Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-21 in Mexico from 13 Aug 2021 15:00 UTC to 21 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for GRACE-21

in Mexico

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GRACE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	7.7 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	194 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1 m (20 Aug 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 21 Aug 2021 03:00 - 21 Aug 2021 09:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	37 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	194 km/h	1.0 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

TOP

Wind

37 km/h Current Max.

Up to 63.5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	13 Aug 2021 15:00	83	18.8 million	No people	Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, Cuba
2	13 Aug 2021 21:00	74	20.4 million	No people	Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, Cuba
3	14 Aug 2021 03:00	83	8.4 million	No people	Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Virgin Islands British, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas
4	14 Aug 2021 09:00	83	14.8 million	No people	Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas
5	14 Aug 2021 15:00	93	29.8 million	No people	Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Virgin Islands British, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, Cuba, United States
6	14 Aug 2021 21:00	93	31.7 million	No people	Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, United States
7	15 Aug 2021 03:00	83	28.8 million	No people	Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Virgin Islands U.S., Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, Cuba, United States
8	15 Aug 2021 09:00	83	31.3 million	No people	Saint Kitts and Nevis, Puerto Rico, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, Cuba, United States
9	15 Aug 2021 15:00	83	24.1 million	No people	Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Haiti, Bahamas, Cuba, United States
10	15 Aug 2021 21:00	83	450 thousand	No people	Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe
11	16 Aug 2021 03:00	83	450 thousand	No people	Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe
12	16 Aug 2021 09:00	93	9.1 million	No people	Cuba, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Cayman Islands, Mexico
13	16 Aug 2021 15:00	111	13.9 million	No people	Cuba, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Cayman Islands, Mexico
14	16 Aug 2021 21:00	120	15.5 million	No people	Cuba, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Mexico
15	17 Aug 2021 03:00	120	14.5 million	No people	Jamaica, Cuba, Cayman Islands, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe, Mexico
16	17 Aug 2021 09:00	111	18.8 million	No people	Jamaica, Cayman Islands, Mexico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Guadeloupe
17	17 Aug 2021 15:00	120	38 million	400 thousand	Mexico
18	17 Aug 2021 21:00	139	29.9 million	340 thousand	Mexico
19	18 Aug 2021 03:00	148	36.4 million	390 thousand	Mexico
20	18 Aug 2021 09:00	139	52.3 million	210 thousand	Mexico
21	18 Aug 2021 15:00	139	62.9 million	1.5 million	Mexico
22	18 Aug 2021 21:00	139	53.2 million	4 million	Mexico
23	19 Aug 2021 03:00	139	30.4 million	3.2 million	Mexico
24	19 Aug 2021 09:00	130	54.4 million	1 million	Mexico
25	19 Aug 2021 15:00	139	54 million	2.3 million	Mexico
26	19 Aug 2021 21:00	139	51.9 million	9.4 million	Mexico
27	20 Aug 2021 03:00	139	52.8 million	1.7 million	Mexico
28	20 Aug 2021 09:00	139	59.3 million	4.4 million	Mexico
29	20 Aug 2021 15:00	167	58.3 million	2.1 million	Mexico
30	20 Aug 2021 21:00	167	56.6 million	2.6 million	Mexico
31	21 Aug 2021 03:00	194	57.3 million	3.7 million	Mexico
32	21 Aug 2021 09:00	176	61.7 million	3.7 million	Mexico
33	21 Aug 2021 15:00	111	65.5 million	7.7 million	Mexico
34	21 Aug 2021 21:00	37	63.5 million	7.7 million	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	13 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.3, -49.3
2	13 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.4, -51.8
3	14 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.5, -53.8
4	14 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.8, -55.6
5	14 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	16.2, -57.9
6	14 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	430000 people	15.9, -60.7
7	15 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	110000 people	16.8, -62.4	Montserrat
8	15 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	510000 people	16.9, -64.4
9	15 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	400000 people	17.2, -66
10	15 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17, -67.3
11	16 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.3, -68.6
12	16 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.4, -70.2
13	16 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.7, -71.4	Dominican Republic
14	16 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	17.9, -72.4
15	17 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	280000 people	18.2, -73.8	Haiti
16	17 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	2.8 million people	18.2, -75.4
17	17 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	3 million people	18.3, -76.8	Jamaica
18	17 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	2.8 million people	18.4, -77.9	Jamaica
19	18 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	920000 people	18.4, -79.2
20	18 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	57000 people	18.8, -80.9
21	18 Aug 2021 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	55000 people	19.4, -82.2
22	18 Aug 2021 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	1.3 million people	19.7, -83.7
23	19 Aug 2021 03:00	Category 1	130	92000 people	3.8 million people	19.8, -85.6
24	19 Aug 2021 09:00	Category 1	130	420000 people	4.3 million people	20, -87.2
25	19 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	3.5 million people	20.2, -88.8	Mexico
26	19 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	3.1 million people	20.6, -90.2	Mexico
27	20 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2.3 million people	20.8, -91.8
28	20 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	3.9 million people	20.7, -93.3
29	20 Aug 2021 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	11.3 million people	20.6, -94.3
30	20 Aug 2021 21:00	Category 1	148	26000 people	17.1 million people	20.5, -95.1
31	21 Aug 2021 03:00	Category 3	194	1.2 million people	19.7 million people	20.7, -96.3
32	21 Aug 2021 09:00	Category 2	176	3 million people	45.8 million people	20.5, -97.8	Mexico
33	21 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	50.5 million people	19.7, -98.9	Mexico
34	21 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	19.6, -100.1	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

TOP

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

TOP

StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.