Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for BATSIRAI-22 in Madagascar from 27 Jan 2022 00:00 UTC to 02 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22

in Madagascar

02 Feb 2022 06 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
1 min - 10 min
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact
10 min
1 min

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Glide number:	TC-2022-000160-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	1.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	211 km/h (1-min*)
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (05 Feb 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 05 Feb 2022 06:00 - 05 Feb 2022 18:00 in Madagascar
* GDACS: 1-min sustained winds; WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France: 10-min average

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind (1-min*)	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	211 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	211 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: latest forecast, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind
10 min
1 min

Impact Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h) (1-min*)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	26 Jan 2022 12:00	63	No people	No people
2	26 Jan 2022 18:00	137	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
3	27 Jan 2022 00:00	137	20 thousand	No people	Mauritius
4	27 Jan 2022 06:00	106	No people	No people
5	27 Jan 2022 12:00	190	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
6	27 Jan 2022 18:00	158	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
7	28 Jan 2022 00:00	116	40 thousand	No people	Mauritius
8	28 Jan 2022 06:00	127	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
9	28 Jan 2022 12:00	148	1.3 million	1.1 million	Mauritius
10	28 Jan 2022 18:00	148	1.9 million	30 thousand	Mauritius
11	29 Jan 2022 00:00	148	1.1 million	No people	Mauritius
12	29 Jan 2022 06:00	148	1.7 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
13	29 Jan 2022 12:00	211	140 thousand	No people	Mauritius
14	29 Jan 2022 18:00	190	440 thousand	No people	Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
15	30 Jan 2022 00:00	190	80 thousand	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
16	30 Jan 2022 06:00	201	No people	No people
17	30 Jan 2022 12:00	201	No people	No people
18	30 Jan 2022 18:00	232	2.3 million	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
19	31 Jan 2022 00:00	243	11.6 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
20	31 Jan 2022 06:00	232	11.4 million	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
21	31 Jan 2022 12:00	232	9 million	No people	Mauritius, Madagascar
22	31 Jan 2022 18:00	201	12.1 million	90 thousand	Madagascar
23	01 Feb 2022 00:00	190	13.4 million	710 thousand	Madagascar
24	01 Feb 2022 06:00	211	15.3 million	1.5 million	Madagascar
25	01 Feb 2022 12:00	201	15.4 million	830 thousand	Madagascar
26	01 Feb 2022 18:00	211	17.6 million	840 thousand	Madagascar
27	02 Feb 2022 00:00	211	18.3 million	2 million	Madagascar
28	02 Feb 2022 06:00	211	17.3 million	1.9 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline
10 min
1 min

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h) (1-min*)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	26 Jan 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	-14.9, 86.6
2	26 Jan 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	-15.7, 85.3
3	27 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	-16.4, 83.6
4	27 Jan 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	-16.9, 81.8
5	27 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 3	190	no people	no people	-17.9, 79.6
6	27 Jan 2022 18:00	Category 2	158	no people	no people	-18, 77.5
7	28 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	95	no people	no people	-18, 76
8	28 Jan 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	-18.2, 74.6
9	28 Jan 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-18.3, 73.6
10	28 Jan 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-18.4, 72.6
11	29 Jan 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	-18.4, 71.8
12	29 Jan 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	-18.1, 70.6
13	29 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 1	127	no people	no people	-17.9, 69.9
14	29 Jan 2022 18:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-17.7, 69.1
15	30 Jan 2022 00:00	Category 2	169	no people	no people	-17.5, 68.1
16	30 Jan 2022 06:00	Category 2	169	no people	no people	-17.1, 67
17	30 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 2	169	no people	no people	-16.8, 66.1
18	30 Jan 2022 18:00	Category 2	169	no people	no people	-16.6, 65.1
19	31 Jan 2022 00:00	Category 2	169	no people	no people	-16.4, 64.5
20	31 Jan 2022 06:00	Category 2	169	no people	no people	-15.8, 63.9
21	31 Jan 2022 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	-15.9, 63.2
22	31 Jan 2022 18:00	Category 1	137	no people	no people	-16, 63
23	01 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	137	no people	no people	-16.5, 62.3
24	01 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 2	158	no people	no people	-16.8, 61.2
25	01 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 2	169	no people	no people	-17.2, 60.2
26	01 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	190	no people	1.1 million people	-17.7, 59.1
27	02 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 4	211	no people	1.3 million people	-18, 58.3
28	02 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 4	211	no people	1.6 million people	-18.5, 57.6
28	02 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	201	no people	1.8 million people	-19.2, 56.1
28	03 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	190	no people	640000 people	-19.6, 54.6
28	03 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	190	no people	no people	-19.6, 53.4
28	04 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	201	no people	1.1 million people	-19.7, 52.1
28	04 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 4	211	420000 people	11 million people	-19.8, 50.8
28	05 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 4	211	1.9 million people	14.6 million people	-20, 49.1
28	05 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	13.3 million people	-20.7, 46.3	Madagascar
28	06 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	1.4 million people	-21.2, 43.6	Madagascar
28	06 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	630000 people	-21.7, 41.6
28	07 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	no people	-22.4, 40

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Antananarivo	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ambositra	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	30000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Vatomandry	VAT	12	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3800
Atsinanana	ILK	10	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3200
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Vatomandry	MGVAT	Madagascar
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Masomeloka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2022 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

The storm surge calculations have been performed using 1 min atmospheric wind forcing

Locations affected by Storm surge (21 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 28 of 02 Feb 2022 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.7
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.6
	05 Feb 2022 07:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2022 09:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2022 07:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.4
	05 Feb 2022 06:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 07:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 07:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 05:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 05:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2022 02:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 05:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 03:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 02:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.1
	06 Feb 2022 06:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2022 08:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Impact 10 min1 min