 DEG E,
ABOUT 120 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (ODISHA), 200 KM SOUTH OF
DIGHA (WEST BENGAL) AND 360 KM SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (BANGLADESH).
 IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS NORTHWEST BAY
OF BENGAL AND CROSS WEST BENGAL \U2013 BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN
DIGHA (WEST BENGAL) AND HATIYA ISLANDS (BANGLADESH) CLOSE TO
SUNDARBANS DURING AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS OF TODAY, THE 20TH MAY
2020 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 84-89 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100
KNOTS LANDFALL PROCESS TO COMMENCE FROM TODAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
LANDFALL THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS CLOSE TO
KOLKATA.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/05/20 AT 12 UTC 22.0 N / 88.4 E MAX WIND 85 KTS
EXTREMLY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2020/05/21 AT 00 UTC 24.6 N / 89.3 E MAX WIND 35 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW/W 10/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE E OF 72
DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 EG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 4 DEG N:SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC NW-LY
10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 92 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 88 DE E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 7 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 88 DE E: 3-2 NM(.)
2)S OF 7 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 13 CYCLONIC 75/85 KTS (.)
2)S OF 14 DEG N: SW-LY 20/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 82 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 82 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 20/30 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM(.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2020-05-20 02:21

WTIO51 PGTW 200300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200520014034
2020052000 01B AMPHAN     016  01 015 09 SATL RADR 040
T000 192N 0874E 095 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 215N 0881E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 236N 0889E 055 R050 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 249N 0894E 040
T048 258N 0902E 025
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 87.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 87.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 21.5N 88.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 23.6N 88.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 24.9N 89.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 25.8N 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 87.6E.
20MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL SYMMETRICAL CORE STRUCTURE THROUGH THE 0000Z HOUR, THOUGH SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) IS STARTING ERODE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE AND THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING INCREASINLY RAGGED LOOKING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 192307Z DMSP SSMIS 37 GHZ AND 89 GHZ COLORIZED IMAGES, SHOWING A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE IN THE FORMER AND MUCH STRONGER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE LATTER. RADAR DATA FROM INDIA SUPPORTS THE ASSESSMENT OF THE MICROWAVE DATA AND THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT A GENEROUS 95 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER IN LIGHT OF AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.8 (87 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SSTS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST AND THIS TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY THE EROSION OF THE CDO AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 10 KNOTS OF WEAKENING FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA NEAR 201200Z, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED WESTERLY VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION, BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051918 183N 871E 100
0120051918 183N 871E 100
0120051918 183N 871E 100
0120052000 192N 874E  95
0120052000 192N 874E  95
0120052000 192N 874E  95
NNNN

>

2020-05-20 02:21

WTIO31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 87.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 87.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 21.5N 88.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 23.6N 88.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 24.9N 89.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 25.8N 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 87.6E.
20MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS MAINTAINED ITS OVERALL SYMMETRICAL CORE STRUCTURE THROUGH THE 0000Z HOUR, THOUGH SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) IS STARTING ERODE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE AND THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY RAGGED LOOKING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 192307Z DMSP SSMIS 37 GHZ AND 89 GHZ COLORIZED IMAGES, SHOWING A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE IN THE FORMER AND MUCH STRONGER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE LATTER. RADAR DATA FROM INDIA SUPPORTS THE ASSESSMENT OF THE MICROWAVE DATA AND THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AT A GENEROUS 95 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER IN LIGHT OF AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.8 (87 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SSTS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST AND THIS TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM AS INDICATED BY THE EROSION OF THE CDO AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 10 KNOTS OF WEAKENING FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA NEAR 201200Z, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INLAND WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED WESTERLY VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION, BEFORE DISSIPATING BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-19 20:32

WTIO51 PGTW 192100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200519191940
2020051918 01B AMPHAN     015  01 355 09 SATL 040
T000 183N 0869E 100 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 200 SE QD 145 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 204N 0872E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 227N 0880E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 246N 0886E 045
T048 259N 0896E 030
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 86.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 86.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 20.4N 87.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 22.7N 88.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 24.6N 88.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 25.9N 89.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 87.0E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 01B HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY MAINTAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP, COLD CONVECTION AND HINTS OF AN EYE OR WARM SPOT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LACK OF CLEARLY DEFINED CENTER AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCASE, SOME TILT IN THE CORE AS DEPICTED IN BOTH HWRF CROSS-SECTIONS AND COMPARISON OF LOW AND HIGH FREQUENCY MICROWAVE DATA FROM 191306Z. RADAR DATA ALSO DOES NOT CLEARLY IDENTIFY THE CENTER BUT BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TOOK A SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH JOG OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND CURRENLTY LIES ROUGHLY DUE SOUTH OF PARADIP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW SUPPORTED BY A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 108 KNOTS. THE OVERALL ENVIORNMENT IS MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. VWS HAS LIKELY PEAKED ACCORDING TO THE LATEST CIMSS ANALYSIS, AND THE SHIPS FORECAST PRODUCT INDICATES A SLIGHT LOWERING OF THE OVERALL SHEAR THROUGH LANDFALL ACCOMPANIED BY A SHIFT IN THE SHEAR VECTOR TO BECOME MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION. THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON WHY THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE INNER CORE AND FIGHT OFF THE HIGH SHEAR VALUES. TC 01B IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER TO THE EAST. WHILE THE SIX HOUR TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE NORTH, THIS IS LIKELY JUST A WOBBLE AND RESUMPTION OF A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA NEAR TAU 30. AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD, THE SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DECREASING OR STEADY SHEAR VALUES THROUGH TAU 18 WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR VEERING TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WHICH WOULD PUT IT ALMOST DIRECTLY IN PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH 25-30 KNOT SHEAR VALUES, WITH LANDFALL INTENSITY FORECAST AT 90 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, RAPIDLY INCREASING WESTERLY VWS COMBINED WITH TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL SERVE TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 36, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER AS MODEL TRACKERS EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY IN TRACKING THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING VORTEX. THE JTWC TRACK LIKES WEST OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AT TAU 12 REFLECTING THE CURRENT WOBBLE IN STORM MOTION, THEN TRACKS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE  TIGHTEST PACKING OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051906 165N 869E 110
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051918 183N 869E 100
0120051918 183N 869E 100
0120051918 183N 869E 100
NNNN

>

2020-05-19 20:24

WTIO31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 87.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 87.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 19.5N 87.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 21.9N 88.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 24.1N 88.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 25.5N 89.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 87.1E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
322 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM THAT STILL RETAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED BANDING DESPITE NO LONGER PRESENTING A VISIBLE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY LONG-RANGE RADAR DATA FROM INDIA,
WHICH CAPTURES THE INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL, IN ADDITION TO A
MICROWAVE EYE SEEN IN A 191033Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE EYEWALL IS
OPEN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF THE EASTERLY
SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS
IN AGREEMENT GIVEN THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102
KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE AT 191215Z OF T5.9 (95 KNOTS). TC 01B IS TRACKING THROUGH A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE
EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS AND A DETERIORATING
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU
24. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BEFORE TAU 48 DUE TO HIGH (>25 KNOTS)
VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY MINIMAL SPREAD (50 NM) AT
LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER AS MODELS HAVE
DIFFICULTY IN TRACKING THE VORTEX. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COTI, INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z,
200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-19 18:54

WTIN01 DEMS 191800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 19 MAY 2020.



