Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for GUAMBE-21 in Mozambique from 17 Feb 2021 18:00 UTC to 22 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for GUAMBE-21

in Mozambique

22 Feb 2021 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GUAMBE-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mozambique
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (19 Feb 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	102 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	157 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

102 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.7 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	17 Feb 2021 18:00	148	2.2 million	60 thousand	Mozambique
2	18 Feb 2021 06:00	157	2.2 million	No people	Mozambique
3	18 Feb 2021 18:00	157	2.1 million	No people	Mozambique
4	19 Feb 2021 06:00	176	1.8 million	No people	Mozambique
5	19 Feb 2021 18:00	176	1.7 million	No people	Mozambique
6	20 Feb 2021 00:00	139	1.7 million	No people	Mozambique
7	20 Feb 2021 12:00	139	1.7 million	No people	Mozambique
8	21 Feb 2021 00:00	130	1.7 million	No people	Mozambique
9	21 Feb 2021 12:00	83	1.7 million	No people	Mozambique
10	22 Feb 2021 00:00	102	1.7 million	No people	Mozambique

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	17 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	93000 people	-21.9, 37.5
2	18 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	78000 people	-22.6, 37.7
3	18 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.3 million people	-23.6, 37.3
4	19 Feb 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	1.6 million people	-24.6, 36.8
5	19 Feb 2021 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	1.5 million people	-25.2, 36.4
6	20 Feb 2021 00:00	Category 1	139	no people	920000 people	-25.7, 36.3
7	20 Feb 2021 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-26.5, 36.5
8	21 Feb 2021 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	-28.6, 37.6
9	21 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-30.9, 39.2
10	22 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-34, 44.9
10	22 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-38.4, 54.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.