Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GUAMBE-21
in Mozambique

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GUAMBE-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (19 Feb 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 102 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

102 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.6 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 17 Feb 2021 18:00 148 2.2 million 60 thousand Mozambique
Green 2 18 Feb 2021 06:00 157 2.2 million No people Mozambique
Green 3 18 Feb 2021 18:00 157 2.1 million No people Mozambique
Green 4 19 Feb 2021 06:00 176 1.8 million No people Mozambique
Green 5 19 Feb 2021 18:00 176 1.7 million No people Mozambique
Green 6 20 Feb 2021 00:00 139 1.7 million No people Mozambique
Green 7 20 Feb 2021 12:00 139 1.7 million No people Mozambique
Green 8 21 Feb 2021 00:00 130 1.7 million No people Mozambique
Green 9 21 Feb 2021 12:00 83 1.7 million No people Mozambique
Green 10 22 Feb 2021 00:00 102 1.7 million No people Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 17 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 92000 people no people -21.9, 37.5
GREEN
2 18 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 77000 people no people -22.6, 37.7
GREEN
3 18 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 1.2 million people no people -23.6, 37.3
GREEN
4 19 Feb 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 1.5 million people no people -24.6, 36.8
GREEN
5 19 Feb 2021 18:00 Category 2 157 1.4 million people no people -25.2, 36.4
GREEN
6 20 Feb 2021 00:00 Category 1 139 920000 people no people -25.7, 36.3
GREEN
7 20 Feb 2021 12:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -26.5, 36.5
GREEN
8 21 Feb 2021 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -28.6, 37.6
GREEN
9 21 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -30.9, 39.2
GREEN
10 22 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -34, 44.9
GREEN
10 22 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -38.4, 54.1
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mozambique

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Inhambane Mozambique 1.3 million people
Gaza Mozambique 1.3 million people
Sofala Mozambique 1.4 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Maxixe Mozambique City 110000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Inhambane INH 9 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
Vilanculos VNX 14 Civ. Paved Yes 4800

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Inhambane MZINH Mozambique
Vilanculas Mozambique
Bazaruto Island Mozambique
Bartolomeo Diaz Mozambique

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Siane, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 19 Feb 2021 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (59 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 22 Feb 2021 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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