PART-I STORM WARNING



SUB: SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER
WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL: CYCLONE WARNING
FOR WEST BENGAL AND NORTH ODISHA COASTS: RED MESSAGE.



        THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM  AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS
UM-PUN) OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 09 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF
19TH MAY, 2020 OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 87.0 DEG E, ABOUT 320 KM
NEARLY SOUTH OF PARADIP (ODISHA), 470 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA
(WEST BENGAL) AND 610 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (BANGLADESH).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS NORTHWEST BAY
OF BENGAL AND CROSS WEST BENGAL \U2013 BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN
DIGHA (WEST BENGAL) AND HATIYA ISLANDS (BANGLADESH) CLOSE TO
SUNDARBANS DURING AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS OF 20TH MAY 2020 WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 83-89 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS.(.)



THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KNOTS GUSTING TO
115 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 HPA (.)



12 HRS VALID 2020/05/20 AT 00 UTC 19.4 N / 87.4 E MAX WIND 95 KTS
EXTREMLY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/05/20 AT 12 UTC 21.8 N / 88.3 E MAX WIND 85 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)



PART-II NIL (.)



ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 15/20 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS TO THE E OF 72
DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW/W 15/25 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS

TO THE E OF 75 DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.5 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF

60 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 13 DEG N TO E OF 68 EG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 13 DEG N TO E OF 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF

60 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80

DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG

E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 4 DEG N: SW-LY 20/25 KTS BEC NW-LY

10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 92 DEG E (.)

2)REST AREA: SW-LY 15/25 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)S OF 6 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2NM (.)

2)S OF 6 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: 4-3NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 7 DEG N TO W OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 7 DEG N TO W OF 87 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 13 CYCLONIC 90/105 KTS (.)

2)S OF 14 DEG N: SW-LY 20/30 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 18 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 18 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)

2)S OF 18 DEG N TO E OF 88 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 20/30 KTS BEC SE-LY 25/35 KTS

TO THE N OF 20 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 93 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS(.)

2)E OF 88 TO 93 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 93 DEG E: 4-3 NM(.)

2)E OF 88 TO 93 DEG E: 8-6 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 2.5-4.5 MTR (.)

-----------------------------------------------------------

TOO:-19/2330=

>

2020-05-19 16:03

WTIN31 DEMS 191602

QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXTREMELY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 19TH
MAY, 2020 FOR WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 191200 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 17.4 0N/87.00E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 006/09 KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 105 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 20 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

191800Z   18.40N /87.20 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS:  100 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

200000Z  19.4ON /87.40 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 95 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

   140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
   160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:

200600Z  20.6ON /87.80 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 90 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

201200Z  21.8ON /88.30 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS:  85 KT, GUSTS 95 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



36 HRS, VALID AT:

210000Z  23.8ON /89.20 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS:  45 KT, GUSTS 55 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



48 HRS, VALID AT:

211200Z  25.0ON /90.00 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS:  25 KT, GUSTS 35 KT=

>

2020-05-19 14:18

WTIO51 PGTW 191500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200519132003
2020051912 01B AMPHAN     014  01 010 09 SATL 025
T000 174N 0870E 100 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 200 SE QD 145 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 195N 0876E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 219N 0883E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 241N 0889E 045 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 255N 0894E 030
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 87.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 87.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 19.5N 87.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 21.9N 88.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 24.1N 88.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 25.5N 89.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 87.1E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.
//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051906 165N 868E 110
0120051906 165N 868E 110
0120051906 165N 868E 110
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051912 174N 870E 100
0120051912 174N 870E 100
NNNN

>

2020-05-19 14:17

WTIO31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191200Z --- NEAR 17.4N 87.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4N 87.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 19.5N 87.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 21.9N 88.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 24.1N 88.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 25.5N 89.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 87.1E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM THAT STILL RETAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED BANDING DESPITE NO LONGER PRESENTING A VISIBLE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY LONG-RANGE RADAR DATA FROM INDIA,
WHICH CAPTURES THE INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL, IN ADDITION TO A MICROWAVE
EYE SEEN IN A 191033Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR AND MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS IN AGREEMNT GIVEN
THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 191215Z
OF T5.9 (95 KNOTS). TC 01B IS TRACKING THROUGH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO
HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS AND A DETERIORATING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
BEFORE TAU 48 DUE TO HIGH (>25 KNOTS) VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY
MINIMAL SPREAD (50 NM) AT LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THEREAFTER AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY IN TRACKING THE VORTEX. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COTI, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-19 12:01

WTIN01 DEMS 190900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0900 UTC 19 MAY 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

SUB: SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER WEST
CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL

THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER
WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF
8 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF 19TH MAY,
2020 AS AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEG N
AND LONGITUDE 86.9 DEG E OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL ABOUT 420 KM
NEARLY SOUTH OF PARADIP (42976), 570 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA
(42901) AND 700 KM SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
AND CROSS WEST BENGAL \U2013 BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN DIGHA (42901)
AND HATIYA ISLANDS (41963) CLOSE TO SUNDARBANS DURING 0900-1200 UTC
OF 20TH MAY 2020 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 85-90 KTS
GUSTING TO 100 KTS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
125 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 HPA. (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/05/19 AT 18 UTC 18.0 N / 87.3 E MAX WIND 100 KTS
EXTREMLY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2020/05/20 AT 06 UTC 20.9 N / 88.2 E MAX WIND 85 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW/W 10/25 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS
TO THE E OF 72 DEG E(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 EG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 4 DEG N:SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC NW-LY
10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 92 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 88 DE E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 7 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 88 DE E: 3-2 NM(.)
2)S OF 7 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 13 CYCLONIC 100/105 KTS (.)
2)S OF 14 DEG N: SW-LY 20/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 84 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 82 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 20/30 KTS BEC SE-LY 30/40 KTS
TO THE N OF 18 DEG N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM(.)
2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2020-05-19 09:49

WTIN31 DEMS 190949

QUADRANT WIND DISTRIBUTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH EXTREMELY SEVERE
CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BASED
ON 0600 UTC OF 19TH MAY, 2020 FOR WHICH FORECAST IS PREPARED:



PRESENT DATE AND TIME: 190600 UTC

PRESENT POSITION: 16.5 0N/86.90E

POSITION ACCURATE TO 20 KM

PRESENT MOVEMENT (DDD/FF) PAST SIX HOURS: 010/10 KT

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 115 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND 20 NM
WINDS VARY IN EACH QUADRANT

