Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ELOISE-21 in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC to 18:00

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21

in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

17 Jan 2021 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
Exposed population	1 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (20 Jan 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Mozambique)
Landfall	between 19 Jan 2021 18:00 - 20 Jan 2021 18:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	111 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

111 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
	1	17 Jan 2021 06:00	102	3.1 million	No people	Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
	2	17 Jan 2021 18:00	111	3.2 million	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	17 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-12.6, 62.1
2	17 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.2, 59.6
2	18 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.5, 57.2
2	18 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.3, 54.9
2	19 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	330000 people	-15, 53
2	19 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	2.2 million people	-15.6, 51.1
2	20 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	2 million people	-16, 48	Madagascar
2	21 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	96000 people	-17.7, 43.9	Madagascar
2	22 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-20, 40

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Antsiranana	Madagascar
Toamasina	Madagascar
Mahajanga	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Antalaha	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	34000 people
Andapa	Antsiranana	Madagascar	City	20000 people
Maroantsetra	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	24000 people
Mananara	Toamasina	Madagascar	City	41000 people
Mandritsara	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	-
Marovoay	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	31000 people
Ambato Boeni	Mahajanga	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Antalaha Antsirabato	ANM	6	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Andapa	ZWA	473	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Maroantsetra	WMN	4	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Mananara Nord	WMR	3	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Mandritsara	WMA	307	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3700
Befandriana	WBD	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100
Anahidrano		60				0
Port Berge	WPB	65	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4200
Tsaratanana	TTS	327	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4300
Madirovalo	WMV	unknown				0
Ambatomainty	AMY	unknown				0
Morafenobe	TVA	unknown				0
Besalampy	BPY	38	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Tambohorano	WTA	7	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Maintirano	MXT	30	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4200

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Antataha	MGANM	Madagascar
Maroantsetra	MGWMN	Madagascar
Mananara	MGWMR	Madagascar
Saint Mary Island		Madagascar
Maintirano	MGMXT	Madagascar

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Ambilivily		1954
	Amboromalandy		1934

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Ambanizana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 20 Jan 2021 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (53 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 17 Jan 2021 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.5
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.5
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.5
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.5
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.5
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.4
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 23:00	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 23:00	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 00:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 01:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.3
	20 Jan 2021 01:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.3
	19 Jan 2021 23:00	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 21:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.2
	19 Jan 2021 21:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 05:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	18 Jan 2021 19:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 05:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 04:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 03:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 21:00	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 05:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 05:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 06:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 06:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 Jan 2021 19:00	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 06:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 05:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 02:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 05:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	20 Jan 2021 06:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.