RADII ARE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THE QUADRANT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

FORECASTS:

06 HRS, VALID AT:

191200Z   17.10N /87.10 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS:  110 KT, GUSTS 120 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



12 HRS, VALID AT:

191800Z  18.0ON /87.30 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 105 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



18 HRS, VALID AT:

200000Z  19.3ON /87.70 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS: 100 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



24 HRS, VALID AT:

200600Z  20.9ON /88.20 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS:  90 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS:

40 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

40 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

30 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

35 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



36 HRS, VALID AT:

201800Z  22.7ON /88.70 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS:  55 KT, GUSTS 65 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

      160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

 RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS:

70 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

70 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

60 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

60NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



48 HRS, VALID AT:

210600Z  24.3ON /89.30 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS:  30 KT, GUSTS 40 KT

RADIUS OF 027 KT WINDS:

150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

               100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



60 HRS, VALID AT:

211800Z  25.6ON /90.20 E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS:  15 KT, GUSTS 25KT=

>

2020-05-19 09:02

WTIO31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 86.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 86.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 18.5N 87.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 20.8N 87.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 23.1N 88.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 24.8N 89.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 26.5N 89.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 86.9E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
377 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST (CDO) OBSCURING A POSSIBLE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY LONG-RANGE RADAR DATA FROM INDIA WHICH
CAPTURES THE INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL. THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR AND MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS IN AGREEEMNT
GIVEN THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT
190615Z OF T5.9 (112 KNOTS). TC 01B IS TRACKING THROUGH A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
VWS IS THE PRIMARY CONSTRAINT ON THE SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT. TC 01B IS
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER
TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN ONTO A SLIGHTLY NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
01B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR UNTIL
IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
BEFORE TAU 72 DUE TO HIGH (>25 KNOTS) VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH
ONLY MINIMAL SPREAD (50 NM) AT LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THEREAFTER AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY IN TRACKING THE VORTEX. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE
MOSTLY SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF, WHICH INDICATES A NEAR-TERM STEADY
INTENSITY OR EVEN SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW HWRF
THROUGH TAU 24, THEN TRACKS ALONG HWRF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE
UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 45
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-19 09:00

WTIO51 PGTW 190900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200519073556
2020051906 01B AMPHAN     013  01 360 09 SATL 025
T000 165N 0868E 110 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 220 SE QD 145 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 185N 0873E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 208N 0879E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 231N 0886E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 248N 0892E 040
T072 265N 0899E 030
AMP
    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 86.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 86.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 18.5N 87.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 20.8N 87.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 23.1N 88.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 24.8N 89.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 26.5N 89.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 86.9E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.
//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051906 165N 868E 110
0120051906 165N 868E 110
0120051906 165N 868E 110
NNNN

>

2020-05-19 05:39

WTIN01 DEMS 190530
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0400 UTC 19 MAY 2020.



PART-I STORM WARNING



SUB:SUPERCYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN)
OVER WEST CENTRALBAY OF BENGAL.



THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER
WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 7 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS,
 LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OFTHE 19TH MAY, 2020 NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 DEG
N AND LONGITUDE 86.7 DEG E, ABOUT 520 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PARADIP
 (42976), 670 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901) AND 800 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984).IT IS VERY LIKELY TO WEAKEN
INTO AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 06 HOURS. IT IS
 VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS NORTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL AND CROSS WEST BENGAL \U2013BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN DIGHA
 (42901) AND HATIYA ISLANDS (41963) CLOSE TO SUNDARBANS DURING
 0900-1200 UTC OF 20TH MAY 2020 AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 85-90 KTS GUSTING TO 95 KTS (.)



THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 115 KNOTS GUSTING TO
125 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940HPA (.)



12 HRS VALID 2020/05/19 AT 12 UTC 17.4 N / 87.1 E MAX WIND 105 KTS
EXTREMLY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/05/20 AT 00 UTC 19.6 N / 87.8 E MAX WIND 105 KTS
EXTREMLY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)



PART-II NIL (.)



ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW/W 10/25 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS TO THE E OF 72
DEG E(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.5 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF

60 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 EG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW/W-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF

60 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80

DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG

E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 4 DEG N:SW/W-LY 15/25 KTS BEC NW-LY

10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 92 DEG E (.)

2)REST AREA: SW-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 88 DE E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)S OF 7 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 88 DE E: 3-2 NM(.)

2)S OF 7 DEG N TO W OF 85 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 13 CYCLONIC 95/105 KTS (.)

2)S OF 14 DEG N: SW-LY 20/30 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 82 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 82 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 20/30 KTS BEC SE-LY 30/40 KTS

TO THE N OF 18 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 90 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM(.)

2)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 90 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2020-05-19 02:55

WTIO51 PGTW 190300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200519012022
2020051900 01B AMPHAN     012  01 020 09 SATL RADR 020
T000 156N 0868E 120 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 165 SE QD 180 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 174N 0873E 115 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 195N 0879E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 220N 0887E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 243N 0894E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 263N 0916E 025
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 86.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 86.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 17.4N 87.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 19.5N 87.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.0N 88.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 24.3N 89.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 26.3N 91.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 86.9E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH A UNIFORM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) AND NO EYE, AT LEAST NOT IN THE VISIBLE OR INFRARED BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 182321Z DMSP 89 GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A NEWLY FORMED PRIMARY EYEWALL SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MICROWAVE EYE AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 18 NM. THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR DEPICTED IN MODEL VERTICAL CROSS-SECTIONS THAT ARE IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND PRECLUDING MORE RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE NEW EYEWALL AND COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LONG-RANGE RADAR DATA FROM INDIA WHICH CAPTURED THE INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS HELD ABOVE THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS), HEDGED UPWARD BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.3 (122 KNOTS). ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 01B IS TRACKING THROUGH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE VWS AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MENTIONED EARLIER ARE THE PRIMARY CONSTRAINTS ON THE SYSTEM AT THE MOMENT WITH CIMSS SHEAR ESTIMATES CURRENTLY 17.8 KNOTS FROM 150 DEG. TC 01B IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE ERC NEARING COMPLETION AND THE EYEWALL BEGINNING TO REESTABLISH ITSELF IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE THE NEW EYE FULLY CONSOLIDATES. ONCE THE EYE BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE NEW CORE BECOMES MORE ROBUST AND THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH THE STORM MOTION, RESULTING IN LOWER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA NEAR TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF BHUTAN DUE TO RAPIDLY INREASING WESTERLY VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY MINIMAL SPREAD (25 NM) AT LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULY IN TRACKING THE VORTEX. WITH THE VERY TIGHT PACKING IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC AND HWRF, BOTH OF WHICH INDICATE A NEAR-TERM STEADY INTENSITY OR EVEN SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE HWRF THROUGH TAU 24, THEN TRACKS THE HWRF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE ERC AND THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
0120051900 156N 868E 120
NNNN

>

2020-05-19 02:52

WTIO31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190000Z --- NEAR 15.6N 86.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 86.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 17.4N 87.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 19.5N 87.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.0N 88.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 24.3N 89.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 26.3N 91.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 86.9E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICT A WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH A UNIFORM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) AND NO EYE, AT LEAST NOT IN THE VISIBLE OR INFRARED BANDS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IN PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
182321Z DMSP 89 GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A NEWLY FORMED
PRIMARY EYEWALL SOLIDLY ENTRENCHED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
MICROWAVE EYE AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 18 NM. THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR DEPICTED IN MODEL VERTICAL CROSS-SECTIONS THAT
ARE IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND PRECLUDING MORE RAPID CONSOLIDATION
OF THE NEW EYEWALL AND COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LONG-RANGE RADAR
DATA FROM INDIA WHICH CAPTURED THE INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS HELD ABOVE THE PGTW CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS), HEDGED UPWARD BASED ON AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.3
(122 KNOTS). ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 01B IS TRACKING THROUGH A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VWS, VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE VWS AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
MENTIONED EARLIER ARE THE PRIMARY CONSTRAINTS ON THE SYSTEM AT THE
MOMENT WITH CIMSS SHEAR ESTIMATES CURRENTLY 17.8 KNOTS FROM 150
DEG. TC 01B IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE ERC NEARING COMPLETION AND THE EYEWALL BEGINNING TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE
SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE THE NEW EYE FULLY
CONSOLIDATES. ONCE THE EYE BECOMES FULLY ESTABLISHED THE SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE NEW CORE BECOMES
MORE ROBUST AND THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES MORE ALIGNED WITH THE
STORM MOTION, RESULTING IN LOWER EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA NEAR TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF BHUTAN DUE TO RAPIDLY
INCREASING WESTERLY VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY MINIMAL
SPREAD (25 NM) AT LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER
AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY IN TRACKING THE VORTEX. WITH THE VERY
TIGHT PACKING IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOWS A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COAMPS-TC AND HWRF, BOTH OF WHICH INDICATE A NEAR-TERM STEADY
INTENSITY OR EVEN SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE
HWRF THROUGH TAU 24, THEN TRACKS THE HWRF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE ERC
AND THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS
50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-18 20:40

WTIO51 PGTW 182100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200518194448
2020051818 01B AMPHAN     011  01 015 08 SATL RADR 010
T000 148N 0865E 130 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD 175 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 164N 0869E 120 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 185N 0875E 120 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 206N 0881E 110 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 230N 0888E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 260N 0905E 030
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 14.8N 86.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 86.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.4N 86.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 18.5N 87.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 20.6N 88.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 23.0N 88.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 26.0N 90.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 86.6E.
18MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, IN RESPONSE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WITH THE EYE ACTUALLY FILLING AND DISAPPEARING FROM INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 9 NM EYE EVIDENT IN GOES-IO SATELLITE, SUPPORTED BY FIRST INDICATIONS OF THE INNER EYE ON IMD RADAR DATA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO MICROWAVE PASSES SINCE A 1514Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWED THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS BROKEN DOWN ON THE EASTERN SIDE AS WELL AS INDICATIONS OF THE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMING, ALSO OPEN ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE LAST GOOD HIGH RESOLUTION MICROWAVE WAS A 1211Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE WHICH SHOWED THE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMING ABOUT 25 NM OUT FROM THE CENTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE ASSESSMENT OF ONGOING ERC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 6.0/6.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW, AND A 6.5 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM DEMS AT 1200Z. THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 7.1, BUT THE FINAL T-NUMBER WAS ALSO 6.5 AT 1800Z. ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 01B REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, VERY WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED EXTENSION OF THE NER CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF THAILAND. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO CONTINEU TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA ROUGHLY NEAR TAU 40. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND. THE ERC IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE BEFORE TAU 24 WITH A NEW, MUCH BROADER EYE REFORMING, WHICH WILL SERVE TO ARREST THE WEAKENING TREND FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE, HOWEVER THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER OVER TIME, WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMING MORE IN PHASE WITH THE STORM TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL, LOWERING THE EFFECTIVE VWS TO LOW-MODERATE LEVELS. WITH VERY WARM WATERS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST, AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE MAINTENANCE OF MORE MODERATE LEVELS OF RELATIVE VWS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND STEADILY INCREASING VWS FROM THE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY 27 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 48 WITH ECMWF ON THE RIGHT AND GFS ON THE LEFT OF THE VERY TIGHT ENVELOPE. AFTER LANDFALL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO TRACK THE VORTEX. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK WHICH HUGS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE MIXED, THOUGH MOST INDICATE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND, WITH HWRF BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER ON THE HIGH SIDE, EVEN SHOWING SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 12, THEN ABOVE IT AND CLOSER TO THE HWRF SOLUTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 140
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
0120051818 148N 865E 130
NNNN

>

2020-05-18 20:40

WTIO31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 14.8N 86.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 86.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.4N 86.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 18.5N 87.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 20.6N 88.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 23.0N 88.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 26.0N 90.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 86.6E.
18MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, IN RESPONSE TO AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WITH THE EYE ACTUALLY FILLING AND DISAPPEARING
FROM INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 9 NM EYE EVIDENT IN GOES-IO
SATELLITE, SUPPORTED BY FIRST INDICATIONS OF THE INNER EYE ON IMD
RADAR DATA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO MICROWAVE PASSES SINCE A 1514Z AMSU-B
89 GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWED THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS BROKEN DOWN ON
THE EASTERN SIDE AS WELL AS INDICATIONS OF THE SECONDARY EYEWALL
FORMING, ALSO OPEN ON THE EASTERN SIDE. THE LAST GOOD HIGH
RESOLUTION MICROWAVE WAS A 1211Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE
WHICH SHOWED THE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMING ABOUT 25 NM OUT FROM THE
CENTER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE ASSESSMENT OF ONGOING ERC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 6.0/6.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW, AND A 6.5 CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM DEMS AT 1200Z. THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 7.1, BUT THE FINAL T-NUMBER WAS ALSO
6.5 AT 1800Z. ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 01B REMAINS IN A GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, VERY WARM (31-32
CELSIUS) SSTS AND STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED EXTENSION OF THE NER CENTERED
NEAR THE GULF OF THAILAND. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA ROUGHLY NEAR TAU 40. AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.
THE ERC IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE BEFORE TAU 24 WITH A NEW, MUCH
BROADER EYE REFORMING, WHICH WILL SERVE TO ARREST THE WEAKENING
TREND FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN TAUS 12 AND 24. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHWARD VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE,
HOWEVER THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER OVER TIME, WITH
THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMING MORE IN PHASE WITH THE STORM TRACK THROUGH
LANDFALL, LOWERING THE EFFECTIVE VWS TO LOW-MODERATE LEVELS. WITH
VERY WARM WATERS EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST, AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE MAINTENANCE OF MORE MODERATE LEVELS OF
RELATIVE VWS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND STEADILY INCREASING VWS FROM THE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH ONLY 27 NM OF SPREAD AT TAU 48 WITH ECMWF ON
THE RIGHT AND GFS ON THE LEFT OF THE VERY TIGHT ENVELOPE. AFTER
LANDFALL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO TRACK
THE VORTEX. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK WHICH HUGS
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE MIXED, THOUGH MOST INDICATE A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND, WITH HWRF BEING THE SOLE OUTLIER ON THE HIGH
SIDE, EVEN SHOWING SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 12, THEN ABOVE IT AND CLOSER TO THE HWRF
SOLUTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 52 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-18 16:47

WTIN01 DEMS 181630
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1500 UTC 18 MAY 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

SUB: SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN)
OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL: CYCLONE WARNING FOR WEST BENGAL AND
NORTH ODISHA COASTS: ORANGE MESSAGE.
.
THE SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN)
OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 06 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS
AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 18TH MAY, 2020 NEAR
LATITUDE 14.0 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 86.3 DEG E OVER WESTCENTRAL BAY OF
 BENGAL ABOUT 700 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PARADIP (ODISHA), 860 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (WEST BENGAL) AND 980 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF

KHEPUPARA (BANGLADESH).
 IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS
NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND CROSS WEST BENGAL \U2013 BANGLADESH
COASTS BETWEEN DIGHA (WEST BENGAL) AND HATIYA ISLANDS (BANGLADESH)
CLOSE TO SUNDARBANS DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING OF 20TH MAY 2020
AS AN EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED OF 89-94 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KNOTS GUSTING TO
130 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/05/19 AT 00 UTC 15.9 N / 86.7 E MAX WIND 125 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2020/05/19 AT 12 UTC 17.7 N / 87.2 E MAX WIND 120 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 62 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 EG E: SW/W 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 TO 68 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 TO 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 65 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 73 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 65 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 73 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 93 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 93 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 108/130 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY : 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: CYCLONIC 73/108 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY:  3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

2020-05-18 13:28

WTIO51 PGTW 181500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200518124342
2020051812 01B AMPHAN     010  01 010 06 SATL 010
T000 140N 0863E 145 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 135 SE QD 155 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 155N 0867E 150 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 174N 0871E 130 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 196N 0878E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 220N 0885E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 254N 0896E 030
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 15.5N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 17.4N 87.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 19.6N 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.0N 88.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 25.4N 89.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 86.4E.
18MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 54 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.
//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051806 134N 862E 140
0120051812 140N 863E 145
0120051812 140N 863E 145
0120051812 140N 863E 145
NNNN

>

2020-05-18 13:18

WTIO31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 15.5N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 17.4N 87.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 19.6N 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.0N 88.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 25.4N 89.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 86.4E.
18MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
530 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE SYSTEM (600NM+ ACROSS) THAT
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH SUPER-DENSE, DEEP, AND SYMMETRICAL
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-
OUTLINED 10NM ROUND EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED MICROWAVE
PINHOLE EYE IN THE 181013Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE TAKING
PLACE WITH THE PRESENCE OF TWO DISTINCT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS, TYPICAL
FOR VERY INTENSE CYCLONES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T7.0/140KTS FROM PGTW TO REFLECT
THE IMPROVED EIR SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS (31C+)
ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. TC AMPHAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWARD IN THE BAY OF BENGAL ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 150KTS OVER
THE NEXT 12HRS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM DOWN TO 85KTS BY TAU 48 JUST AFTER LANDFALL SOUTH OF KOLKATA.
AFTERWARD, EXTREMELY RUGGED TERRAIN, IN ADDITION TO HIGH VWS
(40KTS+), WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72. GLOBAL NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL
SPREADING TO 120NM AT TAU 72 WITH NAVGEM ON THE LEFT AND UKMET ON
THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 54 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z,
190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-18 10:56

WTIN01 DEMS 181049 COR
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1000 UTC 18 MAY 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

SUB:-EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN)
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL.

 THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN)
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 2 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS,
INTENSIFIED FURTHER INTO A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT
0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 18TH MAY, 2020 OVER WEST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING
CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE NEAR 13.4 DEG N
AND LONGITUDE 86.2 DEG E, ABOUT 770 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PARADIP
(42976), 920 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901) AND 1040 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NEARLY NORTHWARDS FOR SOME MORE TIME AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS
ACROSS NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND CROSS WEST BENGAL \U2013
BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN DIGHA (42901) AND HATIYA ISLANDS (41963)
CLOSE TO SUNDARBANS DURING 0900-1200 UTC OF 20TH MAY 2020 AS AN
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF
165-175 KMPH GUSTING TO 185 KMPH (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KNOTS GUSTING TO
130 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/05/18 AT 18 UTC 15.2N / 86.5E  MAX WIND 125 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2020/05/19 AT 06 UTC 17.01N / 87.0E MAX WIND 120 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 62 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 EG E: SW/W 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 TO 68 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 TO 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 65 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 73 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 65 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 73 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 93 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 93 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 19 DEG N: CYCLONIC 120/130 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 13 DEG N: CYCLONIC 95/125 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2020-05-18 10:40

WTIN01 DEMS 181030
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1000 UTC 18 MAY 2020.



PART-I STORM WARNING



SUB:-EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN)
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL.




THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN)
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL
 MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 2 KNOTS DURING PAST 06
HOURS, INTENSIFIED FURTHER INTO A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY

CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 18TH MAY, 2020 OVER WEST CENTRAL
 AND ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE
NEAR 13.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 86.2 DEG E, ABOUT 770 KM NEARLY SOUTH
OF PARADIP (42976), 920 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901) AND 1040
KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
 NEARLY NORTHWARDS FOR SOME MORE TIME AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS
 ACROSS NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND CROSS WEST BENGAL  BANGLADESH
 COASTS BETWEEN DIGHA (42901) AND HATIYA ISLANDS (41963) CLOSE TO
 SUNDARBANS DURING 0900-1200 UTC OF 20TH MAY 2020 AS AN EXTREMELY
 SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 165-175
KMPH GUSTING TO 185 KMPH (.)



THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO
 110 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
 THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 HPA (.)



12 HRS VALID 2020/05/18 AT 18 UTC 15.2N / 86.5E MAX WIND 125 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/05/19 AT 06 UTC 17.01N / 87.0E MAX WIND 120 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)



PART-II NIL (.)



ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER:1)E OF 62 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 EG E: SW/W 10/20 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E :4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.5 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF

65 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 TO 68 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 TO 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF

60 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 65 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)

2)E OF 73 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 65 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)

2)E OF 73 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80

DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG

E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 93 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 93 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 19 DEG N: CYCLONIC 120/130 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA:S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 13 DEG N: CYCLONIC 95/125 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS(.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2020-05-18 08:03

WTIO51 PGTW 180900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200518071338
2020051806 01B AMPHAN     009  01 360 06 SATL 015
T000 136N 0864E 140 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 125 SE QD 160 SW QD 145 NW QD
T012 149N 0867E 145 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 165N 0871E 130 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 186N 0878E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 210N 0885E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 252N 0899E 030
AMP
    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 86.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 86.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 14.9N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.5N 87.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 18.6N 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 21.0N 88.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 25.2N 89.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 86.5E.
18MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301
NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051718 126N 865E 115
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051806 136N 864E 140
0120051806 136N 864E 140
0120051806 136N 864E 140
NNNN

>

2020-05-18 08:00

WTIO31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 86.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 86.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 14.9N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.5N 87.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 18.6N 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 21.0N 88.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 25.2N 89.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 86.5E.
18MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301
NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-05-18 07:38

WTIN01 DEMS 180737
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0600 UTC 18 MAY 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

SUB:-EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN)
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL.

THE EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORMAMPHAN? (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN)
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL
MOVED NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 4 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS AND LAY
CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 18TH MAY, 2020 OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 13.3
DEG N AND LONGITUDE 86.3 DEG E, ABOUT 780 KM NEARLY SOUTH OF PARADIP
(42976), 930KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIGHA (42901) AND 1050 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
FURTHER INTO A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 6 HOURS.IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHWARDS FOR SOMETIMES AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS
ACROSS NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND CROSS WEST BENGAL AND BANGLADESH
COASTS BETWEEN DIGHA (42901) AND HATIYA ISLANDS (41963) DURING
0900-1200 UTC OF 20TH MAY 2020 AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEDD OF 85-90 KTS GUSTING TO 100 KTS (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO
110 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/05/18 AT 15 UTC 14.9 N / 86.5 E MAX WIND 125 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2020/05/19 AT 03 UTC 16.0 N / 86.9 E MAX WIND 125 KTS
SUPER CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 62 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 62 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 EG E: SW/W 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E :FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E :4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 TO 68 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 15 DEG N TO E OF 56 TO 68 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW/W-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 05/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
60 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 65 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)E OF 73 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 65 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)
2)E OF 73 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 93 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 93 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 19 DEG N: CYCLONIC 120/125 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA:S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)N OF 13 DEG N: CYCLONIC 120/125 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: SW-LY 20/30 KTS(.)
II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 14 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR (.)
-----------
TOO:-18/1230 EF
ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2020-05-18 02:24

WTIO51 PGTW 180300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200518011112
2020051800 01B AMPHAN     008  01 335 04 SATL 015
T000 130N 0864E 130 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 155 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 141N 0865E 130 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 157N 0870E 125 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 177N 0877E 120 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 201N 0885E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 246N 0901E 055
T096 263N 0911E 015
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 86.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 86.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 14.1N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 15.7N 87.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 17.7N 87.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 20.1N 88.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 24.6N 90.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 26.3N 91.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 86.4E.
18MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 51 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 866E 115
0120051718 126N 866E 115
0120051718 126N 866E 115
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
0120051800 130N 864E 130
NNNN

>

2020-05-18 02:23

WTIO31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 13.0N 86.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 86.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 14.1N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 15.7N 87.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 17.7N 87.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 20.1N 88.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 24.6N 90.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 26.3N 91.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 86.4E.
18MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 10 NM ROUND EYE. THE EIR, SUPPORTED
BY A SLIGHTLY TILTED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 37 AND 89 GHZ
CHANNELS IN A 172336Z SSMIS PASS, PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, WHICH WAS HEDGED TOWARD THE 37 GHZ CHANNELS
SOLUTION. THE 130 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS JUST BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KTS), BASED ON LOWER CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES. ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE SUPPORT THE HIGH INTENSITY. TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER). THAT GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY STRONG UNTIL
LANDFALL, AROUND TAU 60, WITH SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING VWS BEFORE LANDFALL. TC 01B SHOULD DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION PRIOR TO TAU 96 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. NAVGEM IS A SLIGHT WESTERN
OUTLIER AND GALWEM AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SLIGHT EASTERN
OUTLIERS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. AFTER TAU 72, MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKERS STRUGGLE TO FOLLOW THE VORTEX AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS A
BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE FEW MODELS THAT CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
VORTEX THROUGH TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS
51 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-17 20:24

WTIO51 PGTW 172100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200517193657
2020051718 01B AMPHAN     007  01 020 06 SATL 010
T000 126N 0866E 115 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 155 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 138N 0867E 120 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 151N 0870E 125 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 168N 0876E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 190N 0883E 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 238N 0897E 060
T096 253N 0900E 025
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 86.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 86.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 13.8N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 15.1N 87.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.8N 87.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 19.0N 88.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 23.8N 89.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 25.3N 90.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 86.6E.
17MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 609 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051718 126N 866E 115
0120051718 126N 866E 115
0120051718 126N 866E 115
NNNN

>

2020-05-17 20:22

WTIO31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 86.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 86.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 13.8N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 15.1N 87.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.8N 87.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 19.0N 88.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 23.8N 89.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 25.3N 90.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 86.6E.
17MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 609
NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 10 NM RAGGED EYE IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ALIGNS WITH THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS). ROBUST RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (31-32
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SUPPORT THE SIGNIFICANT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS (50 KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE INCREASE). TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THE
CYCLONE WILL FOLLOW THE NER POLEWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 60.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY SHOULD FALL
CONSIDERABLY AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO TAU 96. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GALWEM SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-17 13:43

WTIN01 DEMS 171335
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1200 UTC 17 MAY 2020.



PART-I  STORM WARNING



THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER CENTRAL
 PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD MOVED SLOWLY
NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 03 KNOTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, FURTHER
INTENSIFIED INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY CENTRED AT
0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 17TH MAY, 2020 OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH
BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 86.0 DEG E,
ABOUT 960 KM SOUTH OF PARADIP (ODISHA), 1110 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
DIGHA (WEST BENGAL) AND 1230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA
(BANGLADESH). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO AN
EXTREMELY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS SLOWLY DURING NEXT 12 HOURS AND
THEN RE-CURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND MOVE FAST ACROSS NORTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL AND CROSS WEST BENGAL \U2013 BANGLADESH COASTS
BETWEEN DIGHA (WEST BENGAL) AND HATIYA ISLANDS (BANGLADESH) DURING
THE AFTERNOON / EVENING OF 20TH MAY 2020 AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM.



THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO
65 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 HPA (.)



12 HRS VALID 2020/05/17 AT 18 UTC 12.9 N / 86.0 E MAX WIND 65 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/05/18 AT 06 UTC 14.0 N / 86.0 E MAX WIND 75 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)



PART-II NIL (.)



ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 15/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER:1)E OF 58 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 58 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 EG E: SW/W 10/20 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 62 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 62 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 2.0-4.5 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : W/NW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC

W/NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF 66 DEG E (.)

2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF

65 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 70 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W-LY 10/20 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/20 KTS

TO THE E OF 65 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 65 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)

2)E OF 73 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 65 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)

2)E OF 73 DEG E: 6-4 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80

DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG

E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: W/SW-LY 20/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 19 DEG N: CYCLONIC 65/85 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA:S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: CYCLONIC 85/95KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: OVER 14.0 MTR


ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

2020-05-17 13:18

WTIO51 PGTW 171500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200517125458
2020051712 01B AMPHAN     006  01 010 06 SATL 015
T000 120N 0864E 075 R064 015 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 075 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 120 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 131N 0865E 085 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 143N 0866E 095 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 158N 0870E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 170 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 176N 0875E 110 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 221N 0889E 075 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 251N 0894E 030
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 86.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 86.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 13.1N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 14.3N 86.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 15.8N 87.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 17.6N 87.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.1N 88.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 25.1N 89.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 86.4E.
17MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.
//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
0120051712 120N 864E  75
NNNN

>

2020-05-17 13:18

WTIO31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 86.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 86.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 13.1N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 14.3N 86.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 15.8N 87.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 17.6N 87.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.1N 88.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 25.1N 89.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 86.4E.
17MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
380 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM (OVER 600NM ACROSS) WITH
A RAGGED 10-NM CLOUD FILLED EYE AND EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPING
TIGHTER TOWARD THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE ADJUSTED FOR SLANT AND LINED
UP WITH A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 171057Z SSMIS IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KTS FROM
PGTW. THE CYCLONE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A
STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS (31C+) ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. TC AMPHAN
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD IN THE BAY OF BENGAL ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST.
AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE NER
RECEDES. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO
A PEAK OF 110KTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 75KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA. AFTER LANDFALL, EXTREMELY RUGGED
TERRAIN, IN ADDITION TO HIGH VWS, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. GLOBAL NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-17 09:01

WTIN01 DEMS 170900
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0400 UTC 17 MAY 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER SOUTHEAST

THE CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER SOUTHEAST BAY
OF
BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. THE CYCLONIC STORM \U2018AMPHAN\U2019
(PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH SPEED OF 03 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS,
INTENSFIIED SLIGHTLY AND LAY CENTRED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0000 UTC
OF17TH MAY, 2020 NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 86.0 DEG E,
ABOUT 990 KM SOUTH OF PARADIP (42976), 1140 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
DIGHA (42901) AND 1260 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING
NEXT 06 HOURS AND INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING SUBSIQUENT
12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 24
HOURS AND THENRE-CURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS NORTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL AND CROSS WEST BENGAL AND BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN SAGAR
ISLANDS (42903)AND HATIYA ISLANDS(41963)AROUND 0900-1200 UTC OF 20TH
MAY 2020AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGHAROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/05/17 AT 12 UTC 12.5 N / 85.8 E MAX WIND 50 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2020/05/18 AT 00 UTC 13.7 N / 86.0 E MAX WIND 65 KTS
VERY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 EG E: SW/W 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 66 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
64 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 71 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 71 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 71 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 71 DEG E: 6-4 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE E OF 65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 68 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 68 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 30/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 40/50 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: SE-LY 15/25 KTS BEC
CYCLONIC 50/55 KTS TO THE W OF 92 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE N OF 20 DEG
N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW-LY 15/25 KTS BEC
CYCLONIC 60/80 KTS TO THE W OF 91 DEG E(.)
2)REST AREA:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

>

2020-05-17 08:23

WTIO51 PGTW 170900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200517073030
2020051706 01B AMPHAN     005  01 360 04 SATL 020
T000 114N 0863E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 065 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 110 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 125N 0864E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 136N 0865E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 149N 0867E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 166N 0873E 105 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 207N 0886E 080 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 240N 0893E 030
AMP
    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 11.4N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 12.5N 86.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 13.6N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 14.9N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.6N 87.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 20.7N 88.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 24.0N 89.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 86.3E.
17MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.
//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051700 110N 863E  60
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
0120051706 114N 863E  65
NNNN

>

2020-05-17 08:23

WTIO31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 11.4N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 12.5N 86.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 13.6N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 14.9N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.6N 87.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 20.7N 88.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 24.0N 89.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 86.3E.
17MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
365 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM (OVER 600NM ACROSS) WITH AN
EVOLVING EYE AND EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPING CLOSER TOWARD THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EVOLVING EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR SLANT AND LINED UP WITH A
CLUSTER OF WARM PIXELS IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION EVIDENT ON THE
170600Z IRBD IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW. THE CYCLONE IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SSTS (31C+)ARE
HIGHLY CONDUCIVE. TC AMPHAN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD IN THE
BAY OF BENGAL ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE NER RECEDES. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL FUEL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS AROUND TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 80KTS BY TAU
72 BEFORE LANDFALL JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA. AFTER LANDFALL,
EXTREMELY RUGGED TERRAIN, IN ADDITION TO HIGH VWS, WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
THE CYCLONE LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z,
180300Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-17 05:02

WTIN01 DEMS 170500
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 0400 UTC 17 MAY 2020.

PART-I STORM WARNING

THE CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER SOUTHEAST

THE CYCLONIC STORM AMPHAN (PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER SOUTHEAST BAY
OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD. THE CYCLONIC STORM \U2018AMPHAN\U2019
(PRONOUNCED AS UM-PUN) OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND NEIGHBOURHOOD
MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH SPEED OF 03 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS,
INTENSFIIED SLIGHTLY AND LAY CENTRED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0000 UTC
OF17TH MAY, 2020 NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 86.0 DEG E,
ABOUT 990 KM SOUTH OF PARADIP (42976), 1140 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
DIGHA (42901) AND 1260 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KHEPUPARA (41984). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING
NEXT 06 HOURS AND INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING SUBSIQUENT
12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS DURING NEXT 24
HOURS AND THENRE-CURVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS NORTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL AND CROSS WEST BENGAL AND BANGLADESH COASTS BETWEEN SAGAR
ISLANDS (42903)AND HATIYA ISLANDS(41963)AROUND 0900-1200 UTC OF 20TH
MAY 2020AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY HIGHAROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA (.)

12 HRS VALID 2020/05/17 AT 12 UTC 12.5 N / 85.8 E MAX WIND 50 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)
24 HRS VALID 2020/05/18 AT 00 UTC 13.7 N / 86.0 E MAX WIND 65 KTS
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)

PART-II NIL (.)

ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)
A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 60 DEG E: SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER:1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: SCATTERED RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 6-4NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-3.0 MTR (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 EG E: SW/W 10/20 KTS (.)
2)REST AREA: NW/W-LY 20/25 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 65 DEG E :WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 65 DEG E :3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-3.5 MTR (.)

ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E
TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)
A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:1)N OF 20 DEG N : SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC
W/NW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE E OF 66 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/15 KTS TO THE E OF
64 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 71 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS
(.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 71 DEG E: SCATTERED RA/TS(.)
3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 14 DEG N TO E OF 71 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)
2)S OF 18 DEG N TO W OF 71 DEG E: 6-4 NM(.)
3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS BEC NW-LY 10/20 KTS
TO THE E OF 65 DEG E (.)
II)WEATHER:1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 68 DEG E:FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 16 DEG N TO E OF 57 TO 68 DEG E:4-3 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.0-2.5 MTR (.)

BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80
DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG
E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)
A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 30/40 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 3.5-4.5 MTR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 40/50 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 3-2 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 4.0-6.0 MTR (.)

BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)
A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: SE-LY 15/25 KTS BEC
CYCLONIC 50/55 KTS TO THE W OF 92 DEG E (.)
2)REST AREA:SE/S-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW-LY 05/15 KTS TO THE N OF 20 DEG
N (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 18 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 6.0-14.0 MTR (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS
I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: SW-LY 15/25 KTS BEC
CYCLONIC 60/80 KTS TO THE W OF 91 DEG E(.)
2)REST AREA:SE/S-LY 10/15 KTS (.)
II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)
2)REST AREA: FAIR (.)
III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N: 3-2 NM (.)
2)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)
IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 9.0-14.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (.)=

>

2020-05-17 02:03

WTIO51 PGTW 170300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200517014223
2020051700 01B AMPHAN     004  01 045 03 SATL 020
T000 109N 0863E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 095 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 119N 0865E 070 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 130N 0865E 080 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 143N 0867E 090 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 158N 0872E 100 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 180 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 197N 0887E 105 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 210 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 237N 0902E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 267N 0915E 030
AMP
    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 11.9N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 13.0N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 14.3N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 15.8N 87.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 19.7N 88.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 23.7N 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 26.7N 91.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 86.3E.
17MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 712 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051618 107N 861E  50
0120051700 109N 863E  60
0120051700 109N 863E  60
NNNN

>

2020-05-17 02:03

WTIO31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 11.9N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 13.0N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 14.3N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 15.8N 87.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 19.7N 88.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 23.7N 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 26.7N 91.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 86.3E.
17MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 712 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 162347Z SSMIS 37 AND 89 GHZ CHANNELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS ALIGNS WITH THE 162345Z CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 59 KTS, WELL ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW-TO-MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT STRONGLY SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. TC 01B IS TRACKING BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY POLEWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 84. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW STEADY-TO-RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 105 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-16 20:18

WTIO51 PGTW 162100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200516194533
2020051618 01B AMPHAN     003  01 025 07 SATL 030
T000 109N 0863E 045 R034 050 NE QD 090 SE QD 105 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 119N 0864E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 131N 0865E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 144N 0867E 090 R064 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 157N 0869E 095 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 195N 0883E 105 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 236N 0898E 060 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 259N 0902E 030
AMP
    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 10.9N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 11.9N 86.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 13.1N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 14.4N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 15.7N 86.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 19.5N 88.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 23.6N 89.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 25.9N 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 86.3E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 712 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 859E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
0120051618 109N 863E  45
NNNN

>

2020-05-16 20:17

WTIO31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 10.9N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 11.9N 86.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 13.1N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 14.4N 86.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 15.7N 86.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 19.5N 88.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 23.6N 89.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 25.9N 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 86.3E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 712 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE RAIN BANDS IN A 161554Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE HELPED ESTABLISH THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BASED ON 45 KT WIND BARBS NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN A 161556Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND A 161553Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS INFORMED THE 34-KT WIND RADII ESTIMATES. WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 01B IS TRACKING BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST AND A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AROUND TAU 48, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND REMAIN ON THAT TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND TAU 84. THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND A PEAK OF 105 KTS BY TAU 72 IS EXPECTED. LANDFALL WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 120. WITH SPREAD OF AROUND 275 NM AT TAU 120, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-05-16 13:42

WTIO31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 86.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 86.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 11.3N 86.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 12.5N 86.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 13.7N 86.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 15.1N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 18.7N 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 23.1N 89.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 24.8N 89.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 86.0E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z
IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-05-16 13:39

WTIO51 PGTW 161500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200516130001
2020051612 01B ONE        002  01 360 03 SATL 025
T000 103N 0860E 040 R034 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 113N 0860E 050 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 125N 0861E 065 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 137N 0862E 075 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 151N 0865E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 180 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 187N 0878E 080 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 231N 0893E 050 R034 140 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 248N 0899E 030
AMP
    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 86.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 86.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 11.3N 86.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 12.5N 86.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 13.7N 86.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 15.1N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 18.7N 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 23.1N 89.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 24.8N 89.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 86.0E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  91N 867E  20
0120051518  94N 863E  25
0120051600  97N 861E  30
0120051606 100N 860E  35
0120051612 103N 860E  40
NNNN

>

2020-05-16 08:49

WTIO51 PGTW 160900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 01B NIO 200516074712
2020051606 01B ONE        001  01 340 03 SATL 030
T000 098N 0864E 035 R034 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 105N 0864E 050 R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 117N 0865E 065 R064 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 129N 0865E 075 R064 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 142N 0866E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 176N 0878E 090 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 218N 0892E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 248N 0906E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 9.8N 86.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 86.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 10.5N 86.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 11.7N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 12.9N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 14.2N 86.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 17.6N 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 21.8N 89.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 24.8N 90.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 86.4E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
//
0120051506  87N 872E  20
0120051512  89N 869E  20
0120051518  92N 866E  25
0120051600  95N 865E  30
0120051606  98N 864E  35
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>

2020-05-16 08:49

WTIO31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 9.8N 86.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 86.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 10.5N 86.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 11.7N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 12.9N 86.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 14.2N 86.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 17.6N 87.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 21.8N 89.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 24.8N 90.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 86.4E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 12 FEET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION THAT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE,
CHARACTERIZED BY EXPANSIVE (OVER 600NM ACROSS) RAIN BANDS . THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FR0M A 160309Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY BUOY WIND OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (31C) SSTS. THE CYCLONE WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, THE TC WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR  WEAKENS. VWS WILL INCREASE AS THE TC MOVES
POLEWARD, HOWEVER, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOTION BEING
IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL EASILY OFFSET THE VWS.
THIS, COMBINED WITH VERY WARM SST WILL PROMOTED STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90KTS. AFTERWARD, TC 01B WILL MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA AROUND TAU 96. LAND INTERACTION
WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE ITS RAPID DECAY AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE REDUCED
TO 30KTS AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL TRACK FORECAST FROM JTWC. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
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